Yes! In 2026, Democrats need to run the strongest possible candidates in every race, especially for the Senate and House. We have just one shot at stomping on the brakes to lessen the damage Trump and his Project 2025 are doing to America – and this is it.
I also think not only will a slimmer GOP Senate majority will have a harder time passing harmful bills, but having Cooper in the Senate is useful if Budd loses in 2028 and we get a federal Democratic trifecta.
If N.C. is represented by two Democratic Senators by January 2029, it means that we can potentially see Anita Earls and/or Allison Riggs elevated to federal judicial positions. Maybe even SCOTUS if the court gets expanded?
Why would we want them to vacate their seats on the NC courts? We desperately need to get a majority there. Keeping Earls (if she wins next year) and Riggs in their current seats is worth more than them being as judges on the 4th circuit.
If we have the presidency and the senate we can appoint any dem to federal judicial vacancies. It would be prudent to do so in a way that doesn't cost us power elsewhere.
Also Earls will be 69 in 2029. By that point she shouldn't be getting any lifetime federal appointments. We need appointees to hold those spots down long enough that they do not have serious risk of creating a vacancy for republicans to fill.
Thanks to the lame duck GOP supermajority last year, any appointments by the governor for state judicial seats has to be filled by someone as the same political affiliation as the outgoing justice.
Meaning that if a federal trifecta happens in 2029 and N.C. has two Democratic Senators, the political makeup of the state courts (like a potential Dem controlled supreme court) won’t change if Earls or Riggs get a lifetime federal appointment.
I'd think we would want Riggs to stay around and benefit from incumbency to hopefully retain her seat through the 2030s. She's young enough that she could stay on the NCSC for decades. Earls faces the other side of the same problem: she is still a poor choice for such an appointment due to her age.
I'm not sure why you're highlighting the two dem senators part? That would only matter for the district courts with blue slip rules, but I expect most people would consider state supreme court to be more prestigious than federal district courts.
And we can still appoint anyone else under this scenario. It's not a Riggs/Earls or nobody situation. There are a lot of lawyers and legal scholars out there...
Simplifying everything down: I do not understand the interest in appointing them elsewhere. What's the benefit over the alternatives? Would you mind expanding on that?
As a man, I want to see more female representation on the federal courts. Biden did a lot to correct that from 2021-2024 with filling as many judicial positions as possible but there are still too many Trump appointees like the three current SCOTUS judges and in the lower courts who are Riggs’ age or younger (like that Mizelle twit in FL).
And I would like to see federal judges like Dale Ho get elevated to SCOTUS in the future. But after the mess Riggs went through, it would be awesome if the guy who originally appointed her to the N.C. Court of Appeals and N.C. Supreme Court helped put in a good word for an eventual promotion to federal court.
The fact that a veto-proof Democratic supermajority has a statistically significant chance of happening in Virginia gives you a general idea of how much trouble the GOP is.
What would be the hypothetical 67th Democratic state delegate district in VA?
I’m not sure offhand, but we would have to win the seats containing Danville and Harrisonburg. Probably also Bobby Orrock’s seat in Spotsylvania and Caroline Counties. Probably also the GOP-leaning seat in north Virginia Beach.
I suppose being the running mate is possible but that's such a 🤷🏻 series of events to make her the pick. This it's much more likely she's wants to succeed Warner or Kaine when they finally retire, from which she may make some weird calculation about RTW. Unless her main goal is to lead like DOD/ODNI/NSC, then she'll do whatever lol.
Not sure of exact names, but there are a lot of mostly suburban Democrats who are probably more receptive to the requests of the business community than to labour unions, though they're not reflexively hostile to labour like most Republicans and the conservaDems who once dominated the state.
In her run for Governor, she has taken the pro-RTW position. However, I think she might consider changing her view on this while she’s Governor. It would be bad optics, though, if she flip flopped on this issue immediately after taking office.
It may be better for her to wait until after the 2027 state legislative elections to sign legislation repealing RTW, especially if Democrats expand their majority in the state Senate in 2027.
Didn't she explicitly say she wouldn't support a repeal but would accept changes?
And waiting until 2027 is risky. If we have the majority to do so now with this window, we should do it. There's no guarantee of expanding the majority or even maintaining it.
I’m not sure if she’s said anything about reforming the RTW law. I’d have to look that up.
I don’t think it’s very risky to wait until after the 2027 elections. The most vulnerable Senate Democrat is Russet Perry, and I doubt she’ll lose reelection when Trump is in the White House.
If we end up with a 58-seat majority in the state House this year, like Chaz Nuttycombe is predicting, then we’ll probably also have a comfortable majority after the 2027 elections.
A lot of Dems including Spanberger were pretty upset about Virginia losing its status as the #1 state for business under Youngkin. The deference to the business community is still very strong in Virginia and I have a hard time seeing a concerted push to repeal RTW succeeding. Unions have never really been a big part of the VA Dem coalition and are pretty weak in the state so the pressure to do it isn't that great either.
Between now and November of 2026, every Democratically-controlled state and city needs to be made into a convincing exhibition window of Democratic policies and achievement!
Definitely, but that is WAY easier said than done, especially at the local level. City level politicians are so provincial and focused on their neighbor and reelections that they don't care about the effects outside their districts and the ones in major cities tend to be hyper-ideological.
We should, but I'm not sure we can do the most important things in time for 2026. I do think we can in time for 2028.
My observation is that the #1 failing of blue states in the opinion of the average voter is cost of living. Which is really cost of housing. There's other issues that we can improve on but until/unless we solve that a lot of people are going to see our ideology as insufficient. Fairly or not.
There's been work on that lately, but anything new we do won't be able to get enough new housing up and running in time for voters to feel it by election day next year.
Attended a rally/kick off for SC108 State House district candidate Cathy Redwine last night. SC7 US House candidate John Vincent also spoke. Redwine is facing 5-term incumbent Lee Hewitt who has never faced opposition in the primary or general election. Vincent faces Russell Fry who is a OAN darling and ousted Tom Rice for voting to impeach Trump.
Redwine is a therapist who works with teenagers. Sorely needed here. Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death for kids 10-14. 14,000 cases of sexual abuse against minors in SC last year but state has cut funding to centers that support youth recovery and also cut support for domestic violence shelter, while also enacting a 6 week abortion ban. Lee Hewitt voted for cuts. She's running a pro-family and pro-women campaign so far. With discussion also about investing in the future via education, health care, anti-poverty.
Vincent provided a platform of Common Sense Over Chaos. $15 min wage, revert all funding cuts to ACA, Snap, Medicaid and taxes on top 5% to 2017 levels and increase taxes in "Musk and Amazon."
We've been in a massive heat wave. Locale was an indoor/outdoor bar so it was hot! Like 108F heat index. So not many questions, but 50 people showed up.
Two questions — does he have a realistic chance of being a threat? And which Republicans might be interested in his open seat now that he’s gunning for Senate?
Democratic Wisconsin Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who was appointed to the position by Gov. Tony Evers, said she is not planning to run for governor or a full term in her current role, but instead is considering a run for lieutenant governor in 2026, reports @apnews.com.
That would confuse me more, because running for Lieutenant Governor and then Senator would cause more disruption in government than running for re-election as Secretary of State and then Senator, no?
Does Wisconsin's LG do anything day to day? Most LG positions are largely powerless and only take on whatever responsibility the governor is willing to hand over.
If that's the case in Wisconsin too, then an LG leaving their post for another office would have little impact on government. The only real disruption would be going through the process to fill the vacancy.
In Wisconsin specifically, the Lieutenant Governor does more than the Secretary of State (though they are at the lower end of power/ability compared to other states). It’s the GOP gutting the Secretary of State’s office in WI that makes the argument confusing. She may well run for Lt Governor, but it won’t be because she wants to avoid disruption in government. If that were the case, the best place for her to run is for re-election.
Yes, the LG of Wisconsin is not a major office - not even President of the Wisconsin Senate - nor are they elected separately from the Governor. It would have little to no impact.
The SecState is just next in line until a new LG is appointed. So the key is to win the SecState race (even if it doesn't do much until we can flip the state leg) for that brief interim period.
I sincerely hope that's not the reason, though I suspect you're right. It would be kind of distasteful to run for a higher office only to immediately run for an even higher one.
Barnes proved it had value by nearly winning a Senate seat from it. If Rodriguez wins Gov from LG - which I don't think has ever happened in WI history- it would just add to the value as a launch pad.
Even though SoS has little power most voters probably view the position as doing more than the Lt Gov. Plus you have more electoral cred since you have to win the seat in your own right instead of sharing the ballot as LG.
Zach Conine the State Treasurer is running for Democrats. Almost certainly is the front runner for the nomination. Though I’m a little nervous he has only won 47.7% of the vote in both of his races. That said, when 3% of voters always vote “none of these candidates” in every cycle it’s hard to reach a majority. Joe Lombardo the GOP Governor only won 48.8% of the vote in his flip of the seat in 2022.
working on a compilation of races thru the end of this year. TX-18 special general elex is set for 11/4/2025 but there is no primary? do I have that right? so if 15 candidates all compete in a free for all, we'll get a member of Congress who won with 7 percent of the vote? or if no one gets 50 percent, does Abbott schedule a runoff (as far down the road as he can kick it)?
I would love to see that list! In fact, the other day, I was wondering whether the DownBallot had compiled a list up upcoming special elections and regular elections.
alas, I just went to Ballotpedia. Candidate filing is 9/3/2025 so some of these may not materialize. The answer to my question seems to be; if no one gets 50 percent of the vote, which they won't, Abbott will schedule that runoff as far down the road as he possibly can.
FWIW I've flagged as likely frontrunner types: Amanda Edwards, Jolanda Jones, and Christian Menefee, and separately flagged Zoe Cadore because she's a fossil fuel lobbyist (my org is climate focused), but I haven't yet looked at 2Q numbers.
An exotic dancer has revealed that she conducted a 17-year affair with state Representative Giovanni Capriglione and that he paid for several abortions. Caprigilione sponsored the bill that made abortions illegal in Texas. He has since announced that he will not run for reelection. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/25/giovanni-capriglione-affair-texas-house-republican/
Trump won by well over 20 points here too. The early frontrunner is Armin Mizani, who ran in TX-26 last year and briefly flirted with special state senate election.
It’s kind of surprising so far in the cycle how Republicans are mostly successfully adopting the Democratic strategy of clearing the field for their nominees in competitive races and Democrats are the ones with a ton of primaries instead. I’m not sure how that inversion of strategies for each party will play out in 2026 races, but I thought it was an interesting dynamic to note.
More than anything, I think this reflects the fact that the MAGA-Republican Party is wholly owned by Donald Trump. Thank you for your complete and total attention in this matter!
I’ve observed that the party in the White House tends to have far fewer messy primaries. I think that’s a function of A) having party leadership with the power to express a clear preference and B) the out of power party having more enthusiasm and more people who want to run.
That's not surprising at all. Republicans have a cult leader to clear primary fields on their side, whereas, with only a few high-profile exceptions (Roy Cooper in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race is likely going to be the most notable one), there isn't anyone on the Democratic side who has enough command of the party to clear primary fields, especially with our party being in an identity crisis nationally and having very unpopular legislative leaders at the federal level.
I don’t think it’s surprising because of Trump (I think everyone knew he’d throw his political weight around in primaries which is even more influential now than his first term). I think it’s surprising because both parties have switched what they usually try to do. That wasn’t what I expected, since I thought both parties would run the field clearing strategy (like they both mostly did in 2024 races).
For only 1 example, open seat MI-Sen 2024, party uses weight to clear the field for Slotkin. Open seat MI-Sen 2026 Stevens doesn’t get field cleared for her. You can argue the party doesn’t have that power anymore, which is fair enough, maybe the party’s forced to have these wide open primaries, but they’re not even trying to do so (they’d fail of course, you’d think they’d at least try to get the most electable candidate in their mind through to nomination).
They’ve completely given up on a strategy that has paid off more times then not (although I guess you could argue whether each win was actually because of the party essentially nominating people in each seat, but I think it’s pretty obvious that not spending time and money on a primary at the very least is beneficial to any Democratic swing district/state candidate). That’s why I found it worth noting anyways.
If Elon is serious about supporting the “reduce the Federal deficit” wing, and Chip Roy had even half a huevo, Chipper would run with Elon’s cash in the GOP primary for the Senate seat. I can’t imagine that Ken Paxton will be horrifically with his (at least) 3rd case of infidelity. John Cornyn should jump for the chance to run NASA……but maybe he really wants Pam Bondi’s job?
I also notice that N.C. Democratic Party is pushing Cooper and incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls as a dual ticket for next year. That’s even better.
I can’t emphasize just how much of a damn idiot GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Kyle Langford is.
First, he stands in front of an Auschwitz memorial as a backdrop for how he’s going to reduce unemployment. That is anti-semitism and pro-Nazi rhetoric being covered up even if Langford doesn’t want to admit he’s doing it.
Second, it appears Langford believes Jews should convert to being Catholic, worship Jesus Christ (who Langford seems to forget is Jewish) and abandon the state of Israel.
Maybe we should send Arnold Schwarzenegger to straight this dude out. He’s not even trying to help the GOP at all overcome the problems it has in winning in CA.
I get what you are saying but my intention is not bringing up I-P talk here (nevertheless, I plan on being more cautious about using Israel as a topic, even if it’s not directly related to this discussion). That is not what this candidate I believe is referring to. He may be a radical, Christian Nationalist type. I re-edited my original post to include mention of Ah-Nold as he is from Austria, similar as this GOP Candidate.
As a precaution; I stay away from the I-P chatter especially as a Reform Jewish individual. I already have enough discussion with my fellow tribe on this matter and would rather keep this out of TDB discussion.
It's just a Some Dude, making SomeDude-ish comments for the attention (and succeeding in getting MSM attention in this case).
It's pretty easy to get on the ballot in California. It just takes your checkbook (for the filing fee), and on the form you just check off which political party you want to be listed under, and voilà.
Roy Cooper officially announced his Senate bid at 8 am this morning. So happy.
https://www.wral.com/story/democrat-roy-cooper-announces-bid-for-north-carolina-s-open-u-s-senate-seat/22099913/
Yes! In 2026, Democrats need to run the strongest possible candidates in every race, especially for the Senate and House. We have just one shot at stomping on the brakes to lessen the damage Trump and his Project 2025 are doing to America – and this is it.
I also think not only will a slimmer GOP Senate majority will have a harder time passing harmful bills, but having Cooper in the Senate is useful if Budd loses in 2028 and we get a federal Democratic trifecta.
If N.C. is represented by two Democratic Senators by January 2029, it means that we can potentially see Anita Earls and/or Allison Riggs elevated to federal judicial positions. Maybe even SCOTUS if the court gets expanded?
Why would we want them to vacate their seats on the NC courts? We desperately need to get a majority there. Keeping Earls (if she wins next year) and Riggs in their current seats is worth more than them being as judges on the 4th circuit.
If we have the presidency and the senate we can appoint any dem to federal judicial vacancies. It would be prudent to do so in a way that doesn't cost us power elsewhere.
Also Earls will be 69 in 2029. By that point she shouldn't be getting any lifetime federal appointments. We need appointees to hold those spots down long enough that they do not have serious risk of creating a vacancy for republicans to fill.
Thanks to the lame duck GOP supermajority last year, any appointments by the governor for state judicial seats has to be filled by someone as the same political affiliation as the outgoing justice.
Meaning that if a federal trifecta happens in 2029 and N.C. has two Democratic Senators, the political makeup of the state courts (like a potential Dem controlled supreme court) won’t change if Earls or Riggs get a lifetime federal appointment.
I'd think we would want Riggs to stay around and benefit from incumbency to hopefully retain her seat through the 2030s. She's young enough that she could stay on the NCSC for decades. Earls faces the other side of the same problem: she is still a poor choice for such an appointment due to her age.
I'm not sure why you're highlighting the two dem senators part? That would only matter for the district courts with blue slip rules, but I expect most people would consider state supreme court to be more prestigious than federal district courts.
And we can still appoint anyone else under this scenario. It's not a Riggs/Earls or nobody situation. There are a lot of lawyers and legal scholars out there...
Simplifying everything down: I do not understand the interest in appointing them elsewhere. What's the benefit over the alternatives? Would you mind expanding on that?
As a man, I want to see more female representation on the federal courts. Biden did a lot to correct that from 2021-2024 with filling as many judicial positions as possible but there are still too many Trump appointees like the three current SCOTUS judges and in the lower courts who are Riggs’ age or younger (like that Mizelle twit in FL).
And I would like to see federal judges like Dale Ho get elevated to SCOTUS in the future. But after the mess Riggs went through, it would be awesome if the guy who originally appointed her to the N.C. Court of Appeals and N.C. Supreme Court helped put in a good word for an eventual promotion to federal court.
LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
This could not be more appropriate now! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G78EVouR-yI
Just donated $5.00 to his campaign. I encourage others to donate, if able.
Chaz Nuttycombe’s VA prediction out. Rs are about to be submerged https://x.com/samshirazim/status/1949810014786383916?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Miyares should be out along with MAGA Sweater Vest.
Good.
I thought Chaz was "retiring"? Quotes because he's like 20 lol.
I’d like Chaz to cover N.C. voting like he’s done so well in Virginia. Would be useful to have.
Nah, he just created a new site that includes news and data about legislative sessions now
Below is a link directly to Nuttycombe’s own Tweet, which is easier to read. But first the key metrics:
House of Delegates
– 🔷Democrats net 7 seats
– 🔷58 - 42 Democratic Majority
In the race for statewide elections:
– GOV | 🔷D +11.4
– LG | 🔷D +8.0
– AG | 🔷D +8.4
https://nitter.poast.org/ChazNuttycombe/status/1949809593334346201#m
Chaz Nuttycompe’s odds/predictions:
– 🔷15% chance of a Democratic *SUPERMAJORITY*
– 🔹77% chance of a regular Democratic majority
– 🟨2% chance of a tie
– 🔺6% chance of a Republican majority
Statewide elections:
– GOV | 96% chance Democratic victory
– LG | 89% chance Democratic victory
– AG | 90% chance Democratic victory
The fact that a veto-proof Democratic supermajority has a statistically significant chance of happening in Virginia gives you a general idea of how much trouble the GOP is.
What would be the hypothetical 67th Democratic state delegate district in VA?
I’m not sure offhand, but we would have to win the seats containing Danville and Harrisonburg. Probably also Bobby Orrock’s seat in Spotsylvania and Caroline Counties. Probably also the GOP-leaning seat in north Virginia Beach.
Imagine what Spanberger could do with 58 seats
We have to hope she doesn't veto things like repealing right to work...
She won't. Especially since #1. she has the Vice Presidency on her mind and #2. she can't run again in 2029.
I suppose being the running mate is possible but that's such a 🤷🏻 series of events to make her the pick. This it's much more likely she's wants to succeed Warner or Kaine when they finally retire, from which she may make some weird calculation about RTW. Unless her main goal is to lead like DOD/ODNI/NSC, then she'll do whatever lol.
I don't know if even 58 House Dems is enough for RTW repeal. And the Senate is only 21D-19R IIRC.
Whom would you say the holdouts would be? There are hardly any rural Democrats anymore. Even Creigh Deeds' district is mostly Charlottesville based.
Not sure of exact names, but there are a lot of mostly suburban Democrats who are probably more receptive to the requests of the business community than to labour unions, though they're not reflexively hostile to labour like most Republicans and the conservaDems who once dominated the state.
In her run for Governor, she has taken the pro-RTW position. However, I think she might consider changing her view on this while she’s Governor. It would be bad optics, though, if she flip flopped on this issue immediately after taking office.
It may be better for her to wait until after the 2027 state legislative elections to sign legislation repealing RTW, especially if Democrats expand their majority in the state Senate in 2027.
Didn't she explicitly say she wouldn't support a repeal but would accept changes?
And waiting until 2027 is risky. If we have the majority to do so now with this window, we should do it. There's no guarantee of expanding the majority or even maintaining it.
I’m not sure if she’s said anything about reforming the RTW law. I’d have to look that up.
I don’t think it’s very risky to wait until after the 2027 elections. The most vulnerable Senate Democrat is Russet Perry, and I doubt she’ll lose reelection when Trump is in the White House.
If we end up with a 58-seat majority in the state House this year, like Chaz Nuttycombe is predicting, then we’ll probably also have a comfortable majority after the 2027 elections.
A lot of Dems including Spanberger were pretty upset about Virginia losing its status as the #1 state for business under Youngkin. The deference to the business community is still very strong in Virginia and I have a hard time seeing a concerted push to repeal RTW succeeding. Unions have never really been a big part of the VA Dem coalition and are pretty weak in the state so the pressure to do it isn't that great either.
For anyone who can't access the link and was curious. "In 2023, Chaz got all 140 seats in Virginia right"
I too have trouble with X/Xitter links. The Nitter link I posted is a workaround to access Tweets – without having to visit Musk’s Xitter.
THE WINNING STRATEGY
Between now and November of 2026, every Democratically-controlled state and city needs to be made into a convincing exhibition window of Democratic policies and achievement!
Definitely, but that is WAY easier said than done, especially at the local level. City level politicians are so provincial and focused on their neighbor and reelections that they don't care about the effects outside their districts and the ones in major cities tend to be hyper-ideological.
We should, but I'm not sure we can do the most important things in time for 2026. I do think we can in time for 2028.
My observation is that the #1 failing of blue states in the opinion of the average voter is cost of living. Which is really cost of housing. There's other issues that we can improve on but until/unless we solve that a lot of people are going to see our ideology as insufficient. Fairly or not.
There's been work on that lately, but anything new we do won't be able to get enough new housing up and running in time for voters to feel it by election day next year.
Attended a rally/kick off for SC108 State House district candidate Cathy Redwine last night. SC7 US House candidate John Vincent also spoke. Redwine is facing 5-term incumbent Lee Hewitt who has never faced opposition in the primary or general election. Vincent faces Russell Fry who is a OAN darling and ousted Tom Rice for voting to impeach Trump.
Redwine is a therapist who works with teenagers. Sorely needed here. Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death for kids 10-14. 14,000 cases of sexual abuse against minors in SC last year but state has cut funding to centers that support youth recovery and also cut support for domestic violence shelter, while also enacting a 6 week abortion ban. Lee Hewitt voted for cuts. She's running a pro-family and pro-women campaign so far. With discussion also about investing in the future via education, health care, anti-poverty.
Vincent provided a platform of Common Sense Over Chaos. $15 min wage, revert all funding cuts to ACA, Snap, Medicaid and taxes on top 5% to 2017 levels and increase taxes in "Musk and Amazon."
We've been in a massive heat wave. Locale was an indoor/outdoor bar so it was hot! Like 108F heat index. So not many questions, but 50 people showed up.
Redwine4house.com
Vincent4congress.org
I'm just a voter who also happens to lurk/comment here. Not affiliated with either candidate.
The only Black member of TX Repubs being singled out as the "least well liked" is... not unexpected.
GA-Sen:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/28/mike-collins-launches-georgia-senate-bid-00479642
Rep. Mike Collins is in.
Two questions — does he have a realistic chance of being a threat? And which Republicans might be interested in his open seat now that he’s gunning for Senate?
He’s probably marginally more appealing statewide than Carter, but not by much.
Already stumbling out of the gates by misspelling “Georiga” 🤣 https://bsky.app/profile/bluegeorgia.bsky.social/post/3lv2hcqwfdm2l
The time to ridicule him mercilessly for that is Now. I hope the Ossoff Campaign is preparing the ads.
It’s likely a campaign operative’s fault but the damage has already been done.
Ossoff remains having upper hand over Collins should he be the GOP Senate Nominee.
I think Trump is backing him, so he’s definitely a threat for the nomination.
Good. We can always use all the help we can get in getting Ossoff re-elected.
So Norman wanted to declare “Marshall” law? Would he have been the Marshall?
To state the obvious albeit irrelevant and perhaps irreverent: Norman don’t look like no Marshall Mathers.
Marshall Marshall Marshall!
Shall we call him Evan Plumb then?
It means he’s a hardcore Tekken fan.
Democratic Wisconsin Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who was appointed to the position by Gov. Tony Evers, said she is not planning to run for governor or a full term in her current role, but instead is considering a run for lieutenant governor in 2026, reports @apnews.com.
I wonder why she’s not running for re-election. Maybe more power as LT Gov over mostly symbolic SoS thanks to GOP legislature?
She has her eye on the Senate in 2028 so this might be a deal where she can run for that in 2028 without too much disruption to government.
That would confuse me more, because running for Lieutenant Governor and then Senator would cause more disruption in government than running for re-election as Secretary of State and then Senator, no?
Does Wisconsin's LG do anything day to day? Most LG positions are largely powerless and only take on whatever responsibility the governor is willing to hand over.
If that's the case in Wisconsin too, then an LG leaving their post for another office would have little impact on government. The only real disruption would be going through the process to fill the vacancy.
In Wisconsin specifically, the Lieutenant Governor does more than the Secretary of State (though they are at the lower end of power/ability compared to other states). It’s the GOP gutting the Secretary of State’s office in WI that makes the argument confusing. She may well run for Lt Governor, but it won’t be because she wants to avoid disruption in government. If that were the case, the best place for her to run is for re-election.
Yes, the LG of Wisconsin is not a major office - not even President of the Wisconsin Senate - nor are they elected separately from the Governor. It would have little to no impact.
The SecState is just next in line until a new LG is appointed. So the key is to win the SecState race (even if it doesn't do much until we can flip the state leg) for that brief interim period.
I sincerely hope that's not the reason, though I suspect you're right. It would be kind of distasteful to run for a higher office only to immediately run for an even higher one.
Barnes proved it had value by nearly winning a Senate seat from it. If Rodriguez wins Gov from LG - which I don't think has ever happened in WI history- it would just add to the value as a launch pad.
Even though SoS has little power most voters probably view the position as doing more than the Lt Gov. Plus you have more electoral cred since you have to win the seat in your own right instead of sharing the ballot as LG.
NV-Gov:
https://news3lv.com/news/local/nevada-attorney-general-aaron-ford-formally-launches-campaign-governor-gubernatorial-democratic-party-politics-joe-lombardo-republican-las-vegas-reno-carson-city
Attorney General Aaron Ford is officially in.
Now that he’s in, who might be able to hold the now-open AG seat?
Zach Conine the State Treasurer is running for Democrats. Almost certainly is the front runner for the nomination. Though I’m a little nervous he has only won 47.7% of the vote in both of his races. That said, when 3% of voters always vote “none of these candidates” in every cycle it’s hard to reach a majority. Joe Lombardo the GOP Governor only won 48.8% of the vote in his flip of the seat in 2022.
I didn't realize he wasn't already in!
working on a compilation of races thru the end of this year. TX-18 special general elex is set for 11/4/2025 but there is no primary? do I have that right? so if 15 candidates all compete in a free for all, we'll get a member of Congress who won with 7 percent of the vote? or if no one gets 50 percent, does Abbott schedule a runoff (as far down the road as he can kick it)?
I would love to see that list! In fact, the other day, I was wondering whether the DownBallot had compiled a list up upcoming special elections and regular elections.
Please post the list or a link when you’re ready.
alas, I just went to Ballotpedia. Candidate filing is 9/3/2025 so some of these may not materialize. The answer to my question seems to be; if no one gets 50 percent of the vote, which they won't, Abbott will schedule that runoff as far down the road as he possibly can.
FWIW I've flagged as likely frontrunner types: Amanda Edwards, Jolanda Jones, and Christian Menefee, and separately flagged Zoe Cadore because she's a fossil fuel lobbyist (my org is climate focused), but I haven't yet looked at 2Q numbers.
https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_18th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2025
Menefee seems most likely to me. Crucially, he has establishment and progressive support simultaneously.
An exotic dancer has revealed that she conducted a 17-year affair with state Representative Giovanni Capriglione and that he paid for several abortions. Caprigilione sponsored the bill that made abortions illegal in Texas. He has since announced that he will not run for reelection. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/25/giovanni-capriglione-affair-texas-house-republican/
Is his district a competitive one at all?
Probably not. Capriglione won reelection by 31.8 points in 2024 and by 32 points in 2022.
Trump won by well over 20 points here too. The early frontrunner is Armin Mizani, who ran in TX-26 last year and briefly flirted with special state senate election.
That’s the number I was looking for, thanks
It’s kind of surprising so far in the cycle how Republicans are mostly successfully adopting the Democratic strategy of clearing the field for their nominees in competitive races and Democrats are the ones with a ton of primaries instead. I’m not sure how that inversion of strategies for each party will play out in 2026 races, but I thought it was an interesting dynamic to note.
More than anything, I think this reflects the fact that the MAGA-Republican Party is wholly owned by Donald Trump. Thank you for your complete and total attention in this matter!
/s
In 24' it was NRSC and Steve Daines who selected the candidates and Trump went along, i guess he realized how his candidates did in 2022.
Hopefully a sign of 1. Enthusiasm and motivation, 2. Party leaders not putting their thumbs on the scale and letting voters pick
This started already in 24' with Tim Sheehy & Dave McCormick (Sam Brown, Mike Rogers and Kari Lake also had an easy path to their nomination)
I’ve observed that the party in the White House tends to have far fewer messy primaries. I think that’s a function of A) having party leadership with the power to express a clear preference and B) the out of power party having more enthusiasm and more people who want to run.
That's not surprising at all. Republicans have a cult leader to clear primary fields on their side, whereas, with only a few high-profile exceptions (Roy Cooper in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race is likely going to be the most notable one), there isn't anyone on the Democratic side who has enough command of the party to clear primary fields, especially with our party being in an identity crisis nationally and having very unpopular legislative leaders at the federal level.
Neither Biden or Obama did much primary field clearing activity, did they?
I don’t think it’s surprising because of Trump (I think everyone knew he’d throw his political weight around in primaries which is even more influential now than his first term). I think it’s surprising because both parties have switched what they usually try to do. That wasn’t what I expected, since I thought both parties would run the field clearing strategy (like they both mostly did in 2024 races).
For only 1 example, open seat MI-Sen 2024, party uses weight to clear the field for Slotkin. Open seat MI-Sen 2026 Stevens doesn’t get field cleared for her. You can argue the party doesn’t have that power anymore, which is fair enough, maybe the party’s forced to have these wide open primaries, but they’re not even trying to do so (they’d fail of course, you’d think they’d at least try to get the most electable candidate in their mind through to nomination).
They’ve completely given up on a strategy that has paid off more times then not (although I guess you could argue whether each win was actually because of the party essentially nominating people in each seat, but I think it’s pretty obvious that not spending time and money on a primary at the very least is beneficial to any Democratic swing district/state candidate). That’s why I found it worth noting anyways.
If Elon is serious about supporting the “reduce the Federal deficit” wing, and Chip Roy had even half a huevo, Chipper would run with Elon’s cash in the GOP primary for the Senate seat. I can’t imagine that Ken Paxton will be horrifically with his (at least) 3rd case of infidelity. John Cornyn should jump for the chance to run NASA……but maybe he really wants Pam Bondi’s job?
I also notice that N.C. Democratic Party is pushing Cooper and incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls as a dual ticket for next year. That’s even better.
SC-Sen (apologies for using a paywalled link):
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/us/politics/paul-dans-project-2025-lindsey-graham.html
Paul Dans, who wrote Project 2025, is challenging Lindsey Graham from the right.
EDIT: AP link:
https://apnews.com/article/dans-project-2025-graham-south-carolina-senate-781a780ee4cd701d0b1d52d19e7a2892
Their candidate will almost certainly be the one Trump endorses. ie, the one who sucks up to him the most.
Trump has already endorsed Graham, so that’s ballgame.
Graham will likely survive the primary. He hasn’t done anything to piss off Trump, except during the 2016 GOP Primaries.
I mean, Graham went all-in for Herschel Walker in his GA-SEN candidacy after Trump endorsed Walker early on. Ge did this to the point of worship.
I can’t believe this shlub got this much space in the NY Times . With Bauer already in the race, all he’ll do is help ensure a Graham win.
SC has runoffs.
CA-GOV:
I can’t emphasize just how much of a damn idiot GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Kyle Langford is.
First, he stands in front of an Auschwitz memorial as a backdrop for how he’s going to reduce unemployment. That is anti-semitism and pro-Nazi rhetoric being covered up even if Langford doesn’t want to admit he’s doing it.
Second, it appears Langford believes Jews should convert to being Catholic, worship Jesus Christ (who Langford seems to forget is Jewish) and abandon the state of Israel.
Maybe we should send Arnold Schwarzenegger to straight this dude out. He’s not even trying to help the GOP at all overcome the problems it has in winning in CA.
https://ktla.com/news/california/california-gubernatorial-candidate-blasted-for-auschwitz-post/?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwL06VtleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHtIlilJ4o6Lvr-y8n0TrVN3lhnVegOHLIVW-U_12IpCZvqkD0wG46DJ-hQsV_aem_9XC1fsST-LGCsQMFY-Z_Kw
Just to point out: someone like him could survive in Israel. But nevertheless...
FYI, my intention was not bringing up I-P discussion but I removed mention of Israel and put in Arnold Schwarzenegger instead.
I don’t want to see this discussion go beyond what the purpose of TDB is.
How? Just a short answer pls.
There are Christian Arabs in Israel who vehemently oppose the existence of Israel as a Jewish state, and they have the right to hold that opinion.
I’d avoid direct I-P talk here, for the record, as a precaution. It’s against the rules.
That said, this guy’s clearly a delusional Nazi with zero chance of winning this race.
I get what you are saying but my intention is not bringing up I-P talk here (nevertheless, I plan on being more cautious about using Israel as a topic, even if it’s not directly related to this discussion). That is not what this candidate I believe is referring to. He may be a radical, Christian Nationalist type. I re-edited my original post to include mention of Ah-Nold as he is from Austria, similar as this GOP Candidate.
As a precaution; I stay away from the I-P chatter especially as a Reform Jewish individual. I already have enough discussion with my fellow tribe on this matter and would rather keep this out of TDB discussion.
It's just a Some Dude, making SomeDude-ish comments for the attention (and succeeding in getting MSM attention in this case).
It's pretty easy to get on the ballot in California. It just takes your checkbook (for the filing fee), and on the form you just check off which political party you want to be listed under, and voilà.
You nailed it.
So far, I am not seeing much activity on the GOP side as far as notable gubernatorial candidates.