We once thought Mitt Romney would be hard to beat back in 2012 if he became the GOP Presidential Nominee vs. if Rick Santorum was. He also served as Governor in a blue state and during the time when Bush Jr. was finishing off his first term as POTUS.
But Obama's re-election campaign was relentless in defining Romney early on in the campaign before the end of the summer, even well before the GOP convention.
That doesn't sound encouraging. Is there anything in the details that could reasonably see that trend reversing, eg geography of where votes have/have not been counted, or a difference in early vs e-day voting?
I know we've been way behind republicans on e-day turnout for a while, especially in Florida. Do we know what that has been like in Miami historically?
It's unfortunately a tale we keep seeing over and over again. Marginal persuadable voters conclude the election isn't that critical because things are "good enough" and they'll vote for a republican to lower their taxes. Simultaneously, a small but meaningful chunk of the left will conclude that because democrats are currently in power that we are the natural governing party and that "better" is getting in the way of their goal of "perfect". They either sit out the election or vote third party.
We saw it in 2000, in 2016, and 2024. I'm frustrated by 2000 and 2016, but I can see how they both happened due to the time gaps and the limits of cultural memory. I am still utterly baffled by it happening in 2024, so shortly after 2016. Especially since his first term with a big negative story in the form of Jan 6.
It’s nice reading the anecdotal stories about NYC Jews voting for Mamdani. So refreshing. I’m very curious what the ethnic breakdown of what the race will be once it’s certified.
THey're only rarely wrong by more than a couple of points. I almost always follow them because they're so close to right. When they're wrong, it's because they oversample Democrats. Any election night exit poll showing the race tied is almost always terrible news for Democrats.
First real results are in from VA. I'm watching the Spanberger-Jones delta. So far Spanberger's margin is 8% better than Jones' (her percentage is 4% better).
Keeping an eye on this - early returns have the delta a lot bigger in some places (in Chesterfield, it's 14). Should be lower in Black precincts, higher in wealthier suburbs.
It's indeed smaller in Jones' home base of Norfolk, about 5. Overall my suspicion is that this ends up at a 10 or 11 point under-run. If Spanberger wins by more than that, she'll drag Jones with her.
SOme of the first votes in from Buckingham County. Went twice for Obama but going Earle-Sears by 9 points so far. Not that I think it'll be predictive but an early sign that the rurals aren't yet poised to bounce back.
Yep. Southern rural whites were already pretty monolithically R. What changed recently is that Northern rural white folks started voting like Southern ones.
Glad he won, and not the creep.
Not quite, a supermajority in Virginia is a 2/3 majority
I’m sure Chris Christie is enjoying being a paid news commentator and not having to be Governor during a bloodbath for the GOP.
He’s probably saying, “I warned you about Trump when I ran for POTUS again in 2023!”
Question 2 is more close last I checked, something like 51 yes 49 no
That’s amazing AND with fair maps!
I hope this energizes Anderson Clayton and our state party to further break that GOP grip on our state next year.
The good news for Democrats just keeps on coming!
2026 is looking promising.
Jesus Christ!
I hope Youngkin runs for POTUS in 2028 and becomes the GOP nominee.
Democrats can turn him into the next Mitt Romney, especially considering Youngkin has a similar background going into politics.
We once thought Mitt Romney would be hard to beat back in 2012 if he became the GOP Presidential Nominee vs. if Rick Santorum was. He also served as Governor in a blue state and during the time when Bush Jr. was finishing off his first term as POTUS.
But Obama's re-election campaign was relentless in defining Romney early on in the campaign before the end of the summer, even well before the GOP convention.
You never know.
That doesn't sound encouraging. Is there anything in the details that could reasonably see that trend reversing, eg geography of where votes have/have not been counted, or a difference in early vs e-day voting?
I have to wonder what the post was and why it was deleted.
It was about the size of Jones' lead with the number of votes currently counted, saying his lead was dropping.
No idea why it was deleted. Maybe the source was concluded to be bad after the fact, or the trend had reversed?
I know we've been way behind republicans on e-day turnout for a while, especially in Florida. Do we know what that has been like in Miami historically?
I'll take it as a hopefully good sign either way.
How are they managing to get above Presidential turnout on a college campus? THat seems insane.
It's unfortunately a tale we keep seeing over and over again. Marginal persuadable voters conclude the election isn't that critical because things are "good enough" and they'll vote for a republican to lower their taxes. Simultaneously, a small but meaningful chunk of the left will conclude that because democrats are currently in power that we are the natural governing party and that "better" is getting in the way of their goal of "perfect". They either sit out the election or vote third party.
We saw it in 2000, in 2016, and 2024. I'm frustrated by 2000 and 2016, but I can see how they both happened due to the time gaps and the limits of cultural memory. I am still utterly baffled by it happening in 2024, so shortly after 2016. Especially since his first term with a big negative story in the form of Jan 6.
This is good news for Youngkin’s political future! /s
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kentucky-official-vote-election-new-york-virginia-b2858656.html
Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams has been forced to remind his citizens that they cannot vote in the elections in New York and Virginia.
It’s nice reading the anecdotal stories about NYC Jews voting for Mamdani. So refreshing. I’m very curious what the ethnic breakdown of what the race will be once it’s certified.
I did.
Virginia exit polls show enormous gender gap....point to double digit Spanberger win.
Exit polls less promising for Jones. Points to photo finish but probably a small edge to Miyares.
THey're only rarely wrong by more than a couple of points. I almost always follow them because they're so close to right. When they're wrong, it's because they oversample Democrats. Any election night exit poll showing the race tied is almost always terrible news for Democrats.
I'd wonder about social desirability bias in those, though.
Where are you seeing reliable exit poll data?
MSNBC website.
First real results are in from VA. I'm watching the Spanberger-Jones delta. So far Spanberger's margin is 8% better than Jones' (her percentage is 4% better).
Keeping an eye on this - early returns have the delta a lot bigger in some places (in Chesterfield, it's 14). Should be lower in Black precincts, higher in wealthier suburbs.
It's indeed smaller in Jones' home base of Norfolk, about 5. Overall my suspicion is that this ends up at a 10 or 11 point under-run. If Spanberger wins by more than that, she'll drag Jones with her.
I am increasingly confident that Jones has won. Big underperformance, but not enough to sink him.
SOme of the first votes in from Buckingham County. Went twice for Obama but going Earle-Sears by 9 points so far. Not that I think it'll be predictive but an early sign that the rurals aren't yet poised to bounce back.
Buckingham went for Youngkin by 27 in 2021.
Haven't the Obama rurals been gone for quite a while now, for the most part?
There's not a lot of them in Virginia. Only a handful of Obama-Trump rurals.
Yep. Southern rural whites were already pretty monolithically R. What changed recently is that Northern rural white folks started voting like Southern ones.
True, but rural Virginia still overwhelmingly voted Dem downballot for Warner in 2008. Not much of a whisper since, but atill.