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ArcticStones's avatar

This Morning Digest’s phrasing, underscoring Colyer’s various stages of "announcement", made me chuckle:

"Former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer, who all but announced his campaign to reclaim his old job several days ago, has now announced his campaign to reclaim his old job. We detailed Colyer's political career when he issued his pre-announcement…"

Meanwhile, I guess we need a special calendar to plot precisely/roughly when the various candidates or almost-candidates have announced they’ll be "making up their minds".

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ArcticStones's avatar

"FLOOD THE ZONE" – INCOMING SEWAGE

“What happens between now and Labor Day really defines — more than even the first 100 days of flood-the-zone — not just Trump’s second term, but Trump’s legacy.

“It’s stopping the Third World War. It’s laying out his definitive economic and financial plan, how we’re going to finance it. Plus it’s his assault on the ‘Deep State’ and the redefinition of the Article II powers. And these are all converging into one huge fucking fight.”

– Steve Bannon, Felon and Autocracy Promoter

https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/16/trumps-second-hundred-days-matter-more/

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Michael Romero's avatar

re: The NJ GOP primary. Ciattarelli was always the likely winner, especially when he was so close to defeating Murphy in 2021. The Trump endorsement likely means he will have to tack further to the right in the general than a lot of general election voters will like in NJ. I don't see how he didn't get that endorsement without agreeing to mimic Trump's policies on immigration and "DEI".

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MPC's avatar
May 16Edited

I hope Respect MO Voters have the energy to get that ballot initiative preventing legislators from repealing voter passed amendments and preventing them from writing "ballot candy" titles on the ballot next year, cause MO Rs are awful. Ohio Rs are pretty bad and talked about how they were going to repeal Issue 1 after it passed in 2023-- but they didn't. The margin of voters who voted to protect women's right there was over 55%.

Missouri Republicans are all, "we're going to reverse the will of the people, majority rule be damned." Maybe having that $15/hr and paid family leave initiative revoked will get rural GOP voters to stop voting for them.

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michaelflutist's avatar

To your last sentence: I really doubt it. They'll keep voting Republican.

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James Trout's avatar

Yep. Because "drag time story hour" and "woke" and whatever.

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michaelflutist's avatar

And "Christianity."

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Jay's avatar

It’s interesting, Republicans seemed to be willing to negotiate on the minimum wage and paid leave, so Dems acted in good faith. But then they just voted to totally repeal it and then immediately ended the legislative session. So they were just lying about their intentions. I hope the Dems drag their feet on everything next session. It’s clear you can’t try negotiating with the Jeff City Republicans at this point.

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Justin Gibson's avatar

The MOGOP are a disgrace to Missouri and common sense.

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Paleo's avatar

Starmer’s effort to be reform-lite does not appear to be working out too well for Labour.

65% of Britons have an unfavorable view of Labour, the most since YouGov began asking the question in June 2017. Starmer himself has a -46 favorability. Conservatives are even worse while Reform is a net 20 points better. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats have the best favorability ratings.

https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lpbk6hp6r22u

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PollJunkie's avatar

At this point without an economic miracle or proportional mixed member representation, a Reform government seems guaranteed. Reform is promising pie in the sky atm and maybe Brits need to live under 5 years of reform.

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michaelflutist's avatar

That'll be horrible for minorities!

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FeingoldFan's avatar

Tbf, a lot can change in 4 years, it’s way too early to write anything off yet.

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ehstronghold's avatar

Yes, Starmer still has 4+ years to turn the economy around to the point the average voter feels them. The same thing happened to David Cameron in 2015 who looked DOA after austerity.

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Henrik's avatar

That’s a common theme with modern right-populist parties; even more than Reaganism it’s based on emotive magical thinking but voters seem to prefer indulging it than facing hard realities

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

While they shamelessly tell everyone else that they're weak, soft, not in touch with hard realities etc.

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Henrik's avatar

The whole “hard times breed strong men” canard online right influencers harp on is hilarious to me because those are the softest, whiniest bitches of all time. Their job is literally to pontificate into an iPhone camera

The cultural indulgence vapid influencers have been given is, so far, the country’s downfall in more ways than just politics

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stevk's avatar

This exactly. I don't want to hear a Republican call anyone a "snowflake" ever again. They are the snowflakiest snowflakes whoever snowflaked...

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PollJunkie's avatar

Hard times create strong men,

Strong men create good times

Good times create weak men and pathetic losers like the MAGA movement.

Weak men create hard times.

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Techno00's avatar

Trump's "big, beautiful bill" lost a committee vote 16-21.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/16/house-budget-committee-reconciliation-vote-trump

Question: how likely is it that Trump will now threaten primary challenges to the no votes? He does not seem particularly pleased with this result.

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Justin Gibson's avatar

When Trump loses, America wins.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Republicans often fall in line eventually.

But they're also facing a midterm that looks increasingly hostile. Republicans in marginal seats don't want to take the heat for voting for something big enough to get headlines. For incumbents who have been around long enough it's also not trivial for them to be unseated even with a primary opponent endorsed by the head of their party.

We will face similar struggles with our own caucus next time we hold power. Even if we can get large enough house majorities to avoid it, we'll see it from the senate.

Ultimately they will likely give up on a few things or pare some things back and it'll still be 95% as horrible but manage to pass. If we're really really lucky they'll get stuck with infighting for a while before moving on, but that is not particularly likely.

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Mark's avatar

But the critics all seem to be Freedom Caucus people opposing the "big, beautiful bill" from the right. I don't see any indication of resistance from Republicans who would be nervous about public opinion.

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Samuel Sero's avatar

Yep. I think the Freedom Caucus smells blood in the water with Trump. They are in super red districts, especially thanks to gerrymandering. Sure, Trump could threaten them with a primary challenger but the fact that Trump couldn't even convince Kemp and Sununu to run for the Senate, even when he told he was willing to forgive them and back them for not being on the Trump train all the way, proves that to at least guys like Chip Roy that Trump needs them more than they need him going into next year. Weirdos like Thomas Massie weren't going to be the real problem for Johnson and his majority. I think the Freedom Caucus was bidding their time for when Trump would be damaged enough to not have to always cave to him.

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Zero Cool's avatar

At this point, I am going to say RIP Freedom Caucus as the caucus has no further meaning.

The Freedom Caucus used to have meaning during the rise of the Tea Party. Now with Trump and his loyalists, they are RINOs to them.

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Zero Cool's avatar

You never know with Trump. Now that he’s in office for a 2nd term as POTUS, as long as he helps elect Democrats more power to him!

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/05/16/mike-lawler-salt-new-york-republicans-00352900

"'No Way to Run a Two-Car Parade Let Alone the House': Coastal Republicans express anger at red-state leaders who won’t help them with SALT deductions."

Saw this article this morning about divisions in the House GOP over the SALT cap. The article is essentially highlighting the class divisions in the GOP between high-income swing-district reps in states like New York and California where raising the SALT cap is a major priority, and rural low-income safe-seat reps where it isn't as much of a concern (at least that's what the article seems to imply). Curious to hear people's thoughts, and I wonder if it mirrors similar divides in the Democratic party

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dragonfire5004's avatar

They will cave like they always do, as Martin succinctly put in the article, so I don’t have much hope, but when they get rail roaded again like in 2017, that leaves all blue state Republicans far more likely to lose their seats, which is a good thing in the end.

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Paleo's avatar

The genesis of the SALT limitation was an effort by the right to punish states with income taxes, particularly those with progressive rates. Their hope was that this would encourage voters in those states to back cutting or repealing those taxes. It hasn’t really worked out that way because Republicans in those states just view it as an increase in taxes by limiting deductions. The wealthy do pay more as a result, but the way to increase taxes on the wealthy is by raising the top rates, not by limiting one deduction.

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John Carr's avatar

And if they limited the deduction for individuals, why didn’t they do it for corporations and businesses?

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Paleo's avatar

Well, corporations are taxed differently, on both the state and federal level. So I’m not really sure whether they’re entitled to a state and local tax deduction.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Also, why should Blue coastal states pay even more when a higher share of federal money goes to Alabama or West Virginia through earmarks and welfare?

Alabama would be nothing today without earmarks which Richard Shelby got for them. They hate everything about about our worldview while benefiting from it and not letting us even enact universal healthcare.

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Tigercourse's avatar

I'm pretty sure the left left of the party still shares the a Trump view on this. I don't know where she is now but AOC favored limiting the deduction in the past.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Limiting but I believe not eliminating it.

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Jeff Singer's avatar

Yost hasn't endorsed so far. "A spokesperson for Yost declined to say whether he'll endorse Ramaswamy." https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/16/dave-yost-drops-out-of-ohio-governors-race/80306921007/

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Techno00's avatar

Thanks, must’ve missed that. Updated accordingly.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Did Harry Enten make up a poll in his head? What is this: https://nitter.poast.org/ForecasterEnten/status/1923363920711983372#m

The poll he references has Trump at 44/52: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reutersipsos-issues-survey-may-2025

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Samuel Sero's avatar

Watching the video, Enten makes a super lazy analysis here. Comparing his first and second term numbers is a bit tricky considering his first and second terms weren't consecutive. People weren't too worried about the economy in 2017 as they are now. What they were more worried about what his erratic behavior, the fate of the ACA and the early stages of the Russia investigation. Enten points out two different measurements for people's concerns about the economy. In the April poll, he uses J.P. Morgan which said that there was a 60% chance of a recession. In the May poll, they use Goldman Sachs to measure the economy and show 45% of folks are concerned about a recession. I'm not sure why the poll used a different Wall Street indicator in two different polls. I'm not familiar with how they choose a different financial institution to measure consumer sentiment and how often. But, Wall Street is still overreacting about the 90 day tariff pause because they want investors to feel good about the market. Barclays now says that there risk of recession rate is now at 35% whereas Jamie Dimon is still saying that recession is on the table plus, ABC News reported that consumer sentiment on the economy has worsened despite Trump pulling back on tariffs.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/consumer-sentiment-worsens-despite-trumps-rollback-tariffs-survey/story?id=121869699

It was a vibes economy under Biden because every bit of positive economic news, news outlets and financial outfits were always trying to spin it as a negative and kept predicting a recession was coming. It's still a vibes economy under Trump but with real evidence that prices are going back up. Wal-Mart and Mattel are doing it and other retailers will do it too because they'll exhaust their inventory in 90 days because folks are going to buy stuff in huge bulks to avoid having to spend more on them later. Now it seems like the same Wall Street and financial firms and news outlets who all called Trump's bluff on tariff threats and are aching for tax cuts and lower interest rates are now trying to act like a 90 day pause means that Trump is going to give up on tariff threats. He isn't. He'll keep using them to get companies like Apple and Amazon and the auto industry to beg for exceptions in exchange for some something. Tariffs are Trump's go to weapon for extortion. He doesn't care if he crashed the economy as long as he gets what he wants. The billionaire crowd knew he was a stupid business man and a con artist but stuck with him for tax cuts and lower interest rates and in Big Tech's case, to get the FTC off their backs. In Big Media's case, it's to get him to approved of more M&As and deregulation. Wall Street knows that uncertainty in the market causes consumer sentiment and investors to sour and hold back their money. The damage is done and the country is way more uncertain about the economy's future that it was under Biden. You also have threats to health care and mass deportations hurting business and farmers getting into people's minds. Trump's second term taught us so far that the most delusional aspect of his base wasn't the folks who didn't pay attention to the news, they at least caught on faster that they fucked up voting for him. It was the "serious people" on Wall Street and corporate America. They look like idiots for betting big on Trump and causing a vibes economy feeling under Biden and now they are having trouble undoing that narrative.

Enten damn well knows that Trump's approval and the economic outlook by the American people is way more complex than he makes it out to be but he's a cable news talking head and I'm sure someone is telling him to be very selective about what pieces of info he's disclosing in his analysis. Sorry if I'm going into tin foil hat territory but that's best explanation I can come up with here. The Reuters/Ispos poll even said that Trump's approval improved a little but not significant. He's trying to compare Trump polling aggregators from two nonconsecutive terms from that video on Nitter you reference but it's incredibly stupid to measure where Trump was back in May 2017 to May 2025. It would be one thing if he won a second term in 2020 and he compared Trump's May 2017 to a May 2021 aggregator but that's not the case. We also know that 40% has always been his ceiling. Maybe 38% being the lowest he could go because he still has a cult backing him. Folks like Enten either know this but choose not to try to explain it or are lazy and stupid enough to not get that. Enten doesn't even touch on the other issues like Trump losing ground on immigration.

Enten also said that Trump "has some good political instincts" so my guess is that with CNN about to be cut off from Warner Discovery, either they are trying to audition how to best spin Trump's approval for a potential buyer or audience. CNN was never great but you can't just blame streaming or cable cord cutting for their decline. I work in digital and traditional media and while cord cutting is a real thing and studios and networks are still trying to figure out how to be profitable with streaming, it's not at the point that everyone has stopped watching cable news or cut their cable. CNN and other networks can't just up and leave from traditional TV and put everything straight onto YouTube or streaming. They still have cable deals that they are locked into. Sure, advertisers might not be spending as much on cable news as they have before streaming but with CNN going back and forth on their coverage of Trump and Biden over the past eight years trying to figure out which audience to cater to, this is also self-inflicted problem on their end. Enten is proof of that. Yes, advertisers might be scared to spend a lot of money on a network that is overly critical of Trump because they stand to lose the most due to Trump's tariffs. But that might also be why someone like Enten is hyping up the narrative that "people feel better about the economy so they feel better about Trump! He's a genius!". Look like you're reporting the news but spin some aspects to win over advertisers for a cable news network who's future looks uncertain.

Sorry for the long analysis but a mixture of news outlets and Wall Street creating a vibes economy narrative has made it more and more clearer to people that they just wanted Trump to make them richer and higher ratings and subscriptions. They played Chicken Little on a recession all throughout Biden's first term and now are trying to back track on that happening because Trump paused the dumbest aspects of his tariff plan for a few months.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Enten is no stranger to "super lazy analysis"...

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axlee's avatar

44/52 on all adults. I didn’t find the crosstab. But Enten could be correct on being -1 on registered voters if he knew the crosstab.

The first table in the topline showed a lot of self identified independents are not registered voters. And Trump’s approval on independents is horrible in this poll.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

That could be, but RCP's aggregator would be on that like flies on excrement.

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