With Democrats successful recruitment of top-tier Senate candidates in state after state, and indications that Janet Mills will run in Maine – and even rumors that Mary Peltola may run in Alaska – I wonder what our odds are of retaking the Senate in 2026?
Yes, I fully realize this is an uphill battle, a steep one, but it now seems within the realm of possibility.
Anyone have thoughts or care to quantify the odds?
I would prefer if Janet Mills didn't run but I think if the bottom starts to fall out on the economy, especially if he doesn't do anything about the de minimis exemption I think we've got a pretty decent shot. On top of that if "it" actually happens sooner rather than later it could set off a civil war within the Republican Party that we could take advantage of. But we need candidates who actually want the job. I'd say right now it's 40-60.
Rather than rejecting the prospects of a Senate campaign, she has postponed any announcement until November or December. Mills has clearly stated that she is "seriously considering" challenging Susan Collins.
With the caveat that I suck as an election predictor, I still think it's quite an uphill battle to flip Senate seats in Republican states like Texas, Ohio and Alaska, even if Iowa flips, so I figure there's something like a 20% chance.
I suspect that Iowa gives us a much better chance to flip than Texas, Ohio and Alaska because agriculture is a much bigger part of Iowa's economy than the other states and Trump's agenda will be horrible for agriculture. His trade war is provoking retaliatory tariffs and agriculture is a major source of American exports. His attacks on foreign aid and food stamps hurts farmers because American agriculture is the main product that foreign governments spend their foreign aid on and food stamps are spent on American agriculture. The ICE raids are leaving farmers in a position where they will not be able to get anyone to harvest their crops this fall and this will devastate farm country. Finally, Trump's attacks on wind and solar power have also hurt farmers who often rent out their land for windmills and solar panels for extra income. We have already seen major over performance in Iowa special elections and I suspect that any blue wave next fall will hit the GOP harder in Iowa than in most states.
We’re looking good for the potential of retaking the Senate providing the following seats flip:
AK
IA
ME
NC
TX
Democrats need to flip a minimum of four seats in order to retake the Senate with no GOP gains. You could have AK, ME, NC and TX or AK, IA, ME and NC.
I am not including OH in the predictions mainly because Sherrod Brown hasn’t caught up in the polls as of yet. So far, he’s 6% points behind Senator Jon Husted in the latest Emerson poll with more to come in the coming days, weeks and months ahead.
Also, with Dan Osborn running again in the NE-SEN race, this could be one to watch as last year he lost to Senator Deb Fischer by less than 6% points.
Now that the cost of living, inflation and immigration raid issues are blowing up in Trump and the GOP’s face, sentiment could potentially go back to Democrats in the state where races are closer than they were in 2024. Even while Colin Allred lost to Ted Cruz by a tad less than 10% points, the numbers for him could be lower.
Let’s not forget that Biden lost TX to Trump in the 2020 presidential election by less than 6% points.
Ohio will be hard. While Brown is by far our strongest candidate, Husted is the type of boring establishment Republican that thrives in Ohio, and Trump's protectionism is like catnip to dying rust belt areas who still believe that their factories will come back if we ended free trade.
I think basing any predictions on 1 Emerson poll doesn't make sense. OH-Sen figures to be a Lean-R race, and I don't think any of the potential flips in Republican states (not counting NC among them) should get a closer rating, for now, though Iowa is looking more promising.
Those races I am referring to such as AK, IA and TX I am saying mainly because they have good potential based on how Trump in his 2nd term has affected each of the states.
OH is more of a wait and see what happens kind of race but Lean GOP is fair as Sherrod Brown lost to Bernie Moreno by a tad less than 4% points.
I’m mainly referring to how the inflation and immigration issues are affecting the Senate races now that Trump is in office and it’s all on him since he hasn’t fixed the problem.
OH though would be a tougher nut to crack as Trump has moved the state more to the right since his first term as POTUS.
If my 2024 predictions are anything to go by, you should not pay any attention to my thoughts on this.
That said, I’m opinionated, and you asked, so I’ll answer. If everything goes right for the remaining races we don’t yet know who our Democratic nominations are likely to be (best case: Peltola runs in AK, a great nominee in IA vs MAGA AG Bird or far right legislative rep, Talarico passes in TX coupled with Paxton winning the GOP primary and Mills passing in Maine), I’d say we’d have a 30-40% chance of winning a majority.
Less if any of the above scenarios don’t actually happen. We still need a lot to go right for us and the playing field is almost entirely in red states. If tariffs stay, the economy stalls, a recession happens and/or inflation gets out of control I’d bump it to 50% chance, maybe even all the way to a more likely than not outcome. But we need a ton of tailwind to win these seats in these states, a 2018 like wave is probably necessary, maybe even higher.
I actually want Talarico to run for Senate. He’s got the profile that I think can win, and quite frankly I don’t believe Allred can pull it off. I think Joaquin Castro should run for Governor - he’d certainly juice Latino turnout.
Mills, on the other hand, in my opinion is too old and not as exciting as a Platner or similar candidate would be. That’s just my thoughts though.
Yes, Platner may seem refreshing and exciting as a candidate. But in my mind there is only one question: if he is our candidate, can he beat Collins? Count me skeptical. Mills may be old, but she is the only one I see who can defeat Collins.
The thing is, Mills is a bit of a moderate, and Collins has marketed herself as a moderate for some time, whatever her votes. If voters see a moderate incumbent, and a moderate challenger, why would they vote for the challenger when they have the incumbent? Why fight fire with fire? (Both are also quite old to boot.) I can see running a moderate against a MAGA candidate possibly working if the MAGA candidate is too extreme (as voters can contrast a sane, rational person with a deranged Trumper lunatic, and vote from there), but here the two are similar enough that I worry such a strategy would fail.
I think Platner’s policy differences and aesthetic give him what he needs to fight Collins. Is there something about Platner that you feel makes him less likely to beat Collins?
Collins may well have marketed herself as a "moderate", but time and time again, and with few exceptions, she has voted to confirm Trump’s heinous appointments and voted for his incredibly destructive budgets and policies.
I would argue that fewer Mainers than ever are convinced that she is a "moderate incumbent" – so Mills against Collins wouldn’t be a moderate vs a moderate.
We’ve gone with DC Democrats choices for decades now and she’s still in office. Time to try something and someone new. Contrasting a 70 year old with a 70 year old doesn’t work very well. A 40 year old with a 70 year old though, now that’s a contrast fight we can absolutely win.
Regardless though, by November Platner will have sewn up the nomination and may even scare Mills into not running (if she was planning to, which I doubt a lot). When a campaign starts with a bang you need to have the opposition start their own campaign immediately or else their momentum builds too much too quickly to stop.
Talarico comes off to me as someone who’s practically made for TV. He articulates his thoughts well, he offers a Christian counter argument to MAGA Christianity, and he seems like someone who will be able to perform well as a national figure. These are skills that I think fit a Senator well — these races get much more national coverage than most House races, and this particular skill set is one that I think could deliver a Senate win,
Governor is a little different to me. I’ve always seen Governors as Presidents of their state. They have to come in with an explicit agenda, a set of priorities, management skills, etc., almost like a President would but for their state. I have not seen Talarico talk actual policy or management enough in a manner that would fit a Governor role, in my opinion. As Governor, you have to navigate your state’s internal politics as almost a figurehead. See Hochul and her management (or lack thereof) of New York’s various problems and factions as one example — Pritzker too. They become the face of their state. In the Senate, aside from things like diplomatic efforts, ultimately you are one vote. Your vote is important — it determines whether a Dem will lead the Senate, along with what is and isn’t passed — but in the end it’s still just a vote.
I think Talarico has the energy for the Senate. We know he’ll be a reliable vote, he’s clearly a rising star, and his appealing message (enough to convince Joe fucking Rogan) to me screams Senate. I don’t think he can lead a state like he could function as a Senator, but that’s just me. I could be totally wrong too. I’m just saying what I feel.
As for points, I can’t say for certain. But I do think he’d perform better than Allred. Unfortunately, I think Allred being black is a liability in a state with a history like Texas’s on race, and Allred doesn’t really come off to me as someone who has much going for him in terms of image, dynamic, etc. Talarico does in my mind, as I explained.
Yes, because a competitive primary in TX that ends in a May runoff with a 6 month sprint for the nominee is much harder to win than a full year and half campaign in a gigantic and expensive state. Take a look at how MJ Hegar did with the nomination after winning the runoff.
I know she faced Cornyn, but 6 months to build a general election campaign in Texas is impossible for Democrats to overcome a 20 year political infrastructure Republicans have built there. Time is always finite and the most valuable for a campaign to have.
I do think Talarico could be a better candidate than Allred (although his 2024 performance was impressive, maybe it was just an anti-Cruz vote), but not by enough to lose a year of a general election campaign in a still red state.
Mills is going to be hit by this age concern by Democrats and indies imo. The Biden hangover is real and with the very old Trump as president I think age will be a defining issue in 2026 elections. I’d much rather a contrast between a 40 year old working man to Collins who is an old feature and creature of politics.
You have some interesting reflections. Yes, I do wish Mills was 20 or 30 years younger, and I do hope some great young candidate magically appears and steps up to seize the challenge. I want Janet Mills to step up because I don’t see any other credible candidates on the horizon – at least not so far.
PS. The so-called "poll" numbers released by our dear oyster farmer are simply not credible. Heck, not even the DownBallot’s pro team has been able to dig up the source of that poll!
I don’t believe that poll, which I stated so pretty clearly yesterday. I do, however, believe the fundraising, earned media and social media (which is how elections today are won). Every pundit thought Mamdani couldn’t win the nomination until after he creamed Cuomo. If we paid attention just to polling we would’ve looked stupid on election day in that race (as almost all pollsters did). If we paid attention to the unmeasurable factors instead, we would’ve known Mamdani was going to cruise to victory in the primary.
Polling doesn’t matter in primaries, but creating excitement among first time voters, swing voters and/or ordinary party voters does. It’s pretty clear imo with now 2 separate populist economic progressive candidates (and a lesser extent to Fetterman before his stroke) catching fire in their campaigns that this is what fires up our party. Whether this works in swing purple or red districts, well tbd on that and people can rightfully debate it, but blue ones? Pretty undeniable at this point.
One final side note on Platner that I think exemplifies why his campaign has taken the political world by storm. Democrats always ask our candidates “but how will you talk to Trump voters” as if we view them as some alien species never seen before that needs to have a special formula for our party to engage with. Platner’s answer was refreshingly honest and one I think we need to embrace as a party: “I talk to them every day”.
Excellent analysis. Fully agree, especially on talking to Trump voters -- no focus group is going, in my opinion, to appeal to them. A lot of Trump voters voted for Trump foolishly believing he was more honest. If Dems can project honesty, particularly after this whole Epstein saga, we may have an opening, at least in my opinion.
Talarico just has the juice, the best politician to come out of Texas in a long time. But Allred was a pretty strong candidate in 2024 too. He beat Biden by 5.5%, which probably wins him in the state in the 2026 national environment.
They would make a great ticket, especially if you could get Castro to run for AG.
I am carefully watching the final weeks of the campaigning for Norway’s Parliamentary Elections.
Earlier this year, conventional wisdom was that a Conservative-led coalition would be victorious, replacing today’s Labour-led coalition. But much has happened since then.
– The ruling coalition broke, the Centre Party withdrew from government.
– PM Jonas Gahr Støre brough in Jens Stoltenberg as Finance Minister.
– Stoltenberg is a highly-respected former PM and NATO Secretary General.
– The minority government then pursued much-clearer Labour policies.
– The advent of Trump and his extreme and erratic policies has greatly increased the Center-Left’s popularity in Norway, just as Trump did for Canada, Australia, Romania and other countries.
– The Labour Party’s popularity skyrocketed.
– The right-wing Progress Party has surpassed the Conservative Party in the polls.
– Their party leaders, Erna Solberg and Sylvi Lysthaug, are acrimoniously fighting like cat and dog about who should be prime minister if they get a majority.
– For centrist parties who might support Solberg, the thought of Lysthaug as PM is anathema.
– Opinion polls now indicate that Labour and allied parties hold a slight edge.
– Several parties, both Left, Centrist and Right-wing (by Norwegian standards) find themselves at the threshold, raising uncertainty whether they’ll make it into Parliament.
Which parties climb above or fall below the threshold may well decide whether Norway will have a Center-Left or Right-wing governing coalition after the election.
On another note: As a European, I find it strange to see Labor Day on the American calendar – but apparently without any celebration of American workers. So radically different from the International Workers’ Day that is celebrated in Europe and elsewhere.
Some telling numbers:
"The share of U.S. workers who belonged to a union in 2024 stood at 9.9%, down from 1983 when 20.1% of American workers were union members."
I’m once again interested in the reach seats, the kind that we’d never flip if not for an environment like the one we’re about to (likely) see.
I’ll ask again, to gauge opinions — which seats may qualify for that category? I know redistricting has fucked everything up but could such seats still emerge?
Well, I'm watching LSU-Clemson right now and Lyndsey Graham is running ads tying him to Trump.
Lots of my GOP friends absolutely detest Graham and I suspect will vote against him in primary. It'll be interesting if the wacko Dans beats the Graham the windsock, and in either case if it diminishes GOP enthusiasm.
I don't expect a Dem to win. But the floor is high here, 44% or so. Trouble is the ceiling is 45-46%. Governor race will draw voters, though I'm not sure there's a Dem candidate yet, so maybe it'll be hohum enough to lull disengaged GOP voters to sleep.
I am interested in the Iowa GOP primary for Governor. Does Adam Steen or others have strong enough of a following to either beat Randy Feenstra, or at least move him into unworkable positions for a general election audience? Right now Feenstra is in good shape because Steen is still getting his name out there and then you also have a couple people battling with Steen to get to the space to the right of Feenstra.
Can the Branstad/governing wing of the Iowa GOP help a candidate like Bouselot or Eddie Andrews gain traction? The interesting dynamic is that Kim Reynolds has aggravated every wing of her party, including that rational governing wing. Steen is to their right on nearly everything, and yet he is still angling for a Reynolds endorsement even though it would hurt him with almost every faction in the primary.
Terry Branstad left Kim Reynolds with decades pf political capital, IMO. She did a horrible job managing the factions of her party. Her political advisers were not doing their job because almost every card she has played in the last 3 years has not worked out for her.
I know trump has done a boat load of despicable/stupid/illegal things but is there anything worse as far as impacting the most Americans than select rfk, jr to whatever the hell position that cretin holds?
It was a genuine quid pro quo. I don't know what Harris could have offered him while he was still shopping around an endorsement. It would have be a blue ribbon committee role at best and not a cabinet position because there is no way a Dem is going to let him wreak havoc. Would he even take such an offer? They could have at least made an offer. Maybe they did, I don't know.
Definitely the highest one. MAHA are lunatics, honestly worse than the nativists (who at least exist within a longstanding American and frankly global political vein)
French fries are healthy with extremely high saturated fat, don't you know? And you can follow that up with candy bars made without artificial colors! Also, have you tried nicotine pouches? It's like a health nut's paradise! Hahaha!
At least the early 2010s bacon craze didn't pretend it was about eating healthy.
I remember the early 2010s fro-yo boom, which could get pretty stupid. People were acting like it was a healthy alternative to ice cream and covering it in gummy worms and Reese’s peanut butter cups. That was pretty dumb.
There was a more earnest fad in the 1990s marketing frozen yogurt as healthier than ice cream (which it isn't as it has a lot of added sugar to make up for the reduced fat), but that was when I was a young boy whose parents wouldn't get him sugary cereals or sugary sodas so I didn't notice it. I only learned about the fad from that one episode of "Seinfeld."
Frozen yoghurt might have been good if they made it with high-fat Greek yoghurt or Icelandic skyr – and kept the sugar out (not to mention the high-fructose corn syrup).
That latter ingredient shouldn’t even be used in chocolate!
I agree that the MAHA movement is full of crazy people with terrible ideas. Their anti-vaccine activism is going to kill thousands of people this winter because they are making it much harder to get COVID vaccines and I bet they go after flu shots next. We are already seeing Measles outbreaks and we will surely see the fruit of all their anti-vaccine activism in the coming years with more outbreaks of Polio and other diseases thought to have been eliminated with vaccines.. In Ohio, they are trying to legalize raw unpasteurized milk, which is known to sicken and kill people. This is already leading to children getting sick and dying in states that have already made raw milk legal to sell. There is a lot of crazy and stupid in this movement and it is going to eventually become another liability for the Trump administration.
The thing is, the MAHA movement is really clouded by crazies but otherwise, the real MAHA movement we should be talking about is one to help people live longer and healthier lives, especially when it comes to preventative ways to combat cancer.
Take for instance integrative medicine, which is practiced at many hospitals and healthcare organizations like Kaiser, Sutter Health and UCSF. One integrative medicine doctor at Sutter in San Carlos, CA has a certification in functional medicine and helps patients tackle chronic health conditions with practical supplements along with specific diets overseen by a nutritionist to reduce inflammation, oxidative stress and other factors. Regular testing is being done by more biomarkers than what you typically get at most hospitals per annual physical and you get full examination of your gut health, true vitamin deficiency, cortisol levels, and other factors.
True although integrative medicine used to have more of the "alternative medicine" label back in the 90's when there wasn't as much research back then. It became quacky, very much like the alternative healer on Seinfeld who tried giving George Costanza a concoction only for him to look like a plum in the ER.
Nowadays, integrative medicine is much different and most younger doctors either dabble in it or practice it out right together. Whether you want to argue it's western medicine based or not, it doesn't matter. Point being, you have better options for healthcare than what used to exist decades ago and you can plan accordingly without having to jump to seeing a psychiatrist. And the rise in more health conscious food options and health & wellness emphasis is only accelerating these trends.
NIH I greatly respect. There was an NIH study back in 2020 showing that children of autism suffer from multiple vitamin deficiencies from A, B12, D, etc. This is evidence that there's more real potential of preventative efforts of ensuring anyone with autism as well as ADHD can get treatment as they see fitting for their needs, far different than how things were back in the 90's.
My issue with MAHA, especially with RFK Jr's agenda, is that it's too distracted with trying to tie into "what causes autism" and rehashing the crap that the infamous Dr. Andrew Wakefield raised back in the day as opposed to looking at how to help anyone with autism work around their issues. Same with other issues
Anyone know how likely it is that Pritzker goes for a 15-2 map in response to Missouri? I know an extra Dem seat is possible but it would require some sacrifices from incumbents, but I'm not sure enough are willing to take less safer seats.
If you can get 2 seats out of IL & MD and 2 out of Utah and Wisconsin(if the WISC rules on the second case) then the GOP nets only 3 seats out of the 12 they were trying to net.
This is why we fight fire with fire. So what if we get burned?
Republicans will do anything to win power. We have to be unafraid of them punching us as they always do (even if we don’t from their promise of backing down if we do) and instead punch them back even harder.
We took a potential 15 seat deficit to a 10 seat deficit with California (and if you thought for a millisecond they wouldn’t go beyond Texas if Dems in CA didn’t redraw you’re as naive as Trump 2024 voters were).
Lots of potential scenarios yet to be determined how they play out, but yes every Democratic state should redraw. Also, we should get 3 out of Wisconsin or at bare minimum 2, screw the GOP always having a majority of congressional districts, it’s our turn because we won the most important races that they didn’t. It’s time to use the power we earned over many elections.
Illinois's nominating-petition circulation period has already begun for the 2026 midterm elections, so it would probably be unfeasible for Illinois to redistrict now, or at least the Republicans would have an argument of convenience. For what it's worth, Illinois has not yet set an official date for the 2026 primaries, to my knowledge. Illinois usually has very early primaries (typically in March, but the 2010 primaries were held in February, IIRC). I don't remember the last time Illinois had a general primary (the term Illinois uses for presidential-year and midterm-year primaries) later than April.
Maryland, New York, and New Jersey are still on the board for redistricting, although the latter two would, similarly to California, require revoking independent redistricting commission power over congressional redistricting. New York also has potential for intra-party opposition to redistricting (the left is going to flip out of AOC's district gets significantly altered, for example). Maryland only has one seat that can be flipped from R-leaning to D-leaning.
I'm sure some people have drawn 12-0 maps but curious how far NJ Dems would be willing to go assuming they get through the hurdles to get that chance. Shoring up D seats and flipping NJ-07? Do they try to flip Smith or Van Drew's seats?
I think they’d flip 7 and not touch Smith or Van Drew. They’re just too many Republicans in the shore counties and flipping 7, without weakening Sherrill’s district, will likely require cutting into Shirley Turner’s district. This will require pushing things further south and east.
I'm far more worried about the impact of re-gerrymandering on 2028 than I am of its impact on 2026. Especially if we can get California in time for 2026.
If we are going to have a wave, it's a lot more likely that we get a wave in 2026 than we do in 2028. If we're going to insulate ourselves from a second round of gerrymandering it would be more crucial to protect our ability to transform a majority of the vote into a majority in the house in 2028.
That in mind, I'm not too stressed right now if it's too late for NY, NJ, MD, or IL to respond in time for 2026. They do need to position themselves to be able to respond in time for 2028.
I’ve seen maps that even give Oregon a fifth Dem seat if OR-03 is unpacked a lot more.
At this point the main goal should be getting to 2029 with majorities in both houses and then make a filibuster carve out to pass a federal bill mandating independent commissions in all 50 states that have to follow a strict set of rules regarding county and city splitting.
Add in requirements for a minimum number of hours every state must have early voting for, minimum poll locations, people hired in each location matched to the number of people in a county, days and hours polling stations must be open (Saturday/Sunday, evenings), automatic voter registration, online voter registration, mail in ballots sent to all voters for every election + a list of all ID forms that must be accepted and I’m in.
Otherwise the bill wouldn’t go far enough because Republicans have been and will continue to put their thumbs on the scale with whatever scheme they come up with to make sure our voters have the hardest time to go cast their vote. We need to regulate literally every single detail of voting so that we finally have a fair playing field. If we don’t go to this level of depth in legislating, the GOP will find a loophole to screw over blue areas as they always have.
Simple solution then: Either they let us write laws as the voters have given us the power to do so or we expand the Supreme Court to make their opinion a minority. The gloves should’ve been off by Democrats since at least Merrick Garland under Obama.
Let us legislate or we will put a majority on there who will support what we want. No more norms and precedent or the right thing, do whatever is necessary for us to win. Them whining bitchy snowflakes can finally get what’s been coming to them and their party for decades. Let’s see how they like it!
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife, Angela, are longtime owners of a $1.5 million house in a gated community outside Dallas. In 2015, they snapped up a second home in Austin. Then another.
The problem: Mortgages signed by the Paxtons contained inaccurate statements declaring that each of those three houses was their primary residence, enabling the now-estranged couple to improperly lock in low interest rates, according to an Associated Press review of public records. The lower rates will save the Paxtons tens of thousands of dollars in payments over the life of the loan, legal experts say.
The records also revealed that the Paxtons routinely flouted lending agreements on some of their other properties.
I take it as a given that Trump now will demand that the Paxtons be charged with mortgage fraud – and that Ken Paxton resign as Texas Attorney General and withdraw from the senatorial race.
Living in Texas, I really have no dog in the fight for who Democrats nominate against Susan Collins, as long as they defeat her. But an article came out last Tuesday, and I didn't see it mentioned here, but it talks about Jordan Wood's connection to a political fundraising firm called Mothership Strategies, including that his husband is a co-founder and still with the firm.
For me one of the the worst parts of the article was this note about Mothership's fundraising approach, "Mothership was recently the subject of yet another viral investigation that revealed that of the $678 million the company’s core political action committees raised since 2018, just $11 million went to candidates; $159 million made its way to Mothership Strategies. Meanwhile, the firm’s spammy approach to email and text messaging—mock overdue bills, sky-is-falling rhetoric, and so on—has left the grassroots commons desiccated, draining email fundraising of its potency and driving many campaigns toward SMS (which is in the process of being destroyed itself).
Most fundraising firms, in order to find business, pitch themselves to political action committees (PACs) and to candidates. Mothership does that, but also innovated on the notion by simply making its own PACs and then turning them into clients. As long as the PACs spend some of the money they raise on political purposes—contributions to candidates, canvassing operations, producing ads, and so on—they are perfectly legal enterprises."
I hate those we're doomed emails and text messages. And then creating PACs to become your own clients. At the end of the day, it just left me with more questions. I wouldn't known about this article except an LGBTQ+ website I follow highlighted it since Wood is gay.
I will say, reading this article and its focus on dubious activities by PACS, is why I almost exclusively donate (what little I can) directly to candidates themselves.
This is where there's going to be a real distinction between Graham Platner, Jordan Wood and the rest of the Senate candidates running in the Democratic primary to determine whose best interests would be represented if any of them is to unseat Susan Collins next year.
The relieving part of this complication Wood has with Mothership Strategies has been that as of yet the DSCC has neither endorsed his candidacy nor anyone else's. This means that the race itself will allow the candidates to hold each other to higher standards without the DSCC clouding the race like it did back in 2019 when it endorsed Sara Gideon's candidacy early on without any real primary race in the end.
"Crisanta Duran, a former speaker of the Colorado House, is dropping out of the race to become the state’s next attorney general, the candidate announced Sunday morning.
“When I began my campaign for Colorado attorney general, it was to take on monopolies of power that have eroded the health, safety, and economic security of Americans,” Duran said in a statement. “Since the launch, the knowledge I’ve gained has been tremendous and there is no doubt that access to democracy must be strengthened.”
Duran, a Democrat, did not say in her Sunday statement why she decided to end her campaign, which she launched in February.
The four-term state legislator previously represented northwest Denver and, from 2017 to 2019, was House speaker."
The young 34 year old mayor of Cleveland speaks to me so much. We aren’t going to wait, we are taking control whether the establishment wants us to or not.
You’re a millennial. What are Democrats missing about millennials?
That we’re impatient.
Say more.
When I ran for mayor, a lot of folks — a lot of establishment Democrats in the party — told me to wait my turn. We are impatient about this country, because we know what crises look like … because we’ve experienced them firsthand — from 9/11 to the great recession to two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the pandemic.
But we’re also the most entrepreneurial generation as well.
The younger generations also have a lot to be angry about, seeing how the older generations brought about global warming. I can only hope that while working with both hands tied behind your backs by the irresponsibility of your elders, you act much more wisely than my generation (X) has. Humanity depends on it.
I'm Gen Z and I hope so too. I'm worried about a rightward shift in my generation, but I have also heard that Trump's popularity is falling among Gen Z so I have that to hope for at least.
It isn't just Cleveland's Mayor. There have been handfuls of millennials who have been elected Mayors as well who have a greater social consciousness than generations prior and also seem to be trying to deal with housing affordability in a more serious way.
CA State Senator Jesse Arreguin, who at the age of 40 had previously served as Mayor of Berkeley for two terms from 2017-2025, was laser focused on creating more affordable housing in the city when he was mayor. Saw him multiple times catching the bus in and around North Berkeley. From his leadership, Berkeley's average monthly rent has in recent months started to drop.
Or former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs who ended up spearheading a universal basic income initiative in the city before he turned 30. This ended up increasing consumer spending whereas the City of Stockton has struggled over the 10+ years since the Great Recession.
Impatience results in greater urgency in addressing immediate problems that are tied to basic bread and butter issues.
How do you know rent is dropping in Berkeley due to his leadership? Rent is dropping across many markets throughout the country do to the cooling economy, specifically in the housing market.
Berkeleyside has an article on the housing market in Berkeley. Housing activists have cited the city’s aggressive measures to build housing as evidence.
This has started with Arreguin when he was Mayor of Berkeley. Previously, Tom Bates didn’t do much. Berkeley also happens to be a pro-tenant city so more inclusive discourse is present as opposed to SF where corporate developers have been a lobby for a long time.
And real estate values are going down these days. As someone who lives in Berkeley, whatever increase in rental prices are nothing compared to how much it costs in San Francisco, Palo Alto, etc.
That said, the prices of rent are in fact decreasing these days although in recent months, not for years.
Several Florida Dems, including Patrick Murphy (a pretty big name), are backing what I believe to be the long-shot campaign of Pia Dandiya to unseat GOP Rep. Brian Mast in an R+7 district. Dandiya apparently is a former high school principal who is currently a public sector initiative leader at Apple.
I do not believe this seat is remotely flippable but I am curious that big names like Murphy are getting involved. I'd ask if there's secretly hidden potential here, but Florida is about to gerrymander their map so I'm not making any comments.
On this race, I don’t think I ever saw it mentioned on TDB, but Padiya’s fundraising is impressive. This is one of those reach seats that can fall in a wave big enough (dependent on whether the GOP redraws it or not):
In just her first 29 days running, Dandiya’s campaign reported that she raised more than $400,000 — almost exactly as much as Mast raised in the first three months of 2025.
FYI I had a chance to meet Dandiya a few weeks ago. She’s very impressive and would make a great representative. Thanks to Mast for his service but beyond that he has nothing to offer other than tired GOP talking points.
There are statewide elections in Georgia for two seats on the Public Service Commission in November, does anyone have any thoughts about how the Democratic candidates might do, and if it could be a signal about what the chances are next year for the senatorial and gubernatorial races?
The special elections in Nov 2025, are expected to have low turnout. And anything could happen. In the primary for these specials the turnout dropped to mid single digit, and there were Dem ballots twice as many as Rs.
Ig they will not tell much about the midterm. The midterm is shaping up as another high turnout one with over 4 million votes expected.
Since I’m assuming there’s no digest or open thread for labor day, here’s a great in depth interview about Graham Platner with a couple paragraphs of answers from him to entice you to read it entirely.
This is sort of related, but how are you tapping into what seems to be an anti-Establishment feeling within the American electorate right now?
I think you focus specifically on the things that unite pretty much all working people in the United States. Health care, housing, child care, a feeling that they have watched immense amounts of money get spent on horrific foreign wars while they’ve gotten none of the things they need. Talk about those things. People respond to the material conditions that are their lives. I believe that. I believe it because I see it every day. I don’t have to read some focus-group paper on how we should talk to working-class people. I make $50,000 a year, and I live in a town of a thousand. I’m a working-class person who lives in a working-class town. I don’t believe in magic words. There’s this thing right now where everyone’s like, “Well, what if we change the words?” Then we’ll message differently. And that’s insane. Again, I don’t think people are idiots. It’s not a messaging problem.
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People know that when you’re trying to tailor the message, it’s because you’re not trying to change the content or the actual context of what you are saying. The discussion about how we need to use different words, I find it so absurd because by openly having that conversation, you are stating that you don’t want to change anything. You just want to change how you talk about it. I think people see this stuff as just a bunch of weird focus groups politicking, and that’s what they hate. It’s what I hate. It’s why I’m here. It’s why I’m doing this. I can’t stand that stuff. I think it’s ineffective. I think it alienates people. I also think that it’s the reason a lot of people have given up.
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So you don’t get dragged into that stuff. You don’t have to run away from your ideals. You don’t have to sell anybody out. You don’t have to say that you believe something you don’t or that you don’t believe something that you do. What you have to do is engage people with the reality they know to be true, which is that they live in a society that is not built for them at all. They live in a society that is built to enrich very, very few people, and it is meant to extract as much wealth and time and energy out of them for that group’s benefit as possible. Everybody knows this. Republicans know it, Democrats know it. Progressives know it. Trump voters know it. Go across the working class of this country, and ask people if they think they live in a society that is designed for their benefit. Not a single one of them is going to say “yes.” And the way that you tap into that is you tell them the truth that they already know. You say that is correct. The people who are screwing you are way up there, and they have accrued all the money and all the power, and they’re going to continue doing it until we start building power of our own.
A gallup poll shows Trump's support among non-college educated voters has rebounded but is not at the high it was during 2024. Originally back in 2024, 56% of non-college educated voters approved of Trump.
By July, Trump's approval rating for these voters was at 38% but then by last month, 45% non-college educated voters approved of Trump's job as POTUS.
This lies the question - For those non-college educated voters, in which states does Trump not have the best ratings?
Donald Trump's standing with Americans without a college degree—a group central to his political base—has swung noticeably over the past three months.
Gallup polling shows that in June, 41 percent of non-college-educated Americans approved of Trump's job performance, while 56 percent disapproved. His numbers dipped slightly in July, with 38 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. But by August, Trump saw a rebound: 45 percent of non-college voters approved of his performance, compared to 49 percent who disapproved.
Why It Matters
Non college-educated Americans have long supported Trump. In 2024, he won 56 percent of Americans without a college degree, up from 51 percent in 2020.
The recent rebound in his approval rating with this group suggests that his populist messaging and economic appeals may still resonate, even as he struggles with college-educated voters.
People are still hoping a duck that says it’s a duck and acts like a duck is actually a beautiful swan. They don’t want to admit how stupid they were, so they keep thinking Trump will improve prices or the economy magically as time passes on. Once those price increases hit from tariffs most will wake from their fantasy.
So far most companies have chosen to absorb the costs instead of passing them onto consumers, but that’s changing slowly the longer the trade wars go on. At some point there will be a major sticker shock and the uneducated will realize what they actually voted for (though they’ll never admit their part in it, they’ll get mad at the current party in power for not stopping inflation).
Just like they did with Democrats and Biden and just in time for the midterms.
I mean some of it can just be noise between samples not sure on their methodology. Assuming it's real though Trump has been kind of hammering out red meat nonsense for the poorly educated. Crime crack down on DC, Tariffing foreign countries, flag burning etc. I think the bigger question is when the tariffs start taking a bite do they care or are higher prices only a problem when someone not named Trump is in office.
With Democrats successful recruitment of top-tier Senate candidates in state after state, and indications that Janet Mills will run in Maine – and even rumors that Mary Peltola may run in Alaska – I wonder what our odds are of retaking the Senate in 2026?
Yes, I fully realize this is an uphill battle, a steep one, but it now seems within the realm of possibility.
Anyone have thoughts or care to quantify the odds?
I would prefer if Janet Mills didn't run but I think if the bottom starts to fall out on the economy, especially if he doesn't do anything about the de minimis exemption I think we've got a pretty decent shot. On top of that if "it" actually happens sooner rather than later it could set off a civil war within the Republican Party that we could take advantage of. But we need candidates who actually want the job. I'd say right now it's 40-60.
What are the indications that Governor Mills takes the plunge?
Rather than rejecting the prospects of a Senate campaign, she has postponed any announcement until November or December. Mills has clearly stated that she is "seriously considering" challenging Susan Collins.
Trying to understand the upside of waiting this long.
She doesn’t want to do it, but she will if no other competent challenger emerges.
Is that the case? If so what competent challenger is she waiting on?
With the caveat that I suck as an election predictor, I still think it's quite an uphill battle to flip Senate seats in Republican states like Texas, Ohio and Alaska, even if Iowa flips, so I figure there's something like a 20% chance.
I suspect that Iowa gives us a much better chance to flip than Texas, Ohio and Alaska because agriculture is a much bigger part of Iowa's economy than the other states and Trump's agenda will be horrible for agriculture. His trade war is provoking retaliatory tariffs and agriculture is a major source of American exports. His attacks on foreign aid and food stamps hurts farmers because American agriculture is the main product that foreign governments spend their foreign aid on and food stamps are spent on American agriculture. The ICE raids are leaving farmers in a position where they will not be able to get anyone to harvest their crops this fall and this will devastate farm country. Finally, Trump's attacks on wind and solar power have also hurt farmers who often rent out their land for windmills and solar panels for extra income. We have already seen major over performance in Iowa special elections and I suspect that any blue wave next fall will hit the GOP harder in Iowa than in most states.
It's looking that way. Good analysis.
We’re looking good for the potential of retaking the Senate providing the following seats flip:
AK
IA
ME
NC
TX
Democrats need to flip a minimum of four seats in order to retake the Senate with no GOP gains. You could have AK, ME, NC and TX or AK, IA, ME and NC.
I am not including OH in the predictions mainly because Sherrod Brown hasn’t caught up in the polls as of yet. So far, he’s 6% points behind Senator Jon Husted in the latest Emerson poll with more to come in the coming days, weeks and months ahead.
Also, with Dan Osborn running again in the NE-SEN race, this could be one to watch as last year he lost to Senator Deb Fischer by less than 6% points.
Also, regarding TX:
Now that the cost of living, inflation and immigration raid issues are blowing up in Trump and the GOP’s face, sentiment could potentially go back to Democrats in the state where races are closer than they were in 2024. Even while Colin Allred lost to Ted Cruz by a tad less than 10% points, the numbers for him could be lower.
Let’s not forget that Biden lost TX to Trump in the 2020 presidential election by less than 6% points.
I’m skeptical about OH too but I wouldn’t count it out just yet. Things haven’t really hit the fan yet.
I’m not ruling out OH but I am neutral about the race as we still need to see more polling data over time.
Ohio will be hard. While Brown is by far our strongest candidate, Husted is the type of boring establishment Republican that thrives in Ohio, and Trump's protectionism is like catnip to dying rust belt areas who still believe that their factories will come back if we ended free trade.
Fair assessment. Democrats need to work on OH more as far as winning races, not just the high profile ones.
I think basing any predictions on 1 Emerson poll doesn't make sense. OH-Sen figures to be a Lean-R race, and I don't think any of the potential flips in Republican states (not counting NC among them) should get a closer rating, for now, though Iowa is looking more promising.
Those races I am referring to such as AK, IA and TX I am saying mainly because they have good potential based on how Trump in his 2nd term has affected each of the states.
OH is more of a wait and see what happens kind of race but Lean GOP is fair as Sherrod Brown lost to Bernie Moreno by a tad less than 4% points.
Would you agree that none of the races in those states are better than lean-R at this point?
Yes, right now Lean GOP would at best would be appropriate.
Also, have his actions been less bad for Ohio than those other states?
I’m mainly referring to how the inflation and immigration issues are affecting the Senate races now that Trump is in office and it’s all on him since he hasn’t fixed the problem.
OH though would be a tougher nut to crack as Trump has moved the state more to the right since his first term as POTUS.
Iowa, too, though.
If my 2024 predictions are anything to go by, you should not pay any attention to my thoughts on this.
That said, I’m opinionated, and you asked, so I’ll answer. If everything goes right for the remaining races we don’t yet know who our Democratic nominations are likely to be (best case: Peltola runs in AK, a great nominee in IA vs MAGA AG Bird or far right legislative rep, Talarico passes in TX coupled with Paxton winning the GOP primary and Mills passing in Maine), I’d say we’d have a 30-40% chance of winning a majority.
Less if any of the above scenarios don’t actually happen. We still need a lot to go right for us and the playing field is almost entirely in red states. If tariffs stay, the economy stalls, a recession happens and/or inflation gets out of control I’d bump it to 50% chance, maybe even all the way to a more likely than not outcome. But we need a ton of tailwind to win these seats in these states, a 2018 like wave is probably necessary, maybe even higher.
Do I understand you correctly: that you believe our chances increase if Talarico and Mills *don’t* run?
I actually want Talarico to run for Senate. He’s got the profile that I think can win, and quite frankly I don’t believe Allred can pull it off. I think Joaquin Castro should run for Governor - he’d certainly juice Latino turnout.
Mills, on the other hand, in my opinion is too old and not as exciting as a Platner or similar candidate would be. That’s just my thoughts though.
Yes, Platner may seem refreshing and exciting as a candidate. But in my mind there is only one question: if he is our candidate, can he beat Collins? Count me skeptical. Mills may be old, but she is the only one I see who can defeat Collins.
The thing is, Mills is a bit of a moderate, and Collins has marketed herself as a moderate for some time, whatever her votes. If voters see a moderate incumbent, and a moderate challenger, why would they vote for the challenger when they have the incumbent? Why fight fire with fire? (Both are also quite old to boot.) I can see running a moderate against a MAGA candidate possibly working if the MAGA candidate is too extreme (as voters can contrast a sane, rational person with a deranged Trumper lunatic, and vote from there), but here the two are similar enough that I worry such a strategy would fail.
I think Platner’s policy differences and aesthetic give him what he needs to fight Collins. Is there something about Platner that you feel makes him less likely to beat Collins?
Collins may well have marketed herself as a "moderate", but time and time again, and with few exceptions, she has voted to confirm Trump’s heinous appointments and voted for his incredibly destructive budgets and policies.
I would argue that fewer Mainers than ever are convinced that she is a "moderate incumbent" – so Mills against Collins wouldn’t be a moderate vs a moderate.
We’ve gone with DC Democrats choices for decades now and she’s still in office. Time to try something and someone new. Contrasting a 70 year old with a 70 year old doesn’t work very well. A 40 year old with a 70 year old though, now that’s a contrast fight we can absolutely win.
Regardless though, by November Platner will have sewn up the nomination and may even scare Mills into not running (if she was planning to, which I doubt a lot). When a campaign starts with a bang you need to have the opposition start their own campaign immediately or else their momentum builds too much too quickly to stop.
She's no "DC Democrat" though. She's a career politician but her entire career has been in Maine offices, not one second in DC.
How many more points do you think Talarico would get, and why?
Talarico comes off to me as someone who’s practically made for TV. He articulates his thoughts well, he offers a Christian counter argument to MAGA Christianity, and he seems like someone who will be able to perform well as a national figure. These are skills that I think fit a Senator well — these races get much more national coverage than most House races, and this particular skill set is one that I think could deliver a Senate win,
Governor is a little different to me. I’ve always seen Governors as Presidents of their state. They have to come in with an explicit agenda, a set of priorities, management skills, etc., almost like a President would but for their state. I have not seen Talarico talk actual policy or management enough in a manner that would fit a Governor role, in my opinion. As Governor, you have to navigate your state’s internal politics as almost a figurehead. See Hochul and her management (or lack thereof) of New York’s various problems and factions as one example — Pritzker too. They become the face of their state. In the Senate, aside from things like diplomatic efforts, ultimately you are one vote. Your vote is important — it determines whether a Dem will lead the Senate, along with what is and isn’t passed — but in the end it’s still just a vote.
I think Talarico has the energy for the Senate. We know he’ll be a reliable vote, he’s clearly a rising star, and his appealing message (enough to convince Joe fucking Rogan) to me screams Senate. I don’t think he can lead a state like he could function as a Senator, but that’s just me. I could be totally wrong too. I’m just saying what I feel.
As for points, I can’t say for certain. But I do think he’d perform better than Allred. Unfortunately, I think Allred being black is a liability in a state with a history like Texas’s on race, and Allred doesn’t really come off to me as someone who has much going for him in terms of image, dynamic, etc. Talarico does in my mind, as I explained.
Thanks. That's very eloquent. Did Talarico ever offer an opinion about whether giving up and going home was the right move from the Texas legislators?
Yes, because a competitive primary in TX that ends in a May runoff with a 6 month sprint for the nominee is much harder to win than a full year and half campaign in a gigantic and expensive state. Take a look at how MJ Hegar did with the nomination after winning the runoff.
I know she faced Cornyn, but 6 months to build a general election campaign in Texas is impossible for Democrats to overcome a 20 year political infrastructure Republicans have built there. Time is always finite and the most valuable for a campaign to have.
I do think Talarico could be a better candidate than Allred (although his 2024 performance was impressive, maybe it was just an anti-Cruz vote), but not by enough to lose a year of a general election campaign in a still red state.
Mills is going to be hit by this age concern by Democrats and indies imo. The Biden hangover is real and with the very old Trump as president I think age will be a defining issue in 2026 elections. I’d much rather a contrast between a 40 year old working man to Collins who is an old feature and creature of politics.
You have some interesting reflections. Yes, I do wish Mills was 20 or 30 years younger, and I do hope some great young candidate magically appears and steps up to seize the challenge. I want Janet Mills to step up because I don’t see any other credible candidates on the horizon – at least not so far.
PS. The so-called "poll" numbers released by our dear oyster farmer are simply not credible. Heck, not even the DownBallot’s pro team has been able to dig up the source of that poll!
I wouldn’t write off Platner yet. He doesn’t really have name recognition — give him some time.
I stand by my belief that Mills is too old.
Too old for what? To win another state-wide election? Have Maine voters ever voted down a popular politician just because they were old?
What about a possible dark horse like state AG Aaron Frey?
I don’t believe that poll, which I stated so pretty clearly yesterday. I do, however, believe the fundraising, earned media and social media (which is how elections today are won). Every pundit thought Mamdani couldn’t win the nomination until after he creamed Cuomo. If we paid attention just to polling we would’ve looked stupid on election day in that race (as almost all pollsters did). If we paid attention to the unmeasurable factors instead, we would’ve known Mamdani was going to cruise to victory in the primary.
Polling doesn’t matter in primaries, but creating excitement among first time voters, swing voters and/or ordinary party voters does. It’s pretty clear imo with now 2 separate populist economic progressive candidates (and a lesser extent to Fetterman before his stroke) catching fire in their campaigns that this is what fires up our party. Whether this works in swing purple or red districts, well tbd on that and people can rightfully debate it, but blue ones? Pretty undeniable at this point.
One final side note on Platner that I think exemplifies why his campaign has taken the political world by storm. Democrats always ask our candidates “but how will you talk to Trump voters” as if we view them as some alien species never seen before that needs to have a special formula for our party to engage with. Platner’s answer was refreshingly honest and one I think we need to embrace as a party: “I talk to them every day”.
Excellent analysis. Fully agree, especially on talking to Trump voters -- no focus group is going, in my opinion, to appeal to them. A lot of Trump voters voted for Trump foolishly believing he was more honest. If Dems can project honesty, particularly after this whole Epstein saga, we may have an opening, at least in my opinion.
Talarico just has the juice, the best politician to come out of Texas in a long time. But Allred was a pretty strong candidate in 2024 too. He beat Biden by 5.5%, which probably wins him in the state in the 2026 national environment.
They would make a great ticket, especially if you could get Castro to run for AG.
PredictIt gives them 25%. At this point, I would agree.
NORWAY – Parliamentary Elections, 8 September
I am carefully watching the final weeks of the campaigning for Norway’s Parliamentary Elections.
Earlier this year, conventional wisdom was that a Conservative-led coalition would be victorious, replacing today’s Labour-led coalition. But much has happened since then.
– The ruling coalition broke, the Centre Party withdrew from government.
– PM Jonas Gahr Støre brough in Jens Stoltenberg as Finance Minister.
– Stoltenberg is a highly-respected former PM and NATO Secretary General.
– The minority government then pursued much-clearer Labour policies.
– The advent of Trump and his extreme and erratic policies has greatly increased the Center-Left’s popularity in Norway, just as Trump did for Canada, Australia, Romania and other countries.
– The Labour Party’s popularity skyrocketed.
– The right-wing Progress Party has surpassed the Conservative Party in the polls.
– Their party leaders, Erna Solberg and Sylvi Lysthaug, are acrimoniously fighting like cat and dog about who should be prime minister if they get a majority.
– For centrist parties who might support Solberg, the thought of Lysthaug as PM is anathema.
– Opinion polls now indicate that Labour and allied parties hold a slight edge.
– Several parties, both Left, Centrist and Right-wing (by Norwegian standards) find themselves at the threshold, raising uncertainty whether they’ll make it into Parliament.
Which parties climb above or fall below the threshold may well decide whether Norway will have a Center-Left or Right-wing governing coalition after the election.
On another note: As a European, I find it strange to see Labor Day on the American calendar – but apparently without any celebration of American workers. So radically different from the International Workers’ Day that is celebrated in Europe and elsewhere.
Some telling numbers:
"The share of U.S. workers who belonged to a union in 2024 stood at 9.9%, down from 1983 when 20.1% of American workers were union members."
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/27/majorities-of-adults-see-decline-of-union-membership-as-bad-for-the-us-and-working-people/
In 2020, over 50% of Norwegian workers were union members. For Denmark, the figure was 67%, and for Iceland 91.4%.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1356735/labor-unions-most-unionized-countries-worldwide/
I’m once again interested in the reach seats, the kind that we’d never flip if not for an environment like the one we’re about to (likely) see.
I’ll ask again, to gauge opinions — which seats may qualify for that category? I know redistricting has fucked everything up but could such seats still emerge?
Well, I'm watching LSU-Clemson right now and Lyndsey Graham is running ads tying him to Trump.
Lots of my GOP friends absolutely detest Graham and I suspect will vote against him in primary. It'll be interesting if the wacko Dans beats the Graham the windsock, and in either case if it diminishes GOP enthusiasm.
I don't expect a Dem to win. But the floor is high here, 44% or so. Trouble is the ceiling is 45-46%. Governor race will draw voters, though I'm not sure there's a Dem candidate yet, so maybe it'll be hohum enough to lull disengaged GOP voters to sleep.
Pessimism would be mitigated some if Stephen Colbert runs, lol.
I am interested in the Iowa GOP primary for Governor. Does Adam Steen or others have strong enough of a following to either beat Randy Feenstra, or at least move him into unworkable positions for a general election audience? Right now Feenstra is in good shape because Steen is still getting his name out there and then you also have a couple people battling with Steen to get to the space to the right of Feenstra.
Can the Branstad/governing wing of the Iowa GOP help a candidate like Bouselot or Eddie Andrews gain traction? The interesting dynamic is that Kim Reynolds has aggravated every wing of her party, including that rational governing wing. Steen is to their right on nearly everything, and yet he is still angling for a Reynolds endorsement even though it would hurt him with almost every faction in the primary.
Terry Branstad left Kim Reynolds with decades pf political capital, IMO. She did a horrible job managing the factions of her party. Her political advisers were not doing their job because almost every card she has played in the last 3 years has not worked out for her.
I know trump has done a boat load of despicable/stupid/illegal things but is there anything worse as far as impacting the most Americans than select rfk, jr to whatever the hell position that cretin holds?
It was a genuine quid pro quo. I don't know what Harris could have offered him while he was still shopping around an endorsement. It would have be a blue ribbon committee role at best and not a cabinet position because there is no way a Dem is going to let him wreak havoc. Would he even take such an offer? They could have at least made an offer. Maybe they did, I don't know.
I'm glad they didn't.
I've always assumed he was running to hurt the Democrat but when it didn't materialize the Trump campaign told him to bail.
I don't know how sincere they were being when they said they were pitching to each side for an endorsement.
I would have been ok with RFK Jr being offered a position on a committee that examined food additives. But that’s as far as it goes.
Yeah, a blue ribbon committee like I said.
Definitely the highest one. MAHA are lunatics, honestly worse than the nativists (who at least exist within a longstanding American and frankly global political vein)
French fries are healthy with extremely high saturated fat, don't you know? And you can follow that up with candy bars made without artificial colors! Also, have you tried nicotine pouches? It's like a health nut's paradise! Hahaha!
At least the early 2010s bacon craze didn't pretend it was about eating healthy.
I remember the early 2010s fro-yo boom, which could get pretty stupid. People were acting like it was a healthy alternative to ice cream and covering it in gummy worms and Reese’s peanut butter cups. That was pretty dumb.
There was a more earnest fad in the 1990s marketing frozen yogurt as healthier than ice cream (which it isn't as it has a lot of added sugar to make up for the reduced fat), but that was when I was a young boy whose parents wouldn't get him sugary cereals or sugary sodas so I didn't notice it. I only learned about the fad from that one episode of "Seinfeld."
Frozen yoghurt might have been good if they made it with high-fat Greek yoghurt or Icelandic skyr – and kept the sugar out (not to mention the high-fructose corn syrup).
That latter ingredient shouldn’t even be used in chocolate!
I agree that the MAHA movement is full of crazy people with terrible ideas. Their anti-vaccine activism is going to kill thousands of people this winter because they are making it much harder to get COVID vaccines and I bet they go after flu shots next. We are already seeing Measles outbreaks and we will surely see the fruit of all their anti-vaccine activism in the coming years with more outbreaks of Polio and other diseases thought to have been eliminated with vaccines.. In Ohio, they are trying to legalize raw unpasteurized milk, which is known to sicken and kill people. This is already leading to children getting sick and dying in states that have already made raw milk legal to sell. There is a lot of crazy and stupid in this movement and it is going to eventually become another liability for the Trump administration.
The thing is, the MAHA movement is really clouded by crazies but otherwise, the real MAHA movement we should be talking about is one to help people live longer and healthier lives, especially when it comes to preventative ways to combat cancer.
Take for instance integrative medicine, which is practiced at many hospitals and healthcare organizations like Kaiser, Sutter Health and UCSF. One integrative medicine doctor at Sutter in San Carlos, CA has a certification in functional medicine and helps patients tackle chronic health conditions with practical supplements along with specific diets overseen by a nutritionist to reduce inflammation, oxidative stress and other factors. Regular testing is being done by more biomarkers than what you typically get at most hospitals per annual physical and you get full examination of your gut health, true vitamin deficiency, cortisol levels, and other factors.
But you're talking about orthodox medicine, exactly the kind of research and medical practice the NIH has facilitated.
True although integrative medicine used to have more of the "alternative medicine" label back in the 90's when there wasn't as much research back then. It became quacky, very much like the alternative healer on Seinfeld who tried giving George Costanza a concoction only for him to look like a plum in the ER.
Nowadays, integrative medicine is much different and most younger doctors either dabble in it or practice it out right together. Whether you want to argue it's western medicine based or not, it doesn't matter. Point being, you have better options for healthcare than what used to exist decades ago and you can plan accordingly without having to jump to seeing a psychiatrist. And the rise in more health conscious food options and health & wellness emphasis is only accelerating these trends.
NIH I greatly respect. There was an NIH study back in 2020 showing that children of autism suffer from multiple vitamin deficiencies from A, B12, D, etc. This is evidence that there's more real potential of preventative efforts of ensuring anyone with autism as well as ADHD can get treatment as they see fitting for their needs, far different than how things were back in the 90's.
My issue with MAHA, especially with RFK Jr's agenda, is that it's too distracted with trying to tie into "what causes autism" and rehashing the crap that the infamous Dr. Andrew Wakefield raised back in the day as opposed to looking at how to help anyone with autism work around their issues. Same with other issues
Anyone know how likely it is that Pritzker goes for a 15-2 map in response to Missouri? I know an extra Dem seat is possible but it would require some sacrifices from incumbents, but I'm not sure enough are willing to take less safer seats.
If you can get 2 seats out of IL & MD and 2 out of Utah and Wisconsin(if the WISC rules on the second case) then the GOP nets only 3 seats out of the 12 they were trying to net.
If Indiana does it too, I think there’s a decent chance Illinois does. Maryland should respond to Missouri.
This is why we fight fire with fire. So what if we get burned?
Republicans will do anything to win power. We have to be unafraid of them punching us as they always do (even if we don’t from their promise of backing down if we do) and instead punch them back even harder.
We took a potential 15 seat deficit to a 10 seat deficit with California (and if you thought for a millisecond they wouldn’t go beyond Texas if Dems in CA didn’t redraw you’re as naive as Trump 2024 voters were).
Lots of potential scenarios yet to be determined how they play out, but yes every Democratic state should redraw. Also, we should get 3 out of Wisconsin or at bare minimum 2, screw the GOP always having a majority of congressional districts, it’s our turn because we won the most important races that they didn’t. It’s time to use the power we earned over many elections.
When they go low, we must go high.
When they go for the gut punch, we gotta go for the jugular!
Illinois's nominating-petition circulation period has already begun for the 2026 midterm elections, so it would probably be unfeasible for Illinois to redistrict now, or at least the Republicans would have an argument of convenience. For what it's worth, Illinois has not yet set an official date for the 2026 primaries, to my knowledge. Illinois usually has very early primaries (typically in March, but the 2010 primaries were held in February, IIRC). I don't remember the last time Illinois had a general primary (the term Illinois uses for presidential-year and midterm-year primaries) later than April.
Maryland, New York, and New Jersey are still on the board for redistricting, although the latter two would, similarly to California, require revoking independent redistricting commission power over congressional redistricting. New York also has potential for intra-party opposition to redistricting (the left is going to flip out of AOC's district gets significantly altered, for example). Maryland only has one seat that can be flipped from R-leaning to D-leaning.
New Jersey is out for 2026 as it’s too late to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot this November.
I'm sure some people have drawn 12-0 maps but curious how far NJ Dems would be willing to go assuming they get through the hurdles to get that chance. Shoring up D seats and flipping NJ-07? Do they try to flip Smith or Van Drew's seats?
I think they’d flip 7 and not touch Smith or Van Drew. They’re just too many Republicans in the shore counties and flipping 7, without weakening Sherrill’s district, will likely require cutting into Shirley Turner’s district. This will require pushing things further south and east.
Is water contiguity allowed? This is a 12-0 map I made that uses water contiguity to connect southern Ocean County to North Jersey:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b5c9a42-c41a-4b68-8ac2-91b4d83beecc
I'm far more worried about the impact of re-gerrymandering on 2028 than I am of its impact on 2026. Especially if we can get California in time for 2026.
If we are going to have a wave, it's a lot more likely that we get a wave in 2026 than we do in 2028. If we're going to insulate ourselves from a second round of gerrymandering it would be more crucial to protect our ability to transform a majority of the vote into a majority in the house in 2028.
That in mind, I'm not too stressed right now if it's too late for NY, NJ, MD, or IL to respond in time for 2026. They do need to position themselves to be able to respond in time for 2028.
I’ve seen maps that even give Oregon a fifth Dem seat if OR-03 is unpacked a lot more.
At this point the main goal should be getting to 2029 with majorities in both houses and then make a filibuster carve out to pass a federal bill mandating independent commissions in all 50 states that have to follow a strict set of rules regarding county and city splitting.
Add in requirements for a minimum number of hours every state must have early voting for, minimum poll locations, people hired in each location matched to the number of people in a county, days and hours polling stations must be open (Saturday/Sunday, evenings), automatic voter registration, online voter registration, mail in ballots sent to all voters for every election + a list of all ID forms that must be accepted and I’m in.
Otherwise the bill wouldn’t go far enough because Republicans have been and will continue to put their thumbs on the scale with whatever scheme they come up with to make sure our voters have the hardest time to go cast their vote. We need to regulate literally every single detail of voting so that we finally have a fair playing field. If we don’t go to this level of depth in legislating, the GOP will find a loophole to screw over blue areas as they always have.
Also don't put it past this corrupt Supreme Court to fuck with whatever law Democrats pass.
Simple solution then: Either they let us write laws as the voters have given us the power to do so or we expand the Supreme Court to make their opinion a minority. The gloves should’ve been off by Democrats since at least Merrick Garland under Obama.
Let us legislate or we will put a majority on there who will support what we want. No more norms and precedent or the right thing, do whatever is necessary for us to win. Them whining bitchy snowflakes can finally get what’s been coming to them and their party for decades. Let’s see how they like it!
Roberts himself said that gerrymandering could only be fixed by federal or state legislation. Right from the horse’s mouth here.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife, Angela, are longtime owners of a $1.5 million house in a gated community outside Dallas. In 2015, they snapped up a second home in Austin. Then another.
The problem: Mortgages signed by the Paxtons contained inaccurate statements declaring that each of those three houses was their primary residence, enabling the now-estranged couple to improperly lock in low interest rates, according to an Associated Press review of public records. The lower rates will save the Paxtons tens of thousands of dollars in payments over the life of the loan, legal experts say.
The records also revealed that the Paxtons routinely flouted lending agreements on some of their other properties.
https://apnews.com/article/paxton-mortgages-trump-primary-residence-homestead-deduction-bd259b6bd122afcaf4f11eac5a3a152e
Few things go together quite as well as corruption and the Republican Party.
Oh by the way this is also after Trump tried to go after Tish James for ostensibly committing mortgage fraud.
Hypocrisy and the Republican Party go together just as well.
I take it as a given that Trump now will demand that the Paxtons be charged with mortgage fraud – and that Ken Paxton resign as Texas Attorney General and withdraw from the senatorial race.
/s
Oh please, I hope Paxton primaries Cornyn out. He's going to be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats if they want to win the TX Senate seat.
Living in Texas, I really have no dog in the fight for who Democrats nominate against Susan Collins, as long as they defeat her. But an article came out last Tuesday, and I didn't see it mentioned here, but it talks about Jordan Wood's connection to a political fundraising firm called Mothership Strategies, including that his husband is a co-founder and still with the firm.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/maine-democratic-senate-primary-graham-platner-jordan-wood-susan-collins
For me one of the the worst parts of the article was this note about Mothership's fundraising approach, "Mothership was recently the subject of yet another viral investigation that revealed that of the $678 million the company’s core political action committees raised since 2018, just $11 million went to candidates; $159 million made its way to Mothership Strategies. Meanwhile, the firm’s spammy approach to email and text messaging—mock overdue bills, sky-is-falling rhetoric, and so on—has left the grassroots commons desiccated, draining email fundraising of its potency and driving many campaigns toward SMS (which is in the process of being destroyed itself).
Most fundraising firms, in order to find business, pitch themselves to political action committees (PACs) and to candidates. Mothership does that, but also innovated on the notion by simply making its own PACs and then turning them into clients. As long as the PACs spend some of the money they raise on political purposes—contributions to candidates, canvassing operations, producing ads, and so on—they are perfectly legal enterprises."
I hate those we're doomed emails and text messages. And then creating PACs to become your own clients. At the end of the day, it just left me with more questions. I wouldn't known about this article except an LGBTQ+ website I follow highlighted it since Wood is gay.
I will say, reading this article and its focus on dubious activities by PACS, is why I almost exclusively donate (what little I can) directly to candidates themselves.
This is where there's going to be a real distinction between Graham Platner, Jordan Wood and the rest of the Senate candidates running in the Democratic primary to determine whose best interests would be represented if any of them is to unseat Susan Collins next year.
The relieving part of this complication Wood has with Mothership Strategies has been that as of yet the DSCC has neither endorsed his candidacy nor anyone else's. This means that the race itself will allow the candidates to hold each other to higher standards without the DSCC clouding the race like it did back in 2019 when it endorsed Sara Gideon's candidacy early on without any real primary race in the end.
I’m really looking forward to Richard Neal’s primary
Please say more.
"Crisanta Duran, a former speaker of the Colorado House, is dropping out of the race to become the state’s next attorney general, the candidate announced Sunday morning.
“When I began my campaign for Colorado attorney general, it was to take on monopolies of power that have eroded the health, safety, and economic security of Americans,” Duran said in a statement. “Since the launch, the knowledge I’ve gained has been tremendous and there is no doubt that access to democracy must be strengthened.”
Duran, a Democrat, did not say in her Sunday statement why she decided to end her campaign, which she launched in February.
The four-term state legislator previously represented northwest Denver and, from 2017 to 2019, was House speaker."
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/08/31/crisanta-duran-colorado-attorney-general/
This is the second high profile promotion she’s declined to seek at this point, IIRC
When she dropped out of the Senate race to primary DeGette I lost faith in her political instincts.
I'm sure I thought that at some point, but as soon as it became clear it wasn't happening, I was like "what are you thinking?"
I can't remember if she dropped out of the Senate race before or after Hickenlooper got in.
Who’s ready for Epstein Files Phase 2?
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/31/jeffrey-epstein-khanna-massie-00538394
https://archive.ph/56YBX
The young 34 year old mayor of Cleveland speaks to me so much. We aren’t going to wait, we are taking control whether the establishment wants us to or not.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/31/clevelands-mayor-wants-democrats-to-know-millennials-like-him-are-impatient-and-ready-to-lead-00537541
https://archive.ph/48A6O
You’re a millennial. What are Democrats missing about millennials?
That we’re impatient.
Say more.
When I ran for mayor, a lot of folks — a lot of establishment Democrats in the party — told me to wait my turn. We are impatient about this country, because we know what crises look like … because we’ve experienced them firsthand — from 9/11 to the great recession to two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the pandemic.
But we’re also the most entrepreneurial generation as well.
The younger generations also have a lot to be angry about, seeing how the older generations brought about global warming. I can only hope that while working with both hands tied behind your backs by the irresponsibility of your elders, you act much more wisely than my generation (X) has. Humanity depends on it.
I'm Gen Z and I hope so too. I'm worried about a rightward shift in my generation, but I have also heard that Trump's popularity is falling among Gen Z so I have that to hope for at least.
It isn't just Cleveland's Mayor. There have been handfuls of millennials who have been elected Mayors as well who have a greater social consciousness than generations prior and also seem to be trying to deal with housing affordability in a more serious way.
CA State Senator Jesse Arreguin, who at the age of 40 had previously served as Mayor of Berkeley for two terms from 2017-2025, was laser focused on creating more affordable housing in the city when he was mayor. Saw him multiple times catching the bus in and around North Berkeley. From his leadership, Berkeley's average monthly rent has in recent months started to drop.
Or former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs who ended up spearheading a universal basic income initiative in the city before he turned 30. This ended up increasing consumer spending whereas the City of Stockton has struggled over the 10+ years since the Great Recession.
Impatience results in greater urgency in addressing immediate problems that are tied to basic bread and butter issues.
How do you know rent is dropping in Berkeley due to his leadership? Rent is dropping across many markets throughout the country do to the cooling economy, specifically in the housing market.
Berkeleyside has an article on the housing market in Berkeley. Housing activists have cited the city’s aggressive measures to build housing as evidence.
This has started with Arreguin when he was Mayor of Berkeley. Previously, Tom Bates didn’t do much. Berkeley also happens to be a pro-tenant city so more inclusive discourse is present as opposed to SF where corporate developers have been a lobby for a long time.
https://www.berkeleyside.org/2025/05/01/berkeley-housing-rent-prices-data
Per Zillow Berkeley has seen a higher percentage increase in rental prices over the past 7 ish years than San Francisco, Palo Alto and Oakland.
And real estate values are going down these days. As someone who lives in Berkeley, whatever increase in rental prices are nothing compared to how much it costs in San Francisco, Palo Alto, etc.
That said, the prices of rent are in fact decreasing these days although in recent months, not for years.
Now here's something interesting.
FL-21:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/748695-an-ideal-candidate-pia-dandiyas-cd-21-bid-adds-nods-from-dave-aronberg-patrick-murphy/
Several Florida Dems, including Patrick Murphy (a pretty big name), are backing what I believe to be the long-shot campaign of Pia Dandiya to unseat GOP Rep. Brian Mast in an R+7 district. Dandiya apparently is a former high school principal who is currently a public sector initiative leader at Apple.
I do not believe this seat is remotely flippable but I am curious that big names like Murphy are getting involved. I'd ask if there's secretly hidden potential here, but Florida is about to gerrymander their map so I'm not making any comments.
Mast's seat could possibly be unpacked to around Trump+10-12 to make Lois Frankel's seat winnable for Rs.
If Dandiya can put a scare into Mast, it might discourage that. It helps to put up credible threats even if they don't directly flip any seats.
On this race, I don’t think I ever saw it mentioned on TDB, but Padiya’s fundraising is impressive. This is one of those reach seats that can fall in a wave big enough (dependent on whether the GOP redraws it or not):
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/746401-pia-dandiya-reports-raising-400k-in-first-month-running-to-unseat-brian-mast-in-cd-21/
In just her first 29 days running, Dandiya’s campaign reported that she raised more than $400,000 — almost exactly as much as Mast raised in the first three months of 2025.
FYI I had a chance to meet Dandiya a few weeks ago. She’s very impressive and would make a great representative. Thanks to Mast for his service but beyond that he has nothing to offer other than tired GOP talking points.
There are statewide elections in Georgia for two seats on the Public Service Commission in November, does anyone have any thoughts about how the Democratic candidates might do, and if it could be a signal about what the chances are next year for the senatorial and gubernatorial races?
The special elections in Nov 2025, are expected to have low turnout. And anything could happen. In the primary for these specials the turnout dropped to mid single digit, and there were Dem ballots twice as many as Rs.
Ig they will not tell much about the midterm. The midterm is shaping up as another high turnout one with over 4 million votes expected.
Since I’m assuming there’s no digest or open thread for labor day, here’s a great in depth interview about Graham Platner with a couple paragraphs of answers from him to entice you to read it entirely.
Happy labor day all!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/can-a-populist-oyster-farmer-end-susan-collins-s-career/ar-AA1Lxewu?cvid=96ae001e73e34c748e8672e971330943&ei=10
This is sort of related, but how are you tapping into what seems to be an anti-Establishment feeling within the American electorate right now?
I think you focus specifically on the things that unite pretty much all working people in the United States. Health care, housing, child care, a feeling that they have watched immense amounts of money get spent on horrific foreign wars while they’ve gotten none of the things they need. Talk about those things. People respond to the material conditions that are their lives. I believe that. I believe it because I see it every day. I don’t have to read some focus-group paper on how we should talk to working-class people. I make $50,000 a year, and I live in a town of a thousand. I’m a working-class person who lives in a working-class town. I don’t believe in magic words. There’s this thing right now where everyone’s like, “Well, what if we change the words?” Then we’ll message differently. And that’s insane. Again, I don’t think people are idiots. It’s not a messaging problem.
,
People know that when you’re trying to tailor the message, it’s because you’re not trying to change the content or the actual context of what you are saying. The discussion about how we need to use different words, I find it so absurd because by openly having that conversation, you are stating that you don’t want to change anything. You just want to change how you talk about it. I think people see this stuff as just a bunch of weird focus groups politicking, and that’s what they hate. It’s what I hate. It’s why I’m here. It’s why I’m doing this. I can’t stand that stuff. I think it’s ineffective. I think it alienates people. I also think that it’s the reason a lot of people have given up.
,
So you don’t get dragged into that stuff. You don’t have to run away from your ideals. You don’t have to sell anybody out. You don’t have to say that you believe something you don’t or that you don’t believe something that you do. What you have to do is engage people with the reality they know to be true, which is that they live in a society that is not built for them at all. They live in a society that is built to enrich very, very few people, and it is meant to extract as much wealth and time and energy out of them for that group’s benefit as possible. Everybody knows this. Republicans know it, Democrats know it. Progressives know it. Trump voters know it. Go across the working class of this country, and ask people if they think they live in a society that is designed for their benefit. Not a single one of them is going to say “yes.” And the way that you tap into that is you tell them the truth that they already know. You say that is correct. The people who are screwing you are way up there, and they have accrued all the money and all the power, and they’re going to continue doing it until we start building power of our own.
Except for his actually being a member of the working class, these excerpts read like Bernie to me.
A gallup poll shows Trump's support among non-college educated voters has rebounded but is not at the high it was during 2024. Originally back in 2024, 56% of non-college educated voters approved of Trump.
By July, Trump's approval rating for these voters was at 38% but then by last month, 45% non-college educated voters approved of Trump's job as POTUS.
This lies the question - For those non-college educated voters, in which states does Trump not have the best ratings?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-s-approval-rating-changes-with-low-educated-americans/ar-AA1LD3wd?ocid=BingHp01&pc=W931&cvid=a570b0788cb94770d737fc95f1e9a79b&ei=14
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Donald Trump's standing with Americans without a college degree—a group central to his political base—has swung noticeably over the past three months.
Gallup polling shows that in June, 41 percent of non-college-educated Americans approved of Trump's job performance, while 56 percent disapproved. His numbers dipped slightly in July, with 38 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. But by August, Trump saw a rebound: 45 percent of non-college voters approved of his performance, compared to 49 percent who disapproved.
Why It Matters
Non college-educated Americans have long supported Trump. In 2024, he won 56 percent of Americans without a college degree, up from 51 percent in 2020.
The recent rebound in his approval rating with this group suggests that his populist messaging and economic appeals may still resonate, even as he struggles with college-educated voters.
People are still hoping a duck that says it’s a duck and acts like a duck is actually a beautiful swan. They don’t want to admit how stupid they were, so they keep thinking Trump will improve prices or the economy magically as time passes on. Once those price increases hit from tariffs most will wake from their fantasy.
So far most companies have chosen to absorb the costs instead of passing them onto consumers, but that’s changing slowly the longer the trade wars go on. At some point there will be a major sticker shock and the uneducated will realize what they actually voted for (though they’ll never admit their part in it, they’ll get mad at the current party in power for not stopping inflation).
Just like they did with Democrats and Biden and just in time for the midterms.
I mean some of it can just be noise between samples not sure on their methodology. Assuming it's real though Trump has been kind of hammering out red meat nonsense for the poorly educated. Crime crack down on DC, Tariffing foreign countries, flag burning etc. I think the bigger question is when the tariffs start taking a bite do they care or are higher prices only a problem when someone not named Trump is in office.
Noise is a likely explanation. Gallup stopped being the gold standard of polls a long time ago!
If there are other polls besides Gallup that can dive more deeply into non-college voters, I can certainly look more into this.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised that there hasn't been much movement at all. It's not like the fluctuation in data has made a gigantic difference.