Morning Digest: Virginia Democrats seek to protect legislative majorities in first special elections of the year

Two critical seats saw serious slippage last year

Virginia Democrats Kannan Srinivasan and JJ Singh campaign with supporters (credit: Kannan Srinivasan for Senate Facebook)

Leading Off

VA State Senate & VA State House

The first special elections of the year are upon us as Virginia Democrats seek to defend their one-seat majorities in the state legislature tonight. Taking center stage is a pair of contests in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, with a third seat outside of Richmond also on the ballot.

The two overlapping districts in Northern Virginia—the 32nd in the Senate and the 26th in the House—should ordinarily be easy holds for Democrats, but the party saw serious slippage at the top of the ticket in November. According to calculations by The Downballot, both supported Kamala Harris by a 22-point margin, but both had backed Joe Biden by a 35-point spread four years earlier.

The battle for the seat in the Senate, which became vacant after Democrat Suhas Subramanyam won election to the U.S. House last fall, pits Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, who stepped down late last year as a member of the House of Delegates, against Republican Tumay Harding, a former teacher.

Srinivasan's resignation in turn triggered a special election for his seat in the lower chamber, which hotel developer JJ Singh is looking to hold for Democrats. He faces consultant Ram Venkatachalam, the Republican nominee. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced last month that it would send $100,000 to state Democrats to help win both races, while Republicans don't appear to have made a comparable investment.

(If the surnames of many of the candidates stand out to you, Loudoun County, where both seats are located, is home to one of the largest Indian American populations in the U.S. According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, 11% of residents identify as such, the fifth-highest proportion of any county in the nation.)

Further south, the GOP should have little trouble hanging on to the 10th Senate District, which, like the 32nd, is vacant because its previous occupant—in this case, Republican John McGuire—also earned a promotion to the House. Donald Trump carried the district 63-36 last year, little different from his 61-37 performance in 2020. Republicans have nominated businessman Luther Cifers while Democrats are running sociology professor Jack Trammell.

If all three seats remain with the party that currently controls them, Democrats would retain their 21-19 edge in the Senate and their 51-49 advantage in the House. However, while the Senate will not be up again until 2027, every seat in the House will be on the ballot in November, when the governorship will also be on the line.

As we have for many years, The Downballot is once again keeping close tabs on every legislative special election nationwide. Be sure to bookmark our newest tracker for the 2025-26 cycle, which we'll update continually.

Senate

DSCC

Senate Democrats have tapped New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand to lead their official campaign arm this cycle as they seek to win the four seats they'd need to reclaim a majority. Gillibrand, who just won a third full term in November, takes over as head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who is up for reelection next year.

Governors

MN-Gov

Businessman Kendall Qualls is "expected" to announce a second bid for the GOP nomination for governor, Fluence Media's Blois Olson reports, saying a kickoff will take place in the "coming weeks."

Qualls, a healthcare executive who badly lost to Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips in 2020, set his sights higher two years later when he sought to challenge Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. But Qualls' campaign ended after he lost the state GOP endorsement to former state Sen. Scott Jensen and decided not to continue to the primary. Jensen ultimately fell to Walz 52-45, but Olson recently reported that Jensen is also considering another try.

NM-Gov

No Republicans have yet expressed interest in seeking New Mexico's open governorship next year, but local reporter Joe Monahan mentions five "possible and credible GOP contenders" in a new roundup. Monahan's list includes state Sen. Crystal Brantley, former state Rep. Rebecca Dow, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, former state Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura, and businesswoman Nella Domenici.

Dow ran for governor in 2022 and presented herself as the true conservative option but got smoked 58-15 in the primary by former TV anchor Mark Ronchetti, who lost the general election to Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. (Lujan Grisham is barred from running again by term-limits laws.) Domenici, meanwhile, ran for Senate last year but lost by a 55-45 margin to Democrat Martin Heinrich, who is also a possible gubernatorial contender.

Nakamura is the only potential candidate who's won statewide and is in fact the last Republican to do so in New Mexico. She was appointed to the court in 2015 by Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, then won a race for the final four years of her predecessor's unexpired term the following year by a 52-48 margin. She did not seek a full eight-year term in 2020.

House

PA-08

Former Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who narrowly lost his bid for a seventh term in November, tells Jessica Delfino at the Scranton Times-Tribune that he's considering a comeback bid. Cartwright, 63, says he's "undecided" and "won't make a decision for another month or so," but he notes that, should he win, he would "get all of my seniority back" as a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee.

Cartwright fell to Republican Rob Bresnahan by a 51-49 margin but ran well ahead of the top of the ticket in Pennsylvania's conservative-leaning 8th District, which is based in the Scranton area.

Legislatures

MN State House

Democrats in the Minnesota House are warning they may prevent Republicans from using a temporary numerical advantage to install a new speaker by refusing to show up when lawmakers reconvene next week, which could deny the chamber the quorum it needs to conduct business.

House Republicans currently hold a slim 67-66 edge, which is all but certain to be erased when a special election in a vacant dark blue seat is held at the end of the month. But Republicans have said that, in the two weeks between Jan. 14, when the legislature is set to return, and Jan 28, when the special election will take place, they plan to install Rep. Lisa Demuth as speaker.

Democrats, however, say that a majority of 68 members must be present for the House to achieve a quorum. At a Monday press conference, party leader Melissa Hortman said Democrats would go on "strike" so that Republicans could not "illegitimately seize power" and urged the GOP to abide by the power-sharing agreement the two sides began working on last year when it appeared the House would be tied.

Republicans, however, insist that only a majority of sworn members is necessary for a quorum, which would allow them to proceed with just 67 votes. That dispute, however, may wind up getting decided by the secretary of state, Democrat Steve Simon, since state law says that he presides over the chamber "until a speaker is elected."

Republicans have also filed a lawsuit before the state Supreme Court challenging Democratic Gov. Tim Walz's decision to schedule a special election so quickly. Five of the court's justices were appointed by Walz, and the other two were named by his predecessor, Democrat Mark Dayton.

Mayors & County Leaders

Oakland, CA Mayor

Former Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee filed paperwork Monday for a potential campaign for mayor of Oakland, with a spokesperson telling KTVU to expect an announcement "later in the week." Lee, who is 78, ended her 27-year career in the House on Friday after unsuccessfully running for the Senate last year.

The ex-congresswoman is poised to enter what could be a busy April 15 ranked-choice special election to replace former Mayor Sheng Thao, whom voters recalled by a decisive margin in November. The city will be led temporarily by City Councilmember Kevin Jenkins, whose colleagues selected him on Monday to serve as council president. Jenkins' new leadership post makes him the interim mayor, but he has not shown any interest in running ahead of the Jan. 17 filing deadline.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly identified Buddy MacKay as the shortest-serving governor in Florida history. That distinction belongs to Wayne Mixson, who served for four days in 1987. MacKay’s 24-day tenure was second-shortest.