Jones hasn't gotten any credit for reduced crime rates and there was a rather public failure by the city to clear the roads after a snowstorm last month. Spencer's been leading in the polls, but approval voting does lead to some uncertainty. Both pretty progressive. Spencer arguably to Jones's left.
I’m going to rate this race as tossup but tiling to Lean Democrat depending on where things go in the coming months.
I don’t think Winsome Earle-Sears is going to have an easy time defending her pro right-to-work view while there are many federal employees living in or near NoVa picketing over Trump, Musk and Russell Vought’s actions.
The one thing she has going for her is that the Old Dominion remains a so called "right to work" state and said law has traditionally received support from many moderate to centrist Democrats here, including Senator Mark Warner. Just one decade ago, if anyone had suggested that all Virginia Democratic State Senators would vote against shrining such a law into the Virginia Constitution, people would have laughed in your face and at minimum questioned your sanity.
Yes but if Earle-Sears is defending the right to work law and is going to be completely on Trump's side regarding the protests, then federal workers are going to think she's wishy-washy when it comes to being on their side. If anything, more federal workers are going to want to join unions if they aren't already.
The right to work law isn't necessarily going to be challenged but Earle-Sears is going to have her feet held to the fire by federal workers if she isn't going to fight against Trump and his administration. Same goes with Governor Glenn Youngkin if he wants to pursue higher office.
I don’t think this is a tossup. A Republican in the White House, a Democratic leaning state, federal employee layoffs, a bit of an extreme right-winger, all say Democratic favored to me.
Cook Political Report did rate the VA-GOV race as a tossup as of January 24th. However, I’m probably being a bit conservative with my assessment.
That said, in the news it does seem that already the gubernatorial race is being looked at as heavily impacted by the federal worker firings. Earle-Sears is showing no indication she’s budging on this issue other than being a pro-Trump stooge.
Cook et al always rate anything that will be competitive as tossup when we're this far out. They're all cautious and are working from a position of needing to revise the rating in ways that would be perceived as whiplash as little as possible.
Assuming things go the way we expect, this will be shifted towards us the election cycle begins in earnest. I wouldn't expect anything before late summer / early fall on that front. With the possible exception of if something major comes out that shifts the election.
Cook Political Report does in fact have very good polling analysis and assessment. I respect their work even if they don’t always take into account immediately disruptive things happening at the national stage.
I expect what happens with the federal worker situation, DOGE, etc. will have to evolve over time in the coming months heading further into the VA-GOV in order to make an impact with CPR and others who make their assessments.
Not only that, Abigail Spanberger served at the CIA during the Bush and Obama administrations from 2006-2014. She gets instant credibility from federal workers because she was one of them prior to serving in elected office.
Spanberger is most definitely not another Terry McAuliffe type of candidate. Winsome Earle-Sears and the VA GOP better hold on to their butts.
Candidate quality used to mean a lot but with how easy it is to raise money and get millionaire PACs to run ads nowadays, Spanberger’s amazing record can get distorted by millions of dollars worth of lies. I think it’s Lean D based off of everything but pointing to how great of a candidate she is doesn’t get the weight that it used to.
Which, damn. I miss ticket splitting. I miss the candidates themselves being meaningful. I miss the days when someone might have to run for House three cycles in a row to win bc they have to build up name recognition and fundraising.
I have a hunch that will be a problem but not nearly as big a problem if someone like the impersonator in the WH were on the ballot at the same time. When he is not on the ballot elections tend to return a little more to the norm...which this one will do!
Spanberger's record may get distorted by big money interests but they aren't going to be able to easily spin the problems with the federal worker firings.
Anything Spanberger's campaign as well as other big money interests favoring her will simply fire back or go on the offensive as long as Winsome Earle-Sears is going to represent the status quo.
Republicans are beginning to panic over the DOGE haphazard cuts and firings.
Senators Moran from Kansas and Capito from WV are privately urging restoration of USAID and medical research funding as both impact their states.
Rep Simpson of Idaho is pushing back against thousands of firings in the National Park service and Rep Bresnahan from Northern PA is outright saying he will oppose any funding bill with steep benefit cuts.
Seems Republicans can no longer ignore the fact that the 'evil federal government' provides lifelines to...largely Republican states. What a joke.
Be funny if we convinced the GOP voters that federal dollars should be doled out proportionately to how they are paid in by the states. They’d eat that shit up for a good week before realizing what moochers they are.
I wonder how easy it’d be with social media these days. All it takes some viral memes bitching about CA getting money from TN to pay for prisoner sex surgeries.
I am morbidly interested in Trump/Musk’s accelerating race towards raging inflation and economic meltdown. Would not be surprised if Team Trump is also racing towards the seizure of selected assets – tax dollars that go back to blue states, assets owned by pro-democracy demonstrators etc.
2. Special election: Iowa State House 100, March 11
Democratic auto repair shop owner Nannette Griffin is running in this special election in Lee County, Iowa, in the southeastern corner of the state, overlapping IA-01, the closest US House district won by a Republican last year.
According to State Navigator, formerly CNalysis, Trump carried the state house district by 27; for US House: R+14.
In an Iowa special state senate election a couple of weeks ago,
The primary for a State Senate special in CA-36 is Feb. 25. Top 2 advance to April GE. One of the rs is a Huntington Beach Maga. I voted for Jimmy Pham-D
The Trump NASCAR curse continues: the Daytona 500, with Trump in attendance for the pre-race ceremonies, is in a weather delay because of rain and thunderstorms.
The 2020 Daytona 500 and the 2024 Coca-Cola 600, both attended by Trump, were also rain-affected races.
The St. Louis mayoral race could be very interesting, as incumbent Tishaura Jones is fending off a challenge from Cara Spencer.
What are the main issues in the race?
As a local, Spencer is very likely to win imo.
Why is that?
Jones hasn't gotten any credit for reduced crime rates and there was a rather public failure by the city to clear the roads after a snowstorm last month. Spencer's been leading in the polls, but approval voting does lead to some uncertainty. Both pretty progressive. Spencer arguably to Jones's left.
Not clearing roads after a snowstorm is an excellent reason to vote against a mayor, as that's a basic service.
VA-GOV:
I’m going to rate this race as tossup but tiling to Lean Democrat depending on where things go in the coming months.
I don’t think Winsome Earle-Sears is going to have an easy time defending her pro right-to-work view while there are many federal employees living in or near NoVa picketing over Trump, Musk and Russell Vought’s actions.
The one thing she has going for her is that the Old Dominion remains a so called "right to work" state and said law has traditionally received support from many moderate to centrist Democrats here, including Senator Mark Warner. Just one decade ago, if anyone had suggested that all Virginia Democratic State Senators would vote against shrining such a law into the Virginia Constitution, people would have laughed in your face and at minimum questioned your sanity.
Yes but if Earle-Sears is defending the right to work law and is going to be completely on Trump's side regarding the protests, then federal workers are going to think she's wishy-washy when it comes to being on their side. If anything, more federal workers are going to want to join unions if they aren't already.
The right to work law isn't necessarily going to be challenged but Earle-Sears is going to have her feet held to the fire by federal workers if she isn't going to fight against Trump and his administration. Same goes with Governor Glenn Youngkin if he wants to pursue higher office.
I don’t think this is a tossup. A Republican in the White House, a Democratic leaning state, federal employee layoffs, a bit of an extreme right-winger, all say Democratic favored to me.
Cook Political Report did rate the VA-GOV race as a tossup as of January 24th. However, I’m probably being a bit conservative with my assessment.
That said, in the news it does seem that already the gubernatorial race is being looked at as heavily impacted by the federal worker firings. Earle-Sears is showing no indication she’s budging on this issue other than being a pro-Trump stooge.
https://virginiamercury.com/briefs/cook-political-report-calls-virginia-governors-race-a-toss-up/
https://apnews.com/article/virginia-governors-race-earlesears-spanberger-federal-workers-94ee683b86836d83f1fbd97411cedfc8
Cook et al always rate anything that will be competitive as tossup when we're this far out. They're all cautious and are working from a position of needing to revise the rating in ways that would be perceived as whiplash as little as possible.
Assuming things go the way we expect, this will be shifted towards us the election cycle begins in earnest. I wouldn't expect anything before late summer / early fall on that front. With the possible exception of if something major comes out that shifts the election.
Cook Political Report does in fact have very good polling analysis and assessment. I respect their work even if they don’t always take into account immediately disruptive things happening at the national stage.
I expect what happens with the federal worker situation, DOGE, etc. will have to evolve over time in the coming months heading further into the VA-GOV in order to make an impact with CPR and others who make their assessments.
Abagail Spanberger is running for Gov, right? Definite lean+ D!
Not only that, Abigail Spanberger served at the CIA during the Bush and Obama administrations from 2006-2014. She gets instant credibility from federal workers because she was one of them prior to serving in elected office.
Spanberger is most definitely not another Terry McAuliffe type of candidate. Winsome Earle-Sears and the VA GOP better hold on to their butts.
Candidate quality used to mean a lot but with how easy it is to raise money and get millionaire PACs to run ads nowadays, Spanberger’s amazing record can get distorted by millions of dollars worth of lies. I think it’s Lean D based off of everything but pointing to how great of a candidate she is doesn’t get the weight that it used to.
Which, damn. I miss ticket splitting. I miss the candidates themselves being meaningful. I miss the days when someone might have to run for House three cycles in a row to win bc they have to build up name recognition and fundraising.
I have a hunch that will be a problem but not nearly as big a problem if someone like the impersonator in the WH were on the ballot at the same time. When he is not on the ballot elections tend to return a little more to the norm...which this one will do!
Spanberger's record may get distorted by big money interests but they aren't going to be able to easily spin the problems with the federal worker firings.
Anything Spanberger's campaign as well as other big money interests favoring her will simply fire back or go on the offensive as long as Winsome Earle-Sears is going to represent the status quo.
Republicans are beginning to panic over the DOGE haphazard cuts and firings.
Senators Moran from Kansas and Capito from WV are privately urging restoration of USAID and medical research funding as both impact their states.
Rep Simpson of Idaho is pushing back against thousands of firings in the National Park service and Rep Bresnahan from Northern PA is outright saying he will oppose any funding bill with steep benefit cuts.
Seems Republicans can no longer ignore the fact that the 'evil federal government' provides lifelines to...largely Republican states. What a joke.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/14/doge-trump-omb-gop-00204435
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/02/14/congress/vulnerable-house-republican-bresnahan-warns-against-benefit-cuts-00204354
Republicans love big government as long as it benefits them and their rich friends. Watch how they defend farm subsidies.
I mean, the GOP bankrolled the Iraq War without accountability for four years before they finally decided to take action…
…As a result of the 2006 midterms!
Yet they'll just pray the Supremes stop them and the Trump Administration magically abides by it. Cowards Caucus.
“Vote no hope yes” strikes again. Anything to avoid having to tell Fox News and the podcasters “no”
Be funny if we convinced the GOP voters that federal dollars should be doled out proportionately to how they are paid in by the states. They’d eat that shit up for a good week before realizing what moochers they are.
I wonder how easy it’d be with social media these days. All it takes some viral memes bitching about CA getting money from TN to pay for prisoner sex surgeries.
Speaking of which, are we entirely sure that taxpayers are not footing the bill to have Trump’s pubic hair transplanted to his pate?
you are assuming he has pubic hair!
Well, perhaps not after the transplants.
Waiting for them to actually do something and not just be concerned.
I am morbidly interested in Trump/Musk’s accelerating race towards raging inflation and economic meltdown. Would not be surprised if Team Trump is also racing towards the seizure of selected assets – tax dollars that go back to blue states, assets owned by pro-democracy demonstrators etc.
As long as it helps elect Democrats, fine with me.
Otherwise, it isn’t good policy.
Races of interest:
1. Writing postcards for Wisconsin Supreme Court April 1 -
info and addresses from Tony the Democrat at https://postcardstovoters.org/
2. Special election: Iowa State House 100, March 11
Democratic auto repair shop owner Nannette Griffin is running in this special election in Lee County, Iowa, in the southeastern corner of the state, overlapping IA-01, the closest US House district won by a Republican last year.
According to State Navigator, formerly CNalysis, Trump carried the state house district by 27; for US House: R+14.
In an Iowa special state senate election a couple of weeks ago,
Democrats flipped a Trump +21 district.
https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3lgu4vp3b2c2n
Nannette Griffin’s website: https://www.nannetteforiowa.com/
Info: https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/02/10/nannette-griffin-is-running-for-iowa-house-district-100/
Thanks for the John Lennon song!
Been thinking of a line from his song Mind Games from the year before:
"Millions of mind guerrillas putting their soul power to the karmic wheel"
We have to bend the moral arc of the universe towards justice!
I will provide the link later but we easily held BOTH Delaware State Senate seats tonight!
Senate District 1 was a +14 Democratic overperformance from Harris.
Senate District 5 was a +3 Democratic overperformance from Harris
:)
As promised: https://www.delawarepublic.org/politics-government/2025-02-15/democrats-win-both-state-senate-special-elections-saturday
Democrats sure are on a roll with these special elections!
The primary for a State Senate special in CA-36 is Feb. 25. Top 2 advance to April GE. One of the rs is a Huntington Beach Maga. I voted for Jimmy Pham-D
The Trump NASCAR curse continues: the Daytona 500, with Trump in attendance for the pre-race ceremonies, is in a weather delay because of rain and thunderstorms.
The 2020 Daytona 500 and the 2024 Coca-Cola 600, both attended by Trump, were also rain-affected races.
For how godly NASCAR fans often are they sure ain’t taking the big man’s hint
Maybe they're praying for rain...