Morning Digest: Trump and DeSantis butt heads one more time in nasty and expensive legislative race

What's a little proxy battle between friends?

Florida Republican Tom Leek (left) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (credit: Tom Leek campaign ad screenshot)

Leading Off

● FL State Senate: Next Tuesday's Republican primary for a dark red seat in the Florida state Senate is now one of the most expensive nomination contests for any office in the entire nation, as well as a proxy fight between Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Longtime state Democratic strategist Steve Schale tweeted Tuesday that more than $13 million has been spent on TV ads for the 7th District, which is more than all but three U.S. House primaries this year.

Three candidates are facing off in this pricey battle to replace their fellow Republican, termed-out state Sen. Travis Hutson, in the 7th District in Florida’s northeast. State Rep. Tom Leek, who chairs the lower chamber's influential Appropriations Committee, sports endorsements from Hutson, DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, and other prominent state and local Republicans. There's long been talk that, if Leek wins a promotion to the upper chamber, he could eventually serve as Senate president.

Leek's only primary opponent until two months ago was Gerry James, a former professional wrestler and ordained minister who lost to Hutson 56-44 in 2022 and struggled to match Leek in fundraising. Leek, though, spent weeks on the receiving end of attack ads from a group called The Truth Matters PAC before the third and final candidate, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, entered the race in June.

Shoar, who served as the top lawman in the St. Augustine area from 2005 until his retirement in 2021, quickly began airing ads arguing that the race was a choice between a Trump-aligned Republican and Leek, whom he portrayed as insufficiently conservative. Leek argued in turn that Shoar was tricking voters by implying he had Trump's backing.

"He is not endorsed by President Trump," the representative told News4JAX in July. "That’s the deception that they’re putting out there to put out their candidate that will do whatever they want."

Leek lost that line of argument earlier this month, however, when Trump endorsed Shoar. While Trump's Truth Social post did not mention either of his opponents, the Daytona Beach News-Journal's Mark Harper noted that Leek had endorsed DeSantis' doomed presidential bid the previous year.

The two frontrunners and their respective allies have continued to spend millions against one another while largely ignoring James. Leek has in his corner the state branch of Americans for Prosperity, which has long been a key part of the Koch political network, as well as the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Shoar, meanwhile, has benefited from heavy spending from The Truth Matters PAC. Leek highlighted that this outfit is being funded by trial lawyers, a group he's often feuded with while in office. One of Leek's antagonists is John Morgan, the founder of the personal injury firm Morgan & Morgan and the face of this year's amendment campaign to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida. But the man who calls himself "Pot Daddy" is no fan of Leek, and not only because the state representative opposes Amendment 3.

Leek, who is the top lawyer at an insurance agency, intensified the already public feud in May when his campaign accused Morgan of financing the attacks against him. Morgan responded by tweeting, "Rep. Tom Leek AKA Tom Leech has begun to attack me as he gears up for a Senate run. I don’t know why because I didn’t give a shit about his race. But now I do and he has awakened a sleeping dog."

Morgan has spent the ensuing months making good on that threat, and he currently has a video pinned to his X page of him accusing Leek of passing a 2022 bill that now requires Floridians to "give your lawyer a piece of the money to fix your house, which means you won't have enough money to fix your house."

Morgan went on to challenge Leek to a debate concerning homeowners insurance before adding, "You don't have the balls. Your balls—little BB balls—are on the desk of Charlie Lydecker, your employer at the insurance company." Leek's team quickly dismissed any talk that he'd accept 's challenge and highlighted his antagonist's contributions to Democrats.  

James, for his part, does not have well-heeled backers in his corner, though he's hoping that endorsements from figures like election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will help him establish himself as an alternative to the "establishment."

The Downballot

● It's our biggest news in the 21 years since we began covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own to launch a new, independent site with a name that will be very familiar to our listeners. We're calling it The Downballot, but have no fear—we'll still be bringing you this podcast weekly! In fact, our mission isn't changing at all. To learn all about our new venture, including why we're making this change and what to expect, dive right into this week's episode.

Most importantly, we're asking folks to support our work shedding light on critical but often overlooked downballot elections by becoming paid subscribers. You can do so right here: https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Of course, the world of election news hasn't slowed down one bit! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap a pair of major losses for the GOP at the ballot box in Wisconsin, where Republicans tried to kneecap the state's Democratic governor via constitutional amendment. They also zoom in on Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where a Democratic hopeful will soon get a boost from the very top of the ticket. And finally, they provide an update on the abortion rights amendment in Arizona, where the arch-conservative state Supreme Court could strike it from the ballot.

Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!

Governors

● NJ-Gov: The influential Laborers’ International Union of North America announced this week that it would support Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill if she runs for governor of New Jersey next year. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein writes that LIUNA is one of the state's most prominent unions and has access to "one of the largest PACs in the building trades union sector."

● UT-Gov: Sen. Mike Lee on Wednesday made it clear he was supporting Utah Gov. Spencer Cox even though Lee's fellow far-right Republican, state Rep. Phil Lyman, announced earlier in the week that he'd wage a write-in campaign. Lee did not directly mention Lyman, who lost the June GOP primary to Cox, even as he unsubtly tweeted, "The Primary is over … We must defeat the Democrats by uniting behind our fellow Republicans."

House

● AZ-03: A Maricopa County judge has set an Aug. 20 hearing to announce the results of the automatic recount for the July 30 Democratic primary in Arizona's safely blue 3rd District. The results certified by the county show former Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari with a 44.6-44.5 lead over former state Sen. Raquel Terán—a margin of 42 votes.

● NH-02: Businessman Vikram Mansharamani this week publicized an endorsement from former Rep. Charlie Bass, who is the last Republican to represent New Hampshire's 2nd District, ahead of his Sept. 10 primary.

Mansharamani ended June with more money available than any of the 13 Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, the Democrat who unseated Bass in 2012. Joe Biden won this constituency by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, though, and Republicans would need a lot to go right to flip it.

Ballot Measures

● AZ Ballot: The conservative majority on the Arizona Supreme Court sided with GOP legislators on Wednesday when it ruled they could describe a fetus as an "unborn human being" when summarizing the state's abortion rights amendment in the guide that will be mailed to all voters.

Abortion rights opponents, though, are hoping the state's highest court will deliver them a much bigger victory later this month by keeping the amendment from even going before voters. Arizona Right to Life is arguing that a separate 200-word summary that is set to appear on the ballot is "inherently misleading and confusing." The group appealed after a lower court judge rejected this argument, and 12 News says that the courts have an Aug. 22 deadline to make final decisions on ballot measures.

The state Supreme Court in 2018 kept an education tax measure from reaching the ballot determining it did not do enough to explain how it would function. The same body, however, allowed a similar measure to appear on the ballot two years later after concluding the summary "did not create a significant danger of confusion or unfairness." But while voters narrowly approved the plan, it was overturned in court after an unfavorable ruling from justices concerning state restrictions on education spending.

● FL Ballot, FL-Sen: A pair of new Florida polls find that, while a majority of voters back the state's abortion rights amendment, it's a few points below the 60% it needs to pass. The Canadian firm Mainstreet Research's survey for Florida Atlantic University places Amendment 4 ahead 56-21, while Suffolk University's poll for USA TODAY and WSVN-TV has the "yes" side leading 58-35.

Both polls also took a look at the battle to pass Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational legalization. Suffolk showed it passing 63-33, but Mainstreet placed "yes" ahead 56-29—still a few points short of the requisite 60%.

Only Mainstreet's release included numbers for the likely matchup between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and it gives the Republican a small 47-43 advantage. The firm's last poll in June placed Scott ahead 45-43, which was also one of the best results for Mucarsel-Powell we've seen.

National Democrats, however, have yet to announce any major ad reservations in an expensive state that Donald Trump is still favored to win. Mainstreet finds him beating Kamala Harris 49-46, while Suffolk gives him a comparable 47-42 advantage.  

Mucarsel-Powell still needs to win next Tuesday's Democratic primary before she can fully focus on Scott, but there's little indication that she'll have any trouble. Her most prominent intraparty foe, businessman Stanley Campbell, saw his campaign manager quit two weeks ago over what she described as a disorganized effort.

Poll Pile

• MT-Sen: American Pulse Research and Polling (R) for KULR-TV: Tim Sheehy (R): 51, Jon Tester (D-inc): 45

• PA-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (50-47 Harris in two-way, 48-45 Harris with third-party candidates (Jan.: 53-43 Casey)

The Montana poll did not include the two minor party candidates on the ballot.  

Ad Roundup

• MI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R); One Nation - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); Great Lakes Conservative Fund - anti-Slotkin

• PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) (here and here); One Nation - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) ($7.5 million buy)

• NH-Gov: Chuck Morse (R) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)

• CA-41: Americans 4 Security - anti-Will Rollins (D)

• MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D); DCCC - anti-Junge

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc) and the NRCC (part of $5 million buy)

• PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R) and the NRCC