I see it's time for the annual Hendrix College nonsense poll. Has anyone ever talked to their director about their methods and if they have any shame anymore.
I'd argue worse. WI-GOV's polling was simply flawed as a result of the chaotic nature of the primary and the amount of undecideds, and MI-SEN's polling at the very least accurately predicted the winner. Hendrix's polls are firmly within fantasyland, as much as I hate to say it as an Arkansan.
The senate seat won't flip, but that being said I do expect it to be closer than Tom Cotton would've liked. Tom Cotton can best be described as someone with the unlikability of Ted Cruz, the awkward aloofness of Al Gore, and the hawkishness of Lindsay Graham. Morning Consult put his popularity at 49%-34% as of January 2026, so he's still well above water but being unable to crack 50% as a Republican in deep red Arkansas isn't great, and who knows how his popularity has changed in the almost 8 months since it was updated there? Given that, plus the national environment, and Shoffner's incredibly strong campaign for a Dem in a red state, I say it goes 55-45, give or take a few points from either candidate to account for the Libertarian running.
It would still be a massive swing, but one I think is within the realm of reality. I personally think we're going to see the bottom fall out on independent/Republican leaning independent support for the GOP in a lot red states harder than other swing/blue states. Not enough to overcome the natural GOP advantage these states have, but enough to lead to some crazy, unexpected swings. A lot of red states, and southern red states in particular, have strong Democratic candidates running for statewide office this year like in Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, etc.
Vindman beginning to transfer money from his $6million war chest. Sending $400k to the Florida Democratic Party and says "more to come" specifically referencing the Gov race. Simultaeously sent a fundraising email for Angie Nixon.
As mentioned yesterday, Elizabeth Warren also disbursed $600k.
Meanwhile nonagenarian and newly reelected Bernie Sanders is sitting on $22million in saphire blue, tiny Vermont. He should be moving that money ASAP before the tsunami of Republican and Elon Musk money begins soon.
He was a Democrat when he wanted the presidential nomination. I think among the Democratic party he caucuses with he could find plenty of people who support his views and need the money more than he does.
First of all, talk of the 2016 primary is off limits and second of all he isn't up for reelection until 2030. It's not like he can just retire right now, and if he resigns we'll have a Republican governor appoint his replacement.
Mentioning this from the policial angle of pissing off GA voters. supposedly Atl didnt have as much $$ pledged but frankly Boston would be a total wasted opportunity, Denver at least would send it back to the West for a change, and Philly is a swing state but we've been there done that. ATL deserves it by now.
Why does the DCCC drag its feet on the Red to Blue endorsements? Are they privately negotiating something with the candidates, e.g. asking them to tone down certain policy positions or agree to do / not do certain things?
Quite a day for Democratic polls. Not everyone D is in the lead. Polls may vary in quality. When they are very close they may not mean much. And any one poll may not mean much. But thinking of them altogether, it is an encouraging batch of polls for Democrats.
Those Hendrix polls always way overestimate Dems. I remember there were similar polls for AR-02 in 2020 from them that put the Dem basically even with the R incumbent and the incumbent won by double digits.
Wow, Wonderfull news on the polls today!!! Most surprising- the Arkansas senate race, Democrat winning over Tom Cotton, one of the worst in the senate.
As an Arkansan who's been following the Shoffner campaign almost since it began I feel obligated to inform everybody that the Hendrix poll is utter shit. Like, worse than useless. This firm has consistently released polls overestimating Democratic support in the past - I remember being a bit fooled by a poll in 2024 that had Harris down by only 15 points. These polls are legitimately on the same level as those polls that were faked to have Hong up by 20 points, or those polls that showed Fishback almost tied with Donalds in Florida that were actually done *for* the Fishback campaign and didn't disclose it. If it's Hendrix, ignore it. Same with that other poll by that 2040 group.
That being said it's not as if the Arkansas senate race isn't worth looking at, even as just a barometer of how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans and not necessarily as a competitive race. I still think Arkansas is going to surprise us in some way this year, whether its a closer than expected result in the senate race or even a surprise Chris Jones victory in District 2, which is our least Republican district and also has a very strong Democratic candidate, who might be able to harness the backlash we're seeing from black voters nationwide and especially in the south. But while Shoffner being declared the winner on November 3rd would be an amazing birthday gift, until Emerson or Sienna or even biased pollsters that are less obviously shit like Data for Progress or Trafalgar publish polls showing similar numbers, don't get your hopes up too high. But if it's ever going to happen, now is when it would.
I see it's time for the annual Hendrix College nonsense poll. Has anyone ever talked to their director about their methods and if they have any shame anymore.
It's like the same pollsters that predicted Hong and AES would win the WI-GOV and MI-SEN primary by 20 points and they didn't.
If the AR-SEN seat DID flip, that would be a nuclear bomb in AR politics and a BIG black eye for the AR GOP.
If AR-Sen flips, a lot of other red states are likely to as well, and we'd be looking at a 60-seat majority.
I'd argue worse. WI-GOV's polling was simply flawed as a result of the chaotic nature of the primary and the amount of undecideds, and MI-SEN's polling at the very least accurately predicted the winner. Hendrix's polls are firmly within fantasyland, as much as I hate to say it as an Arkansan.
The senate seat won't flip, but that being said I do expect it to be closer than Tom Cotton would've liked. Tom Cotton can best be described as someone with the unlikability of Ted Cruz, the awkward aloofness of Al Gore, and the hawkishness of Lindsay Graham. Morning Consult put his popularity at 49%-34% as of January 2026, so he's still well above water but being unable to crack 50% as a Republican in deep red Arkansas isn't great, and who knows how his popularity has changed in the almost 8 months since it was updated there? Given that, plus the national environment, and Shoffner's incredibly strong campaign for a Dem in a red state, I say it goes 55-45, give or take a few points from either candidate to account for the Libertarian running.
It would still be a massive swing, but one I think is within the realm of reality. I personally think we're going to see the bottom fall out on independent/Republican leaning independent support for the GOP in a lot red states harder than other swing/blue states. Not enough to overcome the natural GOP advantage these states have, but enough to lead to some crazy, unexpected swings. A lot of red states, and southern red states in particular, have strong Democratic candidates running for statewide office this year like in Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, etc.
I can see AR Dems gaining seats in the state legislature. That 80R-20D supermajority is embarrassing.
Vindman beginning to transfer money from his $6million war chest. Sending $400k to the Florida Democratic Party and says "more to come" specifically referencing the Gov race. Simultaeously sent a fundraising email for Angie Nixon.
As mentioned yesterday, Elizabeth Warren also disbursed $600k.
Meanwhile nonagenarian and newly reelected Bernie Sanders is sitting on $22million in saphire blue, tiny Vermont. He should be moving that money ASAP before the tsunami of Republican and Elon Musk money begins soon.
Octogenarian. He's not 90, and turns 85 next month.
Bernie has always struck me as a dishonest messenger but it's important to remember he is not a Democrat and has no obligation the party.
He was a Democrat when he wanted the presidential nomination. I think among the Democratic party he caucuses with he could find plenty of people who support his views and need the money more than he does.
Bernie needs to fucking retire. His ego got in the way back then.
Can't Vermont vote in significantly younger Democratic Senators?
First of all, talk of the 2016 primary is off limits and second of all he isn't up for reelection until 2030. It's not like he can just retire right now, and if he resigns we'll have a Republican governor appoint his replacement.
I edited my comment.
Thank you, Vindman!
New: DCCC is adding five new candidates to Red to Blue, including Matt Dunlap in #ME02. Dunlap defeated a DCCC-backed candidate in their June primary.
The other additions:
- #FL13: Leela Gray
- #KY06: Zach Dembo
- #SC01: Nancy Lacore
- #VA05: Tom Perriello
The digest covered this exact content.
DNC narrows down list of 2028 convention sites:
- Boston
- Denver
- Philadelphia
🚫 Atlanta
🚫 Chicago
A final decision is expected later this year
Mentioning this from the policial angle of pissing off GA voters. supposedly Atl didnt have as much $$ pledged but frankly Boston would be a total wasted opportunity, Denver at least would send it back to the West for a change, and Philly is a swing state but we've been there done that. ATL deserves it by now.
Wow, those dueling AZ-Gov polls are something.
Why does the DCCC drag its feet on the Red to Blue endorsements? Are they privately negotiating something with the candidates, e.g. asking them to tone down certain policy positions or agree to do / not do certain things?
Quite a day for Democratic polls. Not everyone D is in the lead. Polls may vary in quality. When they are very close they may not mean much. And any one poll may not mean much. But thinking of them altogether, it is an encouraging batch of polls for Democrats.
Arkansas Senate: Shoffner (D) 47. Inc Cotton (R ) 44
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed (D).48. Rogers (R ) 47
Minnesota Senate Flanagan (D) 50. Tafoya (R ) 45
New Hampshire Senate Inc. Pappas (D) 48 Sununu (R ) 41
Arizona Governor Inc Hobbs (D) 39. Biggs (R ) 38
Michigan Governor Benson (D) 49. James (R ) 44
New Hampshire Governor Warmington (D) 38. Inc Ayotte 49
Arizona Attorney General Inc Mayes (D) 37 Peterson (R ) 34
Minnesota Sec of State Inc Simon (D) 41 June (R ) 34
Minnesota Auditor Filipovich (D) 39 Jensen (R ) 39
Arkansas 02. Jones 48 (D) Inc Hill (R ) 44
New Hampshire 02 Inc Goodlander (D) 41 Wiulliams (R ) 35
Those Hendrix polls always way overestimate Dems. I remember there were similar polls for AR-02 in 2020 from them that put the Dem basically even with the R incumbent and the incumbent won by double digits.
Wow, Wonderfull news on the polls today!!! Most surprising- the Arkansas senate race, Democrat winning over Tom Cotton, one of the worst in the senate.
The AR-SEN race is done by a trash pollster though. If Sabato or Cook Report had polled similar results in AR-SEN, that would be an eye-opener.
As an Arkansan who's been following the Shoffner campaign almost since it began I feel obligated to inform everybody that the Hendrix poll is utter shit. Like, worse than useless. This firm has consistently released polls overestimating Democratic support in the past - I remember being a bit fooled by a poll in 2024 that had Harris down by only 15 points. These polls are legitimately on the same level as those polls that were faked to have Hong up by 20 points, or those polls that showed Fishback almost tied with Donalds in Florida that were actually done *for* the Fishback campaign and didn't disclose it. If it's Hendrix, ignore it. Same with that other poll by that 2040 group.
That being said it's not as if the Arkansas senate race isn't worth looking at, even as just a barometer of how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans and not necessarily as a competitive race. I still think Arkansas is going to surprise us in some way this year, whether its a closer than expected result in the senate race or even a surprise Chris Jones victory in District 2, which is our least Republican district and also has a very strong Democratic candidate, who might be able to harness the backlash we're seeing from black voters nationwide and especially in the south. But while Shoffner being declared the winner on November 3rd would be an amazing birthday gift, until Emerson or Sienna or even biased pollsters that are less obviously shit like Data for Progress or Trafalgar publish polls showing similar numbers, don't get your hopes up too high. But if it's ever going to happen, now is when it would.