114 Comments
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Absentee Boater's avatar

I’m starting off with an Aperol Spritz.

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Oceanblaze17's avatar

In some rural IN and KY counties it looks like Trump is doing better than 2020 there.

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Scott Christensen's avatar

The one county I saw showed a gain of 4pts for us.

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S Kolb's avatar

racism is alive and well in rural KY and IN

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Oggoldy's avatar

None of them are 100% in, so I'd caution reading too much into it. Were seeing a smattering of ±2 from 2020 in the rurals, and basically None of the cities or suburbs in

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Generally seeing mild improvement, but still need more data to determine. I was predicting Harris to improve by 2 nationally just by mainly holding even in rural and deep red turf and pushing the margins her way in more suburban and urban areas (like Allen and Hamilton counties). We will see. It doesn’t look disastrous, the results are cautiously optimistic so far.

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Andrew's avatar

Hamilton Co looks like a pretty sizable shift to Harris. This was a Haley county in the primary.

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Andrew's avatar

I don't know what you are seeing but I've looked at 26 rural counties in IN & KY and Trump is doing better in exactly 1 of them. Harris is doing 2-4% better in the remaining 24.

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Mark's avatar

First significant counties with major drops. Kenton County, Kentucky, almost identical to 2020. A couple of points of improvement for Harris in Allen County, Indiana. Both nearly half in.

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Absentee Boater's avatar

Allen County = Fort Wayne. Was 54-43 in 2020, and is currently 52-47. But caveat that we don’t know what or where that vote is coming from.

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LennyLiberal's avatar

Harris winning Hamilton County 50-48.5 with 65% reporting. This is a large suburban county that Trump won 52-45. Would be huge if this holds steady, though who knows how the final 35% will break.

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Inkan1969's avatar

Any idea what the lean is of the votes not reporting yet?

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Absentee Boater's avatar

The early vote is what has already been reported. So we’re waiting for Election Day votes. I don’t think we can say what that means yet this year.

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LennyLiberal's avatar

No idea, unfortunately.

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Absentee Boater's avatar

Hamilton County (N Indianapolis suburbs) with a huge drop with Harris ahead! Was 52-45 T in 2020.

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Oggoldy's avatar

We'll see if it holds. Because it all dumped at once, my guess is that's all early vote and E-day will trickle in, which will drift the results rightward.

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James Trout's avatar

Governor Phil Scott (R-VT) voted for Kamala!

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Inkan1969's avatar

Source?

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James Trout's avatar

I’m away so I can’t link it. Go to VTDigger on Google though and the article will come up.

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Inkan1969's avatar

Thanks. I found it. Scott voted for Biden in 2020, though. So it's not a new thing for him.

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ClimateHawk's avatar

Phil Scott.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

A profile in courage /s/

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Mark's avatar

ANybody know which states do and do not have exit polls? It doesn't like there will be any for Minnesota.

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Oggoldy's avatar

We'll find out. Often times national news networks will poll huge numbers of people and break it out by state.

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Mark's avatar

I don't think we're gonna like what we're gonna see in Georgia. We already don't in Florida.

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S Kolb's avatar

KH +11 in GA 1 min ago

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Aspi's avatar

The Discord is too chaotic. People posting results with no information of % reporting or other metrics. Where are y'all following results?

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Yikes Osceola. The rest of Florida Harris seems to be holding up to Biden’s margin, but those Osceola results, if they hold, represent a big hit for Democrats. Hard to image Dems can get much of a margin out of Miami-Dade County with Caribbean voters swinging so hard to Trump in Osceola. Still not totally inconsistent with a Trump win of 6~7 points in Florida, which I was predicting (I was predicting Florida would move right while the country moves left; the whole state has just become the MAGA heaven while young educated voters and older, educated millennials who are liberal are relocating out of state at a rapid pace; it’s completely rewriting the politics of the region).

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James Trout's avatar

As some of us have been saying, Florida is the new Texas. Texas will is the new Georgia. Georgia is the new Florida.

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SanJoseAJ's avatar

SC/KY/IN called for Trump; VT called for Harris. No surprise yet.

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SanJoseAJ's avatar

Suburban swing to the left is real though

Suburban Boone County of Indianapolis with 91% of the vote in:

2020: Trump+18.5

2024: Trump+10.5

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Oggoldy's avatar

Looks like CNN's Exit poll has Independents in Georgia going to to Trump 54-43, Biden won them by 9 last time. Doesn't look good for Harris in GA.

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Aspi's avatar

OG, do you know the methodology? These are election day results only?

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Of course they are E-Day only, which means even if they were accurate, they are capturing a segment, E-day voters, that we already know have leaned R and have every election since 2016.

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Oggoldy's avatar

It's not E-day only. They made that abundantly clear on air.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

I was only skimming top results online. But the fact that it is not E-Day only makes me wonder how they can possible get a good sample without falling into the same issues that pollsters run into.

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Oggoldy's avatar

This is the entirety of the electorate, they made that clear. The math works out for Trump being up 2 in GA.

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Aspi's avatar

Thank you. I thought so, because pollsters were polling "already voters" for a few weeks.

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Aspi's avatar

I decided to watch CBS this time, they said their exit poll is not ready.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Same exit poll had Trump winning women by 8% and only a 2% gender gap which is narrower than anything we’ve seen in the last 6 years. I honestly don’t understand why newsrooms still bother to do Exit Polls.

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Oggoldy's avatar

It has Harris winning women by 8, not Trump

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Oh, I misread the results.

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Mark's avatar

Yeah 55-43 Trump for men and 56-43 Harris for women in Georgia. Not gonna happen unless there was an unlikely exit poll miss to the right.

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Mark's avatar

Oops....53-46 for women in GA exits.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

75% of the Douglas county vote just dropped. Small but mid-sized Atlanta metro county. Fairly similar to much of the Atlanta metro, very diverse, fairly young. Harris is up 66-33, and her margin is 4% larger than Biden’s. This would seem to contradict ridiculous exit polls that showed Trump winning men 55-43 and even winning women 53-45.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Rockdale is also 75% in. Harris is up 75-24, a 6 point improvement on Biden. But yikes, Florida looks awful

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Aspi's avatar

What were 2020 Biden numbers?

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

He had 69% of the vote.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

Roughly 40% of the vote in Fayette County is in and Harris is still up 60-38. This was a 53-45 Trump county in 2020.

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Thomas Hounds's avatar

North Georgia counties almost all in, Bartow and Pickens, are both tracking almost evenly with 2020 with only a marginal improvement for Harris overall. But she’s also running about 5% ahead of Biden so far in the Atlanta metro. This is a decent sign for Dems.

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Mark's avatar

Florida is the disaster I predicted yesterday. Double-digit Trump lead in the Miami-Dade early vote. Harris barely ahead in Hillsborough and Pinellas in the early vote.

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Oceanblaze17's avatar

FL is gone.

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Tom A's avatar

Maybe we can get a sensible Cuba policy finally.

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James Trout's avatar

Indeed. No need to pander to people who can’t accept that it’s not 1958 anymore.

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Aspi's avatar

But it needs Congress...

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Aspi's avatar

LOL, Non-partisan pro-vote ad on CBS.

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ClimateHawk's avatar

Looks like NYT was on the money for FL.

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