Morning Digest: The GOP triages a top governor's race while Democrats bring one online

A star recruit fizzles as a red-state cakewalk turns dicey

Washington Republican Dave Reichert (credit: Dave Reichert campaign website)

Leading Off

IN-Gov, WA-Gov

The gubernatorial battlefield continues to shift in Democrats' favor as Republicans inject last-minute resources into a red state that should be a gimme and abandon a high-profile recruit who was supposed to put a blue state in play.

The Republican Governors Association just contributed another $750,000 to Indiana Republican Mike Braun, Politico's Adam Wren reports, which brings its total investment to $1 million for a race that looked uncompetitive just weeks ago. The move comes less than a week after the Democratic Governors Association donated $600,000 to Democrat Jennifer McCormick as the two rivals seek to replace the state's termed-out governor, Republican Eric Holcomb.

D.C. Republicans, by contrast, are still leaving their once-hyped prospect in Washington state, former Rep. Dave Reichert, to fend for himself in what was supposed to be one of the marquee races of 2024. Instead, Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat recently reported that, according to data from AdImpact, Democrat Bob Ferguson and his allies were outspending Reichert's side on ads by an almost unbelievable margin of $11 million to $225,000.

Times reporter Jim Brunner also noted Wednesday that, while the DGA has spent more than $5 million to help Ferguson, its GOP counterparts have yet to invest so much as a dollar. Both men are competing to succeed Democrat Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms, for an office Republicans last won in 1980.

Almost no one would have predicted even a few weeks ago that Reichert, a former congressman with a history of winning on Democratic-leaning turf, would find himself in a less competitive race than McCormick's. The Washington Observer, however, noted a month ago that the RGA had yet to do anything to help Reichert overcome his huge financial deficit in this blue state, a state of affairs that has not budged.

Because ballots will be mailed out next week in the Evergreen State, which votes almost entirely by mail, time is rapidly running out for a late GOP offensive. Early voting isn't as widespread in Indiana, however, so outside groups have more time to make a move before many ballots are cast.

So why is reliably red Indiana suddenly looking considerably hotter than Washington? One reason, as we noted recently, is the candidacy of Indiana Libertarian Donald Rainwater, who took 11% against Holcomb four years ago and could disproportionately hurt Braun. By contrast, Reichert and Ferguson are the only candidates on the ballot for their race, so there's no potential third-party spoiler for the Democratic frontrunner.

Far-right convention delegates also have caused both Braun and Reichert heartburn, albeit in different ways.

This summer, GOP convention-goers in Indiana picked a far-right pastor named Micah Beckwith to serve as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor instead of Braun's less exotic choice. While Braun quickly embraced his unwanted running mate, Beckwith has continued to be an unwelcome distraction, recently returning to the headlines when he compared McCormick to the Biblical villain Jezebel.

"If you look at the Republican ticket versus the Democrat ticket, its strength and Godly boldness versus what I would say is the Jezebel spirit and this idea of … boldness for immorality," Beckwith told a rightwing podcast. 

In a debate last week, McCormick called on Braun to apologize both for his running mate's words and for digitally manipulated commercials he's aired attacking her.

"And again, we never even addressed your ticket referring to me as a Jezebel Spirit, which is beyond the Hoosier values," the Democrat said. "That is why people are tired of extremism."

Braun offered no apologies in response, but he's stuck with Beckwith, since the two will appear jointly on the ballot as a single ticket. (McCormick's number-two, former state Rep. Terry Goodin, has played the more traditional role expected of candidates for lieutenant governor.)

Reichert, meanwhile, is dealing with the consequences of a different kind of convention debacle. At the GOP's gathering this spring, delegates snubbed Reichert and instead endorsed the candidacy of his far-right rival, Semi Bird, after a messy conclave that Reichert blasted as "dishonest" and "deceitful."

Bird went on to take a distant third place in August's top-two primary, and major donors remain angry with the state party for endorsing him in the first place. The Evergreen State GOP had just $76,000 in the bank at the end of August, which Brunner noted was less than 2% of what the state Democratic Party had in its coffers.

"That division is showing up on the balance sheet," King County GOP chair Mathew Patrick Thomas told Brunner last month, adding that "some donors are sitting on their wallets." And with the clock running out, so is the RGA.

The Downballot Podcast

A big vote on Puerto Rico statehood is coming up

Here's a big election on Nov. 5 you won't want to sleep on: Puerto Rico, a territory home to 3.2 million U.S. citizens, is holding a plebiscite on the question of statehood. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain the vote—and the 126 years of colonial history leading up to it—is George Laws Garcia, executive director of the Puerto Rico Statehood Council. Laws Garcia details the huge disadvantages Puerto Ricans face due to the island's current status and says they point to a victory for statehood. And should it become a state, he intriguingly tells us why he thinks Puerto Rico would defy conventional wisdom and wind up a swing state.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the House battlefield, which remains very small but, inch by inch, is growing—most notably in South Texas, where Democrats are making a play for a heavily Latino, GOP-trending district that they left by the wayside last cycle. Then the Davids dissect a strange poll from a strange candidate in a swingy House race before checking back in on Indiana, where both Democrats and Republicans are suddenly treating the open governor's race like it's genuinely competitive.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Subscribe right here to make sure you never miss an episode!

3Q Fundraising

• NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): $12.1 million raised, $4.8 million cash on hand

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc): $3.7 million raised, $7 million cash on hand

• AZ-01: Amish Shah (D): $3.45 million raised

• CA-13: Adam Gray (D): $2.2 million raised

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D): $2.1 million raised

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D): $2.8 million raised

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D): $3.6 million raised

• CA-45: Michelle Steel (R-inc): $2.6 million raised, $3.7 million cash on hand; Derek Tran (D): $2 million raised

• CA-47: Dave Min (D): $2 million raised

House

MI-08

Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet picked up the support of the Michigan Fraternal Order of Police this week, a potentially valuable endorsement at a time when it's become rare for police unions to back Democrats in competitive races. McDonald Rivet faces Republican Paul Junge in the contest for the swingy 8th District, which is held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee.

Voting Rights & Election Law

New York

On Tuesday, a New York judge ruled against a new law to move elections for county and town governments from odd-numbered to even-numbered years. Spectrum News says that the state is "expected" to appeal this decision.

The law, which the Democratic state legislature passed last year, would impact races for county executive and county legislature, as well as for similar posts at the town level. 

It does not, however, cover races in New York City, where Mayor Eric Adams is up for reelection next year, or many other local races. That's because the state constitution determines the timing of elections in municipalities that are classified as cities or villages. It also governs the calendar for many county-level posts, such as district attorney, sheriff, and county clerk.

Despite this considerable carve-out, however, Judge Gerard Neri concluded in a 22-page opinion that the bill still violated the state constitution. He also agreed with plaintiffs that, since some local races would still take place in odd years, the law would confuse voters.

Democratic state Sen. James Skoufis, who cosponsored the bill, sees things differently.

"[T]he plaintiffs continue to waste local tax dollars on their senseless crusade to preserve lower turnout in elections," said Skoufis, who has highlighted low voter participation in odd years is why this bill is so vital.

Obituaries

Tim Johnson

Former Sen. Tim Johnson, who is the last Democrat to represent South Dakota in the Senate, died Tuesday at the age of 77.

Johnson, who was first elected in 1986 to the state's at-large House seat, won a promotion to the upper chamber 10 years later by unseating Republican Sen. Larry Pressler 51-49 even as Bob Dole was carrying South Dakota against President Bill Clinton.

Johnson faced an even tougher battle six years later against Rep. John Thune, who succeeded him in the House. The incumbent prevailed by all of 524 votes, though Thune returned two years later to beat the state's other Democratic senator, Minority Leader Tom Daschle.

Johnson decisively won his third and final term in 2008 two years after suffering an almost fatal brain hemorrhage. However, conservative South Dakota's further drift to the right made the prospect of winning a fourth term against former Gov. Mike Rounds dubious, and Johnson retired ahead of the 2014 red wave.

You can find much more on Johnson's long career in Don Jorgensen's obituary for KELO.

Poll Pile

• MD-Sen: University of Maryland-Baltimore County: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 48, Larry Hogan (R): 39 (57-35 Harris) 

• MI-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Elissa Slotkin (D): 48, Mike Rogers (R): 48 (50-47 Trump) (mid-Sept.: 51-46 Slotkin)

• PA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Bob Casey (D-inc): 51, Dave McCormick (R): 43 (49-46 Harris) (mid-Sept.: 52-43 Casey)

• WI-Sen: Quinnipiac: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 46 (48-46 Trump) (mid-Sept.: 51-47 Baldwin)

• NE-02: Change Research (D) for Future Majority: Tony Vargas (D): 49, Don Bacon (R-inc): 41 (Aug.: 48-43 Vargas)

• PA-07: Change (D): Susan Wild (D-inc): 47, Ryan McKenzie (R): 43 (Aug.: 47-43 Wild)

• PA-10: Susquehanna Polling (R): Janelle Stelson (D): 48, Scott Perry (R-inc): 39 (46-41 Harris)

• PA-17: Change (D): Chris DeLuzio (D-inc): 46, Rob Mercuri (R): 42 (Aug.: 48-40 DeLuzio)

• WI-01: DCCC Analytics (D): Bryan Steil (R-inc): 49, Peter Barca (D): 46 (49-49 presidential tie)

• FL Ballot: Siena College for the New York Times: Abortion amendment: Yes: 46, No: 38 (note: needs 60% to pass) (53-40 Trump)

• MD Ballot: UMBC: Abortion amendment: Yes: 69, No: 21

Note that the Change Research House polls conducted for Future Majority were in the field Sept. 16-23. Given how close we are to Election Day, we have a strong preference for more recent polls. Generally speaking, unless we flag them, all surveys in our Poll Pile were conducted in the last couple of weeks.

Ad Roundup

• MT-Sen: American Crossroads - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• NE-Sen-A: Deb Fischer (R-inc) - anti-Dan Osborn (I); ESAFund - anti-Osborn (part of $2 million buy)

• NJ-Sen: Andy Kim (D)

• PA-Sen: Win Senate (Senate Majority PAC affiliate) -  anti- Dave McCormick (R) 

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) and the DSCC - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• NH-Gov: Joyce Craig (D); New Hampshire Democratic Party - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)

• AZ-06: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D) - anti-Mike Garcia (R-inc)

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D)

• CA-45: Fairshake PAC - pro-Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-inc) - anti-George Logan (R)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc) - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• MI-03: Paul Hudson (R) - anti-Hillary Scholten (D-inc)

• MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

• MI-10: John James (R-inc) - anti-Carl Marlinga (D) (here and here);  CLF - Marlinga

• NE-02: CLF - anti-Tony Vargas (D)

• NY-01: John Avlon (D) - anti-Nick LaLota (R-inc)

• NY-19: CLF - anti-Josh Riley (D)

• NY-22: John Mannion (D) - anti-Brandon Williams (R-inc)

• OH-09: CLF - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• FL Ballot: Vote No On 3 - anti-marijuana amendment (in English and Spanish)

• OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment

• MI Supreme Court: Justice for All - pro-Kyra Harris Bolden (D-inc) & Kimberly Ann Thomas (D)/anti-Andrew Fink (R) & Patrick William O'Grady (R)

Editor’s note: In the previous Morning Digest, we incorrectly stated that Oklahoma Supreme Court justices run for retention in one of nine judicial districts rather than statewide. While they are selected to represent a judicial district, all voters statewide decide whether to retain them.