I remember back in 2013 when the government shutdown happened, Obama and the Democrats strategically chose not to cave in to the demands of the GOP to prevent it.
However, I don't recall after the shutdown ended did it have much impact on the 2014 midterms. Maybe I'm mistaken.
Johnson has literally no valid excuse to put off swearing in Rep. Adelita Grijalva now. He's protecting the sexual predator in the Oval Office and the rest of his enablers.
I expect AZ AG Kris Mayes to sue him if he doesn't answer by the end of today.
Does the map conform to Oregon's requirement that district be connected by transportation links? i.e. no water contiguity or empty land connecting parts of districts together
The group I'm volunteering with, Respect MO Voters, has a whole policy team made up of volunteer lawyers who plan on fighting back when state republicans inevitably try to stop our initiative from getting on the ballot. The group working on the gerrymander veto referendum, People Not Politicians, is much better funded, so I expect they are even more prepared to deal with republican obstacles. Respect MO Voters is almost all volunteers and raises money from Missouri sources only while People Not Politicians pays its signature gatherers and is getting national help.
I’m not a leader in the organization or anything, but I’d guess that sharing the Respect MO Voters website with people you know in Missouri would be helpful.
The Hill has reported that former Sen. John E. Sununu will lauch in NH soon
I must say, I'm not a huge fan of people like Janet Mills and Elise Stefanik delaying announcements for months and expecting us to be surprised when they do announce
I just can’t imagine why someone who was a relatively reasonable Republican in the Senate back when it was a functioning body that had self respect would want to be in the Senate as it is now.
American’s views on the economy turned more negative in the third quarter with deepening concerns about jobs, inflation and the outlook, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
Together with blame for the shutdown aimed at the president and congressional Republicans, those views dragged down President Donald Trump’s net approval rating on the economy to 42% approving and 55% disapproving.
The -13 net approval on the economy is the lowest of any CNBC survey during either of Trump’s two terms.
53% blame Trump and Rs for shutdown, 37% Ds. 44 approve - 52 disapprove Trump overall. And all these results are with a 40 R / 38 D / 22 I sample of 1,000 adults.
That 44% still approve of Trump is astonishing. I suspect the hangers-on are mostly motivated by the border. I hope Dems are prepared for the land mines Trump has ready for them on the border, crime, and gender. I'm not confident they will be.
The hangers on are motivated by partisanship. Roughly 1/3 of the country today will approve of a republican president no matter what. Presumably similar for a democratic president, though I'd guess lower (20%?) because we're far more willing to critique our own officials.
That leaves us the other ~10% to account for. For them, he's getting approval from about 30-50% of the people that are conservative or conservative leaning but do not support a republican in any/all situations. That group approves of him because (1) the negative consequences of his actions have not appreciably impacted their lives yet, and (2) they like what he is doing because they are conservatives. They're not out there shaking their fists at 90% of his policies but coming back around because of immigration issues. They're conservatives, they support conservative policies.
"Conservative policies" exist on a continuum so wide at this point that it renders the concept of self-identified "conservatives" as moot. That's why I'm astonished the number is still 44%. The Nikki Haley wing of the party must all still be entirely onboard and if they haven't cracked yet, I struggle to see how they will.
Even if the pain finds its way to them and the number slips further, any hypothetical disapproval below this 44% would be a mirage. Anyone still in the tank for him now would be won back with the faintest cage-rattling about culture war issues. That's why, nearly a year removed from election 2024, I'd like to see "election do-over" polling. That would give us a clearer look at where things stand now.
I don't think it's really possible to poll that with any accuracy. But no doubt in my mind, Trump would win a "snap" election today, against Harris or any other flesh and blood Demmycrat (ie, anything short of Democratic Jesus).
I think he'd even beat Obama (if became eligible), but less certain about that.
Hart/POS surveys have been more Trump friendly than not this cycle, so this isn't a bad result.
But I'm surprised you're surprised; half the country is in its own right wing media bubble, and the full impacts of tariffs/shutdowns have yet to be felt, although inflation is remaining persistent. With increased polarization it takes more tangible impacts to shift the needle than it used to, especially when culture war issues are so prominent.
I am surprised that it's 44% on a straight up or down verdict, primarily because I don't think half the country is in its own right-wing media bubble. I think a third of the country is in a "no media" bubble, leading more people to defer to a "vibes" momentum when given the "approve vs. disapprove" binary.
That poll has been somewhat favorable for Trump this year. He's at -8 now but was at -5 in August, -7 in April, and -4 in March so this is his worst result yet.
The worst thing that could happen is for there to be a multi-candidate field. But I'm not convinced that Fetterman will run, or that if he does, he'll run as a Democrat.
I've personally wondered for some time if Fetterman will retire early. He certainly seems miserable in his job. On top of that, I don't think he particularly cares if it would set up an expensive special election in PA that Dems would have to defend -- lord knows he's antagonized Dems a lot as of late.
Bottom line - Fetterman is not fit for office as Senator and is becoming a liability to himself and Democrats by continuing to serve as Senator, especially with his lack of properly managing everyone's expectations about his health problems.
Yeah - his brain is cooked. I truly believe the stroke is really the root cause of him becoming this terrible senator. It’s well documented how strokes can cause changes in personality and temperament (in addition to diminished cognitive functioning). He probably should be in a long-term stroke care facility, not the US Senate.
I have a electoral history question: Why did Democrats choose to run the National Review endorsed neoconservative leaning "New Democrat" Joe Lieberman against Lowell Weickler, a liberal Republican who voted against conservative judicial nominees and supported universal healthcare??
Was Lowell Weickler like Lincoln Chafee was as Senator? Seems like both as politicians would have had plenty in common as liberal Republicans in the Senate if they working with each other.
I guess I would question what you mean by "Democrats choos[ing] to run" someone, this was nearly 40 years ago and Senate elections didn't really look anything like what we have now. Lieberman was the incumbent Attorney General and sensed an opening, I imagine.
national republicans wanted weicker gone as well, he regularly voted with us on social programs, in an attempt to stymie reagan's gutting of safety net post 1980.
written as a fawning tribute to Buckley, read years ago but iirc Buckley worked behind scenes to help lieberman win primary, and then endorsed as you said and massively helped drag lieberman over the line. Weicker was a close ally of Ted Kennedy during their respective fights to stop Reagan gutting of the social safety net. I wouldn't be surprised if many democratic voters did in fact vote for Weicker based on the 1% margin for Lieberman.
Was Lowell Weickler like Lincoln Chafee was as Senator? Seems like both as politicians would have had plenty in common as liberal Republicans in the Senate if they working with each other.
Billboards are up in Newton, Iowa! why Newton instead of densely populated Des Moines? because we did the research, and the wind factory with the most jobs in IA-01 is in Newton. We've got two billboards running. (I don't think I can paste the picture here? so here's a Bluesky post with a link to ActBlue, hint hint.) https://bsky.app/profile/rlmiller.bsky.social/post/3m3fmcubjm22s
Excellent - IA-01 was the closest House race won by a Republican.
IA-03 should be close again, and without the R incumbent in IA-02 running for senate, maybe, as in 2018, Democrats could pick up 3 IA US House seats as well as flip that US Senate seat.
The internet is a cesspool…honestly, this is the only place where I ever post anything and I sure as hell wouldn’t be writing the gross stuff Platner did. I understand it’s bullshit that we are held to a higher standard but people should spend way less time spewing crap on online message boards in general. What a waste.
He was still in his 30s in 2013. It's dumb of him to say, even if he was only trolling. The rape comment is more damaging than the others, I think. It's a lot harder to imagine him making it through this. Good odds that there's at least one more headline to be made out of this.
Considering the timing of the release I expect it's opposition research from Mills or her allies. Jump in and damage her main primary opponent right off the bat. It's a smart strategy, whatever we might think of her candidacy.
I care...a lot. First of all, they are reprehensible and I've certainly never said or written anything like that. Second of all, they could very well render him unelectable. I care first and foremost about beating Collins and it's becoming clearer by the day that Mills is the best choice to do that....
Quite honestly, as someone who has a Reddit account, I prefer to be anonymous and not put my first and/or last name in my user name or mention it at all in the comments. It's not anyone's business.
It's hard enough to remain completely anonymous in the world of social media these days. Reddit is one of the better platforms but it's wide reach can still be a liability for anyone wanting to seek public office if they aren't too careful with what they say and share.
I would contest claims about Reddit being better. Some of the meanest, nastiest people I’ve ever seen online have been from there. It’s not as bad as, say, 4chan but it certainly isn’t very nice.
Fair although what I am talking about is not having to put your first and last name in your Reddit user profile. Other than that, I do not consider the platform to necessarily be “safe.”
Back in the days of AOL, all user names were anonymous for the most part as you didn’t have your full name present. More privacy was assured even while the process of getting to know other users had been rather creepy in retrospect. Otherwise, unless you were reported to AOL TOS, you as a user could say anything without crazy crap going on.
MySpace was the last real social media platform that had certain level of ethics with user privacy even while the founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson sold it to News Corp. Anderson, the default friend on MySpace, was adamant on not wanting user data sold to third party advertisers.
What was he thinking not scrubbing his social media before he ran? Honestly that concerns me more than the comments because that tells me as a candidate he's not ready for primetime.
He did, according to the original report. The problem is that there are places archiving reddit comments.
The part that was enabled this to come out isn't that he failed to scrub it to the best of his abilities, it's that someone was able to figure out what his username was and check one or more archival sites to see what was there.
Fundraising numbers now in for September for VA HD. cycle thru 9/30/25:
Democrats have outraised Republicans in 13 of the 14 R-held district Del. Helmer considers winnable. The 14th challenger, Andrew Payton, HD-34, is just a few thousand behind the incumbent. Half of HD-34's registered voters are in the city of Harrisonburg, who are usually less likely to turn out than folks in the more Republican areas of the district.
A similar district, HD-49: about half the registered voters are in the city of Danville, also usually less likely to turn out than folks in the more Republican areas. Open seat contest features 2 members of the Danville City Council - a doctor (cardiologist Gary Miller, D) vs a Republican landlord, who spent more than any other candidate to get elected to the city council and now has Koch support.
Charles Gaba's fundraising page for candidates in districts ranging from Harris +9 to -15
What's this repeat post about?
I remember back in 2013 when the government shutdown happened, Obama and the Democrats strategically chose not to cave in to the demands of the GOP to prevent it.
However, I don't recall after the shutdown ended did it have much impact on the 2014 midterms. Maybe I'm mistaken.
Johnson has literally no valid excuse to put off swearing in Rep. Adelita Grijalva now. He's protecting the sexual predator in the Oval Office and the rest of his enablers.
I expect AZ AG Kris Mayes to sue him if he doesn't answer by the end of today.
It's just going to make congressional Rs look even worse each day Johnson puts it off.
Does the map conform to Oregon's requirement that district be connected by transportation links? i.e. no water contiguity or empty land connecting parts of districts together
Interesting, thanks.
Missouri: "the U.S. Constitution “expressly vests the power to apportion federal congressional districts in the state legislatures.”
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a similar argument two years ago.
The group I'm volunteering with, Respect MO Voters, has a whole policy team made up of volunteer lawyers who plan on fighting back when state republicans inevitably try to stop our initiative from getting on the ballot. The group working on the gerrymander veto referendum, People Not Politicians, is much better funded, so I expect they are even more prepared to deal with republican obstacles. Respect MO Voters is almost all volunteers and raises money from Missouri sources only while People Not Politicians pays its signature gatherers and is getting national help.
thank you for what you're doing! My group doesn't have a big email list in MO but is there something that we can do to help?
I’m not a leader in the organization or anything, but I’d guess that sharing the Respect MO Voters website with people you know in Missouri would be helpful.
Your group is doing excellent work. Thanks!
do you have an actblue express link you could share so Missouri users herein (not me I'm from the lovely northeast) can help your group out?
I’d say go to respectmovoters.org if you’re interested in donating/volunteering
Former Maryland Gov. Hogan is 69, not 70
The Hill has reported that former Sen. John E. Sununu will lauch in NH soon
I must say, I'm not a huge fan of people like Janet Mills and Elise Stefanik delaying announcements for months and expecting us to be surprised when they do announce
I just can’t imagine why someone who was a relatively reasonable Republican in the Senate back when it was a functioning body that had self respect would want to be in the Senate as it is now.
American’s views on the economy turned more negative in the third quarter with deepening concerns about jobs, inflation and the outlook, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
Together with blame for the shutdown aimed at the president and congressional Republicans, those views dragged down President Donald Trump’s net approval rating on the economy to 42% approving and 55% disapproving.
The -13 net approval on the economy is the lowest of any CNBC survey during either of Trump’s two terms.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/trumps-economic-approval-rating-drops-says-cnbc-survey.html
53% blame Trump and Rs for shutdown, 37% Ds. 44 approve - 52 disapprove Trump overall. And all these results are with a 40 R / 38 D / 22 I sample of 1,000 adults.
That 44% still approve of Trump is astonishing. I suspect the hangers-on are mostly motivated by the border. I hope Dems are prepared for the land mines Trump has ready for them on the border, crime, and gender. I'm not confident they will be.
The hangers on are motivated by partisanship. Roughly 1/3 of the country today will approve of a republican president no matter what. Presumably similar for a democratic president, though I'd guess lower (20%?) because we're far more willing to critique our own officials.
That leaves us the other ~10% to account for. For them, he's getting approval from about 30-50% of the people that are conservative or conservative leaning but do not support a republican in any/all situations. That group approves of him because (1) the negative consequences of his actions have not appreciably impacted their lives yet, and (2) they like what he is doing because they are conservatives. They're not out there shaking their fists at 90% of his policies but coming back around because of immigration issues. They're conservatives, they support conservative policies.
"Conservative policies" exist on a continuum so wide at this point that it renders the concept of self-identified "conservatives" as moot. That's why I'm astonished the number is still 44%. The Nikki Haley wing of the party must all still be entirely onboard and if they haven't cracked yet, I struggle to see how they will.
Even if the pain finds its way to them and the number slips further, any hypothetical disapproval below this 44% would be a mirage. Anyone still in the tank for him now would be won back with the faintest cage-rattling about culture war issues. That's why, nearly a year removed from election 2024, I'd like to see "election do-over" polling. That would give us a clearer look at where things stand now.
I don't think it's really possible to poll that with any accuracy. But no doubt in my mind, Trump would win a "snap" election today, against Harris or any other flesh and blood Demmycrat (ie, anything short of Democratic Jesus).
I think he'd even beat Obama (if became eligible), but less certain about that.
This country is in deep, deep trouble.
Really? What do you base this on? I've not seen any evidence of this being the case.
Hart/POS surveys have been more Trump friendly than not this cycle, so this isn't a bad result.
But I'm surprised you're surprised; half the country is in its own right wing media bubble, and the full impacts of tariffs/shutdowns have yet to be felt, although inflation is remaining persistent. With increased polarization it takes more tangible impacts to shift the needle than it used to, especially when culture war issues are so prominent.
I am surprised that it's 44% on a straight up or down verdict, primarily because I don't think half the country is in its own right-wing media bubble. I think a third of the country is in a "no media" bubble, leading more people to defer to a "vibes" momentum when given the "approve vs. disapprove" binary.
If anti-trans shit is still effective in *this* environment, then the country is beyond saving. (And that, frankly, might very well be the case.)
That poll has been somewhat favorable for Trump this year. He's at -8 now but was at -5 in August, -7 in April, and -4 in March so this is his worst result yet.
Another NJ poll. Sherrill up 52-45.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/polling/sherrill-still-holds-52-45-lead-over-ciattarelli-in-fdu-poll/
Correct me if I’m wrong — Sherrill seems to be polling better, no?
Essentially the same. The Emerson poll was the one non-biased poll since August that showed the race other than 5-7.
Good to know. Thanks Paleo.
No problem. I should add that it's more likely that this will end up a 5 point race rather than 7, not that there's a great difference between them.
Why do you think it'll be relatively close?
The third term party "jinx" in New Jersey.
Isn't a 5 pt margin bigger than last Gov. election?
Paleo, did you vote yet? Lot of my friends are waiting to vote in person early/EDay. Meanwhile my mail ballot was accepted back on October 3rd.
Yes, I dropped mine into the drop box two days ago.
Her polling is reminding me of that of a lot of Democrats who end up tanking in the home stretch. I think she loses by a point or two.
Seth London, Lis Smith and Jake Auchincloss' neoliberal Majority Democrats PAC donated $100,000 to Angie Craig. How is this legal?
My guess is that was to her super PAC not her official campaign. Thanks to citizens United, those contributions are unlimited.
A longtime Fetterman loving reporter writes a puff piece about him on Axios, justifying his actions in the name of big tent.
Deluzio, Lamb and Boyle looking at the 2028 primary and take digs at each other, and Fetterman.
https://www.axios.com/2025/10/16/john-fetterman-senate-primary-pennsylvania
The worst thing that could happen is for there to be a multi-candidate field. But I'm not convinced that Fetterman will run, or that if he does, he'll run as a Democrat.
I've personally wondered for some time if Fetterman will retire early. He certainly seems miserable in his job. On top of that, I don't think he particularly cares if it would set up an expensive special election in PA that Dems would have to defend -- lord knows he's antagonized Dems a lot as of late.
Bottom line - Fetterman is not fit for office as Senator and is becoming a liability to himself and Democrats by continuing to serve as Senator, especially with his lack of properly managing everyone's expectations about his health problems.
I'd be surprised if he runs again. Tv talking head seems a better fit for him.
Except that he's not particularly good at talking anymore.
Yeah - his brain is cooked. I truly believe the stroke is really the root cause of him becoming this terrible senator. It’s well documented how strokes can cause changes in personality and temperament (in addition to diminished cognitive functioning). He probably should be in a long-term stroke care facility, not the US Senate.
The article says he may run for President lmfao
On a ticket with Manchin?
I have a electoral history question: Why did Democrats choose to run the National Review endorsed neoconservative leaning "New Democrat" Joe Lieberman against Lowell Weickler, a liberal Republican who voted against conservative judicial nominees and supported universal healthcare??
Idk but I voted for Sen. Weicker in that election and still regard it as one of my best votes.
They thought he would be the strongest candidate I guess.
Why try to vote out someone who is sympathetic to your party?
Was Lowell Weickler like Lincoln Chafee was as Senator? Seems like both as politicians would have had plenty in common as liberal Republicans in the Senate if they working with each other.
They were probably thinking of his father John Chaffee, who was also a liberal GOP Senator.
Would we run a strong candidate but more conservative against Bernie/King since they are not Democrats?
Numbers game. All about the color of the jersey.
I guess I would question what you mean by "Democrats choos[ing] to run" someone, this was nearly 40 years ago and Senate elections didn't really look anything like what we have now. Lieberman was the incumbent Attorney General and sensed an opening, I imagine.
national republicans wanted weicker gone as well, he regularly voted with us on social programs, in an attempt to stymie reagan's gutting of safety net post 1980.
They also never forgave him for the anti-Nixon role he played on the Watergate Committee.
there's an entire section on this in the book: a man and his president's https://www.amazon.com/Man-His-Presidents-Political-Odyssey/dp/0300163843
written as a fawning tribute to Buckley, read years ago but iirc Buckley worked behind scenes to help lieberman win primary, and then endorsed as you said and massively helped drag lieberman over the line. Weicker was a close ally of Ted Kennedy during their respective fights to stop Reagan gutting of the social safety net. I wouldn't be surprised if many democratic voters did in fact vote for Weicker based on the 1% margin for Lieberman.
Was Lowell Weickler like Lincoln Chafee was as Senator? Seems like both as politicians would have had plenty in common as liberal Republicans in the Senate if they working with each other.
I think Weicker was like Chafee but...more. Like a genuinely liberal Republican.
Billboards are up in Newton, Iowa! why Newton instead of densely populated Des Moines? because we did the research, and the wind factory with the most jobs in IA-01 is in Newton. We've got two billboards running. (I don't think I can paste the picture here? so here's a Bluesky post with a link to ActBlue, hint hint.) https://bsky.app/profile/rlmiller.bsky.social/post/3m3fmcubjm22s
Excellent - IA-01 was the closest House race won by a Republican.
IA-03 should be close again, and without the R incumbent in IA-02 running for senate, maybe, as in 2018, Democrats could pick up 3 IA US House seats as well as flip that US Senate seat.
Platner made comments on Reddit blaming rape victims.
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2025/10/17/politics/elections/graham-platner-black-people-tipping-rape-reference-reddit-posts/
I must confess that I have never made comments downplaying rape online, nor calling for violence, nor wondering whether black people tip or not.
The internet is a cesspool…honestly, this is the only place where I ever post anything and I sure as hell wouldn’t be writing the gross stuff Platner did. I understand it’s bullshit that we are held to a higher standard but people should spend way less time spewing crap on online message boards in general. What a waste.
He was still in his 30s in 2013. It's dumb of him to say, even if he was only trolling. The rape comment is more damaging than the others, I think. It's a lot harder to imagine him making it through this. Good odds that there's at least one more headline to be made out of this.
Considering the timing of the release I expect it's opposition research from Mills or her allies. Jump in and damage her main primary opponent right off the bat. It's a smart strategy, whatever we might think of her candidacy.
Honestly I think these comments help Platner in a GE in Maine.
With male voters maybe, but women?
I care...a lot. First of all, they are reprehensible and I've certainly never said or written anything like that. Second of all, they could very well render him unelectable. I care first and foremost about beating Collins and it's becoming clearer by the day that Mills is the best choice to do that....
Quite honestly, as someone who has a Reddit account, I prefer to be anonymous and not put my first and/or last name in my user name or mention it at all in the comments. It's not anyone's business.
It's hard enough to remain completely anonymous in the world of social media these days. Reddit is one of the better platforms but it's wide reach can still be a liability for anyone wanting to seek public office if they aren't too careful with what they say and share.
I would contest claims about Reddit being better. Some of the meanest, nastiest people I’ve ever seen online have been from there. It’s not as bad as, say, 4chan but it certainly isn’t very nice.
Fair although what I am talking about is not having to put your first and last name in your Reddit user profile. Other than that, I do not consider the platform to necessarily be “safe.”
Back in the days of AOL, all user names were anonymous for the most part as you didn’t have your full name present. More privacy was assured even while the process of getting to know other users had been rather creepy in retrospect. Otherwise, unless you were reported to AOL TOS, you as a user could say anything without crazy crap going on.
MySpace was the last real social media platform that had certain level of ethics with user privacy even while the founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson sold it to News Corp. Anderson, the default friend on MySpace, was adamant on not wanting user data sold to third party advertisers.
What was he thinking not scrubbing his social media before he ran? Honestly that concerns me more than the comments because that tells me as a candidate he's not ready for primetime.
Not 100%, but i think they're was an attempted scrubbing, but these were uncovered.
He did, according to the original report. The problem is that there are places archiving reddit comments.
The part that was enabled this to come out isn't that he failed to scrub it to the best of his abilities, it's that someone was able to figure out what his username was and check one or more archival sites to see what was there.
Today's the last day for postcards for Virginia: have been encouraging others to write postcards and spent as much of today as i can doing so myself
Details: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/10/17/2349000/-Last-Call-Last-Day-for-Postcards-for-Virginia-Elections
Phone-banking and fundraising ongoing:
Really appreciated the podcast last week with Delegate Dan Helmer about the Virginia House of Delegates elections. Commented there: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/why-virginia-dems-think-they-can/comment/164904615
Fundraising numbers now in for September for VA HD. cycle thru 9/30/25:
Democrats have outraised Republicans in 13 of the 14 R-held district Del. Helmer considers winnable. The 14th challenger, Andrew Payton, HD-34, is just a few thousand behind the incumbent. Half of HD-34's registered voters are in the city of Harrisonburg, who are usually less likely to turn out than folks in the more Republican areas of the district.
A similar district, HD-49: about half the registered voters are in the city of Danville, also usually less likely to turn out than folks in the more Republican areas. Open seat contest features 2 members of the Danville City Council - a doctor (cardiologist Gary Miller, D) vs a Republican landlord, who spent more than any other candidate to get elected to the city council and now has Koch support.
Charles Gaba's fundraising page for candidates in districts ranging from Harris +9 to -15
https://blue24.org/state-races/virginia
He also has a fundraising page for the 27 districts redder than that, Harris -16 to -68
https://blue24.org/state-races/virginia-value-pack
Phone-banking options: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/10/3/2346647/-Phonebank-for-Virginia-Candidates-Lots-of-options-to-fit-for-your-schedule
No Kings! No Kleptocracy! No Kakistocracy!