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GoUBears's avatar

We are very close to being able to say what the state of the judiciary will be when Trump takes office. Biden will leave office with 1 SCOTUS justice (11%), 44 circuit judges (25%), and 183 district judges (27%). Trump already has 3 SCOTUS (33%), 53 circuit (30%), and 168 district (25%). Obama still has 2 SCOTUS (22%), 35 circuit (20%), and 186 district (27%). Dubya has 2 SCOTUS (22%), 26 circuit (15%), and 79 district (12%). Clinton has 9 circuit (5%) and 17 district (3%). Poppy has 1 SCOTUS (11%), 4 circuit (2%) and 4 district (1%). Reagan has 5 circuit (3%) and 6 district (1%). That makes for partisan totals of 6-3 GOP (67%) on SCOTUS, a tie of 88-88 on the circuits with three vacancies (49%-49%-2%), and a sizeable Dem lead of 386-257 on the district courts with 37 vacancies (57%-38%-5%).

The vacancies Trump is set to inherit: The Maine seat on the 5D-0R-1v 1st circuit opened on Halloween with the retirement of an Obama appointee, and Biden's uncontroversial nominee wasn't given a vote under the 'deal' that kept Sinema and Manchin playing ball for district nominees. The 7R-6D-2v 3rd circuit will leave NJ and DE seats. The NJ seat shouldn't have opened to begin with (Obama appointee going to the private sector in June 2023), and several Dems balked at voting for the first Muslim circuit judge; the administration refused to back down and the nominee never got a vote. The DE seat will open on the 15th with the retirement of a Dubya appointee. The seat never got a nominee despite being announced in May; it seems highly unlikely that Biden would have willingly passed up the opportunity to appoint a home state judge, so I'm pretty certain the judge offered an ultimatum that made a Biden appointment dependent upon a Harris victory. Of the 37 district vacancies, 35 have two GOP senators (3 AL, 2 AK, 1 AR, 4 FL, 1 IN, 1 KS, 4 LA, 1 MS, 4 MO, 4 NC, 1 OH, 1 SC, 1 TN, 7 TX). Biden filled 33 seat that required at least one GOP blue slip, but that was largely dependent upon the timing of the vacancy: he filled 3 of 4 that opened under Trump, 25 of 32 that opened in the 117th congress, and 5 of 32 that opened in the 118th congress. There's uncertainty connected to three future vacancies that were set to occur upon confirmation of a successor. We've seen vacancies rescinded for a circuit seat in NC and district seats in NC and OH. I expect the same for a circuit seat in TN and district seats in MT and NY, the latter of which hasn't been officially announced, but we'll see. The two Dem state district judgeships left vacant: an SD CA seat that opened in 2021 saw two failed nominees, the first a critic of residency restrictions for sex offenders and the latter probably receiving a 'not qualified' ABA rating and never being withdrawn despite it being clear by June that she would fail; the second opened on SD NY on New Year's Eve after Ossoff helped vote down a nominee in July for relocating a trans woman prisoner to a women's prison.

Appointing party has become a near-perfect analog for judicial ideology, thanks to the elimination of the filibuster. Under Biden: 1 of 1 SCOTUS appointee has a Dem donation history; 17 circuit appointees have Dem donation histories while the other 27 have none; 86 district appointees have Dem donation histories, 90 have none, 4 have GOP histories, and 3 have mixed histories. The seven with GOP or split histories: Susan Bazis (D NE, Fischer and Ricketts): 4 GOP donations, $2200, 2005-2007; Kelly Rankin (D WY, Barrasso and Lummis): 7 GOP donations, $1540, 2002-2010; John David Russell (ND OK, Mullin and Lankford): $1000 to Glen Mulready for OK Insurance Commissioner, 2018; Elizabeth Coombe (ND NY, Schumer and Gillibrand): $250 to John Katko, 2014; David Leibowitz (SD FL, Rubio and Scott): 9 donations 2007-2018, $7030 to Curbelo, Fleischmann, Brian Fitzpatrick, Giuliani, and Joe Garcia, $3500 to Crist, Cicilline, and Al Lawson; John Murphy (ED PA, Toomey and Casey): 47 donations 2010-2022, $5500 to Toomey, $1359 to his law firm's winner-endorsing PAC, $850 to Dems, and $620 to other GOPers; Camela Theeler (D SD, Rounds and Thune), $500 to Jim Abbott in 2002 for SD Gov, $250 to Dusty Johnson in 2016. The GOP donations from Coombe, Theeler, and Russell may simply be personal connections, while Rankin and Bazis are clearly partisan Republicans; Leibowitz and particularly Murphy bought their way onto the courts.

As for how a second Trump term's set to impact the judiciary, the highlight is of course adding youth to the GOP SCOTUS slate, but more fundamentally, it is likely to boil down to replacing a bunch of Dubya appointees. By appointing president:

Reagan, circuit: 5 senior-eligible

Reagan, district: 6 senior-eligible, 1 vacancy

Poppy, SCOTUS: 1 senior-eligible

Poppy, circuit: 4 senior-eligible

Poppy, district: 4 senior-eligible, 1 vacancy

Clinton, circuit: 9 senior-eligible

Clinton, district: 17 senior-eligible, 5 vacancies

Dubya, SCOTUS: 2 senior-eligible

Dubya, circuit: 15 senior-eligible, 2 qualifying in 119th congress, 5 in 120th, 1 vacancy

Dubya, district: 37 senior-eligible, 12 qualifying in 119th congress, 13 in 120th, 1 future vacancy, 13 vacancies

Obama, SCOTUS: 1 senior-eligible, 1 qualifying in 119th congress

Obama, circuit: 5 senior-eligible, 8 qualifying in 119th congress, 8 in 120th, 2 vacancies

Obama, district: 24 senior-eligible, 32 qualifying in 119th congress, 39 in 120th, 2 future vacancies, 15 vacancies

Trump, circuit: 1 senior-eligible, 1 qualifying in 119th congress, 1 in 120th

Trump, district: 10 qualifying in 120th congress, 2 vacancies

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Jared Blank's avatar

The losses of Cheri Beasley in 2020 as well as Sam Ervin and Lucy Inman in 2022 sting very badly.

I’ve gotten to know Justices Ervin and Riggs and they’re both very decent and intelligent, but to Riggs’s credit, I think she understands that judges really are politicians better than any of the other judges I listed.

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