Please note: Starting tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug. 26), only paid subscribers will be able to participate in comments. This is not a choice we wished to make, but it was forced upon us.
As we explained in a detailed email yesterday, the inundation of spammers, along with a rise in trolls, has made it impossible for us to keep our comment section a civil and welcoming place given our extremely limited human resources. We have considered every possible approach and tweaked every possible setting, but the only remaining option is to paywall our comments.
To help mitigate this, if you’re a free subscriber who’s eager to continue commenting, we'd like to offer you a discount. As you may have seen, The Downballot recently raised our rates to $75 a year. But if you subscribe via this special link by Wednesday, you can upgrade at our old price of $60 a year: https://www.the-downballot.com/keepcommenting
Again, I am very sorry to have to do this. Community has always been so important to me, literally from the day I launched the Swing State Project 23 years ago. This is the only way for us to protect it, and I hope you will put your trust in our stewardship. Thank you.
Social Media companies (which is ultimately what Substack is) seem to think that bots aren't really a problem, so long as they aren't overtly malicious, since, after all, they "drive engagement". It's only once they're platforms are swarming with them to the point that the humans decide it's not worth the bother anymore that they're like "oh shit, we should do something about that."
I'm hesitant to say anything because I'm certain you've thought about this more than I have, but it feels like this might be an overreaction to what appears to be a single bad actor creating spam accounts endlessly. Did you contact Substack support, or consider opening up moderation to more trusted community members?
Trafalgar we banned from the Morning Digest in December of 2020, well *before* the 2022 debacle. The firm's principle, Robert Cahaly, spread lies about Trump's defeat:
"Cahaly baselessly claimed to Sean Hannity before the election that Trump would have to win Pennsylvania 'by 4 or 5 to overtake the voter fraud that will happen there.'
"More recently, he tweeted that his new Georgia poll is 'based on All votes we anticipate to be counted in GA Senate Runoff (both above and below the table).' That’s a reference to a soundly debunked conspiracy theory that election workers in Fulton County somehow rigged the election by counting fake ballots taken out of 'suitcases' they’d placed under a table—one that Republican officials with the secretary of state’s office blasted as 'ridiculous.'
"We take a heterodox approach to polling—there are many ways to get it right, and no one has a monopoly on the truth. But the truth is what we all must seek. Excluding polls is not something we do lightly, but when a pollster espouses beliefs about elections that are demonstrably false, we are unable to conclude that such a person does in fact believe in seeking the truth."
I've been saying to myself throughout 2026 that Garrity would've been a stronger candidate in 2030, when Shapiro is term-limited. If she decided to run in 2030 and NOT 2026, she would've been a much stronger candidate. But if she decides to run again in 2030, she'll have a difficult challenge with getting the nomination if someone else throws their hat into the ring (probably Dan Meuser), and the general election would probably be a headache on her end due to her loss in 2026.
As I can only afford one paid subscription to any Substack newsletter, this will be the one I subscribe to, and I signed up for a monthly subscription.
Well, it's been a good year. I was glad to be a part of this community. I was searching for a place that was able to discuss politics this in depth for a long time. As I don't have a great source of income to be able to continue commenting, I'll say that I hope to rejoin at some point.
Whether you knew me by my first name Julius or by this moniker, I hope I was a positive addition to the community for you.
Please note: Starting tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug. 26), only paid subscribers will be able to participate in comments. This is not a choice we wished to make, but it was forced upon us.
As we explained in a detailed email yesterday, the inundation of spammers, along with a rise in trolls, has made it impossible for us to keep our comment section a civil and welcoming place given our extremely limited human resources. We have considered every possible approach and tweaked every possible setting, but the only remaining option is to paywall our comments.
To help mitigate this, if you’re a free subscriber who’s eager to continue commenting, we'd like to offer you a discount. As you may have seen, The Downballot recently raised our rates to $75 a year. But if you subscribe via this special link by Wednesday, you can upgrade at our old price of $60 a year: https://www.the-downballot.com/keepcommenting
Again, I am very sorry to have to do this. Community has always been so important to me, literally from the day I launched the Swing State Project 23 years ago. This is the only way for us to protect it, and I hope you will put your trust in our stewardship. Thank you.
Welp, until my financial situation stabilizes itself, I guess this is goodbye then.
Hope we'll have you back! Good luck with everything.
Social Media companies (which is ultimately what Substack is) seem to think that bots aren't really a problem, so long as they aren't overtly malicious, since, after all, they "drive engagement". It's only once they're platforms are swarming with them to the point that the humans decide it's not worth the bother anymore that they're like "oh shit, we should do something about that."
I'm hesitant to say anything because I'm certain you've thought about this more than I have, but it feels like this might be an overreaction to what appears to be a single bad actor creating spam accounts endlessly. Did you contact Substack support, or consider opening up moderation to more trusted community members?
It's been a pleasure while it lasted. Sorry you had to make this choice. Best of luck!
FWIW, Trafalgar has the South Carolina runoff tied up.
https://x.com/RobertCahaly/status/2092072107240837128?s=20
Good to see that they were able to wheel in the old dartboard for this one...
Trafalgar we banned from the Morning Digest in December of 2020, well *before* the 2022 debacle. The firm's principle, Robert Cahaly, spread lies about Trump's defeat:
"Cahaly baselessly claimed to Sean Hannity before the election that Trump would have to win Pennsylvania 'by 4 or 5 to overtake the voter fraud that will happen there.'
"More recently, he tweeted that his new Georgia poll is 'based on All votes we anticipate to be counted in GA Senate Runoff (both above and below the table).' That’s a reference to a soundly debunked conspiracy theory that election workers in Fulton County somehow rigged the election by counting fake ballots taken out of 'suitcases' they’d placed under a table—one that Republican officials with the secretary of state’s office blasted as 'ridiculous.'
"We take a heterodox approach to polling—there are many ways to get it right, and no one has a monopoly on the truth. But the truth is what we all must seek. Excluding polls is not something we do lightly, but when a pollster espouses beliefs about elections that are demonstrably false, we are unable to conclude that such a person does in fact believe in seeking the truth."
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/12/8/2000533/elections/Morning-Digest-Another-suburban-surge-saw-Biden-flip-key-Michigan-district-that-Romney-won-in-2012/#5
I am actually going to predict a Norman win today
So, a Norman Conquest?
I'm torn. A Norman win would be a black eye for Trump. But I think Graham would be easier to beat. So I guess I'll root for the latter.
PA Gov Siena:
Shapiro 55 Garrity 39
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/us/elections/josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-poll.html?unlocked_article_code=1.8FA.fH2u.AmJZvZYidEVt&smid=url-share
Still baffling that Garrity took the plunge this year in a Trump midterm vs a popular incumbent
I've been saying to myself throughout 2026 that Garrity would've been a stronger candidate in 2030, when Shapiro is term-limited. If she decided to run in 2030 and NOT 2026, she would've been a much stronger candidate. But if she decides to run again in 2030, she'll have a difficult challenge with getting the nomination if someone else throws their hat into the ring (probably Dan Meuser), and the general election would probably be a headache on her end due to her loss in 2026.
I could see Dave Sunday running in 2030.
Also from the poll:
Fetterman Favorbilty ratings
🔵 Democrats: -42
🔴 Republicans: +52
Hope your move went smoothly, Jeff! Glad you were able to get it done before the September 1st chaos.
As I can only afford one paid subscription to any Substack newsletter, this will be the one I subscribe to, and I signed up for a monthly subscription.
Texas UT poll:
Talarico 42 Paxton 39
Abbott 45 Hinojosa 40
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll-finds-talarico-leading-paxton-abbott-leading-hinojosa-continued-resistance-to-data-centers-2
So much for pushing the leaners.
Well, it's been a good year. I was glad to be a part of this community. I was searching for a place that was able to discuss politics this in depth for a long time. As I don't have a great source of income to be able to continue commenting, I'll say that I hope to rejoin at some point.
Whether you knew me by my first name Julius or by this moniker, I hope I was a positive addition to the community for you.