Fascinating that Nirav Shah is mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate in Maine. Shah did a terrific job as Director for the Maine CDC during the pandemic, gaining wide respect from Republicans as well as Democrats. He was no-nonsense and facts-oriented.
This I do not know. That said, Nirav Shah struck me as a highly competent technocrat during his briefings as head of our stated CDC. And I do not mean that in any negative sense of the term.
I sure wish someone from that crowd would make the jump over to the Senate primary, though. If the discussion this fall is about Platner's tattoos or Mills's age (or really anything other than how bad Collins is), I strongly suspect that Collins wins again.
I wish he had run for Senate. I think that kind of stuff helps at the margins but isn't going to catapult you into first place by itself. You are from New Jersey, so tell me if I'm wrong, but I thought the last few statewide candidates backed by the major unions have kind of flopped?
He's had two wide open opportunities in ME-SEN & ME-02 and passed them up to likely end up in last place for governor. Clearly doesn't have the best political instincts and probably wouldn't have done well in either the Senate or House races.
I'd cut him some slack; maybe he just really doesn't want to be in Congress. You could argue that people like him have a duty to run since the country is in such a bad place, but I have a ton of sympathy for people who don't want to run for/be in Congress. It's honestly one of the worst jobs out there and I wouldn't hold it against his political instincts if he'd rather run a longshot campaign for governor over a more promising campaign for Congress.
I looked him up and read about his stint in Illinois, which I think will be a problem. Having dem senators Durbin & Duckworth both call for his resignation at the time is going to come up. He doesn't seem to have strong ties to Maine either and I remember how this hurt Sara Gideon because she was born & raised in Rhode Island.
The news came too late in the morning, but Alexander Vindman is entering the Democratic primary in FL to face Sen Ashley Moody in the special U.S. Senate race this year.
He could be a really great recruit and fundraiser. Trump has been long underwater in Florida approval polls. He's gonna rake in millions from MSNBC resist liberals and that's great news to compete in a media market like Florida's.
I think he’s the right candidate for Florida. He’s fought for this country, stood up against the corrupt lawlessness of the Trump regime and comes off as moderate enough to maybe peel off some R voters.
See I worry his name being so involved in a Trump impeachment uniquely mobilizes Republican voters against him. And voters forget there was a Ukraine impeachment at all and will be easily led into thinking it was the insurrection one. Maybe a bit irrational.
True. But considering how fast and far TACO’s approval ratings plummeted over the last year, enough voters might be tired of the FL GOP to vote for Jolly and Vindman.
I’m trying to be measured because FL has let me down over the last several cycles. With the exception of the Miami and Jacksonville mayoral elections.
I just hope he uses the money tsunami that's coming his way to build up the party rather than blanket the state in ads. I'm highly skeptical that anyone can win here, so it'd probably do more good for him to use his profile to give the Florida party a shot in the arm than focus solely on his own race.
I don't agree much with him, but Matt Yglesias has been right that we needed the right recruits to compete in Obama era swing states like Iowa and Ohio and, 2018 and 2020's reddish purple states like Texas and Florida to put an end to Trump's tyranny.
Strongly disagree. This is not the time for building bridges to a future that we are not guaranteed to have. His only priority should be winning the Senate seat. The state party will naturally build up if we were able to win a major race in the state again.
This is the kind of candidate profile we need for a shocking upset in a now red state. Military hero, high media profile with his brother in Congress already raising gobs more cash than any other Democratic incumbent. Likely R, not Safe anymore imo. I’m excited to see what he can do in the only reach state we didn’t really have a strong Senate candidate for in the midterms. Our field is set now with both reach states and swing ones having 1 or more good candidates running in.
The article says, "The two people who described her changed launch plans said they expect the senator to formally launch before next Tuesday." So assuming they're right, it would be sometime BEFORE a week from today.
Will be interesting to see how current events in MN affect the race. We have a long-time, centrist, go-along-to-get-along politician not known for making waves on a glide-path to the governor's mansion while the state is under an unprecedented attack. Not saying she can't meet the moment, but I think voters are going to want confirmation of that. She's been having a great time going to hockey games (and posting about it on social media) while her constituents are being brutalized.
Good for Madel. But it’s technically not “retribution,” which implies that the punishment is justified, penalty for an actual wrong committed. What Trump and his minions are doing is meting out punishment to anyone who opposed him or his extreme right-wing agenda. It’s vindictive vengefulness, as well as an extortive tactic to instill fear and force compliance.
Punchbowl News: Crockett supporter hints ads attacking Talarico are coming
During a private donor call, a top supporter of Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Texas) Senate run said the campaign is planning to start attacking state Rep. James Talarico on the air.
“On the paid communication side, [Crockett is] going to have a robust program with some very strong ads that take advantage of the positive messaging, but also allow her to present some information to the electorate — some contrast information about her record and her opponent’s record,” Lee said.
Here’s more from Lee during the call:
“And because her opponent is somewhat less well-known, people do need to hear certain information so they can make an informed decision … The other candidate needs to go through the same vetting.”
Yes, I agree in most cases, but I do think in regards to this case of ICE specifically, it’s plausible that Platner’s attacking Mills on it because of the MN murders that literally just happened, instead of starting an attack right now because he’s behind. The reasoning behind why Platner’s attacking Mills now doesn’t seem to be at all clear to me. Smart politicians use unexpected situations to their advantage in campaigns, it could very well just be caused from that instead of Platner feeling worried he’s behind Mills (though I think he is atm fwiw).
If there was ever a campaign for the DSCC to blacklist consultants, it’s this one. Such a clear sign of a lack of morals and nous from her advisors that need to be stripped out of the party.
MD redistricting: I appreciate the aggressive new map, but one of my only gripes about it was the unnecessary split of Frederick County. That county is basically now solidly blue against anyone except Larry Hogan and only seems to be getting bluer every cycle. You can put get the leftover 250,000 people from MontCo and leave MD-08 entirely within MontCo. MD-06 would still be safe in everything but a 2014-style wave, and we'd already have lost the House anyway if we're facing a year like that.
I appreciate it because it makes MD-06 a bit bluer. With the added touch of putting its incumbent and predecessor-turned-challenger actually in the district. Since 2012 none of the Dems elected there (the Delaneys and Trone) have lived in the district--not that it's particularly important, as voters didn't care in the last two cycles when GOP candidate Neil Parrott tried to make that an issue.
Funny how Bill Ferguson was apparently OK with the current version and is now moaning about several Democratic districts potentially flipping in the new map. (Which won't happen this, and possibly any, year under either map.)
I think there was one district (MD-03?) that was only made like Harris + 9. That can easily be bumped up to like Harris + 15 or so by unpacking the Harris + 50/60 MD-04 and MD-07.
It’s easy to draw MD-07 to take in the Republican leaning parts of Baltimore County around Dundalk, Middle River, Ilchester, and that red precinct in Pikeville. That part of Baltimore County voted for Trump by a margin over 20% and about 15,000 votes. That allows you to draw MD-02 and MD-03 as pretty compact and safe seats at Harris +15 apiece.
Their only option is to try and fire up the MAGA base (which they know doesn't like to turn out when Trump's off the ballot, even if they won't admit it).
I think that was just Missouri continuing on its trajectory toward becoming a fully red state, rather than evidence of a surge of MAGA voters in a midterm. We were lucky to have McCaskill in MO as long as we did.
Could RNC chair Joe Gruters simultaneously serve in Congress while making a jump from the state Senate? State Rep. Michael Owen could be another successor.
In theory yes, but he’s already said he won’t. I also think that era’s a bit passed for the national committee especially. It’s too big a job to also serve as a federal elected or governor.
That’s the 2nd fairly safe in neutral years Republican incumbent in Florida who has retired in a week. They either know 2026 is going to be a bloodbath for their party or they’re worried about losing re-election.
True, though I suspect they’d not be retiring if Earles Sears and Ciattarelli as well as the GOP state executive office candidates won in 2025 elections and special elections showed no bump over 2024 results for Democrats. So I think it at least played some part in their decision.
Political texting is completely out of control. I've gotten texts from _5 different phone numbers_ for Alex Vindman today. The first text woke me up. What the fuck?!!!
It may take some time/effort to implement on your device, but most smartphones can be set to only "ring" or make noise only when someone from a designated contacts list calls or messages you. All other contacts remain on silent or vibrate. You set the contacts list you want it to remaining ringing for, it could be just immediate family/friends, or more broad like work contacts etc..
putting this in place on my android has saved me many many nights of sleep. As far as the amount of texts youre getting, willing to be that some sort of executive meeting for Vindman finalized their plan. "do we have our email and phone lists ready? Lets get this going". Multiple lists, many with overlapping #s/emails/voter info are activated, and boom, you get 5 texts.
Put your phone on do not disturb mode and turn your sound off. Or set texts to vibrate/silent mode. That’ll prevent any unpleasant awakenings in the future.
That said, you’ll probably be happy with that text bombardment when Vindman announces raising insane amounts of money for his campaign on day 1.
Vinnie Brand, comedian and owner of the Stress Factory Comedy Club, is considering challenging Sen. Cory Booker as a Republican. He does not stand a chance.
TX-30 frontrunner and pastor Frederick Haynes III and tech executive and very longshot progressive TX-33 candidate Zeeshan Hafeez have endorsed each other. Huh.
Progressive candidate Jane Kim has received a number of union endorsements, including the the California Federation of Teachers, the California Teachers Association, and SEIU California.
Fascinating that Nirav Shah is mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate in Maine. Shah did a terrific job as Director for the Maine CDC during the pandemic, gaining wide respect from Republicans as well as Democrats. He was no-nonsense and facts-oriented.
He seems to be doing well...these last 2 polls have shown him leading the primary field by a lot
Is he running on a technocratic platform?
This I do not know. That said, Nirav Shah struck me as a highly competent technocrat during his briefings as head of our stated CDC. And I do not mean that in any negative sense of the term.
I also used the term positively. For example, Carney is a technocrat.
Agreed! We’re on the same page.
Memories of the "technocratic government" that Italy had after Berlusconi imploded in 2011.
I sure wish someone from that crowd would make the jump over to the Senate primary, though. If the discussion this fall is about Platner's tattoos or Mills's age (or really anything other than how bad Collins is), I strongly suspect that Collins wins again.
100%. The filing deadline is March 15th, so there's still time.
Looking at Troy Jackson continuing to hang out somewhere around last place....
which given his massive amount of labor support and ground game... color me doubtful
I wish he had run for Senate. I think that kind of stuff helps at the margins but isn't going to catapult you into first place by itself. You are from New Jersey, so tell me if I'm wrong, but I thought the last few statewide candidates backed by the major unions have kind of flopped?
He seems like a good balance of Platner and Mills, having credibility with the working class without making the establishment clutch pearls.
Hell, I'd even take someone like Matt Dunlap at this point (if no one is willing to cross over from the gubernatorial primary).
He's had two wide open opportunities in ME-SEN & ME-02 and passed them up to likely end up in last place for governor. Clearly doesn't have the best political instincts and probably wouldn't have done well in either the Senate or House races.
I'd cut him some slack; maybe he just really doesn't want to be in Congress. You could argue that people like him have a duty to run since the country is in such a bad place, but I have a ton of sympathy for people who don't want to run for/be in Congress. It's honestly one of the worst jobs out there and I wouldn't hold it against his political instincts if he'd rather run a longshot campaign for governor over a more promising campaign for Congress.
I looked him up and read about his stint in Illinois, which I think will be a problem. Having dem senators Durbin & Duckworth both call for his resignation at the time is going to come up. He doesn't seem to have strong ties to Maine either and I remember how this hurt Sara Gideon because she was born & raised in Rhode Island.
Sam Wang would make an excellent Congressman! I wish him luck with his candidacy for New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District.
The news came too late in the morning, but Alexander Vindman is entering the Democratic primary in FL to face Sen Ashley Moody in the special U.S. Senate race this year.
https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/01/27/whistleblower-alexander-vindman-to-seek-florida-democratic-nomination-for-senate/
Here's his launch video:
https://x.com/AVindman/status/2016105590653669438?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTXvAsUwrvE "Patriot"
He could be a really great recruit and fundraiser. Trump has been long underwater in Florida approval polls. He's gonna rake in millions from MSNBC resist liberals and that's great news to compete in a media market like Florida's.
I think he’s the right candidate for Florida. He’s fought for this country, stood up against the corrupt lawlessness of the Trump regime and comes off as moderate enough to maybe peel off some R voters.
It's going to be really hard to portray a Soviet Jewish refugee, war hero and veteran as a socialist.
Yeah, hopefully his history as a refugee (escaping from communist Soviet Union) resonates with some of the Cuban Republican voters in South Florida.
I also think that Cuban voters will be very swingy this year. I think we will seem some reversion back to us in Miami Dade County.
I'll believe Cubans are swingy only if I see it!
See I worry his name being so involved in a Trump impeachment uniquely mobilizes Republican voters against him. And voters forget there was a Ukraine impeachment at all and will be easily led into thinking it was the insurrection one. Maybe a bit irrational.
True. But considering how fast and far TACO’s approval ratings plummeted over the last year, enough voters might be tired of the FL GOP to vote for Jolly and Vindman.
I’m trying to be measured because FL has let me down over the last several cycles. With the exception of the Miami and Jacksonville mayoral elections.
I just hope he uses the money tsunami that's coming his way to build up the party rather than blanket the state in ads. I'm highly skeptical that anyone can win here, so it'd probably do more good for him to use his profile to give the Florida party a shot in the arm than focus solely on his own race.
I don't agree much with him, but Matt Yglesias has been right that we needed the right recruits to compete in Obama era swing states like Iowa and Ohio and, 2018 and 2020's reddish purple states like Texas and Florida to put an end to Trump's tyranny.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
It will always be a hard flip but it's not impossible either. His approvals aren't good in Texas and Florida, especially among the youth and Latinos.
Strongly disagree. This is not the time for building bridges to a future that we are not guaranteed to have. His only priority should be winning the Senate seat. The state party will naturally build up if we were able to win a major race in the state again.
It's like the classic first-time job-seeker problem: We need a win to build the infrastructure, but we need infrastructure to get a win.
I know because his campaign texted me 5 times from 5 different phone numbers!
This is the kind of candidate profile we need for a shocking upset in a now red state. Military hero, high media profile with his brother in Congress already raising gobs more cash than any other Democratic incumbent. Likely R, not Safe anymore imo. I’m excited to see what he can do in the only reach state we didn’t really have a strong Senate candidate for in the midterms. Our field is set now with both reach states and swing ones having 1 or more good candidates running in.
If elected, Alexander Vindman will serve with his twin brother Eugene Vindman in Congress.
When was the last time we’ve seen twin brothers or sisters serve in Congress at the same time?
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/26/klobuchar-delays-governor-campaign-launch-as-border-patrol-killing-upends-minnesota-00748621
MN-Gov: Sen. Amy Klobuchar will enter by a week from today.
The article says, "The two people who described her changed launch plans said they expect the senator to formally launch before next Tuesday." So assuming they're right, it would be sometime BEFORE a week from today.
Will be interesting to see how current events in MN affect the race. We have a long-time, centrist, go-along-to-get-along politician not known for making waves on a glide-path to the governor's mansion while the state is under an unprecedented attack. Not saying she can't meet the moment, but I think voters are going to want confirmation of that. She's been having a great time going to hockey games (and posting about it on social media) while her constituents are being brutalized.
Good for Madel. But it’s technically not “retribution,” which implies that the punishment is justified, penalty for an actual wrong committed. What Trump and his minions are doing is meting out punishment to anyone who opposed him or his extreme right-wing agenda. It’s vindictive vengefulness, as well as an extortive tactic to instill fear and force compliance.
Punchbowl News: Crockett supporter hints ads attacking Talarico are coming
During a private donor call, a top supporter of Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Texas) Senate run said the campaign is planning to start attacking state Rep. James Talarico on the air.
“On the paid communication side, [Crockett is] going to have a robust program with some very strong ads that take advantage of the positive messaging, but also allow her to present some information to the electorate — some contrast information about her record and her opponent’s record,” Lee said.
Here’s more from Lee during the call:
“And because her opponent is somewhat less well-known, people do need to hear certain information so they can make an informed decision … The other candidate needs to go through the same vetting.”
https://punchbowl.news/archive/12726-am/
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2016116159934804463
Oh brother
How does the saying go again? If you’re attacking, you’re behind? Doesn’t really seem like a move the front runner would make.
I said this in the Maine thread yesterday. If you’re attacking, you’re probably behind.
Yes, I agree in most cases, but I do think in regards to this case of ICE specifically, it’s plausible that Platner’s attacking Mills on it because of the MN murders that literally just happened, instead of starting an attack right now because he’s behind. The reasoning behind why Platner’s attacking Mills now doesn’t seem to be at all clear to me. Smart politicians use unexpected situations to their advantage in campaigns, it could very well just be caused from that instead of Platner feeling worried he’s behind Mills (though I think he is atm fwiw).
If there was ever a campaign for the DSCC to blacklist consultants, it’s this one. Such a clear sign of a lack of morals and nous from her advisors that need to be stripped out of the party.
Boy do I wonder what her internals actually show
MD redistricting: I appreciate the aggressive new map, but one of my only gripes about it was the unnecessary split of Frederick County. That county is basically now solidly blue against anyone except Larry Hogan and only seems to be getting bluer every cycle. You can put get the leftover 250,000 people from MontCo and leave MD-08 entirely within MontCo. MD-06 would still be safe in everything but a 2014-style wave, and we'd already have lost the House anyway if we're facing a year like that.
I appreciate it because it makes MD-06 a bit bluer. With the added touch of putting its incumbent and predecessor-turned-challenger actually in the district. Since 2012 none of the Dems elected there (the Delaneys and Trone) have lived in the district--not that it's particularly important, as voters didn't care in the last two cycles when GOP candidate Neil Parrott tried to make that an issue.
Funny how Bill Ferguson was apparently OK with the current version and is now moaning about several Democratic districts potentially flipping in the new map. (Which won't happen this, and possibly any, year under either map.)
I live in Pennsylvania but I've considered a move to "Mountain Maryland."
For purely selfish numbers games, I hope you don’t. We need all the Dems in PA we can get.
I think there was one district (MD-03?) that was only made like Harris + 9. That can easily be bumped up to like Harris + 15 or so by unpacking the Harris + 50/60 MD-04 and MD-07.
It’s easy to draw MD-07 to take in the Republican leaning parts of Baltimore County around Dundalk, Middle River, Ilchester, and that red precinct in Pikeville. That part of Baltimore County voted for Trump by a margin over 20% and about 15,000 votes. That allows you to draw MD-02 and MD-03 as pretty compact and safe seats at Harris +15 apiece.
There may be some fire with that smoke from Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/27/trump-is-heading-back-to-iowa-and-other-districts-the-gop-cant-afford-to-lose-00747188
Is that smart with his negative approval ratings there in essentially every poll? Wait, this is Trump and his team, that was a stupid question.
I want Trump to hold a massive midterm convention in Texas.
Yep. A real Grindr-crasher!
Their only option is to try and fire up the MAGA base (which they know doesn't like to turn out when Trump's off the ballot, even if they won't admit it).
They turned up in 2018, flipping the MO Senate seat held by Claire McCaskill to the one now held by chicken shit Josh Hawley.
I think that was just Missouri continuing on its trajectory toward becoming a fully red state, rather than evidence of a surge of MAGA voters in a midterm. We were lucky to have McCaskill in MO as long as we did.
This is the correct interpretation of that race, I think.
She probably wouldn't have made it through 2012 if Steelman or Brunner had been her opponent.
Hell, even the scandal that doomed Akin seems downright quaint in the post-Trump era.
"Please proceed, King Donald."
FL-16:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/776257-vern-buchanan-to-retire-from-congress-after-20-years-of-service/
Rep. Vern Buchanan is retiring.
Could RNC chair Joe Gruters simultaneously serve in Congress while making a jump from the state Senate? State Rep. Michael Owen could be another successor.
In theory yes, but he’s already said he won’t. I also think that era’s a bit passed for the national committee especially. It’s too big a job to also serve as a federal elected or governor.
That’s the 2nd fairly safe in neutral years Republican incumbent in Florida who has retired in a week. They either know 2026 is going to be a bloodbath for their party or they’re worried about losing re-election.
Dunn and Buchanan are also in their 70s, so they may just want to retire
True, though I suspect they’d not be retiring if Earles Sears and Ciattarelli as well as the GOP state executive office candidates won in 2025 elections and special elections showed no bump over 2024 results for Democrats. So I think it at least played some part in their decision.
NJ-8:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/promising-to-choose-courage-mussab-ali-launches-primary-challenge-against-rob-menendez/
Former Jersey City Board of Ed President Mussab Ali is in, challenging Rob Menendez from the left.
Hell yeah. Not that I don't like Menendez, but I liked Ali when he ran for mayor.
Political texting is completely out of control. I've gotten texts from _5 different phone numbers_ for Alex Vindman today. The first text woke me up. What the fuck?!!!
If one of the texts is a pollster, try throwing them off by giving contradictory answers.
damn...I got only 3!!
I started replying "stop" to all of them, it's mostly abated.
I always reply stop, but it's not working when they text from 5 different numbers!
True, but just keep at it, I have seen far fewer political texts since I started
It may take some time/effort to implement on your device, but most smartphones can be set to only "ring" or make noise only when someone from a designated contacts list calls or messages you. All other contacts remain on silent or vibrate. You set the contacts list you want it to remaining ringing for, it could be just immediate family/friends, or more broad like work contacts etc..
putting this in place on my android has saved me many many nights of sleep. As far as the amount of texts youre getting, willing to be that some sort of executive meeting for Vindman finalized their plan. "do we have our email and phone lists ready? Lets get this going". Multiple lists, many with overlapping #s/emails/voter info are activated, and boom, you get 5 texts.
I was woken up by the vibration...
Put your phone on do not disturb mode and turn your sound off. Or set texts to vibrate/silent mode. That’ll prevent any unpleasant awakenings in the future.
That said, you’ll probably be happy with that text bombardment when Vindman announces raising insane amounts of money for his campaign on day 1.
I'm happy for him. None of the money is from me.
I know I can do that with my phone. The reason I usually don't is that then I forget to turn the ringer back on.
I only got one but I’ve had a “stop” and immediately block all spam texts for years, and think it’s finally helped
I've always replied "stop" except when I reported spam, and it's gotten worse, much worse.
NJ-SEN:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/comedian-vinnie-brand-might-challenge-cory-booker/
Vinnie Brand, comedian and owner of the Stress Factory Comedy Club, is considering challenging Sen. Cory Booker as a Republican. He does not stand a chance.
Saw that state Sen. Mike Testa and DOJ official Alina Habba were considering, too.
Habba? Would be basically the worst candidate they could come up with.
They could always run Menendez Sr. as an independent from jail. Or Chris Christie.
How do they know he wasn't joking?
they don't :-)
How does anyone know when a Republican is joking?
TX-30, TX-33:
https://x.com/birenbomb/status/2015927037303599576
TX-30 frontrunner and pastor Frederick Haynes III and tech executive and very longshot progressive TX-33 candidate Zeeshan Hafeez have endorsed each other. Huh.
CA Insurance Commissioner:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2026/01/27/republicans-navigate-alex-prettis-killing-00748773
Progressive candidate Jane Kim has received a number of union endorsements, including the the California Federation of Teachers, the California Teachers Association, and SEIU California.
look for nations to boycott upcoming winter olympics in italy if rumored Ice presence is true. This is not a joke reference to frozen water but rather to trump's brown shirts. https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/47742515/reports-ice-agents-security-role-milan-olympics
I think that's less likely since we're not the host country. I expect way more to happen around the world cup.
Yep - https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/47738104/ex-fifa-president-stay-away-usa-world-cup
you are correct! only a complet A hole like trump could take such a great int'l event like WC and fuck it up!!
Appreciation, Jeff, for the restraint to only write that small amount about Uncle Luke. Man has lived a life.