Scandal-plagued congressman fights for renomination on a packed primary night
Florida's new gerrymander, Wyoming's ascendant Freedom Caucus, Alaska's top-four primaries, and more shape a busy evening.
Florida is once again at the center of the political universe on Tuesday on a packed primary night that spans from Key West to the Aleutian Islands.
This will be the first time that the new Republican congressional gerrymander, which Gov. Ron DeSantis rammed through this spring, will be used. The GOP drew up those boundaries to flip four Democratic-held seats, but Democrats are fighting to hold on—and go on the offensive on Republican turf.
One Democratic target has attracted particular attention. GOP Rep. Cory Mills is seeking reelection in the face of a myriad of scandals, and while members of his party fear he could cost them control of his seat, Donald Trump remains in his corner.
The Sunshine State, though, doesn’t have all the primary action to itself. Wyoming’s chapter of the far-right Freedom Caucus is aiming to capitalize on its breakthrough gains from two years ago, while Alaska’s unique top-four primary will winnow the field in the enormous 17-person race for governor.
Two states will also host closely watched special elections. Pennsylvania Democrats are looking to flip a conservative state House seat and boost their razor-thin majority going into the fall.
Voters in California’s 14th District, finally, will elect a representative to replace Eric Swalwell, a Democrat who resigned in disgrace in April after multiple women accused him of sexual assault.
What follows is our guide to the major primaries in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, as well as both of these special elections. You can bookmark our cheat-sheet listing all of these contests, which we’ll update as each race is called.
You can also find an interactive map of Florida’s new congressional boundaries from Dave’s Redistricting App, while the other two states have just one House seat apiece.
When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
The first polls close at 7 PM ET in most of Florida. Please join us on The Downballot’s private Discord server for what will be an exciting evening!
Florida
Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where most Floridians live. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state.
Elections for county and city offices require all the contenders to run on one ballot without any party affiliation. The top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 3 general election unless one candidate wins a majority of the vote on Tuesday.
FL-07 (R & D) (56-43 Trump)
Republican Rep. Cory Mills, whom two different women have accused of domestic abuse and who is reportedly under investigation by the Department of Justice for an undisclosed matter, is seeking a third term despite these and other scandals.
But while Mills has Trump’s endorsement for reelection in Florida’s 7th District, a constituency in the Orlando suburbs and Daytona Beach area that was untouched by redistricting, three of Mills’ fellow Republicans argue it’s time for change.
The best-funded challenger is Ryan Elijah, a former TV anchor for Fox’s Orlando affiliate. Elijah, who argues the incumbent could cost Republicans this seat, has the support of Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, two of Mills’ colleagues in the Sunshine State’s House delegation.
Elijah, though, isn’t Mills’ only intraparty foe. Real estate agent Sarah Ulrich and frequent candidate Michael Don Johnson are also on the ballot, and while they’ve each raised little money, they could divide the anti-Mills vote and make it easier for the congressman to win with just a plurality of the vote.
A pair of polls conducted in August both found Mills far from a majority, but they disagreed about whether Elijah was surpassing him.
A survey from St. Pete Polls early in the month found Mills ahead at just 30%, while Elijah was well behind at 14%; Ulrich and Johnson took 8% and 7%, respectively.
More recent numbers from Capital Strategic Partners, though, showed Elijah decisively beating Mills in a 44-27, with 10% opting for “another candidate.”
Democrats also have a contested primary to sort through. Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, has raised more money than any opponent from either party, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added him to its Red to Blue list of top contenders in June.
Navy veteran Marialana Kinter, though, has also brought in a credible amount of money. The final candidate is former Rep. Alan Grayson, who was one of the most outspoken members of Congress during his two stints in office during the Obama era. But Grayson, who last won office in 2014, has since morphed into a perennial candidate.
FL-Sen (D) (56-43 Trump)
Alexander Vindman, the former National Security Council adviser whose testimony before Congress sparked Trump’s first impeachment, is the Democratic frontrunner to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in this fall’s special election. Vindman, though, doesn’t have the field to himself.
