Democrats in California’s congressional delegation have privately agreed to a new congressional map that could net them as many as five seats in 2026, according to multiple lawmakers and aides close to the issue.
The GOP targets: Reps. Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa in southern California; Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley; Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the north and Rep. Kevin Kiley along the Nevada border.
Calvert and Kiley are relatively easy to target because of their proximity to Democratic-dominated cities. To redraw LaMalfa’s northern California district, Democrats would need to pull blue areas from the districts held by Democratic Reps. Jared Huffman and Mike Thompson.
Valadao and Issa are slightly more difficult to turn into Democratic-favored districts, but the two GOP lawmakers could certainly see their seats become much more competitive.
A potential big winner in this proposal is GOP Rep. Young Kim, who isn’t on the target list. It’s likely her Orange County district will have to turn deep red to help protect neighboring Democrats, including Reps. Derek Tran and Dave Min.
The proposal would also shore up vulnerable Democratic members, including Reps. Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who found themselves in districts that Trump won in 2024.
I would like them to redraw Republicans completely out as a partisan, but 5 seats is better than where it is now and might be more politically palatable for voters instead of having the GOP argue that Republicans have no reps in Congress, which may sway undecided or moderate voters more to vote against a redraw. But they should try for every seat possible. Whether that’s 5 or 9 is completely debatable.
my only gripe here is that it shouldn't be conditional on Texas redistricting. Do it regardless, between Texas, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana there will be some GOP rigging of the midterms and California is our best card to play to level the field.
Would Sherrod Brown, should be run and win back his seat next year, be able to hold onto it in 2028 for another full term? He was knocked out last year by Moreno because it was a presidential year.
Brown would probably run well ahead of whomever the Democratic presidential nominee is. And I'm not sure that Vance has a lot of special home-state appeal, given that he's won only one election there on his own, and that somewhat underwhelmingly.
It would be poetic justice, or something, if Vance were to have difficulty winning his home state presidentially--and if he or any Republican is having trouble in Ohio then they're toast nationally.
Would Vance have all that much of a home state bonus? He didn't serve in office there long and wasn't especially popular. Also, anecdotally I've noted that the home state bonus tends to be smaller in bigger states more often than not. Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the US.
If Brown runs and wins next year, his chances in 2028 will depend more on how well we're doing across the board than on the specific republican nominee.
At the very least, he’d have a better chance of holding the seat in 2028 without Trump on the ballot than he did in 2024 with him on it. Do I think it’s a Tossup? Nope, Ohio is still very red. But Lean R would probably be appropriate if he takes the plunge. Closer to Safe R without him running, maybe Likely R if Ryan runs, but Democrats have 0 political bench to speak of, so it’s Sherrod or bust imo.
My dream scenario would be Brown running for Senate and Ryan running for Governor. That’d be the strongest ticket possible and may be even close enough to allow Democrats to gain some ground on the State Supreme Court.
Sadly, the parts of Ohio that swung hardest from Obama to Trump (Mahoning/Trumbull counties, coal country) were also the political bases of Brown, Ryan, and Strickland—and it's hard to see those areas getting much bluer in the foreseeable future, even after Trump leaves politics.
Sure, but some of the worst hemorrhaging is in blue cities like Youngstown. Plus, Ohio's rurals are still a lot more densely-populated than, say, the Wilds region of Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump’s approval rating is now 20 points underwater, 38% to 58%, according to a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll. Since April, public approval of his presidency has dropped an additional 6 percentage points.
81% of voters blame Trump for hiding Epstein information. MAGA has broken with Trump on an issue and Democrats need to dig the knife in deeper to the GOP.
14% of Trump voters view him unfavourably now as do 15% of Lean Republican voters.
Especially noteworthy is that nearly half of Americans (48%) say they strongly disapprove of Trump and the percentage of Americans who say they strongly approve of Trump has decreased substantially. Even among Republican respondents, only half strongly approve of the president. The GOP should be concerned about these numbers heading into the odd-year elections in 2025 and, especially, the midterm elections in 2026. It is very difficult for a party to win when its leader is this unpopular.”
So to recap, his base has lost any intensity they had, the independent, Democratic and swing voters have broken from him and holy crap, men only approve at 39% compared to 35% of women (who said anything about a gender gap and Trump’s unbreakable hold on men).
Will this last? I have my doubts given what we saw every other occasion we thought this time people would abandon Trump, but this is the most encouraged I’ve been about permanently breaking Trump’s coalition.
Epstein seems to be the only thing that actually gets through to MAGA. I'm frankly surprised that they care this much, but it does feed into their preoccupation with conspiracy theories. We need to keep it in the news and zeitgeist as much as possible.
It's going to be fun when Trump pardons Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for some statement from her that he can (attempt to) pass off as a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL EXONERATION!"
NY-01: Unless NY somehow can redraw the maps before 2026, this may be nothing more than wave insurance... but the background of this candidate looks solid.
Sometimes a wave becomes big enough to carry in the insurance candidates to office. See Rep Kendra Horn and Rep Joe Cunningham. If it’s Trump +15 or less we should have strong candidates running real campaigns, because you just never know!
Yes, honestly I think it's more important to invest in "wave insurance" campaigns than it is to, say, try to ratfuck GOP primaries (they seem to do a pretty good job of that on their own).
Both, both is good. I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time. Whatever it takes to win. “There are no rules, anything goes”. This is how the GOP plays the political game, so we need to be willing to do the same.
SC-01 is open again and it’s possible Dems could do both at once. The GOP nominee could be someone who makes Mace look like Brian Fitzpatrick in comparison.
Supporters of Derek Dooley who think that failure as a football coach demonstrates fitness to be a United States Senator might look to the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Raheem Morris, whose career record with the Georgia team is 29-47.
Morris may be part of a gang of NFL retreads but he’s an active coach. Dooley hasn’t actually coached in Georgia and coached for UGA’s rival. That’s what makes people scratch their heads
CT GOP is running out of good candidates to run for Governor. Nobody I've seen so far is worth thinking about except Jennifer Tooker, the First Selectman in Westport. Lots of money in that part of the state where Gov. Lamont lives in Greenwich.
Lamont doesn't need to announce at this point. He has the luxury to sit back and see who is showing up to take him on. LOL I do look forward to hear what Rep. Josh Elliott has to offer to be our Governor. Lamont is liked. The CT GOP waste time attacking with no solutions. I think many have grown tired of them along with MAGA candidates that end up on our ballot.
Elliott’s a left challenger. Lamont’s endorsement of Cuomo, coupled with him vetoing a major housing bill (along with another bill I forgot the details of), inspired the challenge.
Hopefully Governor Lamont will take the hint and retire. He's served the Nutmeg State well but we could use some new blood there. It's not like we are lacking for qualified candidates.
Name recognition for those who don't pay attention could hurt Elliott. The housing bill was too big and complicated. Lamont liked parts of it but agree with him sending them back to the table to work on it in the next session. Pull out what could work (ex. parking) on both sides of the aisle & I think Lamont will sign some of it.
CT has 169 towns & cities with their own Planning & Zoning Committees. Not an easy task to get them all on the same page regarding zoning issues. We're known as the "land of steady habits" for a reason. Progress can be slow but I welcome good ideas for moving forward. Will wait to see what Elliott comes up with.
He would also have to win over the most registered voters in the state which are unaffiliated. As a closed primary state, you have to be registered with a party to vote. A pain to do if you want to vote in a primary, but you can change your registration and then change it back. Probably drives the town clerks in the 169 towns and cities crazy. I'm one of them. LOL
Cuomo isn't as big as you think it was here in CT. Nobody cares what's happening in NYC.
Are there any other states planning to run referenda on reproductive rights in the coming cycle? Looks like quite a few blue states could add it to their constitutions, like WA, OR, NM, NJ and MA. Seems to be a good idea for both practical reasons and to drive turnout.
Arkansas was going to have it on their ballot last year, but the SOS and the state Supreme Court successfully killed it from getting on there due to a so-called paperwork error or that canvassers didn't get enough signatures.
Cook has the district's PVI as R+4 (four points more R than nation). For comparison sake, other R+4 seats include IA-1, IA-2, PA-8, MO-2 ,and Golden's seat (ME-2).
If we get a strong year in 2026, all of these are winnable. Indeed, I think we should really go after every seat with a PVI of R+4 or bluer. That would be 24 seats currently held by R's.
I was just about to post that. He was one of the biggest critics of Trump lying about how Georgia conducted elections. He also had a symbolic resolution passed against him "expelling" him from the GOP earlier this year by the state party.
If he moves from centre right to centre left after his party switch, I could see him winning the nomination. Otherwise, I’m not sure I’d want him as a Democratic Governor and I don’t know if primary voters would vote for him either. Then again, Democrats haven’t won the office in decades, so maybe Geoff Duncan is the only one who can pull off a victory against a likely MAGA Governor.
EDIT: After reading the article I do like what he says about guns and this quote. We need good people who are there for the right reasons in government, so I’m definitely open to hearing his pitch if he decides to run for office.
Duncan made the announcement in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution opinion piece, where he writes: “Loving my neighbor is easier now.”
If he's serious about the Governorship, he'll move to no worse than centrist. He knows that being anti choice and anti LGBTQ won't sell with today's Democratic Party. Not even in Georgia.
At this point in time I personally am happy to allow anyone who is opposed to Trump into the coalition, but I probably don't represent a majority of Democratic primary voters.
There’s a difference between welcoming people into the coalition and wanting to nominate them for governor. We all should work with whoever we can to oppose Trump, but we do have beliefs and goals of our own that we want to elect people to advance.
All this talk about the wealthy elite of New York being afraid of Mamdani does more to gain him support from the average voter than anything else I could think of. It’s very simple logic: billionaires and corporations are scared and panicking because he’s actually fighting for the little guy for once. It’s what GOP primary voters concluded when the Republican establishment went against Trump. It’s almost impossible not to draw that conclusion as a voter with Trump supporters/elites propping up Adams and/or Cuomo.
If these two politicians had any political sense at all, they’d disavow donations from Trump supporters and move more to the left to eat into some of Mamdani’s squishy/hesitant backers. That’s how you build an anti-Mamdani coalition (I support Mamdani and this isn’t what I want, I’m just explaining how it could be successful), by winning over some of his voters, not by trying to fight over the minority share of voters who don’t want Mamdani because even if you get all of them, it’s not enough to win.
Split the not sure between the parties and you get:
Democrats 56%
Republicans 35%
Remember that Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024. Even giving Republicans that entire last 9% to make up 100 (they won’t actually get all of them), that would still at minimum be a large shift towards Democrats from 2024 (D+9). Although that would be less than Biden got in 2020.
Work to do, but signs are there that the Democratic base voters who switched to Trump last year are going back to their roots after witnessing yet another chaotic and corrupt Trump presidency with a rubber stamp Republican Congress. Thermostatic opinion doing god’s work in America.
Yup, like I said, work to do. But way closer to 2022 than 2024 and if you split the other 9% again instead of giving the GOP all of them (which I did to illustrate my point of the shift from 2024, it’s very unlikely “not sure” voters would split 50/50 and remainder would all go Republican), you reach 2022 numbers:
Democrats 61%
Republicans 39%
Democrats don’t even have to win a majority of these voters (although they should absolutely try to!), they just have to split them with the GOP 50/50. Seems eminently doable to me for 2026.
I think Trump's comments today on the GOP being 'entitled to 5 seats' is going to be featured in A LOT of campaign ads for the upcoming Cali constitutional amendment. The good thing Cali Dems have going for them is the GOP has been very explicit that this is a power grab and it will help make it easier to get people to vote YES.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) went after New York Gov. Kathy Hochul for wearing a headscarf to the funeral of the Muslim police officer who was murdered in the NYC shooting. One would think that such a move would be respected as a basic form of courtesy to a fucking slain cop, but apparently not.
I know it's unlikely, but I hope someday Cruz will be voted out.
Your evidence that he's desperate? I'm reminded of Morgan Freeman's comment: "I hate the word homophobia. It's not a phobia. You're not scared. You're an asshole." Likewise, Cruz is not desperate and can probably win another Senate race. But he's definitely an asshole!
Plus, to the extent that Cruz might be in danger of losing his next election, comments like this do not help him. If he is in danger then stuff like this is why.
Not that this specific event will be remembered by 2030. It can still contribute by being part of a pattern.
Wasn’t there another election in Delaware earlier this year where Dems underperformed as well? Maybe turnout patterns are different in Delaware for some reason.
In the mayors' race, progressive challenger Katie Wilson currently leads incumbent Bruce Harrell 46.4-45, and a runoff will occur.
In the City Attorney's race, Democrat Erika Evans leads Republican Ann Davison 51-37. A runoff will occur.
Apparently the City Council president Sara Nelson is also behind progressive challenger Dionne Foster 53.9-39.2. (Progressive incumbent Alexis Mercedes Rinck is demolishing her nearest opponent, Rachael Savage, 75.8-15.)
The Democracy Vouchers program, which a ballot measure attempted to gut, may be safe after all -- assuming the 55.6-44.4 lead holds.
In the King County Executive race, Girmay Zahilay and Claudia Balducci are headed to a runoff. Current numbers are 40.6-30.4. Zahilay was a Working Families Party endorsee.
Assuming all these numbers hold, progressives are having a good night in Seattle.
Local politics can be and often is different from federal politics. It's not at all uncommon for cities that vote 70%, 80%, or even 90% dem in federal elections and consistently prefer more progressive dems for congress to also pick out moderate/establishment leaders for local office.
Surprisingly good results for progressives. I’ll note I voted for Balducci for County Exec because she’s been very solid on transit issues, and will do so again in November, but I’m fine with Zahilay. There is not that big a difference between the two.
I imagine Harrell has a slight advantage with a broader general electorate than an August primary come November but that’s a surprisingly good showing by Wilson. I do not think she has what it takes to be a good mayor.
As for Sara Nelson, good riddance. She’s a horrible NIMBY and I’m glad she’s starting the general at a disadvantage
I feel similarly. I voted for Balducci, but don't have a problem with either one of them. They both strike me as common sense progressives - i.e. maybe a bit to my left, but reasonable people who would make good executives.
Democrats in California’s congressional delegation have privately agreed to a new congressional map that could net them as many as five seats in 2026, according to multiple lawmakers and aides close to the issue.
The GOP targets: Reps. Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa in southern California; Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley; Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the north and Rep. Kevin Kiley along the Nevada border.
Calvert and Kiley are relatively easy to target because of their proximity to Democratic-dominated cities. To redraw LaMalfa’s northern California district, Democrats would need to pull blue areas from the districts held by Democratic Reps. Jared Huffman and Mike Thompson.
Valadao and Issa are slightly more difficult to turn into Democratic-favored districts, but the two GOP lawmakers could certainly see their seats become much more competitive.
A potential big winner in this proposal is GOP Rep. Young Kim, who isn’t on the target list. It’s likely her Orange County district will have to turn deep red to help protect neighboring Democrats, including Reps. Derek Tran and Dave Min.
The proposal would also shore up vulnerable Democratic members, including Reps. Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who found themselves in districts that Trump won in 2024.
https://punchbowl.news/archive/8525-am/
I would like them to redraw Republicans completely out as a partisan, but 5 seats is better than where it is now and might be more politically palatable for voters instead of having the GOP argue that Republicans have no reps in Congress, which may sway undecided or moderate voters more to vote against a redraw. But they should try for every seat possible. Whether that’s 5 or 9 is completely debatable.
Sounds like 5 is the number so they can make the argument that it balances out Texas (doesn't take into account FL, OH, etc. though...)
Young Kim isn’t exactly a winner here. Very possible that red vote sink goes to Calvert or Issa instead.
Goose, meet gander
LaMalfa is unexpected
Would love if they went after Issa just as payback for all his crap during the Obama years
wasn't he the rat behind the bogus recall of Gray Davis?
Yes
We nearly defeated him in 2016 and then he "retired" (for all of one term) in 2018. Be nice to flush that toilet for good this time!
my only gripe here is that it shouldn't be conditional on Texas redistricting. Do it regardless, between Texas, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana there will be some GOP rigging of the midterms and California is our best card to play to level the field.
They should go for a 52D-0R map. I was able to draw such a map in DRA, although I did use water contiguity to do it.
Would Sherrod Brown, should be run and win back his seat next year, be able to hold onto it in 2028 for another full term? He was knocked out last year by Moreno because it was a presidential year.
Trump won't be on ballot in 28, but his chaos would be. Dems won't have Biden baggage. I'd say Brown would have a much better chance to hold the seat.
Even if JD Vance was the GOP Presidential candidate for 2028?
Brown would probably run well ahead of whomever the Democratic presidential nominee is. And I'm not sure that Vance has a lot of special home-state appeal, given that he's won only one election there on his own, and that somewhat underwhelmingly.
It would be poetic justice, or something, if Vance were to have difficulty winning his home state presidentially--and if he or any Republican is having trouble in Ohio then they're toast nationally.
Potentially especially if Vance is the nominee. I don't know anyone who likes Vance, and I suspect he'd be a radioactive nominee.
Would Vance have all that much of a home state bonus? He didn't serve in office there long and wasn't especially popular. Also, anecdotally I've noted that the home state bonus tends to be smaller in bigger states more often than not. Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the US.
If Brown runs and wins next year, his chances in 2028 will depend more on how well we're doing across the board than on the specific republican nominee.
At the very least, he’d have a better chance of holding the seat in 2028 without Trump on the ballot than he did in 2024 with him on it. Do I think it’s a Tossup? Nope, Ohio is still very red. But Lean R would probably be appropriate if he takes the plunge. Closer to Safe R without him running, maybe Likely R if Ryan runs, but Democrats have 0 political bench to speak of, so it’s Sherrod or bust imo.
My dream scenario would be Brown running for Senate and Ryan running for Governor. That’d be the strongest ticket possible and may be even close enough to allow Democrats to gain some ground on the State Supreme Court.
Sadly, the parts of Ohio that swung hardest from Obama to Trump (Mahoning/Trumbull counties, coal country) were also the political bases of Brown, Ryan, and Strickland—and it's hard to see those areas getting much bluer in the foreseeable future, even after Trump leaves politics.
They won't get any bluer, but they are bleeding population.
Sure, but some of the worst hemorrhaging is in blue cities like Youngstown. Plus, Ohio's rurals are still a lot more densely-populated than, say, the Wilds region of Pennsylvania.
UNDERWATER
Donald Trump’s approval rating is now 20 points underwater, 38% to 58%, according to a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll. Since April, public approval of his presidency has dropped an additional 6 percentage points.
https://politicalwire.com/2025/08/05/trumps-approval-slides-2/
YouGov poll out today has his approval at -12 among registered voters. -21 in dealing with inflation.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_lSgdLYM.pdf
81% of voters blame Trump for hiding Epstein information. MAGA has broken with Trump on an issue and Democrats need to dig the knife in deeper to the GOP.
14% of Trump voters view him unfavourably now as do 15% of Lean Republican voters.
Especially noteworthy is that nearly half of Americans (48%) say they strongly disapprove of Trump and the percentage of Americans who say they strongly approve of Trump has decreased substantially. Even among Republican respondents, only half strongly approve of the president. The GOP should be concerned about these numbers heading into the odd-year elections in 2025 and, especially, the midterm elections in 2026. It is very difficult for a party to win when its leader is this unpopular.”
So to recap, his base has lost any intensity they had, the independent, Democratic and swing voters have broken from him and holy crap, men only approve at 39% compared to 35% of women (who said anything about a gender gap and Trump’s unbreakable hold on men).
Will this last? I have my doubts given what we saw every other occasion we thought this time people would abandon Trump, but this is the most encouraged I’ve been about permanently breaking Trump’s coalition.
Epstein seems to be the only thing that actually gets through to MAGA. I'm frankly surprised that they care this much, but it does feed into their preoccupation with conspiracy theories. We need to keep it in the news and zeitgeist as much as possible.
It's going to be fun when Trump pardons Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for some statement from her that he can (attempt to) pass off as a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL EXONERATION!"
NY-01: Unless NY somehow can redraw the maps before 2026, this may be nothing more than wave insurance... but the background of this candidate looks solid.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/05/gallant-lalota-long-island-00493460
Sometimes a wave becomes big enough to carry in the insurance candidates to office. See Rep Kendra Horn and Rep Joe Cunningham. If it’s Trump +15 or less we should have strong candidates running real campaigns, because you just never know!
Yes, honestly I think it's more important to invest in "wave insurance" campaigns than it is to, say, try to ratfuck GOP primaries (they seem to do a pretty good job of that on their own).
Both, both is good. I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time. Whatever it takes to win. “There are no rules, anything goes”. This is how the GOP plays the political game, so we need to be willing to do the same.
SC-01 is open again and it’s possible Dems could do both at once. The GOP nominee could be someone who makes Mace look like Brian Fitzpatrick in comparison.
Supporters of Derek Dooley who think that failure as a football coach demonstrates fitness to be a United States Senator might look to the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Raheem Morris, whose career record with the Georgia team is 29-47.
Brian Kemp seems to have the Meidas touch when it comes to recommending GA Republican Senate candidates. Oh well.
I always ask people who use the Midas Touch analogy if they actually read the full story. Haha.
The Sadim touch (reverse Midas).
Morris may be part of a gang of NFL retreads but he’s an active coach. Dooley hasn’t actually coached in Georgia and coached for UGA’s rival. That’s what makes people scratch their heads
Colin Allred played for the Tennessee Titans but managed to get elected to Congress from Dallas, home of Titans rival Cowboys.
The Titans and the Cowboys are not rivals in any way...they're not even in the same conference...
CT GOP is running out of good candidates to run for Governor. Nobody I've seen so far is worth thinking about except Jennifer Tooker, the First Selectman in Westport. Lots of money in that part of the state where Gov. Lamont lives in Greenwich.
Lamont doesn't need to announce at this point. He has the luxury to sit back and see who is showing up to take him on. LOL I do look forward to hear what Rep. Josh Elliott has to offer to be our Governor. Lamont is liked. The CT GOP waste time attacking with no solutions. I think many have grown tired of them along with MAGA candidates that end up on our ballot.
Elliott’s a left challenger. Lamont’s endorsement of Cuomo, coupled with him vetoing a major housing bill (along with another bill I forgot the details of), inspired the challenge.
Hopefully Governor Lamont will take the hint and retire. He's served the Nutmeg State well but we could use some new blood there. It's not like we are lacking for qualified candidates.
Doubt he's not going to run but I do like to see more younger candidates starting to step up.
Name recognition for those who don't pay attention could hurt Elliott. The housing bill was too big and complicated. Lamont liked parts of it but agree with him sending them back to the table to work on it in the next session. Pull out what could work (ex. parking) on both sides of the aisle & I think Lamont will sign some of it.
CT has 169 towns & cities with their own Planning & Zoning Committees. Not an easy task to get them all on the same page regarding zoning issues. We're known as the "land of steady habits" for a reason. Progress can be slow but I welcome good ideas for moving forward. Will wait to see what Elliott comes up with.
He would also have to win over the most registered voters in the state which are unaffiliated. As a closed primary state, you have to be registered with a party to vote. A pain to do if you want to vote in a primary, but you can change your registration and then change it back. Probably drives the town clerks in the 169 towns and cities crazy. I'm one of them. LOL
Cuomo isn't as big as you think it was here in CT. Nobody cares what's happening in NYC.
Oh no I don’t think Cuomo is that big in CT. I was going off what I’d heard on Bluesky.
Local media tried to make an issue of it but it died out pretty quickly.
Are there any other states planning to run referenda on reproductive rights in the coming cycle? Looks like quite a few blue states could add it to their constitutions, like WA, OR, NM, NJ and MA. Seems to be a good idea for both practical reasons and to drive turnout.
Definitely support doing it for the policy reasons, but I'm not sure if there's evidence having it on the ballot boosts turnout.
Arkansas was going to have it on their ballot last year, but the SOS and the state Supreme Court successfully killed it from getting on there due to a so-called paperwork error or that canvassers didn't get enough signatures.
Former Black Hawk pilot Chris Gallant has announced his bid to flip NY-01 blue. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/05/gallant-lalota-long-island-00493460
Excellent background
Cook has the district's PVI as R+4 (four points more R than nation). For comparison sake, other R+4 seats include IA-1, IA-2, PA-8, MO-2 ,and Golden's seat (ME-2).
If we get a strong year in 2026, all of these are winnable. Indeed, I think we should really go after every seat with a PVI of R+4 or bluer. That would be 24 seats currently held by R's.
GA-Gov?: Geoff Duncan has fully switched parties to Democratic.
https://www.wabe.org/former-georgia-lt-gov-geoff-duncan-switches-from-republican-to-democrat/
I was just about to post that. He was one of the biggest critics of Trump lying about how Georgia conducted elections. He also had a symbolic resolution passed against him "expelling" him from the GOP earlier this year by the state party.
If he moves from centre right to centre left after his party switch, I could see him winning the nomination. Otherwise, I’m not sure I’d want him as a Democratic Governor and I don’t know if primary voters would vote for him either. Then again, Democrats haven’t won the office in decades, so maybe Geoff Duncan is the only one who can pull off a victory against a likely MAGA Governor.
EDIT: After reading the article I do like what he says about guns and this quote. We need good people who are there for the right reasons in government, so I’m definitely open to hearing his pitch if he decides to run for office.
Duncan made the announcement in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution opinion piece, where he writes: “Loving my neighbor is easier now.”
I mean if we don't get a better candidate for GA gov than the current crop then i would be open to him since he would be better than a republican.
Jason Esteves is a good candidate
He’d probably have trouble winning a runoff.
If he's serious about the Governorship, he'll move to no worse than centrist. He knows that being anti choice and anti LGBTQ won't sell with today's Democratic Party. Not even in Georgia.
At this point in time I personally am happy to allow anyone who is opposed to Trump into the coalition, but I probably don't represent a majority of Democratic primary voters.
There’s a difference between welcoming people into the coalition and wanting to nominate them for governor. We all should work with whoever we can to oppose Trump, but we do have beliefs and goals of our own that we want to elect people to advance.
Yep, that's what I was getting at with the second part of my comment.
All this talk about the wealthy elite of New York being afraid of Mamdani does more to gain him support from the average voter than anything else I could think of. It’s very simple logic: billionaires and corporations are scared and panicking because he’s actually fighting for the little guy for once. It’s what GOP primary voters concluded when the Republican establishment went against Trump. It’s almost impossible not to draw that conclusion as a voter with Trump supporters/elites propping up Adams and/or Cuomo.
If these two politicians had any political sense at all, they’d disavow donations from Trump supporters and move more to the left to eat into some of Mamdani’s squishy/hesitant backers. That’s how you build an anti-Mamdani coalition (I support Mamdani and this isn’t what I want, I’m just explaining how it could be successful), by winning over some of his voters, not by trying to fight over the minority share of voters who don’t want Mamdani because even if you get all of them, it’s not enough to win.
Politico: https://archive.ph/6QgLJ
Has anyone ran the numbers on what the median House seat would be if all the Republican gerrymanders go through?
Generic Ballot Poll Among Latinos
🔵 Democrats - 48%
🔴 Republicans - 27%
⚪️ Not Sure - 16%
Equis Research
1,614 Registered Latino Voters
July 2025
Split the not sure between the parties and you get:
Democrats 56%
Republicans 35%
Remember that Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024. Even giving Republicans that entire last 9% to make up 100 (they won’t actually get all of them), that would still at minimum be a large shift towards Democrats from 2024 (D+9). Although that would be less than Biden got in 2020.
Work to do, but signs are there that the Democratic base voters who switched to Trump last year are going back to their roots after witnessing yet another chaotic and corrupt Trump presidency with a rubber stamp Republican Congress. Thermostatic opinion doing god’s work in America.
It was 60-39 in 2022.
Yup, like I said, work to do. But way closer to 2022 than 2024 and if you split the other 9% again instead of giving the GOP all of them (which I did to illustrate my point of the shift from 2024, it’s very unlikely “not sure” voters would split 50/50 and remainder would all go Republican), you reach 2022 numbers:
Democrats 61%
Republicans 39%
Democrats don’t even have to win a majority of these voters (although they should absolutely try to!), they just have to split them with the GOP 50/50. Seems eminently doable to me for 2026.
I think Trump's comments today on the GOP being 'entitled to 5 seats' is going to be featured in A LOT of campaign ads for the upcoming Cali constitutional amendment. The good thing Cali Dems have going for them is the GOP has been very explicit that this is a power grab and it will help make it easier to get people to vote YES.
trump is entitled to a number of things but this is a "family site" so restraint must be shown
What a joke.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/clueless-ted-cruz-shamed-by-ny-governor-kathy-hochul-for-murdered-muslim-cop-insult/
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) went after New York Gov. Kathy Hochul for wearing a headscarf to the funeral of the Muslim police officer who was murdered in the NYC shooting. One would think that such a move would be respected as a basic form of courtesy to a fucking slain cop, but apparently not.
I know it's unlikely, but I hope someday Cruz will be voted out.
desparate people do desparate things...cruz is so far gone
Your evidence that he's desperate? I'm reminded of Morgan Freeman's comment: "I hate the word homophobia. It's not a phobia. You're not scared. You're an asshole." Likewise, Cruz is not desperate and can probably win another Senate race. But he's definitely an asshole!
Plus, to the extent that Cruz might be in danger of losing his next election, comments like this do not help him. If he is in danger then stuff like this is why.
Not that this specific event will be remembered by 2030. It can still contribute by being part of a pattern.
Huge D over performance in RI Senate special https://x.com/taniel/status/1952889322514071710?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Whoa. That’s Saddam numbers in a Kamala +11 seat. That kind of over performance only comes from Rs basically punting, normally
which they will do more and more and more as more of them become fed up with the felon....one can hope and wish, right?
Meanwhile, the Delaware race was quite close, per a different tweet:
https://x.com/Taniel/status/1952912106405212292
A possible bad sign?
Wasn’t there another election in Delaware earlier this year where Dems underperformed as well? Maybe turnout patterns are different in Delaware for some reason.
Tweet says Harris carried by 9 so maybe voters not happy with Dover?
That actually mirrors the result from last November there, where the same R candidate lost 49.3-50.7.
Seattle elections, as of this writing:
https://www.kuow.org/stories/live-election-results-aug-5-seattle-area-primary
In the mayors' race, progressive challenger Katie Wilson currently leads incumbent Bruce Harrell 46.4-45, and a runoff will occur.
In the City Attorney's race, Democrat Erika Evans leads Republican Ann Davison 51-37. A runoff will occur.
Apparently the City Council president Sara Nelson is also behind progressive challenger Dionne Foster 53.9-39.2. (Progressive incumbent Alexis Mercedes Rinck is demolishing her nearest opponent, Rachael Savage, 75.8-15.)
The Democracy Vouchers program, which a ballot measure attempted to gut, may be safe after all -- assuming the 55.6-44.4 lead holds.
In the King County Executive race, Girmay Zahilay and Claudia Balducci are headed to a runoff. Current numbers are 40.6-30.4. Zahilay was a Working Families Party endorsee.
Assuming all these numbers hold, progressives are having a good night in Seattle.
If "progressives" can't have a good night in Seattle they can't have a good night anywhere.
Progressives had been on the decline prior. Harrell is a centrist, as were most of the city council.
This is a change in direction (so far) as to how things have been going.
Local politics can be and often is different from federal politics. It's not at all uncommon for cities that vote 70%, 80%, or even 90% dem in federal elections and consistently prefer more progressive dems for congress to also pick out moderate/establishment leaders for local office.
Surprisingly good results for progressives. I’ll note I voted for Balducci for County Exec because she’s been very solid on transit issues, and will do so again in November, but I’m fine with Zahilay. There is not that big a difference between the two.
I imagine Harrell has a slight advantage with a broader general electorate than an August primary come November but that’s a surprisingly good showing by Wilson. I do not think she has what it takes to be a good mayor.
As for Sara Nelson, good riddance. She’s a horrible NIMBY and I’m glad she’s starting the general at a disadvantage
I feel similarly. I voted for Balducci, but don't have a problem with either one of them. They both strike me as common sense progressives - i.e. maybe a bit to my left, but reasonable people who would make good executives.