I think Republicans care about pollution if it directly impacts their communities and constituents, just not when it's literally anyone else's problem. They'd dump a Love Canal's worth of hazardous waste on a blue communities if they could, but will squeal if a nearby plant hurts their home values.
Atlanta may never be considered for a Democratic National Convention as long as South Carolina (which neighbors Georgia) has the first presidential nominating contest on the Democratic side. Minneapolis has never seriously been considered for a DNC for a similar reason (Iowa was first in the nation for Democrats for many presidential cycles); Minneapolis would also have the problem of the Minnesota State Fair (which is one of the largest state fairs in the country and a huge deal there) being held opposite a DNC there and overshadowing the DNC. When Minneapolis hosted the 2008 Republican National Convention, the opening day of the RNC went up against the final day of the state fair and was further overshadowed by Hurricane Gustav affecting Louisiana. Interestingly, the 2028 RNC will be held in Houston, a very hurricane-prone city.
I would love for a mid-sized city like Fort Wayne, Indiana or Fargo, North Dakota to host a DNC, but that will never happen for logistical reasons.
I'm guessing that Boston (hasn't hosted a DNC as recently as the other two cities) or Philadelphia (in a swing state) will get the 2028 DNC. Denver got the 2008 DNC because Colorado was a swing state at the time, whereas Colorado is a Democratic stronghold nowadays.
I mean, Austin after all is the capital of Texas, where the tech & startup scene has the most action, where the annual SXSW Festival is and is where the Alamo Drafthouse started. Great social scene too!
It has historically had a small local bump from organizing and media attention. I suspect that small bump has shrunk with time, as media coverage becomes increasingly nationalized.
More important than the electoral landscape is the ability to pull off a good convention. If Denver or Boston gave us a better run convention than Philly, then Denver/Boston would help us more, even though Philly is in the most important swing state and the other two are not.
It's extra nasty in here today. The constant bickering and blaming between moderates and progressives in here is supplanting intelligent conversation, and I'm so tired of it.
To me it's been a problem since June and the New York primaries. I remember making a big "Guys, we need to stick together!" post after that that got a lot of attention, but no one seems to have stuck with that, likely including myself.
I think there is a very small cohort of posters who keep pushing everyone's else buttons. Most of us probably fall into one camp or the other but prefer unity, but it's hard to stay silent if you feel your camp has been attacked.
I’ve never been a fan of Bernie. I agree with a lot of his policy proposals, but he holds a grudge, talks a big game, and never delivers. At least the younger members of Congress like the Squad are better at messaging than he is.
He was a Democrat when he wanted the presidential nomination. I think among the Democratic party he caucuses with he could find plenty of people who support his views and need the money more than he does.
First of all, talk of the 2016 primary is off limits and second of all he isn't up for reelection until 2030. It's not like he can just retire right now, and if he resigns we'll have a Republican governor appoint his replacement.
There's a difference between honesty and sheer egotism. Sanders' proteges like AOC are much better at conveying the honesty and populism without being egotistical and grouchy.
Where did he say that? I'm only seeing that he's made a generic statement about doing what he can, but no specific commitment. That would be great if he directed some funds to AES.
OP implied they didn't like El-Sayed on a different thread several days ago where they said Democrats should vote "uncommitted" in the general election. Which, of course, would strengthen Republican nominee Mike Rogers.
I see it's time for the annual Hendrix College nonsense poll. Has anyone ever talked to their director about their methods and if they have any shame anymore.
I'd argue worse. WI-GOV's polling was simply flawed as a result of the chaotic nature of the primary and the amount of undecideds, and MI-SEN's polling at the very least accurately predicted the winner. Hendrix's polls are firmly within fantasyland, as much as I hate to say it as an Arkansan.
The senate seat won't flip, but that being said I do expect it to be closer than Tom Cotton would've liked. Tom Cotton can best be described as someone with the unlikability of Ted Cruz, the awkward aloofness of Al Gore, and the hawkishness of Lindsay Graham. Morning Consult put his popularity at 49%-34% as of January 2026, so he's still well above water but being unable to crack 50% as a Republican in deep red Arkansas isn't great, and who knows how his popularity has changed in the almost 8 months since it was updated there? Given that, plus the national environment, and Shoffner's incredibly strong campaign for a Dem in a red state, I say it goes 55-45, give or take a few points from either candidate to account for the Libertarian running.
It would still be a massive swing, but one I think is within the realm of reality. I personally think we're going to see the bottom fall out on independent/Republican leaning independent support for the GOP in a lot red states harder than other swing/blue states. Not enough to overcome the natural GOP advantage these states have, but enough to lead to some crazy, unexpected swings. A lot of red states, and southern red states in particular, have strong Democratic candidates running for statewide office this year like in Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, etc.
Indeed it is. We did manage to flip an NWA district in 2024, and we had a special election early this year flip a red-leaning Little Rock area district to the Democrats. Looking at the map I see atleast seven Republican held districts that could be flipped if Shoffner performs well at the top of the ticket, which would bring the Republicans down to a 73-27 majority. The significance of this is that appropriations legislation needs a 75% majority to pass, so being brought below that would make it harder for Republicans to be annoying (although I also wouldn't be surprised if they try to find a way to quickly amend that rule if they get brought below 75 members).
I bet AR Republicans would probably bribe a couple of more conservative Democrats to help pass appropriations legislation, much like how Phil Berger and Destin Hall bribed the three conservadems (who lost their primaries!) to override Gov Stein's vetoes here in NC.
Possibly, although from what I've seen we don't have any conservadems in the Arkansas state house, atleast at first glance, and of course you never *really* know until it matters. Ever since Pryor's loss the state party is more dominated by liberal to progressive style Democrats, like Shoffner, since they're the only ones who actually bother to run
1. Close as in the way Hendrix is presenting it? No. But it very well could keep shifting towards competitiveness as the campaign reaches the end and Trump only makes things worse. Chris Jones is raising a decent amount of money for a Democrat in Arkansas and has name recognition from his run for governor in 2022. Pulaski county, the largest blue county in Arkansas, is split three ways and the second district contains the most of it. Pulaski is also one of our lowest turnout counties, because of course it is. If Republican turnout is depressed and Pulaski breaks the streak of low turnout, the typical dynamics of the district will shift, and in our favor. I wouldn’t bet money on the district flipping but it very well could be one of those “out there” flips we see in wave elections every now and then, like SC-1 and UT-4 in 2018 (and on that note, AR-2 has a less Republican rating in the Cook PVI than either of those districts did when they flipped - R+8 opposed to R+10 and R+13 respectively).
2. Ark-ken-saw. Kansas is the one pronouncing it wrong and I’m tired of the slander! We came first!
Ha. If it makes you feel any better, Arkansas was in my consciousness way before Kansas, because we vacationed there once and I've driven through on the way to Tx a few other times. Still have never been to Kansas, the only state I've never been to.
But I really meant the pronunciation of someone from Ankansas, not the state name.
My girlfriend and I drove up to Kansas City last weekend for an IKEA pickup. The drive was so mindnumbingly boring that I’d be satisfied to never visit either Missouri or Kansas ever again
And I misunderstood the question, it would indeed be pronounced “Ar-CAN-sen”
Why does the DCCC drag its feet on the Red to Blue endorsements? Are they privately negotiating something with the candidates, e.g. asking them to tone down certain policy positions or agree to do / not do certain things?
Quite a day for Democratic polls. Not everyone D is in the lead. Polls may vary in quality. When they are very close they may not mean much. And any one poll may not mean much. But thinking of them altogether, it is an encouraging batch of polls for Democrats.
Those Hendrix polls always way overestimate Dems. I remember there were similar polls for AR-02 in 2020 from them that put the Dem basically even with the R incumbent and the incumbent won by double digits.
Some of these smaller colleges that do polling like St. Petersburg in Florida or Hendrix seem to release polls that don't weight . . it's like they release polls showing the raw responses of who they called. I remember the former releasing a poll of Hilary up by like 18 in Florida in 2016.
Dartmouth published a Harris +18 poll in NH in October 2024. Turns out they MAILED surveys out to people on a Dartmouth mailing list and just recorded what came back!
Wow, Wonderfull news on the polls today!!! Most surprising- the Arkansas senate race, Democrat winning over Tom Cotton, one of the worst in the senate.
As an Arkansan who's been following the Shoffner campaign almost since it began I feel obligated to inform everybody that the Hendrix poll is utter shit. Like, worse than useless. This firm has consistently released polls overestimating Democratic support in the past - I remember being a bit fooled by a poll in 2024 that had Harris down by only 15 points. These polls are legitimately on the same level as those polls that were faked to have Hong up by 20 points, or those polls that showed Fishback almost tied with Donalds in Florida that were actually done *for* the Fishback campaign and didn't disclose it. If it's Hendrix, ignore it. Same with that other poll by that 2040 group.
That being said it's not as if the Arkansas senate race isn't worth looking at, even as just a barometer of how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans and not necessarily as a competitive race. I still think Arkansas is going to surprise us in some way this year, whether its a closer than expected result in the senate race or even a surprise Chris Jones victory in District 2, which is our least Republican district and also has a very strong Democratic candidate, who might be able to harness the backlash we're seeing from black voters nationwide and especially in the south. But while Shoffner being declared the winner on November 3rd would be an amazing birthday gift, until Emerson or Sienna or even biased pollsters that are less obviously shit like Data for Progress or Trafalgar publish polls showing similar numbers, don't get your hopes up too high. But if it's ever going to happen, now is when it would.
Looking at their "crosstabs" here (https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-trump-gets-low-marks-for-job-performance/)(the specific page is about Trump's disapproval but this is where their methodology link on the senate poll article leads to, so I assume they're part of the same poll) it looks to me like they're undercounting Republican voters and overestimating "independent" voters. What's tricky about that is that in Arkansas you can register as a Republican, Democrat, or "Optional," the last of which make up a whopping *87%* of Arkansas voters. Of course not all of these 87% are actually independents/nonpartisan, it might stem from the fact you have to write in the party you wish to register with and thus a lot of people just skip over it. The Independent Voter Project tries to put the actual balance at 40% independent, 38.7% Republican, and 21.3% Democratic. Again, I would guess a large portion of that 40% "independent" is mainly made up of Republican voting independents, and I question how accurate using primary ballot history is to get these numbers. When Hendrix samples "independents," it's very likely they're oversampling Democratic leaning independents in blue leaning areas without attempting to correct/account for independents who consistently vote and lean Republican.
I wouldn't call Hendrix polls completely fake, as they do poll people, but their polls at least border on not being scientific polls, if they aren't outright nonscientific.
WV-Gov (2028): Incumbent Patrick Morrisey is likely running for reelection. But that hasn't stopped high-profile primary challengers from beginning to make moves.
State Treasurer Larry Pack, for example, has had a highly public feud with Morrisey over school food vouchers. Pack would likely be a weak candidate, as he has little statewide name recognition.
However, the rumor mill suggests Sen. and former Gov. Jim Justice might primary Morrisey, due to a recent victory in keeping part ownership of the Greenbrier hotel. If Justice runs, a very interesting three-way primary would emerge between three statewide elected officials including an incumbent and former holder.
Among Democrats, IMHO state Sen. Joey Garcia would be the best candidate. He's already rumored to be retiring from the legislature in 2028. He's well known in my area, his district, which includes Morgantown.
SC-Sen: Trump is campaigning with Sen. Darline Graham today in Myrtle Beach in a push to put her over Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff on Tuesday.
I think Republicans care about pollution if it directly impacts their communities and constituents, just not when it's literally anyone else's problem. They'd dump a Love Canal's worth of hazardous waste on a blue communities if they could, but will squeal if a nearby plant hurts their home values.
Just like how they are fine with oil drilling in Alaska but not on the Florida coast.
Atlanta may never be considered for a Democratic National Convention as long as South Carolina (which neighbors Georgia) has the first presidential nominating contest on the Democratic side. Minneapolis has never seriously been considered for a DNC for a similar reason (Iowa was first in the nation for Democrats for many presidential cycles); Minneapolis would also have the problem of the Minnesota State Fair (which is one of the largest state fairs in the country and a huge deal there) being held opposite a DNC there and overshadowing the DNC. When Minneapolis hosted the 2008 Republican National Convention, the opening day of the RNC went up against the final day of the state fair and was further overshadowed by Hurricane Gustav affecting Louisiana. Interestingly, the 2028 RNC will be held in Houston, a very hurricane-prone city.
I would love for a mid-sized city like Fort Wayne, Indiana or Fargo, North Dakota to host a DNC, but that will never happen for logistical reasons.
I'm guessing that Boston (hasn't hosted a DNC as recently as the other two cities) or Philadelphia (in a swing state) will get the 2028 DNC. Denver got the 2008 DNC because Colorado was a swing state at the time, whereas Colorado is a Democratic stronghold nowadays.
Philly.
I'd like to see a DNC Convention at states Democrats don't normally hold them at - Like Austin, Houston, or even New Orleans.
The 2004 DNC Convention had been hosted in Boston so there's no need to have it again. Likewise in 2008 the DNC Convention was held in Denver.
I would have thought Austin or some other Texas city would be high up on the list given the opportunities there this cycle
I mean, Austin after all is the capital of Texas, where the tech & startup scene has the most action, where the annual SXSW Festival is and is where the Alamo Drafthouse started. Great social scene too!
Austin would be great but first there'd need to be a convention center for it haha...they're rebuilding it from the ground up. Maybe for 2032?
Looks like it’s set to be redeveloped after being demolished for a 2029 opening date.
So perhaps the 2032 presidential election year?
https://www.kut.org/austin/2025-02-26/austin-tx-convention-center-construction-new-design
"New Orleans or even New Orleans", lol. I would like Houston.
I needed to have coffee this morning. Hence the accidental mention of New Orleans twice (re-edited it earlier).
Houston would be fine. Closer to the Mexico border than Austin.
Honestly, does the location for the convention matter even one iota? I'm skeptical...
It has historically had a small local bump from organizing and media attention. I suspect that small bump has shrunk with time, as media coverage becomes increasingly nationalized.
More important than the electoral landscape is the ability to pull off a good convention. If Denver or Boston gave us a better run convention than Philly, then Denver/Boston would help us more, even though Philly is in the most important swing state and the other two are not.
I am not making a big deal of it. I just think it’s silly that the DNC has to go through considering the same cities more than once.
The digest covered this exact content.
About time they added Dunlap.
Octogenarian. He's not 90, and turns 85 next month.
The Bernie Bashers are out in full force. LOL.
Which I really don't understand because that's not what's important at all right now. The left needs to be united.
It's extra nasty in here today. The constant bickering and blaming between moderates and progressives in here is supplanting intelligent conversation, and I'm so tired of it.
To me it's been a problem since June and the New York primaries. I remember making a big "Guys, we need to stick together!" post after that that got a lot of attention, but no one seems to have stuck with that, likely including myself.
I think there is a very small cohort of posters who keep pushing everyone's else buttons. Most of us probably fall into one camp or the other but prefer unity, but it's hard to stay silent if you feel your camp has been attacked.
I’m over it. I’ve also been a Platner and Hong hater since basically day 1. Time to lock the fuck in.
I’ve never been a fan of Bernie. I agree with a lot of his policy proposals, but he holds a grudge, talks a big game, and never delivers. At least the younger members of Congress like the Squad are better at messaging than he is.
Bernie has always struck me as a dishonest messenger but it's important to remember he is not a Democrat and has no obligation the party.
He was a Democrat when he wanted the presidential nomination. I think among the Democratic party he caucuses with he could find plenty of people who support his views and need the money more than he does.
Bernie needs to fucking retire. His ego got in the way back then.
Can't Vermont vote in significantly younger Democratic Senators?
First of all, talk of the 2016 primary is off limits and second of all he isn't up for reelection until 2030. It's not like he can just retire right now, and if he resigns we'll have a Republican governor appoint his replacement.
I edited my comment.
Hey remember, age is only an issue if they're not DSA/progressive.
I hope you're being flippant when you say that.
Sanders running was a shot in the arm for Dem populism and he was/is in the right on a host of issues.
M4A. Corporate Oligarchy. Raising the min Wage.
He is a lot higher on the honesty scale than most centrists.
There's a difference between honesty and sheer egotism. Sanders' proteges like AOC are much better at conveying the honesty and populism without being egotistical and grouchy.
Thank you, Vindman!
Bernie has already said he’s looking to spend his money on Abdul (and possibly others). You must be SEETHING at the prospect of Abdul winning!!
Where did he say that? I'm only seeing that he's made a generic statement about doing what he can, but no specific commitment. That would be great if he directed some funds to AES.
OP implied they didn't like El-Sayed on a different thread several days ago where they said Democrats should vote "uncommitted" in the general election. Which, of course, would strengthen Republican nominee Mike Rogers.
Ah, I was asking where Bernie said he would spend on AES. I'm not super interested in OP's views on the race.
I'm not exactly the best messenger, but neither this, nor the original post, are coming across as particularly mature here...
Sapphire blue is a funny way to describe a new england state with a GOP governor in 2026.
I see it's time for the annual Hendrix College nonsense poll. Has anyone ever talked to their director about their methods and if they have any shame anymore.
It's like the same pollsters that predicted Hong and AES would win the WI-GOV and MI-SEN primary by 20 points and they didn't.
If the AR-SEN seat DID flip, that would be a nuclear bomb in AR politics and a BIG black eye for the AR GOP.
If AR-Sen flips, a lot of other red states are likely to as well, and we'd be looking at a 60-seat majority.
I'd argue worse. WI-GOV's polling was simply flawed as a result of the chaotic nature of the primary and the amount of undecideds, and MI-SEN's polling at the very least accurately predicted the winner. Hendrix's polls are firmly within fantasyland, as much as I hate to say it as an Arkansan.
The senate seat won't flip, but that being said I do expect it to be closer than Tom Cotton would've liked. Tom Cotton can best be described as someone with the unlikability of Ted Cruz, the awkward aloofness of Al Gore, and the hawkishness of Lindsay Graham. Morning Consult put his popularity at 49%-34% as of January 2026, so he's still well above water but being unable to crack 50% as a Republican in deep red Arkansas isn't great, and who knows how his popularity has changed in the almost 8 months since it was updated there? Given that, plus the national environment, and Shoffner's incredibly strong campaign for a Dem in a red state, I say it goes 55-45, give or take a few points from either candidate to account for the Libertarian running.
It would still be a massive swing, but one I think is within the realm of reality. I personally think we're going to see the bottom fall out on independent/Republican leaning independent support for the GOP in a lot red states harder than other swing/blue states. Not enough to overcome the natural GOP advantage these states have, but enough to lead to some crazy, unexpected swings. A lot of red states, and southern red states in particular, have strong Democratic candidates running for statewide office this year like in Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, etc.
I can see AR Dems gaining seats in the state legislature. That 80R-20D supermajority is embarrassing.
Indeed it is. We did manage to flip an NWA district in 2024, and we had a special election early this year flip a red-leaning Little Rock area district to the Democrats. Looking at the map I see atleast seven Republican held districts that could be flipped if Shoffner performs well at the top of the ticket, which would bring the Republicans down to a 73-27 majority. The significance of this is that appropriations legislation needs a 75% majority to pass, so being brought below that would make it harder for Republicans to be annoying (although I also wouldn't be surprised if they try to find a way to quickly amend that rule if they get brought below 75 members).
I bet AR Republicans would probably bribe a couple of more conservative Democrats to help pass appropriations legislation, much like how Phil Berger and Destin Hall bribed the three conservadems (who lost their primaries!) to override Gov Stein's vetoes here in NC.
Possibly, although from what I've seen we don't have any conservadems in the Arkansas state house, atleast at first glance, and of course you never *really* know until it matters. Ever since Pryor's loss the state party is more dominated by liberal to progressive style Democrats, like Shoffner, since they're the only ones who actually bother to run
I made a one-time donation to Shoffner's campaign this summer, as I was impressed by her interview with Jess Piper.
Two questions: 1. Do you really think the French Hill race is that close? 2. Is Arkansan pronounced ar-CAN-sen or AR-ken-sawn? Or something else?
1. Close as in the way Hendrix is presenting it? No. But it very well could keep shifting towards competitiveness as the campaign reaches the end and Trump only makes things worse. Chris Jones is raising a decent amount of money for a Democrat in Arkansas and has name recognition from his run for governor in 2022. Pulaski county, the largest blue county in Arkansas, is split three ways and the second district contains the most of it. Pulaski is also one of our lowest turnout counties, because of course it is. If Republican turnout is depressed and Pulaski breaks the streak of low turnout, the typical dynamics of the district will shift, and in our favor. I wouldn’t bet money on the district flipping but it very well could be one of those “out there” flips we see in wave elections every now and then, like SC-1 and UT-4 in 2018 (and on that note, AR-2 has a less Republican rating in the Cook PVI than either of those districts did when they flipped - R+8 opposed to R+10 and R+13 respectively).
2. Ark-ken-saw. Kansas is the one pronouncing it wrong and I’m tired of the slander! We came first!
Ha. If it makes you feel any better, Arkansas was in my consciousness way before Kansas, because we vacationed there once and I've driven through on the way to Tx a few other times. Still have never been to Kansas, the only state I've never been to.
But I really meant the pronunciation of someone from Ankansas, not the state name.
My girlfriend and I drove up to Kansas City last weekend for an IKEA pickup. The drive was so mindnumbingly boring that I’d be satisfied to never visit either Missouri or Kansas ever again
And I misunderstood the question, it would indeed be pronounced “Ar-CAN-sen”
No way is that true; after all, John McClellan once won in a landslide.
!
I rest my case
Wow, those dueling AZ-Gov polls are something.
Why does the DCCC drag its feet on the Red to Blue endorsements? Are they privately negotiating something with the candidates, e.g. asking them to tone down certain policy positions or agree to do / not do certain things?
Quite a day for Democratic polls. Not everyone D is in the lead. Polls may vary in quality. When they are very close they may not mean much. And any one poll may not mean much. But thinking of them altogether, it is an encouraging batch of polls for Democrats.
Arkansas Senate: Shoffner (D) 47. Inc Cotton (R ) 44
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed (D).48. Rogers (R ) 47
Minnesota Senate Flanagan (D) 50. Tafoya (R ) 45
New Hampshire Senate Inc. Pappas (D) 48 Sununu (R ) 41
Arizona Governor Inc Hobbs (D) 39. Biggs (R ) 38
Michigan Governor Benson (D) 49. James (R ) 44
New Hampshire Governor Warmington (D) 38. Inc Ayotte 49
Arizona Attorney General Inc Mayes (D) 37 Peterson (R ) 34
Minnesota Sec of State Inc Simon (D) 41 June (R ) 34
Minnesota Auditor Filipovich (D) 39 Jensen (R ) 39
Arkansas 02. Jones 48 (D) Inc Hill (R ) 44
New Hampshire 02 Inc Goodlander (D) 41 Wiulliams (R ) 35
Those Hendrix polls always way overestimate Dems. I remember there were similar polls for AR-02 in 2020 from them that put the Dem basically even with the R incumbent and the incumbent won by double digits.
Some of these smaller colleges that do polling like St. Petersburg in Florida or Hendrix seem to release polls that don't weight . . it's like they release polls showing the raw responses of who they called. I remember the former releasing a poll of Hilary up by like 18 in Florida in 2016.
St Pete’s polling was horrible in 2020. Had Democrats winning a bunch of state legislative seats that they ended up losing by double digits.
Dartmouth published a Harris +18 poll in NH in October 2024. Turns out they MAILED surveys out to people on a Dartmouth mailing list and just recorded what came back!
Old school ;)
Wow, Wonderfull news on the polls today!!! Most surprising- the Arkansas senate race, Democrat winning over Tom Cotton, one of the worst in the senate.
The AR-SEN race is done by a trash pollster though. If Sabato or Cook Report had polled similar results in AR-SEN, that would be an eye-opener.
As an Arkansan who's been following the Shoffner campaign almost since it began I feel obligated to inform everybody that the Hendrix poll is utter shit. Like, worse than useless. This firm has consistently released polls overestimating Democratic support in the past - I remember being a bit fooled by a poll in 2024 that had Harris down by only 15 points. These polls are legitimately on the same level as those polls that were faked to have Hong up by 20 points, or those polls that showed Fishback almost tied with Donalds in Florida that were actually done *for* the Fishback campaign and didn't disclose it. If it's Hendrix, ignore it. Same with that other poll by that 2040 group.
That being said it's not as if the Arkansas senate race isn't worth looking at, even as just a barometer of how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans and not necessarily as a competitive race. I still think Arkansas is going to surprise us in some way this year, whether its a closer than expected result in the senate race or even a surprise Chris Jones victory in District 2, which is our least Republican district and also has a very strong Democratic candidate, who might be able to harness the backlash we're seeing from black voters nationwide and especially in the south. But while Shoffner being declared the winner on November 3rd would be an amazing birthday gift, until Emerson or Sienna or even biased pollsters that are less obviously shit like Data for Progress or Trafalgar publish polls showing similar numbers, don't get your hopes up too high. But if it's ever going to happen, now is when it would.
Has Hendrix given thought to polling outside Little Rock?
Yes - Fayetteville. :P
Looking at their "crosstabs" here (https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-trump-gets-low-marks-for-job-performance/)(the specific page is about Trump's disapproval but this is where their methodology link on the senate poll article leads to, so I assume they're part of the same poll) it looks to me like they're undercounting Republican voters and overestimating "independent" voters. What's tricky about that is that in Arkansas you can register as a Republican, Democrat, or "Optional," the last of which make up a whopping *87%* of Arkansas voters. Of course not all of these 87% are actually independents/nonpartisan, it might stem from the fact you have to write in the party you wish to register with and thus a lot of people just skip over it. The Independent Voter Project tries to put the actual balance at 40% independent, 38.7% Republican, and 21.3% Democratic. Again, I would guess a large portion of that 40% "independent" is mainly made up of Republican voting independents, and I question how accurate using primary ballot history is to get these numbers. When Hendrix samples "independents," it's very likely they're oversampling Democratic leaning independents in blue leaning areas without attempting to correct/account for independents who consistently vote and lean Republican.
i think hendrix had biden tied with trump in arkansas in may or june of 2020, the name has stuck out ever since
I wouldn't call Hendrix polls completely fake, as they do poll people, but their polls at least border on not being scientific polls, if they aren't outright nonscientific.
WI—Crowley up 4 in a Republican pollster with a 2024-modeled electorate.
https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-4/#google_vignette
https://wvmetronews.com/2026/08/21/justice-has-a-decision-to-make/
WV-Gov (2028): Incumbent Patrick Morrisey is likely running for reelection. But that hasn't stopped high-profile primary challengers from beginning to make moves.
State Treasurer Larry Pack, for example, has had a highly public feud with Morrisey over school food vouchers. Pack would likely be a weak candidate, as he has little statewide name recognition.
However, the rumor mill suggests Sen. and former Gov. Jim Justice might primary Morrisey, due to a recent victory in keeping part ownership of the Greenbrier hotel. If Justice runs, a very interesting three-way primary would emerge between three statewide elected officials including an incumbent and former holder.
Among Democrats, IMHO state Sen. Joey Garcia would be the best candidate. He's already rumored to be retiring from the legislature in 2028. He's well known in my area, his district, which includes Morgantown.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-south-carolina-campaign-darline-graham-senate-96df66a656438fb97daf9d9a551ebda5
SC-Sen: Trump is campaigning with Sen. Darline Graham today in Myrtle Beach in a push to put her over Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff on Tuesday.
Why of course! Let Trump be Trump in this case.