I’m optimistic on Ager winning. He needs to and will run up the score in Asheville and flip Jackson County. It’s not ideal that Balkcom is from Henderson County, but Ager does not need to win there. Transylvania County also showed signs of drifting our way in 2024.
One factor that is in Ager's favor is that Balkcom, even by NC GOP standards, is extremely anti-abortion. Balkcom has stated that she believes that abortion is never medically necessary (which is a lie, and opposing abortion even in situations where abortion is necessary to save the mother's life is extremely unpopular even in some of the most anti-abortion parts of the country).
For some reason it irks me more when it is a youngish (?) woman who claims there is never a medical need for an abortion that if it is a doddering old white dude.
Of course, I think ALL politicians should stay out of trying to legislate women's reproductive healthcare!! Plus since the GOP are such hypocrites, you have to wonder if the anti-abortion women got an abortion themselves or if the men paid or or pressured their partners to get one.
WSJ, a Murdoch rag, reports a Fox News poll saying that voters cite Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans. Which is the first time since 2010.
Dems still had an economy advantage in 2010 even when they got blown out? Makes me think the DNC basically didn’t even try to turn out voters that year if that’s the case because it means there clearly were persuadable voters out there.
The poll was conducted between July 17-20, 2026 of 1,003 registered voters with a 3 percent margin of error.
So, if that Koch poll of reliable GOP voters in swing states bears out (where 20% of regular GOP voters said they would sit out the '26 midterms or vote Democratic), we could see some shock flips.
The coverage was "death panels" all the time. Also the recovery package wasn't big enough, so people were still feeling the pain of the recession, even if they blamed Republicans more.
The lesson of that is don’t ever try bipartisanship with people who are actively trying to make you fail…especially after they actually say that is their plan.
The recovery package should have been done via budget reconciliation like in 2021 so that Republicans were completely cut out of the process, especially after they had that well publicized meeting they they were gonna vote 100% against anything Obama and Democrats proposed.
It certainly didn’t help elect any Democrats in 2010 though, which as we know, would have been helpful when it came to potentially confirming Scalia’s replacement in 2016 or preventing some Republican gerrymanders in 2011.
The honest answer is I don't know. I burned out of politics hard after 2024 and took a full year off of even looking st election discussions, and have been limited since. I may take a crack at it, but I cant say for certain. It'd be ~100 hours of work, and I am not fully sold on doing it. Plus, I think Id have to post it on the old DailyKos site and link it here? The substack format doesn't really lend itself to user posts
No joke, I was thinking the other day of commenting recommending The Downballot let you run it as a guest post. That said, I can respect both not having the time for that kind of research project and being burned out after 2024.
I'm just very invested in MN races this year. The deaths of Melissa Hortman, Renee Good, and Alex Pretti have really stuck with me.
Yeah the whole murder spree incident really shook me. One of the state Senators who survived because she didnt answer her door, Ann Rest, is my State Senator. The dude drove by my house on his route, and I was home that night.
Missouri Democrats have fielded candidates for 97% of the races this year. There is a candidate for 158 of the 163 House districts, and in every statewide and state Senate seat up this year.
CO-4: Tyler Boebert, the son of Rep. Lauren Boebert, was arrested for alleged sexual exploitation, mostly stemming from a video he posted of him having sex as a teenager.
Despite usually being a strongly Republican seat, Boebert's unpopularity + Democratic gains in suburban areas could put it in play. The top of the statewide ticket with Victor Marx probably doesn't help her either.
Sounds like he videotaped the act and distributed it. While yes it remains an allegation until hia day in court, but that evidence seems pretty damning.
Important context: the alleged pedophilia was him distributing a recording of him being intimate with someone when he was 18 and she was 17. It's definitely scummy, it's not nearly as bad as the headline makes out.
Edit: other people have correctly pointed out that the main issue is that he filmed and distributed it.
Ehhh..an adult is an adult and a child is a child. If what he did is illegal, it's illegal. There's no gray area just because they're a year apart. Maybe they're similar in age, appearance and maturity levels, but the law is still the law.
Nearly every state has Romeo and Juliet laws for this very reason. Because an 18 and 17 year old could be classmates 2 days apart in age. Where if Tuesday both are 17, its legal, Wednesday one of them turns 18 is is labeled a pedophile. Then thursday its legal again.
In this case she was apparently 3 weeks from turning 18 when the video was made and they are 11 months apart and were then in a legal sexual relationship. Reportedly *she* sent the video to other people but got mad when her ex-boyfriend got a copy a day later and she reported the unauthorized distribution to the police--she was not making a complaint against Tyler. But as a legal child, she didn't get to decide.
I'm not saying there's a gray area, because there isn't. You're right, the law is the law. I'm saying that to most people, there's a big difference between an 18 year old hooking up with a 17 year old and the images that come to mind when you think about pedophilia. Claiming that this boy is a pedophile is reaching, as it's not like the Jeffrey Epstein or Matt Gaetz stuff. To respond to other people though, yes, the filming and distributing of the video is still really bad and is what people should focus on.
I think in most states it only counts as "pedophilia" if the victim is 13 or younger (possibly that it varies in most states). The ages between 13 and 18 counts as molestation. That was the distinction that was made during the Roy Moore discussion.
And of course, in many states, the age of consent is 16 but the age of pornographic possession is, I believe, always 18. I've heard this come up in Iowa. Some guy in his 30s came from out of state to meet a 16-year-old he discovered online. The sex itself wasn't prosecutable, but they got him for sending nude photos of himself to the girl before he met her.
It’s not “technically” statutory rape because the age of consent in Colorado (where I’m assuming this occurred) is 17. It’s not “technically” pedophilia because pedophilia refers to interest in prepubescent children, of which a 17 year old is not (and is also a medical term, not a legal term). The crime here is the distribution of the video, not the relationship.
To be precise, Boebert was charged with sexual exploitation of a child and contributing to the delinquency of a minor. There is no crime on the books called "pedophilia".
MI-Gov: For whatever reason, John James thinks now's the best moment to introduce a bill sanctioning Canada over the wildfire smoke, cuz that definitely wouldn't backfire on Michigan's economy and make it easy to tie him to Trump's unpopular trade wars.
Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain says that after doing some internal modeling, Benson is likely to win the MI governor's race by 11 points. He says that el-Sayed will run behind her quite a bit but still predicted to win the seat.
It's not super uncommon for senate races to be closer than gubernatorial races on the same ballot. Hell you can look at Michigan in 2018 as an example: Incumbent Stabenow slightly underperformed first time statewide candidate Gretchen Whitmer.
James only seems overhyped now after lackluster showings in 2022 and 2024, but he performed legitimately strongly, even in defeat, in 2018 and 2020. I can see why Michigan Republicans have some legacy love for him.
Michigander here. Benson's had a good tenure as SOS. I think she beats James by 12-14 points (Due to continued political shifts in western Michigan and the TC/Petoskey area.)
I don't think that MAGA is aware of how difficult it would be for Canada to prevent and/or put out the wildfires. Most of the fires are in extremely remote locations hundreds of miles from populated areas and those areas have no roads or infrastructure for accessing these areas. The area where the fires are located is also a huge area that is the size of the entire US Southeast. There really aren't any easy solutions to stop or prevent these fires but once again MAGA fails to do any research before making reckless comments and stupid policy decisions by starting another trade war with Canada that will have a disparate impact on border states like Michigan.
MAGA apparently isn't aware that we are done with their crap and thst the damage to trade, tourism, and cooperation on military and diplomatic affairs will take generations to repair. Keep it up and we will make the Berlin Wall look like a subway turnstile.
Also, I'm not sure we want to make reparations for wildfire smoke a thing, considering how many wildfires happen in California/the Rocky Mountain states.
It's a great talking point for the GOP to blame it on Canada though. I would imagine the overwhelming majority of the American population is scratching their head why these Canadian wildfires are allowed to burn when it chokes off the entire hemisphere's air quality. It's great politics for the GOP to pretend not to know better and lean into that, forcing the Democrats to try to explain on Canada's behalf, summer after summer after summer, why nothing can be done.
I don't think this is a matter of "not doing any research". I think they know better but they're saying it anyway. Republicans get to avoid confronting climate change and kick the can down the road by rallying the country against Canada as the easy solution for dealing with wildfires.
Yeah, the situation in Canada is completely different than, say, California, where there’s some very real political policy critiques to be made across the board (not just on underbrush clearance but development, power line underinvestment, underfunded fire personnel to pay for other niche priorities).
There’s very little do be done when an area the size of Georgia with a population of zero is on fire and the nearest roads might be hundreds of kilometers away
Bad storm/possible tornado coming through Chicago and suburbs right now. Hope everyone stays safe. With the amount of moisture we've gotten this summer, could lead to more trees being uprooted.
No idea whether it will affect the cheese people to our north and turnout today.
West Virginia had devastating ones back in July. As I was escaping one I entered a flooded basement. I got lucky - towns in the central region of the state like Weston and Buckhannon needed federal assistance.
There was a Sheetz (local gas station chain) that people stayed in overnight.
Final SC-Senate poll from everyon'es favorite pollster. Basically has Graham going through then a massive tossup between Norman, Fry and... Sanford! Would be crazy if he got through and most likely another thorn in Trump's side. Or at least as much of one that SC will give you. Would be very intersted to see polling with Andrews vs these top 4
Final @trafalgar_group
SC GOP 2026 Special Election for US Senate Tracking Poll (8/8-10)
I am thinking the opposite. I think that's close to her ceiling. Fry and Norman voters are natural allies, Sanford is the wrench in it though. That would be interesting.
I just bought an Indiana 2nd Congressional District Democrat t-shirt, in a fundraiser for our candidate Jamee Decio. If the redistricting Republicans prevail, and it is looking like they will, I may have to put a patch over 2nd district, before the next election in 2028, as the plan is to cram my red area into the first district.
WA-5: It's highly unlikely, but I could realistically see independent Nate Powell catching up to Democrat Carmela Conroy to take second place to Republican Rep. Michael Baumgartner. 90% in and less than 3 points between them.
Also, Baumgartner, the only Republican running, only got 47% of the vote!! Trump won the seat 54-43 in 2024.
Conceding is a good sportsmanship thing, it has no legal effect like with withdrawal. If Powell ends up having more votes, he would "un-concede" in a heartbeat.
Or in the case of the GOP candidates, they won't concede even when they have lost - I am specifically thinking of Jefferson Griffith in the 2024 NC Supreme Court race against Allison Riggs. She was sworn in 6 months after the election!!
Connecticut's gubernatorial election. Elliott is a state representative primarying incumbent Ned Lamont from the left, citing Lamont's conservative record of bills he has signed, his age and decades in the political world, and his power, money and connections like to Andrew Cuomo.
The Republican SoS argued that the referendum to reverse re-redistricting wasn't allowed, therefore the map won't be enjoined. However, the election ballots can still be changed before early September, hence the expedited process.
So there is a story making the rounds this afternoon about comments made by Trump to a right-wing news outlet about declaring a national emergency to seize control of the elections. Now, as per usual it was phrased in his usual BS way of "stay tuned, you never know, people are talking" which could be him trying to sound tough to his MAGA audience. On a scale of zero to eleventy zillion, how serious does the collective wisdom here think this is? I know that your Constitution doesn't give a lot of power to the federal government in general or the executive in particular over how elections are run, and the amount of manpower needed to enforce anything is beyond DHS or other agencies. Is this just Trump taking the piss as he sometimes does?
It's a good worry to have, and I think he does have a slight amount of power when it comes to overseeing elections, but I doubt that it will go beyond a certain limit.
He will probably try to do something. At this time, I don't see the courts letting any order of his go into effect. But with this SCOTUS, anything is possible.
This seems much more realistic than Peltola +5.
Polling for primaries is a crap shoot!
This seems to be a general election poll, not a primary one.
I’m optimistic on Ager winning. He needs to and will run up the score in Asheville and flip Jackson County. It’s not ideal that Balkcom is from Henderson County, but Ager does not need to win there. Transylvania County also showed signs of drifting our way in 2024.
One factor that is in Ager's favor is that Balkcom, even by NC GOP standards, is extremely anti-abortion. Balkcom has stated that she believes that abortion is never medically necessary (which is a lie, and opposing abortion even in situations where abortion is necessary to save the mother's life is extremely unpopular even in some of the most anti-abortion parts of the country).
Balkcom has extreme Karen energy. Awful woman.
Not as much Karen energy as her potential House colleague and fellow Appalachia resident Virginia Foxx, though.
I despise Foxx as well. As well as that cheater Mark Harris.
Yeah, it's definitely medically necessary. I would know - I would not be alive without abortion.
UGH!
For some reason it irks me more when it is a youngish (?) woman who claims there is never a medical need for an abortion that if it is a doddering old white dude.
Of course, I think ALL politicians should stay out of trying to legislate women's reproductive healthcare!! Plus since the GOP are such hypocrites, you have to wonder if the anti-abortion women got an abortion themselves or if the men paid or or pressured their partners to get one.
I checked the maps and it looks like US House NC-11 contains all or part of NC house districts 85, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, and 120.
Balkcom currently represents HD-117. Her district is the northern 2/3 of Henderson Co. The rest of it is in HD-113.
Transylvania Co. is in HD-119.
WSJ, a Murdoch rag, reports a Fox News poll saying that voters cite Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans. Which is the first time since 2010.
That is a huge shift.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/the-republican-party-is-losing-its-edge-with-voters-on-the-economy-b2450a14?mod=elections_lead_pos2
Dems still had an economy advantage in 2010 even when they got blown out? Makes me think the DNC basically didn’t even try to turn out voters that year if that’s the case because it means there clearly were persuadable voters out there.
The poll was conducted between July 17-20, 2026 of 1,003 registered voters with a 3 percent margin of error.
So, if that Koch poll of reliable GOP voters in swing states bears out (where 20% of regular GOP voters said they would sit out the '26 midterms or vote Democratic), we could see some shock flips.
The coverage was "death panels" all the time. Also the recovery package wasn't big enough, so people were still feeling the pain of the recession, even if they blamed Republicans more.
The lesson of that is don’t ever try bipartisanship with people who are actively trying to make you fail…especially after they actually say that is their plan.
The recovery package should have been done via budget reconciliation like in 2021 so that Republicans were completely cut out of the process, especially after they had that well publicized meeting they they were gonna vote 100% against anything Obama and Democrats proposed.
The ARP helped revitalize the economy and get more businesses open. I remember the Great Resignation period fondly.
It certainly didn’t help elect any Democrats in 2010 though, which as we know, would have been helpful when it came to potentially confirming Scalia’s replacement in 2016 or preventing some Republican gerrymanders in 2011.
Voted this morning in Golden Valley MN (UMC Hennepin County first ring suburb). Voted for all of the DFL endorsed candidates.
Will you be doing your rundown of every state leg race? I look forward to your guides every 2 years.
Thank you for the kind words.
The honest answer is I don't know. I burned out of politics hard after 2024 and took a full year off of even looking st election discussions, and have been limited since. I may take a crack at it, but I cant say for certain. It'd be ~100 hours of work, and I am not fully sold on doing it. Plus, I think Id have to post it on the old DailyKos site and link it here? The substack format doesn't really lend itself to user posts
No joke, I was thinking the other day of commenting recommending The Downballot let you run it as a guest post. That said, I can respect both not having the time for that kind of research project and being burned out after 2024.
I'm just very invested in MN races this year. The deaths of Melissa Hortman, Renee Good, and Alex Pretti have really stuck with me.
Yeah the whole murder spree incident really shook me. One of the state Senators who survived because she didnt answer her door, Ann Rest, is my State Senator. The dude drove by my house on his route, and I was home that night.
Missouri Democrats have fielded candidates for 97% of the races this year. There is a candidate for 158 of the 163 House districts, and in every statewide and state Senate seat up this year.
https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-08-07/missouri-democrats-biggest-slate-candidates-to-target-republican-supermajority-election-2026
This is a big deal. If the MO Democrats can ride a blue wave, that GOP supermajority in the legislature is broken.
Hoping for a Flanagan win tonight.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/lauren-boeberts-21-year-old-son-arrested-child-sexual-exploitation-cha-rcna591830
CO-4: Tyler Boebert, the son of Rep. Lauren Boebert, was arrested for alleged sexual exploitation, mostly stemming from a video he posted of him having sex as a teenager.
Despite usually being a strongly Republican seat, Boebert's unpopularity + Democratic gains in suburban areas could put it in play. The top of the statewide ticket with Victor Marx probably doesn't help her either.
Sounds like he videotaped the act and distributed it. While yes it remains an allegation until hia day in court, but that evidence seems pretty damning.
Important context: the alleged pedophilia was him distributing a recording of him being intimate with someone when he was 18 and she was 17. It's definitely scummy, it's not nearly as bad as the headline makes out.
Edit: other people have correctly pointed out that the main issue is that he filmed and distributed it.
Ehhh..an adult is an adult and a child is a child. If what he did is illegal, it's illegal. There's no gray area just because they're a year apart. Maybe they're similar in age, appearance and maturity levels, but the law is still the law.
Nearly every state has Romeo and Juliet laws for this very reason. Because an 18 and 17 year old could be classmates 2 days apart in age. Where if Tuesday both are 17, its legal, Wednesday one of them turns 18 is is labeled a pedophile. Then thursday its legal again.
In this case she was apparently 3 weeks from turning 18 when the video was made and they are 11 months apart and were then in a legal sexual relationship. Reportedly *she* sent the video to other people but got mad when her ex-boyfriend got a copy a day later and she reported the unauthorized distribution to the police--she was not making a complaint against Tyler. But as a legal child, she didn't get to decide.
I'm not saying there's a gray area, because there isn't. You're right, the law is the law. I'm saying that to most people, there's a big difference between an 18 year old hooking up with a 17 year old and the images that come to mind when you think about pedophilia. Claiming that this boy is a pedophile is reaching, as it's not like the Jeffrey Epstein or Matt Gaetz stuff. To respond to other people though, yes, the filming and distributing of the video is still really bad and is what people should focus on.
I think in most states it only counts as "pedophilia" if the victim is 13 or younger (possibly that it varies in most states). The ages between 13 and 18 counts as molestation. That was the distinction that was made during the Roy Moore discussion.
And of course, in many states, the age of consent is 16 but the age of pornographic possession is, I believe, always 18. I've heard this come up in Iowa. Some guy in his 30s came from out of state to meet a 16-year-old he discovered online. The sex itself wasn't prosecutable, but they got him for sending nude photos of himself to the girl before he met her.
Also recording it and putting in on instagram. That's way worse than the age gap.
Exactly. That's what jumped out at me there
It’s not “technically” statutory rape because the age of consent in Colorado (where I’m assuming this occurred) is 17. It’s not “technically” pedophilia because pedophilia refers to interest in prepubescent children, of which a 17 year old is not (and is also a medical term, not a legal term). The crime here is the distribution of the video, not the relationship.
Yeah with that context this is an entirely different story than what the headline projects.
To be precise, Boebert was charged with sexual exploitation of a child and contributing to the delinquency of a minor. There is no crime on the books called "pedophilia".
Yeah, edited to reflect that pedophilia is a broader term than the crime he's being charged with.
Sounds like he’ll be a future Republican nominee for something in ten years.
Weird, with such a strong moral presence at home this is shocking /s
MI-Gov: For whatever reason, John James thinks now's the best moment to introduce a bill sanctioning Canada over the wildfire smoke, cuz that definitely wouldn't backfire on Michigan's economy and make it easy to tie him to Trump's unpopular trade wars.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9783/text
Benson by 7-10 or more.
I suspect Benson will run about 5 points (net) ahead of AES. So as long as she wins by 6+ then Senate should fall our way.
John James is perhaps the most overhyped/underwhelming candidate of the past decade.
Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain says that after doing some internal modeling, Benson is likely to win the MI governor's race by 11 points. He says that el-Sayed will run behind her quite a bit but still predicted to win the seat.
https://nitter.net/lxeagle17/status/2085054373563126069#m
I would wait until late October before trying to decide what the result might be.
Please check out Split Ticket and/or The Argument Mag, their analysis is purely data driven.
It's not super uncommon for senate races to be closer than gubernatorial races on the same ballot. Hell you can look at Michigan in 2018 as an example: Incumbent Stabenow slightly underperformed first time statewide candidate Gretchen Whitmer.
The Great Black GOP Hope. But it is really just hype.
The inverse political version of boxer Gerry Cooney.
James only seems overhyped now after lackluster showings in 2022 and 2024, but he performed legitimately strongly, even in defeat, in 2018 and 2020. I can see why Michigan Republicans have some legacy love for him.
Michigander here. Benson's had a good tenure as SOS. I think she beats James by 12-14 points (Due to continued political shifts in western Michigan and the TC/Petoskey area.)
I don't think that MAGA is aware of how difficult it would be for Canada to prevent and/or put out the wildfires. Most of the fires are in extremely remote locations hundreds of miles from populated areas and those areas have no roads or infrastructure for accessing these areas. The area where the fires are located is also a huge area that is the size of the entire US Southeast. There really aren't any easy solutions to stop or prevent these fires but once again MAGA fails to do any research before making reckless comments and stupid policy decisions by starting another trade war with Canada that will have a disparate impact on border states like Michigan.
MAGA apparently isn't aware that we are done with their crap and thst the damage to trade, tourism, and cooperation on military and diplomatic affairs will take generations to repair. Keep it up and we will make the Berlin Wall look like a subway turnstile.
Also, I'm not sure we want to make reparations for wildfire smoke a thing, considering how many wildfires happen in California/the Rocky Mountain states.
That, too
It's a great talking point for the GOP to blame it on Canada though. I would imagine the overwhelming majority of the American population is scratching their head why these Canadian wildfires are allowed to burn when it chokes off the entire hemisphere's air quality. It's great politics for the GOP to pretend not to know better and lean into that, forcing the Democrats to try to explain on Canada's behalf, summer after summer after summer, why nothing can be done.
I don't think this is a matter of "not doing any research". I think they know better but they're saying it anyway. Republicans get to avoid confronting climate change and kick the can down the road by rallying the country against Canada as the easy solution for dealing with wildfires.
Yeah, the situation in Canada is completely different than, say, California, where there’s some very real political policy critiques to be made across the board (not just on underbrush clearance but development, power line underinvestment, underfunded fire personnel to pay for other niche priorities).
There’s very little do be done when an area the size of Georgia with a population of zero is on fire and the nearest roads might be hundreds of kilometers away
Bad storm/possible tornado coming through Chicago and suburbs right now. Hope everyone stays safe. With the amount of moisture we've gotten this summer, could lead to more trees being uprooted.
No idea whether it will affect the cheese people to our north and turnout today.
West Virginia had devastating ones back in July. As I was escaping one I entered a flooded basement. I got lucky - towns in the central region of the state like Weston and Buckhannon needed federal assistance.
There was a Sheetz (local gas station chain) that people stayed in overnight.
Glad you ended up safe. If we could only figure out why there's been such a change in the climate...
Fortunately for me, the storms passed quite a ways north of where I live.
Storms in Northern Indiana as well. Tornado sirens as a warning about straight line winds.
Hope you're safe. It was pretty dark and windy there for a while.
It bypassed our areas. I've not yet heard how other areas fared.
In northern Indiana here, we had to shelter in place at work for about an hour.
I hope everyone stays safe. Very hot weather in Northern Europe the last few days, though it was milder today.
News from the North: unlike a certain Kentucky senator, Liberal MP Shaun Chen of Scarborough North realized his recovery from a car accident is preventing him from serving. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-mp-shaun-chen-resigns-9.7301941
How proper!
Final SC-Senate poll from everyon'es favorite pollster. Basically has Graham going through then a massive tossup between Norman, Fry and... Sanford! Would be crazy if he got through and most likely another thorn in Trump's side. Or at least as much of one that SC will give you. Would be very intersted to see polling with Andrews vs these top 4
Final @trafalgar_group
SC GOP 2026 Special Election for US Senate Tracking Poll (8/8-10)
1027 Respondents
2.9 MOE
26.4%
@DarlineGrahamSC
19.5%
@RalphNorman
18.4%
@RussellFrySC
18.3%
@MarkSanford
7.5%
@MarkLynchSC
My honest guess, if Graham finished first, probably she will beat one of the three advanced into runoff.
I am thinking the opposite. I think that's close to her ceiling. Fry and Norman voters are natural allies, Sanford is the wrench in it though. That would be interesting.
I think Sanford voters go to Graham and Lynch voters decide election
Sanford being the GOP nominee, although very unlikely, might put the seat in play for Democratic nominee Annie Andrews.
Could see a lot of more conservative voters sitting that one out, especially after the inevitable Trump rant against him
I just bought an Indiana 2nd Congressional District Democrat t-shirt, in a fundraiser for our candidate Jamee Decio. If the redistricting Republicans prevail, and it is looking like they will, I may have to put a patch over 2nd district, before the next election in 2028, as the plan is to cram my red area into the first district.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/washington-us-house-district-5-results
WA-5: It's highly unlikely, but I could realistically see independent Nate Powell catching up to Democrat Carmela Conroy to take second place to Republican Rep. Michael Baumgartner. 90% in and less than 3 points between them.
Also, Baumgartner, the only Republican running, only got 47% of the vote!! Trump won the seat 54-43 in 2024.
FWIW, Powell has already conceded.
Conceding is a good sportsmanship thing, it has no legal effect like with withdrawal. If Powell ends up having more votes, he would "un-concede" in a heartbeat.
True enough. But campaigns often times won't concede if they think there is enough outstanding vote for them to win.
It isn't legally binding, as you say. Nor is it always so.
But it is a big tell most times.
For sure
Or in the case of the GOP candidates, they won't concede even when they have lost - I am specifically thinking of Jefferson Griffith in the 2024 NC Supreme Court race against Allison Riggs. She was sworn in 6 months after the election!!
That Baumgartner number is pretty striking...
Today I voted for Josh Elliot. I was the only voter at the precinct.
Which race?
Connecticut's gubernatorial election. Elliott is a state representative primarying incumbent Ned Lamont from the left, citing Lamont's conservative record of bills he has signed, his age and decades in the political world, and his power, money and connections like to Andrew Cuomo.
Ah yes. Thanks!
MO Supreme Court braces for expedited review process: https://missouriindependent.com/2026/08/11/missouri-supreme-court-seeks-swift-action-in-redistricting-ballot-measure-case/
The Republican SoS argued that the referendum to reverse re-redistricting wasn't allowed, therefore the map won't be enjoined. However, the election ballots can still be changed before early September, hence the expedited process.
So there is a story making the rounds this afternoon about comments made by Trump to a right-wing news outlet about declaring a national emergency to seize control of the elections. Now, as per usual it was phrased in his usual BS way of "stay tuned, you never know, people are talking" which could be him trying to sound tough to his MAGA audience. On a scale of zero to eleventy zillion, how serious does the collective wisdom here think this is? I know that your Constitution doesn't give a lot of power to the federal government in general or the executive in particular over how elections are run, and the amount of manpower needed to enforce anything is beyond DHS or other agencies. Is this just Trump taking the piss as he sometimes does?
It's a good worry to have, and I think he does have a slight amount of power when it comes to overseeing elections, but I doubt that it will go beyond a certain limit.
It’s not even slight. There’s no power for the President to “control” elections. None. There’s fifty states for that.
Now that said, I’d expect more bullshit than usual from pliant state governors, but that’s to be expected with the GOP’s direction of travel anyways
He will probably try to do something. At this time, I don't see the courts letting any order of his go into effect. But with this SCOTUS, anything is possible.
When in doubt, it’s him bullshitting, especially with his approvals mired in the mid-to-low 30s
He will absolutely try something. We've seen him do so in the past.