John James voted to strip healthcare and voting rights from Americans. Why vote for someone endorsed by an adjudicated felon who can’t even keep his pool clean? Michigan deserves better.
It usually doesn't take long for the "new and fresh" post-primary pump to wear off and things to go back to the race's fundamentals, which in Texas favors Republicans (if we like to admit it or not).
Republicans consolidating around Paxton would have him doing better than 43%.
At the end of the day it's one poll, polls have error margins, it's barely summer, and we always knew Texas is difficult even if it's hopefully winnable this cycle.
So basically Paxton scooped up low-hanging Republicans. Still way too many undecideds for this to have much predictive value. Even in yesterday's 49 Paxton - 47 Talarico poll, Talarico was getting a good chunk of Cornyn voters and a huge margin among Independents. It'll be close.
Texas is notoriously tough to poll correctly and Beto's performance was greatly underestimated by pollsters when he ran in 2018. Hard to tell how representative of November's electorate is, but given the national environment and difficulty of reaching out to Hispanic voters, this poll may be easily underestimating left leaning voters. Moreover, it's using a registered voter sample, which has historically been less than reliable for predicting turnout, especially when groups like younger voters and Hispanics are a potentially major part of the electorate.
My girlfriend and I voted for Drew Warshaw for NYS Comptroller by absentee ballot. We were most impressed with his statement. I no longer considered Goyle after it was clarified for me that his claim that he could lower rates as Comptroller, without a fuller explanation of how, made no sense. BTW, my ballot seems to still be in the Jamaica Center being processed by Customs, so it will be counted but presumably won't be at the New York County Board of Elections today.
My Goyle vote was probably a screw up in hindsight. I wanted to vote for a progressive option but it appears I didn’t do my due diligence regarding research. Something for me to remember for next time.
Manufactured scandal? Anything Fox squawked about Obama during his two terms.
Quick kill scandal? NC Senate candidate Cal Cunningham not keeping it in his pants. Had he been a squeaky-clean candidate, he probably would have unseated Thom Tillis in 2020.
I would say after John McCain selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate, her propaganda about Barack Obama as a presidential nominee and what this did to the base of the GOP takes the cake. It was also a pre-cursor to the Tea Party movement that swept up the 2010 midterms and gave GOP control of the Senate back in 2014. That moment when McCain was answering a woman's question about fear of who Obama was and knocking sense into her was commendable but it was Palin who stoked this controversy about Obama in the first place. Trump did capitalize on bringing up the birth certificate nonsense but this came after Palin's rise.
It's Eric Swalwell's downfall that's probably the most significant in magnitude as the sheer nature of his predatory, womanizing agenda as covered in Politico made my jaw drop. I suppose this is in part because I happen to spend plenty of time in Dublin and Pleasanton, which are located in CA-14.
In terms of overhyped controversies, I'm sure there are some that are specific to candidates that don't leap immediately to mind for me, but another category might be narrative- or vibes-based scandals that are supposedly poised to change the tenor of an entire election cycle but just... don't, including:
- Something or other that Donna Brazile said shortly before the 2017 Virginia governor election (when it was simply OBVIOUS to those in the know that Northam was going to lose, before he won in a landslide)
- John Kerry's "botched joke" before the 2006 midterms (I was living in MA at the time and was FURIOUS about this and sent his office a real howler of a letter before it turned out not to matter at all)
- The comedian supporting Trump demeaning Puerto Rico before the 2024 election (alas!)
Oh, a couple of others that maybe belong in both categories:
- The Dean Scream (wildly overhyped, and yet it did seem to change the direction of the race)
- Chris Christie nailing Marco Rubio for repeating talking points in a 2016 primary debate... In hindsight, Rubio was probably never winning that race, but it did seem that like moment changed things given that it was a pretty minor attack overall
I would say the Dean Scream didn't help Howard Dean in the primaries but it wasn't what changed the course for him.
It was when Saddam Hussein was captured that the Democratic primaries started to shift the tone to being more oriented on national security and who had the best credentials to go against President Bush in the general election.
Also, John Kerry hired Mary Beth Cahill as campaign manager within weeks before the Iowa Caucus and she completely overhauled his campaign, made him more on message than before. John Edwards got traction as well, resulting in him finishing 2nd place in the Iowa Caucus, immediately below Kerry who won the Iowa Caucus.
Dean admitted later on (I believe after the 2004 presidential campaign year) that he and his campaign did not have a greater, focused strategy to move through the primaries and to the general election. For a long time, it was the anti-Iraq War agenda in his campaign that made Dean the star. With Hussein being captured, that effectively threw things off balance, especially considering Dean and Dick Gephardt were going after each other in the lead up to the IA Caucus. This is where Kerry and Edwards had the opening.
I remember the context of John Kerry's "botched joke." It happened when he was campaigning for CA Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Phil Angelides before the 2006 gubernatorial election. Angelides was one of the early supporters of Kerry's presidential campaign as far back as in 2003 while Howard Dean's candidacy was still getting traction. I remember seeing him speak at the Pyramid Ale Brewery in Berkeley post-2004 after Kerry lost the election within days of him announcing his gubernatorial campaign.
However, it wasn't Kerry that affected Angelides' candidacy so much as Angelides himself. His gubernatorial campaign was really lame duck and became nothing more than a tying Governor Schwarzenegger to President Bush. Angelides blew a perfect opportunity considering Republicans nationally got their asses handed to them in the 2006 midterms with the Iraq War, lead up to privitize Social Security by Bush & his administration, etc.
Tony Hinchliffe, the comedian who spoke at Trump's rally, didn't impact the presidential election at all. Sure, Puerto Ricans and Latinos in general did get pissed about this but the whole "controversy" did nothing to actually result in Kamala Harris benefitting votes wise. In fact, the election results for her in FL were much worse than what Clinton and Kerry got in the stae in 2016 and 2004 respectively. It makes me think back in 2016 when Trump was attacking this Hispanic judge who ruled against him. At that point, like with Hinchliffe, no adverse impact to Trump in the general election.
Regarding your first point, the Barack Obama tan suit "scandal", which was not a real scandal and was nothing more than a Republican effort to manufacture a political scandal out of absolutely nothing.
Regarding your second point, the Aaron Schock office decorating scandal.
The Charlotte, North Carolina city council selected Robert Harrington, an attorney that is the head of the North Carolina Bar, as the interim mayor. Incumbent Vi Lyles unexpectedly resigned recently, in a city with nearly 900 thousand people.
Interestingly enough, Harrington faced state Sen. Caleb Theodros, mayor pro tem James Mitchell, businesswoman Carrie Cook and prominent Charlotte lawyer Harold Cogdell in the selection process, but defeated Cook handily after a second round. It's possible any of those people run again in 2027.
Everything is looking good but close in a number of important contests. I think as the economy continues to sink and Trump continues to get knocked around by the Iranians the Democrats will continue to pull ahead. As a small donor I scatter my donations around but will now concentrate more on Vindman in Florida. I believe he will pull ahead more and more. I do have to keep watch on Texas and Iowa.
I don't think that is possible for a federal race here. I think it's baked in as a Cooper 5-point win (52/47), MAYBE if the environment really goes to shit? Then 7 points.
Hot damn! I wonder why there were so many more undecideds for the State Senate generic ballot than the General Assembly, as you'd think the two would be pretty similar.
Fewer seats, larger seats, and probably fewer safe seats compared to the state house probably means more to consider, especially in potentially competitive seats. That's my theory atleast
If this poll proves anywhere near accurate (and reflects actual November numbers), we could win the General Assembly in spite of the Republican gerrymander. We need to gain 14 seats for a majority. By my calculation, using the Civitas Partisan Index, there are 18 Republican held seats which are R+4 or bluer.
In order to flip the state House, the electorate has to be D+5-6 to break the GOP gerrymandered majority. It'll need to be D+8-10 to flip the state Senate.
Demoting Destin Hall to House Minority Leader would be good either way.
A legislatively referred constitutional amendment in NC can only be put to voters by a 60% vote in both state houses. It would have to take a Hungary like turnout in NC to secure a Dem supermajority.
It's not like Virginia where the General Assembly needs only a simple majority and two consecutive legislative sessions to put issues like abortion rights and marriage equality on the ballot.
I don't know if Republicans will finally agree to put an independent redistricting commission on the ballot if they lose both houses in NC. Maybe they will.
If Dems flip both chambers they need to threaten to gerrymander in favor of the Dems if the Republicans don't agree to put independent redistricting on the ballot, since maps only need a simple majority
Republicans can either play ball or get locked out of power until they get lucky
Using Davesredistricting and the data there, if we go by the 2020 Governor's race numbers, it wouldn't be enough alone to hand the Dems a majority in both chambers, but there are a handful of seats that are within the "competitive" range, even just barely. Assuming a MoV of D+5 at the top of the ballot, a handful of Dems would have to outperform in:
3 State Senate seats
4 State House seats
In both chambers, assuming a D+5 performance, all 3 state sen seats and 4 state house seats are decided by less than 6 points. So even in an environment I'd consider "weak" for Cooper this year, both chambers are within reach. There are a few things to consider, both against flipping the chambers and in favor of that outcome. The data I'm using doesn't account for incumbency nor candidate quality, it's just pure numbers. I did allude to the latter point as something that could *help* the Dems claim the majority, but it could also result in us coming up short if we have a bad candidate or if the GOP has a good candidate in each district.
But I've also been looking at this through Roy Cooper's 2020 victory, where he won by five points. Given the national environment, Cooper's personal popularity, and Whatley being an utterly shit candidate, I think we're going to see a much more Democratic environment both topballot and downballot. My range for topballot would probably be from 53-46 to 55-45 in favor of Cooper. In any case, I don't think he'll be performing worse than he did in 2020, so the Dems have a lot of room for growth. Looking at the polls above, the state house generic margin is looking great and if it holds should lead to a flip. The state senate margin less so, and while a D+5 environment *could* lead to a flip, it'd be skin of the teeth and heavily reliant on individual candidate qualities, so work should be done to expand that lead. Which, again, I think there's only room to grow, and there are more undecided voters in regards to that as well. Given that both state legislature gen ballots roughly match the trend of the senate election's poll, I think as long as Cooper wins by a large margin (as he seems poised to do), the Dems have a shot at flipping the state legislature.
It's election day here in NY, and in #NY17 I voted early (on day one actually) for Cait Conley. Beyond just plain liking her, I long suspected that Cait was the Democrat the Mike Lawler and Republicans feared the most. And in the last few weeks they have confirmed that suspicion over and over again with GOP PACs masquerading as 'progressive' PACs, Lawler's 'anonymous' text messages targeting Cait, and Lawler's own staffers encouraging religious bloc voters to cast a ballot for Democrat Beth Davidson.
AK Sen: There are new developments in the question of whether the Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, can appear on the ballot in November in the race against the incumbent, Republican senator Daniel S. Sullivan.
You may recall that last Monday, the Division of Elections, led by a prominent Republican, struck Daniel J. Sullivan from the ballot, claiming that his intent was to confuse voters and therefore, he did not file in good faith.
Since then, a nonpartisan attorney who advises state lawmakers on legal matters issued an opinion that the Division of Elections could not strike Sullivan from the ballot based on its criteria. Indeed, he cited the same body’s argument in court two years ago when it refused to strike from the ballot a Democratic candidate.
Yesterday, two things happened. First, there was a legislative hearing over whether the Division of Elections has the authority it purported to exercise. And second, Sullivan filed a lawsuit in state court seeking an order overturning the Division of Elections decision and reinstating his name on the ballot. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28304392-3an-26-07485ci-notice-of-appeal-6-22-2026/
Carlisle, Pennsylvania - Trump will headline some evil business event here in July with Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA). The usual suspects, Palantir, SpaceX and Boeing, will also be represented, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is the keynote speaker.
I use PNC, which thankfully has an icy relationship with the administration. However, it was one of the banks leading up to 2008 that was "too big to fail", and the practices of longtime CEO Bill Demchak are part of the reason the 2008 crisis happened.
I am a Chase customer and have had a better experience with them since signing up with them last year compared to previous banks. Could be that the Bay Area locations I go to (Berkeley and Pleasanton included) are run well. Customer service in-person is smooth, tech savvy and the online banking is perfect. Chase also by contrast to the other big banks has a better relationship with minorities, namely the black community, as it's at least tried to invest millions to address racial wealth gap issues.
Whether the bank has actually made an impact that's significant is up for debate but when I hear a bank that's actually evil, it's Wells Fargo. The horror stories black customers have had over loans or anything mortgage related at WF, namely as it relates to home loans, have been well-documented. I do in fact have a checking account at Patelco Credit Union but mainly as backup in case. If say I end up migrating away from Chase at some point, it may end up being either Mechanics Bank or US Bank as I just don't know about regional banks anymore (especially with First Republic Bank shooting itself in the foot).
By contrast, formerly being in BofA for decades, I've seen the bank become overly bureaucratic, systematic and workers overworked. CEO Brian Moynihan is absolutely useless and is doing nothing to change BofA's culture other than to piss more former customers like myself with draconian decisions like no more temporary debit cards (excuse is, concerns over hacking) closing branches (which Chase does far less of btw) and exhausting online banking experience.
Chase opened their first branch in NC back in 2019 and are expanding their presence in major metro areas. It’s a nice change seeing more banks pop up rather than close extra branches with BOA and Wells Fargo have.
At the movie theater I used to work at, there’s literally five different banks within walking distance: Chase, First Horizon, Wells Fargo, BOA and PNC. I’ve never seen so many banks packed together in that area before.
Also, Chase has a track record BofA doesn't- Actually take risks and acquire troubled banks like First Republic Bank, Washington Mutual, etc. instead of being asleep behind the wheel with stupid decisions like BofA buying Countrywide Mortgage. And they've been able to come out stronger with no liabilities to their bottom line whereas BofA was having to deal with damage control for years with the C.M. acquisition as a result of the Great Recession. Pre-Great Recession, Chase had no branch locations in the Bay Area. Now look at how far the company has advanced.
It's so very ironic that First Republic was originally a separate bank that got acquired by BofA, separated from BofA post-Great Recession, and then got acquired by Chase. Goes to show BofA really has no idea what the hell it's doing.
I bank with a credit union after leaving Truist (which was BB&T back then). The benefits of a bank without the fees, better products, and prompt U.S.-based customer service.
The Senate passed an Iran war powers resolution, but it's likely to be vetoed by Trump.
It was 50-48. Cassidy, Murkowski, Collins and Paul voted with Democrats; McConnell and McCormick didn't vote (the former is currently hospitalized), and Fetterman voted with Republicans.
I am very surprised that Tillis did not vote with the renegade Republicans, less so that Cornyn did not, and not at all about Fetterman's continued treachery.
I have no idea if Fetterman's gonna run for re-election or not. On the one hand he clearly hates this job. On the other hand his ego might be too big to let himself get replaced by a more progressive or even just less insane challenger
Conor Lamb is the most high profile potential candidate and my gut feeling is he's likely going to jump in the Senate primary race irrespective of whether John Fetterman runs for re-election or not.
But if Fetterman doesn't run for re-election, his health issues may factor in as well.
SC-Gov: Attorney General Alan Wilson handily defeated Lieutenant Governor Pam Evette in the Republican runoff for this position.
The son of Rep. Joe Wilson, Alan Wilson is likely to succeed Gov. Henry McMaster, with his running mate, state Sen. Mike Reichenbach, likely to become lieutenant governor. They will face Democratic nominee state Rep. Jermaine Johnson.
Wilson and Evette were both endorsed by Trump, though Evette was first to get the endorsement.
I'd say it falls just shy of insurmountable. Very likely he wins but scenarios where he doesn't aren't impossible to imagine (e.g. if later counted ballots shift in a different direction).
John James voted to strip healthcare and voting rights from Americans. Why vote for someone endorsed by an adjudicated felon who can’t even keep his pool clean? Michigan deserves better.
Jocelyn Benson is going to steamroll him or whoever the GOP nominee is after August.
Speaking of the Michigan governorship, what do people think is next in Mike Duggan’s political career? That’s if he even has one now.
I'm sure he'll make a lovely lobbyist /s
The political judgment he exhibited this cycle ought to disqualify him from any job requiring common sense.
U of Texas/YouGov poll:
Paxton 43 Talarico 42
Abbott 47 Hinojosa 40
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/june-poll-finds-a-competitive-u-s-senate-race-in-texas-amid-continuing-economic-concerns-data-center-backlash
Your lips to God's ears but I honestly am not so sure.
He'll be ahead if he actually is winning indies by 30 pts (possible) and getting 15-20% or so of Cornyn voters (also possible).
He most definitely is not. He may win, but there's no scenario in which is is "way ahead". This is Texas we are talking about.
I'm hoping for Hinojosa to close the gap with Abbott! He needs to go!
Those undecideds are very R leaning. They virtually all need to stay home for us to stand a chance. I feel like Texas is Lucy with the football
It usually doesn't take long for the "new and fresh" post-primary pump to wear off and things to go back to the race's fundamentals, which in Texas favors Republicans (if we like to admit it or not).
Ughh; hopefully this is an overly conservative sample.
Their polling seems all over the place. Talarico +8 now Paxton +1?
Can be explained by Republicans consolidating around Paxton.
Or that independents made up only 9% of the sample after weighting, which is insane.
Republicans consolidating around Paxton would have him doing better than 43%.
At the end of the day it's one poll, polls have error margins, it's barely summer, and we always knew Texas is difficult even if it's hopefully winnable this cycle.
They are far more consolidated than they were in the previous poll. It's quite clear in the poll writeup.
From this pollster, the race went from
Talarico 42 - Paxton 34 in April to
Talarico 42 - Paxton 43 now.
So basically Paxton scooped up low-hanging Republicans. Still way too many undecideds for this to have much predictive value. Even in yesterday's 49 Paxton - 47 Talarico poll, Talarico was getting a good chunk of Cornyn voters and a huge margin among Independents. It'll be close.
Texas is notoriously tough to poll correctly and Beto's performance was greatly underestimated by pollsters when he ran in 2018. Hard to tell how representative of November's electorate is, but given the national environment and difficulty of reaching out to Hispanic voters, this poll may be easily underestimating left leaning voters. Moreover, it's using a registered voter sample, which has historically been less than reliable for predicting turnout, especially when groups like younger voters and Hispanics are a potentially major part of the electorate.
Officially voted this morning. Voted for Effie Philips-Staley for Congress and Raj Goyle for Comptroller personally.
Obviously if you are in a state with primaries and haven’t voted yet, please do.
My girlfriend and I voted for Drew Warshaw for NYS Comptroller by absentee ballot. We were most impressed with his statement. I no longer considered Goyle after it was clarified for me that his claim that he could lower rates as Comptroller, without a fuller explanation of how, made no sense. BTW, my ballot seems to still be in the Jamaica Center being processed by Customs, so it will be counted but presumably won't be at the New York County Board of Elections today.
How in danger is DiNapoli? Doesn't sound like much if the opposition is split.
Yes, he could easily be re-elected as a result. I think he's by no means terrible, though.
my brother in new york voted for dinapoli, this morning. Albany New York local paper endorsement and Leticia james endorsement moved him
My Goyle vote was probably a screw up in hindsight. I wanted to vote for a progressive option but it appears I didn’t do my due diligence regarding research. Something for me to remember for next time.
DiNapoli was never in trouble. There isn't anything to run against. The ads I saw from his opponents didn't even mention DiNapoli's name.
That could be smart strategy sometimes, I guess.
Got another question for posters here.
Of all the political scandals you remember, which ones do you recall being the most idiotic, not-an-issue manufactured controversies?
Conversely, which scandals do you remember most quickly killing a candidate?
Barack Obama tan suit and Eric Swalwell rape, respectively.
Manufactured scandal? Anything Fox squawked about Obama during his two terms.
Quick kill scandal? NC Senate candidate Cal Cunningham not keeping it in his pants. Had he been a squeaky-clean candidate, he probably would have unseated Thom Tillis in 2020.
Almost everything claimed about Biden during his presidency, too, except that he's old, etc.
Even though Biden became quite unpopular, I've heard that the anti-Biden MAGA merch never sold well. They still wanted the Obama and Hillary stuff.
An old white dude just isn't as threatening as a woman or a Black guy, methinks.
I would say after John McCain selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate, her propaganda about Barack Obama as a presidential nominee and what this did to the base of the GOP takes the cake. It was also a pre-cursor to the Tea Party movement that swept up the 2010 midterms and gave GOP control of the Senate back in 2014. That moment when McCain was answering a woman's question about fear of who Obama was and knocking sense into her was commendable but it was Palin who stoked this controversy about Obama in the first place. Trump did capitalize on bringing up the birth certificate nonsense but this came after Palin's rise.
It's Eric Swalwell's downfall that's probably the most significant in magnitude as the sheer nature of his predatory, womanizing agenda as covered in Politico made my jaw drop. I suppose this is in part because I happen to spend plenty of time in Dublin and Pleasanton, which are located in CA-14.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/04/18/eric-swalwell-sexual-assault-downfall-00871824
Mark Foley comes to mind. Even his name was removed from his office the day of the scandal breaking
In terms of overhyped controversies, I'm sure there are some that are specific to candidates that don't leap immediately to mind for me, but another category might be narrative- or vibes-based scandals that are supposedly poised to change the tenor of an entire election cycle but just... don't, including:
- Something or other that Donna Brazile said shortly before the 2017 Virginia governor election (when it was simply OBVIOUS to those in the know that Northam was going to lose, before he won in a landslide)
- John Kerry's "botched joke" before the 2006 midterms (I was living in MA at the time and was FURIOUS about this and sent his office a real howler of a letter before it turned out not to matter at all)
- The comedian supporting Trump demeaning Puerto Rico before the 2024 election (alas!)
Oh, a couple of others that maybe belong in both categories:
- The Dean Scream (wildly overhyped, and yet it did seem to change the direction of the race)
- Chris Christie nailing Marco Rubio for repeating talking points in a 2016 primary debate... In hindsight, Rubio was probably never winning that race, but it did seem that like moment changed things given that it was a pretty minor attack overall
The Dean scream was utterly ridiculous.
What forced Dean to withdraw if not the ridiculous media reaction to the Dean scream? (Agreeing with you.)
I would say the Dean Scream didn't help Howard Dean in the primaries but it wasn't what changed the course for him.
It was when Saddam Hussein was captured that the Democratic primaries started to shift the tone to being more oriented on national security and who had the best credentials to go against President Bush in the general election.
Also, John Kerry hired Mary Beth Cahill as campaign manager within weeks before the Iowa Caucus and she completely overhauled his campaign, made him more on message than before. John Edwards got traction as well, resulting in him finishing 2nd place in the Iowa Caucus, immediately below Kerry who won the Iowa Caucus.
Dean admitted later on (I believe after the 2004 presidential campaign year) that he and his campaign did not have a greater, focused strategy to move through the primaries and to the general election. For a long time, it was the anti-Iraq War agenda in his campaign that made Dean the star. With Hussein being captured, that effectively threw things off balance, especially considering Dean and Dick Gephardt were going after each other in the lead up to the IA Caucus. This is where Kerry and Edwards had the opening.
I remember the context of John Kerry's "botched joke." It happened when he was campaigning for CA Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Phil Angelides before the 2006 gubernatorial election. Angelides was one of the early supporters of Kerry's presidential campaign as far back as in 2003 while Howard Dean's candidacy was still getting traction. I remember seeing him speak at the Pyramid Ale Brewery in Berkeley post-2004 after Kerry lost the election within days of him announcing his gubernatorial campaign.
However, it wasn't Kerry that affected Angelides' candidacy so much as Angelides himself. His gubernatorial campaign was really lame duck and became nothing more than a tying Governor Schwarzenegger to President Bush. Angelides blew a perfect opportunity considering Republicans nationally got their asses handed to them in the 2006 midterms with the Iraq War, lead up to privitize Social Security by Bush & his administration, etc.
Tony Hinchliffe, the comedian who spoke at Trump's rally, didn't impact the presidential election at all. Sure, Puerto Ricans and Latinos in general did get pissed about this but the whole "controversy" did nothing to actually result in Kamala Harris benefitting votes wise. In fact, the election results for her in FL were much worse than what Clinton and Kerry got in the stae in 2016 and 2004 respectively. It makes me think back in 2016 when Trump was attacking this Hispanic judge who ruled against him. At that point, like with Hinchliffe, no adverse impact to Trump in the general election.
"Legitimate r*pe" pretty much vaporized Todd Akin's Senate campaign instantly.
If he had just shut up after winning the GOP nomination, there's a good chance he would have eked out a victory over McCaskill.
Regarding your first point, the Barack Obama tan suit "scandal", which was not a real scandal and was nothing more than a Republican effort to manufacture a political scandal out of absolutely nothing.
Regarding your second point, the Aaron Schock office decorating scandal.
Trump saw Schock's tacky decor and said "Hold my candelabra!"
Hillary's emails and Gary Hart
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/charlotte-interim-mayor-selected-by-city-council/275-3bb41ead-80fd-41db-adb7-a16d1a64db18
The Charlotte, North Carolina city council selected Robert Harrington, an attorney that is the head of the North Carolina Bar, as the interim mayor. Incumbent Vi Lyles unexpectedly resigned recently, in a city with nearly 900 thousand people.
Interestingly enough, Harrington faced state Sen. Caleb Theodros, mayor pro tem James Mitchell, businesswoman Carrie Cook and prominent Charlotte lawyer Harold Cogdell in the selection process, but defeated Cook handily after a second round. It's possible any of those people run again in 2027.
Access denied. I guess that website is inaccessible in Germany? Why did Lyles resign?
To spend more time with her family, apparently. A new mayor will be elected to succeed Harrington in 2027.
She couldn't have waited till the end of her term? Is some member of her family terminally ill or something?
The opposite, allegedly she's in failing health.
https://www.whqr.org/2026-05-07/explainer-what-we-know-about-what-prompted-charlotte-mayor-lyles-resignation
Sad.
Everything is looking good but close in a number of important contests. I think as the economy continues to sink and Trump continues to get knocked around by the Iranians the Democrats will continue to pull ahead. As a small donor I scatter my donations around but will now concentrate more on Vindman in Florida. I believe he will pull ahead more and more. I do have to keep watch on Texas and Iowa.
I think Roy Cooper could win by double digits here in NC, depending on how bad things get for the GOP nationally.
The fact that the NC GOP majority legislature is still fighting over a budget is ticking off right-leaning independents and moderate R voters too.
I don't think that is possible for a federal race here. I think it's baked in as a Cooper 5-point win (52/47), MAYBE if the environment really goes to shit? Then 7 points.
I didn't think Phil Berger would lose his primary either, so stranger things have happened.
In his past campaigns for governor and AG, Cooper had to deal with presidential coattails. That won't be the case in this cycle.
(That being said, I still think he wins by single digits in the end, but a double-digit win won't surprise me.)
right, my 52/47 bakes in a good environment. When he fought Trump coattails, he won by 1% (or even less), despite being Democratic Jesus.
I can't believe I'm saying this but I agree. Cooper really could clear a double digit win.
And that would not only help the down ballot legislative races, but hopefully get Justice Anita Earls over 51%.
Amazingly strong numbers from NC Poll (Catawba College–YouGov):
Sen: Cooper 48%-Whatley 34% (905 weighted LVs)
U.S. House generic ballot: Dems 46%- Reps 37%
NC General Assembly generic ballot: Dems 44%- Reps 38%
NC State Senate generic ballot: Dems 40%- Reps 35%
(Online survey conducted by YouGov of 1,000 weighted North Carolinians June 1-10, M/E +/-3.83%)
https://www.catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougovsurvey27/
Hot damn! I wonder why there were so many more undecideds for the State Senate generic ballot than the General Assembly, as you'd think the two would be pretty similar.
Fewer seats, larger seats, and probably fewer safe seats compared to the state house probably means more to consider, especially in potentially competitive seats. That's my theory atleast
If this poll proves anywhere near accurate (and reflects actual November numbers), we could win the General Assembly in spite of the Republican gerrymander. We need to gain 14 seats for a majority. By my calculation, using the Civitas Partisan Index, there are 18 Republican held seats which are R+4 or bluer.
In order to flip the state House, the electorate has to be D+5-6 to break the GOP gerrymandered majority. It'll need to be D+8-10 to flip the state Senate.
Demoting Destin Hall to House Minority Leader would be good either way.
I'm just going by this: https://www.johnlocke.org/introducing-the-2026-civitas-partisan-index/
Still, the poll is Dem+6 so there should be a shot at it.
If only Hall was in a competitive seat himself. But Caldwell County is far from that.
Need an independent commission referred to a statewide vote immediately in that case.
Absolutely. Dems should do it in PA and WI if they get trifectas there as well.
If we get trifectas in PA, WI, MI and/or MN, we should implement a gerrymander THEN create a commission for future redistricting.
Or do both at the same time. Thankfully MI already does have a commission.
A legislatively referred constitutional amendment in NC can only be put to voters by a 60% vote in both state houses. It would have to take a Hungary like turnout in NC to secure a Dem supermajority.
It's not like Virginia where the General Assembly needs only a simple majority and two consecutive legislative sessions to put issues like abortion rights and marriage equality on the ballot.
I don't know if Republicans will finally agree to put an independent redistricting commission on the ballot if they lose both houses in NC. Maybe they will.
At a minimum, we should add the Governor back into the redistricting process.
That would require a constitutional amendment too and NC Rs would NEVER let a Dem governor have veto power over their precious maps.
If Dems flip both chambers they need to threaten to gerrymander in favor of the Dems if the Republicans don't agree to put independent redistricting on the ballot, since maps only need a simple majority
Republicans can either play ball or get locked out of power until they get lucky
Using Davesredistricting and the data there, if we go by the 2020 Governor's race numbers, it wouldn't be enough alone to hand the Dems a majority in both chambers, but there are a handful of seats that are within the "competitive" range, even just barely. Assuming a MoV of D+5 at the top of the ballot, a handful of Dems would have to outperform in:
3 State Senate seats
4 State House seats
In both chambers, assuming a D+5 performance, all 3 state sen seats and 4 state house seats are decided by less than 6 points. So even in an environment I'd consider "weak" for Cooper this year, both chambers are within reach. There are a few things to consider, both against flipping the chambers and in favor of that outcome. The data I'm using doesn't account for incumbency nor candidate quality, it's just pure numbers. I did allude to the latter point as something that could *help* the Dems claim the majority, but it could also result in us coming up short if we have a bad candidate or if the GOP has a good candidate in each district.
But I've also been looking at this through Roy Cooper's 2020 victory, where he won by five points. Given the national environment, Cooper's personal popularity, and Whatley being an utterly shit candidate, I think we're going to see a much more Democratic environment both topballot and downballot. My range for topballot would probably be from 53-46 to 55-45 in favor of Cooper. In any case, I don't think he'll be performing worse than he did in 2020, so the Dems have a lot of room for growth. Looking at the polls above, the state house generic margin is looking great and if it holds should lead to a flip. The state senate margin less so, and while a D+5 environment *could* lead to a flip, it'd be skin of the teeth and heavily reliant on individual candidate qualities, so work should be done to expand that lead. Which, again, I think there's only room to grow, and there are more undecided voters in regards to that as well. Given that both state legislature gen ballots roughly match the trend of the senate election's poll, I think as long as Cooper wins by a large margin (as he seems poised to do), the Dems have a shot at flipping the state legislature.
If our state wasn't gerrymandered, we'd be in great shape for getting a legislative trifecta for Gov Stein to work with in 2027.
I wish Catawba had included 2018 polling in their survey, so that people can compare the polling and see how bluer it is.
It's election day here in NY, and in #NY17 I voted early (on day one actually) for Cait Conley. Beyond just plain liking her, I long suspected that Cait was the Democrat the Mike Lawler and Republicans feared the most. And in the last few weeks they have confirmed that suspicion over and over again with GOP PACs masquerading as 'progressive' PACs, Lawler's 'anonymous' text messages targeting Cait, and Lawler's own staffers encouraging religious bloc voters to cast a ballot for Democrat Beth Davidson.
I don't know how much more evidence is required.
If Lawler hangs on yet again, I'm going to be very unhappy. Something about him just deeply irritates me.
Same. Which is why electing a Democrat who can defeat him is my top priority.
AK Sen: There are new developments in the question of whether the Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, can appear on the ballot in November in the race against the incumbent, Republican senator Daniel S. Sullivan.
You may recall that last Monday, the Division of Elections, led by a prominent Republican, struck Daniel J. Sullivan from the ballot, claiming that his intent was to confuse voters and therefore, he did not file in good faith.
Since then, a nonpartisan attorney who advises state lawmakers on legal matters issued an opinion that the Division of Elections could not strike Sullivan from the ballot based on its criteria. Indeed, he cited the same body’s argument in court two years ago when it refused to strike from the ballot a Democratic candidate.
Yesterday, two things happened. First, there was a legislative hearing over whether the Division of Elections has the authority it purported to exercise. And second, Sullivan filed a lawsuit in state court seeking an order overturning the Division of Elections decision and reinstating his name on the ballot. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28304392-3an-26-07485ci-notice-of-appeal-6-22-2026/
As amusing as this gambit is, I’d rather it go away. It risks making Peltola look shady.
Why? There's no evidence Democrats are behind it.
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/23/trump-mccormick-defense-summit
Carlisle, Pennsylvania - Trump will headline some evil business event here in July with Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA). The usual suspects, Palantir, SpaceX and Boeing, will also be represented, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is the keynote speaker.
I'm still mad Bob Casey lost.
What a coincidence: I cancelled my Chase accts/credit card yesterday because of a rude employee!!
I use PNC, which thankfully has an icy relationship with the administration. However, it was one of the banks leading up to 2008 that was "too big to fail", and the practices of longtime CEO Bill Demchak are part of the reason the 2008 crisis happened.
I will be honest:
I am a Chase customer and have had a better experience with them since signing up with them last year compared to previous banks. Could be that the Bay Area locations I go to (Berkeley and Pleasanton included) are run well. Customer service in-person is smooth, tech savvy and the online banking is perfect. Chase also by contrast to the other big banks has a better relationship with minorities, namely the black community, as it's at least tried to invest millions to address racial wealth gap issues.
Whether the bank has actually made an impact that's significant is up for debate but when I hear a bank that's actually evil, it's Wells Fargo. The horror stories black customers have had over loans or anything mortgage related at WF, namely as it relates to home loans, have been well-documented. I do in fact have a checking account at Patelco Credit Union but mainly as backup in case. If say I end up migrating away from Chase at some point, it may end up being either Mechanics Bank or US Bank as I just don't know about regional banks anymore (especially with First Republic Bank shooting itself in the foot).
By contrast, formerly being in BofA for decades, I've seen the bank become overly bureaucratic, systematic and workers overworked. CEO Brian Moynihan is absolutely useless and is doing nothing to change BofA's culture other than to piss more former customers like myself with draconian decisions like no more temporary debit cards (excuse is, concerns over hacking) closing branches (which Chase does far less of btw) and exhausting online banking experience.
Chase opened their first branch in NC back in 2019 and are expanding their presence in major metro areas. It’s a nice change seeing more banks pop up rather than close extra branches with BOA and Wells Fargo have.
At the movie theater I used to work at, there’s literally five different banks within walking distance: Chase, First Horizon, Wells Fargo, BOA and PNC. I’ve never seen so many banks packed together in that area before.
Also, Chase has a track record BofA doesn't- Actually take risks and acquire troubled banks like First Republic Bank, Washington Mutual, etc. instead of being asleep behind the wheel with stupid decisions like BofA buying Countrywide Mortgage. And they've been able to come out stronger with no liabilities to their bottom line whereas BofA was having to deal with damage control for years with the C.M. acquisition as a result of the Great Recession. Pre-Great Recession, Chase had no branch locations in the Bay Area. Now look at how far the company has advanced.
It's so very ironic that First Republic was originally a separate bank that got acquired by BofA, separated from BofA post-Great Recession, and then got acquired by Chase. Goes to show BofA really has no idea what the hell it's doing.
I bank with a credit union after leaving Truist (which was BB&T back then). The benefits of a bank without the fees, better products, and prompt U.S.-based customer service.
As a Pennsylvanian, I long worried that Casey wouldn't be able to survive even a mildly-hostile election cycle.
I've never been sadder to be correct.
I'm shocked Fettermen isn't there? Maybe he'll make a surprise appearance.
2030. We got this.
www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/6/23/us-senate-votes-to-halt-iran-war-bucking-trump
The Senate passed an Iran war powers resolution, but it's likely to be vetoed by Trump.
It was 50-48. Cassidy, Murkowski, Collins and Paul voted with Democrats; McConnell and McCormick didn't vote (the former is currently hospitalized), and Fetterman voted with Republicans.
I am very surprised that Tillis did not vote with the renegade Republicans, less so that Cornyn did not, and not at all about Fetterman's continued treachery.
Once again, Fetterman is as Fetterman does. He continues to give his eventual 2028 Democratic primary challenger(s) ammunition.
I have no idea if Fetterman's gonna run for re-election or not. On the one hand he clearly hates this job. On the other hand his ego might be too big to let himself get replaced by a more progressive or even just less insane challenger
Conor Lamb is the most high profile potential candidate and my gut feeling is he's likely going to jump in the Senate primary race irrespective of whether John Fetterman runs for re-election or not.
But if Fetterman doesn't run for re-election, his health issues may factor in as well.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/south-carolina-governor-runoff-results
SC-Gov: Attorney General Alan Wilson handily defeated Lieutenant Governor Pam Evette in the Republican runoff for this position.
The son of Rep. Joe Wilson, Alan Wilson is likely to succeed Gov. Henry McMaster, with his running mate, state Sen. Mike Reichenbach, likely to become lieutenant governor. They will face Democratic nominee state Rep. Jermaine Johnson.
Wilson and Evette were both endorsed by Trump, though Evette was first to get the endorsement.
SC Gov: Wilson the projected Republican winner. As expected.
Blatantly unconstitutional attempt in Kansas to say a Senate vacancy in an election year would not face election for two more years.
https://kansasreflector.com/2026/06/23/kansas-gop-leaders-alarming-plot-to-cancel-u-s-senate-elections-unfolded-in-plain-sight-last-year/
MD-5:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-maryland-us-house-5-primary.html
So far, with 29% in, Adrian Boafo leads 32-20. Question - with the remaining vote, is this lead insurmountable, or no?
I'd say it falls just shy of insurmountable. Very likely he wins but scenarios where he doesn't aren't impossible to imagine (e.g. if later counted ballots shift in a different direction).
I hope not, but there's several factors that could contribute to his win.
-the 6 million from AIPAC, as well as several more millions from crypto
-a split progressive field (Dunn, Bareebe and Blegay)
-low profile race compared to others (i.e. PA-3)
not paywalled here: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/maryland-house-results