Someone here recently said that Lazar seemed to be taking one for the team by running in this election, and that even Wisconsin Republicans didn't see it as winnable considering the results of last year's election. That may explain why Lazar isn't raising much money.
That being said, I'd still like to see some polling here.
It also should be noted that an outside group could try to make a last minute play here by donating a bunch of money to the WI GOP and them spending money on behalf of Lazar. However, given the political environment, that seems unlikely.
That was me, but also there is a huge enthusiasm gap - a Lazar win doesn't flip the majority, and a Taylor win grows it, but the energy is asymmetrical - I was on an organizing call with a group that does postcards for Dems - 250k of the first wave of WISC postcards were assigned within 24 hrs. Dems are fired up, no matter the race's context.
I honestly don't get why Delgado is continuing to primary Hochul. It makes sense why he initially announced, but the writing's on the wall. He should preserve his dignity and try to salvage what relationships he can so he can maybe run for something in the future, not continue this quixotic campaign for god knows what reason.
I think he wanted to cut in line of Tish James but I dont think he ever had much of a chance with Hochuls support upstate. He should have stayed in congress.
From my limited understanding as a non-lawyer, I think much of the complaint hinges on arcane legislative procedure, which I think SCOVA would defer to the Legislature to set their own rules.
I follow Sam Shirazi on social media. He says that while the VA Supreme Court leans conservative, they're nonpartisan and originalist. Not like the partisan antics here in NC, OH, AR and elsewhere.
Sam Shirazi (a lawyer who writes a lot on Virginia politics) said that Democrats' appeal of the Tazewell judge's ruling will likely succeed, which will then allow the redistricting referendum to go on the ballot in April.
What I find most interesting about this poll is the unfavorability/net favor ability:
"Among these five candidates, Talarico has the highest net-favorability rating (20%), followed by Hunt (11%), Crockett (9%), Paxton (-7%) and Cornyn (-10%)."
Talarico and Hunt are also lesser known by the public than the other three.
If only Talarico can get through the primary, he's better positioned to win the general as most of us suspect.
Being the anti-Trump voice on TV can help a ton in a Dem primary (Dan Goldman in NY).
My understanding is Talarico has outraised & outspent her by a big margin thus far.
And while I certainly agree that Talarico is the better candidate in the general, I think a big Blue Wave could still carry Crockett over the line. Especially if it is Paxton.
Some in the "I am not gonna vote for the Black Lady" crowd have hopefully learned their lesson.
Crockett has better name recognition? That's open to interpretation. Both Crockett and Talarico have comparable name recognition but in their own way of putting themselves in the orbit media wise.
Months before Talarico announced his Senate run, he had been doing interviews with Joe Rogan and others (even Rogan suggested Talarico run for POTUS). While Crockett has made headlines on numerous occasions, so has Talarico with Jubilee and other platforms.
The polls right now indicate a competitive TX-SEN primary race but I don't see how this indicates name recognition is what is factoring in. With 12% undecided, anything goes at this point.
Are we sure Talarico's media appearances since 2025 have not reached enough older people? He's appeared on Fox News as far back as in August 2025 to talk about TX redistricting but announced his Senate campaign the following month.
Black voters in TX for sure are gravitating towards Crockett but older people on the other hand, it depends on the age range.
If he wins the primary, I can only imagine what kind of media advertising he's going to do in the general election. Seems to have a good grasp of demographics.
I pointed this out in last night's open thread, but I'd figure more people would see it today, given the shock special election results in LA and TX these past weekends.
NC has a 50-seat state Senate and 120 seat state House of Representatives, all have 2-year terms. NC GOP has a gerrymandered supermajority in the state Senate (30 seats) and one seat short of one in the state House (71).
I looked at the GOP state Senate seats that were won between the 50-65% range: potentially nine are up for grabs (six needed for an outright majority, five for the LG to break a tie), including Phil Berger and his right-hand woman Amy Galey.
I estimate roughly half of those 71 House seats were won in the same 50-65% margin. NC Democrats only need to flip 12 of those seats to net a majority. I think in a massive blue wave election not only can the state House flip control, but maybe almost a supermajority a la Virginia. It's much harder for the state Senate given how Phil Berger is dug in, but one can hope.
The tipping point to flip the NC state house is around Trump+10. State senate is tougher at around Trump+13.
In the state house there are 8 GOP-held districts won by any statewide Democrat besides Josh Stein. Hunt, Jackson, Marshall, and Green ran the table on 25, 35, 37, and 105. Additionally Green carried 59, 62, and 63 and Jackson won 73. That's 57 seats, 4 away from a majority (and 3 from a tie). To get over the hump you have to pick off seats non-stein Dems narrowly lost like 9, 64, 74, 82.
In the state senate easiest flips are 7 and 11. Hunt and Jackson narrowly won 7, Marshall and Green narrowly lost it. The four ran the board on 11. 4 and 34 are sleeper targets, they were close in some races though only Stein carried them. Still need one more to tie and two to flip.
True. The thing is, there will be some depressed GOP turnout this year given that 1) their party controls the WH and Congress, and 2) midterm elections.
The question is how bad it will get and will that open the door for an upset or two. Now former governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate will definitely get some Republicans off the couch. But the question is, will those Rs reliably vote the party line, or will they vote for the Dem candidates out of spite?
Because Republicans got a rude awakening by taking the Latino vote for granted.
I think we can do way better than gaining 6 state House seats and 2 state Sen seats this year, esp with MUCH better party leadership and Cooper running for US. Senate.
If loyal Republicans sit out or leave their legislative election choices blank, the chances of an upset loss go up.
Berger, the most powerful guy in N.C. politics only won his race in 2024 by 54%. Then you take into account that he has a serious primary challenger this year. He loses his primary or heavily damaged, he’s vulnerable to losing his power outright.
Ok, he clearly is a potential target, but that has more to do with Berger than the lean of his seat. Most legislators in Trump +20 seats are not quite this unpopular.
After losing the special election to fill the remainder of the late Sylvester Turner's term in Texas CD 18 to Christian Menefee, Amanda Edwards has announced that she is suspending her campaign for the full term in November. However, this comes too late to remove her name from the March ballot, where it will appear with active candidates Menefee and Congressman Al Green.
I've got a question for the community here. As you may know, Israel will be having an election this fall - its first since the founding of The Downballot. My question is, are we as a community mature enough to discuss this election, and Israeli political geography more generally, without anyone pushing the conversation toward the forbidden topic? Or is this an election that we shouldn't talk about here?
I'd tread carefully but I'm fine with it as long as the discussion as long as there's transparency about the issues being discussed outside of the forbidden topic. Perhaps a disclaimer mentioning "forbidden topic" along with the issues that can be talked about would be a good start.
I've had limited discussion here before about Israel but the problems it has domestically within the country as it relates to the income inequality problem Israelis face. Considering that there are different political parties represented in Israeli Parliment, I am interested to hear what candidates are proposing policy wise that doesn't relate to the forbidden topic.
I’d say it’s a narrow line and I’d defer to the mods. I don’t think it’s a secret that everybody here would like to see Bibi in jail and his Kahanist allies humiliated by the electorate. Like Zero Cool said a discussion of polling, seat projections, and domestic policy questions unrelated to THAT subject should be fair game.
Just as we can discuss the always-evolving *format* of the Dem Pres Primary without touching on race itself, I think we can discuss the Israeli election in a straightforward, just the polls/results sort of way.
The trick to both is constant vigilance from the mods to keep things from going astray.
I would like to point out that Naftali Bennett’s ruling coalition was the broadest in Israel’s history, and it included the Arab-Israeli party led by Mansour Abbas.
I agree with other people that discussions of domestic political issues, polls, projections, etc. should be fair game.
I would even go farther to say that I would be fine with objective statements about parties' or candidates' stances on the forbidden issue, so long as we remain purely objective and don't place value judgements on those statements. To me this is similar to how we discuss objective facts of who receives AIPAC support in American elections while not placing outright value judgements on that support/lack of support. And although I can sometimes make guesses as to individual commenters' personal opinions, I am still fine with that. The reality is that the forbidden topic is relevant in Israeli politics and will likely play a role in who gains or loses support. If we are to discuss Israeli elections then we should be able to objectively discuss all relevant aspects of the election.
Of course I'll defer to the mods, but this is my opinion.
I fully agree with you. Which parties are dovish or hawkish is very significant and should be OK to mention. It's also totally appropriate to say that a party favors "transfer" of Arabs from land controlled by Israel. What we need to steer clear of is calling any party pro-apartheid, let alone pro-genocide, because those terms obviously could provoke objections.
I posted this last night but will re-up - Sanae Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide reelection victory in Japan’s snap elections last night, aided, apparently, by appealing to disaffected young Japanese. As we see in Europe frequently; it’s a good reminder that the more hard-edged modern right is everywhere and plays on similar tropes
While the LDP regularly wins a majority, this was their best election in history in terms of seats won. One can only hope a center-left government manages to exist for more than 4 years sometime in the next 100 years.
If Elon Musk thinks he can influence the 2026 midterms with his would-be PAC, his track record in 2025 shows once again he's an amateur influencer at best.
Per the Hill article, Musk donated $10 million to Nate Morris in the KY-SEN race. That's right, Morris. Not the two leading GOP candidates Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron but Morris.
However, in late June, Musk gave $5 million each to super PAC tied to House and Senate Republican leadership, as well as $5 million to Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
Up through December, the tech mogul maintained a relatively low profile in the political sphere. He made an appearance at a White House dinner during the state visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November.
In mid-December, Musk contributed another $5 million each to the two Republican super PACs. And this month, he gave $10 million to a super PAC supporting Nate Morris, who is running to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a source familiar with the matter shared with The Hill.
Musk, who is the world’s richest person, spent at least $250 million boosting President Trump’s 2024 campaign, making him by far the top donor of the cycle. Following Trump’s election win, the tech billionaire cemented himself in the president’s inner circle and secured a wide-ranging role in the new administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
However, the cost-cutting initiative proved highly controversial, as DOGE sought to slash large swaths of government funding and make steep cuts to the federal workforce.
Musk’s political influence was also tested in a key race for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court last April. Despite spending $12 million to support the conservative candidate via his super PAC, America PAC, the liberal candidate ultimately won.
iron clad laws, rules, regs, and protocols about data and lists access, storage and transmission, taxpayer and medical information, it was all grossly violated. They had teenage interns looking though data that is only supposed to be released pursuant to a court warrant, feeding that stuff into unsecured LLM's and other potential attack vectors. The DOGE thing alone is going to require a separate investigation and prosecution, from Musk, all the way down to interns like "Big Balls".
It should now be assumed that all internal govt databases, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Treasury, IRS, Tax records have been infiltrated, compromised, and and made vulnerable to a whole range of bad actors. And that was just the first couple of weeks of trumps term. There have been hundreds of crimes since then, at all levels.
Musk is the scalp we must, MUST take to make an example of to all the other tech bro knobs. “Disruption” can apply to innovation, not a country with rule of law.
Also Peter Thiel merits investigation – especially if any of the above-mentioned internal government databases were made available to and used by Palantir.
Well, we had DOGE Coin and DOGE, both of which had Elon Musk's influence one way or another.
The only difference is that DOGE itself was Musk's agenda. Nevertheless, he clearly bit off the name from Dogecoin, which was started by two dumbass software engineers by the name of Bill Markus and Jackson Palmer as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrency. Then later on, Dogecoin fired up in stock via Reddit word of mouth with the likes of Musk and then Game Stop being key drivers for this. I'm still trying to understand how a video game store business thinks dabbling in bitcoin is a good idea.
I've always referred to the Department of Government Efficacy as Dogecoin just because it's that big of a joke. Like we really want a corporate billionaire tycoon like Musk to bring in his manic, draconanian corporate decision making to manage the government budget.
L.A. Mayor: The 40 candidates running have not yet placed their names on the ballot. They still are required to get signatures of city voters to get on the ballot. Not all of them will qualify; it is a difficult task to get enough valid sigs. There will be a lot of candidates, though. Is Zuma Dogg running this year? How about Angelyne?
Jeff Johnson of St. Cloud (not the Jeff Johnson of Maple Grove who lost the 2014 and 2018 MN-Gov elections) withdraws after his 22 year old daughter was murdered by her husband over the weekend. Truly tragic
Scott Jensen, who lost the MN-Gov election in 2022 is withdrawing from the gubernatorial race and entering the Auditor Race. Jensen, a physician, does not have a background in accounting, though that id not a requirement to be elected State Auditor.
I doubt it. The caucuses yielded inconclusive results and jts exceedingly unlikely anyone gets 60% of the delegates at the State convention, which means likely no GOP endorsement before the late summer primary.
Lisa Demuth won the straw polls with a small plurality over Kendall Qualls, with Lindell close behind. Scott Jensen finished 4th and as of today dropped down to Auditor.
The party held their caucuses as scheduled. And there was a straw poll done for governor, and delegates were selected, but there was no straw poll for the senate race.
GA-Gov: idk if this race could be developing much better for us. Burt Jones, Trump’s endorsed candidate, had a $14 million negative ad campaign taken out against him by allies of Chris Carr, who is now in last place. Then, last week, a geriatric MAGA billionaire enters, aiming his $40 million at tearing down the most electable Republican, Brad Raffensperger. Now, new polling points to Jones in first but far short of a majority to avoid a runoff. In second? The geriatric MAGA billionaire. We just need to coalesce around someone other than Keisha Lance Bottoms in the likely Democratic runoff.
Tried this with Charlie Crist. The eventual ads with all of his flip flops will turn off voters and make him seem untrustworthy. I don't think his past views on abortion & voting restrictions will help with motivating minority turnout.
Bottoms, again, seems kind of run-of-the-mill to me despite some tumult in her mayoralty and connection to the Biden admin, but I agree that people should support someone different - perhaps Jason Esteves.
I don’t think Bottoms is run of the mill, otherwise much of the Atlanta establishment wouldn’t have endorsed Esteves over her. She seems to have a lot of vulnerabilities that someone like Esteves does not have.
LA-5: Republican state Rep. Dixon McMakin is the first major candidate to drop out, possibly to coalesce support behind Trump-endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez, who isn't from the district.
PA-1: Battleground Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick announced his re-election today and has a fundraising advantage over his likely Democratic opponent, Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie.
I know that Wesley Hunt of course prefers himself for the U.S. Senate, and seems to enjoy running for office, but do you think he personally prefers Cornyn or Paxton? Saying it doesn't matter to him is the obvious answer. Anyone have deeper insight or educated guesses?
Do you have anything constructive to add? Otherwise, you're just trolling.
VA, NJ & NYC would disagree.
So would Minnesota.
And CO. I’d argue CO is actually a bit stronger than MN (Dems have done better when it comes to state legislative seats in CO than MN).
WISC: Chris Taylor and Wisconsin Dems have collectively raised over $3.3 million since January 1. Maria Lazar? Less than $200,000
https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/wisdems-following-disastrous-fundraising-report-from-right-wing-extremist-maria-lazar-wisdems-and-taylor-campaign-on-offense-with-over-3-million-raised-during-pre-primary-period/
Someone here recently said that Lazar seemed to be taking one for the team by running in this election, and that even Wisconsin Republicans didn't see it as winnable considering the results of last year's election. That may explain why Lazar isn't raising much money.
That being said, I'd still like to see some polling here.
I’d like to see some polling too. It’s a good reminder that the polls have underestimated the liberal candidate in the past two cycles.
It also should be noted that an outside group could try to make a last minute play here by donating a bunch of money to the WI GOP and them spending money on behalf of Lazar. However, given the political environment, that seems unlikely.
That was me, but also there is a huge enthusiasm gap - a Lazar win doesn't flip the majority, and a Taylor win grows it, but the energy is asymmetrical - I was on an organizing call with a group that does postcards for Dems - 250k of the first wave of WISC postcards were assigned within 24 hrs. Dems are fired up, no matter the race's context.
I honestly don't get why Delgado is continuing to primary Hochul. It makes sense why he initially announced, but the writing's on the wall. He should preserve his dignity and try to salvage what relationships he can so he can maybe run for something in the future, not continue this quixotic campaign for god knows what reason.
You're probably right. I'll vote for him, but he's a sure loser, barring some cataclysmic event that's not on the horizon.
I think he wanted to cut in line of Tish James but I dont think he ever had much of a chance with Hochuls support upstate. He should have stayed in congress.
Anyone from VA here that can comment on how the VA Supreme Court might rule on the redistricting effort ??
From my limited understanding as a non-lawyer, I think much of the complaint hinges on arcane legislative procedure, which I think SCOVA would defer to the Legislature to set their own rules.
I follow Sam Shirazi on social media. He says that while the VA Supreme Court leans conservative, they're nonpartisan and originalist. Not like the partisan antics here in NC, OH, AR and elsewhere.
Sam Shirazi (a lawyer who writes a lot on Virginia politics) said that Democrats' appeal of the Tazewell judge's ruling will likely succeed, which will then allow the redistricting referendum to go on the ballot in April.
TX Senate. University of Houston poll:
Crockett 47 Talarico 39
Paxton 38 Cornyn 31 Hunt 17
Poll also has all three Republicans running 2-4 points ahead of the Democrats with 10-12% undecided.
https://www.uh.edu/hobby/primary2026/
How reliable is that polling?
The pollster has a fairly decent track record from what I've been able to gather.
I hope TX voters know what they're doing. I REALLY don't want to see Ken Paxton stinking up the U.S. Senate come January 2027.
Emerson shows the opposite result. Talarico is up by 8 points and he's doing better with Hispanics (and winning whites by more)
My gut tells me Talirico will do well in the Hispanic community.
Why?
He's been doing a lot of outreach and has been endorsed by Bobby Pulido and the state Tejano dems. He's the only one running Spanish language ads.
Meanwhile Crockett is creating AI slop ads for online points.
What I find most interesting about this poll is the unfavorability/net favor ability:
"Among these five candidates, Talarico has the highest net-favorability rating (20%), followed by Hunt (11%), Crockett (9%), Paxton (-7%) and Cornyn (-10%)."
Talarico and Hunt are also lesser known by the public than the other three.
If only Talarico can get through the primary, he's better positioned to win the general as most of us suspect.
Talarico really needs to start blanketing the state (if he hasn’t yet started).
He's already heavily outspending Crockett
Crocket has better name recognition.
Being the anti-Trump voice on TV can help a ton in a Dem primary (Dan Goldman in NY).
My understanding is Talarico has outraised & outspent her by a big margin thus far.
And while I certainly agree that Talarico is the better candidate in the general, I think a big Blue Wave could still carry Crockett over the line. Especially if it is Paxton.
Some in the "I am not gonna vote for the Black Lady" crowd have hopefully learned their lesson.
🤞🏼
Crockett has better name recognition? That's open to interpretation. Both Crockett and Talarico have comparable name recognition but in their own way of putting themselves in the orbit media wise.
Months before Talarico announced his Senate run, he had been doing interviews with Joe Rogan and others (even Rogan suggested Talarico run for POTUS). While Crockett has made headlines on numerous occasions, so has Talarico with Jubilee and other platforms.
The polls right now indicate a competitive TX-SEN primary race but I don't see how this indicates name recognition is what is factoring in. With 12% undecided, anything goes at this point.
Older people who vote consistently in Democratic primaries don’t watch those interviews while Crockett is on cable news regularly.
Are we sure Talarico's media appearances since 2025 have not reached enough older people? He's appeared on Fox News as far back as in August 2025 to talk about TX redistricting but announced his Senate campaign the following month.
Black voters in TX for sure are gravitating towards Crockett but older people on the other hand, it depends on the age range.
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/fox-news-will-cain-james-talarico-b2806938.html
Multiple polls show that's the car
Case
He had a super bowl ad in Houston, a weak area for him
Wow. Talarico's on it.
If he wins the primary, I can only imagine what kind of media advertising he's going to do in the general election. Seems to have a good grasp of demographics.
Maybe it’s hopium or copium, but I struggle believing those Democratic hispanic numbers. I guess we’ll find out in three weeks.
The Republican primary numbers look fantastic—we want a runoff there with Paxton solidly in first. This poll shows the perfect scenario on that front.
General election favorables are Paxton -8 and Talarico +20.
FWIW the poll is a week old, and primary polling is much more volatile
I pointed this out in last night's open thread, but I'd figure more people would see it today, given the shock special election results in LA and TX these past weekends.
NC has a 50-seat state Senate and 120 seat state House of Representatives, all have 2-year terms. NC GOP has a gerrymandered supermajority in the state Senate (30 seats) and one seat short of one in the state House (71).
I looked at the GOP state Senate seats that were won between the 50-65% range: potentially nine are up for grabs (six needed for an outright majority, five for the LG to break a tie), including Phil Berger and his right-hand woman Amy Galey.
I estimate roughly half of those 71 House seats were won in the same 50-65% margin. NC Democrats only need to flip 12 of those seats to net a majority. I think in a massive blue wave election not only can the state House flip control, but maybe almost a supermajority a la Virginia. It's much harder for the state Senate given how Phil Berger is dug in, but one can hope.
Trump & the GOP are right to be scared. Things can snowball in a negative direction quickly.
Bad polls. Bad results. Bad fundraising. Bad coverage. Dispirited base. Worse polls. Worse fundraising. Worse fundraising. Triage mode. Worse coverage. Lower spirits. Terrible results.
On the exact opposire on the other side.
2-3 pt loss balloons to 5-7, then 10-12. And maybe even worse. Have not seen that for a while.
That's why I'm hoping for a reverse 2010 specifically for NC.
And Phil Berger has long overdue payback coming.
The tipping point to flip the NC state house is around Trump+10. State senate is tougher at around Trump+13.
In the state house there are 8 GOP-held districts won by any statewide Democrat besides Josh Stein. Hunt, Jackson, Marshall, and Green ran the table on 25, 35, 37, and 105. Additionally Green carried 59, 62, and 63 and Jackson won 73. That's 57 seats, 4 away from a majority (and 3 from a tie). To get over the hump you have to pick off seats non-stein Dems narrowly lost like 9, 64, 74, 82.
In the state senate easiest flips are 7 and 11. Hunt and Jackson narrowly won 7, Marshall and Green narrowly lost it. The four ran the board on 11. 4 and 34 are sleeper targets, they were close in some races though only Stein carried them. Still need one more to tie and two to flip.
True. The thing is, there will be some depressed GOP turnout this year given that 1) their party controls the WH and Congress, and 2) midterm elections.
The question is how bad it will get and will that open the door for an upset or two. Now former governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate will definitely get some Republicans off the couch. But the question is, will those Rs reliably vote the party line, or will they vote for the Dem candidates out of spite?
Because Republicans got a rude awakening by taking the Latino vote for granted.
I think a good night would be getting back to the 55 seats (gain of 6) we had after 2018.
I think we can do way better than gaining 6 state House seats and 2 state Sen seats this year, esp with MUCH better party leadership and Cooper running for US. Senate.
I doubt any race where a Republican regularly gets over 60% of the vote is going to be particularly competitive.
If loyal Republicans sit out or leave their legislative election choices blank, the chances of an upset loss go up.
Berger, the most powerful guy in N.C. politics only won his race in 2024 by 54%. Then you take into account that he has a serious primary challenger this year. He loses his primary or heavily damaged, he’s vulnerable to losing his power outright.
Ok, he clearly is a potential target, but that has more to do with Berger than the lean of his seat. Most legislators in Trump +20 seats are not quite this unpopular.
After losing the special election to fill the remainder of the late Sylvester Turner's term in Texas CD 18 to Christian Menefee, Amanda Edwards has announced that she is suspending her campaign for the full term in November. However, this comes too late to remove her name from the March ballot, where it will appear with active candidates Menefee and Congressman Al Green.
I've got a question for the community here. As you may know, Israel will be having an election this fall - its first since the founding of The Downballot. My question is, are we as a community mature enough to discuss this election, and Israeli political geography more generally, without anyone pushing the conversation toward the forbidden topic? Or is this an election that we shouldn't talk about here?
If nothing else, thank you for mentioning this, as I hadn't been paying attention to when Israeli elections would be.
I'd tread carefully but I'm fine with it as long as the discussion as long as there's transparency about the issues being discussed outside of the forbidden topic. Perhaps a disclaimer mentioning "forbidden topic" along with the issues that can be talked about would be a good start.
I've had limited discussion here before about Israel but the problems it has domestically within the country as it relates to the income inequality problem Israelis face. Considering that there are different political parties represented in Israeli Parliment, I am interested to hear what candidates are proposing policy wise that doesn't relate to the forbidden topic.
Oooooh.
I’d say it’s a narrow line and I’d defer to the mods. I don’t think it’s a secret that everybody here would like to see Bibi in jail and his Kahanist allies humiliated by the electorate. Like Zero Cool said a discussion of polling, seat projections, and domestic policy questions unrelated to THAT subject should be fair game.
But it’s a tough needle to thread.
Just as we can discuss the always-evolving *format* of the Dem Pres Primary without touching on race itself, I think we can discuss the Israeli election in a straightforward, just the polls/results sort of way.
The trick to both is constant vigilance from the mods to keep things from going astray.
There's little drama anyway. It will be a far right government. The only question is how far right and whether Netanyahu or Bennett will be PM.
I would like to point out that Naftali Bennett’s ruling coalition was the broadest in Israel’s history, and it included the Arab-Israeli party led by Mansour Abbas.
Whatever his flaws, Bennett’s government is a hell of a lot better than what they have now. Sadly Rabin-style politics are not returning
Deferring to the mods of course, but I would vote yes.
I agree with other people that discussions of domestic political issues, polls, projections, etc. should be fair game.
I would even go farther to say that I would be fine with objective statements about parties' or candidates' stances on the forbidden issue, so long as we remain purely objective and don't place value judgements on those statements. To me this is similar to how we discuss objective facts of who receives AIPAC support in American elections while not placing outright value judgements on that support/lack of support. And although I can sometimes make guesses as to individual commenters' personal opinions, I am still fine with that. The reality is that the forbidden topic is relevant in Israeli politics and will likely play a role in who gains or loses support. If we are to discuss Israeli elections then we should be able to objectively discuss all relevant aspects of the election.
Of course I'll defer to the mods, but this is my opinion.
I fully agree with you. Which parties are dovish or hawkish is very significant and should be OK to mention. It's also totally appropriate to say that a party favors "transfer" of Arabs from land controlled by Israel. What we need to steer clear of is calling any party pro-apartheid, let alone pro-genocide, because those terms obviously could provoke objections.
And obviously there is a left wing and a right wing position unlike what some have claimed here.
I still don't think anyone should discuss the election here but I'll defer to the mods.
One more thing: If the Netanyahu government is unable to get its budget pass, the election will happen automatically – and sooner than this fall.
No, my view is that it will inflame tensions and should not be discussed.
I posted this last night but will re-up - Sanae Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide reelection victory in Japan’s snap elections last night, aided, apparently, by appealing to disaffected young Japanese. As we see in Europe frequently; it’s a good reminder that the more hard-edged modern right is everywhere and plays on similar tropes
While the LDP regularly wins a majority, this was their best election in history in terms of seats won. One can only hope a center-left government manages to exist for more than 4 years sometime in the next 100 years.
If Elon Musk thinks he can influence the 2026 midterms with his would-be PAC, his track record in 2025 shows once again he's an amateur influencer at best.
Per the Hill article, Musk donated $10 million to Nate Morris in the KY-SEN race. That's right, Morris. Not the two leading GOP candidates Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron but Morris.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5727198-musk-political-fray-big-2026-midterm-donations/
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However, in late June, Musk gave $5 million each to super PAC tied to House and Senate Republican leadership, as well as $5 million to Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
Up through December, the tech mogul maintained a relatively low profile in the political sphere. He made an appearance at a White House dinner during the state visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November.
In mid-December, Musk contributed another $5 million each to the two Republican super PACs. And this month, he gave $10 million to a super PAC supporting Nate Morris, who is running to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a source familiar with the matter shared with The Hill.
Musk, who is the world’s richest person, spent at least $250 million boosting President Trump’s 2024 campaign, making him by far the top donor of the cycle. Following Trump’s election win, the tech billionaire cemented himself in the president’s inner circle and secured a wide-ranging role in the new administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
However, the cost-cutting initiative proved highly controversial, as DOGE sought to slash large swaths of government funding and make steep cuts to the federal workforce.
Musk’s political influence was also tested in a key race for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court last April. Despite spending $12 million to support the conservative candidate via his super PAC, America PAC, the liberal candidate ultimately won.
DOGE was a government demolition initiative – NOT a cost-cutting initiative. There is almost no indication that it really saved much money.
iron clad laws, rules, regs, and protocols about data and lists access, storage and transmission, taxpayer and medical information, it was all grossly violated. They had teenage interns looking though data that is only supposed to be released pursuant to a court warrant, feeding that stuff into unsecured LLM's and other potential attack vectors. The DOGE thing alone is going to require a separate investigation and prosecution, from Musk, all the way down to interns like "Big Balls".
It should now be assumed that all internal govt databases, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Treasury, IRS, Tax records have been infiltrated, compromised, and and made vulnerable to a whole range of bad actors. And that was just the first couple of weeks of trumps term. There have been hundreds of crimes since then, at all levels.
Musk is the scalp we must, MUST take to make an example of to all the other tech bro knobs. “Disruption” can apply to innovation, not a country with rule of law.
Also Peter Thiel merits investigation – especially if any of the above-mentioned internal government databases were made available to and used by Palantir.
Well, we had DOGE Coin and DOGE, both of which had Elon Musk's influence one way or another.
The only difference is that DOGE itself was Musk's agenda. Nevertheless, he clearly bit off the name from Dogecoin, which was started by two dumbass software engineers by the name of Bill Markus and Jackson Palmer as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrency. Then later on, Dogecoin fired up in stock via Reddit word of mouth with the likes of Musk and then Game Stop being key drivers for this. I'm still trying to understand how a video game store business thinks dabbling in bitcoin is a good idea.
I've always referred to the Department of Government Efficacy as Dogecoin just because it's that big of a joke. Like we really want a corporate billionaire tycoon like Musk to bring in his manic, draconanian corporate decision making to manage the government budget.
L.A. Mayor: The 40 candidates running have not yet placed their names on the ballot. They still are required to get signatures of city voters to get on the ballot. Not all of them will qualify; it is a difficult task to get enough valid sigs. There will be a lot of candidates, though. Is Zuma Dogg running this year? How about Angelyne?
Very good catch. Thank you, I've corrected.
MN-Gov:
The Republican field thins today.
Jeff Johnson of St. Cloud (not the Jeff Johnson of Maple Grove who lost the 2014 and 2018 MN-Gov elections) withdraws after his 22 year old daughter was murdered by her husband over the weekend. Truly tragic
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/governor-candidate-jeff-johnson-drops-out-of-race-after-daughter-killed-in-saint-cloud/
Scott Jensen, who lost the MN-Gov election in 2022 is withdrawing from the gubernatorial race and entering the Auditor Race. Jensen, a physician, does not have a background in accounting, though that id not a requirement to be elected State Auditor.
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/scott-jensen-drops-out-of-minnesota-governor-race-launches-campaign-for-auditor/
Is there an attempt to clear the field for Demuth (or someone else)?
I doubt it. The caucuses yielded inconclusive results and jts exceedingly unlikely anyone gets 60% of the delegates at the State convention, which means likely no GOP endorsement before the late summer primary.
Didn't Kendall Qualls win the caucus despite not being considered the main frontrunner?
Lisa Demuth won the straw polls with a small plurality over Kendall Qualls, with Lindell close behind. Scott Jensen finished 4th and as of today dropped down to Auditor.
Oh yeah how did the MN-Sen (D) caucuses go?
There was no senate straw polls taken by the DFL on Tuesday.
-I'm a delegate
Oh ok I thought you said those were coming up soon
The party held their caucuses as scheduled. And there was a straw poll done for governor, and delegates were selected, but there was no straw poll for the senate race.
Horrific. Two prospective candidates having their 22y/o daughters murdered about a week apart is such a terrible coincidence.
Who was the other one?
Austin Beutner was running for Mayor of Los Angeles, and has very understandably withdrawn.
GA-Gov: idk if this race could be developing much better for us. Burt Jones, Trump’s endorsed candidate, had a $14 million negative ad campaign taken out against him by allies of Chris Carr, who is now in last place. Then, last week, a geriatric MAGA billionaire enters, aiming his $40 million at tearing down the most electable Republican, Brad Raffensperger. Now, new polling points to Jones in first but far short of a majority to avoid a runoff. In second? The geriatric MAGA billionaire. We just need to coalesce around someone other than Keisha Lance Bottoms in the likely Democratic runoff.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/02/rick-jacksons-campaign-for-governor-resets-fight-for-maga-base-in-georgia/
I understand his past issues, but doesn't it feel like Duncan would be a slam dunk to win a general at this point?
We don’t need a new convert here to win. Esteves seems to have the same potential without the downsides of Duncan or Bottoms.
Don’t think he can make into the runoff, let alone winning the nomination.
Tried this with Charlie Crist. The eventual ads with all of his flip flops will turn off voters and make him seem untrustworthy. I don't think his past views on abortion & voting restrictions will help with motivating minority turnout.
Bottoms, again, seems kind of run-of-the-mill to me despite some tumult in her mayoralty and connection to the Biden admin, but I agree that people should support someone different - perhaps Jason Esteves.
I don’t think Bottoms is run of the mill, otherwise much of the Atlanta establishment wouldn’t have endorsed Esteves over her. She seems to have a lot of vulnerabilities that someone like Esteves does not have.
Best case would have been if McBath had been able to run as the Dem nominee.
My favorite is Jason Esteves but I can't vote there.
https://www.wafb.com/2026/02/09/state-rep-dixon-mcmakin-pulls-out-louisianas-5th-congressional-district-race/
LA-5: Republican state Rep. Dixon McMakin is the first major candidate to drop out, possibly to coalesce support behind Trump-endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez, who isn't from the district.
Well, there goes the candidate with the most entertaining name
And I thought McLovin was badass enough as someone who saw Superbad in the movie theater on opening weekend back in 2007.
Strangely enough, the actor who played McLovin/Fogel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, is only three years younger than McMakin at the age of 36.
https://subscribe.phillyburbs.com/restricted?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.phillyburbs.compa-1st-congressional-district-us-rep-brian-fitzpatrick-reelection-campaign-cash-2026-midterms-harvie%
PA-1: Battleground Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick announced his re-election today and has a fundraising advantage over his likely Democratic opponent, Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie.
I am like 90% sure he loses if November 2026 is anything like it was in November 2025.
I know that Wesley Hunt of course prefers himself for the U.S. Senate, and seems to enjoy running for office, but do you think he personally prefers Cornyn or Paxton? Saying it doesn't matter to him is the obvious answer. Anyone have deeper insight or educated guesses?
He feuds a lot with Cornyn on social media. Seems like a lot of bad blood.
How very grown up of Wesley Hunt to do this! /s