This comment actually inspired me to ask a broader question for posters here: who was/were the most unexpected politician victories or upsets you remember? Could be primary or general, Dem or GOP or third-party, etc.
Which may still be resonating in Virginia politics: it’s not clear if Abigail Spanberger would have challenged Cantor, or that she would have won if she had even with the 2018 wave.
Brat meanwhile at least merits mention as one of the most appropriately named politicians of recent years, and, to be clear, not in a good way. (I mean “brat” in the old fashioned sense of the word, not the recent favourable way that was applied to Kamala Harris last year.)
I’m not sure I would classify Jim Webb’s victory in 2006 as an upset. Many polls leading up to the election showed Webb either tied with or ahead of George Allen.
That election can be summed up by one word: Macaca. Allen doesn't say it, Webb never wins. Turnout in the Democratic primary for that Senate election was at THREE per cent.
AOC is one of my favorites, but there was also a lot of Republican driftwood washed in in wave years like 2010 and 2014. I'm blanking on the name of the totally unqualified guy who won 1 term in Texas. Something German, I believe.
In terms of federal, the victories that surprised me the most in a good way were Jon Ossoff and Rev Warnock winning the 2021 runoff elections in Georgia. I thought maybe one or the other would win but it was so gratifying to see them both prevail.
And as for state? I was thrilled that SCONC justice Allison Riggs won reelection (thanks in part to Anderson Clayton’s massive ballot curing efforts) and prevailed in court.
DownBallot Hi, I became a paid subscriber last year, right when you kicked off your outstanding newsletter. Will my subscription automatically renew via my credit card? Thanks for all that you do and write. Larry Bogolub
Exactly but the online left-liberals won't get it. Do they expect part time legislators who are severely underpaid to camp in Chicago for months w/o their families?
I basically agree and am pissed as everyone else but seriously, what would you do? These legislators were facing unprecedented pressure and outright threats to their lives and livelihoods, were they to be fugitives for months on end? I truly don’t intend snark or bad faith with this comment, I have lived for progressive politics since I was a teen (now a 37 year old man) but my faith in our system has been really shaken to its core since Nov 2024 and especially the murders of the MN DFL members this year. It’s really easy for us to complain on these comment threads but can we truly expect this level of stoicism from part time citizen legislators when it seems pretty clear these MAGA maniacs were going to do whatever it takes to make this happen?
I agree wholeheartedly. I have stopped giving any money to national organizations since last year until they start spending it smartly. But it does sound like shame on both of us because I didn’t give any money to Gabriel Wu or any of the other legislators when this started and that’s when we probably should have. Also, I ask of you or anybody else on this thread whether they are an elected official or plan on running for anything in the near future? These legislators are human and probably feel the same level of disgust and fear I get everyday when I wake up and read the latest outrage and it paralyzes me.
I didn't give them any money because I didn't trust them not to surrender, as they have. And I will not run for office. I am not tactful enough or willing to kiss rich peoples' asses, and I also can't function regularly in the early morning.
We're so addicted to losing lmao. They accomplished literally nothing. It was a failure and treating it as anything other than that is exhibit A of why Republicans are steamrolling 60 years of progress in a year while Dems made incremental changes in the last 12 years of WH control. Until we demand the bare fucking minimum from our politicians we will continue to lose and Republicans will continue to consolidate their own power.
Congrats! David, Jeff & Co, you guys are the best. Your Morning Digest is a treasured morning read, and your various and sundry guides offer the best deep dive into election-related data anywhere.
In these troubled times, your Special Elections Tracker is especially encouraging!
So that I don't spam the entire comment board, let me say thank you so much to everyone offering their congrats today! As I said in the post above, this literally wouldn't be possible without you. Yeah, shit's pretty fucked in our nation right now, but this is precisely why we fight, and I'm humbled that we get to play our part.
Yay! 🎉 Happy for you all here at The Downballot on this day of celebration. I’ve been part of this community for almost 15 years, and I haven’t found any other place with better analysis or content. You all are truly talented and have cultivated a great community here.
Right, the anecdotal reports actually carry more weight because comparing a Presidential general election to a mayoral primary is very much apples and oranges.
Using AOC's 2024 performance vs Harris in NY-14, we can get a rough estimate on what is plausible. Looks to be about 4 percentage points of them going to AOC. Let's call it 5 points optimistically.
With ~1/3 of the district voting for him, we'd have ~5/33 = 15% of them crossing the aisle.
This doesn't sound absurd on its face, as while an overwhelming percentage of the electorate is inflexible in which party it will vote for (if they vote at all), there's still a large chunk that can go for either party. If we split the full electorate into thirds for this, it would suggest AOC was able to get an extra ~half of the persuadable, "flexible", voters that opted for the republican for president but were willing to vote for dems for other offices. Presumably people that are anti-establishment first and foremost, limited/zero partisanship, left ideology.
I'd expect that's around the upper bounds of what Mamdani can hope for on that front. Unfortunately since the general election is looking to split the coalitions in lots of directions this one will not be easy for us to draw these kinds of conclusions from, good or bad.
Not totally sure crossing the aisle is correct here - the perception is that these were former Biden (or Obama) voters who switched to Trump, so if anything they are just returning home within the Democratic Primary. Full on double or triple Trump voters crossing over is probably low.
Regardless of the exact reasoning and history, the phrasing was meant to point out that they crossed the aisle in 2024 by voting for candidates from both parties. I guess I didn't word that well. I agree with your assessment of what many of them would fit, for what it's worth.
AOC represents an exceedingly disengaged district. It's the second lowest turnout district in the state and one of the lowest in the country. I'm not sure that extrapolating the math there works too well. Also, AOC doing slightly better in her district than Harris did could be because she's well known there, it could be because of the general percentage of people who don't think a woman should be President, etc.
Thanks! Certainly has a unique profile. I'm kind of becoming endeared to Jordan Wood though, he has more balls then everyone and their mother who's running for Governor.
Congratulations on your first year on Substack! I’ve been lurking since the DKE days, and your analyses of politics down the ticket are valuable and in-depth. Thanks for all the hard work!
For any of you who are not aware, back in 2024 Rep. Mike Flood ran for re-election and defeated a Democratic challenger by 20% points whose last name rhymes exactly like his. The one difference between both last names is that one which starts with “F” and the other that starts with “B.”
The 2024 Democratic challenger was Carol Blood.
I can’t recall in recent memory two opposing political candidates running in a race where their last names perfectly rhyme! Would this be a first in political history?
There was a year when Sen. Durbin was challenged by a candidate named Durkin. Not sure if it's a perfect rhyme, but it's similar enough to be noteworthy.
Brad Sherman and Howard Berman were two liberal Democratic Congressmen running against each other in the general election due to redistricting. Sherman ended up winning the election.
Berman and Sherman. On a side note, it's very strange that Sherman's hometown is Sherman Oaks!
If Schumer and co successfully recruited Janet Mills and cleared the way, I was legit going go tune out of Senate politics because a 77 almost 78 year old politician who's been in politics since decades and has a weak approval isn't going to dethrone Susan Collins. The is no winning the Senate without Maine and there is no long term ending the filibuster or other reforms without this seat.
An untested candidate like Mr. Platner may be a risky bet, but some Democratic strategists said that at a moment of deep anti-Washington sentiment, voters are demanding new faces over veteran politicians they view as part of a system that has failed them.
"But Ms. Mills, 77, is being circumspect about her plans for what could be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. And some Maine Democrats believe she is too conventional a choice to defeat Ms. Collins, a powerful political force who has demonstrated her staying power.
Mr. Platner said he was recruited by political organizers who were worried that “there was going to be a bad decision made for this race, and they went looking around this state for someone. I am terrified that the Democrats are going to squander what could otherwise be a spectacular opportunity.” "
I don't care how old someone who's able to beat Collins is. She's been an extremely tenacious survivor, and the short-term imperative of defeating her is much more important than any long-term planning. Once she's out of the Senate, if Maine stays about the same politically, it's unlikely that another Republican would win the seat back. They haven't won the other seat back since Cohen retired!
I agree Dems are likely to hold it for a long time going forward, so dislodging Collins is what matters most.
However, Cohen's former seat is the one now occupied by Collins. The other seat is Angus King, who succeeded Olympia Snowe, who succeeded Democrat George Mitchell (so it went D>R>I/D). But I don't see them getting King's/Snowe's seat back either. Similar situation to New Hampshire, where moderate Republicans have been replaced by Democrats and are unlikely to revert back unless the Republicans become moderates again.
There’s two other Democrats who’ve actually run races before in, though, between Woods and Frey. I really don’t know that we need Mills, and I’m unconvinced “some dude oyster farmer” is formidable enough
Maybe Maine voters want a fresh face like Platner (I feel he's got a similar folksy charm that Roy Cooper has in NC) or they want a proven fighter against Trump (which Mills fit the bill).
Whichever candidate makes it to the GE, I hope they get rid of Susan Collins next year.
This comment actually inspired me to ask a broader question for posters here: who was/were the most unexpected politician victories or upsets you remember? Could be primary or general, Dem or GOP or third-party, etc.
The truest wave baby in many a year
Which may still be resonating in Virginia politics: it’s not clear if Abigail Spanberger would have challenged Cantor, or that she would have won if she had even with the 2018 wave.
Brat meanwhile at least merits mention as one of the most appropriately named politicians of recent years, and, to be clear, not in a good way. (I mean “brat” in the old fashioned sense of the word, not the recent favourable way that was applied to Kamala Harris last year.)
Unexpected wins that jump to my mind:
Dave Brat beating Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary.
Jim Webb beating George Alan in the 2006 general election.
Sweeney losing reelection to Durr in 2021. Durr spent under $3000 total.
Not as surprising as the above three, but Heidi Heitkamp's 2012 win was a very pleasant surprise.
I don't remember what the expectations were from most people, but I know I was surprised at Obama winning the 2008 Iowa caucus.
I’m not sure I would classify Jim Webb’s victory in 2006 as an upset. Many polls leading up to the election showed Webb either tied with or ahead of George Allen.
That election can be summed up by one word: Macaca. Allen doesn't say it, Webb never wins. Turnout in the Democratic primary for that Senate election was at THREE per cent.
It was a narrow loss, but Adam Frisch.
AOC is one of my favorites, but there was also a lot of Republican driftwood washed in in wave years like 2010 and 2014. I'm blanking on the name of the totally unqualified guy who won 1 term in Texas. Something German, I believe.
Farenthold?
He won several terms, because the GOP gerrymandered his district ahead of 2012.
Yes.
In terms of federal, the victories that surprised me the most in a good way were Jon Ossoff and Rev Warnock winning the 2021 runoff elections in Georgia. I thought maybe one or the other would win but it was so gratifying to see them both prevail.
And as for state? I was thrilled that SCONC justice Allison Riggs won reelection (thanks in part to Anderson Clayton’s massive ballot curing efforts) and prevailed in court.
probably recency bias but I was shocked Zohran won
You're right, but it's possible to be depressed and sure the U. S. is in an irreversible eclipse and still fight hard.
DownBallot Hi, I became a paid subscriber last year, right when you kicked off your outstanding newsletter. Will my subscription automatically renew via my credit card? Thanks for all that you do and write. Larry Bogolub
Yes, as long as you didn't cancel the subscription it will renew.
Thank you so much, Larry! That really means a ton. And yes, as Frank notes below, it should renew automatically. If your credit card information has changed, though, you'll want to update it. Just check out this short guide: https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/22455880369044-How-do-I-update-my-payment-information-on-Substack
The tx walkout gave ca time to develop a response AND offer to bank down if tx did. The walkout was powerful and effective.
Exactly but the online left-liberals won't get it. Do they expect part time legislators who are severely underpaid to camp in Chicago for months w/o their families?
Yes. And I would have sent a check if they had continued.
I basically agree and am pissed as everyone else but seriously, what would you do? These legislators were facing unprecedented pressure and outright threats to their lives and livelihoods, were they to be fugitives for months on end? I truly don’t intend snark or bad faith with this comment, I have lived for progressive politics since I was a teen (now a 37 year old man) but my faith in our system has been really shaken to its core since Nov 2024 and especially the murders of the MN DFL members this year. It’s really easy for us to complain on these comment threads but can we truly expect this level of stoicism from part time citizen legislators when it seems pretty clear these MAGA maniacs were going to do whatever it takes to make this happen?
All of us constantly get begging from organizations and candidates. Why couldn't the upkeep of all these legislators be covered instead?
I agree wholeheartedly. I have stopped giving any money to national organizations since last year until they start spending it smartly. But it does sound like shame on both of us because I didn’t give any money to Gabriel Wu or any of the other legislators when this started and that’s when we probably should have. Also, I ask of you or anybody else on this thread whether they are an elected official or plan on running for anything in the near future? These legislators are human and probably feel the same level of disgust and fear I get everyday when I wake up and read the latest outrage and it paralyzes me.
I didn't give them any money because I didn't trust them not to surrender, as they have. And I will not run for office. I am not tactful enough or willing to kiss rich peoples' asses, and I also can't function regularly in the early morning.
We're so addicted to losing lmao. They accomplished literally nothing. It was a failure and treating it as anything other than that is exhibit A of why Republicans are steamrolling 60 years of progress in a year while Dems made incremental changes in the last 12 years of WH control. Until we demand the bare fucking minimum from our politicians we will continue to lose and Republicans will continue to consolidate their own power.
Congrats! David, Jeff & Co, you guys are the best. Your Morning Digest is a treasured morning read, and your various and sundry guides offer the best deep dive into election-related data anywhere.
In these troubled times, your Special Elections Tracker is especially encouraging!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/edit?gid=415249345#gid=415249345
So that I don't spam the entire comment board, let me say thank you so much to everyone offering their congrats today! As I said in the post above, this literally wouldn't be possible without you. Yeah, shit's pretty fucked in our nation right now, but this is precisely why we fight, and I'm humbled that we get to play our part.
Yay! 🎉 Happy for you all here at The Downballot on this day of celebration. I’ve been part of this community for almost 15 years, and I haven’t found any other place with better analysis or content. You all are truly talented and have cultivated a great community here.
Congratulations on a successful first year!
As a public servant you never want to be in the news for a secret helicopter.
ME-Sen
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/us/politics/maine-senate-candidate-collins.html
What rookie mistakes is this guy making?
How many Trump/Mamdani votes do we actually think there were?
Right, the anecdotal reports actually carry more weight because comparing a Presidential general election to a mayoral primary is very much apples and oranges.
Trump districts voting for Mamdani is irrelevant since they were Democratic primary voters?
Using AOC's 2024 performance vs Harris in NY-14, we can get a rough estimate on what is plausible. Looks to be about 4 percentage points of them going to AOC. Let's call it 5 points optimistically.
With ~1/3 of the district voting for him, we'd have ~5/33 = 15% of them crossing the aisle.
This doesn't sound absurd on its face, as while an overwhelming percentage of the electorate is inflexible in which party it will vote for (if they vote at all), there's still a large chunk that can go for either party. If we split the full electorate into thirds for this, it would suggest AOC was able to get an extra ~half of the persuadable, "flexible", voters that opted for the republican for president but were willing to vote for dems for other offices. Presumably people that are anti-establishment first and foremost, limited/zero partisanship, left ideology.
I'd expect that's around the upper bounds of what Mamdani can hope for on that front. Unfortunately since the general election is looking to split the coalitions in lots of directions this one will not be easy for us to draw these kinds of conclusions from, good or bad.
Not totally sure crossing the aisle is correct here - the perception is that these were former Biden (or Obama) voters who switched to Trump, so if anything they are just returning home within the Democratic Primary. Full on double or triple Trump voters crossing over is probably low.
Regardless of the exact reasoning and history, the phrasing was meant to point out that they crossed the aisle in 2024 by voting for candidates from both parties. I guess I didn't word that well. I agree with your assessment of what many of them would fit, for what it's worth.
AOC represents an exceedingly disengaged district. It's the second lowest turnout district in the state and one of the lowest in the country. I'm not sure that extrapolating the math there works too well. Also, AOC doing slightly better in her district than Harris did could be because she's well known there, it could be because of the general percentage of people who don't think a woman should be President, etc.
What percentage of the district's residents are non-citizens?
I don't think it's that hard to imagine a Trump / Mamdani voter. Relatively low information but tuned into social media / TikTok....
Democrats have to make sure not to attack each other, as Collins is a very tough out!
This one is interesting. I like the background, let’s see how the campaign goes
paywall, who's it about?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=53bZ_95nDjk Here’s his launch video
Thanks! Certainly has a unique profile. I'm kind of becoming endeared to Jordan Wood though, he has more balls then everyone and their mother who's running for Governor.
He does lay out the issues clearly.
https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3lwqspxh3uk23
Oh, I like him. Great intro video!
Congratulations on your first year on Substack! I’ve been lurking since the DKE days, and your analyses of politics down the ticket are valuable and in-depth. Thanks for all the hard work!
Congrats on hitting one year! Love the weekly podcast as well.
NE-01:
For any of you who are not aware, back in 2024 Rep. Mike Flood ran for re-election and defeated a Democratic challenger by 20% points whose last name rhymes exactly like his. The one difference between both last names is that one which starts with “F” and the other that starts with “B.”
The 2024 Democratic challenger was Carol Blood.
I can’t recall in recent memory two opposing political candidates running in a race where their last names perfectly rhyme! Would this be a first in political history?
In 2010, when Jon Paul Smith (D) ran against Barry Lee Smith (R) for Arkansas State House, District 100, the rhyme was perfect.
Technically, I'd argue a word does not rhyme with itself. ;)
Tell that to the Beastie Boys! https://www.reddit.com/r/BeastieBoys/comments/1djgz99/everybody_rappin_like_its_a_commercial_acting/
Perhaps but Smith and Smith in fact the same exact names so they do naturally rhyme for obvious reasons.
There was that race in 2018 where Ron Estes ran against Ron Estes in the KS-4 Republican primary.
And Ron Estes has been serving in KS-04 since then!
Ron Estes vs. another Ron Estes in the same damn GOP primary. That didn't stop Rep. Estes from winning the primary by 81% points. hahaha
Steve Laffey against Lincoln Chaffee in the 2006 Republican primary for RI-SEN.
The last name Laffey in this case is pronounced the exact same way as Chaffee?
There was a year when Sen. Durbin was challenged by a candidate named Durkin. Not sure if it's a perfect rhyme, but it's similar enough to be noteworthy.
Didn’t Bob Casey also run against Bob Casey sometime in the 70s for PA race?
Does Mark Warner vs. John Warner count? :-P
Yes.
And particularly important to count it considering Mark Warner replaced the late John Warner as Senator back in 2009!
I just realized another race back in 2012:
Brad Sherman and Howard Berman were two liberal Democratic Congressmen running against each other in the general election due to redistricting. Sherman ended up winning the election.
Berman and Sherman. On a side note, it's very strange that Sherman's hometown is Sherman Oaks!
CONGRATULATIONS
Shares via LinkedIn that computer science educator Karl Morris has entered the race for PA-03
Congrats to y'all! The Downballot has been such a clear, informative, and refreshingly unopinionated newsletter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/us/politics/maine-senate-candidate-collins.html
https://archive.ph/B8abn
https://x.com/grahamformaine/status/1957780836062826868
https://www.grahamforsenate.com/platform
If Schumer and co successfully recruited Janet Mills and cleared the way, I was legit going go tune out of Senate politics because a 77 almost 78 year old politician who's been in politics since decades and has a weak approval isn't going to dethrone Susan Collins. The is no winning the Senate without Maine and there is no long term ending the filibuster or other reforms without this seat.
An untested candidate like Mr. Platner may be a risky bet, but some Democratic strategists said that at a moment of deep anti-Washington sentiment, voters are demanding new faces over veteran politicians they view as part of a system that has failed them.
"But Ms. Mills, 77, is being circumspect about her plans for what could be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. And some Maine Democrats believe she is too conventional a choice to defeat Ms. Collins, a powerful political force who has demonstrated her staying power.
Mr. Platner said he was recruited by political organizers who were worried that “there was going to be a bad decision made for this race, and they went looking around this state for someone. I am terrified that the Democrats are going to squander what could otherwise be a spectacular opportunity.” "
I don't care how old someone who's able to beat Collins is. She's been an extremely tenacious survivor, and the short-term imperative of defeating her is much more important than any long-term planning. Once she's out of the Senate, if Maine stays about the same politically, it's unlikely that another Republican would win the seat back. They haven't won the other seat back since Cohen retired!
I agree Dems are likely to hold it for a long time going forward, so dislodging Collins is what matters most.
However, Cohen's former seat is the one now occupied by Collins. The other seat is Angus King, who succeeded Olympia Snowe, who succeeded Democrat George Mitchell (so it went D>R>I/D). But I don't see them getting King's/Snowe's seat back either. Similar situation to New Hampshire, where moderate Republicans have been replaced by Democrats and are unlikely to revert back unless the Republicans become moderates again.
Republican Senator Olympia Snowe faced a hard right primary challenger in 2012 and retired soon after.
Right now, it's about winning the seat.
I repeat again, WIN the seat.
Nuff said. ;)
There’s two other Democrats who’ve actually run races before in, though, between Woods and Frey. I really don’t know that we need Mills, and I’m unconvinced “some dude oyster farmer” is formidable enough
Maybe Maine voters want a fresh face like Platner (I feel he's got a similar folksy charm that Roy Cooper has in NC) or they want a proven fighter against Trump (which Mills fit the bill).
Whichever candidate makes it to the GE, I hope they get rid of Susan Collins next year.
If Platner's candidacy causes me to get fewer texts from Jordan Wood, I'm all for him.