Platner released a poll last week showing him up 4%. That sounds about right. Currently, now Maine is D plus 14. If this current political environment for Republicans holds Collins could have a hard time overcoming that even with Platner's baggage.
The rumor has been floating around social media over the past week. Hard to take it seriously since if it was real it probably would have come out in her previous races. Her 2020 race against Gideon drew a great deal of national attention. At this point Collins is a known quantity and views on her are well formed. Even if it was real it's hard to believe that Platner would be able to capitalize given his "issues".
This has been going around for decades. I'd heard it before they were married, and I am not an insider by any stretch. Never seen anything substantiated.
Not saying we should believe it, but there is definitely precedent for opposition research missing major negative stories about candidates.
George Santos made it through two elections without his false history being dug into. Roy Moore was involved in politics for decades and it was only in the senate special that his flaws became a real issue.
I doubt it's the case here, but it's not impossible for an incumbent senator with long tenure to have previously undisclosed flaws.
For anyone who wants to boost Democrats' chances in Iowa, there are two statewide postcard campaigns - Postcards to Swing States for GOTV and Field Team 6 for voter registration..
Even before the IA primaries, Postcards to Swing States (https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/) included Iowa on their "swing state" list. Each state has its own postcard design, but the same three script choices are available for all campaigns - these are "battle-tested" messages that work best for the target audience - progressive-leaning but low-propensity voters. (FYI, there is one postcard design that is used for all the swing district campaigns).
They mail you the postcards for free (100 postcards minimum), but you are responsible for the postage**. These postcards are "write and hold" to maximize the efficacy with low propensity voters. Each campaign has a mid-October mail date and a late-October mail date with the earlier mail date cards distributed first. But the mail date is clearly indicated in the instructions.
Field Team 6 (https://postcards.fieldteam6.org/) has a new smallish campaign to recruit new voters in IA using scripts directed at electing Democratic IA senate candidate, John Turek. You can choose any one of 6 scripts contrasting what Turek would do to Trump/GOP policies that are hurting Iowans. Field team 6 has an easy-to-use, self-serve, postcard platform to download scripts and names and addresses. You can buy FT6 postcards online or use ones that you have made-yourself or bought elsewhere elsewhere. You are also responsible for postage. These postcards are "mail as you write" to encourage people to register now!
**USPS has requested a 4 cent per stamp increase in postage which (if approved ) would go into effect on July 12th. Even though they are not labeled "Forever" like the 1st class stamps postcard stamps work the same way. So if you can swing it, buying postcard stamps now will likely save you money vs. buying them when it gets to October and they need to be mailed.
Plus in 2024, many postcard writers I know had to scramble to find postcard stamps because many post offices did not anticipate demand! You can always order them from USPS.com but there is a small shipping charge. Last time I ordered stamps it was $2.75 for any size order.
IN-SoS: Probably you all know this already but "Beau" Bayh is actually Birch Evans Bayh IV, son of "Evan" who is Birch Evans Bayh III, son of "Birch" who was Birch Evans Bayh, Jr. son of Birch Evans Bayh, Sr. whose mother's maiden name was Evans.
I’m really high on Beau Bayh, especially if Morales wins renomination. Idk what his odds are of that in two weeks, but hopefully he pulls the whole “establishment is out to get me” victim card. GOP eats that slop up.
I think I will have lost faith in the Texas populous for the time being if they elect someone like Paxton over someone like Talarico, though Cruz was as hated as Paxton and O'Rourke had the populist appeal Talarico had but still lost.
By all accounts Cruz is actually a decent guy when the cameras aren't rolling. He's known for being one of the most generous tippers in DC, and genuinely has the respect of his Dem colleagues (unlike e.g. Ron Johnson, Rick Scott or Mike Lee).
Paxton OTOH seems to be universally detested as a genuine POS.
Bill Huizenga is also an overperformer. Ever since the district was redrawn to be competitive in 2022, he has won by double digits as Republicans statewide have done worse. Gretchen Whitmer won it in her 2022 re-election, and like you said, Trump only won it by single digits, even though Huizenga won it by double digits in both of those years.
as I continue to hope this will be a reverse 1978/2010 wipeout, it's my hope that much like popular longstanding overperformers (Senator McIntyre D-NH) were wiped out by relatively unknown republicans, huizenga and a plethora of 10-20 overperformers is wiped out. I think this is the year fitzpatrick loses in bucks county pa as well.
Much like 1978, there is a stagnant economy, horrible polling for the incumbent party, and a president that has demonstrated he does not care about the average American voter (in Carter's case he was perceived that way not saying it's apples to apples the whole way)
respectfully disagree on carter. Great man, but he went out of his way to kill universal healthcare while we had veto proof majorities. His own HHS secretary resigned in protest of same.
He also was against full employment, i.e. humphrey hawkins act. Not to take away anything from what he did after leaving the white house, aside from his childish grudge against ted kennedy. There is a reason that liberal democrats pulled the lever for john anderson, and it wasn't because carter cared too much, in fact his lack of care is probably why he couldnt even carry the liberal bastion of Massachusetts in his reelection campaign
Rob Sand chose Crawford County Supervisor, rancher, and brief 2022 Senate candidate Dave Muhlbauer as his running mate. Seems like an excellent pick, and I’m liking the concentration of western Iowa Democrats being pushed for statewide office this year.
Crawford County went to Trump 71-28. Sand lost it 72-28 in 2022.
Dave seems like he might be a good candidate for the Grassley seat if he and Sand win this year. His 2022 Senate run indicates he already has Senate ambitions. He definitely doesn’t look like your typical Democrat.
I'm pleased that Beau Bayh will be the Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in Indiana.
Republicans are clearly running scared of him, as they are now "shocked, shocked" that Morales has been hiring a relative to work in his office, spending big on trips, and buying expensive vehicles to use. All of that was known, but now Republicans are "shocked" that he hired someone who was not a U.S. citizen to work in his office, and that, not the likely misuse of office funds is what gets them going, perhaps because it dovetails with Senator Jim Banks's hardline stance on immigration. Banks has moved this year to expand his hold on the Indiana Republican party and to curry favor with Trump. I keep wondering what his long-term plans are.
Looks like Roberto Sanchez Palamino will pull into the lead in Peru as the rural vote is coming in late. He'll need to build a decent margin as they are waiting on the international vote to be counted which Fujimori is expected to win by well over 100K votes, it's going to be close as it always is in Peru.
It's as if the electorate never changes and almost everyone votes the same way every election. Right now they're separated by fewer than 700 votes out of some 17.5 million cast.
Mississippi state Rep. Bo Brown, a Democrat from Jackson, has died. He is the second incumbent in the legislature to die this week. There are varying reports on his age (some sources say 81, some say 76). He won uncontested in 2023, as did Republican Rep. Price Wallace, who also just died.
Fulton County, Georgia commission: Incumbent chair Robb Pitts, 84, is facing a spirited Democratic primary challenge on June 16's runoff from his fellow commissioner Mo Ivory, 55, who received an endorsement from Atlanta mayor Andre Dickens. The other Democrats on the commission seem to favor Pitts to hold his position.
Small quibble: FL-02 was already redrawn in 2016 to go from a Lean/Likely R seat to very dark red. That's not at all to diminish how incredible Graham's 2014 win was, but that's why the R candidates from 2016 onwards put up 30+ point margins here
She's a great pick. She's got progressive bonafides as well as a history of working across the aisle. If Jolly and her win the race (and if the GOP supermajority is broken), I can see them getting some commonsense legislation passed that RDS and Scott ignored -- like creating the homeowners insurance fund and properly funding public schools.
I feel for Gillum and other politicians like Thomas Eagleton whose careers have been ended by mental illness, which should not be an issue that drags down candidates. But Gillum dragged down that whole ticket (apart from Nikki Fried) in 2018, and is probably part of the reason Bill Nelson lost.
Nelson was 76 running against a sitting governor who could self fund and outspent him 2-1. Scott also had the benefit of being able to respond well to a couple of hurricanes that year which ended up boosting his numbers toward the end.
I distinctly recall Scott stating confidently that he was going to run "scared as a jackrabbit" to reassure people that he was going to take the race seriously and campaign full out.
Then he sat around and had mediocre fundraising that only enabled him to truly start his campaign in earnest in something like August or September.
He could have won if he had only taken his reelection seriously from the start of the year, with some serious fundraising from the get-go instead of waiting around.
FL-22: Palm Beach County mayor Sarah Baxter is in for a very crowded Republican primary, though her, academic administrator Belinda Keiser, and businessmen Michael Carbonara and Casey Askar are likely the most prominent candidates.
LA-5: Republican state Rep. Gabe Firment will likely run here, joining state Sen. Blake Miguez, state Rep. Michael Echols, Louisiana Regent Misti Cordell and veteran Sammy Wyatt. Several other legislators filed or considered before dropping out to clear the field for Miguez.
There’s no reason why California can’t implement a faster mail ballot system that maintains accuracy and security (I know a lot of CA voters waited until the day of before dropping off their ballots). FL does it by pre processing the ballots starting three weeks before ED and manages to get 95% of the ballots counted by midnight.
And meanwhile Trump and his surrogates continue to peddle misinformation and whip up distrust of the election authorities. They were doing it just now on CNN. It is an unforgivable own goal in this era of conspiracy theories and anti-democratic rhetoric.
It's impossible to count a ballot before it comes in. A big part of why California's vote counting takes so long is that they give time to show up for ballots only dropped in the mail on election day.
This I acknowledge has become a problem. I perhaps was a bit dismissive last week when I was saying day two of the election results that it’s not really unusual compared to how things were in 2020.
That said, California still has one of the largest populations in the U.S. It used to not take so long to count ballots in the 2000’s and 2010’s when Jerry Brown was elected twice as Governor. There’s no reason why Becerra or Steyer wouldn’t push for this.
Secretary of State Shirley Weber certainly has her work cut out for her in her next term.
If Collins is releasing a poll by her, and Trump's pollster, showing her tied with Platner after the "sexting" story then she is probably losing.
At the moment.
But she is not down 7-10, either.
Platner released a poll last week showing him up 4%. That sounds about right. Currently, now Maine is D plus 14. If this current political environment for Republicans holds Collins could have a hard time overcoming that even with Platner's baggage.
Or is she? The public polls have had her down by those margins.
EDIT: Unsubstantiated rumor
Gonna have to ask you to share a link backing this up or else delete if it's just rumor.
https://x.com/aobrien2010/status/2061493058999308612
The best I can find is this tweet from Andy O'Brien, a Maine-based journalist.
Thanks. This is as absolutely thin as can be and barely rises to the level of rumor.
@MPC, please delete your comment unless there's something more.
The rumor has been floating around social media over the past week. Hard to take it seriously since if it was real it probably would have come out in her previous races. Her 2020 race against Gideon drew a great deal of national attention. At this point Collins is a known quantity and views on her are well formed. Even if it was real it's hard to believe that Platner would be able to capitalize given his "issues".
This has been going around for decades. I'd heard it before they were married, and I am not an insider by any stretch. Never seen anything substantiated.
Not saying we should believe it, but there is definitely precedent for opposition research missing major negative stories about candidates.
George Santos made it through two elections without his false history being dug into. Roy Moore was involved in politics for decades and it was only in the senate special that his flaws became a real issue.
I doubt it's the case here, but it's not impossible for an incumbent senator with long tenure to have previously undisclosed flaws.
Thank you for the background on Lahn. It's so tough to find the truth in all the mucky water. I appreciate it!
Caron Wedeking, subscriber and (reluctant) Iowan
Glad you appreciated, Caron!
For anyone who wants to boost Democrats' chances in Iowa, there are two statewide postcard campaigns - Postcards to Swing States for GOTV and Field Team 6 for voter registration..
Even before the IA primaries, Postcards to Swing States (https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/) included Iowa on their "swing state" list. Each state has its own postcard design, but the same three script choices are available for all campaigns - these are "battle-tested" messages that work best for the target audience - progressive-leaning but low-propensity voters. (FYI, there is one postcard design that is used for all the swing district campaigns).
They mail you the postcards for free (100 postcards minimum), but you are responsible for the postage**. These postcards are "write and hold" to maximize the efficacy with low propensity voters. Each campaign has a mid-October mail date and a late-October mail date with the earlier mail date cards distributed first. But the mail date is clearly indicated in the instructions.
Field Team 6 (https://postcards.fieldteam6.org/) has a new smallish campaign to recruit new voters in IA using scripts directed at electing Democratic IA senate candidate, John Turek. You can choose any one of 6 scripts contrasting what Turek would do to Trump/GOP policies that are hurting Iowans. Field team 6 has an easy-to-use, self-serve, postcard platform to download scripts and names and addresses. You can buy FT6 postcards online or use ones that you have made-yourself or bought elsewhere elsewhere. You are also responsible for postage. These postcards are "mail as you write" to encourage people to register now!
**USPS has requested a 4 cent per stamp increase in postage which (if approved ) would go into effect on July 12th. Even though they are not labeled "Forever" like the 1st class stamps postcard stamps work the same way. So if you can swing it, buying postcard stamps now will likely save you money vs. buying them when it gets to October and they need to be mailed.
Plus in 2024, many postcard writers I know had to scramble to find postcard stamps because many post offices did not anticipate demand! You can always order them from USPS.com but there is a small shipping charge. Last time I ordered stamps it was $2.75 for any size order.
Thanks for this great info!
IA-Gov: The stuff about how Lahn ended up divorced and marred to Koch's ex-wife sounds potentially interesting too...
IN-SoS: Probably you all know this already but "Beau" Bayh is actually Birch Evans Bayh IV, son of "Evan" who is Birch Evans Bayh III, son of "Birch" who was Birch Evans Bayh, Jr. son of Birch Evans Bayh, Sr. whose mother's maiden name was Evans.
I've always loved this fact!
Sort of like how "Beau" Biden was Joseph Robinette Biden III, son of "Joe" who is Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., who is son of Joseph Robinette Biden Sr.
And Harry, Skip, Chip, and Chris Caray are all Harry Christopher Caray (Sr. Jr. III, IV)
I’m really high on Beau Bayh, especially if Morales wins renomination. Idk what his odds are of that in two weeks, but hopefully he pulls the whole “establishment is out to get me” victim card. GOP eats that slop up.
https://www.notus.org/2026-election/ken-paxton-lawyer-james-talarico-endorsement
TX-Sen: Dan Cogdell, who represented Ken Paxton during his impeachment trial, has endorsed James Talarico.
This guy gave money to Paxton less than a year ago. Crazy. I'll take it.
It occurs to me that, beyond an endorsement or fundraising, this guy would make a terrific surrogate for Talarico with Texas Republicans.
Wow, talk about someone who almost NO-ONE likes once they know them personally.
I think I will have lost faith in the Texas populous for the time being if they elect someone like Paxton over someone like Talarico, though Cruz was as hated as Paxton and O'Rourke had the populist appeal Talarico had but still lost.
By all accounts Cruz is actually a decent guy when the cameras aren't rolling. He's known for being one of the most generous tippers in DC, and genuinely has the respect of his Dem colleagues (unlike e.g. Ron Johnson, Rick Scott or Mike Lee).
Paxton OTOH seems to be universally detested as a genuine POS.
Haven't several senators said that Cruz is the most hated man in the Senate?
Pre-scandal Al Franken said that Cruz was the Senate equivalent of "the toxic guy in an office, the guy who microwaves fish."
The joke is that Cruz is so hated, if Trump nominated him for the next SCOTUS vacancy, he'd be confirmed 100-0, just to get him out of the Senate.
Whatever ....
Definitely the first I've heard anybody say that!
Well he's got Tony Buzbee on his side lol
MI-04: New internal poll for state sen. Sean McCann has McCann leading Huizenga 48-45.
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs/production/ccda2c8d25bff941db386e92af5645f662b89017.pdf
These would be the seats we would need to win considering the playing field has gotten thinner
we do not need to win this seat to secure a majority, to get above 230ish seats yes absolutely
Bill Huizenga is also an overperformer. Ever since the district was redrawn to be competitive in 2022, he has won by double digits as Republicans statewide have done worse. Gretchen Whitmer won it in her 2022 re-election, and like you said, Trump only won it by single digits, even though Huizenga won it by double digits in both of those years.
It is possible though Huizenga might have the same fortune this time around.
Mike Lawler did manage to win re-election even while he represents a Lean Blue district. Now he’s vulnerable heading to November.
as I continue to hope this will be a reverse 1978/2010 wipeout, it's my hope that much like popular longstanding overperformers (Senator McIntyre D-NH) were wiped out by relatively unknown republicans, huizenga and a plethora of 10-20 overperformers is wiped out. I think this is the year fitzpatrick loses in bucks county pa as well.
Much like 1978, there is a stagnant economy, horrible polling for the incumbent party, and a president that has demonstrated he does not care about the average American voter (in Carter's case he was perceived that way not saying it's apples to apples the whole way)
Carter's problem was that he cared too much and saw the way the country was shifting before many others did.
respectfully disagree on carter. Great man, but he went out of his way to kill universal healthcare while we had veto proof majorities. His own HHS secretary resigned in protest of same.
He also was against full employment, i.e. humphrey hawkins act. Not to take away anything from what he did after leaving the white house, aside from his childish grudge against ted kennedy. There is a reason that liberal democrats pulled the lever for john anderson, and it wasn't because carter cared too much, in fact his lack of care is probably why he couldnt even carry the liberal bastion of Massachusetts in his reelection campaign
Don’t forget that Carter was pushing for renewable energy, especially solar.
That was well ahead of where the U.S. was at the time.
Rob Sand chose Crawford County Supervisor, rancher, and brief 2022 Senate candidate Dave Muhlbauer as his running mate. Seems like an excellent pick, and I’m liking the concentration of western Iowa Democrats being pushed for statewide office this year.
Crawford County went to Trump 71-28. Sand lost it 72-28 in 2022.
Dave seems like he might be a good candidate for the Grassley seat if he and Sand win this year. His 2022 Senate run indicates he already has Senate ambitions. He definitely doesn’t look like your typical Democrat.
I'm pleased that Beau Bayh will be the Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in Indiana.
Republicans are clearly running scared of him, as they are now "shocked, shocked" that Morales has been hiring a relative to work in his office, spending big on trips, and buying expensive vehicles to use. All of that was known, but now Republicans are "shocked" that he hired someone who was not a U.S. citizen to work in his office, and that, not the likely misuse of office funds is what gets them going, perhaps because it dovetails with Senator Jim Banks's hardline stance on immigration. Banks has moved this year to expand his hold on the Indiana Republican party and to curry favor with Trump. I keep wondering what his long-term plans are.
Looks like Roberto Sanchez Palamino will pull into the lead in Peru as the rural vote is coming in late. He'll need to build a decent margin as they are waiting on the international vote to be counted which Fujimori is expected to win by well over 100K votes, it's going to be close as it always is in Peru.
It's as if the electorate never changes and almost everyone votes the same way every election. Right now they're separated by fewer than 700 votes out of some 17.5 million cast.
He now up by about 9k with almost 95% of the vote in
I think that foreign ballots are expected to put Fujimori over the top.
Peru's ONPE electoral authority said a full count was expected to be completed by July.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-conservative-fujimori-leads-presidential-vote-with-90-votes-counted-2026-06-08/
He’s now up by 36,000 with 95% counted.
https://www.wlbt.com/2026/06/08/state-representative-former-jackson-city-councilman-passes-away/
Mississippi state Rep. Bo Brown, a Democrat from Jackson, has died. He is the second incumbent in the legislature to die this week. There are varying reports on his age (some sources say 81, some say 76). He won uncontested in 2023, as did Republican Rep. Price Wallace, who also just died.
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/endorsements-split-fulton-county-commission-chair-race
Fulton County, Georgia commission: Incumbent chair Robb Pitts, 84, is facing a spirited Democratic primary challenge on June 16's runoff from his fellow commissioner Mo Ivory, 55, who received an endorsement from Atlanta mayor Andre Dickens. The other Democrats on the commission seem to favor Pitts to hold his position.
FL-GOV: Jolly to pick former U.S. rep Gwen Graham as running mate
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jolly-to-pick-gwen-graham-as-running-mate-sources-say/ar-AA256Qye?ocid=BingNewsVerp
https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/06/08/gwen-graham-named-as-david-jollys-running-mate-by-pastor/90456965007/
Small quibble: FL-02 was already redrawn in 2016 to go from a Lean/Likely R seat to very dark red. That's not at all to diminish how incredible Graham's 2014 win was, but that's why the R candidates from 2016 onwards put up 30+ point margins here
The current iteration of the district is about the same as the pre-2016 one. Like other seats, it has just shifted far yo the right.
I would have rather she run herself, but this is fine too.
She's a great pick. She's got progressive bonafides as well as a history of working across the aisle. If Jolly and her win the race (and if the GOP supermajority is broken), I can see them getting some commonsense legislation passed that RDS and Scott ignored -- like creating the homeowners insurance fund and properly funding public schools.
it's admirable she continues to be a team player, i liked gillum, but with the passage of time it's pretty clear she would have won in 2018
I feel for Gillum and other politicians like Thomas Eagleton whose careers have been ended by mental illness, which should not be an issue that drags down candidates. But Gillum dragged down that whole ticket (apart from Nikki Fried) in 2018, and is probably part of the reason Bill Nelson lost.
Gillum definitely didn't help, but Nelson's loss was also due to factors in his own race.
Yeah, Nelson didn't even campaign until the very end. If anything, it was the other way around.
nelson ran such a bad race, so so bad
I don't think that's what you were going for, but I read this in Trump's voice. "So so bad, woke Bill Nelson!"
Nelson was 76 running against a sitting governor who could self fund and outspent him 2-1. Scott also had the benefit of being able to respond well to a couple of hurricanes that year which ended up boosting his numbers toward the end.
I distinctly recall Scott stating confidently that he was going to run "scared as a jackrabbit" to reassure people that he was going to take the race seriously and campaign full out.
Then he sat around and had mediocre fundraising that only enabled him to truly start his campaign in earnest in something like August or September.
He could have won if he had only taken his reelection seriously from the start of the year, with some serious fundraising from the get-go instead of waiting around.
Now we’re talking!
Jolly’s definitely playing hardball with his choice of Graham as his running mate.
https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-06-08/baxter-drops-palm-beach-county-commission-bid-to-run-for-congress
FL-22: Palm Beach County mayor Sarah Baxter is in for a very crowded Republican primary, though her, academic administrator Belinda Keiser, and businessmen Michael Carbonara and Casey Askar are likely the most prominent candidates.
www.kalb.com/2026/06/08/state-rep-gabe-firment-considering-run-congress/%3foutputType=amp
LA-5: Republican state Rep. Gabe Firment will likely run here, joining state Sen. Blake Miguez, state Rep. Michael Echols, Louisiana Regent Misti Cordell and veteran Sammy Wyatt. Several other legislators filed or considered before dropping out to clear the field for Miguez.
With just over 2 million ballots left, 79.3% in, Steyer is almost under 200k behind, at minus 212k.
When the day started, he was over 300k behind with over 70% in. Around 72% IIRC.
Of he keeps making up 90-100k of ballots every 8% or so, we have ourselves a ballgame for 2nd.
No idea from whence these votes counted came today. Still no call.
There’s no reason why California can’t implement a faster mail ballot system that maintains accuracy and security (I know a lot of CA voters waited until the day of before dropping off their ballots). FL does it by pre processing the ballots starting three weeks before ED and manages to get 95% of the ballots counted by midnight.
And meanwhile Trump and his surrogates continue to peddle misinformation and whip up distrust of the election authorities. They were doing it just now on CNN. It is an unforgivable own goal in this era of conspiracy theories and anti-democratic rhetoric.
It's not an own goal. They're not attacking Republican votes.
It's impossible to count a ballot before it comes in. A big part of why California's vote counting takes so long is that they give time to show up for ballots only dropped in the mail on election day.
California can certainly invest more resources to hire and train election workers to process the big batches of ballots coming in.
This I acknowledge has become a problem. I perhaps was a bit dismissive last week when I was saying day two of the election results that it’s not really unusual compared to how things were in 2020.
That said, California still has one of the largest populations in the U.S. It used to not take so long to count ballots in the 2000’s and 2010’s when Jerry Brown was elected twice as Governor. There’s no reason why Becerra or Steyer wouldn’t push for this.
Secretary of State Shirley Weber certainly has her work cut out for her in her next term.