207 Comments
User's avatar
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
JazElections's avatar

Happy birthday to your mom! My dad's is Thursday. Harris appears to be struggling in populous Cobb County, barely overperforming the result from a month ago. I'm surprised he's winning in Floyd and Whitfield.

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
JazElections's avatar

Who are the 9% of Democrats that support a genocide of Iranians?

JanusIanitos's avatar

To get -91 would be more like 95 opposed, 4 support, 1 undecided.

Weird responses in the ~5% range is typical in polling. There's a portion of respondents that intentionally give random or illogical answers.

Zero Cool's avatar

Democrats in name only

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7Edited
Comment deleted
AnthonySF's avatar

I assume that's GOP-held seats? Otherwise makes no sense

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7Edited
Comment deleted
Techno00's avatar

Interesting that Landsman is now Lean D. Maybe the GOP candidate there hasn’t really taken off?

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Sabato made the same change a couple weeks ago, could be candidate quality and/or national environment.

JazElections's avatar

Landsman has tripled Conroy in fundraising, and his only major endorsement comes from Sen. Bernie Moreno. Additionally, wealthy businessman (a term The Downballot loves to use) Steve Erbeck is weakening Conroy in the Republican primary.

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7Edited
Comment deleted
michaelflutist's avatar

Probably not a dummymander, just a gerrymander defeated this time by a wave.

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
michaelflutist's avatar

No. A gerrymander is expected to work in an average or somewhat unfavorable year. Some are not strong enough to withstand waves.

anonymouse's avatar

Yeah, not a dummymander since the map as drawn would hold more often than not and still have more Republican than Dem seats even if Davis and Ager win this year.

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

Davis surviving certainly is possible, as is Dems winning NC-11.

But if Trump and Republicans' popularity falls further, the state could go full dummymander. Under the new lines, the most conservative congressional district in NC voted for Trump by only a 19.4% margin (NC-08). A number of districts are around Trump +15. In 2020, Cooper's worst district (also NC-08) was a loss by only around 12. In 2024, Stein actually won all of them except NC-08 (which he barely lost).

If things get worse for Republicans, some of these GOP-held districts besides NC-11 would end up within reach of Democratic candidates too. A total wipeout isn't off the table.

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
michaelflutist's avatar

What will Cornyn do with all that money when he loses?

JazElections's avatar

Buy a nice ranch in Austin, a mansion in Preston Hollow, or maybe a condo in Houston.

User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Apr 7
Comment deleted
bpfish's avatar

I wonder if the UT-01 primary is driving up Dem registrations...or the excitement of being able to vote in November for a Dem who will actually win.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Is this statewide or just UT-1?

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
JazElections's avatar

Not sure if Hosemann will run for governor. He would be 80 (!!) if elected and is already in poor health.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
Noah's avatar

I’m going optimistic and so I’m going to say 58-42

MPC's avatar

I think it'll probably be an identical 55-45 win akin to Crawford. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was larger or smaller than that.

Fred Hanson's avatar

So you are saying that the dem will win but not by what margin.

Henrik's avatar

I’ll say 53-47

TylerDurden's avatar

57 - 43 (although it’s too bad Elon didn’t show up with that cheesehead so he could piss off even more voters)

TrumpsTaxes's avatar

My guess is a similar or slightly larger margin than the usual, but with lower overall turnout. If turnout is somehow equal to or larger than last year's turnout after all of the Elon-inspired publicity it got, I'd be shocked.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

54-46 win for "Fearless" Chris Taylor!

anonymouse's avatar

59-41 Taylor. She keeps Crawford’s counties but flips Ozaukee, Grant, Lafayette, Dunn, and Pierce.

ArcticStones's avatar

EYES ON HUNGARY – echoes of TRUMP!

Hungary holds parliamentary election this upcoming Sunday, 12 April. The parallels between the Hungary and the USA are uncanny. No wonder! Trump’s key MAGA people, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, have been working closely with Viktor Orbán’s for many years to engineer an autocratic takeover, to engineer society, and to engineer elections.

That’s why it should come as no surprise that JD Vance is making a special trip to Hungary to boost Orbán’s election chances.

If you care about America’s November Midterm Elections, Joyce Vance’s (no relation to JD!) interview with Prof. Kim Scheppele about Hungary’s upcoming elections is not to be missed. Why? Because Trump yearns to imitate Orbán’s power grab. The information revealed in this interview is stunning and deeply unsettling.

https://joycevance.substack.com/p/understanding-hungarys-upcoming-election

“Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a 20-point lead in the polls – and yet we don’t know whether he can win because of the way Viktor Orbán has engineered the structure of the election itself.”

– Prof. Kim Scheppele

A stunning factoid about Hungary: “After Viktor Orbán first came to power in 2010, he gerrymandered the whole country to the point that in the 2014 election, he won 45 % of the vote – but 91 % of the single-member districts.”

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
Blomstervaenget's avatar

Incorrect - there was 55% against him.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

No Kildere is correct, that's how FPTP voting works. It doesn't matter if there's 55% voting against you if they're split between 4 parties.

Blomstervaenget's avatar

Not in a true parliamentary system where parties should get members consistent with their percentage of votes. It is not the US/UK system of a winner by district.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
Corey Olomon's avatar

It is important to note that unlike most countries with Mixed Member Parliment (like Germany and New Zealand) where the at large seats are used to equalize the total number of seafs match the popular vote. If Hungary was like that Orban's party would not gotten any at large list seats because they won more single member districts that their share of the popular would have dictated. But instead if you get 45% of the party list vote you get 45% of the at large seats no matter if you won all the single member districts or none. In countries that operate similar to Hungary (like Japan and Russia) it heavily favors the big dominant party (the LDP and United Russia).

Paleo's avatar

I think the point was because of gerrymandering he received 45% of the vote but over 90% of the seats.

Marcus Graly's avatar

It doesn't really say much one way or another without more information about how the votes are distributed in Hungary. If Fidesz supporters are spread fairly evenly throughout the country you could get a result like that without gerrymandering. Massachusetts is a good example of that. The districts are lightly gerrymandered, but an ungerrymandered map would also be 9-0 in most elections, since there is no region where Republican strength is sufficiently concentrated. Likewise the overwhelming Dem supermajorities in the legislature are unlikely to change much regardless of the map.

Paleo's avatar

Democrats get 45% of the statewide vote in Massachusetts?

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

That's not what Marcus said.

Marcus Graly's avatar

A 60-40 victory (Warren in the most recent senate race) is not that different from a 45-27 victory.

Paleo's avatar

As I've said, a sitting vice-president or president actively campaigning for a candidate in a foreign election is unprecedented. Yet, don't look for the media or the Democratic leadership in congress to highlight this fact.

AnthonySF's avatar

Don't think anyone is looking to Dem leadership in Congress on this (or much else)

Politics and Economiks's avatar

Radio silence on so many things... its extremely frustrating.

Paleo's avatar

Schumer actually called Trump a madman today. I hear they hold a mirror up to Hakeem Jeffries’ mouth once a day to make sure he’s still breathing.

Marliss Desens's avatar

I watched it yesterday. Anyone who loves democracy, at home or abroad, needs to watch and learn from it.

Henrik's avatar

Is JD Vance popular enough even with Fidesz supporters to make a difference? European far right parties have been ditching Trump left and right

hilltopper's avatar

For a good look at polls, projected seats and the positions of the parties, this site seems pretty good: https://politpro.eu/en/hungary

Henrik's avatar

That was super useful! Looks like if nothing else Fidesz will be very hard pressed to keep their supermajorities on which so much of what they do relies upon.

Zack from the SFV's avatar

Fun from California:

Mad King Donald has proven his strategic incompetence once again. The only way for the CAGOP to win CA-Gov would be for the Repubs to run even with each other and grab the two spots in the runoff against a divided Democratic field of candidates. Instead Tr*mp is making it so that Hilton, his endorsee, will run ahead of Sheriff Ballot-thief from Riverside County. I never thought there would be a Repub top two, but now that seems impossible. Thanks, Tr*mp!

The Los Angeles mayoral race has a problem for the Repubs as well. Their candidate, reality show dude Spencer Pratt, does not currently live in our city. After the fire last year destroyed his house in Pacific Palisades (a neighborhood in the city of L.A.) he moved into a house his father owns in Carpinteria. Carpinteria is a beach town that is in Santa Barbara County, almost 100 miles from the nearest part of the City of Angels. While it is tragic for all the people who lost their homes in the fires, you still have to live in L.A. to run for Mayor of Los Angeles. Not that Pratt was going to win, but the level of arrogance and incompetence is amazing.

So there is some good news in these crazy times...

Paleo's avatar

Maine People's Resource Center poll:

Platner 61

Mills 28

Platner 48

Collins 39

Collins 45

Mills 42

https://static.notus.org/0b/9f/97515a054eaa89882d18ab798388/poll.pdf

Topline numbers only.

bpfish's avatar

Humiliating for a sitting governor, but she's running an awful campaign and deserves it. At this point, she's probably only staying in the race in the hope that Platner's campaign will fall apart, but that clearly would have happened by now if it was going to.

In related news, Platner has started pivoting to the general election vs. Collins.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

This race is wild. Mills is running a horrible campaign.

ClimateHawk's avatar

She has been s poor Guv and is low energy.

She'd have lost to Collins.

stevk's avatar

In this environment, I doubt it, and not sure why you think she's been a poor governor. Regardless, it's clear Platner is going to be the nominee, so it's time for all of us to get on board.

D S's avatar

No, I think some of us can continue to resent his existence, even if I'd prefer him over Collins.

AnthonySF's avatar

So have Maine voters (a la the general election) just not heard of Platner's issues and he'll come crashing down in the fall, or do these types of scandals have no impact in a post-Trump world?

ClimateHawk's avatar

It is a tat from 20 years ago. It just isn't that big of a deal, IMHO.

And it looks like most Mainers agree.

stevk's avatar

Firstly, the tat is a big deal. Secondly, that is far from his only issue.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

Pretty sure Mills has been slamming him for weeks and it hasn’t made a dent in his support.

stevk's avatar

That's not the point I was making. It's clear that he will survive these attacks. I was disagreeing personally with ClimateHawk's point.

JazElections's avatar

https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/WhoFiled/WhoFiled

NY-Comptroller: Additional interesting piece of information I found with New York's filing deadline - former Kansas state Rep. Raj Goyle, who lost a high-profile race for Congress to future Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2010, is challenging longtime Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Wow, blast from the past. Has DiNapoli done anything to merit being primaried?

JazElections's avatar

Not really, and DiNapoli received the endorsement of the New York Democratic Party, so Goyle probably won't make a splash.

michaelflutist's avatar

That's kind of odd. What's his beef with DiNapoli?

JazElections's avatar

What alienalias said, that DiNapoli apparently isn't using his job to the fullest extent to help New Yorkers. Kind of like the national Democrats right now.

michaelflutist's avatar

I'd like to know more about what he's not doing and could do. My impression is that he's been popular and effective and will probably win easily again, but I'm always happy to consider new information and arguments.

stevk's avatar

What would you like national Dems, who are in the minority of both houses (and, frankly, on the Supreme Court) and don't hold the presidency, to do differently to "help Americans"?

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Minnesota State Sen. Erin Maye Quade seems to believe that Trump may order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran as soon as tonight, based on her interpretation of an unhinged Truth Social post by Trump:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DW1V76yGI1k/?igsh=bzI5bnFpbml3cTU3

I sincerely hope that doesn't come to pass. I remember back in 2016 when the now-deceased basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed Trump and boasted about how Trump was willing to use nuclear weapons in war.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/621427/bobby-knight-suggests-donald-trump-have-guts-nuke-enemy

Henrik's avatar

I doubt it, personally, but he seems more unhinged than usual the last month after Iran didn’t roll over and he lost the tariff case. He can feel his position weakening and he’s lashing out, because his narcissism can’t handle that.

He has never been more dangerous nor more weak

JazElections's avatar

On a slightly unrelated note - do you think Quade could make a good Senator to succeed Klobuchar, or possibly even Klobuchar's lieutenant?

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

EMQ would probably be the most progressive member of the Senate if appointed, so I would think that she would be an amazing U.S. Senator if elected.

However, I doubt that Klobuchar would appoint EMQ or someone who is similarly progressive. I would guess that Klobuchar would appoint someone from the moderate faction of the DFL like herself, but I could be very wrong about that.

JazElections's avatar

I could also see Erin Murphy, Quade's running mate when the former ran for governor in 2018, be appointed.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

At 66, not sure Murphy is the most likely choice.

JazElections's avatar

Same age as Klobuchar. Could be more of a placeholder.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Yes well Klobuchar is a three-plus-term incumbent =P idk if Murphy would want to be a placeholder since she's currently Senate Majority Leader.

Oggoldy's avatar

I disagree with Klobuchar being considered a moderate. She is definitely a liberal, just not DSA. The DSA remains a small fraction of the party, so defining Klobuchar / any non-DSA candisate is a "moderate" would mean 90% of Democrats as moderates, and that's simply not accurate.

That being said, Maye Quade is not at the top of the list for Klobuchar to appoint / run as LG. My eyes are firmly on former DFL Senate Leader Melissa Lopez Franzen as a top-tier contender for one of those two positions. She is young st 45, and hasn't announced any election plans since she quietly stepped out of the Flannagan-Craig for Tina Smith's Senate seat a few months ago.

JazElections's avatar

In the United States, she's a liberal. You could argue that most people like Klobuchar could be considered moderate or even conservative in the broader international political sense.

And not all progressive Democrats are affiliated with the DSA.

Oggoldy's avatar

Overton windows are unique to each country. In some parts of the world Trumpism would be considered moderate. We dont live in those places, nor does our country have the same political dividing lines as say Pakistan, Yemen, or Norway or New Zealand

Klobuchar is a liberal in the US, where she serves as a Senator

michaelflutist's avatar

Can you name a democracy where Trumpism would be considered moderate? I don't think pointing to places like Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion.

ClimateHawk's avatar

She backed Biden over Bernie or Warren. She is a mainstream Dem.

There are not too many Dem Senators I'd call progressive. Bernie is the only Senator who is a CPC member.

But I'd call Warren, Merkley, and Markey good progressives easily. Van Hollen, Blunt Rochester, Booker, Tina Smith (sadly retiring), and Padilla in the ballpark.

But the center of then Dem party has moved left. Too little and too late to stop Trump from winning twice.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I wouldn't read too much into Bernie being the only CPC member in the Senate; Senators don't really join the ideological caucuses. There are no Senators in the New Democrat Coalition or Blue Dogs.

D S's avatar

On some economic issues, sure, but people tend to look past the fact that in the grand scheme of things, the Democratic Party is very socially progressive.

JazElections's avatar

Apart from a little bit of lingering racism (i.e. Biden) and throwing transgender people under the bus (i.e. Newsom, Moulton), I would tend to agree. Would be nice if they championed social rights more than other things (along with human rights in general).

benamery21's avatar

Semantics aside, Klobuchar is right of the center of the Democratic Senate caucus, which is right of the center of the Democratic electorate.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
JazElections's avatar

Right/center. Either way, she's out of touch with the base.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I don't think Quade has any special insight into Trump's mind, that's just irresponsible.

Paleo's avatar

She's not the only one who's raised that possibility. What's irresponsible is the original posting.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Both can be irresponsible.

Mr. Rochester's avatar

I don't think it's irresponsible. Trump is losing his mind and right now, people are more upset about gas prices rising than the fact that we're committing war crimes in Iran. It's not likely Trump will drop a nuclear weapon, but the fact that there's even a chance that he could is terrifying. People need to wake up to this reality, and so while the post is speculative, it's not out of line.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Yeah I didn't see the Trump post about "a civilization ending tonight", which is unhinged.

Guy Cohen's avatar

To be fair, that can be interpreted as his threats to bomb power plants, which is still horrific but not as bad as nukes.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

The vibe I got from EMQ's statement is that she was voicing a rational fear that a lot of people have about Trump and not offering hard political or military analysis.

Paleo's avatar

"End of civilization" could certainly lead to that interpretation.

Guy Cohen's avatar

Could also be about the power plant strikes he threatened. Turning it into a Syria-like failed state could be the result of these strikes, which is a horiffic outcome but it's not nukes.

Techno00's avatar

This is terrifying. I sincerely hope this doesn’t lead to some truly horrific fate like nuclear winter down the line.

Guy Cohen's avatar

I do not believe he will use a nuke or that nuclear winter will happen any time soon. But I do believe he'll commit horrific war crimes.

Techno00's avatar

That does sound more likely. I also suspect that if a nuclear option were truly being considered, we would have heard about it by now via news headlines like “Trump Admin Reportedly Considering Nuclear Option” or something like that. I do not believe an option that extreme would have been planned without someone along the way leaking it, particularly given the scope of what could happen. Or maybe I’m naive and too hopeful. I don’t know.

Zero Cool's avatar

Two week ceasefire has just been announced between the U.S. and Iran.

For now, the nuclear weapons threat is over.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmnp06jg2000i356r5p5o2990

Paleo's avatar

The following have joined the calls to remove Trump from office

Candace Owens

Alex Jones

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tucker Carlson

User's avatar
Comment removed
Apr 7
Comment removed
JazElections's avatar

I fear Vance actually buys into what the administration is selling, while Trump kind of just goes with it and doesn't actually believe in anything except himself.

FeingoldFan's avatar

Probably not, but I’d be a lot less concerned about him accidentally starting a nuclear war.

michaelflutist's avatar

Not attack Iran without a plan?

Mark's avatar

Even if Vance pivoted back to the guy he was in 2016, Trump would still pull his strings from his social media account. Trump would rally the MAGA troops to make Vance's life miserable if he did anything that he didn't agree with. Vance would surrender to Trump's online whims to appease the MAGA base. The result: as long as Trump is alive, he will call the shots of whoever Republican succeeds him.

Henrik's avatar

Wow. All people who’ve jumped ship earlier but, you know, not exactly liberals

JazElections's avatar

I feel like a lot of those people's problems with Trump is that he's collaborating with Israel on this Iran war, and they're all antisemitic.

michaelflutist's avatar

So particularly smelly enemies of our enemy.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Owens was a Sanders/Trump 2016 voter, IIRC, whereas the other three are longtime hard-right extremists who never had a history of voicing opposition against the far-right until very recently.

Zero Cool's avatar

Owens if I'm not mistaken was very anti-Sanders from the beginning. She referred to him back in 2020 as a racist along with him and Lyndon Johnson doing nothing for the black community. Quite honestly, Owens pulls so much shit out of her ass I don't think she's able to show she's got real convictions or gives a damn about anything.

Tucker Carlson on the other hand actually wants to have intellectual conversations even if he's full of himself a lot.

Mike Boland's avatar

Thank God that Trump endorsed in the Republican primary for governor so the danger of Democrats splitting the vote among themselves that would lead to 2 GOP candidates on the general election ballot for governor is lessened. It is crucial that the top 2 nominating election system be changed to a system much like other states have. Sad that the bottom dwellers in the Democratic contest did not use their power to call it quits and endorse one of the top 3. Personally I would love to see the transphobic attacks and the stealing of ballots by the sheriff blow up non his face. Hopefully the voters can dump his butt next time he stands for election.

Zero Cool's avatar

I would like to see Trump endorse as many incumbent House Republicans in CA for re-election so Democrats can maximize turnout in unseating them.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/04/mayor-mamdani-fills-100-000th-pothole-in-first-100-days

Yesterday, New York mayor Zohran Mamdani filled the 100,000th pothole since he took office in January - the fastest pace since Bill de Blasio in 2015.