Yeah, the precise wording of how the people polled are "informed" really matters. Does the pollster generally publish that? Anyways, lots of opportunity for manipulation here.
Ron Brownstein was on with Bill Kristol on Sunday talking about the Senate races up this cycle. Brownstein said for Dems to have a chance in Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, Trump's numbers with white working class voters would have to be in the 30s on election day.
I like Green but I want to see a new generation in politics and he should stop trying to insinuate that Menefee is funded by AIPAC. There’s zero evidence of that.
Has to be a health issue because he's a been a reliable vote for Johnson and doesn't seem like someone who'd pretty much end their majority by resigning early. My guess is someone knows he's sick or something and that's where the rumors are coming from.
Interesting seeing reactions to this poll, on the one hand more and more pollsters showing Trump's approval in the 37-39% range is pretty bad for them, on the other hand some seem disappointed in "only" a Dem +6 edge on the generic ballot. And this is where I think overly focusing on margin (Dem minus GOP number) can be a little misleading, at least at this stage. I don't think this poll is telling us to expect Dems to get 53% on election day and Republicans 47%. I also don't think Republicans are only going to get 38% in the end, but certainly I think it's a very heavy lift for them getting from 38% to 47% to maintain that 6 point margin. It's no accident the GOP number and Trump's approval are very close!
I don’t how good the candidate is the Republicans nominated, but Mejia’s election is not a given in this type of a district. We’ll have to see what kind of financial commitment the Republicans make. She needs to make Trump her opponent and hammer it over and over again.
Do I agree that’s what Republicans think? As I said, we’ll have to see how much they invest, and how Democrats respond. I’ve said they could win the race, but given the environment, it will be tough.
I agree, she'll most likely win.in this environment but she'll struggle in a normal year. This is not some blue urban district where a far left candidate doesn't have to sweat. We should be pushing district appropriate candidates.
This is the right analysis I think. She shouldn't have any problem in 2026 and is probably ok in 2028 (pending the R nominee for both prez and this district), but I'd consider this tossup at best in 2030 if it is a Presidem midterm.
If NJ does mid-decade redistricting Democrats should draw her into a successor to Pou's seat connecting Mejia's home base in Bloomfield to Paterson. Pou's almost 70 anyway, and that configuration gets a bluer seat than both 9 and 11 currently are.
This could allow a more manistream candidate to take over in NJ-11, like newly elected assemblywoman Marisa Sweeney.
Are there other examples of a progressive representing a district like this? Katie Porter is the only one I can maybe think of, but her district had Irvine in it. There are no big universities in NJ-11 right?
I doubt any Republican could win in this district in 2026, and she'll probably be fine in 2028, but she really isn't the right person for a future Dem midterm. Wouldn't be shocked that if she survives 2030, Bloomfield (her home) is drawn into a bluer district.
A lot of the people here are commenters who have been active on other projects which has led to this site, some of them go back 10-15 years, to something called the Swing State Project, and then as part of Daily Kos Elections. The comments here and on the discord are much broader than the editorial focus of the Daily Digests and other staff posts here, if that helps.
We only stopped because we didn't have the bandwidth any longer. I'd love to get back to it one day.
Anyhow, I am going to keep a real, REAL short leash on Israel-related discussions, and if people don't behave themselves immaculately, they'll go away. But as a general rule, foreign elections are welcome in the comments.
Thank you! Both for your clarification, your openness – and the short leash. The latter, sadly, has repeatedly been proven to be absolutely necessary, dating back to the days of DailyKos Elections.
PS. I really miss your coverage of foreign elections, which was stellar! Should finances at some point allow The DownBallot to increase its bandwidth and revive this, then I for one would be extremely grateful.
I guess the Israeli elections website assembles data just to record it for their own purposes and isn't trying to really help researchers. Either that, or they haven't thought that part through. Either way, I salute you for working through all of that and look forward to what you come up with!
Modern Hebrew is usually not written with the diacritics, btw. If you go to any Israeli newspaper, it will be just Hebrew characters, no pronunciation marks.
I'm still waiting for the DCCC to add Boebert to this list. (if Ogles is there, why not?), but it's insane her old seat that she almost lost is not on the target list either. Was within 10 for president and 5 for congress in 2024.
They also seem to be having cold feet on adding NJ-02, FL-04, NE-01, NY-02, and the newly open NV-02. Plus a few more in the 15-20 range with F-tier GOP incumbents (IN-05, AZ-08, etc.)
NJ-7: Businessman Brian Varela, despite starting a "no negativity" campaign as a Democrat, actually tried to convince his primary opponents to orchestrate a smear campaign against Rebecca Bennett, the arguable frontrunner in the primary. He also has a connection to a cosmetics company currently being sued.
Five months *should* be enough time to get over any hurt feelings. Mills and Platner need to pledge to endorse each other regardless of the primary outcome.
Are Mills and Platner going after each other, or is most of the nastiness among primary voters duking it out with each other? My impression is that it's the latter, though I don't know much about what's happening on the ground.
I hope she loses big time. I don't care if she loses to Mills or Platner. Sick and tired of her so-called moderate Republican schtick.
Both Mills and Platner need to pummel her with ads featuring her holding that red MAGA hat in the Oval Office as betraying Mainers and putting TACO first instead of them.
This gave me a thought. Do you know if people ever run ads attacking the incumbent as a way of winning over primary voters? I think that could work, since it would show that you're the one taking the fight to the "enemy", so to speak, in an era when voters are motivated more by negative partisanship than anything else.
Good. They need to drag her on this first and foremost. It’s an effective attack that cuts across both party lines. I don’t know why Gideon abandoned it so quickly in 2020.
Interesting that Destiny Wells is challenging Representative Andre Carson in the 7th Indiana Congressional District. She previously ran for secretary of state and two years later for AG with 41.2% of the vote to Rokita's 58%. I was sorry that she did not become state party chair because she understands tough campaigns. The Democratic party establishment in Indiana needs shaking up, and so far, I'm not overly impressed with the current chair.
There are now two Democrats and an Independent who have filed to oppose Rudy Yakym III in the 2nd Congressional district. I do not yet know enough about them to comment. Both of the Democrats filed close to the deadline. The Independent may have filed earlier, as he has filled out the information on Ballotpedia and has a developed website. Part of what Democrats need to win in the 2nd district is someone willing to campaign not just in the urban areas but in the large swarths of rural areas.
Part of the problem that candidates in Indiana have is that if they run and lose, they never run again. However, it is important to get your name out statewide. In the nomination for the Democratic candidate for AG, Wells was the only declared candidate, and she started early. Near the end of that period, before the Democratic state convention where the candidate for that office would be chosen, another candidate jumped in, who was rather weak but had some support amongst the established party. Wells had to divert some resources from the statewide battle against Rokita to fend off one from her own party.
Bottoms seems to be in the lead but is stuck at a hard ceiling of 40. That doesn't bode well for her chances of winning a runoff, though it does for leading round 1.
I always disregard informed ballot, but yeah, the regular numbers are not bad.
Yeah, the precise wording of how the people polled are "informed" really matters. Does the pollster generally publish that? Anyways, lots of opportunity for manipulation here.
Ron Brownstein was on with Bill Kristol on Sunday talking about the Senate races up this cycle. Brownstein said for Dems to have a chance in Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, Trump's numbers with white working class voters would have to be in the 30s on election day.
And "working class" is taken to mean no college education, I think, instead of needing to work for a living. Am I remembering that right?
Correct.
Thanks. It's so absolutely stupid. When did they decide to do that?
Well, presumably we’re not done counting GOP retirements.
Interesting. Shame the TX gerrymander went through and they can’t both stick around
Al Green is 80.
79, but tomato tomato
True. I prefer Menefee fwiw but Green’s not driftwood compared to a lot of Reps his age
I like Green but I want to see a new generation in politics and he should stop trying to insinuate that Menefee is funded by AIPAC. There’s zero evidence of that.
Oooof he did that? Hmm.
Perhaps Al Green can gift his highly-articulate cane to Christian Menefee?
Yeah, he's 69. He could potentially serve a few terms, but the important thing would be to win now.
Whereabouts in OK?
Extremely rural, west of Tulsa and just north of Stillwater
Thanks!
Not exactly fertile ground for Dems, usually!
Maybe it's a health issue? Or he just hates it there
Has to be a health issue because he's a been a reliable vote for Johnson and doesn't seem like someone who'd pretty much end their majority by resigning early. My guess is someone knows he's sick or something and that's where the rumors are coming from.
Men, especially Gen Z men aren't thrilled about the ongoing coverup of the Epstein Files either.
When was the last time Democrats carried men in a midterm?
I respect people like this and Jared Golden for retiring in good years for us. I'm probably forgetting some.
Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, Tony Evers and Tim Walz are good examples (and happen to be Midwesterners apart from Shaheen)
Dems should easily hold this. Trump barely won it and it voted for Casey.
Come on...we can do better than 2018!
Interesting seeing reactions to this poll, on the one hand more and more pollsters showing Trump's approval in the 37-39% range is pretty bad for them, on the other hand some seem disappointed in "only" a Dem +6 edge on the generic ballot. And this is where I think overly focusing on margin (Dem minus GOP number) can be a little misleading, at least at this stage. I don't think this poll is telling us to expect Dems to get 53% on election day and Republicans 47%. I also don't think Republicans are only going to get 38% in the end, but certainly I think it's a very heavy lift for them getting from 38% to 47% to maintain that 6 point margin. It's no accident the GOP number and Trump's approval are very close!
I don’t how good the candidate is the Republicans nominated, but Mejia’s election is not a given in this type of a district. We’ll have to see what kind of financial commitment the Republicans make. She needs to make Trump her opponent and hammer it over and over again.
I was referring to the special election.
Do I agree that’s what Republicans think? As I said, we’ll have to see how much they invest, and how Democrats respond. I’ve said they could win the race, but given the environment, it will be tough.
I agree, she'll most likely win.in this environment but she'll struggle in a normal year. This is not some blue urban district where a far left candidate doesn't have to sweat. We should be pushing district appropriate candidates.
This is the right analysis I think. She shouldn't have any problem in 2026 and is probably ok in 2028 (pending the R nominee for both prez and this district), but I'd consider this tossup at best in 2030 if it is a Presidem midterm.
If NJ does mid-decade redistricting Democrats should draw her into a successor to Pou's seat connecting Mejia's home base in Bloomfield to Paterson. Pou's almost 70 anyway, and that configuration gets a bluer seat than both 9 and 11 currently are.
This could allow a more manistream candidate to take over in NJ-11, like newly elected assemblywoman Marisa Sweeney.
Are there other examples of a progressive representing a district like this? Katie Porter is the only one I can maybe think of, but her district had Irvine in it. There are no big universities in NJ-11 right?
Seton Hall, Montclair State, Drew, and Fairleigh Dickinson's Morris campus are here. William Paterson is right on the border with the 9th.
I doubt any Republican could win in this district in 2026, and she'll probably be fine in 2028, but she really isn't the right person for a future Dem midterm. Wouldn't be shocked that if she survives 2030, Bloomfield (her home) is drawn into a bluer district.
I’m glad he lost, but really love his statement.
We've always talked about foreign elections.
A lot of the people here are commenters who have been active on other projects which has led to this site, some of them go back 10-15 years, to something called the Swing State Project, and then as part of Daily Kos Elections. The comments here and on the discord are much broader than the editorial focus of the Daily Digests and other staff posts here, if that helps.
Stop being a dick or you'll be out of here real fast.
We used to cover foreign elections extensively: https://www.dailykos.com/users/daily%20kos%20elections%20international?filter=stories
We only stopped because we didn't have the bandwidth any longer. I'd love to get back to it one day.
Anyhow, I am going to keep a real, REAL short leash on Israel-related discussions, and if people don't behave themselves immaculately, they'll go away. But as a general rule, foreign elections are welcome in the comments.
Thank you! Both for your clarification, your openness – and the short leash. The latter, sadly, has repeatedly been proven to be absolutely necessary, dating back to the days of DailyKos Elections.
PS. I really miss your coverage of foreign elections, which was stellar! Should finances at some point allow The DownBallot to increase its bandwidth and revive this, then I for one would be extremely grateful.
Thank you for doing this heavy lifting
I guess the Israeli elections website assembles data just to record it for their own purposes and isn't trying to really help researchers. Either that, or they haven't thought that part through. Either way, I salute you for working through all of that and look forward to what you come up with!
Modern Hebrew is usually not written with the diacritics, btw. If you go to any Israeli newspaper, it will be just Hebrew characters, no pronunciation marks.
I'm still waiting for the DCCC to add Boebert to this list. (if Ogles is there, why not?), but it's insane her old seat that she almost lost is not on the target list either. Was within 10 for president and 5 for congress in 2024.
They also seem to be having cold feet on adding NJ-02, FL-04, NE-01, NY-02, and the newly open NV-02. Plus a few more in the 15-20 range with F-tier GOP incumbents (IN-05, AZ-08, etc.)
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/10/congressional-candidate-made-no-negativity-pledge-after-failing-to-get-help-finding-dirt-on-rival-00771175
NJ-7: Businessman Brian Varela, despite starting a "no negativity" campaign as a Democrat, actually tried to convince his primary opponents to orchestrate a smear campaign against Rebecca Bennett, the arguable frontrunner in the primary. He also has a connection to a cosmetics company currently being sued.
The fundraising leaders seem to be Tina Shah and Bennett. What are the differences in their platforms and who is likely to win?
Bennett will win, IMO.
bennet is the strongest pick imo, been to a few of her events and she commands the room and can beat kean
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/02/10/nation/susan-collins-reelection-campaign/
ME-Sen: Susan Collins is in for a 6th term
Let us all hope the Dem primary doesn’t fuck us over in the general.
Yes. I believe the YAY vote Susan Collins cast for Brett Kavanaugh forever damaged her credibility.
Five months *should* be enough time to get over any hurt feelings. Mills and Platner need to pledge to endorse each other regardless of the primary outcome.
Are Mills and Platner going after each other, or is most of the nastiness among primary voters duking it out with each other? My impression is that it's the latter, though I don't know much about what's happening on the ground.
Mills has largely ignored Platner. Platner sometimes takes swipes at Mills. Both seem to focus mainly on Collins though.
I don't think it's hurt feelings (unlike TX), but more.. whose flaws are bigger?
Are you worried about one specific Dem candiate over the other?
I have issues with both, but we need to flip the seat so I honestly will support the winner regardless.
I hope she loses big time. I don't care if she loses to Mills or Platner. Sick and tired of her so-called moderate Republican schtick.
Both Mills and Platner need to pummel her with ads featuring her holding that red MAGA hat in the Oval Office as betraying Mainers and putting TACO first instead of them.
This gave me a thought. Do you know if people ever run ads attacking the incumbent as a way of winning over primary voters? I think that could work, since it would show that you're the one taking the fight to the "enemy", so to speak, in an era when voters are motivated more by negative partisanship than anything else.
Susan Collins in 1996: “I have pledged that if I am elected, I will only serve two terms.”
Today: Collins just announced she’s running for a sixth term.
https://x.com/dscc/status/2021224943971623120?s=20
Good. They need to drag her on this first and foremost. It’s an effective attack that cuts across both party lines. I don’t know why Gideon abandoned it so quickly in 2020.
Interesting that Destiny Wells is challenging Representative Andre Carson in the 7th Indiana Congressional District. She previously ran for secretary of state and two years later for AG with 41.2% of the vote to Rokita's 58%. I was sorry that she did not become state party chair because she understands tough campaigns. The Democratic party establishment in Indiana needs shaking up, and so far, I'm not overly impressed with the current chair.
There are now two Democrats and an Independent who have filed to oppose Rudy Yakym III in the 2nd Congressional district. I do not yet know enough about them to comment. Both of the Democrats filed close to the deadline. The Independent may have filed earlier, as he has filled out the information on Ballotpedia and has a developed website. Part of what Democrats need to win in the 2nd district is someone willing to campaign not just in the urban areas but in the large swarths of rural areas.
Not a good look for her to run for four offices in four years.
I don't know if I would count seeking the party chairmanship as "running for office" but overall I agree.
Part of the problem that candidates in Indiana have is that if they run and lose, they never run again. However, it is important to get your name out statewide. In the nomination for the Democratic candidate for AG, Wells was the only declared candidate, and she started early. Near the end of that period, before the Democratic state convention where the candidate for that office would be chosen, another candidate jumped in, who was rather weak but had some support amongst the established party. Wells had to divert some resources from the statewide battle against Rokita to fend off one from her own party.
Also, I don't think Carson has any liabilities in the primary that I know of.
As a race whose result will shape the 2028 presidential primary, how's Georgia's gubernatorial primary on the Dem side shaping up?
Bottoms seems to be in the lead but is stuck at a hard ceiling of 40. That doesn't bode well for her chances of winning a runoff, though it does for leading round 1.