Primary preview: Get up to speed on all the races in Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming!

Rick Scott will be tough to unseat, but Democrats are looking to expand the Senate playing field

Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) (credit: Rick Scott Facebook)

Our first primary night at The Downballot will be a big one, as voters go to the polls in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming to select nominees for congressional, state, and local office.

In Florida and Wyoming, unless otherwise noted, it takes just a simple plurality to win each party primary. But Alaska, which voted four years ago to adopt America's first-ever "top-four" primary system, operates very differently. All the candidates in each race run on a single ballot, with the four highest vote-getters in each contest advancing to the fall general election. A winner is chosen via ranked-choice voting in November.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch in all three states, arranged by closing time. When it's available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. Each race header is followed by the results of the 2020 presidential election in that jurisdiction, adjusted for redistricting as needed.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive congressional maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Florida, which is the only state in this trio that has multiple U.S. House seats. You can find The Downballot's 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You'll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in the handful of states that have yet to hold one this year.

You can catch our live election coverage on Tuesday night on X/Twitter. Paid subscribers to The Downballot can also join our Discord server, which is sure to be hopping!

Florida

Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where most Floridians live. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state.  

FL-Sen (D) (51-48 Trump)

Senate Democrats are hoping that, despite a series of dispiriting election cycles in Florida, they'll have an opening to unseat Republican Sen. Rick Scott in a year where they're otherwise almost entirely on the defensive. The party's only other viable pickup target is in Texas, where Democratic Rep. Collin Allred is waging a similarly uphill campaign against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

The frontrunner in the four-person Democratic primary to take on Scott is former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who flipped a competitive South Florida House seat during the 2018 blue wave but narrowly lost reelection two years later to Republican Carlos Giménez. Mucarsel-Powell, who was born in Ecuador, would be the first Latina Democrat ever nominated for statewide office.

Mucarsel-Powell's main intraparty rival is wealthy businessman Stanley Campbell, who is the brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell and is one of a small number of Black Americans who own a golf course. Campbell, though, struggled to gain traction even before his campaign manager quit just three weeks before the primary, saying in her resignation letter that the candidate was waging a disorganized effort.

FL-01 (R) (65-33 Trump)

Kevin McCarthy's allies want payback against Rep. Matt Gaetz for leading last year's successful charge to end McCarthy's speakership, and they've spent millions in the hopes of depriving him of another term in Florida's dark red 1st District. They're instead backing retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock, who moved from Missouri to the Pensacola area in the spring around the same time that he launched his campaign.

Dimmock has benefited from over $3 million in outside support from a super PAC with ties to McCarthy's network. The PAC's ads have both focused on building up Dimmock's name recognition as well as highlighting allegations that Gaetz had sex with a 17-year-old girl. A Department of Justice investigation into those accusations ended last year without charges for Gaetz, but the House Ethics Committee is now probing the same matter.

In today's GOP, though, these sorts of claims are rarely an impediment, and they haven't been for Gaetz, who has Donald Trump's endorsement and continues to enjoy a large base of support in northwest Florida. The congressman released a poll in mid-July showing him defeating Dimmock, whom he's cast as a "raging liberal" and an outsider, in a 67-20 landslide.

Dimmock's erstwhile allies stopped airing ads more than two weeks before the primary in what appears to be an admission that McCarthy, who has had little luck overall in his "revenge tour" against the other House Republicans who voted to boot him, won't get to watch Gaetz thrown out of office.

FL-08 (R) (58-41 Trump)

Republican Rep. Bill Posey announced his retirement just after candidate filing closed in April as part of a plan to hand off Florida's conservative 8th District to his preferred successor, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, and it looks like their scheme is going to succeed.

Two little-known Republicans, businessman John Hearton and attorney Joe Babits, filed for what they thought would be a campaign against Posey in the Cape Canaveral area, but they've both struggled to gain traction in their new race against Haridopolos. The former state Senate leader, who has Trump's endorsement, enjoys a massive financial advantage, and a late July poll internal poll for his campaign showed him crushing Hearton 56-6.

Babits, who took just 4% in that survey, dropped out a week ahead of the primary and endorsed Hearton, though his name will remain on the ballot. But with so much already going Haridopolos' way, this late attempt to stop him is likely too little, too late.

FL-09 (R) (58-41 Biden)

While Republicans hope that their strong showing with Latino voters in 2022 will give them an opening against Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in Florida's 9th District, their eventual nominee still faces a tough climb to flip this diverse Orlando-area seat.

The frontrunner in the three-person primary originally looked like former Osceola County Commissioner John Quiñones, a Republican who, like both Soto and a large portion of the electorate, is of Puerto Rican descent. But Quiñones, who lost a 2012 primary for a previous version of the 9th, has struggled to bring in money for his latest campaign.

That's not a concern for former Osceola County school board member Thomas Chalifoux, a wealthy businessman who has loaned his effort $2 million. But Chalifoux, who is not Latino, lacks the sort of profile that Republican recruiters have typically sought for such seats. The final candidate is Jose Castillo, a conservative activist who has spent little.

FL-13 (D) (53-46 Trump)

Republican Anna Paulina Luna flipped Florida's 13th District in 2022 after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis convinced the legislature to pass an aggressively gerrymandered congressional map, but Democrats hope that the far-right freshman's attention-grabbing antics will still give them an opening in this St. Petersburg-area constituency.

The top fundraiser in the five-person Democratic primary is Whitney Fox, a former official with the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority who has the support of Rep. Kathy Castor of the neighboring 14th District. The field also includes former Department of Health and Human Services official Sabrina Bousbar, communications professional Liz Dahan, businessman John Liccione, and retired pilot Mark Weinkrantz.

FL-16 (R) (54-45 Trump)

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan faces a well-funded primary challenge from fellow Republican Eddie Speir, a private school founder who has loaned his campaign $500,000 in his campaign for Florida's Sarasota-based 16th District. But while Speir is arguing that the congressman is "a statesman for the status quo," Buchanan has Trump in his corner to reinforce his hardline credentials. The well-connected incumbent has also decisively outspent his opponent.

FL-27 (D) (49.9-49.6 Trump)

Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller and former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey are facing off in the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents the 27th District in the Miami area. 

Davey, a former Republican who left the party shortly after Trump's 2016 win, has brought in more money than Baez-Geller thanks largely to his ability to self-fund. It remains to be seen whether national Democratic groups will target Salazar in a once-competitive seat that the GOP also gerrymandered in 2022.

Broward County Sheriff (D) (64-35 Biden)

Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony faces three opponents in the Democratic primary to keep the job he assumed in 2019 after DeSantis permanently suspended Democratic Sheriff Scott Israel over his handling of the shootings at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School the previous year. Tony, who was a Republican when DeSantis appointed him in Israel's place, soon switched parties and went on to narrowly beat his predecessor 37-35 in a crowded primary four years ago.

Tony's critics, though, argue that this populous and dark-blue South Florida community needs a new sheriff now more than ever. The incumbent has attracted unwelcome attention over the massive cost of a new training facility, which includes a large mural of Tony overlooking the gun range.

The sheriff has faced further scrutiny over inmate deaths and for rolling back some of his office's reforms. A state board is also still considering a judge's recommendation that Tony be placed on "probationary status" for 18 months for allegedly failing to disclose in 2019 that his driver's license was once suspended. Tony has pushed back by arguing that Broward County is safer under his leadership.

Tony's intraparty rivals are former Florida Department of Law Enforcement official Steve Geller, former Pembroke Park police chief David Howard, and former sheriff department official Alvin Pollock. However, the presence of so many opponents will likely make it easier for Tony, who enjoys a huge fundraising advantage, to once again win the primary with a plurality, just as he did in 2020. Republicans are not fielding a candidate here.

Hillsborough County State Attorney (D) (53-46 Biden)

Democrat Andrew Warren is campaigning to regain his old job as the Tampa area's top prosecutor two years after DeSantis permanently suspended him for, among other things, refusing to prosecute people who obtain or provide abortions. But before Warren can focus on taking on the Republican that DeSantis picked to replace him, State Attorney Suzy Lopez, he has to get past attorney Elizabeth Martinez Strauss in the Democratic primary.

While Strauss, who hails from a prominent local legal family, agrees that Warren was unfairly removed, she's argued that DeSantis might just suspend him all over again. Strauss, of course, could also face arbitrary removal, but she insists she can avoid antagonizing the governor. Allies of Warren, who is still challenging his dismissal in court, have pushed back, with one supporter telling Bolts, "He can't run in fear."

Miami-Dade County Mayor (53-46 Biden)

Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, whose victory in 2020 represented a rare bright spot for Florida Democrats, is hoping to win reelection outright in Tuesday's officially nonpartisan primary by securing a majority of the vote. Her six challengers, conversely, are trying to force a second round of voting on Nov. 5.

Levine Cava's two most prominent foes both identify as Republicans in a race where no party affiliations are listed on the ballot. One candidate to watch is Miami Lakes Mayor Manny Cid, who leads a small Miami suburb. The other notable name belongs to Alex Otaola, a Spanish-language social media voice who has called for ridding the county government of what he says is "communist penetration."

Miami-Dade County Sheriff (D & R) (53-46 Biden)

Florida's largest county will hold a vote for sheriff for the first time since the 1960s, six years after the passage of a state constitutional amendment requiring all counties to elect, rather than appoint, their top law enforcement officials. Both parties have contested primaries for what is sure to emerge as one of the most prominent sheriff's offices in the state.

The GOP side is a chaotic 11-way battle in which two contenders have attracted the most attention. Rosie Cordero-Stutz, an official with the Miami-Dade Police Department, has the support of Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. Her critics, however, have highlighted the fact that she hasn't lived in the county in decades, and they aren't appeased by her stated desire to return home should she win.

Former Miami City Commissioner Joe Sanchez does not have that issue, and the well-funded contender has portrayed Cordero-Stutz as an outsider. Another prominent candidate is former Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez who, despite being suspended by DeSantis in 2022 over corruption allegations, has also enjoyed strong fundraising.

A St. Pete Polls survey conducted just before the primary gave Sanchez a 16-14 edge over Cordero-Stutz, with Martinez just behind with 12%. A hefty 45% were still undecided, while the balance was split between the other eight candidates.

On the Democratic side, Miami-Dade Chief of Public Safety James Reyes has been the frontrunner ever since he launched his campaign in January, and he has the support of County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and other notables. While Reyes also lives in Broward County, none of his three primary rivals have anywhere near as much money or establishment support.

Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections (D) (53-46 Biden)

Miami-Dade County will also elect a supervisor of elections for the first time in decades, and three Democrats are facing off ahead what will be a competitive general election for this important post. J.C. Planas, who served in the legislature as a Republican more than a decade ago, has several labor groups on his side, while political consultant Willis Howard and businessman Arnie Weiss are also in the running.

The Democratic nominee will go up against Republican state Rep. Alina Garcia, whose primary opponent dropped out after Trump endorsed Garcia. After winning Trump's backing, Garcia notably refused to push back against her benefactor's many election lies.

Orange and Osceola Counties State Attorney (R) (60-39 Biden)

The Orlando area will play host to a three-way race for state attorney, where Democrat Monique Worrell is trying to regain the job that DeSantis permanently suspended her from during the middle of his disastrous presidential campaign. The winner will serve as the top prosecutor for the Ninth Circuit, which is made up of both Orange and Osceola counties. (The state's 67 counties are divided into 20 judicial circuits, most of which include more than one county.)

DeSantis removed Worrell, who was the only Black woman serving as a state attorney anywhere in Florida, for allegedly failing to seek sufficiently serious penalties in cases of violent crime, even though she had released data arguing her approach was comparable to her predecessors'. Worrell, who has no opposition in her primary, immediately began campaigning against the Republican DeSantis appointed to replace her, Andrew Bain, but Bain decided to seek a full term as an independent.

The two people who still want the Republican nomination are Army veteran Thomas Feiter and attorney Seth Hyman, who has the endorsements of both the Orange and Osceola Republican parties. Either would have a tough time winning the general election in this blue district, but the GOP nominee could still have an impact in a three-way general election.

Palm Beach County State Attorney (D) (56-43 Biden)

State Attorney Dave Aronberg is retiring after 12 years as the top prosecutor for Palm Beach County, a reliably blue South Florida community that includes Trump's lair at Mar-a-Lago. Three of Aronberg's fellow Democrats are running to replace him.

Two of those candidates, Alexcia Cox and Craig Williams, are among Aronberg's top deputies. Cox, who would be both the first Black person and the first woman to hold this post, has several local officials on her side, while the Palm Beach County Police Benevolent Association is for Williams. The third contender is defense attorney Gregg Lerman, who is positioning himself as an outsider.

FL State Senate 7th District (R) (62-36 Trump)

While both parties have no shortage of contested primaries for Florida's legislature, the three-way Republican contest for the dark red 7th state Senate District stands out because it's become more expensive than almost any primary this year for the U.S. House.

State Rep. Tom Leek, who chairs the influential Appropriations Committee in the lower chamber, originally looked like the frontrunner to replace his ally, termed-out state Sen. Travis Hutson. Many observers had pegged Leek as a future leader of the Senate in the event of what had appeared a likely win.

But Leek's support for DeSantis' doomed presidential bid and close ties to the insurance industry have earned him many enemies, which he's learned the hard way during his ugly primary battle with former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar. 

Trial lawyers are funding a group that's spent heavily against Leek, while Trump endorsed Shoar late in the race. But Leek, who has support from DeSantis and several local officials, is still hoping his extensive connections in state politics will help him prevail. The third candidate is Gerry James, a former professional wrestler and ordained minister who lost to Hutson 56-44 in 2022, though he hasn't attracted as much attention as his two rivals.

Wyoming

Polls close at 9 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

WY State House & Senate (R)

While Wyoming has long been one of the most conservative states in America, the local affiliate of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus is hoping that a series of wins in the Republican primaries for state House and Senate will help it drag the state even further to the right.

The old GOP leadership, though, has organized itself as the Wyoming Caucus to fight back. No matter how things turn out Tuesday, Republicans are assured of winning large majorities in November. What will matter most, as we've seen in other states, is how these two warring factions deal with one another next year.

Alaska

Polls close in most of Alaska at midnight Wednesday in the Eastern time zone, which is 8 PM Tuesday local time. A little less than 1% of the state's residents live in the Hawaii-Aleutian time zone, where polls close at 1 AM ET / 8 PM local time.

AK-AL (53-43 Trump)

No House Democrat represents a redder district than Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola, which is why 11 different opponents are competing to face her for the state's lone, at-large seat in the lower chamber.

There's little question that Peltola and two Republicans, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich, will claim three of the four available spots in the general election, but there's still plenty of suspense about how things will unfold on Tuesday.

Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he finished behind Dahlstrom, a prospect that would delight the many Republicans he alienated both before and during his two failed campaigns for this seat in 2022 (he lost both the special and regular elections). Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are doing what they can to end Begich's third effort by rallying around Dahlstrom, who says she'll keep campaigning in the general election no matter what.

National Democrats, meanwhile, have spent close to $1 million to boost the name recognition of a third Republican, a previously unheralded perennial candidate named Gerald Heikes. A likely reason is that Heikes' presence in the general election could make it harder for the GOP to unify behind one candidate even if Begich drops out. Heikes, for his part, says he'll stay in the race if he advances.

It may be some time before we know exactly which three candidates will face Peltola, as well as the order in which they finish. Elections in this vast state are conducted almost entirely by mail, and ballots postmarked by Tuesday will be counted if administrators receive them within 10 days of the primary.