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Dec 15
bpfish's avatar

These are not the types of topics that get covered here, and you spamming the comments won't change that.

MPC's avatar

Just wish Montana was more purple, ie more statewide Democratic wins. Voters are comfortable with electing centrist judges to their state Supreme Court, but Republicans want to politicize judicial races like they do in NC, OH, GA and elsewhere.

Buckeye73's avatar

Unfortunately they are now a magnet area for right wingers leaving California, Oregon and Washington.

MPC's avatar

I thought Idaho was that magnet area.

Henrik's avatar

It is, but MT is to a lesser extent

Zero Cool's avatar

Yes, as a state, it is. Although cities like Boise are more friendly to liberals than other parts of the state, they have an overwhelmingly white population. As of the 2020 Census, 80% of Boise residents are white, even while there's slow progression of non-white races in the city due to startup and tech activity.

Idaho is quite conservative and won't be expected to change in the future. Low cost of living by contrast to states California is a great incentive. As a state, it also is considerably low profile in the news and doesn't get that much attention. For conservatives & right wingers who want to stay away from the "drama," Idaho is perfect for them.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/boisecitycityidaho/AGE775224

Henrik's avatar

Boise has gotten quite expensive since Covid based on adjustments for cost of living, granted

Zero Cool's avatar

Just examining available homes for sale on Zillow, in the city itself most of them are less than $1,000,000. Downtown Boise itself seems to be where most homes are expensive although through Zillow, there's one for around $1.85 million. Most of the expensive housing though in this part of the city seems to be luxury housing, which can attract transplants who aren't by default conservative. Usually through work-related opportunities. Tech workers certainly gravitate towards luxury housing. In San Francisco, prices are far beyond this for a typical person to afford.

From a cost of living perspective, if Boise has gotten more expensive since COVID, that still doesn't mean by contrast to living in California that the incentives are not there. Conservatives I would say are far more pissed about what they perceive to be more "activist governance" than strictly cost of living.

Of course, I've also seen Arlington, VA, which is closer to the action of DC than anywhere else in VA, to feature much cheaper homes than what you see in Los Angeles, SF, etc.

PollJunkie's avatar

Idaho is the only state whose Black and Hispanic residents lean Republican in Civiqs Trump polling.

Zero Cool's avatar

I am not surprised. Just because we see non-white voter demographics in red states doesn’t mean by default such voters are going to gravitate towards Democrats.

I have an uncle who lives in Meridian and the last time I visited him there was back in 2000. However, even when I went to Boise I always got the impression it was more white than most cities in the Bay Area. That plus the conservative way the state is run and the ideology makes it harder for there to be any real change. Governor Brad Little was not anti-COVID vaccine and was fine in managing the pandemic but that’s as close as you can get to being on the side of Democrats when it comes to common sense policy.

Mark's avatar

Where are they all going to? Kalispell? Because Missoula and Bozeman are the fastest-growing areas and they're blue and getting bluer.

PollJunkie's avatar

Bozeman moved to the right in 2024 and arrivals to Bozeman leaned conservative according to polling firms.

MPC's avatar

I was looking at the seat margin that flipped during the 2010 shellacking -- specifically for the General Assembly races in North Carolina. They were mainly mirror flips -- in the state Senate, Democrats went from a 30-20 supermajority in 2010 to 19-31 superminority in 2011. Whereas for the state House, which went from a 68-52 majority to 52-67 minority (with one independent legislator).

And even with the gerrymandering after the 2020 census, there's still potential for massive upsets next year if R turnout craters (akin to Dems staying home in 2010) and cementing the governor's vetoes. It would be massive luck if they won a bare majority, and things would have to get REALLY bad for them to gain back a supermajority.

Cheryl Johnson's avatar

⬆️ 'And even with the gerrymandering after the 2020 census, there's still potential for massive upsets next year if R turnout craters (akin to Dems staying home in 2010) and cementing the governor's vetoes."

I'm in Mecklenburg County and we are taking another shot at kicking Traitor Tricia (Cotham) out of the NCGA next year. She barely squeaked by with a victory in 2024 in a year very favorable for Republicans. (THE NC GOP also rewarded her with as Red a district as they could finagle. FYI, Meck Dems and/or Indivisible Charlotte has already started canvassing for this race!

I'm encouraged by the results in my county (and all across NC) in the municipal elections. We had good results flipping mayors and city council/board of commissioners races blue!

One of my favorite forms of activism is writing postcards. (it is easier on my old bones!) I'm already getting started here in NC with Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) to register new Democratic voters and with Postcards to Swing States "News Boosting" postcards to reach out to Low Info voters and persuade them to vote for Democrats (https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/).

MPC's avatar

All the Wake- and Mecklenburg-area GOP legislators are going to be wiped out next year if the wave is as potent as 2018. (Especially Traitor Tricia and Erin Pare in Holly Springs.) I think with the mayoral races going to Dems both in Graham and Burlington, even Phil Berger's righthand woman Amy Galey could lose her seat to the right candidate. (Alamance County is getting bluer each year.)

And the remaining three conservadem legislators (Masjid, Cunningham and Willingham) need to be voted out as well.

I'm crossing my fingers for a 2010 sized flipping for the legislature. It would be well deserved -- and if that happens, Dems need to move fast and hard. Phil Berger needs to be punished BIG TIME, as well as the traitors in the state judiciary.

PollJunkie's avatar

Which progressives with a good chance have stayed off the airwaves and then lost? Are there any such examples?

David Nir's avatar

The reason we recalled the Omar example when the Kat Abu story popped is because it's so unusual to see someone do something like that!

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

New York City releases write-in vote totals. I'm familiar with most of the names except for Sabrina Carpenter and Anna Wintour.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DSSn2KojfiZ/?igsh=NnJjZWZqYXA4bnB2

Julius Zinn's avatar

Sabrina Carpenter is a singer, Anna Wintour is a media mogul of Vogue fame

Hudson Democrat's avatar

this is a good reminder that even on a site like this, full of like minded folk, there is still way more cultural siloing than there used to be. No knock on anyone, I only know who anna wintour is because my msn feed made it seem like the pope died when she retired.

michaelflutist's avatar

You never saw The Devil Wears Prada. I recommend it.

MPC's avatar

That is a hilarious movie.

the lurking ecologist's avatar

Aaron is obviously not following Sabrina Carpenter's balladeering with Domingo on Saturday Night Live

Mike in MD's avatar

Anyone unfamiliar with Sabrina Carpenter hasn’t listened to top 40/CHR radio in at least two years (something I still do and I’m well above its target age), and that’s not the only place in pop culture where she’s been seemingly omnipresent lately.

michaelflutist's avatar

I rarely listen to top-40 radio, but I know who she is. Of course, I'm a musician, so I have some at least vague professional interest in knowing who and what is hot (vague, though, because I am not trying to produce hits).

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

My music tastes strongly lean towards genres like country (1990s and earlier), heartland rock, classic rock, and, to a lesser extent, instrumental. I thought Post Malone and Karl Malone were the same person until a couple of days ago, so that gives you a general idea of how unaware I am of the current state of the music industry for the most part.

Zero Cool's avatar

I'd say the one person who made a write-in vote for Luigi Mangione should get off the internet and get serious therapy, especially considering Zohran Mamdani is as a Democratic Socialist more receptive to the voter's likely anger towards the healthcare system.

The voter who cast the write-in for Leslie Knope might have very well been binge watching Parks & Recreation for a whole day prior to election day. I'm guessing this voter is a registered Democrat because Knope herself on the show is staunchly pro-Democrat and worships Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, etc.

JoeyJoeJoe1980's avatar

I do recall that in the premiere episode, Leslie had pictures of Hillary and of Sarah Palin on her desk. Remember it was 2009.

Mike in MD's avatar

Less than a year after Amy Poehler and Tina Fey’s parody of them, which was so brilliant that lots of people think Palin actually said “ I can see Russia from my house!”

Zero Cool's avatar

I’ll have to rewatch the premiere episode to catch what you’re referring.

I would think Ron Swanson would have a picture of Sarah Palin in his office as he’s a vocal Libertarian, free country living manager of the parks department, which represents his worst enemy:

Government

Swanson would fit right in if he reported to Palin in any government capacity.

Mike in MD's avatar

“Progressives” who cheer Luigi Mangione only help those on the right who viewed Charlie Kirk as an excuse to try to silence dissent (see Kimmel, Jimmy) or think that Rob Reiner somehow had it coming due to his politics.

There are plenty of more effective ways to advocate for better and more affordable healthcare, or progressive causes overall, than trying to make a violent criminal into some sort of populist hero.

Zero Cool's avatar

Being that this is just one write-in vote for Luigi Mangione, I am not going to jump to conclusions about Mangione supporters in general (or former supporters) and what their political affiliation is right now.

Last year, sure, it could have been conceivable that lots of supporters of Mangione were progressive. However, Zohran Mamdani got elected as NYC Mayor just weeks ago, which may have just changed the trajectory for younger progressives and liberals living in the city.

Mamdani did speak to frustrations with those living in NYC about the cost of living even if healthcare wasn’t the specific issue they supported him for. I think they’re disillusioned about the system. They refer to it as the “deep state.”

Julius Zinn's avatar

https://1819news.com/news/item/will-ainsworth-for-senate-in-2026-race-seems-wide-open-right-now

On the headline item, looking at the Facebook post Will Ainsworth attached, most of the replies seem to be going towards Jared Hudson. I'm not familiar with Jared Hudson but saw that he won the latest poll. Does he appear to be the frontrunner?

Techno00's avatar

MA-05:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2025/12/15/how-the-healthcare-fight-will-hit-home-00690442

Former Waltham city councilor Jonathan Paz is challenging Rep. Katherine Clark in the Dem primary, focused on what appears to be a generational change argument.

Marcus Graly's avatar

Clark represents MA-05.

Techno00's avatar

Corrected, thanks.

Burt Kloner's avatar

Is everyone aware of trump's absolutely disgusting remarks about Rob Reiner and his wife being murdered ? I won't post any link but you can find it easily enough. Waiting for Leavitt to defend this.

Paleo's avatar

There's been some fake Trump posts floating around the internet recently, but I guess this one is genuine. Typical for the piece of shit that he is.

Julius Zinn's avatar

It is genuine, unfortunately. Rep. Massie called him and the administration out for it in a separate tweet.

Burt Kloner's avatar

and MTG and Lawler to a lesser extent

Tigercourse's avatar

It's somewhat difficult to capture just what a wretched piece of garbage Donald Trump is, or to even come close to quantifying the damage he has done to the soul of this country. He is a sui generis monster.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

the minds of paul weyrich and co couldn't have dreamed of a more effective wrecking ball to the liberal post war order

Henrik's avatar

Seriously. JD Vance is a horrible human being and I can’t picture him writing something half that grotesque. Sui generis indeed.

But maybe I’m giving Vance too much credit

sacman701's avatar

Vance is a nasty, opportunistic edgelord but he's basically an adult and he doesn't have the pathological compulsion to make everything about himself.

Henrik's avatar

Exactly my point

Mark's avatar
Dec 15Edited

Most troubling is that nearly half of the country is such a poor judge of character that they either don't see it, don't care about it, or can't connect the dots of why elevating a man of his stature to this level of power is ruinous.

bpfish's avatar

The correct answer is that they do see it, and they like it.

sacman701's avatar

Some of them do. Many of them don't really follow politics and think all politicians are sketchy.

Mark's avatar

Do you really think 49+% of the country likes to see someone boast about somebody's murder? Or try to extort hundreds of millions from taxpayers as reparations for his past criminal trials? Or prevent states and cities from reining in Big Tech's AI power grab?

Burt Kloner's avatar

no, but 35%+ will go along with whatever trump says, no matter what he says.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

Half the people who bother to vote but the point is valid.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

There is no floor for the rapist felon.

ArcticStones's avatar

The floor needs a trap door.

Amon Greycastle's avatar

Leave it to Trump to take an easy layup to "look presidential" and blow it. If only he believed his dogshit approval ratings.

michaelflutist's avatar

I'll try to avoid the pollution, but someone will probably tell me what he said.

MPC's avatar

Even some of his MAGA supporters are criticizing him for the Reiner comments.

michaelflutist's avatar

So (a) they must be unusually bad and (b) they're probably secretly not that MAGA and deviating somewhat because he's a lame duck with 30-something% popularity. (Autocorrect offered the possibility of "lame fuck" to me, which is great and maybe a phrase we should adopt for Trump!)

Zero Cool's avatar

James Woods for instance came out praising Rob Reiner and struck a tone of uniting instead of being divisive. This was because he knew Reiner was advocating for Woods in his high profile role in Ghosts of Mississippi.

Zero Cool's avatar

It's revolting but here's where it gets really too close to home:

Rob Reiner's wife Michelle Reiner took Trump's profile picture featured on the Art of the Deal.

https://people.com/michele-reiner-photographed-donald-trump-art-of-the-deal-cover-11869558

ArcticStones's avatar

The 2016 election was a national referendum on Decency – and Decency lost. In 2024, American voters double down on their embrace of Rage and Evil.

Cheryl Johnson's avatar

⬆️"Several Republicans who actually do want to serve in the Senate are already competing in the May 19 primary. The field includes Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson; state Attorney General Steve Marshall; Rep. Barry Moore; wealthy businessman Rodney Walker; and Morgan Murphy, a former White House aide who used to work for Tuberville."

That doesn't sound like "wide open" to me....

Hudson Democrat's avatar

in the sense that very few voters, much less myself could recognize these names (other than moore) much less pick them out of a lineup

michaelflutist's avatar

Attorney General is a big deal even if you couldn't pick him out of a lineup.

ArcticStones's avatar

That’s precisely where a certain Attorney General in Texas ought to be: in a lineup!

Cheryl Johnson's avatar

That is why you do some research before entering the voting booth.

There are always some "unserious" candidates who raise no money and do no campaigning, but a state representative and the state's AG seem legit to me.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

absolutely, my comment's attempted point was to say someone that is an LG doesn't need to worry about a host of characters in a primary that folks on an election website analyzing elections don't know much about. Only moore has a federal warchest, and only Marshall has won statewide.

bpfish's avatar

Barry Moore is a member of the U.S. House, not the Alabama House.

Members of the House and statewide officials (like AGs) are basically what we normally see in a typical Senate race. There's no clear frontrunner yet, but one of these two is likely to win the primary, unless their god-king anoints someone else.

Burt Kloner's avatar

the overwhelming majority of voters do not do research before entering the voting booth and never will...it is usually simply name rec and/or party affiliation and it will never change.

MPC's avatar

TACO slumping out to a "rally" in Rocky Mount this Friday to prop up his candidate Michael Whatley.

https://www.wral.com/news/local/president-trump-speak-rocky-mount-friday-december-2025/

Neither these guys have read the room. His last couple of "rallies" weren't even half full.

Julius Zinn's avatar

I've been to Rocky Mount and have extended family in nearby Tarboro. It's not going to go the way he wants it to.

Mike in MD's avatar

I’m sure that will scare Roy Cooper out of the race, or at least seal it up for Whatley. /s

Of course he’d probably have preferred to appear for daughter in law Lara, who I think would be DOA or close to it in the general if she had schlepped up from Florida and was nominated. Whatley also starts as an underdog but at least isn’t as obviously tied to an unpopular president and doesn’t have to carpetbag.

MPC's avatar

Whatley and his dark money PACs are going to hit Gov Cooper with their greatest hits (socialism, Mamdani’s buddy, crime, open borders). And it’s not going to stick.

I’m not saying Cooper will cruise to victory but he is a known quantity in our state with solid crossover appeal. And with voters yearning to pay back the GOP, if he wins by 3 points or more next year it’s a landslide here.

axlee's avatar

The line used to be running to be the third Senator of MA. Lol

anonymouse's avatar

Whatley was literally chair of the RNC. He’s as tied to Trump as one can get, about on par with blood relative.

Zero Cool's avatar

We really are going to see a House race in Utah unlike anything we've seen before.

Now we have six Democratic candidates running. Besides Eva Lopez Chavez, Luis Villarreal is the other Hispanic candidate in the race.

Julius Zinn's avatar

Who could be the frontrunner? I'd put it between McAdams and the two state senators, and would say Blouin over Riebe

Zero Cool's avatar

At this point, I wouldn't even venture to say McAdams would be the frontrunner as I don't think there's been much in the way of polls just yet.

McAdams does have name recognition as having served in the previous UT-04 from unseating the late Mia Love and serving as Mayor of Salt Lake City. Him having gone undercover as a homeless person to find more on how homeless shelters were operating and treating the homeless was bold.

But there was far less competition that McAdams had to deal with back in 2018 before the primary ended. Now with him facing five other opponents in the primary race next year, it's going to be challenging, particularly as he's not the most liberal candidate. As discussed here before, Salt Lake City is not the same as Salt Lake County. SLC is quite liberal, very much on par with Berkeley. It after all elected stauchly anti-war and pro-environment Mayor Rocky Anderson for two terms during most of Bush Jr's presidency.

Luis Villarreal is probably the lesser known of all the candidates but he comes from a union worker family. Instinctively, I don't think he'll win the primary by comparison to the resources the rest of the candidates do but having a pro-union Congressman representing Salt Lake City would be quite interesting.

Blouin could get momentum from Bernie's endorsement but it remains to be seen. The primary isn't held until June 23rd so there's still time.

PollJunkie's avatar

Blouin seems to be a cool guy and would be a unique congressmember who combines Squad politics with Abundance agenda.

Julius Zinn's avatar

He might as well prepare for a possible defeat in this environment

Zero Cool's avatar

Huizenga serves a R+3 Lean GOP District so yeah, MI-04 is ripe as a pickup opportunity for Democrats.

I’m sure his strategy for winning re-election is, you guessed it, stay the course. Really inspiring politician!

Techno00's avatar

Oh good lord.

Tarrant County Judge:

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/12/15/marc-veasey-withdraws-from-tarrant-county-judge-race-2026/

Rep. Marc Veasey dropped out of this race after all. One wonders why he even attempted it in the first place and left us with our current situation in TX-30.

Kildere53's avatar

Do we even have a candidate at all in the Tarrant County Judge race?

Julius Zinn's avatar

County commissioner Alisa Simmons

Kevin H.'s avatar

What is going on with this guy?

PollJunkie's avatar

Maybe got a nice lobbying gig?

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

MN-Sen - Former NBC Sports football sideline reporter turned right-wing commentator Michele Tafoya is considering a run as a Republican per Awful Announcing, which, given they only cover politics when there's a sports media connection in some way, appears to be completely unaware that Tina Smith is not seeking re-election:

https://awfulannouncing.com/politics/michele-tafoya-reportedly-considering-run-for-us-senate.html

If they win their respective nominations, I'd pay a ton of money to watch a debate between Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya, to be honest. Also, Republicans, especially pre-Trump, have used a lot of anti-celebrity rhetoric, yet Republicans are far more likely to push celebrity candidates than Democrats are.

Mike Johnson's avatar

Tafoya is the type of celebrity candidate who will have many of her former colleagues listed on her opponents' donor reports.