Buttigieg should be hitting up Black districts and doing town halls so that they get to know him. And what happens if prominent Black politicians like James Clyburn endorse him?
I don't see why that would be unpopular. Politicians have had very little sway with their endorsements for years now. In 2020 was one of the only times in memory that an endorsement mattered. It would also be simply shocking for a Clyburn endorsement to matter in NY. 98% of primary voters in NY probably don't know who he is.
I think Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama in 2008 was pivotal as well.
I'd argue most of the time endorsements are less impactful for voters and more impactful for donors. They can play a big part in legitimizing a candidate and boosting them if the candidate was not yet seen as a credible/probable winner before hand.
It was a big attention getting endorsement that reinforced the ground gained by Obama's early state wins (winning 3 of the 4). Considering that the primary was a narrow but consistent Obama win it doesn't take much to change the outcome in alternate timelines.
America was more enamored with political lineages then and the Kennedy family was up there with establishment credentials, along with the Bush family.
I think there are two people who could significantly affect a Dem POTUS primary and they both have the last name Obama. Maybeeee some popular pols in individual states like Murphy in Connecticut but in terms of the actual overall outcome I don't think anyone besides the Obamas can actually swing a primary race.
True-but this poll also has implications for say-a hypothetical primary to Fetterman, for instance-we can't run a gay candidate and expect to beat Fetterman in the primary,
Don't want to get into forbidden territory but a) Polls this early are toilet paper and b) Beyond his SO Buttigieg is literally the "whitest" candidate listed in terms of style and demeanor-he's straight out of a 1950s sitcom. He wouldn't be scoring big with the AA vote regardless IMO.
Always lovely when a Democratic governor sides with Republicans against labor and affordable housing. I guess Lamont is trying to be the Jared Polis of the east.
I must confess that I don’t understand Governor Lamont’s reasoning for vetoing these two bills. Unfortunately, the very first link in today’s diary – to CTInsider – is paywalled, so I’m none the wiser. Grateful if someone could share their insights.
The reasoning is the GOP reasoning and it's false. They want to hold up housing in the name of local control for rich white lobbyists. Even NIMBY environmentalists are supporting the bills. He was actively involved in the process of crafting and backing the bill but now seems to have gotten scared. Jake Auchincloss should move to Connecticut and primary him. (/s)
Credit where credit is due: Polis is anti labor and anti consumer but he is very pro housing and pushed a great YIMBY bill and signed it. I've criticized Polis in the past but he is good in issues like housing and permitting.
Lamont likely would have coasted to the Senate election if Lieberman didn’t run in the general election as an Independent.
If I remember correctly, Lieberman had enough base support + support from Independents and Republicans in the state. This may have been enough for him to get past the finish line. Lamont by contrast may have not been able to built up enough support to win.
We know he didn't build up enough support to win. We don't have to guess about that. And naturally, Lamont would have beaten the weak Republican if he had been the only other option.
My mother, a Connecticut voter, was already upset with Lamont even before he vetoed these bills. She certainly won't be voting for him in the primary next year.
Apparently, the environmental community in Connecticut is trying to get former state DEEP Commissioner Daniel Esty to run for Governor. But if he doesn't run, then Elliott seems like a good guy who would definitely be better than Lamont. We definitely need someone who isn't from Stamford or Greenwich (Elliott is from Hamden, a large, diverse suburban town just north of New Haven).
Beyond all the obvious critiques and annoyances though: how horribly is he misreading the moment? Democratic voters are increasingly unhappy with this kind of approach to politics from our leaders.
Ignore if you agree with him or not. From a purely selfish perspective of advancing his career, this increasingly looks unwise.
SC-Gov: I'll always remember Andre Bauer for comparing providing assistance to the poor to "feeding stray animals" and that you shouldn't do it because "they breed". He later said he regretted saying it but fuck him.
Jared Golden is losing a small but significant number of Democratic-leaning voters to the third-party option, which essentially accounts for his margin of loss in poll against LePage. Additionally, Democrats in his district do not view him favorably while most Republicans and Independents view LePage favorably.
This is perhaps the only house election where either result wouldn't make much of a difference. He is the poster Democratic scold for right wing media.
There is no way in hell Paul LePage is going to beat Jared Golden. Mainers are so done with LePage; they showed that when Janet Mills humiliated his comeback effort by beating him by 13 points!
While Dems in ME-02 may view Golden unfavorable because of his occasional Republican-leaning votes in the House, we will definitely vote for Golden when the alternative is sending LePage to DC.
Such vindictive thoughts are not really helpful. It’s just as unstrategic as wishing to see Joe Manchin go down in flames in West Virginia. Fact is we need a Democrat in ME-02 to have a good hope of flipping the House – and Jared Golden is the best we can do in this bright-Red district.
Word is they're going to try to get two more seats out of the RGV and get rid of Sylvia Garcia's seat, I think they can maybe get one more seat out of the RGV. The maximalist approach is really risky.
I think it’s also possible they make TX-07 and TX-32 swing seats. Making them outright red would be tough without endangering neighboring seats like 03, 22, 24, 38.
You are a Mainer, right? Would definitely defer to your feel on this.
However, even in his humiliating double digit defeat, LePage still carried the district by a small margin. So I wouldn’t completely rule out his chance against Golden.
I could very well be wrong and tainted by wishful thinking. There are times when I fail to totally realize how Red it is in our Congressional district. Our own town (false advertising, it’s really only a hamlet but nobody uses that word) is split pretty much down the middle.
Also, I’m not a native Mainer; my wife and I have been here for roughly twelve years. There are numerous Mainers on DB whose knowledge and feel are far better than mine.
Everyone should remember what Republicans do with control of all 3 branches of government and act accordingly when we get control of the legislature and the executive the next time.
Isn't there any way that NY Dems can gerrymander the house? What if they redistrict just in time for the elections when the NY SC is not able to strike it down?
The PP case gives the green light to any state that wants to bar PP from being a provider of Medicaid services in that state. It will be state by state but the ruling is that neither the provider (eg. PP) nor the patient has standing to sue.
I think the birthright decision allowed nationwide injunctions in class action cases.
Democrats Allred, Castro, O’Rourke, Talarico meet to discuss 2026 options.
Four of Texas’ leading Democrats met last month to sort out which of them is the best choice to run for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn and to potentially develop a slate that would contend for other statewide offices
O'Rourke needs to run for Mayor of El Paso if he wants to be in elected officie. His days as a statewide candidate, at least for the foreseeable future, are behind him.
Yeah he's only 52. If he wants to do something else for a decade then take a last crack at the Governorship or Senate he can do so in what will probably be a more hospitable environment, especially if he spends a good chunk of that time doing something everyone likes such as running a homelessness nonprofit or whatever.
I agree with this. Beto "Damn right we’re coming for your guns" O’Rourke is damaged goods, electorally speaking, at least to a prominent statewide Texas office.
I agree that he would not win but I think his being on the ballot (and campaigning as he did before) can goose turnout for the others. How about for railroad commissioner?
I think convincing someone who ran for President and was, for a portion of that race, one of the leading candidates to run for Railroad commissioner is a tough sell. Maybe Lieutenant Governor, but even that seems unlikely.
At least Castro hasn't lost statewide twice and we don't know how he'd perform in a competitive general election. He's a relatively talented politician and I think we should run Latino candidates for some seats.
What just happened to Cuomo is a positive step. And now, Lamont may suffer the same fate. IMO, the trick is to bring strong Democratic primary options to hold voters, rather than have them leave for a non-viable third-party candidates. However, the establishment Democrats are quite skilled at stepping on rakes.
7 House Democrats voted for a resolution today that stated in part: "Whereas California’s leadership has prioritized protecting illegal immigrants and violent individuals over United States citizens," including two members of the California delegation.
And before anyone says "oh but they're in vulnerable seats!!", there are several other Dems in just as if not more competitive seats that didn't vote for the resolution.
Of the two Californians Costa has always been problematic (I'm being kind here) while Gray just got elected in 2024 by an under 200 vote margin. Both are in Central Valley seats where the political spectrum is farther to the right than in coastal areas and the biggest cities. I can't stand Jim Costa and would never vote for or donate to him. I don't know Adam Gray as well, but he won't be on my 2026 contributions list. My limited resources will go towards George Whitesides, Derek Tran and David Min (the other three new D House members from CA.)
Costa is also a Blue Dog Democrat and a co-chair of the coalition. In California!
Even if his district is a D+4 Lean Blue (last I checked), a better Democrat can still primary Costa out of office and win as long as the candidate fits the district.
CA-21’s population is 64% Hispanic and Caucasians represent less than 20% of the population.
If Democrats nominated a superior Democratic Congressional Candidate who is Hispanic and has strong appeal in the district, it’s possible he would make it easier for Democrats to hold onto the district (Costa won by single digits or narrow margins in 2010, 2014 and 2024).
Costa’s GOP challenger in 2022, Michael Maher, ran again in 2024 and lost the election by 5.2% points. I think as long as the Democratic Nominee (if not Costa) can beat the GOP well in the general election, then it could work.
That said, if you take into account that part of this district was in the previous CA-21 district that David Valadao represented prior to redistricting, that accounts for why Jim Costa’s margins of victory in the last two elections have been smaller. Prior to redistricting, in most elections Costa was able to win comfortably by double digits (exception being 2014). I don’t think an incumbent like Costa is needed for Democrats to hold CA-21 these days but the district is also not exactly like representing in the Bay Area.
FYI, Costa himself is not actually a bad Democrat. He came out against the Dobbs decision and on plenty of social issues he fits in line with the Democratic Party. His votes as of recently (including the one that is what we are referencing in this thread) may be taking into account the new CA-22 district he represents.
I get that some dems feel the need to make bad votes from time to time so they can get some stupid headlines that justify them as "bipartisan" or "moderate" for the sake of their reelection campaign.
But the frequency of taking those shit votes on the dumbest things that take a buzzsaw to our messaging and party unity and party popularity is astounding. None of them are going to gain a single vote from taking this position. Only Golden in this group is in a particularly dangerous seat for us. The others are all in lightly red seats at worst. All while this is exactly the kind of thing that plays into why many voters think poorly of us.
Can anyone here imagine any republicans in their vulnerable seats voting for a resolution assigning a comparable level of unpatriotic fault to Texas? I cannot. None of them would ever go for it.
It's so stupid and pisses me off. Which is made worse because they'll feel justified in no small part because they *want* to piss off people like me.
Have to say this is dumb even as a strictly CYA political move . . .voters in these districts aren't going to care about a resolution condemning California, and their Republican opponents will paint them as weak on immigration anyway. All so unnecessary.
This is nothing. No policy is being implemented and no actual consequence will come of it. It’s pure performative bs by the Republicans to keep their base frothing at Democrats.
That said, Democrats who barely won in 2024 or who represent Trump districts get a pass for me. Why? Let’s put it this way: If votes like these mean these representatives can win re-election as a vote for a Democratic speaker, by all means keep voting for the stupid crap.
If they choose to vote on things like this in order to feel they have political permission to oppose truly awful legislation that will be made law and actually hurt people, I take that tradeoff every day. I don’t like it, I think the votes are stupid, but try to think of it from a different perspective.
If you absolutely had to choose, which would you pick? Having a Democratic speaker vote win re-election with these stupid votes that doesn’t effect anything or having a Democratic speaker vote without these stupid votes potentially leading to a Republican speaker vote? I know which I’d pick.
But they are voting for lies that are used to justify dictatorial actions against California. This is not the time to enable fascism and authoritarianism, and right now, I think that may be more important than eventual midterm election results, because we can't even be sure the midterm elections will be free and fair countrywide.
Personally I think buying into Republican lies in the name of "bipartisanship" is why we are where we are today. We need to stop playing on their rhetorical battleground and call out performative BS by refusing to engage with it.
Hey now, they had a purpose back during the peak of NYC crime in the 70s and 80s. They're also not illegal because they don't carry weapons and only practice citizen's arrest and hand-to-hand self-defense.
There was always a debate about whether they had a good purpose, but in those bad old days of high crime, the presence of Guardian Angels did have a positive psychological effect on many people, at least.
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
Rs went up more than Ds went down, I'd expect indies to go up on net because the fraction that are basically Rs would move more than the fraction who are basically Ds.
Buttigieg should be hitting up Black districts and doing town halls so that they get to know him. And what happens if prominent Black politicians like James Clyburn endorse him?
In NY? No.
In the Southern states, I think he still has clout.
He never had name-recognition or influence in New York, but what Southern states other than SC has he had influence in?
Unpopular opinion but I don't believe politicians like Clyburn have much political capital left now. Mamdani won the Gen Z and Millennial Black vote.
I don't see why that would be unpopular. Politicians have had very little sway with their endorsements for years now. In 2020 was one of the only times in memory that an endorsement mattered. It would also be simply shocking for a Clyburn endorsement to matter in NY. 98% of primary voters in NY probably don't know who he is.
I think Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama in 2008 was pivotal as well.
I'd argue most of the time endorsements are less impactful for voters and more impactful for donors. They can play a big part in legitimizing a candidate and boosting them if the candidate was not yet seen as a credible/probable winner before hand.
It was pivotal how?
It was a big attention getting endorsement that reinforced the ground gained by Obama's early state wins (winning 3 of the 4). Considering that the primary was a narrow but consistent Obama win it doesn't take much to change the outcome in alternate timelines.
America was more enamored with political lineages then and the Kennedy family was up there with establishment credentials, along with the Bush family.
I think there are two people who could significantly affect a Dem POTUS primary and they both have the last name Obama. Maybeeee some popular pols in individual states like Murphy in Connecticut but in terms of the actual overall outcome I don't think anyone besides the Obamas can actually swing a primary race.
Pretty sure Mandami lost the black vote overall.
I don't think he should bother
Wait I thought Dem presidential primary talk wasn't allowed?
True-but this poll also has implications for say-a hypothetical primary to Fetterman, for instance-we can't run a gay candidate and expect to beat Fetterman in the primary,
That wasn't argued in the post, I don't know if that's a warranted concern specifically in PA, and besides, it's only one poll and it's Emerson.
This is about gay candidates and Black voters not about the primary.
Got it. I withdraw my previous concern.
Correct.
Don't want to get into forbidden territory but a) Polls this early are toilet paper and b) Beyond his SO Buttigieg is literally the "whitest" candidate listed in terms of style and demeanor-he's straight out of a 1950s sitcom. He wouldn't be scoring big with the AA vote regardless IMO.
I think you should delete this as I have.
Wasn't that the same pollster who's poll the Cuomo campaign released in response to the Emerson poll last week? The one showing Cuomo way up.
Always lovely when a Democratic governor sides with Republicans against labor and affordable housing. I guess Lamont is trying to be the Jared Polis of the east.
I must confess that I don’t understand Governor Lamont’s reasoning for vetoing these two bills. Unfortunately, the very first link in today’s diary – to CTInsider – is paywalled, so I’m none the wiser. Grateful if someone could share their insights.
The reasoning is the GOP reasoning and it's false. They want to hold up housing in the name of local control for rich white lobbyists. Even NIMBY environmentalists are supporting the bills. He was actively involved in the process of crafting and backing the bill but now seems to have gotten scared. Jake Auchincloss should move to Connecticut and primary him. (/s)
Credit where credit is due: Polis is anti labor and anti consumer but he is very pro housing and pushed a great YIMBY bill and signed it. I've criticized Polis in the past but he is good in issues like housing and permitting.
never should have been given governor's office as consolation prize for failing to beat lieberman
I don't think that happened. He was elected.
Lamont likely would have coasted to the Senate election if Lieberman didn’t run in the general election as an Independent.
If I remember correctly, Lieberman had enough base support + support from Independents and Republicans in the state. This may have been enough for him to get past the finish line. Lamont by contrast may have not been able to built up enough support to win.
We know he didn't build up enough support to win. We don't have to guess about that. And naturally, Lamont would have beaten the weak Republican if he had been the only other option.
Ironic if Lamont turns into another Lieberman
Yep, very ironic. I hope he is primaried out for this crap.
My mother, a Connecticut voter, was already upset with Lamont even before he vetoed these bills. She certainly won't be voting for him in the primary next year.
Apparently, the environmental community in Connecticut is trying to get former state DEEP Commissioner Daniel Esty to run for Governor. But if he doesn't run, then Elliott seems like a good guy who would definitely be better than Lamont. We definitely need someone who isn't from Stamford or Greenwich (Elliott is from Hamden, a large, diverse suburban town just north of New Haven).
There's a lot to say on Lamont here.
Beyond all the obvious critiques and annoyances though: how horribly is he misreading the moment? Democratic voters are increasingly unhappy with this kind of approach to politics from our leaders.
Ignore if you agree with him or not. From a purely selfish perspective of advancing his career, this increasingly looks unwise.
SC-Gov: I'll always remember Andre Bauer for comparing providing assistance to the poor to "feeding stray animals" and that you shouldn't do it because "they breed". He later said he regretted saying it but fuck him.
https://www.politico.com/story/2010/01/sc-lt-gov-poor-like-stray-animals-031959
"He later said he regretted saying it but fuck him."
I really don’t think you want to do that. There’s a high risk Bauer might breed!
/s
Difficult for two men to do that but god knows I'll keep trying!
scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1878&context=survey_center_polls
Jared Golden is losing a small but significant number of Democratic-leaning voters to the third-party option, which essentially accounts for his margin of loss in poll against LePage. Additionally, Democrats in his district do not view him favorably while most Republicans and Independents view LePage favorably.
This is perhaps the only house election where either result wouldn't make much of a difference. He is the poster Democratic scold for right wing media.
I think Fetterman is.
With RCV, Golden can still come out on top. But you can only piss off your base so much before that won't save you.
Does Maine have RCV for congressional elections or only the Senate?
All congressional elections. Golden won in 2018 because of RCV.
There is no way in hell Paul LePage is going to beat Jared Golden. Mainers are so done with LePage; they showed that when Janet Mills humiliated his comeback effort by beating him by 13 points!
While Dems in ME-02 may view Golden unfavorable because of his occasional Republican-leaning votes in the House, we will definitely vote for Golden when the alternative is sending LePage to DC.
Such vindictive thoughts are not really helpful. It’s just as unstrategic as wishing to see Joe Manchin go down in flames in West Virginia. Fact is we need a Democrat in ME-02 to have a good hope of flipping the House – and Jared Golden is the best we can do in this bright-Red district.
Hmm.
I’d make a small quibble that we don’t need Golden to have a good chance of taking the house.
It’s only a quibble though as I’d rather we have him than not. Every seat counts.
Yes, every seat counts – and every seat held increases the chances of flipping the House.
With the GOP picking up four seats between Texas and Ohio it may be a closer call than we'd hope.
Their gerrymander may truly turn out to be a dummymander if our dream team runs and the Latino backlash on paper arrives for Trump in reality.
I can only imagine how much Golden is going to make us dance to his tunes like Manchinema if he alone holds the control of the House.
Word is they're going to try to get two more seats out of the RGV and get rid of Sylvia Garcia's seat, I think they can maybe get one more seat out of the RGV. The maximalist approach is really risky.
I think it’s also possible they make TX-07 and TX-32 swing seats. Making them outright red would be tough without endangering neighboring seats like 03, 22, 24, 38.
yeah there's lots of extra Republican votes in the south and southwestern exurbs.
It might not be. Both could easily turn into dummymanders and it’s not at all a sure thing Texas redraws.
I'm plugged into the legal and political community in Texas and it is very much a guarantee they attempt a redraw.
You are a Mainer, right? Would definitely defer to your feel on this.
However, even in his humiliating double digit defeat, LePage still carried the district by a small margin. So I wouldn’t completely rule out his chance against Golden.
I could very well be wrong and tainted by wishful thinking. There are times when I fail to totally realize how Red it is in our Congressional district. Our own town (false advertising, it’s really only a hamlet but nobody uses that word) is split pretty much down the middle.
Also, I’m not a native Mainer; my wife and I have been here for roughly twelve years. There are numerous Mainers on DB whose knowledge and feel are far better than mine.
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1ll1dyl/supreme_court_upholds_south_carolinas_ban_on/
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/27/supreme-court-rulings-decisions-today-news-analysis/birthright-citizenship-democrats-condemn-00427992
Everyone should remember what Republicans do with control of all 3 branches of government and act accordingly when we get control of the legislature and the executive the next time.
Isn't there any way that NY Dems can gerrymander the house? What if they redistrict just in time for the elections when the NY SC is not able to strike it down?
The Planned Parenthood decision was actually whether the plaintiffs had standing to sue, although the effect is the same.
It's not clear from the decision whether all nationwide injunctions are forbidden from now on, but I haven't had the chance to look at it in detail.
States can still sue and get an injunction just not individuals it seems
In that case, all the Dem AGs need to team up.
On the plus side, Republicans can no longer "judge shop" suits against a future Democratic president by going to hacks like Kacsmaryk.
And if a future Democratic trifecta overhauls SCOTUS, hello common sense gun control laws.
Oh don't worry I'm sure this Supreme Court will find an exception.
The PP case gives the green light to any state that wants to bar PP from being a provider of Medicaid services in that state. It will be state by state but the ruling is that neither the provider (eg. PP) nor the patient has standing to sue.
I think the birthright decision allowed nationwide injunctions in class action cases.
Democrats Allred, Castro, O’Rourke, Talarico meet to discuss 2026 options.
Four of Texas’ leading Democrats met last month to sort out which of them is the best choice to run for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn and to potentially develop a slate that would contend for other statewide offices
Correct Link: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2025/06/26/democrats-allred-castro-orourke-talarico-meet-to-discuss-2026-options
This is the way
Amen, brutha!
Great news. My dream is that they all run for a different statewide office.
O'Rourke needs to run for Mayor of El Paso if he wants to be in elected officie. His days as a statewide candidate, at least for the foreseeable future, are behind him.
Frankly, he should let people forget him for a while until Texas turns blue one day.
Yeah he's only 52. If he wants to do something else for a decade then take a last crack at the Governorship or Senate he can do so in what will probably be a more hospitable environment, especially if he spends a good chunk of that time doing something everyone likes such as running a homelessness nonprofit or whatever.
I agree with this. Beto "Damn right we’re coming for your guns" O’Rourke is damaged goods, electorally speaking, at least to a prominent statewide Texas office.
I agree that he would not win but I think his being on the ballot (and campaigning as he did before) can goose turnout for the others. How about for railroad commissioner?
I think convincing someone who ran for President and was, for a portion of that race, one of the leading candidates to run for Railroad commissioner is a tough sell. Maybe Lieutenant Governor, but even that seems unlikely.
Honestly Castro is in the same boat.
At least Castro hasn't lost statewide twice and we don't know how he'd perform in a competitive general election. He's a relatively talented politician and I think we should run Latino candidates for some seats.
What just happened to Cuomo is a positive step. And now, Lamont may suffer the same fate. IMO, the trick is to bring strong Democratic primary options to hold voters, rather than have them leave for a non-viable third-party candidates. However, the establishment Democrats are quite skilled at stepping on rakes.
Supreme Court doesn't decide the Louisiana redistricting case. Will be reargued in the fall.
Why? If the 6-3 conservative majority has the clout, why aren't they taking the final wrecking ball to the VRA now?
This as actual an equal protection case. But, as witnessed by the Alabama decision a couple of years ago, they may not have the votes.
7 House Democrats voted for a resolution today that stated in part: "Whereas California’s leadership has prioritized protecting illegal immigrants and violent individuals over United States citizens," including two members of the California delegation.
Costa
Cuellar
Davis
Gillen
Golden
Gray
Suozzi
https://bsky.app/profile/jonathancohn.bsky.social/post/3lslvr3bros2m
What a lovely group of primary targets.
And before anyone says "oh but they're in vulnerable seats!!", there are several other Dems in just as if not more competitive seats that didn't vote for the resolution.
Of the two Californians Costa has always been problematic (I'm being kind here) while Gray just got elected in 2024 by an under 200 vote margin. Both are in Central Valley seats where the political spectrum is farther to the right than in coastal areas and the biggest cities. I can't stand Jim Costa and would never vote for or donate to him. I don't know Adam Gray as well, but he won't be on my 2026 contributions list. My limited resources will go towards George Whitesides, Derek Tran and David Min (the other three new D House members from CA.)
I could not have said it better.
Costa is also a Blue Dog Democrat and a co-chair of the coalition. In California!
Even if his district is a D+4 Lean Blue (last I checked), a better Democrat can still primary Costa out of office and win as long as the candidate fits the district.
I don't know. With top-2, are you sure a more liberal Democrat could primary him out of office without a Republican victory being the result?
CA-21’s population is 64% Hispanic and Caucasians represent less than 20% of the population.
If Democrats nominated a superior Democratic Congressional Candidate who is Hispanic and has strong appeal in the district, it’s possible he would make it easier for Democrats to hold onto the district (Costa won by single digits or narrow margins in 2010, 2014 and 2024).
Costa’s GOP challenger in 2022, Michael Maher, ran again in 2024 and lost the election by 5.2% points. I think as long as the Democratic Nominee (if not Costa) can beat the GOP well in the general election, then it could work.
Maybe. It probably would make a big difference if the opponent were Hispanic. But that district just seems pretty conservative and low-turnout.
Yes it would.
That said, if you take into account that part of this district was in the previous CA-21 district that David Valadao represented prior to redistricting, that accounts for why Jim Costa’s margins of victory in the last two elections have been smaller. Prior to redistricting, in most elections Costa was able to win comfortably by double digits (exception being 2014). I don’t think an incumbent like Costa is needed for Democrats to hold CA-21 these days but the district is also not exactly like representing in the Bay Area.
FYI, Costa himself is not actually a bad Democrat. He came out against the Dobbs decision and on plenty of social issues he fits in line with the Democratic Party. His votes as of recently (including the one that is what we are referencing in this thread) may be taking into account the new CA-22 district he represents.
I get that some dems feel the need to make bad votes from time to time so they can get some stupid headlines that justify them as "bipartisan" or "moderate" for the sake of their reelection campaign.
But the frequency of taking those shit votes on the dumbest things that take a buzzsaw to our messaging and party unity and party popularity is astounding. None of them are going to gain a single vote from taking this position. Only Golden in this group is in a particularly dangerous seat for us. The others are all in lightly red seats at worst. All while this is exactly the kind of thing that plays into why many voters think poorly of us.
Can anyone here imagine any republicans in their vulnerable seats voting for a resolution assigning a comparable level of unpatriotic fault to Texas? I cannot. None of them would ever go for it.
It's so stupid and pisses me off. Which is made worse because they'll feel justified in no small part because they *want* to piss off people like me.
Have to say this is dumb even as a strictly CYA political move . . .voters in these districts aren't going to care about a resolution condemning California, and their Republican opponents will paint them as weak on immigration anyway. All so unnecessary.
Might the ones in CA get pushback on this as not only wrong but against the state?
You'd never see Republicans vote with Dems on these kind of resolutions. I'm so tired of our reps falling for these bad faith votes.
My personal opinion:
This is nothing. No policy is being implemented and no actual consequence will come of it. It’s pure performative bs by the Republicans to keep their base frothing at Democrats.
That said, Democrats who barely won in 2024 or who represent Trump districts get a pass for me. Why? Let’s put it this way: If votes like these mean these representatives can win re-election as a vote for a Democratic speaker, by all means keep voting for the stupid crap.
If they choose to vote on things like this in order to feel they have political permission to oppose truly awful legislation that will be made law and actually hurt people, I take that tradeoff every day. I don’t like it, I think the votes are stupid, but try to think of it from a different perspective.
If you absolutely had to choose, which would you pick? Having a Democratic speaker vote win re-election with these stupid votes that doesn’t effect anything or having a Democratic speaker vote without these stupid votes potentially leading to a Republican speaker vote? I know which I’d pick.
But they are voting for lies that are used to justify dictatorial actions against California. This is not the time to enable fascism and authoritarianism, and right now, I think that may be more important than eventual midterm election results, because we can't even be sure the midterm elections will be free and fair countrywide.
Personally I think buying into Republican lies in the name of "bipartisanship" is why we are where we are today. We need to stop playing on their rhetorical battleground and call out performative BS by refusing to engage with it.
The quoted part is such fantasy. What these seven gave the R's is the ability to claim the resolution was bipartisan.
Why does Silwa wear a red beret? Is there a reason because afaik it's a Marxist symbol.
His Guardian Angels group wears them. Part of their scary vigilante cosplay.
Hey now, they had a purpose back during the peak of NYC crime in the 70s and 80s. They're also not illegal because they don't carry weapons and only practice citizen's arrest and hand-to-hand self-defense.
There was always a debate about whether they had a good purpose, but in those bad old days of high crime, the presence of Guardian Angels did have a positive psychological effect on many people, at least.
He wears that thing so often that he has a *beret tan*. I saw an image of it the other day, ghastly stuff.
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1938561374000480662
Yeah, that is a very clear depiction. It's troubling to see that independents appear to lean Republican.
Look at the Y axis-it still shows roughly 2/3 of independents against. Not surprising the indies who watch Fox regularly grew in their support.
I did look at that, but more were opposed before the bombings.
Rs went up more than Ds went down, I'd expect indies to go up on net because the fraction that are basically Rs would move more than the fraction who are basically Ds.
https://www.politico.eu/article/greek-farm-scandal-triggers-top-level-government-resignations/
Five Greek Ministers have resigned after being implicated in a scheme to defraud the European Union's farm budget.
Fifteen MP's have been named by EU prosecutors so far.
Big yikes
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1938640289930895646
The flow of Biden and Trump 2020 voters and nonvoters.
Excerpt from https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/behind-trumps-2024-victory-a-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-voter-coalition/
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1938644951245492237
Jake Tapper gets negatively polarized into supporting Hegseth's renaming lol. Seems like the algo fed him too much anti Biden and pro GOP slop.
The tweet is not self-explanatory. What is this about?