A Republican candidate has not won a state-wide race in Minnesota in twenty years (and a GOP presidential candidate hasn’t taken the state in 52). Light blue?
My understanding is that a lot of the races have been reasonably close, in the range of 5 points or fewer, with a few exceptions like Senator Klobuchar. The state is blue, but not with the tilt of a Massachusetts or California.
kinda like how carolina is only light red, we have the gov, lg, sos, ag, supertindent of public education. the republicans have never elected a republican attorney general nor a republican secretary of state since 1873, only three republican governors since 1868, and yet it would be hard to characterize the old north state as anything other than light red, given that we have won two presidential races total since 76 there, and have been locked out of us senate seats for more than a decade
The text to speech option to listen to the Daily Digest has streamlined my mornings. And the voice is pretty pleasant. Though I do occasionally have to translate some abbreviations that become words, like cosen.
I really kind of like the voters to decide and not have California's governor pick their successor. We have statewide televised debates this week, and ballots drop in a couple weeks, so the undecided needle will start to move. I'm actually getting less concerned about a Republican lockout than before Swalwell's fall from grace.
Xmentum continues! With two weeks until voting starts, I think it's time for an endorsement the big dogs would rather have avoided. This is probably about 99% likely to be Becerra.
Separate CA-Gov poll dropped this morning. This one is from an outfit called Kreate Strategies. I'd never heard of them but a quick search shows that they also did a poll in early April in the same race, not for any candidate.
Considering both this poll and the one above, it's time to increase the polling threshold for debate participation to 10%. That way, the same five candidates would be included, and DINO Matt Mahan would be out of it.
Blowout result for Progressive Bulgaria, winning an absolute majority in a heretofore fractured parliament, and many of the existing parties not even making the electoral threshold. Wikipedia describes them as "left-wing populist, left-wing nationalist, and left-wing conservative". I've see various takes on the degree to which they are pro-Russian. But they were clearly able to capture an electorate fed up with the status quo.
What races, in y'all opinion, do you think democrats dropped the ball, in terms of candidate quality? I'm gonna say Georgia Governor and Wisconsin governor, still winnable races but ONLY in this environment.
I don't think Georgia is a dropped ball by any means, at least yet. You don't always need a statewide officer or a Congressmember to have a star candidate. Same with Wisconsin. My only worry in those states is that we go with weaker candidates electorally, but a generic Dem is favored in both states in 2026.
Nevada Supreme Court and the third GA Supreme Court seat are the only real answers here.
If Peggy Flanagan is elected to the Senate to succeed Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar is elected governor, will Angie Craig be the frontrunner for Klobuchar's Senate seat?
There was a good breakdown of candidates a bit back, I think when Klobuchar was rumored or launched for gov (I wish Substack had a better post and liking history on accounts, or better comment searches...). But broadly, I think no. Craig is more moderate than Klobuchar, and I think she's going to want to pick someone more like herself (ideologically between Craig and Flanagan).
Unlikely. Klobuchar has her own political apparatus going back 2 decades, and Craig being a relative newcomer and not from Klobuchar's political machine, it is unlikely she gets appointed.
As a Minnesotan, I believe former State Senator Melisa Lopez Franzen is the frontrunner if Klobuchar wants to have a long-term replacement (which seems likely). Lopez Franzen is part of Klobuchar's inner circle, a former Dem Senate Leader who got redistricted out, and breifly ran for Senate this year as an also-ran against Flanagan and Craig.
But if she wants a short term cup-of-coffee replacement and hold a January 2027 special (Minnesota holds special elections quite quickly) former Hennepin County Attorney Michael Freeman seems most likely. Klobuchar came up as an acolyte/underling of Freeman, and Freeman more recently became prominent as the prosecuting attorney against George Floyd's murderers.
Michigan Democrats need to get rid of the convention process for the downballot races. It favors only the candidates with the most fervent supporters. It's insane that they had to wait until 9pm on a Sunday evening when many people are meal prepping for the week or putting kids to bed to finish.
There are so many bizarre quirks in individual primaries and elections that make no sense and often create chaos. MI and CO with the convention process, VA’s party-run firehouse primaries, NY having special election nominees be party-chosen, CA’s top four system, etc. I think we’d all benefit from some semblance of a consistent system. What that system would be could be a contentious question — I’m a staunch RCV supporter myself — but at least it wouldn’t lead to weird shit constantly going on in races.
Darializa Avila Chevalier has a new internal out. She trails Espaillat 42-28 just off name recognition - but after being given “positive messaging” about her campaign it goes up to 46 DAC - 35 Espaillat.
Thoughts? Kevin/formerly Nick Tagliaferro, ex-author of Primary School, noted on Bluesky that the 42-28 result predates campaigning — not a great result for an incumbent.
I’m curious though about the investment going into this race on the left. Of course that doesn’t mean anything — Robert Peters imploded and there was a lot of support for him, for one — but I do feel like DAC is getting more attention than, say, Chuck Park or Michael Blake. There’s also the post-Mamdani factor to consider. Who knows, I could be wrong. Like I said, Peters had a lot of support and lost, as did Kat Abghuzaleh. But we live in crazy times, lots of unexpected shit could happen. (On the GOP side, who saw Dan Crenshaw losing as a possibility?)
A Republican candidate has not won a state-wide race in Minnesota in twenty years (and a GOP presidential candidate hasn’t taken the state in 52). Light blue?
My understanding is that a lot of the races have been reasonably close, in the range of 5 points or fewer, with a few exceptions like Senator Klobuchar. The state is blue, but not with the tilt of a Massachusetts or California.
Well, as we used to say when I was a kid, “Close only counts in horseshoes and atom bombs.”
We would say "horseshoes and hand grenades". You had significantly more firepower.
Margins and vote share define competitiveness in elections analysis, not win/loss scorecards.
Yeah, I know. But that old phrase from my youth popped into my brain and I felt compelled to share.
Democrats usually win, but it's often by single digits. Harris won the state by 4%. Walz was re-elected by 7%. So yes, LIGHT blue.
kinda like how carolina is only light red, we have the gov, lg, sos, ag, supertindent of public education. the republicans have never elected a republican attorney general nor a republican secretary of state since 1873, only three republican governors since 1868, and yet it would be hard to characterize the old north state as anything other than light red, given that we have won two presidential races total since 76 there, and have been locked out of us senate seats for more than a decade
And "Republican" meant something rather different in 1868 and 1873. ;-)
Very confused here for a second cause as a Gamecock to me Carolina means South Carolina ;)
y'all are the real usc, that one in southern California is actually correctly called the university of spoiled children
Both USCs have team nicknames that lend themselves to tasteless jokes.
light blue is the color of the sheets used by Democratic bed-wetters.
The text to speech option to listen to the Daily Digest has streamlined my mornings. And the voice is pretty pleasant. Though I do occasionally have to translate some abbreviations that become words, like cosen.
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2046222671382208971
New - California governor poll
🔴 Hilton 20%
🔵 Becerra 15%
🔵 Steyer 15%
🔴 Bianco 14%
🔵 Porter 13%
🔵 Mahan 6%
Gudelunas S #C - LV - 4/18
Never thought I'd see Becerra leading the D pack in one these polls... interesting!
Becerra, Steyer, and Porter all within 2%. And Bianco.
Here's the actual poll.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019d-a825-d182-a9fd-be3d42280000
This tweet also describes them as anti-Steyer fwiw.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2046218102338142670
We really need Newsom, Harris, Schiff, and Padilla to choose someone and be done with this lockout nightmare.
Newsom is considering endorsing Becerra but he hasn't done it yet.
I really kind of like the voters to decide and not have California's governor pick their successor. We have statewide televised debates this week, and ballots drop in a couple weeks, so the undecided needle will start to move. I'm actually getting less concerned about a Republican lockout than before Swalwell's fall from grace.
Never heard of this pollster.
Xmentum continues! With two weeks until voting starts, I think it's time for an endorsement the big dogs would rather have avoided. This is probably about 99% likely to be Becerra.
I did!. And if the big Dems get of their collective asses and endorse him this klown kar event will be over!!
Separate CA-Gov poll dropped this morning. This one is from an outfit called Kreate Strategies. I'd never heard of them but a quick search shows that they also did a poll in early April in the same race, not for any candidate.
🟥Steve Hilton 18%
🟦Tom Steyer 16%
🟥Chad Bianco 14%
🟦Xavier Becerra 10%
🟦Katie Porter 10%
🟦Matt Mahan 4%
🟦Betty Yee 2%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 1%
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2046231687088988619
Link to this full poll:
https://kstrat.net/press/california-2026-governor-affordability-integrity
Nice to see Betty running ahead of Antonio. Yee-haw!
Considering both this poll and the one above, it's time to increase the polling threshold for debate participation to 10%. That way, the same five candidates would be included, and DINO Matt Mahan would be out of it.
Blowout result for Progressive Bulgaria, winning an absolute majority in a heretofore fractured parliament, and many of the existing parties not even making the electoral threshold. Wikipedia describes them as "left-wing populist, left-wing nationalist, and left-wing conservative". I've see various takes on the degree to which they are pro-Russian. But they were clearly able to capture an electorate fed up with the status quo.
Some of the chat about this last night:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/weekly-open-thread-475/comment/246080415
The floor for Trump is no longer there. I don’t think I’ve seen independents be -75 on any issue either, ever.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2045856379198484836
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2045857506870591580
📊 NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll
Pres. Trump
Approve: 37% (-2)
Disapprove: 63% (+2)
Lowest second term approval
——
Trump's net approval on key issues
🟤 Border Security: -12
🔴 Iran: -34
🔴 Cost of living: -36 (new low)
——
3/30-4/13 | 31,443 A
https://nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-second-term-low-economy-iran-war-rcna331462
NBC POLL: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the war with Iran?
Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 67%
——
🟢 MAGA Supporters: 87-13 (+74)
🟢 Republicans: 74-26 (+48)
🟤 Independents: 18-82 (-74)
What races, in y'all opinion, do you think democrats dropped the ball, in terms of candidate quality? I'm gonna say Georgia Governor and Wisconsin governor, still winnable races but ONLY in this environment.
Nevada supreme court
100%
How did we drop the ball in Wisconsin?
When Mandela Barnes is arguably your strongest candidate running, i'd say we dropped the ball.
Yeah I'd rather be running someone who hasnt proven to be a statewide loser. But in this environment he may be okay.
Sure in this environment there's a chance
I don't think Georgia is a dropped ball by any means, at least yet. You don't always need a statewide officer or a Congressmember to have a star candidate. Same with Wisconsin. My only worry in those states is that we go with weaker candidates electorally, but a generic Dem is favored in both states in 2026.
Nevada Supreme Court and the third GA Supreme Court seat are the only real answers here.
Maine Senate. I think Platner still beats Collins, though.
If Peggy Flanagan is elected to the Senate to succeed Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar is elected governor, will Angie Craig be the frontrunner for Klobuchar's Senate seat?
There was a good breakdown of candidates a bit back, I think when Klobuchar was rumored or launched for gov (I wish Substack had a better post and liking history on accounts, or better comment searches...). But broadly, I think no. Craig is more moderate than Klobuchar, and I think she's going to want to pick someone more like herself (ideologically between Craig and Flanagan).
Unlikely. Klobuchar has her own political apparatus going back 2 decades, and Craig being a relative newcomer and not from Klobuchar's political machine, it is unlikely she gets appointed.
As a Minnesotan, I believe former State Senator Melisa Lopez Franzen is the frontrunner if Klobuchar wants to have a long-term replacement (which seems likely). Lopez Franzen is part of Klobuchar's inner circle, a former Dem Senate Leader who got redistricted out, and breifly ran for Senate this year as an also-ran against Flanagan and Craig.
But if she wants a short term cup-of-coffee replacement and hold a January 2027 special (Minnesota holds special elections quite quickly) former Hennepin County Attorney Michael Freeman seems most likely. Klobuchar came up as an acolyte/underling of Freeman, and Freeman more recently became prominent as the prosecuting attorney against George Floyd's murderers.
Shot:
https://x.com/DashaBurns/status/2046214071809143279
NEW: Strategists in and around the White House are under no illusions about how the midterms will likely play out if energy prices don't come down.
"If we don't see the $3 gallon of gas, we’re gonna get killed," one person close to the White House told me.
Latest in @playbookdc https://politico.com/playbook
Chaser:
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2045856130220323240
TAPPER: When do you think it's realistic for Americans to expect that gas will go back below under $3 a gallon?
CHRIS WRIGHT: I don't know. That could happen later this year. (BOLD) That might happen until next year (BOLD). But prices have likely peaked.
Michigan Democrats need to get rid of the convention process for the downballot races. It favors only the candidates with the most fervent supporters. It's insane that they had to wait until 9pm on a Sunday evening when many people are meal prepping for the week or putting kids to bed to finish.
There are so many bizarre quirks in individual primaries and elections that make no sense and often create chaos. MI and CO with the convention process, VA’s party-run firehouse primaries, NY having special election nominees be party-chosen, CA’s top four system, etc. I think we’d all benefit from some semblance of a consistent system. What that system would be could be a contentious question — I’m a staunch RCV supporter myself — but at least it wouldn’t lead to weird shit constantly going on in races.
NY-13:
https://www.thecity.nyc/2026/04/20/espaillat-poll-darializa-avila-chevalier-ny13/
Darializa Avila Chevalier has a new internal out. She trails Espaillat 42-28 just off name recognition - but after being given “positive messaging” about her campaign it goes up to 46 DAC - 35 Espaillat.
Thoughts? Kevin/formerly Nick Tagliaferro, ex-author of Primary School, noted on Bluesky that the 42-28 result predates campaigning — not a great result for an incumbent.
https://bsky.app/profile/reginageorgebush.bsky.social/post/3mjwngqt6oc2k
DAC is also gaining attention and endorsements. Could an upset be brewing? Or is Espaillat still safe, particularly since this is an internal?
My thoughts are the "positive messaging" polling is garbage. LOL "my candidates amazing but that guy over there sucks, so what do you think now?"
I’m curious though about the investment going into this race on the left. Of course that doesn’t mean anything — Robert Peters imploded and there was a lot of support for him, for one — but I do feel like DAC is getting more attention than, say, Chuck Park or Michael Blake. There’s also the post-Mamdani factor to consider. Who knows, I could be wrong. Like I said, Peters had a lot of support and lost, as did Kat Abghuzaleh. But we live in crazy times, lots of unexpected shit could happen. (On the GOP side, who saw Dan Crenshaw losing as a possibility?)