I attended this local civic engagement group in jersey city last night after work, nice enough people they help organize the no kings protest. However, the first forty minutes of the meeting focused on pressuring the NJ Senate to pass a state version of the VRA that would prevent the cracking of minority communities, explicitly making it impossible to gerrymander jersey effectively. The discourse was polite but out of a room of forty I was one of nine people pushing for Jersey to redraw, and most of the people in the room would consider themselves to be to my left--plus were all the type of good government people that I quote " believe any gerrymandering is bad gerrymandering."
I think early signs are positive after Jeffries' comments abot Dems who don't get on board.
Previous Dems in MD & NJ who were opposed or skeptical are on board suddenly. Hochul has voiced support in NY. IDK on CO, WA, OR, or IL.
The parh for each state isn't the same. IRD, constitution, legislation, referendum, etc. In MN, WI, MI, and maybe PA the first step is winning a trifecta.
I think for '28 we can compensate. Still winning the House in '26 is still doable, but got more difficult.
I agree. I'd say it's gone from a foregone conclusion to merely "extremely likely" that we win the house this year. Then we use the next two years to optimize our seats in WA, CO, OR, NY, NJ and MD, along with (hopefully new trifectas) in MI, WI, PA & MN. Hopefully we can also take full control of government in AZ and undo the commission there and put a Dem gerrymander in. I'd say there's also a very outside chance we could mid-decade redistrict in GA and NC (unlikely but possible we wind up with control of those governments). Once that's done, THEN we can focus on national redistricting reform.
What happens in PA and WI after 2030? Under the current legislative lines in both states, Dems are unlikely to hold the legislature in either state if they win the Presidency in 2028. In WI, they could also redraw the legislature to make it wave proof (it would be very ugly), but in PA, the legislature is drawn by a commission in which the SC appoints the tiebreaker (this is in the state constitution).
If Rs get trifectas in these two states in 2030(probably a greater than 50% chance in PA given that Dems will likely have the White House), we are going to be right back to Republican gerrymanders of US House seats and legislature in WI and House seats in PA. Given that one of the D aligned justices in PA just left the party, I wouldn’t count on being saved by the state Supreme Court again there, as I could see him basically pulling a Lieberman on us out of spite. In WI, Rs don’t even need to gerrymander to lock in the current 6R-2D map due to geography, which the liberal state Supreme Court actually dismissed a challenge to.
Dems need to be pushing for commissions in swing states where there could be an R trifecta after 2030.
If we gain a trifecta in swing states after 2026 elections, we should not just limit ourselves to redrawing the congressional maps. Why should we just stop there with mid decade redraws? We should even the playing field after running under 2 decades of GOP biased Republican drawn legislative maps in purple states. The legislative maps being redrawn must also be a top priority of newly elected Democrats in order to prevent Republicans from gaining back control for 2030.
It would set ourselves up nicely in a hopefully Dem presidential political midterm that would be tough for us. See how much they like running in purple states with a Lean/Likely D legislative redrawn map nearly impossible to overcome. The time for political payback is now and we’ll have the power to do it if our leaders are bold enough to take action to safeguard our party’s control for both now and likely the next decade after the census redraw.
In PA unfortunately it’s not possible to do that under the constitution due to the commission. In WI I don’t know if Dems would actually have the guts to do it for the legislature. But they either need to do that or create a commission for after 2030.
So then change the commission or state constitution in PA. Just because something isn’t possible now by law doesn’t mean we just give up and say we can’t do that. Power is meant to be used and we should start realizing that and using it to our benefit.
100%. Win control of those states and install D gerrymanders. THEN, we can put independent redistricting in place in those states before 2030 just in case we lose those trifectas. Same time, we can push for national redistricting reform.
I really don't get this "everything is doomed in 2030 if we win the WH in 2028." We all know the historical data, but things are different now. I think 2022 is a better bellwether than 1974 or 1986, to name 2. The electorate's different, we've had the trauma of 2 Trump terms, and who knows how awful his successors in the party will be? All of that could lead to successful mobilization campaigns for Dem candidates ("don't go backward" could be one slogan). And I know policy discussions are frowned upon here, but if we can get the new Dem President & Congress to pass things people like that make a difference in their lives, the backlash against the incumbent party in the WH might not materialize, especially since memories of Trump will be so recent.
2022 was helped greatly by the Dobbs decision. Even with that, we still ended up losing the House and failing to win key races like the state Supreme Court seats in NC. As for the “don’t go backward” slogan, Dems tried that in 2010 and got totally blown out.
The best thing we can do for 2030 is prepare as if it’s gonna be a bad year for us, which we failed to do for 2010 even though all the signs were there as early as early 2009.
Just to sense the Repubs left from these maps, seems like MN would axe Emmer, leave Stauber in the MN-08 and a Fischbach/Finstad primary in MN-07? And in NY I'm seeing Malliotakis/Lawler axed, Garbarino/LaLota primary in NY-13, the Stefanik replacement (probably Smullen) in NY-06 and Langworthy/Tenney primary in NY-04?
As a Minnesota resident, I really like this map, especially how you managed to keep basically all cities intact. All 6 districts even went blue in the 2022 Auditor's race which I think is the closest statewide race that has happened recently. However, I am wary of doing a gerrymander and not doing a commission. The state legislative chambers have gone back and forth many times, and Dems have only held both chambers once in the last decade, from 2023 to 2024. I'm nervous about what we could get after 2030, especially if we have a Democratic President. However, this may just be me being over-protective because I really want to keep at least 4 Dem seats in the state.
If there is a Dem president in 2030 (very likely), I put the chances of us having a trifecta for the 2031 in MN are quite low. It’s already very difficult for us to control both houses of the legislature at the same time (it’s happened only 8 out of the last 28 years). Remember that Republicans came with 8,000 voters of getting a trifecta here in 2010.
Agreed. So, we put a D gerrymander in for 2028 and 2030 while instituting a commission (assuming we don't have national redistricting reform) in place for 2032.
It isn't set in stone yet and since there is mandatory elections in October, all of this is just about timing. The ultra-orthodox parties think it favors them to have the election right before the high holidays (this year early September) but Bibi wants it after the anniversary of the 10-6 attacks and to give him an extra month to turn around the wars.
The collapse of this Likud-led coalition has been predicted, and reported, many times before. And yet at the last minute, the Haredi parties (or the far-right parties) that are making threats always refrain from following through on them. Why? Because they have nowhere else to turn – as Netanyahu is well aware.
PS. I’ll believe this latest news of “coalition collapse” if and when the Knesset is actually dissolved and new elections are scheduled.
Israel has near-universal conscription, both for men and most women, but the two Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), demand exemptions for draft-age ultra-orthodox men. Most Israeli voters (more than 70 percent) are vehemently against granting such exemptions.
Moreover, Israel’s High Court has demanded that the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) start conscripting a significant number of Haredi men. This has Netanyahu and his coalition twisting itself into a pretzel.
Another bone of contention is the massive subsidies for “full-time” Torah students in the Yeshivas, often combined with welfare support for their families. This is economically unsustainable. Ultra-orthodox families tend to have far more children than other sectors of society, something that is changing Israeli demographics.
(Edit: I’ve split my comment into two posts for clarity.)
I remember when Ariel Sharon was Prime Minister he was apart of the Likud Party but formed the Kadima Party later as a platform for his remaining years.
She was a major part of the problem with the Democratic Party of the past. There's no way she's going to be remotely useful in building the Democratic Party we need for the future, and in fact she would likely only be an obstacle to needed reform.
I mean, a record as DNC Chair of being all-in for Obama’s re-election in 2012, then making the Democratic Party’s agenda to run away from Obama in the 2014 midterms (which was idiotic and stupid to begin with) and then going all in to support Hillary Clinton in 2016 is not consistency.
Louisiana Republicans are freaking out because Democrats have been early-voting in much higher numbers in the Louisiana Senatorial primary, which also includes five proposed amendments to the state constitution. Of course, Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans, so they may make up that ground on Election Day.
I’ve always wondered what the reasoning behind Dems voting early more than Republicans is? I’ve only voting on Election Day once and it was long and tedious. Early voting seems so much easier
It is so much easier! Before President Trump (who votes by mail himself) started attacking early voting and vote by mail, Republicans were trying to convince their voters to “bank your vote”, because unforeseen events could arise on Election Day to keep someone from voting. Unfortunately, I’m afraid he’s discouraged a lot of voted with unwarranted allegations of fraud.
I agree. I've been voting by mail regularly since the 2018 midterms. And in NC, you get your general ballot after Labor Day if you've requested it early, so plenty of time to mark and return it.
Case in point, I actually caught Covid the week of the 2024 elections and stayed home from work. But I had already cast my ballot by mail a couple weeks prior, so I wasn't worried about not being able to vote in person.
My partner was blind, so he always took the opportunity to vote my mail. I could go on the Secretary of State’s website and check on the status of his ballot - it was received, it was counted, etc. I’m nervous about mail getting lost or delayed, so I prefer to vote early in person - especially since my polling place is the library about 2 miles from my house where I usually spend a couple of hours a day anyway!
All five of the amendments are supported by Landry. What better way to say FU to his illegal election canceling than voting all of them down on Saturday?
My sentiments exactly! And I voted for Trump’s “enemy”, Bill Cassidy, in the primary. I’m very upset with Cassidy, but the chance to piss off Trump and Landry was too much to resist. (Also signed the petition to recall Landry this week. Think he’ll get the message?)
FL-24: Rep. Frederica Wilson's absence has started retirement rumors. If she does, state Sen. Shev Jones and Miami-Dade County commissioner Oliver Gilbert would reportedly run to succeed her.
AL-1, AL-2: Army veteran Josh McKee will run in the 2nd instead of the 1st. He joins state Rep. Rhett Marques in the Republican primary.
Former Rep. Jerry Carl is the frontrunner against businessman Austin Sidwell in the 1st district. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is undecided on reelection in either seat.
I guess since his district isn't a layup anymore he didn't want to fight. Good. Justin Pearson will put up a more rigorous campaign than he would anyway.
Yeah, at this point the difference between Cohen and Pearson as our candidate is academic. Either one of them will lose due to the gerrymander. Since they aren't fighting it out in the primary we don't learn anything about the direction of the party either.
Axios: Democrats eye "hidden" Latino battlegrounds in 2026
The biggest immediate test is in Texas, where Republicans drew new maps assuming continued Latino gains. But GOP House seats are also at risk in California, New York, Colorado and Nevada.
New modeling from Democratic group Oath finds several GOP-drawn ‘safe’ districts could become competitive if recent Latino voting trends hold.
It feels frustrating when people decide to be dismissive about a possible electoral outcome. Polls can be wrong, yes, but they can be wrong in multiple ways.
So far, there have been a few polls showing a top two lockout being within the margin of error or actually happening--including the additional internal poll from Marni's campaign that was shared above. A lockout being in the margin of error, by definition, means the poll is saying it is possible. And the fact it is possible justifies some level of concern.
There have been two polls both by the same pollster in which the second R and top D were separated by a point at most. And in the third poll she was ahead of the other R by 7 points.
Maybe I wouldn't say it's impossible but it is highly unlikely to say the least.
The positive in both polls is that undecided is 20-25% and likely to break heavily to Democrats and to the one or two people think could win. Like governor, I believe a top two Republican lockout is unlikely.
We need to make sure after elections to keep the heat on California officials to undo the top two primary system and get rid of the redistricting commission until gerrymandering is outlawed nationally. As blue as California is, we shouldn't give Republicans an inch.
Definitely a pick your adventure, but I’m always taking a nonpartisan poll over an internal poll. I think Campa-Najjar will probably win late deciders from his military bio background and residual name ID from his previous runs. That could be the ballgame for who makes the 2nd slot.
Marni Von Wilpert's internal probably isn't credible, but I will say that if a lockout does happen here, it will be 100% her fault.
She does not live anywhere near the district and has no ties to it. She has also taken tons of money from special interests to boost her candidacy, and that's the only reason she has more than 2%. Her candidacy is absurd--there is no reason for it. The only bigger absurdity is Mike Schaefer running.
"Old Man Equalizer" Mike Schaefer is termed out from the Board of Equalization and has to run for something. He is a perennial candidate who has been running for offices since the 1960s (no joke). He had success as a young man, winning a seat on the San Diego City Council in 1965 to 1971, then not winning anything until his election to the Board of Eq in 2018. Mike is now 88 years young. I wouldn't vote for him, but he is an interesting story.
No idea, but since it’s a chamber of commerce commissioned poll, I think there’s at least a reasonable amount of credibility, though likely a bit of bias too.
True, but I don’t ever recall named Republicans underperforming the GCB in Florida in any poll. That’s why I felt it was noteworthy. The Democrats are pretty unknown, which explains the underperformance, but at the very least Moody (elected twice statewide), should not be underperforming GCB when each of her races has had her overperforming every other Republican on the ballot.
I lump Donalds in with her because of how prevalent he is known by Republican voters in the state as a black Trump MAGA GOP sycophant who’s on cable tv all the time in news media interviews. Both Republicans are more well known than either Democrat, so it raised my eyebrows when both party’s candidates underperformed GCB instead of just Democrats like I expected from the name ID gap between candidates.
I find it VERY hard to believe that we will lose the overall congressional ballot by 9 points in FL in this political environment. We lost it by about 5 points in each of 2018 & 2020. Any snapback to us in the Latino vote should put us pretty close to that figure.
Well, I mean, you’re kind of forgetting the 2 most recent elections, when Democrats lost by 20+ points in 2022 races and 2024 when Trump won the state by 13. This is already a snapback in Florida for us, it just doesn’t seem like it because of how far we fell off. I’ll believe Florida’s competitive only after the vote is certified where Democrats are within 5 points statewide.
True, but those losses weren't just because of the environment. Florida is just a terrible state for us these days and even in great environments, it'll still probably go red by healthy margins. As New York and Kansas's 2022 results show, waves hit some places hard and other places not at all.
Yes, but don't we think the electorate will look more like 2018/2020 than 2022 or (certainly) 2024. I think FL will be competitive this year, but I have no expectations of actually winning a statewide race. I could see us sneaking a win or two in majority Latino house seats though.
Yes and no. So here’s where I’m at. I don’t think Democrats are going to win Florida, I just don’t (unless it’s $6 per gallon of gas in November, then maybe?). However, my assumptions here, are that, we’re going to bounce back from the 2022 and 2024 election cycle. There’s no doubt in my mind about that.
A Republican is President, so Democratic turnout will be higher even before accounting for anything else. Adding in anything else (aka Trump economy) would double it. Which would take the 2024 result and halving our vote deficit so around R+7/8 (which coincidentally or not, you decide 😉) is exactly what polling in Florida so far shows..
Whether we get a further bounce back towards when moderate and conservative Republicans were voting for Biden as president only, that I very much have a hard time believing without evidence. Biden still lost Florida by 3 points anyways, so it’s hard to imagine Democrats getting closer than the above assumption when even more right wingers have moved there over these last 6 years.
The good news is we’re already outpolling 2022, which means the whole “Florida Democrats are dead” presumption is wrong. Whether it’s competitive enough (within 5) to warrant any of our time or resources, that’s where I think the debate lies and I’m firmly in the don’t spend 1 dime for statewide races. Downballot though in House seats? And legislative ones? Absolutely. This is the perfect year to gain some ground there.
If 1/3 of Latinos who voted for Trump vote for D's in this election, we could see some real surprises in places like FL and TX, plus I'd say it probably puts the NV and AZ Governor's races out of reach for Republicans.
Yeah with the Nevada economy struggling the way it is from international travellers boycotting anything to do with the US, I think Lombardo is toast this year and a trifecta is definitely in play in Arizona. Though I’d still look to Texas being more possible than Florida. Too many white MAGA retirees who flocked to the state under DeSantis. Would require a mega tsunami.
ALSO READ: 'Learn the hard way': Menacing messages flood anti-ICE activists after ominous warning
Republican and Arizona Senate President Warren Peterson wrote on X that he agreed with Trump, confirming the state would follow the federal demands.
"President Trump is 100% correct," Peterson wrote. "Late last week I received and complied with a federal grand jury subpoena for records relating to the Arizona State Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County. The FBI has the records. Any other report is fake news."
If the dems do not win the trifecta I will be shocked.
Probably won't be 1/3 in practice. Some will stay R, some will stay home, and some will go to us. If the true number of disapprovals from his 2024 hispanic voters is 33%, we might get 10-20% depending on how things shape up.
Still enough to make a huge difference in NV and AZ, but maybe not enough for FL/TX gov races.
The TX Supreme Court unanimously (Kyle Hawkins recused, but I think he wasn't on the court when it was filed, or maybe bc he was SG and was part of the filing) declines to remove state house minority leader Gene Wu for the quorum break last year.
In a separate opinion, Justice James Sullivan argued the justices could have thrown lawmakers out if they found they had abandoned their offices during a quorum break. But he agreed with Blacklock that they returned too quickly for the court to intervene in this case.
“Were it to happen yet again, I believe the next set of quorumbreakers had better be ready to pay us a visit,” Sullivan wrote.
Georgia has a special election for a senate district concurrent with their primaries, next Tuesday. Same day, Pennsylvania has a special for the state house. No idea on the partisanship of either.
June 2 is a special election for CA-01. It's an R+12 seat so we're likely looking at extent of overperformance rather than hoping for a win.
You can only post links.
You could create a google docs spreadsheet and then post the link here
Definitely excited to see it.
I attended this local civic engagement group in jersey city last night after work, nice enough people they help organize the no kings protest. However, the first forty minutes of the meeting focused on pressuring the NJ Senate to pass a state version of the VRA that would prevent the cracking of minority communities, explicitly making it impossible to gerrymander jersey effectively. The discourse was polite but out of a room of forty I was one of nine people pushing for Jersey to redraw, and most of the people in the room would consider themselves to be to my left--plus were all the type of good government people that I quote " believe any gerrymandering is bad gerrymandering."
The bill already cleared the assembly. https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/new-jersey-voting-rights-act/
we have a lot more work to convincing voters in states like jersey and colorado
Unfortunately I have to agree with this. I have attended several town board meetings and I am usually the only young person there. It’s really sad.
I think early signs are positive after Jeffries' comments abot Dems who don't get on board.
Previous Dems in MD & NJ who were opposed or skeptical are on board suddenly. Hochul has voiced support in NY. IDK on CO, WA, OR, or IL.
The parh for each state isn't the same. IRD, constitution, legislation, referendum, etc. In MN, WI, MI, and maybe PA the first step is winning a trifecta.
I think for '28 we can compensate. Still winning the House in '26 is still doable, but got more difficult.
Given the national environment I still place Dems as heavy heavy favorites to win the House.
I agree. I'd say it's gone from a foregone conclusion to merely "extremely likely" that we win the house this year. Then we use the next two years to optimize our seats in WA, CO, OR, NY, NJ and MD, along with (hopefully new trifectas) in MI, WI, PA & MN. Hopefully we can also take full control of government in AZ and undo the commission there and put a Dem gerrymander in. I'd say there's also a very outside chance we could mid-decade redistrict in GA and NC (unlikely but possible we wind up with control of those governments). Once that's done, THEN we can focus on national redistricting reform.
I'd say it's gone from a foregone conclusion to merely "extremely likely" that we win the house this year.
I disagree.
I still think it is a foregone conclusion.
What happens in PA and WI after 2030? Under the current legislative lines in both states, Dems are unlikely to hold the legislature in either state if they win the Presidency in 2028. In WI, they could also redraw the legislature to make it wave proof (it would be very ugly), but in PA, the legislature is drawn by a commission in which the SC appoints the tiebreaker (this is in the state constitution).
If Rs get trifectas in these two states in 2030(probably a greater than 50% chance in PA given that Dems will likely have the White House), we are going to be right back to Republican gerrymanders of US House seats and legislature in WI and House seats in PA. Given that one of the D aligned justices in PA just left the party, I wouldn’t count on being saved by the state Supreme Court again there, as I could see him basically pulling a Lieberman on us out of spite. In WI, Rs don’t even need to gerrymander to lock in the current 6R-2D map due to geography, which the liberal state Supreme Court actually dismissed a challenge to.
Dems need to be pushing for commissions in swing states where there could be an R trifecta after 2030.
If we gain a trifecta in swing states after 2026 elections, we should not just limit ourselves to redrawing the congressional maps. Why should we just stop there with mid decade redraws? We should even the playing field after running under 2 decades of GOP biased Republican drawn legislative maps in purple states. The legislative maps being redrawn must also be a top priority of newly elected Democrats in order to prevent Republicans from gaining back control for 2030.
It would set ourselves up nicely in a hopefully Dem presidential political midterm that would be tough for us. See how much they like running in purple states with a Lean/Likely D legislative redrawn map nearly impossible to overcome. The time for political payback is now and we’ll have the power to do it if our leaders are bold enough to take action to safeguard our party’s control for both now and likely the next decade after the census redraw.
In PA unfortunately it’s not possible to do that under the constitution due to the commission. In WI I don’t know if Dems would actually have the guts to do it for the legislature. But they either need to do that or create a commission for after 2030.
So then change the commission or state constitution in PA. Just because something isn’t possible now by law doesn’t mean we just give up and say we can’t do that. Power is meant to be used and we should start realizing that and using it to our benefit.
You’d need a statewide ballot vote to change the constitution for that in PA.
100%. Win control of those states and install D gerrymanders. THEN, we can put independent redistricting in place in those states before 2030 just in case we lose those trifectas. Same time, we can push for national redistricting reform.
I don't think Wecht is going to be a conservative judge on SCOPA. He merely became unaffiliated.
I really don't get this "everything is doomed in 2030 if we win the WH in 2028." We all know the historical data, but things are different now. I think 2022 is a better bellwether than 1974 or 1986, to name 2. The electorate's different, we've had the trauma of 2 Trump terms, and who knows how awful his successors in the party will be? All of that could lead to successful mobilization campaigns for Dem candidates ("don't go backward" could be one slogan). And I know policy discussions are frowned upon here, but if we can get the new Dem President & Congress to pass things people like that make a difference in their lives, the backlash against the incumbent party in the WH might not materialize, especially since memories of Trump will be so recent.
2022 was helped greatly by the Dobbs decision. Even with that, we still ended up losing the House and failing to win key races like the state Supreme Court seats in NC. As for the “don’t go backward” slogan, Dems tried that in 2010 and got totally blown out.
The best thing we can do for 2030 is prepare as if it’s gonna be a bad year for us, which we failed to do for 2010 even though all the signs were there as early as early 2009.
That New York map is amazing!
Agreed. The LI R district is a work of art...
Just to sense the Repubs left from these maps, seems like MN would axe Emmer, leave Stauber in the MN-08 and a Fischbach/Finstad primary in MN-07? And in NY I'm seeing Malliotakis/Lawler axed, Garbarino/LaLota primary in NY-13, the Stefanik replacement (probably Smullen) in NY-06 and Langworthy/Tenney primary in NY-04?
I don't think he'd get that 8th to himself, since I could see Emmer or Fischbach booting him out of there.
I think Constantino might win over Smullen, unfortunately.
As a Minnesota resident, I really like this map, especially how you managed to keep basically all cities intact. All 6 districts even went blue in the 2022 Auditor's race which I think is the closest statewide race that has happened recently. However, I am wary of doing a gerrymander and not doing a commission. The state legislative chambers have gone back and forth many times, and Dems have only held both chambers once in the last decade, from 2023 to 2024. I'm nervous about what we could get after 2030, especially if we have a Democratic President. However, this may just be me being over-protective because I really want to keep at least 4 Dem seats in the state.
If there is a Dem president in 2030 (very likely), I put the chances of us having a trifecta for the 2031 in MN are quite low. It’s already very difficult for us to control both houses of the legislature at the same time (it’s happened only 8 out of the last 28 years). Remember that Republicans came with 8,000 voters of getting a trifecta here in 2010.
Agreed. So, we put a D gerrymander in for 2028 and 2030 while instituting a commission (assuming we don't have national redistricting reform) in place for 2032.
5D-2R-1S map of Wisconsin.
What is the S mean in 1S?
Finally
Are you sure it's collapsed? I'm not seeing anything on BBC News.
I saw a Times of Israel article that said it had collapsed but a dissolve date hadn't been set.
Thanks for explaining.
Julius, this may be the article you referred to:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredi-factions-back-dissolving-knesset-increasing-chance-for-early-elections/
It was not. This was the one.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/1st-vote-on-bill-to-dissolve-knesset-likely-next-week-as-opposition-coalition-jockey-ahead-of-elections/
It isn't set in stone yet and since there is mandatory elections in October, all of this is just about timing. The ultra-orthodox parties think it favors them to have the election right before the high holidays (this year early September) but Bibi wants it after the anniversary of the 10-6 attacks and to give him an extra month to turn around the wars.
The collapse of this Likud-led coalition has been predicted, and reported, many times before. And yet at the last minute, the Haredi parties (or the far-right parties) that are making threats always refrain from following through on them. Why? Because they have nowhere else to turn – as Netanyahu is well aware.
PS. I’ll believe this latest news of “coalition collapse” if and when the Knesset is actually dissolved and new elections are scheduled.
What is the crux of the matter?
Israel has near-universal conscription, both for men and most women, but the two Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), demand exemptions for draft-age ultra-orthodox men. Most Israeli voters (more than 70 percent) are vehemently against granting such exemptions.
Moreover, Israel’s High Court has demanded that the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) start conscripting a significant number of Haredi men. This has Netanyahu and his coalition twisting itself into a pretzel.
Another bone of contention is the massive subsidies for “full-time” Torah students in the Yeshivas, often combined with welfare support for their families. This is economically unsustainable. Ultra-orthodox families tend to have far more children than other sectors of society, something that is changing Israeli demographics.
(Edit: I’ve split my comment into two posts for clarity.)
I remember when Ariel Sharon was Prime Minister he was apart of the Likud Party but formed the Kadima Party later as a platform for his remaining years.
Does anyone want her to run?
She was a major part of the problem with the Democratic Party of the past. There's no way she's going to be remotely useful in building the Democratic Party we need for the future, and in fact she would likely only be an obstacle to needed reform.
I mean, a record as DNC Chair of being all-in for Obama’s re-election in 2012, then making the Democratic Party’s agenda to run away from Obama in the 2014 midterms (which was idiotic and stupid to begin with) and then going all in to support Hillary Clinton in 2016 is not consistency.
Louisiana Republicans are freaking out because Democrats have been early-voting in much higher numbers in the Louisiana Senatorial primary, which also includes five proposed amendments to the state constitution. Of course, Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans, so they may make up that ground on Election Day.
I’ve always wondered what the reasoning behind Dems voting early more than Republicans is? I’ve only voting on Election Day once and it was long and tedious. Early voting seems so much easier
It is so much easier! Before President Trump (who votes by mail himself) started attacking early voting and vote by mail, Republicans were trying to convince their voters to “bank your vote”, because unforeseen events could arise on Election Day to keep someone from voting. Unfortunately, I’m afraid he’s discouraged a lot of voted with unwarranted allegations of fraud.
I agree. I've been voting by mail regularly since the 2018 midterms. And in NC, you get your general ballot after Labor Day if you've requested it early, so plenty of time to mark and return it.
Case in point, I actually caught Covid the week of the 2024 elections and stayed home from work. But I had already cast my ballot by mail a couple weeks prior, so I wasn't worried about not being able to vote in person.
My partner was blind, so he always took the opportunity to vote my mail. I could go on the Secretary of State’s website and check on the status of his ballot - it was received, it was counted, etc. I’m nervous about mail getting lost or delayed, so I prefer to vote early in person - especially since my polling place is the library about 2 miles from my house where I usually spend a couple of hours a day anyway!
I might drop off my ballot in person this fall at my county Board of Elections office if Trump is still six feet above ground.
Since NC Republicans refuse to do ballot drop boxes, so we either mail or hand deliver our ballots (or drop them off at an early voting site).
All five of the amendments are supported by Landry. What better way to say FU to his illegal election canceling than voting all of them down on Saturday?
My sentiments exactly! And I voted for Trump’s “enemy”, Bill Cassidy, in the primary. I’m very upset with Cassidy, but the chance to piss off Trump and Landry was too much to resist. (Also signed the petition to recall Landry this week. Think he’ll get the message?)
Did you sign the recall petition for Liz Murrell too?
They told me they had just filed for it that morning and didn’t have the paperwork yet, but I’ll go back and sign it when it’s available.
https://floridianpress.com/2026/05/kevin-steele-runs-for-congress-against-democratic-rep-kathy-castor-in-floridas-14th-district/
FL-14: Republican state Rep. Kevin Steele is in, challenging Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor.
https://www.notus.org/democrats/frederica-wilson-house-seat
FL-24: Rep. Frederica Wilson's absence has started retirement rumors. If she does, state Sen. Shev Jones and Miami-Dade County commissioner Oliver Gilbert would reportedly run to succeed her.
www.al.com/news/2026/05/the-bizarre-political-limbo-facing-alabama-congressional-candidates-in-a-race-that-will-be-voided.html%3foutputType=amp
AL-1, AL-2: Army veteran Josh McKee will run in the 2nd instead of the 1st. He joins state Rep. Rhett Marques in the Republican primary.
Former Rep. Jerry Carl is the frontrunner against businessman Austin Sidwell in the 1st district. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is undecided on reelection in either seat.
DWS should be run out of Congress and out of Florida politics. She seems intent on conceding to Republicans and has seemed so since W won reelection.
Cohen D-TN 9 not going for re election https://x.com/LeahVredenbregt/status/2055302845113446903?s=20
Oh, wow.
I guess since his district isn't a layup anymore he didn't want to fight. Good. Justin Pearson will put up a more rigorous campaign than he would anyway.
You mean Pearson?
Yes. Pearson.
If Pearson can at least get the district down to single digits that would be a huge moral win for Democrats even if he doesn't actually get the seat.
It doesn't matter - either one of them will get smoked in the new district.
Yeah, at this point the difference between Cohen and Pearson as our candidate is academic. Either one of them will lose due to the gerrymander. Since they aren't fighting it out in the primary we don't learn anything about the direction of the party either.
Districts mentioned: CA23, CA40, NY02, TX15, TX23, TX34
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2055242119883722756
Axios: Democrats eye "hidden" Latino battlegrounds in 2026
The biggest immediate test is in Texas, where Republicans drew new maps assuming continued Latino gains. But GOP House seats are also at risk in California, New York, Colorado and Nevada.
New modeling from Democratic group Oath finds several GOP-drawn ‘safe’ districts could become competitive if recent Latino voting trends hold.
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/15/democrats-latino-voters-2026
Republicans bet big on Latino voters in redistricted Texas - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/31/republicans-texas-redistricting-latino-voters-00485890
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2055278974058573992
SurveyUSA poll | 5/8-5/14
US House 2026 | California 48th congressional district jungle primary
(Harris +3 | 2024)
(Top two advance to November)
🟥Jim Desmond 29%
🟥Kevin Patrick O'Neil 10%
🟦Ammar Campa-Najjar 9%
🟦Marni Von Wilpert 9%
🟦Brandon Riker 6%
🟦Abel Chavez 4%
🟦Corinna Contreras 3%
🟦Mike Schaefer 3%
🟦Eric Shaw 2%
🟦Ferguson Porter 1%
⬜️Luis F. Reyna 1%
🟦Stephen Clemons 0%
Undecided 25%
Link to poll: https://surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx
Democrats are not going to get locked out of this seat. Undecideds are clearly dem-leaning and will pull O'Neil out of the top two entirely.
You have to assume that a large chunk of the Undecideds will end up not voting. The risk is real enough that people should be concerned.
The risk is not real and people are panicking for no reason, like with the governor’s race.
SurveyUSA is not a reliable pollster.
It feels frustrating when people decide to be dismissive about a possible electoral outcome. Polls can be wrong, yes, but they can be wrong in multiple ways.
So far, there have been a few polls showing a top two lockout being within the margin of error or actually happening--including the additional internal poll from Marni's campaign that was shared above. A lockout being in the margin of error, by definition, means the poll is saying it is possible. And the fact it is possible justifies some level of concern.
So please, do not be so dismissive. Thanks.
There have been two polls both by the same pollster in which the second R and top D were separated by a point at most. And in the third poll she was ahead of the other R by 7 points.
Maybe I wouldn't say it's impossible but it is highly unlikely to say the least.
Since when? They're as reliable as anyone else
Also, it's a sample of likely voters. So I expect the undecideds to show up and come through for the Dems.
And the GOP leads the combined vote by 2 points right now in that poll, which is something I'm highly doubtful will happen.
Poll is scary as it shows how we could be locked out of the top-two in a seat we should win. Here is a bit brighter poll:
Internal from von Wilpert conducted by Tulchin Research 4/27-30:
Desmond: 27%
von Wilpert: 16%
Campa-Najjar: 13%
O'Neil: 9%
Riker: 8%
Undecided: 20%
https://punchbowl.news/ca-48-poll-memo-5-26-final/
The positive in both polls is that undecided is 20-25% and likely to break heavily to Democrats and to the one or two people think could win. Like governor, I believe a top two Republican lockout is unlikely.
We need to make sure after elections to keep the heat on California officials to undo the top two primary system and get rid of the redistricting commission until gerrymandering is outlawed nationally. As blue as California is, we shouldn't give Republicans an inch.
Additionally, I could see Dems intervene to ensure GOP voters consolidate around Desmond.
Except there isn't much time, as over a week's worth of vote is already in the hopper.
I mailed my ballot on Wednesday morning.
Definitely a pick your adventure, but I’m always taking a nonpartisan poll over an internal poll. I think Campa-Najjar will probably win late deciders from his military bio background and residual name ID from his previous runs. That could be the ballgame for who makes the 2nd slot.
Difference is O'Neil is decisively away from the second round in the internal while barely in it in the nonpartisan one.
If the answer is somewhere in the middle then he's not at risk of making the general.
Frankly, I would not rely too much on either poll. One is internal but the other is Survey USA which is mediocre. But they are what we have.
Marni Von Wilpert's internal probably isn't credible, but I will say that if a lockout does happen here, it will be 100% her fault.
She does not live anywhere near the district and has no ties to it. She has also taken tons of money from special interests to boost her candidacy, and that's the only reason she has more than 2%. Her candidacy is absurd--there is no reason for it. The only bigger absurdity is Mike Schaefer running.
"Old Man Equalizer" Mike Schaefer is termed out from the Board of Equalization and has to run for something. He is a perennial candidate who has been running for offices since the 1960s (no joke). He had success as a young man, winning a seat on the San Diego City Council in 1965 to 1971, then not winning anything until his election to the Board of Eq in 2018. Mike is now 88 years young. I wouldn't vote for him, but he is an interesting story.
I think it’s very interesting (though well within the moe and could just be noise) that both named Republicans underperform the GCB in Florida.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2055304262465241483
Cherry Communications poll | 5/1-5/9 LV
Florida statewide races 2026
Governor
🟥Byron Donalds 47%
🟦David Jolly 39%
—
🟥Byron Donalds 48%
🟦Jerry Demings 39%
——
US Senate
🟥Ashley Moody 48% (incumbent)
🟦Alexander Vindman 40%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟥Republican 49%
🟦Democratic 42%
Link to poll: https://flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-statewide-poll-shows-ashley-moody-byron-donalds-leading-potential-democratic-opponents-in-november-ballot-test/
Coming from the FL Chamber of Commerce too.
Which leans Republican, so there is some bias to it.
Yep, exactly.
Haven't heard of Cherry Communications before, they any good?
No idea, but since it’s a chamber of commerce commissioned poll, I think there’s at least a reasonable amount of credibility, though likely a bit of bias too.
I mean, so do all the named Democrats to the point where the margins are larger in the named races than generic v generic. I wouldn't make much of it.
True, but I don’t ever recall named Republicans underperforming the GCB in Florida in any poll. That’s why I felt it was noteworthy. The Democrats are pretty unknown, which explains the underperformance, but at the very least Moody (elected twice statewide), should not be underperforming GCB when each of her races has had her overperforming every other Republican on the ballot.
I lump Donalds in with her because of how prevalent he is known by Republican voters in the state as a black Trump MAGA GOP sycophant who’s on cable tv all the time in news media interviews. Both Republicans are more well known than either Democrat, so it raised my eyebrows when both party’s candidates underperformed GCB instead of just Democrats like I expected from the name ID gap between candidates.
I find it VERY hard to believe that we will lose the overall congressional ballot by 9 points in FL in this political environment. We lost it by about 5 points in each of 2018 & 2020. Any snapback to us in the Latino vote should put us pretty close to that figure.
Well, I mean, you’re kind of forgetting the 2 most recent elections, when Democrats lost by 20+ points in 2022 races and 2024 when Trump won the state by 13. This is already a snapback in Florida for us, it just doesn’t seem like it because of how far we fell off. I’ll believe Florida’s competitive only after the vote is certified where Democrats are within 5 points statewide.
A lot of the national conditions that allowed the GOP to win Florida by those margins may not apply for 2026 anymore.
True, but those losses weren't just because of the environment. Florida is just a terrible state for us these days and even in great environments, it'll still probably go red by healthy margins. As New York and Kansas's 2022 results show, waves hit some places hard and other places not at all.
Yes, but don't we think the electorate will look more like 2018/2020 than 2022 or (certainly) 2024. I think FL will be competitive this year, but I have no expectations of actually winning a statewide race. I could see us sneaking a win or two in majority Latino house seats though.
Yes and no. So here’s where I’m at. I don’t think Democrats are going to win Florida, I just don’t (unless it’s $6 per gallon of gas in November, then maybe?). However, my assumptions here, are that, we’re going to bounce back from the 2022 and 2024 election cycle. There’s no doubt in my mind about that.
A Republican is President, so Democratic turnout will be higher even before accounting for anything else. Adding in anything else (aka Trump economy) would double it. Which would take the 2024 result and halving our vote deficit so around R+7/8 (which coincidentally or not, you decide 😉) is exactly what polling in Florida so far shows..
Whether we get a further bounce back towards when moderate and conservative Republicans were voting for Biden as president only, that I very much have a hard time believing without evidence. Biden still lost Florida by 3 points anyways, so it’s hard to imagine Democrats getting closer than the above assumption when even more right wingers have moved there over these last 6 years.
The good news is we’re already outpolling 2022, which means the whole “Florida Democrats are dead” presumption is wrong. Whether it’s competitive enough (within 5) to warrant any of our time or resources, that’s where I think the debate lies and I’m firmly in the don’t spend 1 dime for statewide races. Downballot though in House seats? And legislative ones? Absolutely. This is the perfect year to gain some ground there.
Gold standard poll.
-54 approval among Hispanics/Latinos.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2055314362944942469
Pew Research poll | 4/20-4/26
President Trump approval (among Hispanics)
❌Disapprove 76%
✅Approve 22%
----
President Trump approval (among 2024 Hispanic Trump voters)
✅Approve 66%
❌Disapprove 32%
If 1/3 of Latinos who voted for Trump vote for D's in this election, we could see some real surprises in places like FL and TX, plus I'd say it probably puts the NV and AZ Governor's races out of reach for Republicans.
Yeah with the Nevada economy struggling the way it is from international travellers boycotting anything to do with the US, I think Lombardo is toast this year and a trifecta is definitely in play in Arizona. Though I’d still look to Texas being more possible than Florida. Too many white MAGA retirees who flocked to the state under DeSantis. Would require a mega tsunami.
Here is NV.
GOP governor fears voter wrath for tying himself to Trump: 'I am concerned'
https://www.rawstory.com/joe-lombardo-2676833933/
Joe Lombardo Claims Trump’s “Doing a Fantastic Job” While Costs Soar Across Nevada
https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/joe-lombardo-claims-trumps-doing-a-fantastic-job-while-costs-soar-across-nevada/
GOP governor blasts 'Hands Off' protesters who he says have their 'hands out'
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-protests-2671730330/
Nevada GOP governor vetoes voter ID bill that he pushed for in a deal with Democrats
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nevada-gop-governor-vetoes-voter-010844606.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Nevada Gov. Lombardo vetoes bills to require voter ID and open primaries to unaffiliated voters
https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/06/16/nevada-gov-lombardo-vetoes-bills-to-require-voter-id-and-open-primaries-to-unaffiliated-voters/
Here is AZ
Nearly Half of Arizona’s SNAP Participants Have Lost Benefits — ProPublica
https://www.propublica.org/article/arizona-snap-benefits-trump-legislation
Arizona’s drop in SNAP participation signals potential nationwide impact of Trump legislation
https://www.salon.com/2026/04/09/arizonas-drop-in-snap-participation-signals-potential-nationwide-impact-of-trump-legislation-partner/
Arizona’s SNAP Participation Is Plummeting — Far More Than Anticipated — as It Implements Megabill
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/arizonas-snap-participation-is-plummeting-far-more-than-anticipated-as-it-implements-megabill
Arizona Republicans relaunch efforts to split Maricopa County
https://courthousenews.com/arizona-republicans-relaunch-efforts-to-split-maricopa-county/
Battleground state leaves experts aghast as it 'hands over keys to election' to Trump
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-arizona-2675930480/
ALSO READ: 'Learn the hard way': Menacing messages flood anti-ICE activists after ominous warning
Republican and Arizona Senate President Warren Peterson wrote on X that he agreed with Trump, confirming the state would follow the federal demands.
"President Trump is 100% correct," Peterson wrote. "Late last week I received and complied with a federal grand jury subpoena for records relating to the Arizona State Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County. The FBI has the records. Any other report is fake news."
If the dems do not win the trifecta I will be shocked.
Probably won't be 1/3 in practice. Some will stay R, some will stay home, and some will go to us. If the true number of disapprovals from his 2024 hispanic voters is 33%, we might get 10-20% depending on how things shape up.
Still enough to make a huge difference in NV and AZ, but maybe not enough for FL/TX gov races.
Oh for sure - no way we get all of the Trump disapprovers.
Republicans bet big on Latino voters in redistricted Texas
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/31/republicans-texas-redistricting-latino-voters-00485890
The TX Supreme Court unanimously (Kyle Hawkins recused, but I think he wasn't on the court when it was filed, or maybe bc he was SG and was part of the filing) declines to remove state house minority leader Gene Wu for the quorum break last year.
https://archive.ph/syiMc
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/gene-wu-abbott-supreme-court-22260816.php
In a separate opinion, Justice James Sullivan argued the justices could have thrown lawmakers out if they found they had abandoned their offices during a quorum break. But he agreed with Blacklock that they returned too quickly for the court to intervene in this case.
“Were it to happen yet again, I believe the next set of quorumbreakers had better be ready to pay us a visit,” Sullivan wrote.
Oh look one of them threatening the true dems.
Insert Bubbanomics reaction.
Was -2 in 2018.
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2055022002612634071
Trump Approval Polling:
Disapprove: 56%
Approve: 42%
Rasmussen / May 13, 2026
(Republican Pollster)
Georgia has a special election for a senate district concurrent with their primaries, next Tuesday. Same day, Pennsylvania has a special for the state house. No idea on the partisanship of either.
June 2 is a special election for CA-01. It's an R+12 seat so we're likely looking at extent of overperformance rather than hoping for a win.
A win is possible, considering the unlikely flips we've seen.