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Cameron Arceneaux's avatar

Marc Veasey’s base in Fort Worth is now in a republican district, the new 30th only contains a tiny chunk of southeast Tarrant County in Grand Prairie and Arlington that was never in his district before

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Paleo's avatar

I expect a Bob Menendez pardon as the next stop in Trump’s pro-corruption tour.

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Hudson Democrat's avatar

sigh

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Mark's avatar

Anthony Weiner?

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Julius Zinn's avatar

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/04/texas-house-republicans-power-fading-00676389

Among other things, this article speculates that one more Republican from Texas could make a surprise retirement in the next few days.

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Alex Hupp's avatar

"Texas exodus underscores the state’s fading relevance in the House GOP"

C'mon Politico, Texodus was RIGHT THERE.

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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Alright, who are we thinking. I’m personally thinking Roger Williams, Pete Sessions, or Randy Weber. Dan Crenshaw and Micheal Cloud are my sleeper picks.

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alienalias's avatar

I know John Carter has signaled he's gonna run again, but he's so old.

Edit: Okay finally read the piece, and it also says that Ronny Jackson is try to get a job in the admin at some point (even if he runs for reelection). Separately, I'll also note that Williams has another term to lead Repubs on Small Business and may stick around just for that, but it's sort of a do-nothing committee and he may not want to stay on as ranking if he thinks they'll be in the minority--and ofc Arrington has the same term limit but is already leaving Budget (a more powerful committee insofar as rec bills, not really in practice during spending debates, but he might also just see the last rec bill and the potential for one more next year as his legacy and not think they'll have a trifecta to try next term).

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finnley's avatar

Maybe Pat Fallon. Last cycle he announced his retirement then took it back the day after.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm tempted to say "Pat Who?" There are a lot of anonymous members of Congress.

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Paleo's avatar

Honduran presidential election. Unfortunately, Asfura has retaken the lead by 8,000 votes with 85% in. No idea where the remaining vote comes from and who it would favor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Honduran_general_election

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ArcticStones's avatar

The slowness of the Honduran vote count seems highly suspicious. "Technical glitches" don’t just happen, they have a cause. I do hope we are not witnessing election shenanigans.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

The whole thing is very suspicious and I don't trust it at all.

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Paleo's avatar

Honduran centrist candidate Salvador Nasralla alleged fraud in the country's highly contested presidential vote on Thursday after his Trump-backed rival Nasry Asfura pulled narrowly past him overnight.

Nasralla, in a post on X, said the screen displaying the vote data went blank at 3:24 a.m. and alleged "an algorithm changed the data," giving the higher tally to Asfura after Nasralla had been leading the vote count since Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/honduras-election-swings-again-conservative-asfura-takes-slim-lead-2025-12-04/

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ArcticStones's avatar

So, Tijerina is a party flipper but Cuellar is not. Very interesting...

In 2022, we had a chance to upgrade to Jessica Cisneros, but that ship sailed.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Cisneros would likely have won the Beto-Biden-Beto-Allred district but would have lost in 2024. We would have gotten a more mainstream pro labor Dem in 2026 though. But it would be a tragedy if we somehow lost the House by 1 seat in 2024. I think a normal moderate Democrats should still run in this district and primary him.

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Diogenes's avatar

Cisneros lost to Cuellar by 289 votes in 2022. For the moment, a corrupt anti-abortion blue dog Democrat is the best we can hope for in Texas 28.

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D S's avatar
Dec 5Edited

I'm sure there are fairly moderate, vaguely pro-choice candidates who can win. Gonzalez represents a fairly similar district and is not corrupt or anti-abortion, and is moderate without being full conservacrat

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Yeah, I wonder how the NRCC and local GOP officials are reacting to this, at least privately.

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Zero Cool's avatar

About the best thing having Cuellar run for re-election is that Trump has made it harder for the GOP to unseat him with his pardon.

One less House seat for Democrats to worry about but that won’t stop Democratic challengers in the future (even in 2028 and beyond) from running against Cuellar.

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finnley's avatar

Justice Democrats backs Melat Kiros for Co-1, challenging incumbent Diana DeGette.

https://x.com/justicedems/status/1996580438387597338

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Kildere53's avatar

Yikes, she's the one with extremely problematic views (to say the least) on the forbidden topic.

DeGette has never looked particularly vulnerable in a primary. I suspect she will win easily.

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PollJunkie's avatar

This is just another proxy to discuss her views. Not that I agree or know about her views.

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Techno00's avatar

I have to agree. I’d avoid discussing I-P as that conflict brings nothing but ugliness and fighting when it’s brought up.

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Zero Cool's avatar

If we're talking about Israel as it relates to issues the country faces and the elections outside of the I-P topic, that's a better point of discussion.

However, I'm still going to err on the side of caution in even bringing up Israel in the first place, at least for now.

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stevk's avatar

Even putting aside I/P, what exactly is anyone's objection to DeGette? As far as I know, she's a pretty mainstream Democrat.

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Jay's avatar

I hope someone unseats DeGette, but I have my doubts. DeGette is an institution. And Kiros and Wanda James will probably split the anti-incumbent vote.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Has Wanda James candidacy caught steam?

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finnley's avatar

She raised about as much as Kiros did last quarter, so they seem like they're on equal footing.

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finnley's avatar

If I were Justice Democrats I would stay out of this primary and see how it goes, then decide what to do abt it in 2028.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

I want her to retire if we do manage to redistrict the state so she isn't pressuring to keep all of Denver in one district.

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DHfromKY's avatar

KY-Sen: The "few other Democrats" who are running have names: Pam Stevenson, Logan Forsythe, and Joel Willett. There are a few others (there almost always are) who don't appear to be serious, but I am taking those three, along with McGrath and Booker, seriously. I haven't decided which of them I will back in the primary, much less which of them I will vote for.

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Dale Romans

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DHfromKY's avatar

I've seen the name a few times, but it never really stuck. I was probably put off by the "independent Democrat" label and by the horsey connections. I'll take him seriously as a candidate, but probably won't be voting for him in the primary. Anyway, thanks for prompting me to take a closer look at him.

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Henrik's avatar

An equestrian background would usually be a boon in Kentucky, no?

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DHfromKY's avatar

Romans' success as a trainer probably gives him a fair amount of name recognition in some circles, which may translate into being familiar to, or known by, people with Serious Money. As for being an advantage with average voters who aren't involved in, or serious fans of, racing, probably not as much as you might think.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡

@PollTracker2024

(Republicans surveyed)

Indicate whether you think the following is true or false.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1996599120849494263

2020 big lie, 9/11 trutherism, Holocaust revisionism 🤦‍♂️

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Techno00's avatar

Stay classy Republicans.

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FeingoldFan's avatar

Honestly, I’m more shocked that moon landing denial is so high. There being as many Republicans who think the moon landing was faked as there are Republicans Holocaust deniers seems to imply the main thing that is driving this is general conspiracy theory craziness rather than bigotry, which is also deeply concerning but a different problem from the party being filled with Nazis.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Why not both?

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michaelflutist's avatar

To be fair, the first question is absolutely possible.

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PollJunkie's avatar

It's the official CIA finding too but scientists don't agree with it.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I thought they were split on it, considering that COVID-19 could have either originated from the Chinese laboratory or from wildlife sold in that wet market in Wuhan.

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Henrik's avatar

I think the conspiracy theory about it being *intentionally* released by a bio weapons lab, even perhaps engineered in one, is kooky. I think there is a lot of merit to the idea that a virus under study there was accidentally let out of containment via human error.

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stevk's avatar

Agreed...I think this is the most likely scenario (accidental release through human error/carelessness).

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michaelflutist's avatar

Right, but that's not the phrasing shown in that post.

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Techno00's avatar

NY-7:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/nyregion/reynoso-velazquez-dsa-congress.html

Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso is in. (And State Sen. Julia Salazar is out.)

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Interesting

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Henrik's avatar

Huh, I really thought Salazar would leap at such an opportunity. Color me surprised

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Techno00's avatar

Ditto, I thought she’d be the frontrunner if she did run.

Maybe progressives will consolidate around Reynoso?

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finnley's avatar

When there was speculation she could challenge AOC in 2020 (ridiculous considering their closeness in policy) she said she had no intention of ever running for Congress. Ofc a lot can change in 5ish years but I’m not shocked she passed on it.

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Julius Zinn's avatar

TN-7: Matt Van Epps was sworn in after 36 hours, while Adelita Grijalva took over a month to be sworn into AZ-7.

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MPC's avatar

Speaker Dweeb Johnson keeps on dweebing for the GOP.

I'm so looking forward to seeing his face next year when he has to hand over the Speaker's gavel to Hakeem Jefferies.

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Marcus Graly's avatar

What? No waiting until the results are officially certified? Shocked, shocked that there is gambling...

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JoeyJoeJoe1980's avatar

The IL-4 item reminds me of instances where democrats ran under different parties when they were blocked from running as democrats. In 1972, Joe Moakley ran under the Independent Conservative” party against Louise Day Hicks in the then MA-8. In a 1978 special election in the South Bronx, Robert Garcia (I think that’s his name) actually ran as a Republican, but said that he would serve as a Democrat if elected.

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Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Coldwater, KS Mayor - Joe Ceballos, the Republican mayor of Coldwater, Kansas, located in the south-central/southwestern part of the state with a population of 687, has been voting in elections since 1991 (!!!) and running for, and holding, elected office for around a decade or so...despite being a noncitizen immigrant.

Ceballos is now facing election fraud charges and possible deportation.

https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2025-11-29/coldwater-mayor-voter-fraud-deportation-ceballos-kansas-attorney-general

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Deporting republican politicians? This is something I can get behind

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anonymouse's avatar

Yep. Zero sympathy for him. I reserve my limited supply of that for people who didn’t actively work to screw themselves over.

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alienalias's avatar

This bloc confirmation has to be resubmitted after Mike Bennet made a successful parliamentary point of order that Sara Carter (listed under her legal name, Sara Bailey) cannot be in the bloc as a nominee to a role on Level I of the Executive Schedule (mostly Cabinet-level roles, including her former Cabinet-level nomination as Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy) without passing cloture rather than the simple majority threshold for most other nominees. So the cloture vote failed. A Thune staffer stated that it'll be resubmitted without her name, and would add more names from the 88 total it is now.

Some other notable nominees who are approaching confirmation include former reps Anthony D'Esposito as Inspector General of DOL and Yvette Herrell (under her legal name Stella Herrell) as Assistant Secretary of USDA for Congressional Relations. Bigoted toad Brent Bozell will be Ambassador to South Africa. I assume that Henry Mack from Florida (nominated as Assistant Sec of DOL for Employment and Training) is related to the clan of Connie Macks but don't know for sure.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-resolution/520/text

https://x.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1996647889238696394?s=20

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Speaking of the Macks, it is worth mentioning that Brent Bozell is descended from the Buckleys (the two most prominent being conservative commentator William and former Sen. James)

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Hudson Democrat's avatar

good point, as soon as I read Bozell I thought is the son of that nutjob that loved franco's spain? Bozell's dad was so nuts he stopped writing for the National Review and relocated to Spain to found the far right rag "Triumph." As terrible as buckley was, bozell's dead dad was arguably worse. Entire generations of families that lack empathy

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1996717277555638704?s=19

Ugh. Not surprising but disappointing.

(For those who don't click through, SCOTUS voted to stay the ruling blocking the TX gerrymander, so it will be in place for 2026)

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

The three Dems dissented, ofc

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Julius Zinn's avatar

What was their reasoning?

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

No written opinion, shadow docket.

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Ah. Very reasonable and completely up to the standards of the highest court in the most powerful country in Western civilization.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Actually I'm wrong there is a short opinion, two pages.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26338616/25a608-order.pdf

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Versus a 17 page dissent. Give me a break. Alito doesn't even mention why his opinion is constitutional. "Legislative good faith?" Are you kidding? At least Kagan actually wrote something that had worthwhile legal standing.

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alienalias's avatar

Just to say, Alito's opinion is a concurrence, so not necessarily the reasoning of the majority (only Thomas and Gorsuch joined it). But of course, it's the only reasoning for that side we have in the shadow docket vacuum.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

With that choice, they could easily delay any final ruling until after it won't matter anymore because it's the next census reapportionment.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Exactly

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Paleo's avatar

Yes, not a surprise.

The court’s brief, five-paragraph order indicated that “Texas is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that the District Court committed at least two serious errors.” Moreover, it added, the lower court “improperly inserted itself into an active primary campaign, causing much confusion and upsetting the delicate federal-state balance in elections.”

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Ugh, *wanking motion* with that last sentence.

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Jay's avatar

Another partisan ruling from the partisan supreme court. Apparently race is allowed to be considered while redistricting if republicans do it.

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Techno00's avatar

I’ll be curious to see how this ruling affects the VRA ruling later. Can’t say I’m optimistic.

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JoeyJoeJoe1980's avatar

Well, if the Supreme Court is going to act as an arm of the Republican Party, they’ll be treated as such when Democrats have control of Congress and/or the White House. They will have brought whatever negative consequences follow on themselves.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Hopefully Alito and Thomas are arrogant enough to not retire until 27 and Democrats can take the Senate and Garland them till old age kicks in but i'm not sure if Fetterman and all Dems will stick with that even if we are that lucky.

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finnley's avatar

The White House is apparently pressuring Young Kim to move to Ca-45 and challenge Derek Tran.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1996713130207084842

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Julius Zinn's avatar

So out of her, Calvert and Issa they're making her the sacrificial lamb and allowing Issa to move to a district 1,200 miles away. Makes total sense.

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methis's avatar

This should not be normalized. Moving a town over because of redraws maybe, but carpetbagging across the country like Issa, and frankly on our side, Abughazaleh in IL-9, I'm not a fan of.

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Exactly. I understand Todd Rokita moving from Clermont to Brownsburg, but certainly not Kat Abughazaleh moving from Washington, D.C. to Chicago.

My state, West Virginia, is also infamous for carpetbaggers - Gov. Patrick Morrisey is from Westfield, New Jersey, where he ran for Congress several times, former Sen. Jay Rockefeller is a prominent member of the New York based family, and former Rep. Alex Mooney was a Maryland state senator from Hagerstown and also ran for the New Hampshire legislature.

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JoeyJoeJoe1980's avatar

Regarding Mooney, back in 2010 I would regularly go to the Politics and Pints political trivia nights hosted by Chris Cilizza. By the way, I learned that the best way to make him laugh is with Simpsons references. Anyway, one night I was on a team with a guy who was working for Mooneys 2010 reelection campaign for MD State Senate. I asked him how it was going, and he said it was competitive but he was optimistic. My response was that 2010 looked like it was very to be pretty good for Republicans, so Mooney should be fine.

Oops

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Mooney is also a member of the Suarez family, which has had a combined total of nearly 20 years serving as mayor of Miami as a father-son duo.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Ah, so they want to make her cannon fodder.

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Colby's avatar

Anyone think his rationale is that the two Asian representatives should duke it out?

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alienalias's avatar

Yep. They think another Asian is best to beat Tran, and since Kim is an incumbent instead of asking Michelle Steel (who he first beat) to get back in, they're saying she should make the effort.

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Zero Cool's avatar

So Trump and his White House were not able to convince Michelle Steele to give it another go?

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Emerson poll | 12/1-12/2 RV

California Governor jungle primary (top two advance)

🟥Chad Bianco 13.3%

🟥Steve Hilton 11.5%

🟦Eric Swalwell 11.5%

🟦Katie Porter 11.0%

🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 5.0%

🟦Tom Steyer 4.3%

🟦Xavier Becerra 3.5%

🟦Betty Yee 1.9%

🟦Tony Thurmond 1.9%

🟦Ian Calderon 0.7%

Someone else 1.9%

Not planning to vote 2.5%

Undecided 31.0%

Good news for Eric Swalwell. Bad news for Xavier Becerra

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RL Miller's avatar

Emerson has posted a google spreadsheet with detailed breakdowns and all that. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M7dos7Uq53i1V82-a4_hmVlZauQ5oqTf/edit?gid=547919878#gid=547919878

All I can say is: Betty Three Percent is now Betty Two If You Round Up, and needs to drop out along with Becerra, Thurmond, and Calderon.

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alienalias's avatar

I know these are supposedly representative samples, but the Ns are so small...

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Zero Cool's avatar

Seems that Eric Swalwell is registering well with voters who are looking for an alternative to Katie Porter.

But let's not be fooled with the percentages that Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton are receiving in the poll so far. Still 31% undecided voters and the percentage will likely cut down over time heading towards the June primary.

Betty Yee, Ian Calderon and Tony Thurmond may drop out at some point although Calderon probably not as much just yet. He's the only millennial in the gubernatorial race and has legitimate issues of affordability that he wants to raise (although being pro-crypto is a deal breaker for me).

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Julius Zinn's avatar

I imagine Yee and Thurmond will - Kounalakis polled above them and still dropped out herself, as did Cloobeck at some points

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Zero Cool's avatar

Thurmond hasn't been making any waves nor even being talked about in the news of any sort. Same with Yee. As more Democratic Candidates like them get the message that dropping out will be important for the sake of Democrats winning the primary and general election, then the choices will be clearer.

Kounalakis may have decided that her energy was better served in a different state government role. Quite frankly, being Lt. Governor is such a low profile government job that Gavin Newsom's celebrity status is overshadowing anything she does. Kounalakis in running for State Treasurer also has more to do should she be elected.

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