As an expat living in the UK, I'm totally not in Thanksgiving mode. We are doing something on Sunday (as we'll have time to make the meal), but definitely not tomorrow. It didn't even occur to me that this was the reason for the quietness until you posted...
How 'bout that one-seat GOP majority in the House for the next few months?! Even when Congress is fully staffed, the pressure to toe the party line will be intense. There won't be much room for the alleged moderates in swing seats to vote against the horrors they have promised are coming. Fitzpatrick, Valadao, Bacon...they're all going to have to vote for all of it and deal with the public response.
Tbf, while she would have appointed plenty of judges to the lower courts, with a Republican Senate it’s hard to imagine any Supreme Court picks of hers would have been confirmed. And I doubt anyone other than maybe Sotomayor would have retired from the court if she was elected, so there wouldn’t have been any balance-changing appointments unless someone died.
We do, however, face a high chance of locking us out of the court for decades. Alito (74) and Thomas (76) are old enough that they should be considering retirement. If they do retire, we have effectively zero chance of seeing a court majority through simple replacements.
Depends on what the legislation is and how extreme it is. They remember what happened in 2018 in places like New Jersey. They’ll have to weigh and calibrate the risks of a primary challenge versus the likelihood of defeat in the general.
We may also see a spike in threats toward members who don't fall in line. That already happens today...imagine how worse it could get where there are just one or two House members standing in the way of "the agenda". I think concerns about safety, primary challenges, and peer pressure are likely to outweigh any concerns for the general election. Plus we still have this myth floating around that everything they're about to do is at the request of the American people.
I wish y’all a fine Harvest-Gratitude Day and, afterwards some good Overindulgence-Recovery Days, and hopefully also a few Great-Leftovers-Mean-I-Don’t-Have-to-Cook-Again Days.
Just for conceding (?) Steel got her first winning update today. Nothing from L.A. but OC has a small batch that she won by 161 to 144 for Tran. That reduces Derek's margin to 596 votes. 613-17=596.
Democrat Mike Fahey was NOT defeated by Stothert. Mike retired undefeated. Stothert defeated the incumbent who was Dem Jim Suttle, in part by pledging to repeal a 1% restaurant tax. She never did try to repeal it, of course.
Awfully quiet today.
Probably should have gone ahead with an open thread - everyone is already in Thanksgiving mode.
As an expat living in the UK, I'm totally not in Thanksgiving mode. We are doing something on Sunday (as we'll have time to make the meal), but definitely not tomorrow. It didn't even occur to me that this was the reason for the quietness until you posted...
How 'bout that one-seat GOP majority in the House for the next few months?! Even when Congress is fully staffed, the pressure to toe the party line will be intense. There won't be much room for the alleged moderates in swing seats to vote against the horrors they have promised are coming. Fitzpatrick, Valadao, Bacon...they're all going to have to vote for all of it and deal with the public response.
Lawler will be very interesting to watch given his interest in a statewide run in NY
The house in general seems like our strongest branch these days. The nature of the Senate makes control for us very difficult there.
Yeah, it’s certainly not SCOTUS. Tragic that it won’t be President Kamala Harris making appointments to fill vacancies.
Tbf, while she would have appointed plenty of judges to the lower courts, with a Republican Senate it’s hard to imagine any Supreme Court picks of hers would have been confirmed. And I doubt anyone other than maybe Sotomayor would have retired from the court if she was elected, so there wouldn’t have been any balance-changing appointments unless someone died.
True. As you indicate, this would have required a Democratic Senate majority.
We do, however, face a high chance of locking us out of the court for decades. Alito (74) and Thomas (76) are old enough that they should be considering retirement. If they do retire, we have effectively zero chance of seeing a court majority through simple replacements.
We would need to increase the size of the court.
Yeah. The only way we're coming back from this is Court Expansion. Better start moving the Overton Window now.
Depends on what the legislation is and how extreme it is. They remember what happened in 2018 in places like New Jersey. They’ll have to weigh and calibrate the risks of a primary challenge versus the likelihood of defeat in the general.
We may also see a spike in threats toward members who don't fall in line. That already happens today...imagine how worse it could get where there are just one or two House members standing in the way of "the agenda". I think concerns about safety, primary challenges, and peer pressure are likely to outweigh any concerns for the general election. Plus we still have this myth floating around that everything they're about to do is at the request of the American people.
I wish y’all a fine Harvest-Gratitude Day and, afterwards some good Overindulgence-Recovery Days, and hopefully also a few Great-Leftovers-Mean-I-Don’t-Have-to-Cook-Again Days.
Be well!
Football! Cats! Solitude*! What's not to like?
*by choice, I am an extreme introvert and my adult kids will all be with their Mom in CO
Adam Gray now appears to be ahead of John Duarte in CA-13 by 182 votes, according to the CA secstste's office. Think it will hold?
The consensus seems to be if he’s roughly up as much as he is right now after todays drops he’d be the clear favorite going forward.
John Duarte-Adam Gray 2022 race also was very close, not called by AP until Dec. 2 or 24 days after the Nov. 8 election that year.
Last one last time. Last one this time.
CA 45: Steel concedes
https://x.com/CraigCaplan/status/1861870765097759163
AP calls race:
https://x.com/AP_Politics/status/1861878760183632154
Glad Steel conceded with grace.
So do we have 213 seats called for the Democrats now?
214
Mr Gray, do I hear 215?
Just for conceding (?) Steel got her first winning update today. Nothing from L.A. but OC has a small batch that she won by 161 to 144 for Tran. That reduces Derek's margin to 596 votes. 613-17=596.
CA-13
Adam Gray lead increases from 182 to 234.
That is a Merced County update, Gray 140-88 which increases his lead by 52 votes. 182+52=234. Let's see if any other county updates today...
Fresno update Duarte gets some 40 but not enough Grey now at 1894 vote lead. https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1861935917784543626?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg3
Sorry 194
Today's Fresno was 288 for Duarte and 248 for Gray. 234-40=194 current margin.
Last drop in CA13. San Joaquin Duarte nets 4. Not enough Gray by 190 https://x.com/djsokespeaking/status/1861951706986094889?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Happy Thanksgiving everyone .!
Democrat Mike Fahey was NOT defeated by Stothert. Mike retired undefeated. Stothert defeated the incumbent who was Dem Jim Suttle, in part by pledging to repeal a 1% restaurant tax. She never did try to repeal it, of course.