Morning Digest: Republicans are meddling in another Democratic primary. They haven't had much success.

And even when it's worked, Democrats have rarely been perturbed

State Rep. Francesca Hong, Democratic candidate for Wisconsin governor. (Credit: Francesca Hong Facebook)

Leading Off

WI-Gov

Republicans are once again meddling in a Democratic primary in the hopes of elevating a candidate they think will be easier to beat in November, but while they’ve made increasing use of the tactic this cycle, it’s seldom paid off.

The GOP’s newest target is the governor’s race in swingy Wisconsin, where five Democrats are vying for the chance to succeed Democratic incumbent Tony Evers, who opted not to seek a third term.

One candidate, though, has stood out for her left-wing views: state Rep. Francesca Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who in 2020 won a divided primary for an open seat in Madison with 28% of the vote. She’s since earned reelection twice without opposition, earning attention as an outspoken progressive.

Republicans hope that Hong’s reputation will make it easier for the likely GOP nominee, Rep. Tom Tiffany, to prevail in the general election. To that end, Right Direction Wisconsin, an affiliate of the Republican Governors Association, is spending more than $2 million to air ads pretending to attack Hong while actually seeking to boost her with Democratic voters, according to AdImpact.

The group’s spot begins with a clip of Hong saying, “We are the campaign that will actually go back to our progressive roots” before a narrator derides her as “liberal Francesca Hong.”

The ad then says Hong “opposes President Trump’s deportation policies, and she wants to abolish ICE,” adding that she “even supports banning Wisconsin law enforcement from cooperating with ICE.”

While the narrator says that these policies “will weaken public safety and make us less safe,” they’re doubtless popular with Wisconsin Democrats: A March poll of the state from Marquette University found ICE with a remarkable 96% disapproval rating among Democrats, while just 1% said they approved of the agency.

Polling of the Democratic primary, however, has been scant, with no recent surveys from outfits with established track records. The success of candidates like Hong in primaries elsewhere, though, gives her a real shot at winning her party’s nomination on Aug. 11, especially given the split field.

That field, however, has shrunk lately, and could grow smaller still. In just the last few weeks, two contenders, former Evers Cabinet member Missy Hughes and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, both dropped out and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez.

But Rodriguez’s own bid is on life support. Over the weekend, she announced that she had fired her longtime campaign manager for alleged financial mismanagement after a $1 million ad buy failed to launch as planned, and even the candidate has struggled to say how much money she actually has.

On Monday, Rodriguez told reporters she had about $200,000 in the bank, but new fundraising disclosures covering the first six months of the year that were due Wednesday showed her with just $35,000.

The next day, though, her campaign filed an amended report saying she had $643,000 available, only to tell the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jessie Opoien on Thursday evening that the $35,000 figure was correct and that Rodriguez would amend her filings again.

Hong, meanwhile, reported bringing in more than $700,000—the second most of any contender—while having a little over $400,000 left for the stretch run after spending some $430,000. The leader was Rodriguez’s predecessor, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who spent more than $1.1 million after raising about $840,000 during the first half of the year. Barnes had around $200,000 in his coffers.

The two other candidates in the race are Joel Brennan, another former Evers Cabinet official, and state Sen. Kelda Roys. Brennan raised more than $666,000 and spent almost $860,000, and finished June with almost $360,000 on hand. Roys brought in the least with $527,000 and shelled out more than $454,000, but she ended the period with over $400,000 in available cash—far more than Rodriguez.

Despite the massive setback, Rodriguez has nonetheless enjoyed the most air support, according to AdImpact, which says she’s benefited from $1 million in advertising on her behalf.

That’s thanks chiefly to an $820,000 buy by an obscure group called Wisconsin Forward Fund. However, a planned $2 million investment by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association announced last year never seems to have materialized.

Barnes has also received an infusion of outside help from a different mystery super PAC called Impossible Until It’s Done, which said it was spending $500,000 to boost him. (The name is a reference to a quote attributed to Nelson Mandela, after whom Barnes is named.)

Hong, by contrast, is the only candidate who has yet to purchase ad time, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. But the RGA’s intervention is set to make her the top presence on the airwaves.

The topic of those ads, though—Hong’s hostility toward ICE—puts her well within the mainstream. A national poll from YouGov released in March, for instance, showed that 50% of Americans support abolishing ICE while just 39% were opposed.

However, Hong has expressed other opinions that are less likely to play well in a perennial swing state—opinions that Republicans would likely elevate if she’s the Democratic nominee.

In May, for instance, she received criticism from fellow Democrats for saying at a campaign event that “my perfect world would be a world without prisons.” She’s also posted on social media in the past that she favors “defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police.”

When asked by CNN if she still supports police abolition, Hong said in a statement, “While I envision a world where public safety is not synonymous with law enforcement, I recognize that this paradigm shift is a very long term vision and my focus is building systems of care for now and for our future.”

So far, though, the GOP has not had much success in its many attempts to meddle in Democratic primaries this cycle. According to a tally by The Downballot, Republicans have sought to interfere in 14 races that could host competitive general elections, but their preferred Democrats have won their primaries just three times. (One other contest remains ongoing.)

And even then, Democrats have largely been unperturbed. Two Democratic House candidates who were promoted by Republicans, Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District and Denise Powell in Nebraska’s 2nd, were quickly embraced by the DCCC after their victories. Only Matt Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd has remained frozen out by the committee, but even there, the two sides appear to be engaged in rapprochement.

That stands in contrast to the previous midterms in 2022, when Democrats meddled in 17 GOP primaries and succeeded in eight—and then won all eight contests that November.

That year, only Democrats pursued this strategy, while this cycle, it’s largely been the province of Republicans, but the GOP still has a long way to go before it can show whether the effort has been worth the cost.

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House

WI-01

Milwaukee Alderman Peter Burgelis, who launched a bid against Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st District at the end of April, announced on Wednesday that he was dropping out of the race and endorsing emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman.

Ballot Measures

WA Ballot

A measure to repeal Washington state’s new millionaire’s tax has qualified for the November ballot after opponents submitted more than 500,000 signatures from voters.

The law, which imposes a tax of 9.9% on household income in excess of $1 million starting in 2028, was passed by Democrats in the legislature and signed in March by Gov. Bob Ferguson, who has vowed to defeat the repeal initiative. Officials estimate the tax would raise $3 billion in revenues per year from 20,000 households, or less than 0.7% of households in the state.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen (D): Data for Progress for American Priorities (pro-Abdul El-Sayed):

  • El-Sayed: 54, Haley Stevens: 41.

• AZ-05 (R): Remington Research Group for Daniel Keenan:

  • Keenan: 42, Mark Lamb: 40.

  • Unreleased June poll: Lamb 43-35.