New Mexico Republicans have done a great job electing Democrats this year. Jesus. Lujan running uncontested, no major gubernatorial candidate, and now this.
Considering Trump was rather close to destroying all infrastructure, I'm not sure I feel comfortable with the idea of sacrificing Iranian civilians (and probably other people in the Middle East) to do better in elections, as much as I want to beat the Republicans.
Extremely well said. I am so tired of establishment liberals and centrists dictating the Democratic Party. That's why I haven't initially registered as a Democrat. But alternative faces like Piker may allow me to change my mind.
I largely agree with you, but without offering a view on Piker, who I'm not familiar with, I don't want the party to embrace pernicious bigots. If the Democrats emulate today's pathetic not-really-Labour Party in the UK, they'll seldom win, but if they embrace antisemites, there will be no place for progressive Jews to go. Etc.
That's because he went to an Abdul El-Sayed event, who is also negatively perceived by the media. However, many other prominent leftist figures like Summer Lee and Nico Agosta (politicial integrity activist) were also there.
Thank you for the clarification. Maybe what separates us from MAGA/the right wing is we don’t spend our time trying to find a political/media figure to tell us how to think.
As a Millennial I’ve listened to his stuff on YouTube (I’m not hip enough for Twitch) but people are obsessed with him because they see him as a “radical” and inflammatory. Ironically enough he’s probably the closest thing we’ve got to “Lefty Joe Rogan” and the establishment is all “But not like that”.
Piker is a very leftist streamer with a bit of a controversial history — and no I’m not talking about the forbidden issue. I’m talking about him doing a full-blown tour with the Chinese government, plus numerous controversial statements. Even among the left he’s controversial, I’ve seen left Bluesky users trash him.
That being said, I suspect 99.99999% of Americans have never heard of him, so I believe the scaremongering is misplaced.
Not a fan of Piker, but I'm always skeptical of these sorts of allegations against internet personalities. If you believe the terminally online, every influencer/poitician/celebrity is a murdering, raping. animal abusing pedophile.
As someone who is fairly neutral on Piker (sometimes he's annoying, sometimes he's fine) I feel the need to say the dog abuse allegations are 100% a right-wing hit job based on no evidence at all. I was curious about it and spent some time looking into it, and it's one of the more bizarre conspiracies to inflame the right.
Without any evidence, they decided his dog was being shocked on cam to stay in his video frame...even though the dog is shown plenty of times wandering away from the video frame...
Little confused as a relative newcomer to being a political junkie. Who is this author? Do they have a history of doomerism around Dems? (I know Politico as a whole certainly does, I’m asking about this author specifically.)
Politico and many of the people who write for them are some of the most well disguised Republicans and conservatives on the web. The site itself is owned by Axel Springer.
Because exposing their precious little shits to any content that might honestly talk about slavery, oppression or the like might make them compassionate/woke and we can't have that
Unlikely, there are only 11 Republican districts within Trump +10, some of which are closer to red than purple. Considering the Dems currently have 45 seats, anything more than 55 seats would be a major surprise.
Don't know, but if she won every district where Trump got less than 60% of the vote (none of which are located in the less-elastic WOW area), then 24 seats
Another poll by Big Data Poll (?) from the same time period has Massie up 52-48, with no undecided. Much better than his previous showing against a "Trump-endorsed Republican" last June which had him trailing 52-23 .
Perhaps on paper Massie might be in danger. However, in that tweet, one commenter mentioned he is a Democrat and is voting for Massie in the primary.
Although this is just one person, I wonder if perhaps there will be an influx of registered Democrats in KY-04 who will vote for Massie. Polling may not pick this up.
I don't know about Callais causing gerrymanders. The filing deadlines (and even primaries in NC and MS) have already passed in states that would have redraws.
I think the Court, if it makes any changes to the law, will apply the "Purcell doctrine" and not require the state to redistrict for the November election.
We also don’t know if the justices will kill the VRA. Last I heard, Roberts and Gorsuch sounded skeptical in hearings, and Trump threatening Roberts recently + the birthright citizenship case going up in flames indicates that there’s still a possibility they won’t kill it.
I wonder how much it'd actually do that. SF salaries are very high relative to the rest of the country. The companies being targeted are primarily going to be the largest ones, who are primarily going to be tech companies in the context of SF.
What's a typical median salary for a tech office in SF? If it's $200k/year, then the 100x would be $20m/year.
I bet little would happen to those properties because of various, redundant environmental impact studies and neighbors shrieking about the fearsome shadows that these buildings cast.
Yes but SF is also not that liberal either. It's more center left and moderate than Berkeley, where I live, which is a pro-tenant city. Has been this way ever since Willie Brown was elected Mayor back in the mid 90's.
Best to know about the Bay Area in ideological makeup:
East Bay from Rodeo all the way to San Leandro (including Alameda, Berkeley and Oakland) - The most liberal and social justice part of the Bay Area. San Francisco pales by comparison as it's big money interests prevent it being another Oakland.
East Bay from Alamo to San Ramon - More center left and moderate. Danville as an example is pretty conservative, as is Clayton.
Daniel Lurie? He's apolitical. Very much right in the middle but more closely aligned with Scott Weiner and former San Francisco Mayor London Breed on housing.
Yes. Wiener is far more progressive than all of those guy. Arguably more progressive than the whole field if you look at policies and constituent services targeted to help renters and the working class
As someone who has followed Weiner since he was Supervisor back in the day and was living in San Francisco at the time, he's got a strange habit of being bold on one singular issue of housing but on every other issue, he's really not inspiring to me.
Back in the day, Weiner had a habit of being a square as a Supervisor on issues such as passing law that prevented nudity. I found Weiner as a gay Supervisor to be quite strange taking on such a trivial issue considering the gay community in the Castro has always been very free spirited and non-systematic. I mean, the Folson Street Fair and the Love Parade and other events have traditionally shown nude gay people here for a long time.
Chakrabarti? There is a reason he has zero working class support in my hometown. Chan I get (but strongly oppose for her NIMBY votes). But Chakrabarti would say absolutely anything to get elected. In person, he really comes across as slimy (when he bothers to show up).
FL-6: Dan Bilzerian, whose numerous exploits have given him both legal trouble and a massive social media following, will primary Republican Rep. Randy Fine. Bilzerian is known to be antisemitic, and Fine is Jewish.
Bilzerian is too, he is just very antisemitic. He's working out of the office of Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini, known to be extreme on these issues.
I think scheduling a referendum/initiative on a Republican runoff is a slightly different tactical move than scheduling it in the random dead of summer. That said, I still consider it a sign that the Republican Party truly does not know its voters or its opposition. The Democratic Party is now a group of people with a My Strange Addiction level obsession with voting. Republicans can barely be bothered. Despite this "sneaky referenda" move failing in Louisiana last year and a loss of their Obama-era special election advantage post-2017, that this is still their M.O. is incompetence.
Probably desperation more than incompetence. I think they’re at wit’s end. In their shoes and with their value system, what strategic choice would you make to increase the GOP’s odds of success? That’s a sincere question.
I like what Michael said but also what you say. It is both in my opinion because Republicans are desperate that they can't sell their agenda to the majority of the electorate anymore showing their methods are incompetence in representing their constituents, overall.
New Mexico Republicans have done a great job electing Democrats this year. Jesus. Lujan running uncontested, no major gubernatorial candidate, and now this.
Hopefully without many casualties or destroyed property.
Considering Trump was rather close to destroying all infrastructure, I'm not sure I feel comfortable with the idea of sacrificing Iranian civilians (and probably other people in the Middle East) to do better in elections, as much as I want to beat the Republicans.
Yeah, we don't want Iranians to be murdered, regardless of what it does to Trump and the Republicans politically.
Or American troops, because he'll surely decide to try to capture islands in the straits/gulf.
Can we get an Obama 2012 + Biden 2020 morphed together, with Obama's rural performance and Biden's performance in the suburbs?
That's basically Talarico's path in Texas.
The days when we were competitive in places like MO, MT, and ND
Interesting. He dropped out right before a Dem primary debate tonight (that I’m attending).
Classy! (sincere)
But she just got the coveted Piker endorsement according to the Right Wing Media Machine lol.
Why are conservatives (and frankly, centrist Democrats) so obsessed with that guy?
Extremely well said. I am so tired of establishment liberals and centrists dictating the Democratic Party. That's why I haven't initially registered as a Democrat. But alternative faces like Piker may allow me to change my mind.
2012 was a pretty strong year for us. We won senate races in states we couldn't even sniff at today
Preach. More and Better Democrats every Election cycle and we can change the world.
I largely agree with you, but without offering a view on Piker, who I'm not familiar with, I don't want the party to embrace pernicious bigots. If the Democrats emulate today's pathetic not-really-Labour Party in the UK, they'll seldom win, but if they embrace antisemites, there will be no place for progressive Jews to go. Etc.
I never heard of Piker until the lame stream media started talking about him this past week.
Same here. I was a bit like "hey, seems like a self-important asshole" and then went on with my day.
That's because he went to an Abdul El-Sayed event, who is also negatively perceived by the media. However, many other prominent leftist figures like Summer Lee and Nico Agosta (politicial integrity activist) were also there.
Thank you for the clarification. Maybe what separates us from MAGA/the right wing is we don’t spend our time trying to find a political/media figure to tell us how to think.
As a Millennial I’ve listened to his stuff on YouTube (I’m not hip enough for Twitch) but people are obsessed with him because they see him as a “radical” and inflammatory. Ironically enough he’s probably the closest thing we’ve got to “Lefty Joe Rogan” and the establishment is all “But not like that”.
Piker is a very leftist streamer with a bit of a controversial history — and no I’m not talking about the forbidden issue. I’m talking about him doing a full-blown tour with the Chinese government, plus numerous controversial statements. Even among the left he’s controversial, I’ve seen left Bluesky users trash him.
That being said, I suspect 99.99999% of Americans have never heard of him, so I believe the scaremongering is misplaced.
Didn't they also say he abused his dog? If true, that would be beyond awful.
I don’t know if that’s been 100% confirmed but it was based off of a video where people believed he used a shock collar.
Not a fan of Piker, but I'm always skeptical of these sorts of allegations against internet personalities. If you believe the terminally online, every influencer/poitician/celebrity is a murdering, raping. animal abusing pedophile.
As someone who is fairly neutral on Piker (sometimes he's annoying, sometimes he's fine) I feel the need to say the dog abuse allegations are 100% a right-wing hit job based on no evidence at all. I was curious about it and spent some time looking into it, and it's one of the more bizarre conspiracies to inflame the right.
Without any evidence, they decided his dog was being shocked on cam to stay in his video frame...even though the dog is shown plenty of times wandering away from the video frame...
WOW!
Little confused as a relative newcomer to being a political junkie. Who is this author? Do they have a history of doomerism around Dems? (I know Politico as a whole certainly does, I’m asking about this author specifically.)
Ah got it. This is a good sign for us if even he thinks the Senate is headed our way.
He definitely doesn't like Trump, if this article is to be believed...
That's totally understandable - it's how I feel when people mention certain analysts and strategists I don't follow.
Politico and many of the people who write for them are some of the most well disguised Republicans and conservatives on the web. The site itself is owned by Axel Springer.
Why would she want to ban Toni Morrison?
Because exposing their precious little shits to any content that might honestly talk about slavery, oppression or the like might make them compassionate/woke and we can't have that
I think WI Ds can get a 63-64 state Assembly seat majority a la Virginia last year. But if it's just 51-55 seats, that's fine too.
Unlikely, there are only 11 Republican districts within Trump +10, some of which are closer to red than purple. Considering the Dems currently have 45 seats, anything more than 55 seats would be a major surprise.
What about State Senate districts?
They're nested, 3 Assembly districts per Senate district. So I would guess she won at least 20/33 Senate districts? 70 divided by three is 23 1/3
Don't know, but if she won every district where Trump got less than 60% of the vote (none of which are located in the less-elastic WOW area), then 24 seats
Another poll by Big Data Poll (?) from the same time period has Massie up 52-48, with no undecided. Much better than his previous showing against a "Trump-endorsed Republican" last June which had him trailing 52-23 .
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/republican-primary-poll-for-kentucky-house-district-4/
Perhaps on paper Massie might be in danger. However, in that tweet, one commenter mentioned he is a Democrat and is voting for Massie in the primary.
Although this is just one person, I wonder if perhaps there will be an influx of registered Democrats in KY-04 who will vote for Massie. Polling may not pick this up.
I don't know about Callais causing gerrymanders. The filing deadlines (and even primaries in NC and MS) have already passed in states that would have redraws.
You think they'd consider reopening filing just so new maps could go through? Seems risky legally and politically
I think the Court, if it makes any changes to the law, will apply the "Purcell doctrine" and not require the state to redistrict for the November election.
I think that's unlikely, they're very "Purcell for thee, not for me" in the last few terms.
That's not totally true. And in this instance, it really is late in the game with filing deadlines having passed.
We also don’t know if the justices will kill the VRA. Last I heard, Roberts and Gorsuch sounded skeptical in hearings, and Trump threatening Roberts recently + the birthright citizenship case going up in flames indicates that there’s still a possibility they won’t kill it.
Shocker (/s). Hoping for a Robert White win.
Totally. My daughter interned for White last year. From what she told me, he is a great guy who works all the time
It sounds like a way to get big corps to move their offices in SF out of the city. But maybe that would ease a housing affordability crush.
I wonder how much it'd actually do that. SF salaries are very high relative to the rest of the country. The companies being targeted are primarily going to be the largest ones, who are primarily going to be tech companies in the context of SF.
What's a typical median salary for a tech office in SF? If it's $200k/year, then the 100x would be $20m/year.
I bet little would happen to those properties because of various, redundant environmental impact studies and neighbors shrieking about the fearsome shadows that these buildings cast.
More likely it would increase commuters to the Peninsula and South Bay, as many young, single workers do still want to live in SF.
I don't oppose Prop D, but I do think statewide or national tax-the-rich efforts are more effective than local ones.
It's disappointing but not surprising. I feel like Wiener is a mixed bag on a lot of issues. Chan and Chakrabarti are the only solid candidates.
Weiner would be an extremely solid progressive in the House, he only looks moderate by comparison to leftist Bay Area politics.
Yet, some of the most prominent Bay Area politicians (Dan Lurie, Matt Mahan, Eric Swalwell, Sam Liccardo) are further to the right of Wiener, too, no?
Well that falls into the Silicon Valley problem, especially as Big Tech has become more right-wing friendly.
Oh, definitely. Especially Mahan
You'd expect that. The areas they rep aren't as left as SF is.
Apart from Lurie, who is mayor of SF. And the entire Bay Area isn't just SF, either.
Yes but SF is also not that liberal either. It's more center left and moderate than Berkeley, where I live, which is a pro-tenant city. Has been this way ever since Willie Brown was elected Mayor back in the mid 90's.
Best to know about the Bay Area in ideological makeup:
East Bay from Rodeo all the way to San Leandro (including Alameda, Berkeley and Oakland) - The most liberal and social justice part of the Bay Area. San Francisco pales by comparison as it's big money interests prevent it being another Oakland.
East Bay from Alamo to San Ramon - More center left and moderate. Danville as an example is pretty conservative, as is Clayton.
Daniel Lurie? He's apolitical. Very much right in the middle but more closely aligned with Scott Weiner and former San Francisco Mayor London Breed on housing.
Yes. Wiener is far more progressive than all of those guy. Arguably more progressive than the whole field if you look at policies and constituent services targeted to help renters and the working class
As someone who has followed Weiner since he was Supervisor back in the day and was living in San Francisco at the time, he's got a strange habit of being bold on one singular issue of housing but on every other issue, he's really not inspiring to me.
Back in the day, Weiner had a habit of being a square as a Supervisor on issues such as passing law that prevented nudity. I found Weiner as a gay Supervisor to be quite strange taking on such a trivial issue considering the gay community in the Castro has always been very free spirited and non-systematic. I mean, the Folson Street Fair and the Love Parade and other events have traditionally shown nude gay people here for a long time.
Let's just say Weiner is no Mark Leno.
Chakrabarti? There is a reason he has zero working class support in my hometown. Chan I get (but strongly oppose for her NIMBY votes). But Chakrabarti would say absolutely anything to get elected. In person, he really comes across as slimy (when he bothers to show up).
I get that vibe from him too, but he has support from several progressive figures and groups.
I really ought to share more on the Downballot here about the days with Supervisor Chris Daly back in the 2000’s. Now he was the real NIMBY.
Or he knows how real "vote with your feet" can be. Have we learned nothing? It sucks, but it's real.
Is there a final reckoning of D results in MO & OK on Tue?
I heard there were some flips.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5822149-dan-bilzerian-randy-fine-florida-congress/amp/
FL-6: Dan Bilzerian, whose numerous exploits have given him both legal trouble and a massive social media following, will primary Republican Rep. Randy Fine. Bilzerian is known to be antisemitic, and Fine is Jewish.
And Fine is an avowed anti-Muslim.
Bilzerian is too, he is just very antisemitic. He's working out of the office of Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini, known to be extreme on these issues.
Fine is a bigoted beluga whale.
Dan Bilzerian is a human herpes sore, in a variety of fashions
I think scheduling a referendum/initiative on a Republican runoff is a slightly different tactical move than scheduling it in the random dead of summer. That said, I still consider it a sign that the Republican Party truly does not know its voters or its opposition. The Democratic Party is now a group of people with a My Strange Addiction level obsession with voting. Republicans can barely be bothered. Despite this "sneaky referenda" move failing in Louisiana last year and a loss of their Obama-era special election advantage post-2017, that this is still their M.O. is incompetence.
Probably desperation more than incompetence. I think they’re at wit’s end. In their shoes and with their value system, what strategic choice would you make to increase the GOP’s odds of success? That’s a sincere question.
I like what Michael said but also what you say. It is both in my opinion because Republicans are desperate that they can't sell their agenda to the majority of the electorate anymore showing their methods are incompetence in representing their constituents, overall.