This might be a controversial take, but here are my feelings about Graham Platner's electoral chances.
I still think that, despite everything, Graham Platner is going to win this fall. And here's why.
The fact is, Graham Platner is pretty much the closest figure we have to the Democratic Donald Trump. A man who has never run for elected office before. Who has some political views that are somewhat unorthodox in his party, but which doesn't stop the party faithful from loving him anyway. Who professional moderate media people are horrified by. Who has faced scandal after scandal for a considerable amount of time, but whose polling numbers are hardly affected by it. Who projects a populist image. Who consistently attracts large crowds of supporters to his events. Who is running against a woman who is very well-known and considered by many to be unbeatable.
The same way that Trump narrowly beat Hillary in 2016, I think Platner narrowly defeats Collins.
I think he easily defeats Collins. And is going to also easily clear 50%+ in next week’s primary. The latest NYT article is almost all sourced from the right wing, Heritage Foundation operative, so I doubt his supporters will be swayed.
This feels entirely like a “look what happened before Trump won a 2nd term” level of not understanding just how much politics have changed since then. Similarly to how many people pointed out how close Democrats came in other states prior to 2016 to argue that races in 2020, 2022 and 2024 were competitive for Democrats. It’s a completely different era between the before and after.
It’s important to realize when something has radically changed among the voting electorate. Back then it was Republican voters no longer being open to voting Democratic for any reason or candidate. Now it’s Democratic voters no longer being open to voting Republican for any reason or candidate. Jay Jones wouldn’t have won before 2024. Virginia voters wouldn’t have supported a mid decade redraw eliminating GOP seats either. The evidence is piling up in race after race, result after result that something has drastically changed for Democratic voters.
I do hope if Platner wins you’ll be willing to accept him and his flaws. Just like I and most here will join you in making sure Graham Platner never runs for any election ever again, should he lose to Susan Collins. It’s put up or shut up time for Platner, he’s got his opportunity. Will he succeed like Trump did and begin to transform who Democratic voters nominate and who leads the party? Or will he lose and never be supported for elected office again? Time will tell.
I don’t think you’ll find many people here not supporting him if he remains the nominee. There’s a difference between preferring we nominate someone without all this baggage, but that ship sailed months ago.
You also see a break with R-leaning independent/squishy R voters breaking with their party in the special elections in FL and TX... R+15 districts flipping to Democrats. That throws uncertainty that R gerrymanders are going to hold if 8-10% of Republicans defect to the other party and a plurality stay home.
I dislike characterizing Collins' 2020 win as that large. There was a substantial amount of third party voting that would have decreased the margin had Collins not won on the first round. Not all of them would have ranked Gideon ahead of Collins; not all of them would have ranked else at all for that matter. But the "real" margin if they had tabulated all the ballots to simulate a final round would probably have been in the 4-6 point range.
I think people are too pessimistic, we have to remember the general election is in 5 months. It certainly won’t get better for the republicans by then, and that will indirectly benefit Platner.
I mean, I'm not thrilled about those things either.
But one thing I've long believed is that elections are not a referendum on a single candidate; they are a choice between multiple (in this case, two) candidates. The question voters have to ask themselves isn't whether Platner gives them pause, it's whether or not he's better than Susan Collins. And I have strongly disliked Susan Collins for at least 15 years.
Will Platner vote to give Democrats control of the Senate? Will he vote for all of Democrats' domestic policy priorities in the Senate? Will he vote in favor of Democratic judicial nominees, and against Republican nominees? If the answers to those questions are all yes, and as far as I can tell they are, then Platner is clearly better than Susan Collins.
Hasn't been crossed- yet. I fear that there will be a drip drip drip of negative information coming out about Platner all the way until the election and the worst stuff will come out in October.
This is what I don’t understand. Why push forward with the dark cloud of more unknown stuff hanging over him when we could wipe our hands of it? It’s too late to do that though, the time for the party to push him aside was in October 2025 and nobody really did anything.
because janet mills has less of a chance of winning that senate seat than biden did of being reelected. she is hated by the base and got to run against paul lepage in 2022, and was elected first during a trump midterm. Data center moratorium veto, alienated native voters, alienated labor, blame mills more than anyone for her lack of effort
There’s plenty of blame to go around. Bernie world is not absolved of this. They could have ditched him back in October and found another progressive who wasn’t 80 years old and didn’t have issues with labor.
Platner is far from a perfect scandal. I'm thinking that he might be immune to scandals like Trump was, given how he survived the first wave of scandals that came out in October.
I agree, but it's getting closer than I would like. Still, maybe I am one of like 3 or 4 Dems on the internet to have moderate/inconclusive feelings re Platner overall.
I'm glad I'm not a Maine voter and forced to make that decision. If I were strictly voting between Platner and Collins, I would vote for Collins. But a vote for Collins then becomes a vote for a Republican Senate that supports the most threatening and evil politician this country has known, so I would vote for Platner. How many voters don't get to that second part?
This makes voting for Becerra or Steyer, not a fan of either, much more palatable.
Rhode Island voters got to that second part in 2006. Massachusetts voters got to that second part in 2012. And those were both before the Trump era.
Back in those years, the Maine Legislature was the national capital of ticket-splitting, and it went both ways. Since the Trump era began, ticket-splitting in the Maine Legislature has drastically declined. In the ME Senate, in 2024 only three districts out of 35 elected a different-party Senator to its presidential election vote, and in all of those cases the votes for President and state Senate were both close. The state House was a similar story.
So it's less of a stretch than you seem to believe that Mainers will get to that second part.
314 Action has gotten $1 million or more from AIPAC in the years 2021-24 and acts in alignment with pro-Israel funders much of the time. Needs to be said. one link:
CA-06 lockout update: looks like some more votes from Placer county came in recently. Placer is the best county for republicans. Pan is still about 1 point or 1,000 votes outside of the top 2. According to NBC, Placer now has almost 70% in, while the two counties where Pan is currently leading, Sacramento and Yolo, have less than 50% in. Pan should pull into second when more votes in those counties are counted, assuming NBC's estimation of the vote in is close to correct.
Most of that stuff is in the past, yes? And frankly, I find the lack of transparency on the sourcing from the NYT to be borderline journalistic malpractice. And on the summary here to a much lesser extent.
I don't mean to auto- dismiss the claims on one hand, but on the ither have we learned nothing from the Franken & Biden accusations? Or that lady that Obama wrongly dismissed due to out of context quotes.
I have no doubt that Platner WAS a complete creep. And doubts about him linger. At the same time, he still looks like our best shot at 2026 is a lot different than 2020.
And how crappy was the Mills campaign not to unearth this?
That is a really good point. The Mills campaign should have been able to unearth this. Even more of a reason not to nominate her if things really hit the fan with Platner and we need to replace him.
Has Kiley changed his voting behavior, favored policies, etc. in tune with his switch from republican to independent? If not, I wouldn't call a top two with a democrat + him in it as a republican lock out. He's a de facto republican until and unless he changes ideologically.
A couple comments about the Citadel poll of SC. As y'all know by now, I'm a SC resident, and not living up to the Lurking part of my moniker atm.
All Lindsey is able to do with Lynch is drag up 40 year old drug charges and make wild claims about medical cocaine. For voters that spend more than 15 seconds thinking about it, I think that's probably not a meaningful argument. Too much grasping at straws. There are enough undecideds that Lindsey will probably win without a runoff. Lynch calling Graham a woman in his Tweet though is exactly the kind of gay-baiting I'd expect here. The lesser of two evils is a very low bar in that race.
The R gov poll suggests most people think Wilson will win, I do too. But considering how evenly spread the numbers are for the non-Wilson folks, and fewer undecideds, I think the vast majority are in the ABW camp...anybody but Wilson, so maybe he gets locked out of the runoff.
Crosstabs showed 7% of RVs in poll were 18-24 but only 1-2% of LVs for each party. To the extent that a campaign galvanize young voters, it could make a difference.
SC Republicans totally have their heads in the sand about climate change, with vast majoritites unconcerned about Hurricanes, droughts, and heat waves. We're in a massive drought now. Come on! Strong El Niño may help protect us this fall from hurricanes.
I’ve seen people on here be nervous about Abdul. Whatever you think of him in the primary, if he does end up winning, I want to emphasize that we need to be prepared to support him in the general, even if he was with Hasan Piker or whatever. Which is worse — having a Senator who was with Hasan Piker, or losing the Senate to the GOP again?
My concern isn't if he can win in 2026. It's if he can win in a non-wave year. Which he would inevitably face at some point as a senator. Maybe as early as 2032. Maybe later down the road.
But if he is the nominee, then we worry about that when the time comes for it.
Yeah, idk how big this universe is but anyone who's still in the tank for Platner as a supporter/donor logically would have to do the same for El-Sayed as nominee.
Yes, exactly. If they're willing to say people should hold their noses for Platner to flip the Senate, there is no excuse to not say the same for El-Sayed.
Tbh, this is the wrong audience to warn about needing to support him in the general. I think 99.9% of the people who regularly read/post here will support him to the hilt in the general no questions asked. The people that need to be put on a leash are the donors and James Carville types (yuck) who will give the media endless quotes about him being unelectable and subtly sabotage him. I'm pretty sure at least the major party organizations won't throw away a must-win race, but you never know.
I do agree. Admittedly I’m a little nervous that Schumer, et al, will be hesitant to support a potential Abdul candidacy. Then again, they backed Platner when Mills dropped out, so who knows.
The issue is why are we nominating bad candidates? I’d prefer not to test the theory of whether we can elect a Democratic version of Trump to see how much general voters will forgive in two key Senate races that we must win. Sure, we back the eventual nominee, but we should try to avoid these people before the problems arise.
He isn’t, but he has his own electability issues. Platner was the one compared to a Democratic version of Trump upthread and I think that’s a fair comparison at least in terms of imperviousness to scandal so far.
FL-11: Republican Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini was told by federal judge Mark Walker to resign from his position due to Florida's resign-to-run laws, but Sabatini is not and is now suing so he can stay on the commission. Interestingly, Walker is the only Democratic appointee currently serving the northern district of Florida on the U.S. District Court.
Just days ago, Trump's political organization sent a cease-and-desist to Sabatini for using Trump's likeness and purported endorsement in campaign ads.
Sabatini currently faces businessman Mike Wilnau and comedian Tim Wilkins in the primary, but former state Sen. Carey Baker, who would surely be the establishment favorite, is expected to join too. The filing deadline is in one week and filing opens in three days.
This might be a controversial take, but here are my feelings about Graham Platner's electoral chances.
I still think that, despite everything, Graham Platner is going to win this fall. And here's why.
The fact is, Graham Platner is pretty much the closest figure we have to the Democratic Donald Trump. A man who has never run for elected office before. Who has some political views that are somewhat unorthodox in his party, but which doesn't stop the party faithful from loving him anyway. Who professional moderate media people are horrified by. Who has faced scandal after scandal for a considerable amount of time, but whose polling numbers are hardly affected by it. Who projects a populist image. Who consistently attracts large crowds of supporters to his events. Who is running against a woman who is very well-known and considered by many to be unbeatable.
The same way that Trump narrowly beat Hillary in 2016, I think Platner narrowly defeats Collins.
I'm leaning towards that as well. Trump is so toxic and the urge to throw out an enabler will overcome ME voter misgivings about Platner this year.
I think he easily defeats Collins. And is going to also easily clear 50%+ in next week’s primary. The latest NYT article is almost all sourced from the right wing, Heritage Foundation operative, so I doubt his supporters will be swayed.
Maine: Collins internal has the race tied at 46.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/2062853940597678164?s=20
So, he's still ahead if that's the best her campaign can do, lol.
6 years ago her opponent led in virtually every poll from the summer until election day, then lost by 8 points.
This feels entirely like a “look what happened before Trump won a 2nd term” level of not understanding just how much politics have changed since then. Similarly to how many people pointed out how close Democrats came in other states prior to 2016 to argue that races in 2020, 2022 and 2024 were competitive for Democrats. It’s a completely different era between the before and after.
It’s important to realize when something has radically changed among the voting electorate. Back then it was Republican voters no longer being open to voting Democratic for any reason or candidate. Now it’s Democratic voters no longer being open to voting Republican for any reason or candidate. Jay Jones wouldn’t have won before 2024. Virginia voters wouldn’t have supported a mid decade redraw eliminating GOP seats either. The evidence is piling up in race after race, result after result that something has drastically changed for Democratic voters.
I do hope if Platner wins you’ll be willing to accept him and his flaws. Just like I and most here will join you in making sure Graham Platner never runs for any election ever again, should he lose to Susan Collins. It’s put up or shut up time for Platner, he’s got his opportunity. Will he succeed like Trump did and begin to transform who Democratic voters nominate and who leads the party? Or will he lose and never be supported for elected office again? Time will tell.
I don’t think you’ll find many people here not supporting him if he remains the nominee. There’s a difference between preferring we nominate someone without all this baggage, but that ship sailed months ago.
You also see a break with R-leaning independent/squishy R voters breaking with their party in the special elections in FL and TX... R+15 districts flipping to Democrats. That throws uncertainty that R gerrymanders are going to hold if 8-10% of Republicans defect to the other party and a plurality stay home.
I dislike characterizing Collins' 2020 win as that large. There was a substantial amount of third party voting that would have decreased the margin had Collins not won on the first round. Not all of them would have ranked Gideon ahead of Collins; not all of them would have ranked else at all for that matter. But the "real" margin if they had tabulated all the ballots to simulate a final round would probably have been in the 4-6 point range.
Or a ploy to get him to stay in the race. Wouldn’t be the first time something like that’s happened.
I think people are too pessimistic, we have to remember the general election is in 5 months. It certainly won’t get better for the republicans by then, and that will indirectly benefit Platner.
I’m not a Maine voter, but three things about Platner give me pause: lack of experience, alcohol use, treatment of women.
I mean, I'm not thrilled about those things either.
But one thing I've long believed is that elections are not a referendum on a single candidate; they are a choice between multiple (in this case, two) candidates. The question voters have to ask themselves isn't whether Platner gives them pause, it's whether or not he's better than Susan Collins. And I have strongly disliked Susan Collins for at least 15 years.
Will Platner vote to give Democrats control of the Senate? Will he vote for all of Democrats' domestic policy priorities in the Senate? Will he vote in favor of Democratic judicial nominees, and against Republican nominees? If the answers to those questions are all yes, and as far as I can tell they are, then Platner is clearly better than Susan Collins.
There's a line where those factors are outweighed by scandal, etc. In my view, that line hasn't been crossed.
Hasn't been crossed- yet. I fear that there will be a drip drip drip of negative information coming out about Platner all the way until the election and the worst stuff will come out in October.
This is what I don’t understand. Why push forward with the dark cloud of more unknown stuff hanging over him when we could wipe our hands of it? It’s too late to do that though, the time for the party to push him aside was in October 2025 and nobody really did anything.
because janet mills has less of a chance of winning that senate seat than biden did of being reelected. she is hated by the base and got to run against paul lepage in 2022, and was elected first during a trump midterm. Data center moratorium veto, alienated native voters, alienated labor, blame mills more than anyone for her lack of effort
There’s plenty of blame to go around. Bernie world is not absolved of this. They could have ditched him back in October and found another progressive who wasn’t 80 years old and didn’t have issues with labor.
She's not quite, but pretty close to, the female Jared Polis.
I think that's because his polling held up pretty well in the face of these scandals.
Platner is far from a perfect scandal. I'm thinking that he might be immune to scandals like Trump was, given how he survived the first wave of scandals that came out in October.
I agree, but it's getting closer than I would like. Still, maybe I am one of like 3 or 4 Dems on the internet to have moderate/inconclusive feelings re Platner overall.
I'm glad I'm not a Maine voter and forced to make that decision. If I were strictly voting between Platner and Collins, I would vote for Collins. But a vote for Collins then becomes a vote for a Republican Senate that supports the most threatening and evil politician this country has known, so I would vote for Platner. How many voters don't get to that second part?
This makes voting for Becerra or Steyer, not a fan of either, much more palatable.
Rhode Island voters got to that second part in 2006. Massachusetts voters got to that second part in 2012. And those were both before the Trump era.
Back in those years, the Maine Legislature was the national capital of ticket-splitting, and it went both ways. Since the Trump era began, ticket-splitting in the Maine Legislature has drastically declined. In the ME Senate, in 2024 only three districts out of 35 elected a different-party Senator to its presidential election vote, and in all of those cases the votes for President and state Senate were both close. The state House was a similar story.
So it's less of a stretch than you seem to believe that Mainers will get to that second part.
314 Action has gotten $1 million or more from AIPAC in the years 2021-24 and acts in alignment with pro-Israel funders much of the time. Needs to be said. one link:
https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/314-action-fund/C00633248/summary/2024
CA-06 lockout update: looks like some more votes from Placer county came in recently. Placer is the best county for republicans. Pan is still about 1 point or 1,000 votes outside of the top 2. According to NBC, Placer now has almost 70% in, while the two counties where Pan is currently leading, Sacramento and Yolo, have less than 50% in. Pan should pull into second when more votes in those counties are counted, assuming NBC's estimation of the vote in is close to correct.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/california-us-house-district-6-results
Last time I looked, the total D vote was over 50% in CA-06.
Right at 50.0% atm. With more blue out.
Re Platner,
Most of that stuff is in the past, yes? And frankly, I find the lack of transparency on the sourcing from the NYT to be borderline journalistic malpractice. And on the summary here to a much lesser extent.
I don't mean to auto- dismiss the claims on one hand, but on the ither have we learned nothing from the Franken & Biden accusations? Or that lady that Obama wrongly dismissed due to out of context quotes.
I have no doubt that Platner WAS a complete creep. And doubts about him linger. At the same time, he still looks like our best shot at 2026 is a lot different than 2020.
And how crappy was the Mills campaign not to unearth this?
That is a really good point. The Mills campaign should have been able to unearth this. Even more of a reason not to nominate her if things really hit the fan with Platner and we need to replace him.
Franken literally had a photograph grabbing her breasts while she was asleep.
Pretty sure the writers don't like people discussing Franken.
I mean, it's ancient news now (8yrs ago) but I see zero reason to dodge it if it's directly brought up.
Has Kiley changed his voting behavior, favored policies, etc. in tune with his switch from republican to independent? If not, I wouldn't call a top two with a democrat + him in it as a republican lock out. He's a de facto republican until and unless he changes ideologically.
Kiley still caucuses with the Repubs. He's a GOPer and an IINO (independent in name only).
A couple comments about the Citadel poll of SC. As y'all know by now, I'm a SC resident, and not living up to the Lurking part of my moniker atm.
All Lindsey is able to do with Lynch is drag up 40 year old drug charges and make wild claims about medical cocaine. For voters that spend more than 15 seconds thinking about it, I think that's probably not a meaningful argument. Too much grasping at straws. There are enough undecideds that Lindsey will probably win without a runoff. Lynch calling Graham a woman in his Tweet though is exactly the kind of gay-baiting I'd expect here. The lesser of two evils is a very low bar in that race.
The R gov poll suggests most people think Wilson will win, I do too. But considering how evenly spread the numbers are for the non-Wilson folks, and fewer undecideds, I think the vast majority are in the ABW camp...anybody but Wilson, so maybe he gets locked out of the runoff.
EV remains steadily busier than past years here.
Other poll numbers from the linked Citadel poll that didn't make the Poll Pile
SCGov R 600 respondents LV
Pamela Evette 17%
Josh Kimbrell 1
Nancy Mace 16
Ralph Norman 13
Rom Reddy 14
Alan Wilson 16
Not sure 23
SC Gov D 427 LV (Can't remember if this is too small for TDB to report)
Jermaine Johnson 33%
Mullins McLeod 6
Billy Webster 18
Not sure 43
SC Sen D
Annie Andrews 45%
Brandon Brown 14
Kyle Freeman 5
Not sure 36
Also to note from Citadel poll.
Crosstabs showed 7% of RVs in poll were 18-24 but only 1-2% of LVs for each party. To the extent that a campaign galvanize young voters, it could make a difference.
SC Republicans totally have their heads in the sand about climate change, with vast majoritites unconcerned about Hurricanes, droughts, and heat waves. We're in a massive drought now. Come on! Strong El Niño may help protect us this fall from hurricanes.
MI-SEN:
https://bsky.app/profile/ericmgarcia.bsky.social/post/3mnkbklqmyc2i
The UAW just endorsed Abdul El-Sayed.
I’ve seen people on here be nervous about Abdul. Whatever you think of him in the primary, if he does end up winning, I want to emphasize that we need to be prepared to support him in the general, even if he was with Hasan Piker or whatever. Which is worse — having a Senator who was with Hasan Piker, or losing the Senate to the GOP again?
💯
i think the concern would be if aes can actually win the general, not his policies
I’m well aware, and it’s a concern I have as well. I’m just saying we have to be willing to support him if he does.
My concern isn't if he can win in 2026. It's if he can win in a non-wave year. Which he would inevitably face at some point as a senator. Maybe as early as 2032. Maybe later down the road.
But if he is the nominee, then we worry about that when the time comes for it.
Yeah, idk how big this universe is but anyone who's still in the tank for Platner as a supporter/donor logically would have to do the same for El-Sayed as nominee.
Why? I don't see the comparison. There's no scandal surrounding El-Sayed. Except the prejudice against him due to his ethnicity and religion.
Yes, exactly. If they're willing to say people should hold their noses for Platner to flip the Senate, there is no excuse to not say the same for El-Sayed.
Tbh, this is the wrong audience to warn about needing to support him in the general. I think 99.9% of the people who regularly read/post here will support him to the hilt in the general no questions asked. The people that need to be put on a leash are the donors and James Carville types (yuck) who will give the media endless quotes about him being unelectable and subtly sabotage him. I'm pretty sure at least the major party organizations won't throw away a must-win race, but you never know.
I do agree. Admittedly I’m a little nervous that Schumer, et al, will be hesitant to support a potential Abdul candidacy. Then again, they backed Platner when Mills dropped out, so who knows.
The issue is why are we nominating bad candidates? I’d prefer not to test the theory of whether we can elect a Democratic version of Trump to see how much general voters will forgive in two key Senate races that we must win. Sure, we back the eventual nominee, but we should try to avoid these people before the problems arise.
He's not a Democratic version of Trump. I remember Bill Clinton getting elected despite threats of "bimbo eruptions" just about every week.
You are entitled to your opinion. I’m not going to act like all these things aren’t issues that would have sank candidates in a prior era.
How is Abdul El-Sayed the Democratic version of Trump?
He isn’t, but he has his own electability issues. Platner was the one compared to a Democratic version of Trump upthread and I think that’s a fair comparison at least in terms of imperviousness to scandal so far.
https://www.clickorlando.com/election-2026/2026/06/04/lake-commissioner-anthony-sabatini-refuses-to-resign-to-run-for-congress-sues-florida-to-block-law/
FL-11: Republican Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini was told by federal judge Mark Walker to resign from his position due to Florida's resign-to-run laws, but Sabatini is not and is now suing so he can stay on the commission. Interestingly, Walker is the only Democratic appointee currently serving the northern district of Florida on the U.S. District Court.
Just days ago, Trump's political organization sent a cease-and-desist to Sabatini for using Trump's likeness and purported endorsement in campaign ads.
Sabatini currently faces businessman Mike Wilnau and comedian Tim Wilkins in the primary, but former state Sen. Carey Baker, who would surely be the establishment favorite, is expected to join too. The filing deadline is in one week and filing opens in three days.