Final predictions for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
The political environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans in the past year, and Taylor's large financial advantage indicates she'll probably outperform Crawford last year. But Wisconsin hardly ever has landslide statewide elections, and Republican die-hards are going to turn out no matter what. I'm going with a 56-44 Taylor victory.
My guess is a similar or slightly larger margin than the usual, but with lower overall turnout. If turnout is somehow equal to or larger than last year's turnout after all of the Elon-inspired publicity it got, I'd be shocked.
Hungary holds parliamentary election this upcoming Sunday, 12 April. The parallels between the Hungary and the USA are uncanny. No wonder! Trump’s key MAGA people, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, have been working closely with Viktor Orbán’s for many years to engineer an autocratic takeover, to engineer society, and to engineer elections.
That’s why it should come as no surprise that JD Vance is making a special trip to Hungary to boost Orbán’s election chances.
If you care about America’s November Midterm Elections, Joyce Vance’s (no relation to JD!) interview with Prof. Kim Scheppele about Hungary’s upcoming elections is not to be missed. Why? Because Trump yearns to imitate Orbán’s power grab. The information revealed in this interview is stunning and deeply unsettling.
“Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a 20-point lead in the polls – and yet we don’t know whether he can win because of the way Viktor Orbán has engineered the structure of the election itself.”
– Prof. Kim Scheppele
A stunning factoid about Hungary: “After Viktor Orbán first came to power in 2010, he gerrymandered the whole country to the point that in the 2014 election, he won 45 % of the vote – but 91 % of the single-member districts.”
As I've said, a sitting vice-president or president actively campaigning for a candidate in a foreign election is unprecedented. Yet, don't look for the media or the Democratic leadership in congress to highlight this fact.
Eh, that "stunning factoid" is a little bit misleading, because the second-place party in 2014 received only 27% of the vote. So Fidesz still won the popular vote by an 18% margin.
The discrepancy won't be so big this time because this election is basically just a two-way election - Fidesz or TISZA.
Not in a true parliamentary system where parties should get members consistent with their percentage of votes. It is not the US/UK system of a winner by district.
Hungary isn't a true parliamentary system. A majority of seats are allocated by FPTP contests. Only 93 of the 199 total seats are allocated by proportional representation.
It is important to note that unlike most countries with Mixed Member Parliment (like Germany and New Zealand) where the at large seats are used to equalize the total number of seafs match the popular vote. If Hungary was like that Orban's party would not gotten any at large list seats because they won more single member districts that their share of the popular would have dictated. But instead if you get 45% of the party list vote you get 45% of the at large seats no matter if you won all the single member districts or none. In countries that operate similar to Hungary (like Japan and Russia) it heavily favors the big dominant party (the LDP and United Russia).
It doesn't really say much one way or another without more information about how the votes are distributed in Hungary. If Fidesz supporters are spread fairly evenly throughout the country you could get a result like that without gerrymandering. Massachusetts is a good example of that. The districts are lightly gerrymandered, but an ungerrymandered map would also be 9-0 in most elections, since there is no region where Republican strength is sufficiently concentrated. Likewise the overwhelming Dem supermajorities in the legislature are unlikely to change much regardless of the map.
That was super useful! Looks like if nothing else Fidesz will be very hard pressed to keep their supermajorities on which so much of what they do relies upon.
Mad King Donald has proven his strategic incompetence once again. The only way for the CAGOP to win CA-Gov would be for the Repubs to run even with each other and grab the two spots in the runoff against a divided Democratic field of candidates. Instead Tr*mp is making it so that Hilton, his endorsee, will run ahead of Sheriff Ballot-thief from Riverside County. I never thought there would be a Repub top two, but now that seems impossible. Thanks, Tr*mp!
The Los Angeles mayoral race has a problem for the Repubs as well. Their candidate, reality show dude Spencer Pratt, does not currently live in our city. After the fire last year destroyed his house in Pacific Palisades (a neighborhood in the city of L.A.) he moved into a house his father owns in Carpinteria. Carpinteria is a beach town that is in Santa Barbara County, almost 100 miles from the nearest part of the City of Angels. While it is tragic for all the people who lost their homes in the fires, you still have to live in L.A. to run for Mayor of Los Angeles. Not that Pratt was going to win, but the level of arrogance and incompetence is amazing.
So there is some good news in these crazy times...
Humiliating for a sitting governor, but she's running an awful campaign and deserves it. At this point, she's probably only staying in the race in the hope that Platner's campaign will fall apart, but that clearly would have happened by now if it was going to.
In related news, Platner has started pivoting to the general election vs. Collins.
In this environment, I doubt it, and not sure why you think she's been a poor governor. Regardless, it's clear Platner is going to be the nominee, so it's time for all of us to get on board.
So have Maine voters (a la the general election) just not heard of Platner's issues and he'll come crashing down in the fall, or do these types of scandals have no impact in a post-Trump world?
NY-Comptroller: Additional interesting piece of information I found with New York's filing deadline - former Kansas state Rep. Raj Goyle, who lost a high-profile race for Congress to future Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2010, is challenging longtime Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary.
He launched some months ago, I think his main thing is that DiNapoli is unwilling to use the full powers of the office to help NYers while budgets are so tight in such a dire state due to federal policy choices (ie: against utility companies). Plus some stuff about pensions that I know nothing about.
And that DiNapoli has just been there too long and the office needs to change. He's been in office since Feb 2007, one of the longest statewide elected officials in the country. The only ones longer are Bill Galvin (MA SOS since 1995), Elaine Marshall (NC SOS since 1997), Steve Troxler (NC Ag Commissioner since 2005) and Mark Hammond (SC SOS since 2003) and some random multi-member board commissioners with individual statewide mandates like John Waihee (HI Native Trustee Board since 2000), Katherine White (MI UMich Regents Board since 1999), Gary Hanson (SD Utilities Commission since 2003), Simon Sanchez (GU Utilities Commission since 2003) and Maria Gutierrez (GU Education Board since 2007). Not counting elected courts.
What alienalias said, that DiNapoli apparently isn't using his job to the fullest extent to help New Yorkers. Kind of like the national Democrats right now.
I'd like to know more about what he's not doing and could do. My impression is that he's been popular and effective and will probably win easily again, but I'm always happy to consider new information and arguments.
What would you like national Dems, who are in the minority of both houses (and, frankly, on the Supreme Court) and don't hold the presidency, to do differently to "help Americans"?
Minnesota State Sen. Erin Maye Quade seems to believe that Trump may order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran as soon as tonight, based on her interpretation of an unhinged Truth Social post by Trump:
I sincerely hope that doesn't come to pass. I remember back in 2016 when the now-deceased basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed Trump and boasted about how Trump was willing to use nuclear weapons in war.
I doubt it, personally, but he seems more unhinged than usual the last month after Iran didn’t roll over and he lost the tariff case. He can feel his position weakening and he’s lashing out, because his narcissism can’t handle that.
EMQ would probably be the most progressive member of the Senate if appointed, so I would think that she would be an amazing U.S. Senator if elected.
However, I doubt that Klobuchar would appoint EMQ or someone who is similarly progressive. I would guess that Klobuchar would appoint someone from the moderate faction of the DFL like herself, but I could be very wrong about that.
I disagree with Klobuchar being considered a moderate. She is definitely a liberal, just not DSA. The DSA remains a small fraction of the party, so defining Klobuchar / any non-DSA candisate is a "moderate" would mean 90% of Democrats as moderates, and that's simply not accurate.
That being said, Maye Quade is not at the top of the list for Klobuchar to appoint / run as LG. My eyes are firmly on former DFL Senate Leader Melissa Lopez Franzen as a top-tier contender for one of those two positions. She is young st 45, and hasn't announced any election plans since she quietly stepped out of the Flannagan-Craig for Tina Smith's Senate seat a few months ago.
In the United States, she's a liberal. You could argue that most people like Klobuchar could be considered moderate or even conservative in the broader international political sense.
And not all progressive Democrats are affiliated with the DSA.
Overton windows are unique to each country. In some parts of the world Trumpism would be considered moderate. We dont live in those places, nor does our country have the same political dividing lines as say Pakistan, Yemen, or Norway or New Zealand
Klobuchar is a liberal in the US, where she serves as a Senator
Can you name a democracy where Trumpism would be considered moderate? I don't think pointing to places like Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion.
She backed Biden over Bernie or Warren. She is a mainstream Dem.
There are not too many Dem Senators I'd call progressive. Bernie is the only Senator who is a CPC member.
But I'd call Warren, Merkley, and Markey good progressives easily. Van Hollen, Blunt Rochester, Booker, Tina Smith (sadly retiring), and Padilla in the ballpark.
But the center of then Dem party has moved left. Too little and too late to stop Trump from winning twice.
I wouldn't read too much into Bernie being the only CPC member in the Senate; Senators don't really join the ideological caucuses. There are no Senators in the New Democrat Coalition or Blue Dogs.
On some economic issues, sure, but people tend to look past the fact that in the grand scheme of things, the Democratic Party is very socially progressive.
Apart from a little bit of lingering racism (i.e. Biden) and throwing transgender people under the bus (i.e. Newsom, Moulton), I would tend to agree. Would be nice if they championed social rights more than other things (along with human rights in general).
Eh. I think Klobuchar is pretty much in the middle of the current caucus. She didn't vote to end the shutdown in late 2025, though she may have voted for the debt limit bill the summer before?
I don't think it's irresponsible. Trump is losing his mind and right now, people are more upset about gas prices rising than the fact that we're committing war crimes in Iran. It's not likely Trump will drop a nuclear weapon, but the fact that there's even a chance that he could is terrifying. People need to wake up to this reality, and so while the post is speculative, it's not out of line.
The vibe I got from EMQ's statement is that she was voicing a rational fear that a lot of people have about Trump and not offering hard political or military analysis.
Could also be about the power plant strikes he threatened. Turning it into a Syria-like failed state could be the result of these strikes, which is a horiffic outcome but it's not nukes.
That does sound more likely. I also suspect that if a nuclear option were truly being considered, we would have heard about it by now via news headlines like “Trump Admin Reportedly Considering Nuclear Option” or something like that. I do not believe an option that extreme would have been planned without someone along the way leaking it, particularly given the scope of what could happen. Or maybe I’m naive and too hopeful. I don’t know.
I fear Vance actually buys into what the administration is selling, while Trump kind of just goes with it and doesn't actually believe in anything except himself.
Even if Vance pivoted back to the guy he was in 2016, Trump would still pull his strings from his social media account. Trump would rally the MAGA troops to make Vance's life miserable if he did anything that he didn't agree with. Vance would surrender to Trump's online whims to appease the MAGA base. The result: as long as Trump is alive, he will call the shots of whoever Republican succeeds him.
Owens was a Sanders/Trump 2016 voter, IIRC, whereas the other three are longtime hard-right extremists who never had a history of voicing opposition against the far-right until very recently.
Owens if I'm not mistaken was very anti-Sanders from the beginning. She referred to him back in 2020 as a racist along with him and Lyndon Johnson doing nothing for the black community. Quite honestly, Owens pulls so much shit out of her ass I don't think she's able to show she's got real convictions or gives a damn about anything.
Tucker Carlson on the other hand actually wants to have intellectual conversations even if he's full of himself a lot.
Thank God that Trump endorsed in the Republican primary for governor so the danger of Democrats splitting the vote among themselves that would lead to 2 GOP candidates on the general election ballot for governor is lessened. It is crucial that the top 2 nominating election system be changed to a system much like other states have. Sad that the bottom dwellers in the Democratic contest did not use their power to call it quits and endorse one of the top 3. Personally I would love to see the transphobic attacks and the stealing of ballots by the sheriff blow up non his face. Hopefully the voters can dump his butt next time he stands for election.
In addition to Gunn running for MS gov, current SOS Michael Watson will run for the open LG seat (incumbent Del Hosemann is term limited and will probably also run for gov; Watson is not term limited as SOS, only the top two of the ticket have them).
Another Republican with another warning on Hispanic/Latino voters abandoning the GOP. These voters aren’t back to being Democrats, but they are back to voting for them.
“ President Trump stands with a sixty-three percent (63%) approval rating and thirty-five percent (35%) disapproval rating among Republican primary voters in the district.”
Probably a smart bet. There’s likely a ton of partisan Democrats who registered as Republicans to choose the least worse candidate in primaries without ever having the chance of electing a Democrat. Now that the 1st Democrat will be elected in the state since 2018, a lot of our party supporters will be switching to the party they vote for in general elections in order to decide which flavour of Democrat they want in office.
Yeah, not a dummymander since the map as drawn would hold more often than not and still have more Republican than Dem seats even if Davis and Ager win this year.
Isn’t the definition of a dummymander spreading the incumbent parties voters too thinly in a redraw to survive an election? It doesn’t really matter what the election cycle should be or is expected to be, what matters is the actual end results. So imo if Democrats win more than Davis’ seat and some of the R+7/8 seats fall, that means it was a dummymander even if in every other election year that map would likely hold solid for the GOP.
Davis surviving certainly is possible, as is Dems winning NC-11.
But if Trump and Republicans' popularity falls further, the state could go full dummymander. Under the new lines, the most conservative congressional district in NC voted for Trump by only a 19.4% margin (NC-08). A number of districts are around Trump +15. In 2020, Cooper's worst district (also NC-08) was a loss by only around 12. In 2024, Stein actually won all of them except NC-08 (which he barely lost).
If things get worse for Republicans, some of these GOP-held districts besides NC-11 would end up within reach of Democratic candidates too. A total wipeout isn't off the table.
The closest thing he has done to being considered "notable" is holding Rep. Yvette Clarke to a surprisingly close 53-47 margin back in 2018. I mentioned another candidate, Raj Goyle, above, while former Eliot Spitzer aide David Warshaw is also running.
I also got this, which is part of an email from Bernie Sanders:
"One thing we can all do today -- is support candidates all over this country who have the guts not only to stand up to Trumpism, but to take on the monied interests and fight for a working class that has been ignored for far too long.
I am supporting a number of candidates who will do just that, but they need our help if they are going to win in their Democratic primaries and in November. Let me introduce you to them.
Brian Poindexter is an ironworker from Ohio who has spent his life fighting for working people -- as a union organizer, a city council member, and a coach in his community. He started working at 15 and knows firsthand what it's like when the deck is stacked against you.
Claire Valdez is a union organizer from New York City who worked minimum-wage fast food jobs and understands firsthand how this economy fails working people. Claire has the guts to take on the oligarchy and fight for unions, Medicare for All, and affordable housing.
Randy Villegas is an educator and small business owner from a working class family in California who understands the struggles that so many millions of Americans are facing everyday. He is rejecting corporate PAC money because he understands the outsized influence that big corporations have on our political process and that we need to return the power to the people.
Sam Forstag is a smokejumper from Montana who jumps out of planes to fight fires, a union leader who’s been on the front lines of fighting attacks on public servants, and an advocate with years of policy experience fighting for public services and civil liberties in Montana."
Unfortunately, Poindexter seems to be the only one on track to win the primary. Valdez is the underdog in a close race against Antonio Reynoso, Villegas looks like he'll lose to state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains and Rep. David Valadao, and a poll just came out with Sam Forstag in 3rd place in his primary, behind Russ Cleveland and Ryan Busse.
Sanders often endorses candidates who lose, because socialism is still a minority opinion in the Democratic Party. I think that's ok, as long as there are no adverse consequences from any of his endorsements.
There is some risk in the time spent on losing candidates: they can sap time, money, and other resources away from candidates who are more likely to win. I don't have a great mental map of house districts so I don't know if that could apply here. I assume no, but I do not know.
In a general sense it can be an issue. If Sanders were to endorse a candidate running for e.g. WY-AL and broadcast that endorsement, it would probably be a net loss for his goals.
I agree that he should be somewhat strategic, but in general, it should usually be fine for him to express his views on which primary candidates to support.
The only one of those that is potentially harmful is up against Valadeo. That is a conservative district downballot, with an incumbent who is actually very savvy.
Warren made up a story during the 2020 primary that Sanders told her a woman would never beat Trump, and confronted him about it at a debate. It was insensitive of me to refer to her as Pocahontas, I suppose. Also, I'm not sure this is explicitly a Democratic site, more so Democrats just comment here. It's not often I see much ideology present in the Digests.
It's a racist name for her. I don't think we know what people said behind closed doors, and if Bernie said that women wouldn't beat Trump, he was unfortunately right.
The Maine Supreme Court issued a unanimous advisory opinion Monday saying that general elections for governor and the legislature can’t be decided using ranked-choice voting.
While the opinion is not legally binding, Democrats in the state legislature had held off on sending a bill to Democratic Gov. Janet Mills explicitly allowing RCV to be used in general elections for state level offices until the justices said whether they believed the state constitution allows it.
The unfavorable ruling, though, means that this legislation, known as LD 1666, won’t be implemented, and the status quo that’s left the state with two different election systems since the 2018 elections will remain in place.
Oh look the maine ssc stealing the senate seat for learned his lesson again.
Why don't the dems just ignore the ssc and implement the bill anyway.
It's not the current Supreme Court's fault that the constitution is written that way; while I wish they came to the same reasoning as Alaska, their reading of the constitution is perfectly rational. As to your "Why don't the dems just ignore the ssc and implement the bill anyway" point....do you believe in constitutional democracy?
Final predictions for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
The political environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans in the past year, and Taylor's large financial advantage indicates she'll probably outperform Crawford last year. But Wisconsin hardly ever has landslide statewide elections, and Republican die-hards are going to turn out no matter what. I'm going with a 56-44 Taylor victory.
I’m going optimistic and so I’m going to say 58-42
I think it'll probably be an identical 55-45 win akin to Crawford. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was larger or smaller than that.
So you are saying that the dem will win but not by what margin.
I’ll say 53-47
57 - 43 (although it’s too bad Elon didn’t show up with that cheesehead so he could piss off even more voters)
My guess is a similar or slightly larger margin than the usual, but with lower overall turnout. If turnout is somehow equal to or larger than last year's turnout after all of the Elon-inspired publicity it got, I'd be shocked.
54-46 win for "Fearless" Chris Taylor!
59-41 Taylor. She keeps Crawford’s counties but flips Ozaukee, Grant, Lafayette, Dunn, and Pierce.
EYES ON HUNGARY – echoes of TRUMP!
Hungary holds parliamentary election this upcoming Sunday, 12 April. The parallels between the Hungary and the USA are uncanny. No wonder! Trump’s key MAGA people, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, have been working closely with Viktor Orbán’s for many years to engineer an autocratic takeover, to engineer society, and to engineer elections.
That’s why it should come as no surprise that JD Vance is making a special trip to Hungary to boost Orbán’s election chances.
If you care about America’s November Midterm Elections, Joyce Vance’s (no relation to JD!) interview with Prof. Kim Scheppele about Hungary’s upcoming elections is not to be missed. Why? Because Trump yearns to imitate Orbán’s power grab. The information revealed in this interview is stunning and deeply unsettling.
https://joycevance.substack.com/p/understanding-hungarys-upcoming-election
“Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a 20-point lead in the polls – and yet we don’t know whether he can win because of the way Viktor Orbán has engineered the structure of the election itself.”
– Prof. Kim Scheppele
A stunning factoid about Hungary: “After Viktor Orbán first came to power in 2010, he gerrymandered the whole country to the point that in the 2014 election, he won 45 % of the vote – but 91 % of the single-member districts.”
As I've said, a sitting vice-president or president actively campaigning for a candidate in a foreign election is unprecedented. Yet, don't look for the media or the Democratic leadership in congress to highlight this fact.
Don't think anyone is looking to Dem leadership in Congress on this (or much else)
Radio silence on so many things... its extremely frustrating.
Schumer actually called Trump a madman today. I hear they hold a mirror up to Hakeem Jeffries’ mouth once a day to make sure he’s still breathing.
I watched it yesterday. Anyone who loves democracy, at home or abroad, needs to watch and learn from it.
Eh, that "stunning factoid" is a little bit misleading, because the second-place party in 2014 received only 27% of the vote. So Fidesz still won the popular vote by an 18% margin.
The discrepancy won't be so big this time because this election is basically just a two-way election - Fidesz or TISZA.
Incorrect - there was 55% against him.
No Kildere is correct, that's how FPTP voting works. It doesn't matter if there's 55% voting against you if they're split between 4 parties.
Not in a true parliamentary system where parties should get members consistent with their percentage of votes. It is not the US/UK system of a winner by district.
Hungary isn't a true parliamentary system. A majority of seats are allocated by FPTP contests. Only 93 of the 199 total seats are allocated by proportional representation.
It is important to note that unlike most countries with Mixed Member Parliment (like Germany and New Zealand) where the at large seats are used to equalize the total number of seafs match the popular vote. If Hungary was like that Orban's party would not gotten any at large list seats because they won more single member districts that their share of the popular would have dictated. But instead if you get 45% of the party list vote you get 45% of the at large seats no matter if you won all the single member districts or none. In countries that operate similar to Hungary (like Japan and Russia) it heavily favors the big dominant party (the LDP and United Russia).
I think the point was because of gerrymandering he received 45% of the vote but over 90% of the seats.
It doesn't really say much one way or another without more information about how the votes are distributed in Hungary. If Fidesz supporters are spread fairly evenly throughout the country you could get a result like that without gerrymandering. Massachusetts is a good example of that. The districts are lightly gerrymandered, but an ungerrymandered map would also be 9-0 in most elections, since there is no region where Republican strength is sufficiently concentrated. Likewise the overwhelming Dem supermajorities in the legislature are unlikely to change much regardless of the map.
Democrats get 45% of the statewide vote in Massachusetts?
That's not what Marcus said.
A 60-40 victory (Warren in the most recent senate race) is not that different from a 45-27 victory.
Is JD Vance popular enough even with Fidesz supporters to make a difference? European far right parties have been ditching Trump left and right
For a good look at polls, projected seats and the positions of the parties, this site seems pretty good: https://politpro.eu/en/hungary
That was super useful! Looks like if nothing else Fidesz will be very hard pressed to keep their supermajorities on which so much of what they do relies upon.
Fun from California:
Mad King Donald has proven his strategic incompetence once again. The only way for the CAGOP to win CA-Gov would be for the Repubs to run even with each other and grab the two spots in the runoff against a divided Democratic field of candidates. Instead Tr*mp is making it so that Hilton, his endorsee, will run ahead of Sheriff Ballot-thief from Riverside County. I never thought there would be a Repub top two, but now that seems impossible. Thanks, Tr*mp!
The Los Angeles mayoral race has a problem for the Repubs as well. Their candidate, reality show dude Spencer Pratt, does not currently live in our city. After the fire last year destroyed his house in Pacific Palisades (a neighborhood in the city of L.A.) he moved into a house his father owns in Carpinteria. Carpinteria is a beach town that is in Santa Barbara County, almost 100 miles from the nearest part of the City of Angels. While it is tragic for all the people who lost their homes in the fires, you still have to live in L.A. to run for Mayor of Los Angeles. Not that Pratt was going to win, but the level of arrogance and incompetence is amazing.
So there is some good news in these crazy times...
Maine People's Resource Center poll:
Platner 61
Mills 28
Platner 48
Collins 39
Collins 45
Mills 42
https://static.notus.org/0b/9f/97515a054eaa89882d18ab798388/poll.pdf
Topline numbers only.
Humiliating for a sitting governor, but she's running an awful campaign and deserves it. At this point, she's probably only staying in the race in the hope that Platner's campaign will fall apart, but that clearly would have happened by now if it was going to.
In related news, Platner has started pivoting to the general election vs. Collins.
This race is wild. Mills is running a horrible campaign.
She has been s poor Guv and is low energy.
She'd have lost to Collins.
In this environment, I doubt it, and not sure why you think she's been a poor governor. Regardless, it's clear Platner is going to be the nominee, so it's time for all of us to get on board.
No, I think some of us can continue to resent his existence, even if I'd prefer him over Collins.
So have Maine voters (a la the general election) just not heard of Platner's issues and he'll come crashing down in the fall, or do these types of scandals have no impact in a post-Trump world?
It is a tat from 20 years ago. It just isn't that big of a deal, IMHO.
And it looks like most Mainers agree.
Firstly, the tat is a big deal. Secondly, that is far from his only issue.
Pretty sure Mills has been slamming him for weeks and it hasn’t made a dent in his support.
That's not the point I was making. It's clear that he will survive these attacks. I was disagreeing personally with ClimateHawk's point.
https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/WhoFiled/WhoFiled
NY-Comptroller: Additional interesting piece of information I found with New York's filing deadline - former Kansas state Rep. Raj Goyle, who lost a high-profile race for Congress to future Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2010, is challenging longtime Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary.
Wow, blast from the past. Has DiNapoli done anything to merit being primaried?
Not really, and DiNapoli received the endorsement of the New York Democratic Party, so Goyle probably won't make a splash.
He launched some months ago, I think his main thing is that DiNapoli is unwilling to use the full powers of the office to help NYers while budgets are so tight in such a dire state due to federal policy choices (ie: against utility companies). Plus some stuff about pensions that I know nothing about.
And that DiNapoli has just been there too long and the office needs to change. He's been in office since Feb 2007, one of the longest statewide elected officials in the country. The only ones longer are Bill Galvin (MA SOS since 1995), Elaine Marshall (NC SOS since 1997), Steve Troxler (NC Ag Commissioner since 2005) and Mark Hammond (SC SOS since 2003) and some random multi-member board commissioners with individual statewide mandates like John Waihee (HI Native Trustee Board since 2000), Katherine White (MI UMich Regents Board since 1999), Gary Hanson (SD Utilities Commission since 2003), Simon Sanchez (GU Utilities Commission since 2003) and Maria Gutierrez (GU Education Board since 2007). Not counting elected courts.
That's kind of odd. What's his beef with DiNapoli?
What alienalias said, that DiNapoli apparently isn't using his job to the fullest extent to help New Yorkers. Kind of like the national Democrats right now.
I'd like to know more about what he's not doing and could do. My impression is that he's been popular and effective and will probably win easily again, but I'm always happy to consider new information and arguments.
What would you like national Dems, who are in the minority of both houses (and, frankly, on the Supreme Court) and don't hold the presidency, to do differently to "help Americans"?
Minnesota State Sen. Erin Maye Quade seems to believe that Trump may order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran as soon as tonight, based on her interpretation of an unhinged Truth Social post by Trump:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DW1V76yGI1k/?igsh=bzI5bnFpbml3cTU3
I sincerely hope that doesn't come to pass. I remember back in 2016 when the now-deceased basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed Trump and boasted about how Trump was willing to use nuclear weapons in war.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/621427/bobby-knight-suggests-donald-trump-have-guts-nuke-enemy
I doubt it, personally, but he seems more unhinged than usual the last month after Iran didn’t roll over and he lost the tariff case. He can feel his position weakening and he’s lashing out, because his narcissism can’t handle that.
He has never been more dangerous nor more weak
On a slightly unrelated note - do you think Quade could make a good Senator to succeed Klobuchar, or possibly even Klobuchar's lieutenant?
EMQ would probably be the most progressive member of the Senate if appointed, so I would think that she would be an amazing U.S. Senator if elected.
However, I doubt that Klobuchar would appoint EMQ or someone who is similarly progressive. I would guess that Klobuchar would appoint someone from the moderate faction of the DFL like herself, but I could be very wrong about that.
I could also see Erin Murphy, Quade's running mate when the former ran for governor in 2018, be appointed.
At 66, not sure Murphy is the most likely choice.
Same age as Klobuchar. Could be more of a placeholder.
Yes well Klobuchar is a three-plus-term incumbent =P idk if Murphy would want to be a placeholder since she's currently Senate Majority Leader.
I disagree with Klobuchar being considered a moderate. She is definitely a liberal, just not DSA. The DSA remains a small fraction of the party, so defining Klobuchar / any non-DSA candisate is a "moderate" would mean 90% of Democrats as moderates, and that's simply not accurate.
That being said, Maye Quade is not at the top of the list for Klobuchar to appoint / run as LG. My eyes are firmly on former DFL Senate Leader Melissa Lopez Franzen as a top-tier contender for one of those two positions. She is young st 45, and hasn't announced any election plans since she quietly stepped out of the Flannagan-Craig for Tina Smith's Senate seat a few months ago.
In the United States, she's a liberal. You could argue that most people like Klobuchar could be considered moderate or even conservative in the broader international political sense.
And not all progressive Democrats are affiliated with the DSA.
Overton windows are unique to each country. In some parts of the world Trumpism would be considered moderate. We dont live in those places, nor does our country have the same political dividing lines as say Pakistan, Yemen, or Norway or New Zealand
Klobuchar is a liberal in the US, where she serves as a Senator
Can you name a democracy where Trumpism would be considered moderate? I don't think pointing to places like Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion.
She backed Biden over Bernie or Warren. She is a mainstream Dem.
There are not too many Dem Senators I'd call progressive. Bernie is the only Senator who is a CPC member.
But I'd call Warren, Merkley, and Markey good progressives easily. Van Hollen, Blunt Rochester, Booker, Tina Smith (sadly retiring), and Padilla in the ballpark.
But the center of then Dem party has moved left. Too little and too late to stop Trump from winning twice.
I wouldn't read too much into Bernie being the only CPC member in the Senate; Senators don't really join the ideological caucuses. There are no Senators in the New Democrat Coalition or Blue Dogs.
On some economic issues, sure, but people tend to look past the fact that in the grand scheme of things, the Democratic Party is very socially progressive.
Apart from a little bit of lingering racism (i.e. Biden) and throwing transgender people under the bus (i.e. Newsom, Moulton), I would tend to agree. Would be nice if they championed social rights more than other things (along with human rights in general).
Semantics aside, Klobuchar is right of the center of the Democratic Senate caucus, which is right of the center of the Democratic electorate.
Eh. I think Klobuchar is pretty much in the middle of the current caucus. She didn't vote to end the shutdown in late 2025, though she may have voted for the debt limit bill the summer before?
Right/center. Either way, she's out of touch with the base.
I don't think Quade has any special insight into Trump's mind, that's just irresponsible.
She's not the only one who's raised that possibility. What's irresponsible is the original posting.
Both can be irresponsible.
I don't think it's irresponsible. Trump is losing his mind and right now, people are more upset about gas prices rising than the fact that we're committing war crimes in Iran. It's not likely Trump will drop a nuclear weapon, but the fact that there's even a chance that he could is terrifying. People need to wake up to this reality, and so while the post is speculative, it's not out of line.
Yeah I didn't see the Trump post about "a civilization ending tonight", which is unhinged.
To be fair, that can be interpreted as his threats to bomb power plants, which is still horrific but not as bad as nukes.
The vibe I got from EMQ's statement is that she was voicing a rational fear that a lot of people have about Trump and not offering hard political or military analysis.
"End of civilization" could certainly lead to that interpretation.
Could also be about the power plant strikes he threatened. Turning it into a Syria-like failed state could be the result of these strikes, which is a horiffic outcome but it's not nukes.
This is terrifying. I sincerely hope this doesn’t lead to some truly horrific fate like nuclear winter down the line.
I do not believe he will use a nuke or that nuclear winter will happen any time soon. But I do believe he'll commit horrific war crimes.
That does sound more likely. I also suspect that if a nuclear option were truly being considered, we would have heard about it by now via news headlines like “Trump Admin Reportedly Considering Nuclear Option” or something like that. I do not believe an option that extreme would have been planned without someone along the way leaking it, particularly given the scope of what could happen. Or maybe I’m naive and too hopeful. I don’t know.
Two week ceasefire has just been announced between the U.S. and Iran.
For now, the nuclear weapons threat is over.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmnp06jg2000i356r5p5o2990
The following have joined the calls to remove Trump from office
Candace Owens
Alex Jones
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Tucker Carlson
Wow. All people who’ve jumped ship earlier but, you know, not exactly liberals
I feel like a lot of those people's problems with Trump is that he's collaborating with Israel on this Iran war, and they're all antisemitic.
So particularly smelly enemies of our enemy.
I'm not convinced that Vance would do anything differently if he was President.
I fear Vance actually buys into what the administration is selling, while Trump kind of just goes with it and doesn't actually believe in anything except himself.
Probably not, but I’d be a lot less concerned about him accidentally starting a nuclear war.
Not attack Iran without a plan?
Even if Vance pivoted back to the guy he was in 2016, Trump would still pull his strings from his social media account. Trump would rally the MAGA troops to make Vance's life miserable if he did anything that he didn't agree with. Vance would surrender to Trump's online whims to appease the MAGA base. The result: as long as Trump is alive, he will call the shots of whoever Republican succeeds him.
Owens was a Sanders/Trump 2016 voter, IIRC, whereas the other three are longtime hard-right extremists who never had a history of voicing opposition against the far-right until very recently.
Owens if I'm not mistaken was very anti-Sanders from the beginning. She referred to him back in 2020 as a racist along with him and Lyndon Johnson doing nothing for the black community. Quite honestly, Owens pulls so much shit out of her ass I don't think she's able to show she's got real convictions or gives a damn about anything.
Tucker Carlson on the other hand actually wants to have intellectual conversations even if he's full of himself a lot.
Thank God that Trump endorsed in the Republican primary for governor so the danger of Democrats splitting the vote among themselves that would lead to 2 GOP candidates on the general election ballot for governor is lessened. It is crucial that the top 2 nominating election system be changed to a system much like other states have. Sad that the bottom dwellers in the Democratic contest did not use their power to call it quits and endorse one of the top 3. Personally I would love to see the transphobic attacks and the stealing of ballots by the sheriff blow up non his face. Hopefully the voters can dump his butt next time he stands for election.
I would like to see Trump endorse as many incumbent House Republicans in CA for re-election so Democrats can maximize turnout in unseating them.
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/04/mayor-mamdani-fills-100-000th-pothole-in-first-100-days
Yesterday, New York mayor Zohran Mamdani filled the 100,000th pothole since he took office in January - the fastest pace since Bill de Blasio in 2015.
In addition to Gunn running for MS gov, current SOS Michael Watson will run for the open LG seat (incumbent Del Hosemann is term limited and will probably also run for gov; Watson is not term limited as SOS, only the top two of the ticket have them).
https://www.supertalk.fm/thats-been-my-trajectory-michael-watson-confirms-run-for-mississippi-lieutenant-governor/
Not sure if Hosemann will run for governor. He would be 80 (!!) if elected and is already in poor health.
Another Republican with another warning on Hispanic/Latino voters abandoning the GOP. These voters aren’t back to being Democrats, but they are back to voting for them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/01/midterms-trump-hispanic-voters-election/
https://archive.ph/f3o1d
Utah may hold some surprising results for Democrats in the legislature and Congress this fall.
https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2041518435994050811
“ President Trump stands with a sixty-three percent (63%) approval rating and thirty-five percent (35%) disapproval rating among Republican primary voters in the district.”
Just Utah things? Or a larger indicator? “
Along those lines. UT would be a smart red reach state for Democrats to start trying to flip.
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2041552534972604616
New - Utah voter registration update
🔵 Democrats: +4594
🔴 Republicans: -810
I wonder if the UT-01 primary is driving up Dem registrations...or the excitement of being able to vote in November for a Dem who will actually win.
Probably a smart bet. There’s likely a ton of partisan Democrats who registered as Republicans to choose the least worse candidate in primaries without ever having the chance of electing a Democrat. Now that the 1st Democrat will be elected in the state since 2018, a lot of our party supporters will be switching to the party they vote for in general elections in order to decide which flavour of Democrat they want in office.
Wow.
Is this statewide or just UT-1?
It’s a poll of Republican primary voters in the district, so just UT-01.
Q1 fundraising: OH-Sen, MI-Sen, TX-Sen Brown almost certainly outraised Husted, again.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2041475874009043365
“ Politico: Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown announces his campaign raised over $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2026.
Politico: Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) raised almost $9 million in the first quarter of 2026
Including $2.4 million after the March 3 Texas primary
Politico: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed announces his campaign raised over $2.25 million in the first quarter of 2026. “
Link to article: https://politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/04/07/the-only-question-that-matters-today-00861285
What will Cornyn do with all that money when he loses?
Buy a nice ranch in Austin, a mansion in Preston Hollow, or maybe a condo in Houston.
NC: Starting to think about the unthinkable. Davis surviving and the new map redraw becoming a dummymander. Could it happen with these numbers?
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/2041547677582676410
Trump's dragging down the GOP in North Carolina, a state he's won 3 times.
Trump's net approval is down to -15 pts on average & down to -42 (!) pts with independents.
This helps to make Dem Roy Cooper a favorite in the Senate race there, as his chances have skyrocketed.
Probably not a dummymander, just a gerrymander defeated this time by a wave.
Yeah, not a dummymander since the map as drawn would hold more often than not and still have more Republican than Dem seats even if Davis and Ager win this year.
Isn’t the definition of a dummymander spreading the incumbent parties voters too thinly in a redraw to survive an election? It doesn’t really matter what the election cycle should be or is expected to be, what matters is the actual end results. So imo if Democrats win more than Davis’ seat and some of the R+7/8 seats fall, that means it was a dummymander even if in every other election year that map would likely hold solid for the GOP.
No. A gerrymander is expected to work in an average or somewhat unfavorable year. Some are not strong enough to withstand waves.
Davis surviving certainly is possible, as is Dems winning NC-11.
But if Trump and Republicans' popularity falls further, the state could go full dummymander. Under the new lines, the most conservative congressional district in NC voted for Trump by only a 19.4% margin (NC-08). A number of districts are around Trump +15. In 2020, Cooper's worst district (also NC-08) was a loss by only around 12. In 2024, Stein actually won all of them except NC-08 (which he barely lost).
If things get worse for Republicans, some of these GOP-held districts besides NC-11 would end up within reach of Democratic candidates too. A total wipeout isn't off the table.
From a text to me:
"Adem Bunkeddeko is a Democrat running for NYS Comptroller".
The closest thing he has done to being considered "notable" is holding Rep. Yvette Clarke to a surprisingly close 53-47 margin back in 2018. I mentioned another candidate, Raj Goyle, above, while former Eliot Spitzer aide David Warshaw is also running.
Catchy last name! Rhymes with Gecko.
I also got this, which is part of an email from Bernie Sanders:
"One thing we can all do today -- is support candidates all over this country who have the guts not only to stand up to Trumpism, but to take on the monied interests and fight for a working class that has been ignored for far too long.
I am supporting a number of candidates who will do just that, but they need our help if they are going to win in their Democratic primaries and in November. Let me introduce you to them.
Brian Poindexter is an ironworker from Ohio who has spent his life fighting for working people -- as a union organizer, a city council member, and a coach in his community. He started working at 15 and knows firsthand what it's like when the deck is stacked against you.
Claire Valdez is a union organizer from New York City who worked minimum-wage fast food jobs and understands firsthand how this economy fails working people. Claire has the guts to take on the oligarchy and fight for unions, Medicare for All, and affordable housing.
Randy Villegas is an educator and small business owner from a working class family in California who understands the struggles that so many millions of Americans are facing everyday. He is rejecting corporate PAC money because he understands the outsized influence that big corporations have on our political process and that we need to return the power to the people.
Sam Forstag is a smokejumper from Montana who jumps out of planes to fight fires, a union leader who’s been on the front lines of fighting attacks on public servants, and an advocate with years of policy experience fighting for public services and civil liberties in Montana."
Unfortunately, Poindexter seems to be the only one on track to win the primary. Valdez is the underdog in a close race against Antonio Reynoso, Villegas looks like he'll lose to state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains and Rep. David Valadao, and a poll just came out with Sam Forstag in 3rd place in his primary, behind Russ Cleveland and Ryan Busse.
Sanders often endorses candidates who lose, because socialism is still a minority opinion in the Democratic Party. I think that's ok, as long as there are no adverse consequences from any of his endorsements.
There is some risk in the time spent on losing candidates: they can sap time, money, and other resources away from candidates who are more likely to win. I don't have a great mental map of house districts so I don't know if that could apply here. I assume no, but I do not know.
In a general sense it can be an issue. If Sanders were to endorse a candidate running for e.g. WY-AL and broadcast that endorsement, it would probably be a net loss for his goals.
I agree that he should be somewhat strategic, but in general, it should usually be fine for him to express his views on which primary candidates to support.
The only one of those that is potentially harmful is up against Valadeo. That is a conservative district downballot, with an incumbent who is actually very savvy.
I wish they could clone Bernie.
I could think of way worse people to clone, but maybe we should have more Elizabeth Warrens, too.
Ah yes, Pocahontas, who thinks Sanders is sexist. She's good but I don't know if I would clone her.
I never thought I'd see someone who's not a troll call Warren "Pocahontas" on a Democratic website. In what context did she call him sexist?
Warren made up a story during the 2020 primary that Sanders told her a woman would never beat Trump, and confronted him about it at a debate. It was insensitive of me to refer to her as Pocahontas, I suppose. Also, I'm not sure this is explicitly a Democratic site, more so Democrats just comment here. It's not often I see much ideology present in the Digests.
SSP and DKE were all about more and better Democrats. I have to imagine this is a Democratic site.
It's a racist name for her. I don't think we know what people said behind closed doors, and if Bernie said that women wouldn't beat Trump, he was unfortunately right.
Wow. That is a take. I don't think I've heard an informed progressive with an anti-Warren viewpoint like that, outside of some strange online places
I'm not anti-Warren. I'm glad she apologized.
Using an offensive Trump nickname to attack a democrat, yikes...
Was not my intention in the slightest, but I can see it came off that way.
What, if not the obvious, was the intent? I don't see how it could be said unaware of the result or what softer intention is out there.
I'm honestly just... confused and disappointed to see someone here do this.
The Maine Supreme Court issued a unanimous advisory opinion Monday saying that general elections for governor and the legislature can’t be decided using ranked-choice voting.
While the opinion is not legally binding, Democrats in the state legislature had held off on sending a bill to Democratic Gov. Janet Mills explicitly allowing RCV to be used in general elections for state level offices until the justices said whether they believed the state constitution allows it.
The unfavorable ruling, though, means that this legislation, known as LD 1666, won’t be implemented, and the status quo that’s left the state with two different election systems since the 2018 elections will remain in place.
Oh look the maine ssc stealing the senate seat for learned his lesson again.
Why don't the dems just ignore the ssc and implement the bill anyway.
It's not the current Supreme Court's fault that the constitution is written that way; while I wish they came to the same reasoning as Alaska, their reading of the constitution is perfectly rational. As to your "Why don't the dems just ignore the ssc and implement the bill anyway" point....do you believe in constitutional democracy?