Solid stuff. I looked back at the 2018 midterm results in PA, and Democrats won the generic ballot by 10.25%, with 3 seats going under 5%. If the PA generic ballot is close to this number when the November elections arrive, then PA Dems will experience 2022 Michigan in the state legislature, with the State House definitely going more blue and the State Senate finally going blue for the first time since 1993.
For Congress, this brings in a solid argument that Mackenzie and Perry are in deep trouble, with Bresnahan close behind and Fitzpatrick definitely sweating more bullet-shaped drops than in 2018.
Personally I'm surpisrsed more people haven't been talking about NH. It's an open seat in a state that goes blue federally but is completely GOP-run at the state level. The Sununu name is powerful there still, some folks are probably even confusing John with his brother who was a popular governor. Not saying that he will win but it is going to be close and some money will have to be spent there.
Something is wrong with your link to the podcast. It wants me to Upgrade to Paid even after I have logged-in. It also does not appear on your Podcast page within the Substack site for The Downballot.
Well we got there. Trump at 27% in Franklin Marshall PA poll https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2092918620619739636?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Shapiro +25 and Democrats +12 on generic ballot too
Solid stuff. I looked back at the 2018 midterm results in PA, and Democrats won the generic ballot by 10.25%, with 3 seats going under 5%. If the PA generic ballot is close to this number when the November elections arrive, then PA Dems will experience 2022 Michigan in the state legislature, with the State House definitely going more blue and the State Senate finally going blue for the first time since 1993.
For Congress, this brings in a solid argument that Mackenzie and Perry are in deep trouble, with Bresnahan close behind and Fitzpatrick definitely sweating more bullet-shaped drops than in 2018.
Hey what happened in that Senate NH poll ?? Sununu ahead ? Anyone from NH here who can provide an update on the Pappas campaign ?
Personally I'm surpisrsed more people haven't been talking about NH. It's an open seat in a state that goes blue federally but is completely GOP-run at the state level. The Sununu name is powerful there still, some folks are probably even confusing John with his brother who was a popular governor. Not saying that he will win but it is going to be close and some money will have to be spent there.
Something is wrong with your link to the podcast. It wants me to Upgrade to Paid even after I have logged-in. It also does not appear on your Podcast page within the Substack site for The Downballot.