Final predictions for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
The political environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans in the past year, and Taylor's large financial advantage indicates she'll probably outperform Crawford last year. But Wisconsin hardly ever has landslide statewide elections, and Republican die-hards are going to turn out no matter what. I'm going with a 56-44 Taylor victory.
My guess is a similar or slightly larger margin than the usual, but with lower overall turnout. If turnout is somehow equal to or larger than last year's turnout after all of the Elon-inspired publicity it got, I'd be shocked.
Hungary holds parliamentary election this upcoming Sunday, 12 April. The parallels between the Hungary and the USA are uncanny. No wonder! Trump’s key MAGA people, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, have been working closely with Viktor Orbán’s for many years to engineer an autocratic takeover, to engineer society, and to engineer elections.
That’s why it should come as no surprise that JD Vance is making a special trip to Hungary to boost Orbán’s election chances.
If you care about America’s November Midterm Elections, Joyce Vance’s (no relation to JD!) interview with Prof. Kim Scheppele about Hungary’s upcoming elections is not to be missed. Why? Because Trump yearns to imitate Orbán’s power grab. The information revealed in this interview is stunning and deeply unsettling.
“Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a 20-point lead in the polls – and yet we don’t know whether he can win because of the way Viktor Orbán has engineered the structure of the election itself.”
– Prof. Kim Scheppele
A stunning factoid about Hungary: “After Viktor Orbán first came to power in 2010, he gerrymandered the whole country to the point that in the 2014 election, he won 45 % of the vote – but 91 % of the single-member districts.”
As I've said, a sitting vice-president or president actively campaigning for a candidate in a foreign election is unprecedented. Yet, don't look for the media or the Democratic leadership in congress to highlight this fact.
Eh, that "stunning factoid" is a little bit misleading, because the second-place party in 2014 received only 27% of the vote. So Fidesz still won the popular vote by an 18% margin.
The discrepancy won't be so big this time because this election is basically just a two-way election - Fidesz or TISZA.
Not in a true parliamentary system where parties should get members consistent with their percentage of votes. It is not the US/UK system of a winner by district.
Hungary isn't a true parliamentary system. A majority of seats are allocated by FPTP contests. Only 93 of the 199 total seats are allocated by proportional representation.
It doesn't really say much one way or another without more information about how the votes are distributed in Hungary. If Fidesz supporters are spread fairly evenly throughout the country you could get a result like that without gerrymandering. Massachusetts is a good example of that. The districts are lightly gerrymandered, but an ungerrymandered map would also be 9-0 in most elections, since there is no region where Republican strength is sufficiently concentrated. Likewise the overwhelming Dem supermajorities in the legislature are unlikely to change much regardless of the map.
Mad King Donald has proven his strategic incompetence once again. The only way for the CAGOP to win CA-Gov would be for the Repubs to run even with each other and grab the two spots in the runoff against a divided Democratic field of candidates. Instead Tr*mp is making it so that Hilton, his endorsee, will run ahead of Sheriff Ballot-thief from Riverside County. I never thought there would be a Repub top two, but now that seems impossible. Thanks, Tr*mp!
The Los Angeles mayoral race has a problem for the Repubs as well. Their candidate, reality show dude Spencer Pratt, does not currently live in our city. After the fire last year destroyed his house in Pacific Palisades (a neighborhood in the city of L.A.) he moved into a house his father owns in Carpinteria. Carpinteria is a beach town that is in Santa Barbara County, almost 100 miles from the nearest part of the City of Angels. While it is tragic for all the people who lost their homes in the fires, you still have to live in L.A. to run for Mayor of Los Angeles. Not that Pratt was going to win, but the level of arrogance and incompetence is amazing.
So there is some good news in these crazy times...
Humiliating for a sitting governor, but she's running an awful campaign and deserves it. At this point, she's probably only staying in the race in the hope that Platner's campaign will fall apart, but that clearly would have happened by now if it was going to.
In related news, Platner has started pivoting to the general election vs. Collins.
NY-Comptroller: Additional interesting piece of information I found with New York's filing deadline - former Kansas state Rep. Raj Goyle, who lost a high-profile race for Congress to future Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2010, is challenging longtime Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary.
Minnesota State Sen. Erin Maye Quade seems to believe that Trump may order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran as soon as tonight, based on her interpretation of an unhinged Truth Social post by Trump:
I sincerely hope that doesn't come to pass. I remember back in 2016 when the now-deceased basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed Trump and boasted about how Trump was willing to use nuclear weapons in war.
I doubt it, personally, but he seems more unhinged than usual the last month after Iran didn’t roll over and he lost the tariff case. He can feel his position weakening and he’s lashing out, because his narcissism can’t handle that.
EMQ would probably be the most progressive member of the Senate if appointed, so I would think that she would be an amazing U.S. Senator if elected.
However, I doubt that Klobuchar would appoint EMQ or someone who is similarly progressive. I would guess that Klobuchar would appoint someone from the moderate faction of the DFL like herself, but I could be very wrong about that.
Thank God that Trump endorsed in the Republican primary for governor so the danger of Democrats splitting the vote among themselves that would lead to 2 GOP candidates on the general election ballot for governor is lessened. It is crucial that the top 2 nominating election system be changed to a system much like other states have. Sad that the bottom dwellers in the Democratic contest did not use their power to call it quits and endorse one of the top 3. Personally I would love to see the transphobic attacks and the stealing of ballots by the sheriff blow up non his face. Hopefully the voters can dump his butt next time he stands for election.
Final predictions for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
The political environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans in the past year, and Taylor's large financial advantage indicates she'll probably outperform Crawford last year. But Wisconsin hardly ever has landslide statewide elections, and Republican die-hards are going to turn out no matter what. I'm going with a 56-44 Taylor victory.
I’m going optimistic and so I’m going to say 58-42
I think it'll probably be an identical 55-45 win akin to Crawford. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was larger or smaller than that.
I’ll say 53-47
57 - 43 (although it’s too bad Elon didn’t show up with that cheesehead so he could piss off even more voters)
My guess is a similar or slightly larger margin than the usual, but with lower overall turnout. If turnout is somehow equal to or larger than last year's turnout after all of the Elon-inspired publicity it got, I'd be shocked.
54-46 win for "Fearless" Chris Taylor!
EYES ON HUNGARY – echoes of TRUMP!
Hungary holds parliamentary election this upcoming Sunday, 12 April. The parallels between the Hungary and the USA are uncanny. No wonder! Trump’s key MAGA people, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, have been working closely with Viktor Orbán’s for many years to engineer an autocratic takeover, to engineer society, and to engineer elections.
That’s why it should come as no surprise that JD Vance is making a special trip to Hungary to boost Orbán’s election chances.
If you care about America’s November Midterm Elections, Joyce Vance’s (no relation to JD!) interview with Prof. Kim Scheppele about Hungary’s upcoming elections is not to be missed. Why? Because Trump yearns to imitate Orbán’s power grab. The information revealed in this interview is stunning and deeply unsettling.
https://joycevance.substack.com/p/understanding-hungarys-upcoming-election
“Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a 20-point lead in the polls – and yet we don’t know whether he can win because of the way Viktor Orbán has engineered the structure of the election itself.”
– Prof. Kim Scheppele
A stunning factoid about Hungary: “After Viktor Orbán first came to power in 2010, he gerrymandered the whole country to the point that in the 2014 election, he won 45 % of the vote – but 91 % of the single-member districts.”
As I've said, a sitting vice-president or president actively campaigning for a candidate in a foreign election is unprecedented. Yet, don't look for the media or the Democratic leadership in congress to highlight this fact.
I watched it yesterday. Anyone who loves democracy, at home or abroad, needs to watch and learn from it.
Eh, that "stunning factoid" is a little bit misleading, because the second-place party in 2014 received only 27% of the vote. So Fidesz still won the popular vote by an 18% margin.
The discrepancy won't be so big this time because this election is basically just a two-way election - Fidesz or TISZA.
Incorrect - there was 55% against him.
No Kildere is correct, that's how FPTP voting works. It doesn't matter if there's 55% voting against you if they're split between 4 parties.
Not in a true parliamentary system where parties should get members consistent with their percentage of votes. It is not the US/UK system of a winner by district.
Hungary isn't a true parliamentary system. A majority of seats are allocated by FPTP contests. Only 93 of the 199 total seats are allocated by proportional representation.
I think the point was because of gerrymandering he received 45% of the vote but over 90% of the seats.
It doesn't really say much one way or another without more information about how the votes are distributed in Hungary. If Fidesz supporters are spread fairly evenly throughout the country you could get a result like that without gerrymandering. Massachusetts is a good example of that. The districts are lightly gerrymandered, but an ungerrymandered map would also be 9-0 in most elections, since there is no region where Republican strength is sufficiently concentrated. Likewise the overwhelming Dem supermajorities in the legislature are unlikely to change much regardless of the map.
Democrats get 45% of the statewide vote in Massachusetts?
That's not what Marcus said.
A 60-40 victory (Warren in the most recent senate race) is not that different from a 45-27 victory.
Is JD Vance popular enough even with Fidesz supporters to make a difference? European far right parties have been ditching Trump left and right
Fun from California:
Mad King Donald has proven his strategic incompetence once again. The only way for the CAGOP to win CA-Gov would be for the Repubs to run even with each other and grab the two spots in the runoff against a divided Democratic field of candidates. Instead Tr*mp is making it so that Hilton, his endorsee, will run ahead of Sheriff Ballot-thief from Riverside County. I never thought there would be a Repub top two, but now that seems impossible. Thanks, Tr*mp!
The Los Angeles mayoral race has a problem for the Repubs as well. Their candidate, reality show dude Spencer Pratt, does not currently live in our city. After the fire last year destroyed his house in Pacific Palisades (a neighborhood in the city of L.A.) he moved into a house his father owns in Carpinteria. Carpinteria is a beach town that is in Santa Barbara County, almost 100 miles from the nearest part of the City of Angels. While it is tragic for all the people who lost their homes in the fires, you still have to live in L.A. to run for Mayor of Los Angeles. Not that Pratt was going to win, but the level of arrogance and incompetence is amazing.
So there is some good news in these crazy times...
Maine People's Resource Center poll:
Platner 61
Mills 28
Platner 48
Collins 39
Collins 45
Mills 42
https://static.notus.org/0b/9f/97515a054eaa89882d18ab798388/poll.pdf
Topline numbers only.
Humiliating for a sitting governor, but she's running an awful campaign and deserves it. At this point, she's probably only staying in the race in the hope that Platner's campaign will fall apart, but that clearly would have happened by now if it was going to.
In related news, Platner has started pivoting to the general election vs. Collins.
https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/WhoFiled/WhoFiled
NY-Comptroller: Additional interesting piece of information I found with New York's filing deadline - former Kansas state Rep. Raj Goyle, who lost a high-profile race for Congress to future Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2010, is challenging longtime Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary.
Wow, blast from the past. Has DiNapoli done anything to merit being primaried?
Not really, and DiNapoli received the endorsement of the New York Democratic Party, so Goyle probably won't make a splash.
Minnesota State Sen. Erin Maye Quade seems to believe that Trump may order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran as soon as tonight, based on her interpretation of an unhinged Truth Social post by Trump:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DW1V76yGI1k/?igsh=bzI5bnFpbml3cTU3
I sincerely hope that doesn't come to pass. I remember back in 2016 when the now-deceased basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed Trump and boasted about how Trump was willing to use nuclear weapons in war.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/621427/bobby-knight-suggests-donald-trump-have-guts-nuke-enemy
I doubt it, personally, but he seems more unhinged than usual the last month after Iran didn’t roll over and he lost the tariff case. He can feel his position weakening and he’s lashing out, because his narcissism can’t handle that.
He has never been more dangerous nor more weak
On a slightly unrelated note - do you think Quade could make a good Senator to succeed Klobuchar, or possibly even Klobuchar's lieutenant?
This stunt by her certainly doesn't give me confidence.
EMQ would probably be the most progressive member of the Senate if appointed, so I would think that she would be an amazing U.S. Senator if elected.
However, I doubt that Klobuchar would appoint EMQ or someone who is similarly progressive. I would guess that Klobuchar would appoint someone from the moderate faction of the DFL like herself, but I could be very wrong about that.
I could also see Erin Murphy, Quade's running mate when the former ran for governor in 2018, be appointed.
At 66, not sure Murphy is the most likely choice.
I don't think Quade has any special insight into Trump's mind, that's just irresponsible.
She's not the only one who's raised that possibility. What's irresponsible is the original posting.
Both can be irresponsible.
"End of civilization" could certainly lead to that interpretation.
This is terrifying. I sincerely hope this doesn’t lead to some truly horrific fate like nuclear winter down the line.
Thank God that Trump endorsed in the Republican primary for governor so the danger of Democrats splitting the vote among themselves that would lead to 2 GOP candidates on the general election ballot for governor is lessened. It is crucial that the top 2 nominating election system be changed to a system much like other states have. Sad that the bottom dwellers in the Democratic contest did not use their power to call it quits and endorse one of the top 3. Personally I would love to see the transphobic attacks and the stealing of ballots by the sheriff blow up non his face. Hopefully the voters can dump his butt next time he stands for election.