Morning Digest: November will test whether Democrats can bounce back on Long Island

A new map and an anti-Trump backlash may give them an opening

New York Democrat Nicole Aloise, who is running for Nassau County District Attorney in November (credit: Nicole Aloise Facebook)

Leading Off

Nassau County, NY

Democrats on Long Island are aiming to retake power this fall in Nassau County, a populous community that has shifted decidedly toward Republicans over the last few years.

Democrats, though, hope that a backlash against Donald Trump and his party will give them the chance to reverse the GOP's recent gains when voters cast ballots in local elections this fall. They're also aiming to win their first majority in nearly two decades on the county Legislature, where a new map adopted as part of a legal settlement will replace the old Republican gerrymander.

The two most prominent Republican incumbents on the ballot are District Attorney Anne Donnelly and County Executive ​​Bruce Blakeman, whose victories four years ago were an early sign that Long Island was zooming to the right.

Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: Trump just flipped Nassau County. Democrats think they can win it back

Both Republicans appeared to be the underdogs in 2021, just one year after Joe Biden decisively carried Nassau County 54-45. That extended the county's long streak of supporting Democrats for president, beginning with Bill Clinton in 1992.

Donnelly, though, won an open Democratic-held post in a 58-42 landslide after she campaigned almost exclusively on her opposition to ending cash bail and other criminal justice reforms.

Blakeman, meanwhile, unseated incumbent Democrat Laura Curran in a 50.4 to 49.6 squeaker in the race for executive. The rest of the GOP's ticket also fared well: Elaine Phillips flipped the comptroller's office, while County Clerk Maureen O'Connell was reelected.

Republicans continued their resurgence during the 2022 midterm elections and again in local races the following year. Trump went on to score a 51-47 victory in Nassau in 2024, a performance that underscored just how much local politics had changed.

Both parties will get their first clue this November whether that shift will last, or whether voters are eager to turn the page on the party in the White House.

Democrat Nicole Aloise is opposing Donnelly, whom she used to work for. Aloise, though, has highlighted the fact that she, along with some 90 fellow prosecutors, resigned during the district attorney's tenure, a departure the challenger says was instigated by a "dictator"-like environment fomented from the top.

"Once Anne Donnelly took office, the job changed," Aloise said at an event in July. "[I]t was no longer about justice, it was about her own agenda." Another former prosecutor was even less diplomatic in comments to the New York Post, saying, "You can either treat us like shit or pay us like shit, you can't do both—Donnelly did."

Aloise is also trying to prevent the incumbent from once again depicting herself as the tough-on-crime candidate.

The Democrat launched an introductory ad this week in which she declares she "stood against my own party on bail reform." Aloise goes on to accuse Donnelly of "not doing her job," saying that "criminals are being set free due to dysfunction and reckless mistakes." Aloise adds, "And crime is up."

But Donnelly remains determined to win by portraying her former subordinate as a supporter of a "criminal-first agenda." The district attorney made that comment to the Post in July after Aloise's campaign advertised a job opening online that included the text, "People with a criminal record are encouraged to apply."

Aloise's team responded, "Nicole has a long record of locking up violent felons, and a box accidentally left checked on indeed.com does not change that." Donnelly, unsurprisingly, was anything but appeased.

Both candidates have the resources to blast their messages out. Aloise raised about $700,000 through the end of the last reporting period in June, while Donnelly has taken in almost as much since she entered office in 2022. The incumbent, however, finished the second quarter of the year with almost $600,000 in the bank, compared to just under $430,000 for her opponent.

Blakeman, by contrast, ended June with a massive $3.3 million stockpile, while Democrat Seth Koslow, the county legislator challenging him for reelection as executive, had around $400,000 to spend. Blakeman himself, though, proved that a huge financial lead was by no means a guarantee of victory in 2021 when he overcame a large fundraising deficit in his quest to unseat Curran.

Koslow is hoping that unhappiness with the status quo both nationally and locally will sink Blakeman, who hasn't ruled out running for governor next year.

The challenger also has reason to be optimistic that he'll benefit from a decades-long pattern: The last time voters elected an executive from the same party that controlled the White House was 1989, when the powerful Nassau County GOP was still firmly in control of local politics.

Democrats are also aiming to unseat the other two members of the GOP's countywide ticket.

Former North Hempstead Town Clerk Wayne Wink is challenging Phillips for the comptroller's office, while Hempstead Board of Education Trustee Joylette Williams is seeking to deny O'Connell another term as clerk. Both Republicans finished June with huge fundraising leads over their respective opponents, but a strong night for Democrats could help them overcome their deficit.

The final piece of the puzzle is the 19-member County Legislature, which the GOP has controlled since the 2009 elections. Since then, Republican gerrymandering has kept the party in power, and they currently enjoy a 12-7 majority.

This year's races, though, will be conducted using new boundaries as a result of a two-year legal battle. Democrats and voting rights advocates argued that the GOP violated state law by passing a partisan and racial gerrymander. The dispute ended in January with a settlement that created more diverse districts.

County GOP chair Joseph Cairo, though, has argued the new map won't stop Republicans from going on the offensive. Cairo recently told Newsday that he was trying to gain the final seat needed for a supermajority, which would allow Republicans to override executive vetoes and borrow for capital projects without Democratic support.

Democrats also see opportunity, though one prominent leader is lowering expectations about finally flipping the chamber. Jay Jacobs, who heads both the state and county party, told the paper it "might take" until 2027 to win a majority

"We have to hold what we've got and hopefully pick up one or two seats," Jacobs said.

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David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We love bringing you the Morning Digest every day, because shining a spotlight on overlooked elections is as important to us as it is to you. But it takes a lot of hard work—and resources. If you’re able to support The Downballot by upgrading to a paid subscription, we’d be incredibly grateful.

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The Downballot Podcast

You have more power than you think

Even amidst all the grim news, supporters of democracy have much more power than they think. That's the message from election law expert Justin Levitt on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast.

Levitt explains why Donald Trump has almost no legal power to direct the conduct of elections and emphasizes that voters have almost always rejected gerrymandering when given the chance. He even expresses cautious optimism that the Supreme Court won't wreck the remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act and expects that new GOP gerrymanders won't be enough to overcome a wave election.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's elections in Northern Virginia and Boston—two blowouts that were good news for Democrats. They discuss how Missouri Democrats can prevent Republicans from enacting their new gerrymandered map, and why Democratic primaries in a pair of key Senate races are almost certainly going to be a good thing.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Governors

FL-Gov

Former Rep. David Jolly has released a poll showing him narrowly edging out Republican Rep. Byron Donalds 41-40 in next year's contest for Florida's open governorship, a race that Jolly is trying to convince his fellow Democrats is winnable.

The survey, which was conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International, also shows former state House Speaker Paul Renner with a small 42-40 advantage in a hypothetical general election against Jolly, a former Republican who joined the Democrats this year.

Renner is the underdog against Donalds in next August's GOP primary, while Jolly currently faces no serious opposition.

GA-Gov

Democrat Jason Esteves resigned from the Georgia state Senate on Wednesday to focus on his campaign for governor next year.

Esteves is competing against two other former elected officials in next May's Democratic primary: Keisha Lance Bottoms, who served as mayor of Atlanta from 2018 to 2022, and Michael Thurmond, whose 12-year stint as chief executive for DeKalb County ended in January.

IL-Gov

Former state Sen. Darren Bailey will seek a rematch next year against Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, the Democrat who easily beat him in 2022, Bailey's soon-to-be running mate tells the Chicago Tribune. Aaron Del Mar, who leads the Cook County Republican Party, says that he will be Bailey's candidate for lieutenant governor.

Bailey earned the GOP nod in 2022 after Pritzker and allies spent more than $30 million to block then-Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, whom Democrats believed would be a much stronger opponent, from winning the Republican primary. The hardline nominee, who had once sponsored a bill to expel Chicago from Illinois, proceeded to prove his skeptics right by losing to Pritzker 55-42.

Bailey soon reemerged on the political scene by challenging Rep. Mike Bost for renomination in the safely red 12th Congressional District. He came close to overcoming the incumbent's huge financial advantage and support from Donald Trump, but Bost narrowly fended him off 51-49.

Bailey joins DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick and Ted Dabrowski, who previously led a conservative advocacy group, in next year's GOP primary. Pritzker is favored to secure a third term in this blue state.

MN-Gov

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz has informed people he'll seek reelection next year, the Minnesota Reformer reports.

Reporters asked Walz on Wednesday after the story ran if he was leaning toward running for a third term, to which he responded, "I think that's a safe assumption." He added, "We want to make an official announcement in the next few days."

NJ-Gov

The Republican Governors' Association is finally booking ad time to aid Jack Ciattarelli in this fall's race to lead New Jersey, though it remains to be seen just how much.

AdImpact reported on Wednesday that it had tracked $355,000 as of Wednesday afternoon from the RGA's Restore NJ affiliate but cautioned that "[r]eservations are still coming in." The spots are set to begin airing on Friday.

The Democratic Governors Association, by contrast, announced back in July that it had booked $20 million for TV, digital, and streaming ads to help Mikie Sherrill in the Nov. 4 contest. Both the DGA and Sherrill launched their first general election ads last week.

VA-Gov, VA-LG

Republican John Reid has released an internal poll arguing that he's ahead in the race for lieutenant governor of Virginia even as Winsome Earl-Sears trails in her bid for governor.

The survey, from Pulse Decision Science, finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger outpacing Earl-Sears 48-43 as Reid edges out Ghazala Hashmi 45-42. The release did not include a test of Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares' prospects against Democratic challenger Jay Jones.

Reid showcased these numbers one day after a poll from Virginia Commonwealth University showed Spanberger and Hashmi leading 49-40 and 45-41, respectively. That survey also placed Jones ahead 47-41.

WI-Gov

Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson said Wednesday that he was supporting Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley's campaign for the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin's open governor's race rather than running himself. Johnson and Crowley are friends who have an overlapping geographic base of support, so it was unlikely they'd both enter the contest.

House

IN-01

Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green was the subject of an internal investigation when she resigned from Gov. Mike Braun's cabinet last week, the Indiana Capitol Chronicle reports.

The revelations come as Green is considering challenging Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in the 1st District, which Republicans may gerrymander.

The Chronicle obtained a copy of a remediation agreement from July describing allegations that Green, who served as Indiana's public safety secretary, had inappropriate "conversations with employees about personal relationships, intimate subjects, or sexual activities" and engaged in "uninvited touching of employees."

It also said that she had been accused of using state resources and staff for personal and political tasks. The document, which was addressed to Green, further stated, "Staff who have tried to advise you of concerns have felt retaliated against/punished/put in the doghouse as a result."

Green, the report says, acknowledged she had made "limited" use of state vehicles for non-official purposes and had "a financial relationship with an employee" she did not properly disclose. But Green denied the other accusations and was allowed to remain in the cabinet as the state inspector general conducted its own investigation.

While Green's resignation last Friday appeared to be merely a prelude to a new campaign against Mrvan, who defeated her in 2022, that was not the case, reports the Chronicle. Rather, the outlet says she abruptly quit midway through a meeting where Braun's staff was discussing the findings of the inspector general's report with her.

Green told the site on Tuesday that she was the victim of "baseless allegations." She added, "I am pursuing legal options to address this, and believe this leak shows the reality of the environment that led me to resign."

MI-13, MI-SoS

Former state Sen. Adam Hollier confirmed Wednesday that he was ending his primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar and would instead run for Michigan secretary of state.

Hollier's decision leaves state Rep. Donavan McKinney as the only prominent Democrat opposing Thanedar for renomination in the 13th District, a safely blue seat based in Detroit. If no one else gets in, Thanedar will now need to win a majority of the primary vote in next August's primary.

It's far from guaranteed that that state of affairs will hold, however, as Detroit City Council member Mary Waters did not rule out running when the Detroit News contacted her on Tuesday. Waters, who said she was concentrating on winning reelection to her current office this November, challenged Thanedar last year but lost 55-34 after the wealthy congressman massively outspent her.

Hollier, for his part, is now one of three candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for secretary of state, which will be decided at a party convention rather than through a traditional primary.

NY-10

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander holds a 52-33 advantage over Rep. Dan Goldman in a hypothetical Democratic primary matchup, according to a new poll from a progressive organization that's trying to recruit Lander to run.

Semafor, which first shared the data, writes that Lander "declined to respond on record" when asked about the survey. The poll was conducted by Data for Progress for a group called Demand Progress Action.

The comptroller didn't rule out waging such a campaign in the 10th District in June shortly after Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, whom he cross-endorsed, pulled off an upset victory in the ranked-choice primary for mayor. CNN, though, subsequently reported that Lander has since seemed more interested in serving in a Mamdani administration.

TN-07

Former state cabinet member Matt Van Epps is the beneficiary of a new $150,000 ad campaign from American Liberty Foundation, a group affiliated with far-right Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, Axios reports.

The commercial praises "MAGA warrior Matt Van Epps" for his service in the Tennessee Army National Guard and highlights his support from Jordan and former Rep. Mark Green. Van Epps is one of 11 Republicans competing in the Oct. 7 special primary for the 7th District, which Green resigned from in July.

The only other notable outside spending thus far has come from the House Freedom Caucus to help state Rep. Jody Barrett. This nihilistic bloc, of which Jordan was a founding member, has also spent about $150,000 thus far.

Editor's note: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly identified Jennifer-Ruth Green as "Jennifer Ruth-Green."