Morning Digest: Utah court strikes down GOP proposal to gut ballot initiatives

It's another blow for Republican gerrymandering

Voters in Utah protest against gerrymandering (credit: Better Boundaries Facebook)

Leading Off

UT Ballot

A Utah court voided a Republican-backed amendment that would neuter the ability of citizens to pass ballot initiatives on Thursday, saying that lawmakers' description of their measure was misleading. GOP leaders in the legislature, however, quickly responded by announcing that they'd appeal the decision to the state Supreme Court.

In a 16-page opinion, District Court Judge Dianna Gibson ruled that ballots could still be printed with Amendment D included but ordered election officials not to count any votes either for or against it.

Republicans placed Amendment D on the ballot late last month after the Utah Supreme Court ruled in July that legislators had violated the state constitution when they gutted a redistricting reform initiative voters passed in 2018 to crack down on partisan gerrymandering.

To get around the Supreme Court's decision, the GOP's amendment would explicitly allow lawmakers to amend or repeal voter-approved ballot measures, ensuring that only initiatives the Republican-controlled legislature favors could remain intact.

But Republicans ran afoul of the law, Gibson concluded, because their summary of Amendment D said it would "strengthen the initiative process." It also "omits the material and consequential constitutional change," she wrote—namely, that lawmakers would gain "the unlimited right to change law passed by citizen initiative."

As a result, Gibson said, the summary "does not fairly and accurately 'summarize' the issue," as required by the state constitution. She also ruled that lawmakers violated another constitutional provision by failing to publish their proposed amendment in newspapers at least two months prior to the election.

Republicans are hoping the Supreme Court will see things differently and give Amendment D a new lease on life. But if the 2018 redistricting reform measure, known as Proposition 4, ultimately survives, Utah would likely have to redraw its congressional and legislative maps.

That in turn could see Democrats pick up a seat in the U.S. House because Republicans split the blue-leaning Salt Lake City area between all four of the state's congressional districts to ensure they would win each one.

House

House Majority PAC

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC on Thursday released six House polls conducted this summer, including two that were completed on or before July 21, the day President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign. Democrats lead in five of the surveys and trail narrowly in the sixth.

• AZ-01: GBAO: Amish Shah (D): 48, David Schweikert (R-inc): 47 (Aug. 8-13)

• CA-22: Normington Petts: Rudy Salas (D): 46, David Valadao (R-inc): 44 (Aug. 25-27)

• NE-02: GQR: Tony Vargas (D): 49, Don Bacon (R-inc): 45 (July 16-21)

• NY-04: GQR: Laura Gillen (D): 50, Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc): 47 (Aug. 26-30)

• NY-22: GQR: John Mannion (D): 50, Brandon Williams (R-inc): 43 (July 7-15)

• VA-02: Impact Research: Jen Kiggans (R-inc): 48, Missy Cotter Smasal (D): 47 (Aug. 20-25)

An HMP press release did not include presidential numbers for any of these House seats.

We'll soon see new data from Virginia's 2nd District, the lone poll in the bunch where Democrats were behind—albeit by just a point—as Christopher Newport University is set to release what will be the first independent survey of the race on Friday afternoon. HMP, for its part, announced earlier this week it had reserved an additional $582,000 on ads to beat Kiggans in a Hampton Roads constituency that favored Biden 50-48 four years ago.

HMP also booked $2.3 million in commercials in Iowa, which Politico says will be directed to helping Democrat Christina Bohannan defeat GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District. Donald Trump carried this southeastern Iowa seat 51-48 in 2020, while Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan 53-47 two years later during a strong cycle for Hawkeye State Republicans. We haven't seen any polls this year looking at their rematch, however.

Mayors & County Leaders

San Francisco, CA Mayor

Philanthropist Daniel Lurie publicized an internal poll from David Binder Research on Thursday that showed him unseating San Francisco Mayor London Breed 57-43 in the city's Nov. 5 ranked-choice general election—but those results contradict a survey released just last week by a pro-Lurie group that showed Breed ahead.

That earlier poll from FM3 found Breed defeating Lurie 52-48 in a hypothetical one-on-one showdown even as it argued that Lurie, the founder of an anti-poverty nonprofit and a Levi Strauss heir, could win. Both polls, though, agree that it's far from certain that Breed and Lurie will be the last two candidates standing.

The David Binder poll sees a third contender, former Supervisor Mark Farrell, edging out Lurie 24-23 when it comes to first-choice preferences, with Breed just behind at 22%. (Farrell served as interim mayor for six months in 2018.) Two members of the city's Board of Supervisors, Supervisor Aaron Peskin and Ahsha Safai, respectively take 12% and 5%.

Farrell, Lurie, and Breed remain closely bunched together as the trailing candidates are gradually eliminated, with Farrell narrowly failing to advance to the final round. All the main candidates in this officially nonpartisan race, like almost every notable politician in San Francisco, identify as Democrats. 

FM3, by contrast, showed Breed taking 30% in the first round of tabulations, with Farrell and Lurie tied at 19% apiece and Peskin at 11%. That poll also found Farrell and Lurie with similar levels of support as it simulated the instant-runoff process, though just enough respondents broke for Lurie to send him into the final round with the incumbent.

Breed's many opponents have argued that she's failed to address issues like homelessness and crime during her eight years in office. The city's internal political divisions, however, make the race far more than a referendum on Breed's tenure.

Peskin is one of the most prominent members of the City by the Bay's progressive faction, while the other four contenders are part of its moderate bloc. The long-running battle between San Francisco's opposing ideological camps can be confounding to observers outside this heavily Democratic city, especially since most local elected officials would be considered ardent liberals almost anywhere else in America.

However, the San Francisco Chronicle sought to shed light on the divide in a 2018 article.

"Progressives push for more affordable housing, tighter restrictions on tech companies and higher taxes for corporations," reporter Rachel Swan explained. "Moderates tend to be pro-development, pro-tech and pro-business."

Candidates, though, are often reluctant to embrace either label. Lurie, for instance, pitched himself as a member of neither group when he launched his campaign in September, though that hasn't stopped many media outlets from identifying him as a moderate.

Some local observers have also argued the moderate versus progressive divide obscures more than it reveals, with Chronicle columnist Emily Hoeven calling the distinction "increasingly meaningless" in an essay earlier this year.

Poll Pile

• WA-Gov: Elway Research for Cascade PBS: Bob Ferguson (D): 50, Dave Reichert (R): 39

• IN-AG: Lake Research Partners (D) for Destiny Wells: Todd Rokita (R-inc): 44, Destiny Wells (D): 41 

Ad Roundup

• FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc) - anti-Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) - anti-Tim Sheehy (R); American Crossroads - anti-Tester

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D) Mark Robinson (R) 

• NH-Gov: New Hampshire Democratic Party - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R) (here and here)

• CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc)

• CT-05: George Logan (R) and the NRCC

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc) (here and here)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc); Tony Vargas (D)

• NY-01: Nick LaLota (R-inc) - anti-John Avlon (D)

• NY-19: Josh Riley (D); Riley - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• PA-10: Scott Perry (R-inc)

• VA-07: Eugene Vindman (D) - anti-Derrick Anderson (R)