That doesn't sound encouraging. Is there anything in the details that could reasonably see that trend reversing, eg geography of where votes have/have not been counted, or a difference in early vs e-day voting?
Latest update: Hampton Roads Black precincts ourforming “Youngkin surge” precincts across the board. In other words the *worst* performing Black majority precinct there today is outperforming the *best* “Youngkin surge” precinct.
Trump is President now. It’s really as simple as that sadly. Democrats go to sleep until Trump gets elected and then they turnout en masse. Would be nice if they actually did so before he won, but that is the world we unfortunately live in.
It's unfortunately a tale we keep seeing over and over again. Marginal persuadable voters conclude the election isn't that critical because things are "good enough" and they'll vote for a republican to lower their taxes. Simultaneously, a small but meaningful chunk of the left will conclude that because democrats are currently in power that we are the natural governing party and that "better" is getting in the way of their goal of "perfect". They either sit out the election or vote third party.
We saw it in 2000, in 2016, and 2024. I'm frustrated by 2000 and 2016, but I can see how they both happened due to the time gaps and the limits of cultural memory. I am still utterly baffled by it happening in 2024, so shortly after 2016. Especially since his first term with a big negative story in the form of Jan 6.
Tonight’s the night we send a message to the king and his lackeys: we are coming for your jobs and you can’t stop us. We outnumber you. Or in other words:
The Empire Struck Back in 2024, but now it’s The Return of the Jedi in 2025.
I know we've been way behind republicans on e-day turnout for a while, especially in Florida. Do we know what that has been like in Miami historically?
It’s nice reading the anecdotal stories about NYC Jews voting for Mamdani. So refreshing. I’m very curious what the ethnic breakdown of what the race will be once it’s certified.
Exit polls are usually wrong, regardless of what they say and which party they favour. I personally never pay attention to them, the votes are what matters.
THey're only rarely wrong by more than a couple of points. I almost always follow them because they're so close to right. When they're wrong, it's because they oversample Democrats. Any election night exit poll showing the race tied is almost always terrible news for Democrats.
First real results are in from VA. I'm watching the Spanberger-Jones delta. So far Spanberger's margin is 8% better than Jones' (her percentage is 4% better).
Keeping an eye on this - early returns have the delta a lot bigger in some places (in Chesterfield, it's 14). Should be lower in Black precincts, higher in wealthier suburbs.
It's indeed smaller in Jones' home base of Norfolk, about 5. Overall my suspicion is that this ends up at a 10 or 11 point under-run. If Spanberger wins by more than that, she'll drag Jones with her.
SOme of the first votes in from Buckingham County. Went twice for Obama but going Earle-Sears by 9 points so far. Not that I think it'll be predictive but an early sign that the rurals aren't yet poised to bounce back.
Yep. Southern rural whites were already pretty monolithically R. What changed recently is that Northern rural white folks started voting like Southern ones.
That doesn't sound encouraging. Is there anything in the details that could reasonably see that trend reversing, eg geography of where votes have/have not been counted, or a difference in early vs e-day voting?
I have to wonder what the post was and why it was deleted.
It was about the size of Jones' lead with the number of votes currently counted, saying his lead was dropping.
No idea why it was deleted. Maybe the source was concluded to be bad after the fact, or the trend had reversed?
Reposted since it was late:
It’s not 2021, but is it 2017? Time will tell!
https://x.com/notlarrysabato/status/1985815786250703069
Ben Tribbett
@notlarrysabato
Latest update: Hampton Roads Black precincts ourforming “Youngkin surge” precincts across the board. In other words the *worst* performing Black majority precinct there today is outperforming the *best* “Youngkin surge” precinct.
This is good news for Youngkin’s political future! /s
Republicans won this district by 1 point in 2023.
https://x.com/DaysYoungkin/status/1985821706850615298
Miyares Will Win
@DaysYoungkin
The numbers in Roanoke county tell me that the race in HD41 is already over. Wouldn’t be surprised if Lily Franklin wins by 5-7 at this rate.
Or if you prefer a nonpartisan source:
https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1985824536915235142
Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombe
ALL THREE campus precincts at Virginia Tech are on track to be over 100% of its total 2024 presidential vote turnout (A3,F3,E3)
Obenshain is done unless he has a lot of student support.
How are they managing to get above Presidential turnout on a college campus? THat seems insane.
Trump is President now. It’s really as simple as that sadly. Democrats go to sleep until Trump gets elected and then they turnout en masse. Would be nice if they actually did so before he won, but that is the world we unfortunately live in.
It's unfortunately a tale we keep seeing over and over again. Marginal persuadable voters conclude the election isn't that critical because things are "good enough" and they'll vote for a republican to lower their taxes. Simultaneously, a small but meaningful chunk of the left will conclude that because democrats are currently in power that we are the natural governing party and that "better" is getting in the way of their goal of "perfect". They either sit out the election or vote third party.
We saw it in 2000, in 2016, and 2024. I'm frustrated by 2000 and 2016, but I can see how they both happened due to the time gaps and the limits of cultural memory. I am still utterly baffled by it happening in 2024, so shortly after 2016. Especially since his first term with a big negative story in the form of Jan 6.
Tonight’s the night we send a message to the king and his lackeys: we are coming for your jobs and you can’t stop us. We outnumber you. Or in other words:
The Empire Struck Back in 2024, but now it’s The Return of the Jedi in 2025.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kentucky-official-vote-election-new-york-virginia-b2858656.html
Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams has been forced to remind his citizens that they cannot vote in the elections in New York and Virginia.
The race everyone’s paying attention to as a close contest…
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
NBC VA AG EXIT POLL - Leaked texted messages sent by Jay Jones…
Should be disqualifying 45%
Concerning but not disqualifying 25%
Haven’t heard enough 17%
Not a reason for concern 10%
I suspect that the vast majority of people who don't think it's disqualifying have voted for Jones.
Can’t forget Miami Florida Mayor (almost certainly going to a runoff) either. Democrats outvoting Republicans on E-Day? 5014-3419 (D-R) E-Day 😳
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦
@MappingFL
5pm update and the democrats margin in vast cast has actually increased to 13% #flapolI
I know we've been way behind republicans on e-day turnout for a while, especially in Florida. Do we know what that has been like in Miami historically?
I'll take it as a hopefully good sign either way.
It’s nice reading the anecdotal stories about NYC Jews voting for Mamdani. So refreshing. I’m very curious what the ethnic breakdown of what the race will be once it’s certified.
I did.
Virginia exit polls show enormous gender gap....point to double digit Spanberger win.
Exit polls less promising for Jones. Points to photo finish but probably a small edge to Miyares.
I'd wonder about social desirability bias in those, though.
Where are you seeing reliable exit poll data?
MSNBC website.
Exit polls are usually wrong, regardless of what they say and which party they favour. I personally never pay attention to them, the votes are what matters.
THey're only rarely wrong by more than a couple of points. I almost always follow them because they're so close to right. When they're wrong, it's because they oversample Democrats. Any election night exit poll showing the race tied is almost always terrible news for Democrats.
The exit polls at least for tonight actually underestimated Democrats by 6-8 points.
https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1985860970975986025
Square profile picture
NewsWire
@NewsWire_US
VIRGINIA EXIT POLL — CNN
Governor
Spanberger (D) leads by 8%
Attorney General
Miyares (R) leads by 2.5%
First real results are in from VA. I'm watching the Spanberger-Jones delta. So far Spanberger's margin is 8% better than Jones' (her percentage is 4% better).
Keeping an eye on this - early returns have the delta a lot bigger in some places (in Chesterfield, it's 14). Should be lower in Black precincts, higher in wealthier suburbs.
It's indeed smaller in Jones' home base of Norfolk, about 5. Overall my suspicion is that this ends up at a 10 or 11 point under-run. If Spanberger wins by more than that, she'll drag Jones with her.
I am increasingly confident that Jones has won. Big underperformance, but not enough to sink him.
SOme of the first votes in from Buckingham County. Went twice for Obama but going Earle-Sears by 9 points so far. Not that I think it'll be predictive but an early sign that the rurals aren't yet poised to bounce back.
Buckingham went for Youngkin by 27 in 2021.
Haven't the Obama rurals been gone for quite a while now, for the most part?
There's not a lot of them in Virginia. Only a handful of Obama-Trump rurals.
Yep. Southern rural whites were already pretty monolithically R. What changed recently is that Northern rural white folks started voting like Southern ones.
True, but rural Virginia still overwhelmingly voted Dem downballot for Warner in 2008. Not much of a whisper since, but atill.
5% in; Spanberger 52-47
General pattern in VA is a red mirage since NoVa comes in last with a major D push.
Not tonight, it seems, Loudoun and Fairfax just posted a huge dump, and now Spanberger is up by 16.
Decision Desk calls it for Spanberger.
And Hashmi.
Early Haashmi call is encouraging, hope indicates 57-59 range in terms of HoD
Excellent!
Spanberger beat Earle-Sears to be the first woman Governor in VA history.
Fairfax and Loudoun County vote spreads not too shabby for Jones.
Looking good for Jones per NYT. He's up by 6% with 22% counted. NYT estimates that outstanding ballots are more for Jones.
Looks like first for sure county flip in VA is Surry county. Was 49.65-49 Trump. Is now 52.3-47.6 Spanberger. Youngkin also won it 49.7-50 in 2021.
Looks like Jones won it too