I am already interested in 2028. There are three categories in particular of races I am curious about:
- Who might run for Governor in the states that are up then?
- Who might run for Senate in the states that are up then?
- Who might try to primary who, in whatever party or from whatever ideological angle? Could be left-on-center, center-on-left, age-related or otherwise non-ideological, R primaries where the incumbent isn’t Trumpy enough, R primaries where the incumbent is a loon and is damaging the Republicans, etc.
I talked about WV when you were gone. Senator and former Gov. Jim Justice is considering a primary to Gov. Patrick Morrisey, as is state Treasurer Larry Pack. Morrisey is like the Ted Cruz of WV: universally hated, but reelected regardless. Pack would likely barely register. He has no name recognition. But Justice is another thing.
He has frequent conflicts with the legislature on budget, etc. which resulted in contested May primaries between Morrisey endorsed and more moderate candidates for the state Senate.
If Pack were to run, it would be for his opposition to Morrisey discontinuing school food vouchers.
Justice is different - he would not run on opposition to Morrisey, more his own record. He recently negotiated a deus ex machina to keep the historic and key Greenbrier estate in the hands of the state, not some out of state company.
He has some haters, but most of the state actually loves him. Morrisey is as establishment as it gets. Brought up rich in the NYC suburbs, was a powerful DC corporate lawyer, and carpetbagged to the Eastern Panhandle like many other politicians here. Justice is "born and bred", and is considered an outsider to the establishment despite still being a part of it. Being a coal baron also helps.
Jim Justice may have also benefitted from running for the Senate when Trump ran for POTUS again in 2024. Although Democratic Senate Candidate Glenn Elliott believed he had an opening by running against Justice and not against Trump, Trump still took up too much steam from the race anyway.
As someone who grew up in rural Ohio near the West Virginia border, I see West Virginia as being a part of the country where the prevailing political ideology is somewhat populist left on economics but extremely conservative on social issues and therefore a poor fit for either party. I get the idea that Justice gets this and is a better fit for the state than Morrisey, who is a more doctrinal economic and social conservative.
Spencer Cox is retiring in Utah. Sen. John Curtis is reportedly dissatisfied with Washington is considering a run. But former Rep. Jason Chaffetz has reportedly told supporters he already will run. State Rep. Mike Schultz, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson and Rep. Blake Moore are other potential candidates.
As for other gubernatorial elections, state Rep. Jim Walsh is considering a bid against WA Gov. Bob Ferguson, and state Auditor Dave Boliek is considering a bid against NC Gov. Josh Stein.
Bodnar could try, and just run as a Democrat this time and avoid the hassle. That or run as an independent and maybe have an actual *plan* in regards to the Democratic nominee this time?
Bodnar had every right to stay in, the most recent poll (right before the withdrawal deadline) had him 15 points ahead of Bankhead, and he has raised about 55 times more and would be actually competitive in a head-to-head against Alme. Bankhead only got the nomination because she was perceived as more likely to drop out, and decided to stab her voters and the party in the back and stay in.
I don't think Bodnar ever really had a shot of getting the Democrat to drop out. The field was set by the time he entered, and the only people to run were nobodies or borderline cranks. Had there been a semi-viable Democrat, he may never have ran at all. He obviously could avoid this in the future by recruiting a stronger candidate who'd drop out, but I wouldn't blame him this time for it.
AK-SEN: The other highest profile Democrat besides Mary Peltola that I can think of is Mark Begich. I’d like to see him make another run and he’s younger than Sherrod Brown is.
GA-SEN: Depending on the margin of re-election Jon Ossoff gets, I’d say Raphael Warnock won’t have too difficult of a time winning re-election. Certainly won’t be a tossup race.
NC-SEN: Others here are better at knowing who would be the prospective candidate.
NY-SEN: Chuck Schumer should be pushed to retire or get primaried.
WI-SEN: I know there’s been discussion before on how Senator Ron Johnson keeps on squeaking out wins since he first ran for the Senate back in 2010.
He unseated Senator Russ Feingold then, defeated him again by a smaller amount in 2016 and defeated Mandela Barnes by an even smaller amount in 2022.
However, what hasn’t been pointed out is that for the first time Johnson is running for re-election with Trump as the incumbent POTUS. I believe he was able to get by and win re-election when President Obama and President Biden were still POTUS. I don’t think Johnson will have his fighting advantage this time around.
Alaska is interesting as I can totally see Murkowski retiring, especially if Collins loses, and extra especially if ranked choice voting is removed in Alaska. I'm not sure she'd like being the only (relatively) moderate Republican, and she doesn't have a path to re-election without some support from centrists and liberals, who she has also burned some bridges with between 2022 and now.
I'm not sure what Murkowski did to burn bridges prior to Trump being elected POTUS again but her vote for the BBB, although conflicting for her, was the one vote I recall that got her plenty of angry Alaskans frustrated with her.
I’m curious how her and Collins explained no vote for Scalia SCOTUS replacement but yes vote for RBG replacement. The biggest hypocrisy in the history of American politics.. and that’s saying something.
I think Lander is waiting to challenge Gillibrand in 2030. Which I think he should, in my opinion Gillibrand has been doing a lousy job as both Senator and DSCC chair.
Question — if Jayapal runs, her House seat inevitably becomes a clusterfuck to replace her. Who specifically might run in such a case?
A Lander-Gillibrand primary would be interesting. I wonder what areas he could carry outside of NYC, as Gillibrand would probably win much of the Hudson Valley, Long Island and other parts of upstate.
King County Executive Girmay Zahilay and Seattle city councilor Joy Hollingsworth immediately come to mind for the Jayapal seat.
I see three sitting AG's as good 2028 Senate candidates- Jeff Jackson in North Carolina, Josh Kaul in Wisconsin and Leticia James in New York. Chuck Schumer will be 78 when his term ends and I think we have had enough of politicians staying in office until they are physically and mentally unable to do their job due to age.
AK-SEN: Mark Begich is an option, but we've also got his brother Tom Begich who could run too. I don't know who would be stronger but we've got two strong options there. I'm really curious how the dynamics of the race might play out with Murkowski... incumbent governor Dunleavy is already being mentioned as a potential primary challenger. Would the Democratic party want to be cautious as to not risk getting stuck with 100% shit Dunleavy as opposed to 90% shit Murkowski? Or would Murkowski try to run as an independent? I don't know.
GA-SEN: No notes here, a strong Ossoff win and a potential presidential candidacy will probably scare off any serious challengers. Warnock - Warnock rematch, anybody?
NC-SEN: State AG Jeff Jackson is the most obvious candidate to run.
NY-SEN: If AOC doesn't run for president and decides to run against Schumer, I think she wins. I don't know if others like Pat Ryan would try to run against him, but if he did he'd probably win too. Brad Lander is an interesting option too and he'd probably crush Schumer. I know some are hesitant because he'd be a freshman house rep, but it's not unheard of - Steve Daines and Tom Cotton ran for senate as freshman members of the house. And I think Lander is popular enough to where he could get away with it.
WI-SEN: Johnson has gotten incredibly lucky in that every election he's ran for has had a favorable partisan environment for him. In a Democratic-leaning environment against an incredibly strong candidate like Ben Wikler or Josh Kaul, he's toast. I'm pretty sure he's not going to run for re-election this time.
Take this with a grain of salt as it’s Bluesky, but someone on Bluesky who said they’re in the DSA in Grand Rapids said a while back they’re interviewing candidates to challenge Scholten. I fully expect her to get a challenge, along with Jeremy Moss who hasn’t been elected yet but is apparently attacking AES and not endorsing him, post-primary.
Seems to me we have a lot of progressives already elected, they just don't carry a label except "Democrat." Maybe once/if the Ds take Congress they can demonstrate some.of that better.
It gets better. Ralph Alvarado, the Republican nominee for the open House seat in KY-06, was Bevin's running mate in his unsuccessful bid for a second term in 2019. Great time for Bevin to get injected back into the news in a way that reminds people of what a ... whatever I could compare him to would be insulted by the comparison ... he is -- if you're Zach Dembo.
Cool. Well, in general, I'm wondering whether a less obviously partisan figure (someone who has served in the House, etc.) might be a stronger candidate, but he's certainly experienced in politics and a smart guy, so I'm glad he's considering a run.
I mean in this day and age I don't think you can be a "less obviously partisan figure" as long as you have a D or R next to your name.
And, in the context of 2028, being so closely tied to the Democratic party might not be a terrible thing, especially if Crowley wins, the state legislature flips, and Trump only fucks things up further.
News from the North: In an example of Life Imitating Art, 5 of the British Columbia MLAs who left the Conservative Party this past month are banding together to form a new centre-right party which is yet to be named.
This should not be confused with the OTHER centre-right party recently formed called CentreBC, which has no current representation in the legislature. Nor should it be confused with BC United, which is the rebranded BC Liberal Party and gave up before the 2024 election to endorse the Conservatives, but still exists as a registered party. To the right of the Conservatives is OneBC, which has one MLA. For those keeping count, that is five parties competing for the right wing of the electorate. The first major test happens in a few weeks, as the leader of the Judean People's...er, Conservative Party, Kerry-Lynn Findlay, competes in a byelection to get a seat in the legislature in the riding of Abbotsford-Mission, which would be safe in a two-way fight with the NDP but less so with two or three competitors peeling off support.
Can I just say thank you for posting these News from the North updates? I try to follow international news myself, including elections, and these posts are both interesting and highly relevant amidst this depressing nightmare trade war hell my country has stupidly inflicted on yours. Keep up the good work!
I appreciate the support, thank you! I know its hard for many people, regardless of country, to stay educated on their own national politics, let alone others, so making the effort is appreciated.
TIL Conley is LGBTQ. Particularly embarrassing for me not to have known that as I literally met her at a town event and plan to campaign for her once I find time amidst my busy college schedule.
I’m not sure Wiener is a lock, per se, for what it’s worth. I think he and Chan could be competitive. Then again, recently Chan-type left candidates have had poor luck in SF so Wiener may very well be favored.
Eh, Weiner has really shot himself in the foot with the Connie Chan AI bot fiasco and got serious heat by Nancy Pelosi, Chan and plenty of Asians in the city. I do not see how he’s getting momentum from this.
Comparing lower houses, this (13/435) is better than Canada's shockingly bad 5/343 and Australia's 4/150, but worse than the rest of the (western) Anglosphere, with Ireland's 8/174, New Zealand 9/123, and the U.K's 78/650. Things could be worse on this front, I guess.
The UK does have census data on sexual orientation and 12% parliamentary representation would be more than 3x larger 3.7% of the population that identified as Lesbian, Gay, or Bisexual. Though, an additional 1.1% identified as Other and 1.8% refused the question. And of course there's plenty of reason to suspect that not everyone is willing to officially declare their sexual orientation on the census form. I.e. the LGB rate in younger people is far higher, especially for bisexuality. Interestingly the number of people leaving the question blank has dropped considerably from 2019, with the growth in LGB or Other being far more at the expense of refusing the question than Heterosexual.
President Obama appears at a joint campaign event in Austin for Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico.
EDIT: It looks like this video was posted a few months back. I was surprised I had just found out about this three days ago.
That said, Obama campaigning for Hinojosa and Talarico this early on in the campaign is interesting. Usually Obama campaigns for candidates later in the election cycle.
Was he there for some other event as well? A fundraiser? To film something for the candidates? I can't imagine he flew all the way to Texas just to get a taco with two candidates.
Possibly although with the campaign appearances President Obama has made to support Democrats since he left office, you never know.
It was great to see him on the campaign trail talking directly to voters though as opposed to just speaking at a campaign rally. This is a smart move by the Hinojosa and Talarico camps. It’s like back in 2008 and 2012 again.
I'd like to see new Senate and House leadership on the Democratic side come January. Brian Schatz is pretty much a lock for whip, but I think Chris Van Hollen would be a better majority leader than Chuck Schumer. Definitely do not like Hakeem Jeffries for speaker, iffy on Katherine Clark for majority leader and Pete Aguilar for whip. Lauren Underwood and Sara Jacobs are both running for vice chair, and one of them might be better than Aguilar for whip.
At the risk of sounding pedantic, I personally wouldn’t want Cuellar, Torres, or Gottheimer either. And as progressive as I am, a bombthrower like Tlaib or Omar or likely DAC wouldn’t work either.
To be fair, I do dislike the current House leadership quite a bit. In my opinion, the Kushner meeting was disqualifying. Even if Jeffries wasn’t meeting for any actually terrible reason, it’s an awful look in this environment, pisses off the base at a time we really don’t want to do that, and unnecessary PR blunders like that are something I’d want a House Speaker to avoid.
I'd be happy putting the center of the Dem political universe squarely in Montgomery County Maryland with Raskin as Speaker and Van Hollen as Majority Leader
Many of you follow the internal Cong leadership juggling closer than I do, but in addition to Schatz and CVH, I'd add Chris Murphy, Tammy Baldwin, and Martin Heinrich to Sen Ds that I think would be better than Schumer and also good to elevate (since better than Schumer is a very low bar).
Kevin of Primary School just made a post arguing that our biggest Senate nominees are swimming in cash, and thus donations to less winnable races such as KS, MS, and FL are not actually that big wastes of money.
Thoughts? Personally I think state candidates need that money more, but I could see a case for less prominent Senate races being worthy of donations too. Lord knows Talarico already has shitloads of money.
Granted I'm not sure how much added benefit a campaign that's already swimming in cash gets from more money, but this isn't necessarily a bad idea... in a vacuum. Florida would just be lighting cash on fire and KS and MS are reach seats, and it's possible money is better spent on House or downballot races as opposed to reaches.
Personally, I don't think it's possible to give Talarico too much money. It's such a big state with so many media markets. He will spend every last penny he gets, and he'll probably need it.
I imagine we are probably still getting outraised in Maine due to the candidate switch--it isn't easy to suddenly build up a brand new base of donors. So Troy Jackson definitely seems like a candidate worth donating to as well.
And if I recall correctly, Turek was behind in money as well. If anyone has money to donate, it might make sense to donate to the 3 of them before donating to any other raises. But that's just my opinion.
Glenn "Kane" Jacobs finished his term as mayor of Knox County, Tennessee last week. He's a leading candidate to replace Marsha Blackburn in the Senate when she inevitably becomes governor in January, along with other East Tennessee politicians like Reps. Tim Burchett, who he succeeded as mayor, and Diana Harshbarger.
I don't really have a horse in this race but something that stuck out to me when I first saw this race pop up (besides Charlie Crist running for office *again*) was that Welch axed plans to build a new cancer center in the city.
As a cancer survivor myself, this is quite a personal issue for me, and I hope that Welch's political career meets the same fate as the cancer center he axed.
I think I would've preferred Click Bishop to make the ballot. He appears to be a more "normal Republican" with a focus on bipartisanship, so a lot of his voters might've potentially ranked JKT second, in a similar manner to what happened in the 2022 house race
In any case though, it's not like this hurts JKT or helps the Republicans
A lot of potential Bishop-JKT voters will probably just rank JKT first, I'm not sure that would've made a huge difference. Having three different conservative Republicans all running viable campaigns will maximize ballot exhaustion.
FL-Gov: Cynthia Chestnut, a Democratic Gainesville city commissioner, former state Rep. and mayor that was the political mentor of Andrew Gillum, endorsed...Byron Donalds?
VA-2: Take it with a grain of salt given the source, but apparently former Rep. Elaine Luria bought a second home outside of the district, in nearby Norfolk. The houses are apparently just down the street from one another.
Under the gerrymandered congressional map ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court, Luria would have lived in the new 2nd district. It's unclear if she would move inside of the current district, which includes Virginia Beach, Suffolk, the Eastern Shore and part of Chesapeake, if elected.
I haven't been keeping tabs on who lives outside of their district lately, but I know it's somewhere around ~40.
FL-21: Along with top Pete Hegseth aide Sean Parnell and assistant secretary Marc Andersen, Rep. Brian Mast, an Army veteran who chairs the House Foreign Affairs committee, is in talks to become the new U.S. Secretary of the Army.
The last time this happened was in 2009, when Democratic president Barack Obama nominated Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) for the post. His seat, now NY-21, flipped in an unusual special election.
Since it's so close to November, Mast's seat would certainly not be on the ballot until November 3. But FL-21 has a similar partisanship to NY-21, so if he is chosen, it could be primed for a flip in a potential special election.
Despite all the hand-wringing over the GOP $$$ investment in TX-Sen, we all knew this was coming right? They always have more money than us, and there’s no way they leave a seat on the table in such a red state. That said, Paxton is already so well-defined that this might be one race where an enormous bucket of cash simply has little effect. Especially when the disclaimer is “paid for by MAGA Inc.”
I am already interested in 2028. There are three categories in particular of races I am curious about:
- Who might run for Governor in the states that are up then?
- Who might run for Senate in the states that are up then?
- Who might try to primary who, in whatever party or from whatever ideological angle? Could be left-on-center, center-on-left, age-related or otherwise non-ideological, R primaries where the incumbent isn’t Trumpy enough, R primaries where the incumbent is a loon and is damaging the Republicans, etc.
I talked about WV when you were gone. Senator and former Gov. Jim Justice is considering a primary to Gov. Patrick Morrisey, as is state Treasurer Larry Pack. Morrisey is like the Ted Cruz of WV: universally hated, but reelected regardless. Pack would likely barely register. He has no name recognition. But Justice is another thing.
Is Justice less hated than Morrisey?
What has made Governor Morrisey unpopular?
He has frequent conflicts with the legislature on budget, etc. which resulted in contested May primaries between Morrisey endorsed and more moderate candidates for the state Senate.
If Pack were to run, it would be for his opposition to Morrisey discontinuing school food vouchers.
Justice is different - he would not run on opposition to Morrisey, more his own record. He recently negotiated a deus ex machina to keep the historic and key Greenbrier estate in the hands of the state, not some out of state company.
He has some haters, but most of the state actually loves him. Morrisey is as establishment as it gets. Brought up rich in the NYC suburbs, was a powerful DC corporate lawyer, and carpetbagged to the Eastern Panhandle like many other politicians here. Justice is "born and bred", and is considered an outsider to the establishment despite still being a part of it. Being a coal baron also helps.
Jim Justice may have also benefitted from running for the Senate when Trump ran for POTUS again in 2024. Although Democratic Senate Candidate Glenn Elliott believed he had an opening by running against Justice and not against Trump, Trump still took up too much steam from the race anyway.
As someone who grew up in rural Ohio near the West Virginia border, I see West Virginia as being a part of the country where the prevailing political ideology is somewhat populist left on economics but extremely conservative on social issues and therefore a poor fit for either party. I get the idea that Justice gets this and is a better fit for the state than Morrisey, who is a more doctrinal economic and social conservative.
Spencer Cox is retiring in Utah. Sen. John Curtis is reportedly dissatisfied with Washington is considering a run. But former Rep. Jason Chaffetz has reportedly told supporters he already will run. State Rep. Mike Schultz, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson and Rep. Blake Moore are other potential candidates.
As for other gubernatorial elections, state Rep. Jim Walsh is considering a bid against WA Gov. Bob Ferguson, and state Auditor Dave Boliek is considering a bid against NC Gov. Josh Stein.
If Jim Walsh gets into the top two in 2028, he might hand Washington Dems the supermajority they'll need to gerrymander the state :P
I'm hoping Jon Tester will consider running for Governor of Montana. However, he will be 72 at that time, so maybe somebody younger could run instead.
Bodnar could try, and just run as a Democrat this time and avoid the hassle. That or run as an independent and maybe have an actual *plan* in regards to the Democratic nominee this time?
Screw Bodnar. I blame him more than Bankhead for this. He didn't have to stay in.
Bodnar had every right to stay in, the most recent poll (right before the withdrawal deadline) had him 15 points ahead of Bankhead, and he has raised about 55 times more and would be actually competitive in a head-to-head against Alme. Bankhead only got the nomination because she was perceived as more likely to drop out, and decided to stab her voters and the party in the back and stay in.
I don't think Bodnar ever really had a shot of getting the Democrat to drop out. The field was set by the time he entered, and the only people to run were nobodies or borderline cranks. Had there been a semi-viable Democrat, he may never have ran at all. He obviously could avoid this in the future by recruiting a stronger candidate who'd drop out, but I wouldn't blame him this time for it.
On 2028:
AK-SEN: The other highest profile Democrat besides Mary Peltola that I can think of is Mark Begich. I’d like to see him make another run and he’s younger than Sherrod Brown is.
GA-SEN: Depending on the margin of re-election Jon Ossoff gets, I’d say Raphael Warnock won’t have too difficult of a time winning re-election. Certainly won’t be a tossup race.
NC-SEN: Others here are better at knowing who would be the prospective candidate.
NY-SEN: Chuck Schumer should be pushed to retire or get primaried.
WI-SEN: I know there’s been discussion before on how Senator Ron Johnson keeps on squeaking out wins since he first ran for the Senate back in 2010.
He unseated Senator Russ Feingold then, defeated him again by a smaller amount in 2016 and defeated Mandela Barnes by an even smaller amount in 2022.
However, what hasn’t been pointed out is that for the first time Johnson is running for re-election with Trump as the incumbent POTUS. I believe he was able to get by and win re-election when President Obama and President Biden were still POTUS. I don’t think Johnson will have his fighting advantage this time around.
Alaska is interesting as I can totally see Murkowski retiring, especially if Collins loses, and extra especially if ranked choice voting is removed in Alaska. I'm not sure she'd like being the only (relatively) moderate Republican, and she doesn't have a path to re-election without some support from centrists and liberals, who she has also burned some bridges with between 2022 and now.
I'm not sure what Murkowski did to burn bridges prior to Trump being elected POTUS again but her vote for the BBB, although conflicting for her, was the one vote I recall that got her plenty of angry Alaskans frustrated with her.
Didn’t she lose her primary in 2010 during the Tea Party, then win as a write in? I wonder if there’s lingering resentment from that.
I’m curious how her and Collins explained no vote for Scalia SCOTUS replacement but yes vote for RBG replacement. The biggest hypocrisy in the history of American politics.. and that’s saying something.
I'm thinking Welch, Blumenthal, Schumer, Grassley, Boozman, Moran, Bennet, Murray and Murkowski retire. So, as follows:
-Becca Balint in VT
-Primary between Matt Blumenthal and maybe Jahana Hayes in CT
-Who knows about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in NY. If not her, then Pat Ryan or maybe even Brad Lander.
-Pat Grassley in IA. I think he'll try to continue the dynasty.
-Sarah Huckabee Sanders could run in AR, but if she wins that means Leslie Rutledge would become governor for 2 years, whatever that could entail.
-Tracey Mann or Derek Schmidt in KS
-Joe Neguse or Jason Crow in CO. Would prefer the former over the latter.
-Lot of people in WA that could be interested. An interesting one would be Pramila Jayapal.
-Who knows in AK
I think Lander is waiting to challenge Gillibrand in 2030. Which I think he should, in my opinion Gillibrand has been doing a lousy job as both Senator and DSCC chair.
Question — if Jayapal runs, her House seat inevitably becomes a clusterfuck to replace her. Who specifically might run in such a case?
A Lander-Gillibrand primary would be interesting. I wonder what areas he could carry outside of NYC, as Gillibrand would probably win much of the Hudson Valley, Long Island and other parts of upstate.
King County Executive Girmay Zahilay and Seattle city councilor Joy Hollingsworth immediately come to mind for the Jayapal seat.
I see three sitting AG's as good 2028 Senate candidates- Jeff Jackson in North Carolina, Josh Kaul in Wisconsin and Leticia James in New York. Chuck Schumer will be 78 when his term ends and I think we have had enough of politicians staying in office until they are physically and mentally unable to do their job due to age.
James at 70 is not that much better. There are enough prominent politicians in New York to choose from that are decades younger.
I thought she was younger.
AK-SEN: Mark Begich is an option, but we've also got his brother Tom Begich who could run too. I don't know who would be stronger but we've got two strong options there. I'm really curious how the dynamics of the race might play out with Murkowski... incumbent governor Dunleavy is already being mentioned as a potential primary challenger. Would the Democratic party want to be cautious as to not risk getting stuck with 100% shit Dunleavy as opposed to 90% shit Murkowski? Or would Murkowski try to run as an independent? I don't know.
GA-SEN: No notes here, a strong Ossoff win and a potential presidential candidacy will probably scare off any serious challengers. Warnock - Warnock rematch, anybody?
NC-SEN: State AG Jeff Jackson is the most obvious candidate to run.
NY-SEN: If AOC doesn't run for president and decides to run against Schumer, I think she wins. I don't know if others like Pat Ryan would try to run against him, but if he did he'd probably win too. Brad Lander is an interesting option too and he'd probably crush Schumer. I know some are hesitant because he'd be a freshman house rep, but it's not unheard of - Steve Daines and Tom Cotton ran for senate as freshman members of the house. And I think Lander is popular enough to where he could get away with it.
WI-SEN: Johnson has gotten incredibly lucky in that every election he's ran for has had a favorable partisan environment for him. In a Democratic-leaning environment against an incredibly strong candidate like Ben Wikler or Josh Kaul, he's toast. I'm pretty sure he's not going to run for re-election this time.
Assuming she wins re-election, I would expect Hillary Scholten to face a primary challenge from the left in MI-3 in 2028.
Take this with a grain of salt as it’s Bluesky, but someone on Bluesky who said they’re in the DSA in Grand Rapids said a while back they’re interviewing candidates to challenge Scholten. I fully expect her to get a challenge, along with Jeremy Moss who hasn’t been elected yet but is apparently attacking AES and not endorsing him, post-primary.
I’m certainly not objecting if DSA can get Scholten primaried.
Clearly Haley Stevens is the real team player here.
It'd be really nice if there was a powerful progressive force in the party that wasn't the DSA
Seems to me we have a lot of progressives already elected, they just don't carry a label except "Democrat." Maybe once/if the Ds take Congress they can demonstrate some.of that better.
Where Are They Now?:
https://www.lex18.com/news/covering-kentucky/former-kentucky-gov-matt-bevin-arrested-on-movie-set-in-bourbon-county
Former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin has been ordered to spend 60 days in prison, related to a case that is ongoing involving child support.
Boo womp
Too many kids and an asshole father.
Bevin deserves this humiliation.
It gets better. Ralph Alvarado, the Republican nominee for the open House seat in KY-06, was Bevin's running mate in his unsuccessful bid for a second term in 2019. Great time for Bevin to get injected back into the news in a way that reminds people of what a ... whatever I could compare him to would be insulted by the comparison ... he is -- if you're Zach Dembo.
I’ve heard talk of Ben Wikler running against Johnson in ‘28.
Where?
From an elected Wisconsin official I know personally. Someone who knows him and is an insider in the goings-on of Wisconsin.
Cool. Well, in general, I'm wondering whether a less obviously partisan figure (someone who has served in the House, etc.) might be a stronger candidate, but he's certainly experienced in politics and a smart guy, so I'm glad he's considering a run.
I mean in this day and age I don't think you can be a "less obviously partisan figure" as long as you have a D or R next to your name.
And, in the context of 2028, being so closely tied to the Democratic party might not be a terrible thing, especially if Crowley wins, the state legislature flips, and Trump only fucks things up further.
I disagree with your first paragraph. I'll bet Crowley himself will seem less obviously partisan than a former party head.
News from the North: In an example of Life Imitating Art, 5 of the British Columbia MLAs who left the Conservative Party this past month are banding together to form a new centre-right party which is yet to be named.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ex-b-c-conservatives-join-new-party-9.7332441
This should not be confused with the OTHER centre-right party recently formed called CentreBC, which has no current representation in the legislature. Nor should it be confused with BC United, which is the rebranded BC Liberal Party and gave up before the 2024 election to endorse the Conservatives, but still exists as a registered party. To the right of the Conservatives is OneBC, which has one MLA. For those keeping count, that is five parties competing for the right wing of the electorate. The first major test happens in a few weeks, as the leader of the Judean People's...er, Conservative Party, Kerry-Lynn Findlay, competes in a byelection to get a seat in the legislature in the riding of Abbotsford-Mission, which would be safe in a two-way fight with the NDP but less so with two or three competitors peeling off support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Abbotsford-Mission_provincial_by-election
Hoping the Greens have the sense to not run a candidate in that by-election.
https://bcgreens.ca/announce-candidate-for-abbotsford-mission-byelection/
...
Yes, also the Libertarian Party, which amazingly is still a thing, will run a candidate. OneBC will not.
Can I just say thank you for posting these News from the North updates? I try to follow international news myself, including elections, and these posts are both interesting and highly relevant amidst this depressing nightmare trade war hell my country has stupidly inflicted on yours. Keep up the good work!
I appreciate the support, thank you! I know its hard for many people, regardless of country, to stay educated on their own national politics, let alone others, so making the effort is appreciated.
As a treat, do you guys want to see a dead body?
https://338canada.com/federal.htm
Strongly seconded!
Fun fact: With Everton Blair's swearing in, there are officially 14 openly LGBTQ+ members of Congress, the most in U.S. history.
Blair will leave office on January 3, but there is a potential to add (up to) 6 new LGBTQ+ House members (and one Senator) in the next Congress.
• NH-Sen: Chris Pappas
• AZ-6: JoAnna Mendoza
• CA-11: Scott Weiner
• CA-48: Marni von Wilpert
• MI-11: Jeremy Moss
• NY-17: Cait Conley
• VI-AL: Janelle Sarauw
TIL Conley is LGBTQ. Particularly embarrassing for me not to have known that as I literally met her at a town event and plan to campaign for her once I find time amidst my busy college schedule.
I’m not sure Wiener is a lock, per se, for what it’s worth. I think he and Chan could be competitive. Then again, recently Chan-type left candidates have had poor luck in SF so Wiener may very well be favored.
I didn't know either, actually. I only found out looking at the Victory Fund's website
Eh, Weiner has really shot himself in the foot with the Connie Chan AI bot fiasco and got serious heat by Nancy Pelosi, Chan and plenty of Asians in the city. I do not see how he’s getting momentum from this.
Please elaborate on what the fiasco consisted of.
Still pretty low. Census data shows a 9% LGBTQ+ population nationwide, which is about 48 representatives.
Sorry, what census data? Sexual orientation is not a census question.
Not census data. Poll data. Sorry, I don't know what I'm on about.
https://web.archive.org/web/20250220093555/https://news.gallup.com/poll/656708/lgbtq-identification-rises.aspx
Comparing lower houses, this (13/435) is better than Canada's shockingly bad 5/343 and Australia's 4/150, but worse than the rest of the (western) Anglosphere, with Ireland's 8/174, New Zealand 9/123, and the U.K's 78/650. Things could be worse on this front, I guess.
The UK does have census data on sexual orientation and 12% parliamentary representation would be more than 3x larger 3.7% of the population that identified as Lesbian, Gay, or Bisexual. Though, an additional 1.1% identified as Other and 1.8% refused the question. And of course there's plenty of reason to suspect that not everyone is willing to officially declare their sexual orientation on the census form. I.e. the LGB rate in younger people is far higher, especially for bisexuality. Interestingly the number of people leaving the question blank has dropped considerably from 2019, with the growth in LGB or Other being far more at the expense of refusing the question than Heterosexual.
TX-GOV and TX-SEN:
President Obama appears at a joint campaign event in Austin for Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico.
EDIT: It looks like this video was posted a few months back. I was surprised I had just found out about this three days ago.
That said, Obama campaigning for Hinojosa and Talarico this early on in the campaign is interesting. Usually Obama campaigns for candidates later in the election cycle.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dqSYDwHuE9U&pp=ygUYUHJlc2lkZW50IG9iYW1hIHRhbGFyaWNv&ra=m
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RJ-X3wDCjtc&pp=ygUYUHJlc2lkZW50IG9iYW1hIHRhbGFyaWNv&ra=m
Was he there for some other event as well? A fundraiser? To film something for the candidates? I can't imagine he flew all the way to Texas just to get a taco with two candidates.
Possibly although with the campaign appearances President Obama has made to support Democrats since he left office, you never know.
It was great to see him on the campaign trail talking directly to voters though as opposed to just speaking at a campaign rally. This is a smart move by the Hinojosa and Talarico camps. It’s like back in 2008 and 2012 again.
Is this from May, or did he make another trip?
I just edited the post. It was posted three months ago so roughly May or June.
Missouri Republicans file a federal lawsuit seeking to preserve the 2026 gerrymander.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/new-gop-lawsuit-aims-to-restore-missouris-gerrymandered-map/
Worth noting the suit was filed by Rep. Bob Onder.
I'd like to see new Senate and House leadership on the Democratic side come January. Brian Schatz is pretty much a lock for whip, but I think Chris Van Hollen would be a better majority leader than Chuck Schumer. Definitely do not like Hakeem Jeffries for speaker, iffy on Katherine Clark for majority leader and Pete Aguilar for whip. Lauren Underwood and Sara Jacobs are both running for vice chair, and one of them might be better than Aguilar for whip.
I’d like pretty much anyone but MGP for Speaker. Van Hollen strikes me as someone who is meeting the moment so I think that’s a good choice as well.
At the risk of sounding pedantic, I personally wouldn’t want Cuellar, Torres, or Gottheimer either. And as progressive as I am, a bombthrower like Tlaib or Omar or likely DAC wouldn’t work either.
To be fair, I do dislike the current House leadership quite a bit. In my opinion, the Kushner meeting was disqualifying. Even if Jeffries wasn’t meeting for any actually terrible reason, it’s an awful look in this environment, pisses off the base at a time we really don’t want to do that, and unnecessary PR blunders like that are something I’d want a House Speaker to avoid.
Out of Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar, the most tolerable is Clark. But even she is still not meeting the moment, it seems.
To be fair, she might not be able to as someone in the leadership team who can't upstage Jeffries by virtue of her position.
I'd be happy putting the center of the Dem political universe squarely in Montgomery County Maryland with Raskin as Speaker and Van Hollen as Majority Leader
Just as the current Republican House leadership is based in suburban Louisiana. Scalise in New Orleans, Johnson in Shreveport.
Me too.
Many of you follow the internal Cong leadership juggling closer than I do, but in addition to Schatz and CVH, I'd add Chris Murphy, Tammy Baldwin, and Martin Heinrich to Sen Ds that I think would be better than Schumer and also good to elevate (since better than Schumer is a very low bar).
I know how people feel about random Bluesky posts but I saw this and I genuinely want to know how posters here feel.
https://bsky.app/profile/reginageorgebush.bsky.social/post/3murr2xu63c2v
Kevin of Primary School just made a post arguing that our biggest Senate nominees are swimming in cash, and thus donations to less winnable races such as KS, MS, and FL are not actually that big wastes of money.
Thoughts? Personally I think state candidates need that money more, but I could see a case for less prominent Senate races being worthy of donations too. Lord knows Talarico already has shitloads of money.
Granted I'm not sure how much added benefit a campaign that's already swimming in cash gets from more money, but this isn't necessarily a bad idea... in a vacuum. Florida would just be lighting cash on fire and KS and MS are reach seats, and it's possible money is better spent on House or downballot races as opposed to reaches.
Personally, I don't think it's possible to give Talarico too much money. It's such a big state with so many media markets. He will spend every last penny he gets, and he'll probably need it.
I imagine we are probably still getting outraised in Maine due to the candidate switch--it isn't easy to suddenly build up a brand new base of donors. So Troy Jackson definitely seems like a candidate worth donating to as well.
And if I recall correctly, Turek was behind in money as well. If anyone has money to donate, it might make sense to donate to the 3 of them before donating to any other raises. But that's just my opinion.
https://www.ringsidenews.com/wwe-legend-kane-finishes-eight-year-run-knox-county-mayor/
Glenn "Kane" Jacobs finished his term as mayor of Knox County, Tennessee last week. He's a leading candidate to replace Marsha Blackburn in the Senate when she inevitably becomes governor in January, along with other East Tennessee politicians like Reps. Tim Burchett, who he succeeded as mayor, and Diana Harshbarger.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/818127-poll-charlie-crist-notches-majority-support-posts-25-point-lead-over-ken-welch/
St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: Poll by St. Pete (August 31-September 1)
Charlie Crist (D) 52%
Ken Welch (D-inc) 27%
Undecided 21%
I don't really have a horse in this race but something that stuck out to me when I first saw this race pop up (besides Charlie Crist running for office *again*) was that Welch axed plans to build a new cancer center in the city.
As a cancer survivor myself, this is quite a personal issue for me, and I hope that Welch's political career meets the same fate as the cancer center he axed.
AK Gov: Late last night, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom reversed her decision to reject Treg Taylor’s candidacy for governor and reinstated him on the ballot. He had been denied a place after a bipartisan campaign finance commission found that he had not submitted a financial disclosure as required by law. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/09/04/treg-taylor-is-back-in-alaskas-race-for-governor-after-election-officials-reverse-decision/
Taylor, a Republican, took fourth place in the primary with 7.3% of the vote.
Probably a net benefit for JKT, wonderful
I think I would've preferred Click Bishop to make the ballot. He appears to be a more "normal Republican" with a focus on bipartisanship, so a lot of his voters might've potentially ranked JKT second, in a similar manner to what happened in the 2022 house race
In any case though, it's not like this hurts JKT or helps the Republicans
A lot of potential Bishop-JKT voters will probably just rank JKT first, I'm not sure that would've made a huge difference. Having three different conservative Republicans all running viable campaigns will maximize ballot exhaustion.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/818690-chestnut-graham-donalds-jolly/
FL-Gov: Cynthia Chestnut, a Democratic Gainesville city commissioner, former state Rep. and mayor that was the political mentor of Andrew Gillum, endorsed...Byron Donalds?
Apparently so did ex-Dem-turned-"independent" John Morgan, of Morgan & Morgan. Said firm apparently gave Donalds a huge donation.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/818486-another-analysis-upgrades-david-jollys-chances-in-november-contingent-on-donors-backing-him/
What? Noooo
I thought he had integrity...
Now I'll change the station when his ads come on the radio.
why haven't you been changing the station already when his ads come on?
He seemed sincere and nice in them.
Because Jolly picked Graham and not a black or Latino.
Ah. And Donalds is Black and has a Latino running mate, of course. Tokens.
If that’s the real reason and not some corrupt deal at play, then that’s incredibly dumb of them.
The FL Democratic Party really is an utter mess.
https://conservativejournalreview.com/elaine-luria-promised-to-move-into-her-virginia-district-then-bought-a-second-home-outside-it/
VA-2: Take it with a grain of salt given the source, but apparently former Rep. Elaine Luria bought a second home outside of the district, in nearby Norfolk. The houses are apparently just down the street from one another.
Under the gerrymandered congressional map ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court, Luria would have lived in the new 2nd district. It's unclear if she would move inside of the current district, which includes Virginia Beach, Suffolk, the Eastern Shore and part of Chesapeake, if elected.
I haven't been keeping tabs on who lives outside of their district lately, but I know it's somewhere around ~40.
Norfolk is right next to the district. This is a conservative rag’s attempt to make a story out of nothing.
Sure. But it's still not in the district. I did say it was "nearby", and also did say to "take it with a grain of salt".
https://floridianpress.com/2026/09/rep-brian-mast-strong-contender-to-be-army-secretary/
FL-21: Along with top Pete Hegseth aide Sean Parnell and assistant secretary Marc Andersen, Rep. Brian Mast, an Army veteran who chairs the House Foreign Affairs committee, is in talks to become the new U.S. Secretary of the Army.
The last time this happened was in 2009, when Democratic president Barack Obama nominated Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) for the post. His seat, now NY-21, flipped in an unusual special election.
Since it's so close to November, Mast's seat would certainly not be on the ballot until November 3. But FL-21 has a similar partisanship to NY-21, so if he is chosen, it could be primed for a flip in a potential special election.
Despite all the hand-wringing over the GOP $$$ investment in TX-Sen, we all knew this was coming right? They always have more money than us, and there’s no way they leave a seat on the table in such a red state. That said, Paxton is already so well-defined that this might be one race where an enormous bucket of cash simply has little effect. Especially when the disclaimer is “paid for by MAGA Inc.”