Despite Elon Musk's multi-million dollar spending spree, progressives retain an advantage on the airwaves in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race—and now they're making an issue of Musk's involvement, too. At the same time, a rare poll shows liberal Judge Susan Crawford leading her opponent, former Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel, ahead of their April 1 showdown.
On the advertising front, new data from AdImpact shows that Crawford and her allies have spent $17 million to date versus $12 million for Schimel's side. Conservatives hold a small edge in future reservations, $6.3 million to $5.8 million, but that gap is a fraction of the $7 million advantage Schimel and his supporters enjoyed just two weeks ago.
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What's more, as has so often been the case in recent years, the raw dollar totals don't tell the full story. Per AdImpact, 69% of spending on the progressive side has come (or will come) from Crawford's campaign while the Schimel campaign is responsible for just 39% of conservative outlays.
As readers of The Downballot know, campaigns are entitled to lower ad rates than third-party groups, meaning that Crawford's camp has been able to run far more advertisements aimed at reaching voters.
That's a gap that even Musk—who remains the world's richest person even though his fortune has shed $120 billion since Tesla stock began heading downward in mid-December—has been unwilling to make up. What's more, Crawford's backers are seeking to turn his foray into a double-edged sword.
This week, the Wisconsin Democratic Party unveiled a campaign it dubbed "The People v. Elon Musk," promising a "seven-figure grassroots effort" that includes digital ads, town halls, and billboards calling attention to the $6 million put in by Musk and allied groups to boost Schimel.
"Firing air traffic controllers. Cutting rape crisis centers. Attacking Social Security. Elon Musk is out of control—and now the power-hungry billionaire is unloading millions to buy the Wisconsin Supreme Court," warns the narrator in the party's first ad as footage of Musk brandishing a chainsaw and throwing a Nazi salute plays.
"He knows MAGA politician Brad Schimel is for sale and will abolish the checks and balances that protect us," the spot continues. "He thinks he's above the law. Protect our last line of defense: Vote Susan Crawford for Supreme Court."
As NPR noted recently, Tesla is currently suing Wisconsin for its refusal to grant the company licenses to open car dealerships—a dispute that could ultimately make its way to the state's top court.
Despite Musk's efforts, a new survey from RMG Research for a conservative group called the Institute for Reforming Government finds Crawford up 42-35 over Schimel. That's a turnaround from January, when an RMG poll for the same client had Schimel ahead 40-35.
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Former state Rep. Rocky Adkins, who served as both majority leader and minority leader before leaving the state House in 2019, tells the Lexington Herald-Leader that he's received "a lot of calls and encouragement to run for the Senate." A spokesperson adds, however, that he hasn't made a decision yet about whether to seek the seat held by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell.
The paper's Austin Horn says that the prospect of an Adkins candidacy "excites many Kentucky Democrats," who last won a Senate race in 1992. Adkins ran for governor in 2019 but lost the primary to then-Attorney General Andy Beshear by a 39-32 margin. Soon after, though, Adkins joined Beshear's administration as a senior advisor.
Horn also checked in with Marine veteran Amy McGrath, who raised a ton of money for her 2020 campaign against McConnell but lost 58-38. McGrath didn't rule out a bid but said it's "way too early right now" to decide.
NH-Sen
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is "expected to announce this month" whether she'll run for a fourth term, according to unnamed "New Hampshire sources" who spoke with Punchbowl's Max Cohen. Shaheen, 78, told Cohen she hasn't made a decision yet.
House
AZ-01
Former state Rep. Amish Shah tells the Arizona Republic's Laura Gersony that he plans to run against Republican Rep. David Schweikert and will "start campaigning again this summer," though there's no direct quote from the candidate.
Shah lost last year's race for Arizona's swingy 1st District by a 52-48 margin, but he's not the only Democrat interested. Gersony reports that DNC member Mark Robert Gordon "might go for it" and adds that last year's runner-up in the Democratic primary, businessman Andrei Cherny, "is another possibility." Former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who finished just behind Cherny, is already running again.
Another 2024 candidate, finance executive Conor O'Callaghan, says he does not intend to run after taking fourth with 18% of the vote. A spokesperson assures Gersony's readers that "if he does in fact stay out, his endorsement will undoubtedly be a coveted one."
GA-06
With Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath likely to run for governor, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says, "Expect many more names to jump in" for her safely blue 6th District in the western Atlanta suburbs.
On the paper's early list of Democrats who might run are state Rep. David Wilkerson and former Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson, who challenged McBath in last year's primary after she was drawn out of her commission district but got crushed 85-9. The AJC previously mentioned state Sen. Sonya Halpern.
Attorneys General
FL-AG
Because we can never be rid of him, Matt Gaetz is now teasing that he might try to become attorney general after all—attorney general of the state of Florida, that is.
Gaetz is apparently unhappy with the newly appointed occupant of that post, James Uthmeier, who recently launched an investigation into Andrew and Tristan Tate, the far-right influencer siblings. The Tates arrived in the state last week after leaving Romania, where they'd been charged with rape and human trafficking, after the Trump administration reportedly pressured the Romanian government into letting them leave.
Uthmeier was named state attorney general last month by Gov. Ron DeSantis after the governor appointed the previous office-holder, Ashley Moody, to the Senate. Uthmeier previously served as both the governor's chief of staff and his campaign manager during his disastrous 2024 presidential bid.
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Outgoing City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams made a late entry into New York City's mayoral race on Wednesday night, joining a crowded Democratic primary with a scandal-tarred frontrunner in former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Adams would be the first woman to lead America's largest city.
The new contender, who already made history as the city's first Black Council speaker, was facing term limits this year and did not appear to be interested in running for another office. But last month, reports emerged that some top Democratic leaders, including state Attorney General Tish James, were encouraging Adams to run for mayor in the hopes of stopping Cuomo, who's led in the polls thanks to his high name recognition.
Adams now has just three-and-a-half months to complete that task and just four weeks to submit at least 3,750 signatures to make the primary ballot.
Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy signed legislation Thursday ending New Jersey's unique "county line" system, which had long given establishment-backed candidates a major advantage in primaries. A new ballot design—essentially the same as that used in every other state—will be deployed in the June 10 statewide primaries, where the race to succeed the termed-out Murphy will be the main event.
While that decision only applied to last year's Democratic primary—Republicans still awarded the line in most counties—its legal reasoning was applicable to all races. As a result, politicos widely anticipated that the Garden State would have all-new ballots starting this year. And sure enough, the legislation Murphy signed requires primary candidates to be grouped together based on the office they're seeking, which is the practice in the other 49 states.
Not everyone, though, believes the new bill goes far enough. More than 75 groups, including the state branch of the American Civil Liberties Union, last month asked Murphy to "conditionally veto" the measure, arguing that it would simply create a new "ballot that can be used to influence voters."
Among other things, they took issue with a provision that allows allied candidates running in a multi-member district, such as those used to elect members of the state Assembly, to be "bracketed" together on the ballot.
I think more Democrats nationwide should take the approach Wisconsin Ds are doing and tie in the Muskrat with the vulnerable Republican up for reelection.
Tying in Musk with someone unpopular like Tillis or Collins will push away soft Rs and energize Ds and left leaning independents.
KY-Sen: I met Adkins very briefly during the 2019 primary for Governor. I was not greatly impressed with him in person, but I've never doubted that he's very capable. And he did go all-in for Beshear, especially in Eastern KY, after his primary loss. It's far too early to say that he'd have my primary vote, but I wouldn't mind seeing him run.
I don't expect McGrath to make another run, for the Senate, but if Barr leaves KY-06 open, that might maybe could be another story. Remember, she came within 3.2%, and just under 10,000 votes, of Barr in 2018. The only other person to get that close was Ben Chandler, and /he/ was the incumbent.
I think more Democrats nationwide should take the approach Wisconsin Ds are doing and tie in the Muskrat with the vulnerable Republican up for reelection.
Tying in Musk with someone unpopular like Tillis or Collins will push away soft Rs and energize Ds and left leaning independents.
KY-Sen: I met Adkins very briefly during the 2019 primary for Governor. I was not greatly impressed with him in person, but I've never doubted that he's very capable. And he did go all-in for Beshear, especially in Eastern KY, after his primary loss. It's far too early to say that he'd have my primary vote, but I wouldn't mind seeing him run.
I don't expect McGrath to make another run, for the Senate, but if Barr leaves KY-06 open, that might maybe could be another story. Remember, she came within 3.2%, and just under 10,000 votes, of Barr in 2018. The only other person to get that close was Ben Chandler, and /he/ was the incumbent.