Solid stuff. I looked back at the 2018 midterm results in PA, and Democrats won the generic ballot by 10.25%, with 3 seats going under 5%. If the PA generic ballot is close to this number when the November elections arrive, then PA Dems will experience 2022 Michigan in the state legislature, with the State House definitely going more blue and the State Senate finally going blue for the first time since 1993.
For Congress, this brings in a solid argument that Mackenzie and Perry are in deep trouble, with Bresnahan close behind and Fitzpatrick definitely sweating more bullet-shaped drops than in 2018.
Personally I'm surpisrsed more people haven't been talking about NH. It's an open seat in a state that goes blue federally but is completely GOP-run at the state level. The Sununu name is powerful there still, some folks are probably even confusing John with his brother who was a popular governor. Not saying that he will win but it is going to be close and some money will have to be spent there.
UNH is notorious for producing wild swings in their results, cycle after cycle, without ever really questioning their own methodology. I would say throw it on the pile and move on, but given the source, I'd just throw it in the trash.
I left a comment on yesterday’s post but wanted to weigh in today too. I don’t comment too much on here. But I live in NH and have been following this race closely so I thought I would opine.
I will be voting for Manzur in the Democratic primary and most of my friends will be too. It has less to do with how great she is and more to do with how awful Pappas is.
I think there are two main issues he faces with the Democratic voters.
First is his support from, and support FOR AIPAC. About a month ago, he created a short commercial thing of him endorsing them! Usually it goes the other way. People freaked out and many in the base were horrified by his unwavering endorsement of them and the statements he maid regarding their main advocacy issue.
The second issue deals with political dynasties. Many of us are so amazingly frustrated with Senators Shaheen and Hassan. I can’t even tell you how disappointed I am in them and how much I am ashamed of myself for supporting them in years past. They have completely let us down in the Senate and I am appalled aghast. They enable Trump at every turn and it’s disgusting. This may seem like hyperbole but the base is PISSED! This leads to the issue, specifically with Sen. Shaheen. Her daughter is running for the open HD-1 created by Pappas’ senate run. She is not doing as well in the polls as many would have thought because the democratic base hates her Mom. Pappas, in turn, is Shaheen’s hand chosen political successor. It’s all the old school, monied, painfully moderate Democrats who think that the succession plan engineered by Shaheen is pre-destined in a biblical sense. The rest of us think it’s stupid, undemocratic and of a bygone era. Again, the plan is Pappas taking Shaheen’s Senate seat and Shaheen Jr. taking his now open House seat.
Anyway, I’m pissed at these rich democrats who never had to work in their life and think that they are entitled to these seats.
Regarding Manzur possibly being a poor general election candidate. That’s probably correct. But Pappas is a shockingly bad candidate too. They’ll both have a fight against the Sununu name. So, I figure that I may as well go with the candidate who I agree with.
I mean you’re entirely within your right to vote for the candidate you prefer better, even if they might be “less electable” than the alternative
Regardless of how anyone here and elsewhere feels about electability, it’s very clear that “being electable” is no longer a good enough reason to vote for someone in the eyes of the Democrat base, as evidenced by El-Sayed, Nixon, Hong’s very narrow loss, and how this primary potentially being far more competitive than it had any reason to. At some point you have to stop blaming “progressives” for trying to “sabotage” elections by having the audacity to run for election, and actually start trying to appeal to voters with something besides being “electable,” regardless of whether or not you think it’s stupid.
I am a progressive of course but like, I still think moderate Democrats could still win primaries most of the time, if they would stop campaigning about bullshit like Hasan Piker or endorsing AIPAC (an organization too toxic for *Mike Rogers* to openly associate with now) or whatever Vindman was doing besides burning money and responding to any pushback with “well I’m the electable one.”
I think Piker is a dipshit with some dumb views, but good God he is not worth the energy. It’s not an issue that I have time to care about, because I’m more focused on the fact that everything is expensive as fuck and everything is poisonous, and this probably applies to a lot of other voters too. A one time condemnation is fine, whatever, but when the house minority leader is saying he’s “going to continue speaking out against Piker” it just makes me feel like we’re not going to get anything productive done.
I haven't followed Piker closely and don't intend to, but opposing bigotry, extremism and, like, pro-Maoism should never get old and will play well in general elections except with bigots and extremists. I don't want to see a Democratic Party that gets tired of condemning people who stand for terrible things. Leave that shit to the Republicans. It's already horrible and scary that they are fascist bigots!
I have never seen Piker endorse Maoism. He generally talks like an old school NYC marxist, very concerned with capitalist systems and inequities, but then again I also don't care about him and don't follow him closely so maybe I've missed stuff?
Jon Ossoff is Jewish. I suggest not complaining about Jews condemning people for making antisemitic remarks. It's really best for us not to fight about that here, but letting that comment go by without any kind of response didn't sit well with me. Maybe not discussing the correctness of incorrectness of condemning Piker should be added to the Rules of the Road, but that won't make the issue go away, and to be clear, part of the issue is to look at the analogy with the UK, where a majority of Jewish voters voted Conservative because of the prevalence of anti-Jewish bigotry and actions by Labour MPs (wait for the inevitable denial that any of that happened). Jews are a small though larger minority of the U.S. electorate than the British one, but they vote in huge percentages relative to their population, and it would be very bad to alienate them not through good policy but by causing them to stop trusting Democrats to protect them from anti-Jewish violence and hostility, and if any of you don't think those feelings are real, you don't have the same circle I have.
Centrism in a 2-party system in which one party is fascist cannot be defined as somewhere sort of halfway between the parties. That is the basic problem. I don't expect the Democratic Party to turn socialist. What I do insist is that if they do not singlemindedly fight for people's rights every day, they have no chance of staving off dictatorship. All we have to do is see how things have gotten increasingly authoritarian from Bush, Jr. through Trump I and Trump II. If the Democrats get another trifecta in the 2028 elections and it takes over in January, 2029, that's likely to be their last stand. You don't have to be a socialist to understand that, but you can't be a naive idiot like some of the Democratic Leadership seem to be; you must be a clear-seeing fighter, every day. Otherwise, get the fuck out of office and give way to someone who is!
Replied to your post on the other thread, I'll put it here as well:
My point about NH-01 had nothing to do with Shaheen (or Sullivan or the progressive candidates), but about the candidates with no campaigns to speak of with strangely high negative ratings among socialists and progressives.
While Pappas is clearly being handed a seat by the establishment and was their favored candidate in 2018, that doesn't make him lazy or a bad candidate. He's won a swing seat for 4 cycles, running roughly even with Biden, winning by 9 points in 2022 (which wasn't a great year for NH Republicans but not a terrible one either) and then overperforming Harris by 6 points. Whatever you think of him and his policies (he's certainly well to my right), he's a strong candidate. I'd also push back against the notion than Hassan and Shaheen have enabled Trump at every turn, as while they've voted with him too much, they still usually vote against him.
I understand your decision to vote for Manzur. However, when you are making the assertion that we have rich Democrats who have never worked their whole life being the pervasive argument, I’m going to have to respectfully disagree with you here with Chris Pappas.
Influence, incumbency and connections are what make the establishment the way it is. Wealthy donors and the influence the Democratic Party has had as a result of the issue with these donors is what the root of the problem is. Just from what I know about Pappas, he has in fact been elected multiple times before he started serving in the House.
Also, Pappas is a co-owner of his family business, Puritan Backroom, which has been around for decades under ownership of his family going back a couple of generations. This is a restaurant and ice cream shop, not the Hilton family empire or Trump Organization. I did a quick check on Pappas’ net worth but it’s barely over $1 million. Nowhere near what Darrell Issa and Mark Warner have in wealth, where they are multi millionaires.
Pappas is also a talented politician and very likeable guy, as numerous NH contributors have stated over the year, who has long been considered a rising star in the NH party. Calling him awful or saying he has an uphill battle against Sununu is laughable.
I’ve met him dozens of times. He’s definitely polite. I’m not too sure I’d say likeable. The poll out today shows him down to Sununu. That’s just facts. I’m not laughing because I want to win the senate too. I’m just trying to give an honest, on the ground, assessment.
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OK-Ref - Oklahoma (April 2027) will join Michigan (November 2026) and Illinois (no later than November 2028) in having referendums on the ballot on whether or not to call a state constituional convention.
I vacillate on this and look forward to the arguments on both sides. On the one hand, if we (IL) were to write a new constitution, we could eliminate the prohibition against a graduated income tax, which would be great, and give some teeth to the provision that the State should provide the "primary responsibility" for education. On the other hand, the crazies will try to insert something crazy or delete some good protections.
No way a Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate is getting that many votes...
Looking at the NH, RI, and MA polls, either socialists (at least those sampled here) are massively overstating their willingness to not vote or vote 3rd party, or they're prepared to throw the midterms.
I think it depends on how we define "socialist". A lot of DSA-adjacent types who wouldn't have used the label previously are now willing to use it, but a much smaller percentage are true socialists, ready to seize the means of production and all. Because I'm assuming most socialists in the poll come from the former group, I'm a bit worried.
As a political science professor, it is a pet peeve of mind when people use the term Democratic Socialist when almost all of them a real Social Democrats. Democratic Socialists are basically Communists with elections.
Nowadays, most people who are not identified as a social democrats, tend to believe that people calling themselves something like DSA are in the latter group you described, unfortunately.
That's what the DSA basically is though. They are sometimes careful what they say but they lean pretty heavily toward getting rid of private property at this point.
I think there's a difference between the DSA party platform and all the people now identifying with it, whether they are members or not. None of the DSA members of congress are nearly as radical as the organization's leaders.
JVL (at The Bulwark) did a great job breaking this out - there's a "DSA-A" group (that can work well within liberal structures, and the party as a whole), and a "DSA-B" that is a little...over-enthusiastic, let's say.
There are degrees, not just one thing or the other, and practicality is always worth considering. Note, for example, that Bernie got a lot of money for government-owned free clinics into the Affordable Care Act - an embryonic National Health Service. That's socialist.
Back in FDR's time during WWII, maximum wage was a proposal to cap annual income with a max of $25,000 (much lower in 1942 of course) as a way to curb excessive profits.
Such a proposal, as a concept, is also quite socialist.
Talarico has led every single poll in the last month I think. Beto, to my knowledge, didn't lead in any polls until September, and even then the bulk of polls were either tied or showed a slight Cruz lead. This is looking interesting this year.
Republican dirty campaign tricks have started. They are incorrectly linking Roy Cooper to the release of a prisoner during Covid who went on to murder someone. However, the person was in a South Carolina jail and committed the murder in South Carolina. You can read the story in today's Popular Information by Judd Legum.
In Ohio, John Husted is attacking Sherrod Brown with an ad featuring the story of a naturalized citizen who collided with a truck, killing a young family of three. The wife's brother has asked repeatedly that they pull the ad, which hurts the grieving family who do not want to be used politically for this purpose.
Good morning/afternoon everyone! I am absolutely floored by the incredible generosity of a subscription gift from TDB member Morgan Whitacre. Huge thanks to him and other folks who have stepped up to do this for the community here. Your kindness will always be remembered. As a student, I will absolutely pay this forward when I can!!
Among my personal favorite issues is the Data Center investment and infrastructure buildout, and the resulting policy problems which flow from this expansion and development. Public sentiment is clearly increasingly turning against them, in state after state. We need tailored approaches rather than blanket opposition, but the negative externalities are impossible to ignore. It won't provide the same boost everywhere, but in certain states really zeroing in on this could bring indys to our side. In MI for example, AES has called for a moratorium, which leaves him room to soften his position.
GA-Sen: A former staffer to Republican Rep. Mike Collins posted racist and antisemitic KKK and Nazi images before leaving his staff. Collins is the nominee against Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is Jewish and represents one of the largest Black constituencies in the country.
The details behind the headline are damming. Money meant for Medicaid and healthcare was funneled to a charity founded by Ron DeSantis’s wife, Casey DeSantis.
Senator Ashley Moody is implicated in this scandal as well. Democratic nominee Angie Nixon has called on her to resign.
In the Governor’s race, Dem nominee David Jolly has called for a criminal investigation into the matter and has called on his opponent Byron Donalds to do so as well.
Thanks for bringing this to our attention Wild Lib. I encourage everyone to read the article--it's sleaze incarnate. I do think one critical aspect of this that you didn't mention at all is that AFTER the money went to Casey DeSantis' foundation that it was THEN funneled to Republican party campaign committees! So Republicans used a refund that belonged to the Florida taxpayers for their campaigns! Though it doesn't appear to have enriched any individuals personally, this is about as egregious a rip-off as I've ever seen, and I'm not a young person. I'm incredulous no criminal charges were filed( the reasoning why not as conveyed in the article seems mindblowingly lame to me).
They didn't care when Rick Scott "misappropriated" way more, so now that Florida has gotten even more Florida Man-ish...I don't see much traction here. Hope to be wrong, of course.
The situation is well beyond "out of hand"....within 5 mins of each other I received text messages prophetically declaring that Cooper (NC) and Ossoff (GA) are doomed unless more money is sent right away and Dems have record breaking turnout. I didn't bother to determine who sent the texts I just blocked and trashed. Of course, the sender will just use another #. 11/3/26 cannot come soon enough. Update: add Talarico to that list.
For that matter, these fundraising text messages (assuming this is the case based on what you’ve described) can go ahead and say, “Game Over Man” just like Bill Paxton did in Aliens.
“We’re all doomed” has become the new “We’re 20 points down!”
I probably would regularly donate to Democratic candidates if it weren't for this. I really hate spam and I really hate negativity. It's enough of a turnoff that I stopped donating years ago. I honestly think this is one of the reasons Harris lost. She assembled the largest donor list ever and blasted it with nonstop messages about how doomed her candidacy was.
My hope is that this is not another Adelita Grijalva situation where it took 2+ months for her to finally be sworn-in to replace her late father Rep. Raúl Grijalva in the House after she was elected.
Ok-Gov: Mundson may be a bit too left-leaning, but she's still the best candidate Democrats could have reasonable got for Oklahoma at this point and she's a good fairly talented. She also, at least, has experience winning a swingish suburban district in OKC.
But Mazzei. The dude is absolutely trash tier candidate. He's driftwood. Trump, Stitt, and 8 million in far-right ad money could barely get him a .5% win. Stitt himself is deeply unpopular. Trump's latest moves with beef are hitting Oklahoma ground zero, and the farm crisis is also hurting the state. Mazzei is one of the most awkward, unlikeable, and seemingly empty suit candidates I have seen running anywhere this year, and the Republican primary was extraordinarily expensive and nasty.
On top of that, the general political climate this year strongly favors the Democrats, and state executive races are less partisan and less political. Could all of it add up enough to lead to an upset? Mazzei is still favored to win by 60-40 odds, but it will be much closer than OK should be and I'm going to keep the race high on my upsets list.
Cleveland, Tulsa, and Oklahoma Counties cast about 44% of the vote in 2022 (almost identical to their proportion of the state's population), and Hoffmeister won them, but only 53-46. If rural turnout is depressed more, and urban turnout elevated, they could easily, with population growth and trends and extremely elevated Dem turnout, cast close to half the vote this year. The big thing is that the flood gates have to break, and Mundson needs to exceed 60% in these counties, and also hold down rural Republican margins more than Hoffmeister did. A big reach for her, but will be interesting to watch the campaign.
It's interesting how during the past 3 midterm elections, Republicans have gotten about 55% of the vote in the OK-Gov contests. State-level Republicans seem to be much less popular than federal, and yet somehow it still hasn't been enough to break through.
No public polls of this contest have been released, and all the prognosticators categorize it as Safe R. So it would certainly be an upset if Munson won.
Looking back through recent races, a fair number had independent candidates who did very creditably. That allowed Brad Henry to win in 2002. If there was a similar dynamic this year, I could see the race being genuinely competitive with the right Democrat. But unfortunately it seems like we're in for an underwhelming Republican win. (Thankfully, the flipside of the same dynamic should give us an underwhelming Democratic win in Oregon, so we're not missing out on all the breaks...)
Not sure why Democrats dominate Senate and almost every other statewide race in Oregon but haven't been able to find a popular, telegenic, and generally appealing gubernatorial candidate in decades.
Well we got there. Trump at 27% in Franklin Marshall PA poll https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2092918620619739636?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Shapiro +25 and Democrats +12 on generic ballot too
Solid stuff. I looked back at the 2018 midterm results in PA, and Democrats won the generic ballot by 10.25%, with 3 seats going under 5%. If the PA generic ballot is close to this number when the November elections arrive, then PA Dems will experience 2022 Michigan in the state legislature, with the State House definitely going more blue and the State Senate finally going blue for the first time since 1993.
For Congress, this brings in a solid argument that Mackenzie and Perry are in deep trouble, with Bresnahan close behind and Fitzpatrick definitely sweating more bullet-shaped drops than in 2018.
Hey what happened in that Senate NH poll ?? Sununu ahead ? Anyone from NH here who can provide an update on the Pappas campaign ?
Personally I'm surpisrsed more people haven't been talking about NH. It's an open seat in a state that goes blue federally but is completely GOP-run at the state level. The Sununu name is powerful there still, some folks are probably even confusing John with his brother who was a popular governor. Not saying that he will win but it is going to be close and some money will have to be spent there.
UNH is notorious for producing wild swings in their results, cycle after cycle, without ever really questioning their own methodology. I would say throw it on the pile and move on, but given the source, I'd just throw it in the trash.
I left a comment on yesterday’s post but wanted to weigh in today too. I don’t comment too much on here. But I live in NH and have been following this race closely so I thought I would opine.
I will be voting for Manzur in the Democratic primary and most of my friends will be too. It has less to do with how great she is and more to do with how awful Pappas is.
I think there are two main issues he faces with the Democratic voters.
First is his support from, and support FOR AIPAC. About a month ago, he created a short commercial thing of him endorsing them! Usually it goes the other way. People freaked out and many in the base were horrified by his unwavering endorsement of them and the statements he maid regarding their main advocacy issue.
The second issue deals with political dynasties. Many of us are so amazingly frustrated with Senators Shaheen and Hassan. I can’t even tell you how disappointed I am in them and how much I am ashamed of myself for supporting them in years past. They have completely let us down in the Senate and I am appalled aghast. They enable Trump at every turn and it’s disgusting. This may seem like hyperbole but the base is PISSED! This leads to the issue, specifically with Sen. Shaheen. Her daughter is running for the open HD-1 created by Pappas’ senate run. She is not doing as well in the polls as many would have thought because the democratic base hates her Mom. Pappas, in turn, is Shaheen’s hand chosen political successor. It’s all the old school, monied, painfully moderate Democrats who think that the succession plan engineered by Shaheen is pre-destined in a biblical sense. The rest of us think it’s stupid, undemocratic and of a bygone era. Again, the plan is Pappas taking Shaheen’s Senate seat and Shaheen Jr. taking his now open House seat.
Anyway, I’m pissed at these rich democrats who never had to work in their life and think that they are entitled to these seats.
Regarding Manzur possibly being a poor general election candidate. That’s probably correct. But Pappas is a shockingly bad candidate too. They’ll both have a fight against the Sununu name. So, I figure that I may as well go with the candidate who I agree with.
I mean you’re entirely within your right to vote for the candidate you prefer better, even if they might be “less electable” than the alternative
Regardless of how anyone here and elsewhere feels about electability, it’s very clear that “being electable” is no longer a good enough reason to vote for someone in the eyes of the Democrat base, as evidenced by El-Sayed, Nixon, Hong’s very narrow loss, and how this primary potentially being far more competitive than it had any reason to. At some point you have to stop blaming “progressives” for trying to “sabotage” elections by having the audacity to run for election, and actually start trying to appeal to voters with something besides being “electable,” regardless of whether or not you think it’s stupid.
I am a progressive of course but like, I still think moderate Democrats could still win primaries most of the time, if they would stop campaigning about bullshit like Hasan Piker or endorsing AIPAC (an organization too toxic for *Mike Rogers* to openly associate with now) or whatever Vindman was doing besides burning money and responding to any pushback with “well I’m the electable one.”
Ditto on the stupid Piker nonsense. Even Jon Ossoff, who I have a lot of admiration for, has joined in on condemning him. There's no use.
I think Piker is a dipshit with some dumb views, but good God he is not worth the energy. It’s not an issue that I have time to care about, because I’m more focused on the fact that everything is expensive as fuck and everything is poisonous, and this probably applies to a lot of other voters too. A one time condemnation is fine, whatever, but when the house minority leader is saying he’s “going to continue speaking out against Piker” it just makes me feel like we’re not going to get anything productive done.
I haven't followed Piker closely and don't intend to, but opposing bigotry, extremism and, like, pro-Maoism should never get old and will play well in general elections except with bigots and extremists. I don't want to see a Democratic Party that gets tired of condemning people who stand for terrible things. Leave that shit to the Republicans. It's already horrible and scary that they are fascist bigots!
I have never seen Piker endorse Maoism. He generally talks like an old school NYC marxist, very concerned with capitalist systems and inequities, but then again I also don't care about him and don't follow him closely so maybe I've missed stuff?
Jon Ossoff is Jewish. I suggest not complaining about Jews condemning people for making antisemitic remarks. It's really best for us not to fight about that here, but letting that comment go by without any kind of response didn't sit well with me. Maybe not discussing the correctness of incorrectness of condemning Piker should be added to the Rules of the Road, but that won't make the issue go away, and to be clear, part of the issue is to look at the analogy with the UK, where a majority of Jewish voters voted Conservative because of the prevalence of anti-Jewish bigotry and actions by Labour MPs (wait for the inevitable denial that any of that happened). Jews are a small though larger minority of the U.S. electorate than the British one, but they vote in huge percentages relative to their population, and it would be very bad to alienate them not through good policy but by causing them to stop trusting Democrats to protect them from anti-Jewish violence and hostility, and if any of you don't think those feelings are real, you don't have the same circle I have.
Centrism in a 2-party system in which one party is fascist cannot be defined as somewhere sort of halfway between the parties. That is the basic problem. I don't expect the Democratic Party to turn socialist. What I do insist is that if they do not singlemindedly fight for people's rights every day, they have no chance of staving off dictatorship. All we have to do is see how things have gotten increasingly authoritarian from Bush, Jr. through Trump I and Trump II. If the Democrats get another trifecta in the 2028 elections and it takes over in January, 2029, that's likely to be their last stand. You don't have to be a socialist to understand that, but you can't be a naive idiot like some of the Democratic Leadership seem to be; you must be a clear-seeing fighter, every day. Otherwise, get the fuck out of office and give way to someone who is!
Replied to your post on the other thread, I'll put it here as well:
My point about NH-01 had nothing to do with Shaheen (or Sullivan or the progressive candidates), but about the candidates with no campaigns to speak of with strangely high negative ratings among socialists and progressives.
While Pappas is clearly being handed a seat by the establishment and was their favored candidate in 2018, that doesn't make him lazy or a bad candidate. He's won a swing seat for 4 cycles, running roughly even with Biden, winning by 9 points in 2022 (which wasn't a great year for NH Republicans but not a terrible one either) and then overperforming Harris by 6 points. Whatever you think of him and his policies (he's certainly well to my right), he's a strong candidate. I'd also push back against the notion than Hassan and Shaheen have enabled Trump at every turn, as while they've voted with him too much, they still usually vote against him.
I understand your decision to vote for Manzur. However, when you are making the assertion that we have rich Democrats who have never worked their whole life being the pervasive argument, I’m going to have to respectfully disagree with you here with Chris Pappas.
Influence, incumbency and connections are what make the establishment the way it is. Wealthy donors and the influence the Democratic Party has had as a result of the issue with these donors is what the root of the problem is. Just from what I know about Pappas, he has in fact been elected multiple times before he started serving in the House.
Also, Pappas is a co-owner of his family business, Puritan Backroom, which has been around for decades under ownership of his family going back a couple of generations. This is a restaurant and ice cream shop, not the Hilton family empire or Trump Organization. I did a quick check on Pappas’ net worth but it’s barely over $1 million. Nowhere near what Darrell Issa and Mark Warner have in wealth, where they are multi millionaires.
Pappas is also a talented politician and very likeable guy, as numerous NH contributors have stated over the year, who has long been considered a rising star in the NH party. Calling him awful or saying he has an uphill battle against Sununu is laughable.
I’ve met him dozens of times. He’s definitely polite. I’m not too sure I’d say likeable. The poll out today shows him down to Sununu. That’s just facts. I’m not laughing because I want to win the senate too. I’m just trying to give an honest, on the ground, assessment.
There’s another poll out???
Something is wrong with your link to the podcast. It wants me to Upgrade to Paid even after I have logged-in. It also does not appear on your Podcast page within the Substack site for The Downballot.
Yeah I’m paid and the podcast isn’t showing up in my Overcast app like it normally does
It's up now! https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-senate-flip-fantasy
Yeah unfortunately we had a technical issue today but it's up now! https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-senate-flip-fantasy
OK-Ref - Oklahoma (April 2027) will join Michigan (November 2026) and Illinois (no later than November 2028) in having referendums on the ballot on whether or not to call a state constituional convention.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DchgnBalWpg/?igsi=amZ6NDVhZ3d6M281
I can only imagine what authoritarian abomination Oklahoma would produce if they wrote a new state constitution.
I vacillate on this and look forward to the arguments on both sides. On the one hand, if we (IL) were to write a new constitution, we could eliminate the prohibition against a graduated income tax, which would be great, and give some teeth to the provision that the State should provide the "primary responsibility" for education. On the other hand, the crazies will try to insert something crazy or delete some good protections.
Constituional conventions are the ultimate Pandora's box of politics, since literally everything is at least theoretically on the table.
No way a Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate is getting that many votes...
Looking at the NH, RI, and MA polls, either socialists (at least those sampled here) are massively overstating their willingness to not vote or vote 3rd party, or they're prepared to throw the midterms.
Socialists are massively over represented in the polls. That is it.
Not in Democratic primaries.
You meant the actual electorate? Much less so.
But in the poll respondents this year? definitely over represented.
I dunno...I think they're over-represented in polls in Democratic primaries too, as we saw in both MI-Sen and WI-Gov...
I think it depends on how we define "socialist". A lot of DSA-adjacent types who wouldn't have used the label previously are now willing to use it, but a much smaller percentage are true socialists, ready to seize the means of production and all. Because I'm assuming most socialists in the poll come from the former group, I'm a bit worried.
As a political science professor, it is a pet peeve of mind when people use the term Democratic Socialist when almost all of them a real Social Democrats. Democratic Socialists are basically Communists with elections.
Nowadays, most people who are not identified as a social democrats, tend to believe that people calling themselves something like DSA are in the latter group you described, unfortunately.
Yeah as someone that would identify as a Social Democrat it’s annoying but the DSA label seems to have stuck
That's what the DSA basically is though. They are sometimes careful what they say but they lean pretty heavily toward getting rid of private property at this point.
I think there's a difference between the DSA party platform and all the people now identifying with it, whether they are members or not. None of the DSA members of congress are nearly as radical as the organization's leaders.
Not publicly, yet. But eventually, possibly.
JVL (at The Bulwark) did a great job breaking this out - there's a "DSA-A" group (that can work well within liberal structures, and the party as a whole), and a "DSA-B" that is a little...over-enthusiastic, let's say.
Mayor Mamdani has said he's very skeptical of capitalism. He is happy to work within the system but seems pretty clearly to be a genuine socialist.
There are degrees, not just one thing or the other, and practicality is always worth considering. Note, for example, that Bernie got a lot of money for government-owned free clinics into the Affordable Care Act - an embryonic National Health Service. That's socialist.
Back in FDR's time during WWII, maximum wage was a proposal to cap annual income with a max of $25,000 (much lower in 1942 of course) as a way to curb excessive profits.
Such a proposal, as a concept, is also quite socialist.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-04-08-me-457-story.html
Texas Public Opinion Research poll:
Talarico 48-42
Abbott 49-42
https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election
Talarico has led every single poll in the last month I think. Beto, to my knowledge, didn't lead in any polls until September, and even then the bulk of polls were either tied or showed a slight Cruz lead. This is looking interesting this year.
I think Beto tied exactly one and led exactly one.
Republican dirty campaign tricks have started. They are incorrectly linking Roy Cooper to the release of a prisoner during Covid who went on to murder someone. However, the person was in a South Carolina jail and committed the murder in South Carolina. You can read the story in today's Popular Information by Judd Legum.
In Ohio, John Husted is attacking Sherrod Brown with an ad featuring the story of a naturalized citizen who collided with a truck, killing a young family of three. The wife's brother has asked repeatedly that they pull the ad, which hurts the grieving family who do not want to be used politically for this purpose.
It’s not shocking that Husted ran the ad without permission. Republican politicians aren’t familiar with the concept of consent.
Husted and others running this year for election or re-election are learning quite well from Trump!
Good morning/afternoon everyone! I am absolutely floored by the incredible generosity of a subscription gift from TDB member Morgan Whitacre. Huge thanks to him and other folks who have stepped up to do this for the community here. Your kindness will always be remembered. As a student, I will absolutely pay this forward when I can!!
Among my personal favorite issues is the Data Center investment and infrastructure buildout, and the resulting policy problems which flow from this expansion and development. Public sentiment is clearly increasingly turning against them, in state after state. We need tailored approaches rather than blanket opposition, but the negative externalities are impossible to ignore. It won't provide the same boost everywhere, but in certain states really zeroing in on this could bring indys to our side. In MI for example, AES has called for a moratorium, which leaves him room to soften his position.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/709772/americans-oppose-data-centers-area.aspx
https://www.goerie.com/story/news/state/2026/08/27/pa-voters-ai-data-centers-poll/91461360007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z112319p002550c002550e004100v112319&gca-ft=180&gca-ds=sophi
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/poll-wisconsin-opposition-data-centers-170000868.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/21/poll-data-centers-democrats-moratorium-01001799
Extremely pleased to hear this. A lot of true mensches in this community.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/27/mike-collinss-former-staffer-posted-kkk-nazi-imagery/
GA-Sen: A former staffer to Republican Rep. Mike Collins posted racist and antisemitic KKK and Nazi images before leaving his staff. Collins is the nominee against Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is Jewish and represents one of the largest Black constituencies in the country.
Ossoff couldn’t have gotten a better GOP challenger to run up against.
Agreed. I know that Senate candidates don't usually pull Gubernatorial candidates along with them, but any chance this helps Bottoms at the margins?
Not sure yet. Probably will be just affecting the GA-SEN race for now.
I know Rep. Max Miller’s problems are affecting the OH GOP statewide bit it’s a different dynamic.
Today in least surprising news ever....
Important news out of Florida…
DeSantis Administration Misspent $10 Million, Grand Jury Says (gift link below)
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/us/casey-desantis-charity-hope-garden-medicaid-settlement.html?unlocked_article_code=1.8lA.nBwt.YIKXq48z2fuB&smid=url-share
The details behind the headline are damming. Money meant for Medicaid and healthcare was funneled to a charity founded by Ron DeSantis’s wife, Casey DeSantis.
Senator Ashley Moody is implicated in this scandal as well. Democratic nominee Angie Nixon has called on her to resign.
In the Governor’s race, Dem nominee David Jolly has called for a criminal investigation into the matter and has called on his opponent Byron Donalds to do so as well.
Thanks for bringing this to our attention Wild Lib. I encourage everyone to read the article--it's sleaze incarnate. I do think one critical aspect of this that you didn't mention at all is that AFTER the money went to Casey DeSantis' foundation that it was THEN funneled to Republican party campaign committees! So Republicans used a refund that belonged to the Florida taxpayers for their campaigns! Though it doesn't appear to have enriched any individuals personally, this is about as egregious a rip-off as I've ever seen, and I'm not a young person. I'm incredulous no criminal charges were filed( the reasoning why not as conveyed in the article seems mindblowingly lame to me).
They didn't care when Rick Scott "misappropriated" way more, so now that Florida has gotten even more Florida Man-ish...I don't see much traction here. Hope to be wrong, of course.
The situation is well beyond "out of hand"....within 5 mins of each other I received text messages prophetically declaring that Cooper (NC) and Ossoff (GA) are doomed unless more money is sent right away and Dems have record breaking turnout. I didn't bother to determine who sent the texts I just blocked and trashed. Of course, the sender will just use another #. 11/3/26 cannot come soon enough. Update: add Talarico to that list.
For that matter, these fundraising text messages (assuming this is the case based on what you’ve described) can go ahead and say, “Game Over Man” just like Bill Paxton did in Aliens.
“We’re all doomed” has become the new “We’re 20 points down!”
I probably would regularly donate to Democratic candidates if it weren't for this. I really hate spam and I really hate negativity. It's enough of a turnoff that I stopped donating years ago. I honestly think this is one of the reasons Harris lost. She assembled the largest donor list ever and blasted it with nonstop messages about how doomed her candidacy was.
https://www.11alive.com/video/news/politics/everton-blair-to-be-sworn-into-congress-next-week/85-20cfdae0-2fb8-4157-a5b9-d5b891f354c2
Rep.-elect Everton Blair (D-GA) will be sworn into office early next week, but Rep.-elect Aisha Wahab (D-CA) does not yet have a swearing-in date.
That is strange. And Wahab won the special election last week.
Wahab's seat was also vacant 8 days longer than Blair's (Eric Swalwell resigned on April 14, David Scott died on April 22).
Yes. That’s what puzzles me.
My hope is that this is not another Adelita Grijalva situation where it took 2+ months for her to finally be sworn-in to replace her late father Rep. Raúl Grijalva in the House after she was elected.
The Cook Political Report is changing its rating in the Florida governor's race, moving the contest from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
CPR once again like Sabato is slow as molasses in their ratings changes.
Ok-Gov: Mundson may be a bit too left-leaning, but she's still the best candidate Democrats could have reasonable got for Oklahoma at this point and she's a good fairly talented. She also, at least, has experience winning a swingish suburban district in OKC.
But Mazzei. The dude is absolutely trash tier candidate. He's driftwood. Trump, Stitt, and 8 million in far-right ad money could barely get him a .5% win. Stitt himself is deeply unpopular. Trump's latest moves with beef are hitting Oklahoma ground zero, and the farm crisis is also hurting the state. Mazzei is one of the most awkward, unlikeable, and seemingly empty suit candidates I have seen running anywhere this year, and the Republican primary was extraordinarily expensive and nasty.
On top of that, the general political climate this year strongly favors the Democrats, and state executive races are less partisan and less political. Could all of it add up enough to lead to an upset? Mazzei is still favored to win by 60-40 odds, but it will be much closer than OK should be and I'm going to keep the race high on my upsets list.
Cleveland, Tulsa, and Oklahoma Counties cast about 44% of the vote in 2022 (almost identical to their proportion of the state's population), and Hoffmeister won them, but only 53-46. If rural turnout is depressed more, and urban turnout elevated, they could easily, with population growth and trends and extremely elevated Dem turnout, cast close to half the vote this year. The big thing is that the flood gates have to break, and Mundson needs to exceed 60% in these counties, and also hold down rural Republican margins more than Hoffmeister did. A big reach for her, but will be interesting to watch the campaign.
It's interesting how during the past 3 midterm elections, Republicans have gotten about 55% of the vote in the OK-Gov contests. State-level Republicans seem to be much less popular than federal, and yet somehow it still hasn't been enough to break through.
No public polls of this contest have been released, and all the prognosticators categorize it as Safe R. So it would certainly be an upset if Munson won.
Looking back through recent races, a fair number had independent candidates who did very creditably. That allowed Brad Henry to win in 2002. If there was a similar dynamic this year, I could see the race being genuinely competitive with the right Democrat. But unfortunately it seems like we're in for an underwhelming Republican win. (Thankfully, the flipside of the same dynamic should give us an underwhelming Democratic win in Oregon, so we're not missing out on all the breaks...)
Not sure why Democrats dominate Senate and almost every other statewide race in Oregon but haven't been able to find a popular, telegenic, and generally appealing gubernatorial candidate in decades.