110 Comments
User's avatar
User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
AnthonySF's avatar

What I hope Dems are finally seeing is that there has never been an election in American history where gerrymandering was the deciding factor in someone’s vote. There are literally no political repercussions other than hand-wringing and a few bad opeds.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
Guy Cohen's avatar

We’ve talked about 8-0 CO tons of times but is 10-0 Washington not possible either?

Hudson Democrat's avatar

it's possible, but you run the risk of republicans picking up 3 seats in a wave, better to go with the ceiling of one republican seat, imo as I also believe is the conventional wisdom

Guy Cohen's avatar

True. Is it possible the ninth seat is a Spokane to Yakima snake?

User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
MPC's avatar

I think if an independent commission was implemented in all 50 states for state and Congressional lines, there would be 80 swing Congressional seats and all those ruby red states like Ohio, Arkansas and Mississippi wouldn't have ridiculously gerrymandered 60-79% GOP majorities in their legislatures.

AnthonySF's avatar

They should’ve done it this time!

stevk's avatar

Agreed...no clue why that was the language of the bill in the first place. Voters will either vote to overturn the commission or they won't. Unclear that the hedging makes any difference in public attitudes at all.

Zero Cool's avatar

Sounds like similar polling sentiment as what had happened heading to the 2021 CA Gubernatorial Recall Election.

MPC's avatar

I love how Virginia Dems are taking a leaf from NC Rs and going full speed ahead, a mere two days after Rs forced through ANOTHER rigged map.

anonymouse's avatar

It’s much needed. Time to take the kid gloves off.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

The only thing I'm worried about is Democratic defections, considering we need unanimity to get this done (assuming 100% attendance)

Paleo's avatar

I would assume that they wouldn't have advanced the proposal without being assured that it would pass.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

You'd think, but shit happens

Amon Greycastle's avatar

To be fair, it is only the Congressional map, not the state HoD or Senate seats, and it needs to be approved twice. Additionally, the optics of a D voting against it right before the November election where the HoD is on the ballot might persuade some reluctant Ds to support it now, and vote against it later when there are more Ds in the HoD.

stevk's avatar

Definitely. If we get a nice majority in the next session, we can let some D's in purple seats take strategic votes against it.

MPC's avatar

I hope Virginia Dems, should they succeed in revamping the Congressional maps, draw Rob Witman and Jen Kiggans out of their seats.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
MPC's avatar

Rs deserve payback after drawing Rep Davis out of his seat.

anonymouse's avatar

You can make an 8-3 D map with minimal county splitting. It’s a 9-2 map that takes more creativity.

Guy Cohen's avatar

8-2-1 is also a possibility.

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

It doesn't take that much creativity--just a willingness to have two districts split Arlington and then go out to take in some conservative areas.

Mike Boland's avatar

It looks like the Virginia Dems are going to be really great. I say that after being disappointed when several years ago they rejected the proposal by the Democratic governor to combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections. Hopefully this new bunch will do that once in power. It will boost voter turnout, save multi-millions of tax dollars which could be used for education or healthcare, and very importantly it would result in more women and more minorities being elected to local government. Up until now I have not donated to Virginia Dems but will now that they are proving to be real leaders.

Jay's avatar

I'm not sure if the timing will work, but the gerrymandering special election in Virginia should be scheduled to come after the supreme court issues a ruling on the VRA. The odds of it passing would increase if dems take advantage of the backlash gutting the VRA will create.

Diogenes's avatar

According to the Alabama constitution, is football experience obligatory for all candidates for public office? Is CTE?

bpfish's avatar

Not a lot going on in Alabama besides football and racism.

Burt Kloner's avatar

CTE is optional but the preferred choice of far too many alabamans

Mike Johnson's avatar

"Morrison echoed Walsh by tweeting, “He DEFEATED our Wall Street-backed opponent Melissa Bean in 2010, and knows she is not the fighter we need to meet this moment.”"

Very refreshing to see some Dem primary candidates leaning into this message.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Listen I welcome Joe Walsh into the party, he has probably undergone the most extreme (in a positive direction) political evolution of anybody in the Trump era, but I think it's a little yikes to celebrate a Tea Party Republican beating a Dem in 2010.

michaelflutist's avatar

Indeed. I don't see how his defeating her as a Republican shows that he knows she's the wrong Democrat for the job.

bpfish's avatar

This basically shows he thinks people in the district are too stupid to understand the nuance.

stevk's avatar

100% percent. I was already Team Bean here, but that statement just sealed it for me...

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Tbh I do still support Morrison, because LGBT representation is my strong preference. But this one line is not my favorite

Zero Cool's avatar

Walsh gave probably the most honest take on why the Tea Party was throwing Obama’s birth certificate against him while he was POTUS: It was a political strategy but not about racism. Of course, there were plenty in the base who are racist and have these views on birth certificates with people who have “funny” sounding names like Obama.

Brad Warren's avatar

Narrator: It was 100% about racism. 100%.

Zero Cool's avatar

Right but that may have been what the Tea Party originally intended even if Walsh said otherwise. I believe he was referring to what he was being told to do, not necessarily based on his own convictions.

We could also argue racism goes back to when Reagan’s rise at the national level also at the same time made him profile a typical black woman with “liabilities.”

It’s despicable no matter how you spin it. And Sarah Palin has not taken any accountability or responsibility for her actions during the 2008 presidential campaign.

Paleo's avatar

Asked why he's refused to endorse Mamdani, Hakeem Jeffries replies: "I have not refused to endorse; I have refused to articulate my position"

https://bsky.app/profile/kenklippenstein.bsky.social/post/3m3xavfxigk2v

User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
Mark's avatar

Always seemed like he'd make a swell neighbor. Not so much as a party leader.

FeingoldFan's avatar

He was next in line in leadership, I think that’s the entire reason why.

Techno00's avatar

What a joke. I fear he wouldn't be a good Speaker.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

especially given his struggles "speaking" or "articulating" on this particular issue

Tigercourse's avatar

It would almost shock me if he turned out to be a good speaker. I'm not versed enough on the house to know who would be better but this guy is just not who we need.

Zack from the SFV's avatar

He would be a better Speaker than Mike Johnson, but not as good a Speaker as Nancy Pelosi. That seems clear...

Zero Cool's avatar

Pelosi as House Speaker was blunt and honest and got House Democrats to get shit done, even under high pressure.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

He's dragging this out like it's "The Decision" but it makes him look bad the longer it drags on.

Zero Cool's avatar

Does Jeffries need to write a damn research paper or create a PowerPoint presentation?

Dude, just go to the corporate life and live comfortably! He could get paid much more than his current job as House Speaker.

michaelflutist's avatar

That's not his current job, but we get your meaning.

Zero Cool's avatar

Yeah, I was just pointing out that when it comes to leaders in the Democratic Party, we need them with:

1) Balls

2) The ability to do their job

3) No beating around the bush.

4) Get shit done

There simply is no room for compromise on all four these days.

PollJunkie's avatar

" Asked about Zohran Mamdani, Hakeem Jeffries says he's "privately communicated some of my concerns with respect to some of the views that he's expressed in terms of foreign policy." "

https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1981516047615234137

michaelflutist's avatar

The Mayor of New York doesn't have a foreign policy. (Yes, I know about pensions, but that's another matter.)

Brad Warren's avatar

Yeah, this is as annoying as when local candidates are asked, say, about abortion.

Zero Cool's avatar

When Bernie Sanders was Mayor of Burlington, VT, I don’t recall there was any direct foreign policy he was involved in.

On the other hand, Mayors in major cities like NYC, San Francisco, etc. do have relations with leaders outside of the U.S. but as a means of bringing say business investment into the city or allowing meetings to happen in the city. Since UN’s headquarters is in NYC, the Mayor can’t influence foreign policy anyway even with the UN. The State Department, White House, and Congress can.

Kevin H.'s avatar

Don't care, Mamdani didn't support Biden.

JanusIanitos's avatar

I expect party caucus leaders to be willing to endorse for prominent elections in their own backyard, especially when the democratic candidate has such odious opponents. I do not expect every member of the state legislatures to endorse presidential candidates; I doubt anyone would have cared if he had officially endorsed Biden in early/mid 2024.

Kevin H.'s avatar

Doesn't matter, he wants to blame games when it comes to endorsing then don't bother me when it's reversed.

sacman701's avatar

How hard would it be to say 'I have reservations about all of them, but I'll vote for Mamdani'?

Zero Cool's avatar

For a politician who represents Brooklyn, Jeffries is definitely not a straight shooter.

Why did he ever enter politics in the first place?

michaelflutist's avatar

Are politicians from Brooklyn known to be straight shooters? I wouldn't tend to think that as a general point about politicians in any part of New York - city or state.

Zero Cool's avatar

I would say it’s best to contrast politicians vs the residents in cities like Brooklyn.

From what I know from others I have talked to who live in Brooklyn, they have a big BS detector and can call you out on this. This is the case with Oakland as I have lived next door to the city for decades.

Of course, I also know not everyone from Brooklyn can possess the same exact personality. May vary who you talk to but since you live in NYC, you would certainly know better than me about this.

michaelflutist's avatar

New York is known for corruption and influence-peddling.

Zero Cool's avatar

There certainly is a history. NYC seems to have it worse than SF.

michaelflutist's avatar

Definitely. New Jersey, Illinois and Louisiana have historically been our competition...

John Carr's avatar

Where is New York on setting up a redraw at least for 2028? That’s a state where you could easily create two new almost safe Dem seats (Lawler’s and Maliatonokis’). For the SI seat, all you need to do is pair it with Southern Manhattan and you have a district that Harris won by high single digits. Maliatonokis (idgaf how her name is spelled) would need over 70% of the vote on SI to have a chance in such a distict.

michaelflutist's avatar

For the record, it's Nicole Malliotakis, and her last name is Greek.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

despite her pathetic attempts to pose as an italian american when she unseated Max Rose

Brad Warren's avatar

I thought it was "MallioStockTips"...

Guy Cohen's avatar

Riley and Gillen can get shored up too. Suozzi too though he doesn’t need it as much given he overperforms and shoring him up too much would come at Gillen’s expense. Ryan doesn’t really need it at all and trying to do so would hurt D chances in 17 and 19. And despite getting close at the presidential level Meng doesn’t need it at all.

Also possible to make Lean D seats in Suffolk and a Rochester to Buffalo connecter.

silverknyaz's avatar

Kathy Hochul, Carl Heastie, and Andrea Stuart-Cousins are all on board

it's happening, keep an eye on it in the next session

Mark's avatar

I never saw the district results but did Jon Tester beat Tim Sheehy in MT-01?

axlee's avatar

Yes. He won it somewhere around 2000 votes, 50-49, less than 1pt.

PollJunkie's avatar

2026 Maine Senate Democratic Primary poll by

@NRSC

(R) | 10/22-23

Graham Platner: 46%

Janet Mills: 25%

Jordan Wood: 3%

Not sure: 26%

——

Fav-Unfav (Dems)

Platner: 71-21 (+50)

Mills: 69-31 (+38)

——

"After hearing Platner’s statement defending past remarks, 45% said it made them MORE likely to support him"

——

October 22-23 | Dem n=647 LV | ±3.5

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1981746544891027651

We have our own tea party lol. The tea party actually cost the GOP winnable seats, one of which was lost in Delaware due to a self-described witch.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I think it's going to take a while for this primary to settle

Stargate77's avatar

I think Platner's numbers will only go down over time, as public knowledge of his liabilities increases.

Zero Cool's avatar

And the biggest dilemma is what happens not in the primary process but if Platner would be a Democratic Senate nominee in the general election.

Collins would have plenty to work with.

Samuel Sero's avatar

Yeah, I'm having a hard time believing that his statements make Democratic voters more likely to vote for him. Especially from an NRSC poll.

Zero Cool's avatar

If this were CA, Platner would have already been out of the race at this point.

Apparently Maine may be different but I wouldn’t assume anything about Platner’s viability at this point, especially considering he should have known better before jumping in the Senate race.

Skaje's avatar

1) Implausibly high name rec for Platner...71-21 favorable??? 2) Mills also very popular, at 69-31, but somehow only getting 25%? As the sitting governor?? 3) Come on, this is an *NRSC* poll, obviously designed to show a narrative they like, one we don't need to engage in as legitimate. There's nothing for us to learn from this other than the NRSC thinks it will make us look bad.

PollJunkie's avatar

UNH also had similar findings.

JanusIanitos's avatar

I broadly agree but I wonder if there is more latent vulnerability due to age than we're expecting. It's easy for us to assume it's not going to impact voter behavior as much as we'd think at first due to being in our own high-info bubble. But it could be that this is a detail that harms candidates a lot, especially for non-incumbent challengers.

D S's avatar

The good news is Maine has ranked choice voting, which means that should Platner win the primary, some Democratic running as an independent (Washington D.C style) can run without being a spoiler.

ehstronghold's avatar

Also let's be honest with Trump getting away with *handwaves everything*, JD Vance saying anyone on his side of politics can do no wrong, while Dems went too overboard with policing our side to the point they shrunk the tent to less than 40% of the country it's not surprising to see Platner's tattoo not an automatic campaign ender.

(Not a Platner supporter after the events of the past two weeks BTW.)

Stargate77's avatar

Here's a 10-1 map that I drew:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/95171876-858a-447a-a5f3-6fa0501ef824

Under this map, the 9th District is the only one that Youngkin won in 2021, and he won it by 58 points. McAuliffe won the 2nd and 5th Districts by less than 1%, and he won the 3rd District by 12 points. The other seven districts were McAuliffe+4 in 2021.

User's avatar
Comment removed
Oct 24, 2025
Comment removed
Guy Cohen's avatar

Dems don’t really need 5 districts in NOVA. 4 is enough, 2 each in Richmond and Hampton Roads, and the Charlottesville swing seat.

Stargate77's avatar

Oops, this was supposed to be a reply to MPC's comment.

Stargate77's avatar

Under this map, Don Beyer would likely run in the 1st or 6th District, Eugene Vindman would likely run in the 1st or 8th District, James Walkinshaw would likely run in the 8th or 11th District, and Suhas Subramanyam would likely run in the 10th District.

Guy Cohen's avatar

What are those population deviations?

Stargate77's avatar

I kept all of them below 5%.

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

I believe congressional population deviations cannot be this big. However, it shouldn't be too hard to rebalance them in a way that keeps it at least 10D-1R-1 swing.

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

Not going to lie: when opened this map and saw the 6th district, I literally laughed out loud.

You know what, though? Why the hell not!

JanusIanitos's avatar

How does Dave's determine partisan lean? There's seven districts that are ~51.5% dem. That's not a huge margin and we could lose a seat even in a decent year for us if there is candidate quality mismatch or some other events.

It's a great job getting 10 districts that favor us, but I'd prefer a more durable 9-2 map.

Stargate77's avatar

When you click the Statistics tab, it shows the results for the 2021 gubernatorial race. If you select another race or the Composite option under Data Selector, then it will show much more favorable results in the Statistics tab.

Stargate77's avatar

2021 was a low water mark for Democrats in Virginia. Any district that McAuliffe won that year should be relatively safe for us in most election cycles.

hilltopper's avatar

NJ Gov: Sherrill 52%; Ciattarelli 40%. (GQR polling 1,00 LVs)

Paleo's avatar

The 52 is believable.

Wolfpack Dem's avatar

Yeah, I am expecting 52-47, given how perpetually we get "meh" results out of NJ in this Timeline of ours.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

I think, as far as anyone ever writes about this historically, the murphy admin will be seen as well-meaning but ultimately mediocrely effective because the admin passed up on big potential achievements (like wind energy) but still suffered the blow back popularity wise. There was always going to be those opposed to windmills off the shore, but it hurts the party's brand when we are seen as both advocating for the windmills and advocating ineffectively--as it's been eight years and nothing re wind has happened. It feels born out of a very weird risk aversion borne out of the first two years of his first term spent fighting south jersey dems.

Plus, the nepotistic putative senate run hurt us, to an unknown level. All my aforementioned negativity aside I think we win by 6.3%

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

The closing argument is trying to tie Ciattarelli to high costs. Noticed this ad today:

https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1981700828194042339

Paleo's avatar

That’s basically been the ad campaign. Accusing one another of wanting to raise taxes. Occasionally Sherrill has thrown the association with Trump in, but not enough for my taste. A cautious campaign.

Jacob M.'s avatar

When it comes to Virginia and the AG's race, you might want to listen to Sam Shirazi's recent episode. One of the points he makes is that Miyares seems to have hit a ceiling in most of the recent polls at 46% or 45% and if he'll be able to get over that hump to hit 50%. It's a question of those undervotes from between the Gov and AG race. Are they more likely to go ahead and pull the all Dem lever? https://samshirazi.substack.com/p/bonus-episode-checking-on-latest

Also in international news....

It's disappointing that Japan elevated a right-wing individual to the PM role, but Ireland is electing a new president (largely ceremonial office) today with polls suggesting Catherine Connolly will win. The Guardian described her as an outspoken leftwinger. From one of the articles: "Irish presidents traditionally played quiet, symbolic roles but since 1990 Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Higgins have turned the office into a more visible platform to champion plurality, reconciliation with Northern Ireland and ethical foreign policy."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/24/ireland-votes-for-next-president-as-polls-predict-landslide-for-catherine-connolly

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/23/catherine-connolly-the-outspoken-leftwinger-set-to-be-irelands-next-president

On Oct. 29, the Netherlands will be electing a new government after the collapse of the previous coalition. There's an article about the instability of Dutch governments in recent years, but the site is currently undergoing maintenance. In case it comes back online this is the link: https://europeelects.eu/2025/10/20/five-years-three-elections-why-no-dutch-government-seems-to-last/

benamery21's avatar

Can’t read the Dutch election article, but the current government has been in caretaker status for almost 5 months, since just 11 months after being sworn in, following protracted delays in forming a coalition government, which had previously led to a 12 month caretaker government after the collapse of the prior government. In other words, the Netherlands has been under caretaker government for 17 of the past 28 months.