None of them are 100% in, so I'd caution reading too much into it. Were seeing a smattering of ±2 from 2020 in the rurals, and basically None of the cities or suburbs in
Generally seeing mild improvement, but still need more data to determine. I was predicting Harris to improve by 2 nationally just by mainly holding even in rural and deep red turf and pushing the margins her way in more suburban and urban areas (like Allen and Hamilton counties). We will see. It doesn’t look disastrous, the results are cautiously optimistic so far.
I don't know what you are seeing but I've looked at 26 rural counties in IN & KY and Trump is doing better in exactly 1 of them. Harris is doing 2-4% better in the remaining 24.
First significant counties with major drops. Kenton County, Kentucky, almost identical to 2020. A couple of points of improvement for Harris in Allen County, Indiana. Both nearly half in.
Harris winning Hamilton County 50-48.5 with 65% reporting. This is a large suburban county that Trump won 52-45. Would be huge if this holds steady, though who knows how the final 35% will break.
We'll see if it holds. Because it all dumped at once, my guess is that's all early vote and E-day will trickle in, which will drift the results rightward.
Yikes Osceola. The rest of Florida Harris seems to be holding up to Biden’s margin, but those Osceola results, if they hold, represent a big hit for Democrats. Hard to image Dems can get much of a margin out of Miami-Dade County with Caribbean voters swinging so hard to Trump in Osceola. Still not totally inconsistent with a Trump win of 6~7 points in Florida, which I was predicting (I was predicting Florida would move right while the country moves left; the whole state has just become the MAGA heaven while young educated voters and older, educated millennials who are liberal are relocating out of state at a rapid pace; it’s completely rewriting the politics of the region).
Of course they are E-Day only, which means even if they were accurate, they are capturing a segment, E-day voters, that we already know have leaned R and have every election since 2016.
I was only skimming top results online. But the fact that it is not E-Day only makes me wonder how they can possible get a good sample without falling into the same issues that pollsters run into.
Same exit poll had Trump winning women by 8% and only a 2% gender gap which is narrower than anything we’ve seen in the last 6 years. I honestly don’t understand why newsrooms still bother to do Exit Polls.
75% of the Douglas county vote just dropped. Small but mid-sized Atlanta metro county. Fairly similar to much of the Atlanta metro, very diverse, fairly young. Harris is up 66-33, and her margin is 4% larger than Biden’s. This would seem to contradict ridiculous exit polls that showed Trump winning men 55-43 and even winning women 53-45.
North Georgia counties almost all in, Bartow and Pickens, are both tracking almost evenly with 2020 with only a marginal improvement for Harris overall. But she’s also running about 5% ahead of Biden so far in the Atlanta metro. This is a decent sign for Dems.
Florida is the disaster I predicted yesterday. Double-digit Trump lead in the Miami-Dade early vote. Harris barely ahead in Hillsborough and Pinellas in the early vote.
I’m starting off with an Aperol Spritz.
In some rural IN and KY counties it looks like Trump is doing better than 2020 there.
The one county I saw showed a gain of 4pts for us.
racism is alive and well in rural KY and IN
None of them are 100% in, so I'd caution reading too much into it. Were seeing a smattering of ±2 from 2020 in the rurals, and basically None of the cities or suburbs in
Generally seeing mild improvement, but still need more data to determine. I was predicting Harris to improve by 2 nationally just by mainly holding even in rural and deep red turf and pushing the margins her way in more suburban and urban areas (like Allen and Hamilton counties). We will see. It doesn’t look disastrous, the results are cautiously optimistic so far.
Hamilton Co looks like a pretty sizable shift to Harris. This was a Haley county in the primary.
I don't know what you are seeing but I've looked at 26 rural counties in IN & KY and Trump is doing better in exactly 1 of them. Harris is doing 2-4% better in the remaining 24.
First significant counties with major drops. Kenton County, Kentucky, almost identical to 2020. A couple of points of improvement for Harris in Allen County, Indiana. Both nearly half in.
Allen County = Fort Wayne. Was 54-43 in 2020, and is currently 52-47. But caveat that we don’t know what or where that vote is coming from.
Harris winning Hamilton County 50-48.5 with 65% reporting. This is a large suburban county that Trump won 52-45. Would be huge if this holds steady, though who knows how the final 35% will break.
Any idea what the lean is of the votes not reporting yet?
The early vote is what has already been reported. So we’re waiting for Election Day votes. I don’t think we can say what that means yet this year.
No idea, unfortunately.
Hamilton County (N Indianapolis suburbs) with a huge drop with Harris ahead! Was 52-45 T in 2020.
We'll see if it holds. Because it all dumped at once, my guess is that's all early vote and E-day will trickle in, which will drift the results rightward.
Governor Phil Scott (R-VT) voted for Kamala!
Source?
I’m away so I can’t link it. Go to VTDigger on Google though and the article will come up.
Thanks. I found it. Scott voted for Biden in 2020, though. So it's not a new thing for him.
Phil Scott.
A profile in courage /s/
ANybody know which states do and do not have exit polls? It doesn't like there will be any for Minnesota.
We'll find out. Often times national news networks will poll huge numbers of people and break it out by state.
I don't think we're gonna like what we're gonna see in Georgia. We already don't in Florida.
KH +11 in GA 1 min ago
The Discord is too chaotic. People posting results with no information of % reporting or other metrics. Where are y'all following results?
Yikes Osceola. The rest of Florida Harris seems to be holding up to Biden’s margin, but those Osceola results, if they hold, represent a big hit for Democrats. Hard to image Dems can get much of a margin out of Miami-Dade County with Caribbean voters swinging so hard to Trump in Osceola. Still not totally inconsistent with a Trump win of 6~7 points in Florida, which I was predicting (I was predicting Florida would move right while the country moves left; the whole state has just become the MAGA heaven while young educated voters and older, educated millennials who are liberal are relocating out of state at a rapid pace; it’s completely rewriting the politics of the region).
As some of us have been saying, Florida is the new Texas. Texas will is the new Georgia. Georgia is the new Florida.
SC/KY/IN called for Trump; VT called for Harris. No surprise yet.
Suburban swing to the left is real though
Suburban Boone County of Indianapolis with 91% of the vote in:
2020: Trump+18.5
2024: Trump+10.5
Looks like CNN's Exit poll has Independents in Georgia going to to Trump 54-43, Biden won them by 9 last time. Doesn't look good for Harris in GA.
OG, do you know the methodology? These are election day results only?
Of course they are E-Day only, which means even if they were accurate, they are capturing a segment, E-day voters, that we already know have leaned R and have every election since 2016.
It's not E-day only. They made that abundantly clear on air.
I was only skimming top results online. But the fact that it is not E-Day only makes me wonder how they can possible get a good sample without falling into the same issues that pollsters run into.
This is the entirety of the electorate, they made that clear. The math works out for Trump being up 2 in GA.
Thank you. I thought so, because pollsters were polling "already voters" for a few weeks.
I decided to watch CBS this time, they said their exit poll is not ready.
Same exit poll had Trump winning women by 8% and only a 2% gender gap which is narrower than anything we’ve seen in the last 6 years. I honestly don’t understand why newsrooms still bother to do Exit Polls.
It has Harris winning women by 8, not Trump
Oh, I misread the results.
Yeah 55-43 Trump for men and 56-43 Harris for women in Georgia. Not gonna happen unless there was an unlikely exit poll miss to the right.
Oops....53-46 for women in GA exits.
75% of the Douglas county vote just dropped. Small but mid-sized Atlanta metro county. Fairly similar to much of the Atlanta metro, very diverse, fairly young. Harris is up 66-33, and her margin is 4% larger than Biden’s. This would seem to contradict ridiculous exit polls that showed Trump winning men 55-43 and even winning women 53-45.
Rockdale is also 75% in. Harris is up 75-24, a 6 point improvement on Biden. But yikes, Florida looks awful
What were 2020 Biden numbers?
He had 69% of the vote.
Roughly 40% of the vote in Fayette County is in and Harris is still up 60-38. This was a 53-45 Trump county in 2020.
North Georgia counties almost all in, Bartow and Pickens, are both tracking almost evenly with 2020 with only a marginal improvement for Harris overall. But she’s also running about 5% ahead of Biden so far in the Atlanta metro. This is a decent sign for Dems.
Florida is the disaster I predicted yesterday. Double-digit Trump lead in the Miami-Dade early vote. Harris barely ahead in Hillsborough and Pinellas in the early vote.
FL is gone.
Maybe we can get a sensible Cuba policy finally.
Indeed. No need to pander to people who can’t accept that it’s not 1958 anymore.
But it needs Congress...
LOL, Non-partisan pro-vote ad on CBS.
Looks like NYT was on the money for FL.