Leading Off
SC-Sen, OK-Gov
Both of Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates narrowly prevailed on Tuesday in their respective Republican primary runoffs.
Appointed Sen. Darline Graham held off Rep. Ralph Norman 52-48 in the contest to replace the late Lindsey Graham, the incumbent’s brother and immediate predecessor, as the GOP nominee in South Carolina. Graham, who scored a lower percentage of the vote than her sibling’s underwhelming 57% share in June, will be the favorite against pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary two months ago.
Meanwhile Mike Mazzei, a former Oklahoma state senator, won the party’s nod for his state’s open governorship by an even tighter 50.3 to 49.7 spread against Attorney General Gentner Drummond. Mazzei, who also secured termed-out Gov. Kevin Stitt’s endorsement against Drummond, is the frontrunner against state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, who won her Democratic primary in June.
Graham and Mazzei each benefited from Trump’s endorsement against intraparty opponents who sought to take advantage of their unflattering debate moments. Andrews responded to Graham’s win by challenging the senator, who said on stage last month that “I’m not that informed on national security,” to a minimum of three debates.
Outside groups also mobilized to boost both of Trump’s candidates.
AdImpact reports that Graham and her allies spent over $7 million during the two-week GOP runoff, compared to only $2 million for Norman’s side. The intervention was just enough to give Norman the unusual distinction of losing a primary for governor and Senate in the same year.
An affiliate of the hardline anti-tax Club for Growth, meanwhile, targeted Drummond for defeat. Politico, citing data from AdImpact, reports the group spent $8 million against Drummond, an effort that included ads claiming he suffered from “TDS: Trump derangement syndrome.” Trump himself also piled on with Truth Social posts blasting Drummond.
Election Recaps
GA-13
Everton Blair will become the first gay person to represent Georgia in Congress following his victory in Tuesday’s all-Democratic special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. David Scott.
Blair defeated activist Marcye Scott, the daughter of the late congressman, 54-46 in the special election runoff for the remaining months of the older Scott’s term representing Georgia’s 13th District. Blair will be succeeded in January by state Rep. Jasmine Clark, who defeated him in the May primary for a full term in the new Congress.
House
NH-01
State Rep. Heath Howard announced Monday he was dropping out of the Sept. 8 Democratic primary and endorsing Hampton Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont, whom he pitched as a progressive alternative to the two frontrunners.
“Our bootstrapped campaign led in the polls as the anti-establishment challenger to Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan,” Howard said in a statement. “Now, it’s time to pass the torch to someone with the funding, the ground game and the momentum to take this home.”
Howard’s decision to back Beriont rather than continue his campaign for New Hampshire’s open 1st District comes as Sullivan and Shaheen attack one another on the airwaves while ignoring the rest of the field.
Sullivan, who served in the Marines, debuted a commercial on Tuesday featuring fellow veterans condemning “lies” from Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
“Maura doesn’t take a dime from corporate PACs or AIPAC,” the cast says, with three different people each reciting a segment. “Stefany’s the kind of person that was born on third base and thought she hit a triple. I want a fighter, not a fancy last name.”
Sullivan launched her ad one week after Shaheen aired a spot accusing her of getting “90% of her campaign money” from outside the state, including “$300,000 bundled from AIPAC donors.”
A recent poll from Saint Anselm College showed Sullivan edging out Shaheen 26-24, with Beriont in third place with 12%. Howard was in fourth with 7%, while each of the other five candidates trailed still further.
Poll Pile
TX-Sen: University of Texas/YouGov:
James Talarico (D): 42, Ken Paxton (R): 39, Ted Brown (L): 3.
June: 43-42 Paxton.
AZ-Gov: Grayhouse for unidentified client:
Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 49, Andy Biggs (R): 45.
Grayhouse is a Republican firm.
PA-Gov: Siena University for the New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer:
Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 55, Stacy Garrity (R): 39.
RI-Gov (D): Emerson College for WPRI:
Helena Foulkes: 45, Dan McKee (inc): 30.
May: 40-20 Foulkes.
TX-Gov: UT/YouGov:
Greg Abbott (R-inc): 45, Gina Hinojosa (D): 40, Pat Dixon (L): 3.
June: 47-40 Abbott.
MA-06 (D): Global Strategy Group for Dan Koh:
Koh: 35, Tram Nguyen: 20, John Beccia: 12, Jamie Belsito: 8.
Early August: Koh: 34, Beccia: 15, Nguyen: 14.
AZ-AG: Noble Predictive Insights:
Kris Mayes (D-inc): 44, Warren Petersen (R): 38.
AZ-AG: HighGround Public Affairs:
Mayes (D-inc): 48, Petersen (R): 40.
AZ-AG: Grayhouse:
Mayes (D-inc): 47, Warren (R): 46.
TX-AG: UT/YouGov:
Mayes Middleton (R): 40, Nathan Johnson (D): 35, Tom Oxford (L): 3.
June: 41-36 Middleton.
AZ-SoS: NPI:
Adrian Fontes (D-inc): 41, Alex Kolodin (R): 35, Duwayne Collier (G): 3.
AZ-SoS: HighGround:
Fontes (D-inc): 43, Kolodin (R): 35.
AZ-SoS: Grayhouse:
Fontes (D-inc): 46, Kolodin (R): 42.
AZ Treasurer: HighGround:
Nick Mansour (D): 42, Elijah Norton (R): 39.
AZ Treasurer: Grayhouse:
Norton (R): 41, Mansour (D): 39.
AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction: NPI:
Kimberly Yee (R): 40, Teresa Leyba Ruiz (D): 37.
AZ Superintendent: HighGround:
Ruiz (D): 42, Yee (R): 41.
AZ Superintendent: Grayhouse:
Yee (R): 45, Ruiz (D): 42.
TX-LG: UT/YouGov:
Dan Patrick (R-inc): 42, Vikki Goodwin (D): 35, Anthony Cristo (L): 4.
June: 43-36 Patrick.
TX Comptroller: UT/YouGov:
Don Huffines (R-inc): 41, Sarah Eckhardt (D): 34, all others 2% or less.
June: 40-34 Huffines.
As Mark Twain says, "The report of my death was an exaggeration." Miraculously, a commenter was kind enough to gift me an annual subscription, so I can still comment here.
Anyways, pleasantly surprised at Blair's win and disappointed Graham and Mazzei won.