Obituaries: Former Rep. Charlie Hatcher (D-GA) has died at 87. He served rural southwest Georgia from 1980 until his primary defeat by Sanford Bishop in 1992, who still has the seat.
When I saw the name, I thought the Hatcher that beat Ogles had died for a second. Seems there’s been more than one Charlie Hatcher that’s been in politics.
Not only are both from the South, they also put emphasis on agriculture in their political careers. Of course, the living Tennessean was the state commissioner, but the late Georgian represented Jimmy Carter's lifelong residence in Plains and was an advocate for the peanut industry. At one point he claimed GA-2 had a third of peanuts produced in the country.
Yep. Trying to "both sides" your way through life can sometimes lead you to be universally despised for not going hard enough on something. But the Manchins are nonetheless an institution here.
When creating Dem gerrymanders I try to keep minority districts intact if it's possible to draw a suitable map without splitting minority voters; Districts 4, 5, 7, and 8 remain majority black/majority minority.
District 1, the lone Republican district, shifts from Trump +16.8 in 2024 to Harris +5.2. District 6, the closest district under the current map, is also made ever so slightly more Democratic. Not by much, only +0.5, but it doesn't hurt. I might see if I can make it bluer, although that would require an even uglier looking map.
I made the map using the 2024 Presidential election partisan data, which seems to be a good baseline for standard Democratic performance. Comparing this map with the current map under the results for the 2024 senate race, Hogan doesn't win any additional districts that he didn't win under the current map. The only difference is that districts 2 and 3 would vote more Republican in the 2024 senate race under this map compared to the current one, but in almost every circumstance it shouldn't be possible for Republicans to flip these districts aside from a potential wave election.
Maryland's biggest issue is its geography. On the one hand, a large chunk of the state's Republican voters are confined to one area, making it easy to keep them confined to one district, as in the current map. But it just so happens that this area is very annoying to gerrymander. Congressional districts have to be contiguous, obviously, and the Delmarva only has two points where it connects to the rest of the state by land or bridge. Because of that, making district 1 bluer than D+5 is a bit challenging, especially because once you start to reach the bluer areas of the state, you start running out of room to include those areas before you hit the population limit.
In reality, the map is moreso 6 D - 0 R - 2 C, although in the MAGA era its getting harder for Republicans to win swing districts that aren't a near perfect split. In any case, this map will almost always lead to better results for Democrats than the current one. I might come back later and see if I can make districts 1 and 6 bluer, I think it's possible.
I'll elaborate a little: leaked texts showed he didn't care about a children's hospital in Philadelphia visiting Washington or care about Medicaid cuts.
Excuse you, he is a heterodox thinker who isn't afraid to buck his party and stand up to "the groups" like the people running a children's hospital or paralyzed veterans. Democrats will never win back working-class voters without doing these common-sense, practical things, like going on Fox News instead of doing their job. Stop being a woke elite Jaz - Ruy Texeria (probably)
It’s bizarre that Lamb was originally looked at as the more conservative Democrat but is actually the more loyal Democrat and has moved more to the left since 2020.
Fetterman originally ran as a progressive then became more conservative. How very interesting.
I would be happy for Lamb to primary Fetterman’s ass.
I’d be over the moon if Fetterman resigned and Shapiro replaces him with Lamb. Words I never thought I would say in 2022. That said I think the effects of Fetterman’s stroke shouldn’t be discounted either. I’m curious to know if he would have been the same guy if he never had the stroke.
Agreed - I think we all fell for Fetterman's schtick. I tolerated this stuff from Manchin because he was the best we could do WV. In PA, we have lots of options. To be fair to Fetterman, I do think his stroke fundamentally changed his mental state.
If John Fetterman doesn't care about his job, he should resign from office. I would say the same thing
There is a night and day difference between centrist/moderate politicians who care about their constituents or would-be constituents (Mary Peltola immediately comes to mind in that regard) and centrist/moderate politicians like Fetterman who literally don't care about anything other than pushing whatever political agenda they support.
I'm not going to go into my political theory about the two valid modes of representation (that will be for an article at my own Substack publication), but I'll just say that Fetterman ain't following either one of them.
It is imperative that, if Fetterman runs for re-election as a Democrat, progressive and center-left anti-Fetterman Democrats should rally around one non-Fetterman candidate in the primary.
If, as it seems, we agree that John Fetterman might just care about his own profile, power, and prestige, yet still votes with the Democratic caucus 90% of the time, perhaps we should be strategic and not push him out of the party before a primary. The profile of someone who is in politics for power, means he could easily switch sides and vote 90% with Republicans.
Under this map, District 1 would now vote for Harris by 7.1 points, and District 6 would vote for Harris by 14.4 points (compared to +5.8 and +6.3, respectively). District 1 is now a Lean D district in most elections, and District 6 is effectively off the board entirely except for wave elections.
I also decided to try and make districts 2 and 3 a little more blue and now both districts are by all means identical in terms of their results in the 2024 senate race compared to the current map in place. In my new map they'd give Hogan a +0.1 and +1.4 margin of victory, respectively, compared to +1.4 and +0.4 under the current maps. Under the map I posted earlier, he would've won the districts by around 4 to 7 points. This doesn't really affect much in reality, but it does make the two districts a little bit more likely to hold if we ever find ourselves in a 2010 level environment again (but at that point I'm not sure two Maryland districts are going to be the deciding factor in who controls the house...)
The only real downside here is that District 8 is no longer majority-minority, but it was already *barely* majority-minority under the current maps (47% white) so I don't think it's a huge loss.
That's actually somewhat similar to, but better than, what Gov. Moore's redistricting commission put forth this year, which passed the State House but Ferguson and friends blocked in the Senate.
A lot of things have come together to make everyone's ideal non-ugly 8-0 maps look similar, like Frederick county getting more Dem and not needing to be cracked, Hoyer moving on and Dems no longer "needing" (I say this sarcastically) to suppress the black percentage of MD-05, Annapolis being blue enough these days that the eastern shore doesn't have to be cracked in a Dem seat...after that just sink some adjacent red areas into MD-07 and the rest of the state is easy.
"Tarrant County voters will have 92 fewer Election Day polling locations this November than they did during the 2022 midterm election.
On Sept. 1, the Tarrant County Commissioners Court approved a plan providing for 224 Election Day voting locations, down from 316 in 2022. The county also approved 47 early-voting locations, compared with 50 in 2022. The vote was 3-2.
The decision has received national attention, with voting rights advocates and local residents raising concerns that fewer locations could make it more difficult for some voters to reach the polls. More than 100 people spoke during the Commissioners Court meeting, which lasted more than eight hours."
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They are partnering with RideShare2Vote (https://rideshare2vote.com/) to help voters with rides to get to their new polling places. The website above opens with a pop-up page to make a donation.
At this point I think the big questions need to addressed in light of the USPS recent flagrant violations of court orders for ballots. More broadly speaking first what should be the course of action of Democratic aligned and voting rights groups?
For us in blue states that have Democratic or split legislatures, should people just opt to vote in person or is a drop box still safe, assuming our ballots arrive? What happens if you're in an all mail voting state like Oregon or Washington? What can state officials do to mitigate potential sabotage come November, or even earlier?
The flip side is what should folks in red states do or can do? I'm not even sure what Democratic officials can do here, perhaps educate and inform voters of polling places and how to best fill out their ballots to reduce error. It becomes especially concerning in low income and remote communities like in Arizona and Alaska, especially with many constituents lacking proficiency in English or the means to drive out to vote in person.
I like many, need and want clarity, not more uncertainty and anxiety at this point. We all do, or should understand the threats to society facing us, but it doesn't mean we need to mindlessly panic. Any guidance or insight here on what to do and future updates would help immensely.
Every person in this country, regardless of state or voting precinct, should assume their vote is threatened and do everything they can to minimize opportunity for anyone to interfere with their ballot being cast. That means voting in person (early if possible), delivering your ballot directly, or if you must vote by mail, do it as soon as possible, weeks in advance of the election. Every handoff is an opportunity for sabotage, theft, delay, etc. There is no such thing as being overly suspicious and prepared when they're openly televising their intentions.
Sigh, I would normally agree with you, but I can't be in New York during the in-person voting period, so I have no choice but to put an overseas absentee ballot in the mail and hope it gets counted.
I am old-school so I like to always go on Election Day and vote in-person. However, I tell all of my lazy and/or busy friends to just go vote early in-person as it's the most secure way. It looks like every state except for Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire (odd) and Pennsylvania (whatttt?) offer early in-person voting.
Republicans in the legislature wanted to reduce the days for early voting, but it didn't fly, this time. Who knows what they will be cooking up in the next session.
So I’ve got a hypothetical question for posters here.
Let’s say a gerrymandering ban is successfully passed, and new Dem seats in major cities are born.
Which cities that do not currently have seats due to gerrymandering might regain seats? And which gerrymandered seats in general might be most likely to be reconfigured, GOP- or Dem-held?
Bonus question: are there any politicians who might be able to take advantage of such a ban and run for Congress who currently could not?
The Cincy seat would be deep blue. Could also imagine seats based in smaller OH cities (Dayton, Akron etc.) Obviously, KC's seat would be safe. Raleigh and Durham could probably each have their own seats. Savannah perhaps?
-Well, a few seats in New England would turn into swing seats, for starters, like MA-1 or RI-2.
-NYC gains a new Republican seat, probably in Brooklyn. And Lawler is saved when the Hudson Valley is redrawn to have a solid Dem seat for Ryan.
-I imagine rural parts of the Gottheimer and Mejia seats get joined with NJ-7 to make it solidly red, then remaining red areas create a Republican swing district. Same scenario in South Jersey with the Conaway seat.
-I think the parts of the Elfreth and Hoyer seats in MD would also create a Republican swing seat, as well as the 6th becoming red again.
-The 2022 NC map is restored.
-SC-1 becomes Democratic leaning and the 6th moves further into the Midlands and Pee Dee in exchange.
-Savannah and Augusta, GA get combined and a Kingston-Allen primary ensues. Maybe the mayor of Savannah (forgot his name) would run.
-Rich McCormick's seat is based solely in north Fulton County; he gains affluent neighborhoods of Atlanta and loses rural areas like Dahlonega. Would be solid D.
-The seat Mike Collins is leaving behind would become a swing district after adding Rockdale and Newton as well as the bulk of Henry counties.
-The 2016-2022 Florida map would be restored, but this time adding an extra blue seat in Jacksonville to make up for Republican gains in Miami. The Tallahassee seat would now extend to Gainesville. And Diaz-Balart would represent something much more compact.
-The 2024 Alabama map stays.
-Tennessee goes back to pre 2022 like Dante said.
-KY-6 adds Frankfort and Morehead, moving slightly left.
-OH-7 and 13 become Dem leaning swing seats in Cleveland and Akron/Youngstown, respectively. And the 15th becomes compact in Columbus and leans Dem.
-Indianapolis is split into two Dem seats and additional swing one. And the 2nd exchanges Elkhart for Kokomo.
-Chicago adds a few Republican seats, and the bacon manders of the 13th and 17th are removed.
-WI-1 goes further into Milwaukee and leans Dem. Similar situation with WI-3 and Madison.
-Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Iowa City, Waterloo, etc. get a seat in Iowa. Solid Dem.
-Des Moines gets a Dem leaning seat like pre 2012.
-MO-2 takes parts of St. Louis and becomes blue.
-Little Rock joins with the Mississippi River towns and becomes solidly blue.
-TX-3, 5, 9, 12, 15, 23, 26, 32, 35 and 38 either become or stay Dem leaning.
-Oklahoma City gets a Dem seat
-NE-2 turns into an even Bluer Dot
-MT-1 becomes slightly bluer by exchanging Kalispell for Helena
-CO-8 becomes solidly Dem, CO-5 becomes even swingier
-NM-2 becomes Republican and loses ABQ
-WA-8 becomes a very vast district covering everywhere from Point Roberts to JB Lewis to Wenatchee
-OR-4 becomes Republican leaning and a compact district in Eugene and Bend is made instead
-NV-4 takes outer Republican areas of Vegas including Henderson and becomes a red seat
-CA-1, 3, 13, 21, 22, 27, 45, 47 and 49 become Republican leaning
Incidentally, Kevin of Primary School noted that, should Jacksonville get a blue seat, Angie Nixon could try for that failing her Senate bid.
And if CO-8 becomes blue, and Rutinel blows it for whatever reason, I could see him getting a primary from the left, who apparently aren’t too pleased with his move to the center from what I’ve heard. Maybe Joe Salazar.
I live in Chappaqua, NY, so I guess I’d end up in the Pat Ryan seat. Which would be awesome, I love him. Or if he runs for higher office, and it’s a really blue now-open seat, James Skoufis could try, or someone really lefty like Sarahana Shrestha might give it a go. (Another poster mentioned her as a possibility for Ryan’s current seat, if he goes for Senate — I think this hypothetical seat would be a bit better for a DSA-er like her.)
If Nashville and Memphis get seats back, I could see Justin Pearson easily getting the latter — and I wonder if Justin Jones could try the same for Nashville. Him or Aftyn Behn. For more center-leaning Dems, maybe someone like Bo Mitchell could try.
A Brooklyn-based GOP seat would be fascinating. Don’t know which GOP politicos would go for it. Alec Brook-Krasny? (Or Inna Vernikov. *shudders*)
-In the Brooklyn seat I could see a primary between Vernikov and Steve Chan. Under that map Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke would be drawn together, and I suspect the latter would retire. The Ryan seat would include all of Dutchess, your base of northern Westchester, and Ryan's base in Ulster.
-I remembered the name of the mayor of Savannah. Van Johnson. Him or one of the Savannah-based Democratic legislators could do it. There's more of a bench there than Augusta, it seems.
-Beth Liston for OH-15 would be a good fit. And Brian Poindexter would be safe in the 7th. I'd also shore up Greg Landsman so maybe he could get a credible progressive primary challenge.
-Shelli Yoder could run again for one of the Indianapolis seats, as it would likely have to stretch down to her base in Bloomington for there to be enough Democrats. Our geography in Indiana is terrible.
-Even though Nikki Budzinski and Eric Sorensen would be toast in IL, and Bill Foster would probably have to retire so Lauren Underwood could succeed him, Mike Bost would have to moderate again, because I would add East St. Louis back, which was once the base of his seat.
-My map in Iowa unfortunately gives an ideal place for Mariannette Miller-Meeks to run, as my new heavily blue seat would not include her residence in Ottumwa. Funny, because her current district also does not include Ottumwa.
-Kendra Horn could come back in Oklahoma, this time as an incumbent that could be entrenched at some point.
-I forgot to mention Arizona the first time around. I would scrap the Schweikert and Hamadeh seats, make one solidly blue, and one solidly red. Not the "mostly red, some blue" thing they have going right now.
-Janelle Bynum and Andrea Salinas would be forced into a primary in OR. Don't know much about them, but know Salinas was a carpetbagger into her current seat, so she could do something else.
-Steven Horsford could run for NV-1 if Dina Titus would retire under a fair map.
Quite a long list there, pretty dispiriting to see it all laid out like this. And it will only get longer in 2028 when other states get in on this rush. Starting to feel not ideal that a national gerrymandering ban after 2029 could instantly send like 60 to 70 representatives packing. Hope we have the votes with room to spare, because a lot of Dems would be ending their own careers too.
Under a fair map I'd still have a lot of swing districts that are winnable for Dems. I think seats should be drawn by getting a composite percentage total statewide over the past decade for both parties, then drawing a number of seats that lines up to that percentage (i.e. Connecticut is like 60-40 Democratic, so there should be two swing seats that narrowly voted for Trump, but Courtney and Hayes can still win).
I have tried to make a Massachusetts seat anything less than solidly Dem, and it's pretty damn hard to do. Rhode Island might be more doable, but it would still be tough--and they might lose their 2nd congressional seat anyway.
Personally, I think it's more accurate to use the President 2024 data to determine the lean of federal districts. That's especially true for a state like MA, where Charlie Baker's gubernatorial reelection is included in the 2016-2020 data set and creates a major outlier for assessing partisan lean.
Fair. Similar situation with KY in 2019 and 2023. KY-6 under my fair map is composite Tilt D because of those years, where it would be Lean R normally.
For NJ, making a red (and even then, not deep red) NJ-7 means that you can't easily make another light red or purple district in North Jersey under 2020 numbers (DRA doesn't have 2024 numbers yet). I'm not sure what you're saying about Conway's seat, but I doubt it'd get much redder, as pairing Burlington County with Ocean County was nonsensical on the part of the 2010 redistricting commission (I don't know if the district did that prior to 2012, but my point still stands). Mercer County is much more similar to Burlington than Ocean is.
I know. But if we made the 2nd a bit more competitive but still red leaning, extending further into Gloucester County, the 1st could absorb urban parts of Burlington, and the Pine Barren parts could go to an Ocean area district.
IMO congressional maps shouldn't need to be proportional to a state's electorate. Some states just don't have the political geography to make that realistic (or in the case of states like Massachusetts, mathematically impossible). The fact NJ leans itself to giving the Democrats a couple of extra seats is balanced out by states where the opposite is true.
It should be done in the best manner possible. If it can't be done, still draw them compact but fair. My MA map isn't that bad, and it makes seats more competitive.
https://rollcall.com/2026/09/03/former-rep-charles-hatcher-dies-at-age-87/
Obituaries: Former Rep. Charlie Hatcher (D-GA) has died at 87. He served rural southwest Georgia from 1980 until his primary defeat by Sanford Bishop in 1992, who still has the seat.
When I saw the name, I thought the Hatcher that beat Ogles had died for a second. Seems there’s been more than one Charlie Hatcher that’s been in politics.
Not only are both from the South, they also put emphasis on agriculture in their political careers. Of course, the living Tennessean was the state commissioner, but the late Georgian represented Jimmy Carter's lifelong residence in Plains and was an advocate for the peanut industry. At one point he claimed GA-2 had a third of peanuts produced in the country.
I'm leaning towards joining my local Indivisible chapter sometime before the election, so that's something I'm looking forward to.
I figured once Joe Manchin told me to stay involved in politics, I would. But he probably wouldn't approve of this group.
No, he'd prefer Divisive. :-)
Hey now, Joe Manchin isn't a divisive figure at all. Everybody hates him!
Yep. Trying to "both sides" your way through life can sometimes lead you to be universally despised for not going hard enough on something. But the Manchins are nonetheless an institution here.
I realize that each Indivisible chapter is different, but my chapter is great and helps me focus on what is important and will make a difference.
The national group also sponsors some great trainings which can be found on their YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@indivisibleteam/videos
Decided to throw together a Maryland 8-0 gerrymander:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ccb262bb-8ff0-450c-afd2-64e546371fae
When creating Dem gerrymanders I try to keep minority districts intact if it's possible to draw a suitable map without splitting minority voters; Districts 4, 5, 7, and 8 remain majority black/majority minority.
District 1, the lone Republican district, shifts from Trump +16.8 in 2024 to Harris +5.2. District 6, the closest district under the current map, is also made ever so slightly more Democratic. Not by much, only +0.5, but it doesn't hurt. I might see if I can make it bluer, although that would require an even uglier looking map.
I made the map using the 2024 Presidential election partisan data, which seems to be a good baseline for standard Democratic performance. Comparing this map with the current map under the results for the 2024 senate race, Hogan doesn't win any additional districts that he didn't win under the current map. The only difference is that districts 2 and 3 would vote more Republican in the 2024 senate race under this map compared to the current one, but in almost every circumstance it shouldn't be possible for Republicans to flip these districts aside from a potential wave election.
Maryland's biggest issue is its geography. On the one hand, a large chunk of the state's Republican voters are confined to one area, making it easy to keep them confined to one district, as in the current map. But it just so happens that this area is very annoying to gerrymander. Congressional districts have to be contiguous, obviously, and the Delmarva only has two points where it connects to the rest of the state by land or bridge. Because of that, making district 1 bluer than D+5 is a bit challenging, especially because once you start to reach the bluer areas of the state, you start running out of room to include those areas before you hit the population limit.
In reality, the map is moreso 6 D - 0 R - 2 C, although in the MAGA era its getting harder for Republicans to win swing districts that aren't a near perfect split. In any case, this map will almost always lead to better results for Democrats than the current one. I might come back later and see if I can make districts 1 and 6 bluer, I think it's possible.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/john-fetterman-little-interest-senator-be74e7a3
John Fetterman...article explains itself
I'll elaborate a little: leaked texts showed he didn't care about a children's hospital in Philadelphia visiting Washington or care about Medicaid cuts.
And skipped a meeting with paralyzed vets to appear on his favorite station, Fox.
Excuse you, he is a heterodox thinker who isn't afraid to buck his party and stand up to "the groups" like the people running a children's hospital or paralyzed veterans. Democrats will never win back working-class voters without doing these common-sense, practical things, like going on Fox News instead of doing their job. Stop being a woke elite Jaz - Ruy Texeria (probably)
Conor Lamb: "John, if there is a decent bone left in your body, just quit. It’s an insult to decent people in our state for you to treat them and the office this way." https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/fetterman-rivals-pounce/
I wish he'd just resign already. He clearly doesn't want to do the job. I was very wrong about Conor Lamb.
It’s bizarre that Lamb was originally looked at as the more conservative Democrat but is actually the more loyal Democrat and has moved more to the left since 2020.
Fetterman originally ran as a progressive then became more conservative. How very interesting.
I would be happy for Lamb to primary Fetterman’s ass.
I’d be over the moon if Fetterman resigned and Shapiro replaces him with Lamb. Words I never thought I would say in 2022. That said I think the effects of Fetterman’s stroke shouldn’t be discounted either. I’m curious to know if he would have been the same guy if he never had the stroke.
Agreed - I think we all fell for Fetterman's schtick. I tolerated this stuff from Manchin because he was the best we could do WV. In PA, we have lots of options. To be fair to Fetterman, I do think his stroke fundamentally changed his mental state.
If John Fetterman doesn't care about his job, he should resign from office. I would say the same thing
There is a night and day difference between centrist/moderate politicians who care about their constituents or would-be constituents (Mary Peltola immediately comes to mind in that regard) and centrist/moderate politicians like Fetterman who literally don't care about anything other than pushing whatever political agenda they support.
I'm not going to go into my political theory about the two valid modes of representation (that will be for an article at my own Substack publication), but I'll just say that Fetterman ain't following either one of them.
It is imperative that, if Fetterman runs for re-election as a Democrat, progressive and center-left anti-Fetterman Democrats should rally around one non-Fetterman candidate in the primary.
Liked because I agree but, frankly, I don't see any way he can win a D primary race at this point, regardless of opponent(s).
If, as it seems, we agree that John Fetterman might just care about his own profile, power, and prestige, yet still votes with the Democratic caucus 90% of the time, perhaps we should be strategic and not push him out of the party before a primary. The profile of someone who is in politics for power, means he could easily switch sides and vote 90% with Republicans.
CA-48 poll done by Survey USA for the San Diego Union Tribune has Marni von Wilpert leading 45-42.
https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0877c725-6e44-47fe-9856-dcf799865671
So it actually wasn't that hard to create a better gerrymander of Maryland!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed403eaf-817c-466e-a887-a864a9ccc545
Under this map, District 1 would now vote for Harris by 7.1 points, and District 6 would vote for Harris by 14.4 points (compared to +5.8 and +6.3, respectively). District 1 is now a Lean D district in most elections, and District 6 is effectively off the board entirely except for wave elections.
I also decided to try and make districts 2 and 3 a little more blue and now both districts are by all means identical in terms of their results in the 2024 senate race compared to the current map in place. In my new map they'd give Hogan a +0.1 and +1.4 margin of victory, respectively, compared to +1.4 and +0.4 under the current maps. Under the map I posted earlier, he would've won the districts by around 4 to 7 points. This doesn't really affect much in reality, but it does make the two districts a little bit more likely to hold if we ever find ourselves in a 2010 level environment again (but at that point I'm not sure two Maryland districts are going to be the deciding factor in who controls the house...)
The only real downside here is that District 8 is no longer majority-minority, but it was already *barely* majority-minority under the current maps (47% white) so I don't think it's a huge loss.
That's actually somewhat similar to, but better than, what Gov. Moore's redistricting commission put forth this year, which passed the State House but Ferguson and friends blocked in the Senate.
https://marylandmatters.org/2026/01/21/moores-redistricting-commission-recommends-congressional-map-concept/
It's not clear if the same map would be used, altered, or a new commission would be convened next year if voters give the go-ahead.
Wow, I hadn't even seen that. It's crazy how similar they are... it's like convergent evolution
A lot of things have come together to make everyone's ideal non-ugly 8-0 maps look similar, like Frederick county getting more Dem and not needing to be cracked, Hoyer moving on and Dems no longer "needing" (I say this sarcastically) to suppress the black percentage of MD-05, Annapolis being blue enough these days that the eastern shore doesn't have to be cracked in a Dem seat...after that just sink some adjacent red areas into MD-07 and the rest of the state is easy.
This is quoted from https://tarrantdemocrats.org/. Tarrant county is in TX (around San Antonio IIRC.
⬇️
"Tarrant County voters will have 92 fewer Election Day polling locations this November than they did during the 2022 midterm election.
On Sept. 1, the Tarrant County Commissioners Court approved a plan providing for 224 Election Day voting locations, down from 316 in 2022. The county also approved 47 early-voting locations, compared with 50 in 2022. The vote was 3-2.
The decision has received national attention, with voting rights advocates and local residents raising concerns that fewer locations could make it more difficult for some voters to reach the polls. More than 100 people spoke during the Commissioners Court meeting, which lasted more than eight hours."
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They are partnering with RideShare2Vote (https://rideshare2vote.com/) to help voters with rides to get to their new polling places. The website above opens with a pop-up page to make a donation.
Tarrant County is Fort Worth. Bexar County is San Antonio. It's 268 miles from Fort Worth to San Antonio.
Thanks for the correction. I was too lazy to look it up.
Liked for honesty :)
I normally double check my facts.
At this point I think the big questions need to addressed in light of the USPS recent flagrant violations of court orders for ballots. More broadly speaking first what should be the course of action of Democratic aligned and voting rights groups?
For us in blue states that have Democratic or split legislatures, should people just opt to vote in person or is a drop box still safe, assuming our ballots arrive? What happens if you're in an all mail voting state like Oregon or Washington? What can state officials do to mitigate potential sabotage come November, or even earlier?
The flip side is what should folks in red states do or can do? I'm not even sure what Democratic officials can do here, perhaps educate and inform voters of polling places and how to best fill out their ballots to reduce error. It becomes especially concerning in low income and remote communities like in Arizona and Alaska, especially with many constituents lacking proficiency in English or the means to drive out to vote in person.
I like many, need and want clarity, not more uncertainty and anxiety at this point. We all do, or should understand the threats to society facing us, but it doesn't mean we need to mindlessly panic. Any guidance or insight here on what to do and future updates would help immensely.
Every person in this country, regardless of state or voting precinct, should assume their vote is threatened and do everything they can to minimize opportunity for anyone to interfere with their ballot being cast. That means voting in person (early if possible), delivering your ballot directly, or if you must vote by mail, do it as soon as possible, weeks in advance of the election. Every handoff is an opportunity for sabotage, theft, delay, etc. There is no such thing as being overly suspicious and prepared when they're openly televising their intentions.
Sigh, I would normally agree with you, but I can't be in New York during the in-person voting period, so I have no choice but to put an overseas absentee ballot in the mail and hope it gets counted.
I am old-school so I like to always go on Election Day and vote in-person. However, I tell all of my lazy and/or busy friends to just go vote early in-person as it's the most secure way. It looks like every state except for Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire (odd) and Pennsylvania (whatttt?) offer early in-person voting.
Indiana, ironically, has pretty robust early voting (called In-person Absentee) for 30 days prior to the election, so that's usually how I vote.
Republicans in the legislature wanted to reduce the days for early voting, but it didn't fly, this time. Who knows what they will be cooking up in the next session.
So I’ve got a hypothetical question for posters here.
Let’s say a gerrymandering ban is successfully passed, and new Dem seats in major cities are born.
Which cities that do not currently have seats due to gerrymandering might regain seats? And which gerrymandered seats in general might be most likely to be reconfigured, GOP- or Dem-held?
Bonus question: are there any politicians who might be able to take advantage of such a ban and run for Congress who currently could not?
Nashville and Memphis would get Dem seats back
as would Tampa (if it falls this year, Castor might hang on)
Batton Rouge and New Orleans would no longer be crammed into one seat
The Cincy seat would be deep blue. Could also imagine seats based in smaller OH cities (Dayton, Akron etc.) Obviously, KC's seat would be safe. Raleigh and Durham could probably each have their own seats. Savannah perhaps?
-Well, a few seats in New England would turn into swing seats, for starters, like MA-1 or RI-2.
-NYC gains a new Republican seat, probably in Brooklyn. And Lawler is saved when the Hudson Valley is redrawn to have a solid Dem seat for Ryan.
-I imagine rural parts of the Gottheimer and Mejia seats get joined with NJ-7 to make it solidly red, then remaining red areas create a Republican swing district. Same scenario in South Jersey with the Conaway seat.
-I think the parts of the Elfreth and Hoyer seats in MD would also create a Republican swing seat, as well as the 6th becoming red again.
-The 2022 NC map is restored.
-SC-1 becomes Democratic leaning and the 6th moves further into the Midlands and Pee Dee in exchange.
-Savannah and Augusta, GA get combined and a Kingston-Allen primary ensues. Maybe the mayor of Savannah (forgot his name) would run.
-Rich McCormick's seat is based solely in north Fulton County; he gains affluent neighborhoods of Atlanta and loses rural areas like Dahlonega. Would be solid D.
-The seat Mike Collins is leaving behind would become a swing district after adding Rockdale and Newton as well as the bulk of Henry counties.
-The 2016-2022 Florida map would be restored, but this time adding an extra blue seat in Jacksonville to make up for Republican gains in Miami. The Tallahassee seat would now extend to Gainesville. And Diaz-Balart would represent something much more compact.
-The 2024 Alabama map stays.
-Tennessee goes back to pre 2022 like Dante said.
-KY-6 adds Frankfort and Morehead, moving slightly left.
-OH-7 and 13 become Dem leaning swing seats in Cleveland and Akron/Youngstown, respectively. And the 15th becomes compact in Columbus and leans Dem.
-Indianapolis is split into two Dem seats and additional swing one. And the 2nd exchanges Elkhart for Kokomo.
-Chicago adds a few Republican seats, and the bacon manders of the 13th and 17th are removed.
-WI-1 goes further into Milwaukee and leans Dem. Similar situation with WI-3 and Madison.
-Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Iowa City, Waterloo, etc. get a seat in Iowa. Solid Dem.
-Des Moines gets a Dem leaning seat like pre 2012.
-MO-2 takes parts of St. Louis and becomes blue.
-Little Rock joins with the Mississippi River towns and becomes solidly blue.
-TX-3, 5, 9, 12, 15, 23, 26, 32, 35 and 38 either become or stay Dem leaning.
-Oklahoma City gets a Dem seat
-NE-2 turns into an even Bluer Dot
-MT-1 becomes slightly bluer by exchanging Kalispell for Helena
-CO-8 becomes solidly Dem, CO-5 becomes even swingier
-NM-2 becomes Republican and loses ABQ
-WA-8 becomes a very vast district covering everywhere from Point Roberts to JB Lewis to Wenatchee
-OR-4 becomes Republican leaning and a compact district in Eugene and Bend is made instead
-NV-4 takes outer Republican areas of Vegas including Henderson and becomes a red seat
-CA-1, 3, 13, 21, 22, 27, 45, 47 and 49 become Republican leaning
What a stellar, in-depth rundown Jaz! Thanks.
Incidentally, Kevin of Primary School noted that, should Jacksonville get a blue seat, Angie Nixon could try for that failing her Senate bid.
And if CO-8 becomes blue, and Rutinel blows it for whatever reason, I could see him getting a primary from the left, who apparently aren’t too pleased with his move to the center from what I’ve heard. Maybe Joe Salazar.
I live in Chappaqua, NY, so I guess I’d end up in the Pat Ryan seat. Which would be awesome, I love him. Or if he runs for higher office, and it’s a really blue now-open seat, James Skoufis could try, or someone really lefty like Sarahana Shrestha might give it a go. (Another poster mentioned her as a possibility for Ryan’s current seat, if he goes for Senate — I think this hypothetical seat would be a bit better for a DSA-er like her.)
If Nashville and Memphis get seats back, I could see Justin Pearson easily getting the latter — and I wonder if Justin Jones could try the same for Nashville. Him or Aftyn Behn. For more center-leaning Dems, maybe someone like Bo Mitchell could try.
A Brooklyn-based GOP seat would be fascinating. Don’t know which GOP politicos would go for it. Alec Brook-Krasny? (Or Inna Vernikov. *shudders*)
-In the Brooklyn seat I could see a primary between Vernikov and Steve Chan. Under that map Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke would be drawn together, and I suspect the latter would retire. The Ryan seat would include all of Dutchess, your base of northern Westchester, and Ryan's base in Ulster.
-I remembered the name of the mayor of Savannah. Van Johnson. Him or one of the Savannah-based Democratic legislators could do it. There's more of a bench there than Augusta, it seems.
-Beth Liston for OH-15 would be a good fit. And Brian Poindexter would be safe in the 7th. I'd also shore up Greg Landsman so maybe he could get a credible progressive primary challenge.
-Shelli Yoder could run again for one of the Indianapolis seats, as it would likely have to stretch down to her base in Bloomington for there to be enough Democrats. Our geography in Indiana is terrible.
-Even though Nikki Budzinski and Eric Sorensen would be toast in IL, and Bill Foster would probably have to retire so Lauren Underwood could succeed him, Mike Bost would have to moderate again, because I would add East St. Louis back, which was once the base of his seat.
-My map in Iowa unfortunately gives an ideal place for Mariannette Miller-Meeks to run, as my new heavily blue seat would not include her residence in Ottumwa. Funny, because her current district also does not include Ottumwa.
-Kendra Horn could come back in Oklahoma, this time as an incumbent that could be entrenched at some point.
-I forgot to mention Arizona the first time around. I would scrap the Schweikert and Hamadeh seats, make one solidly blue, and one solidly red. Not the "mostly red, some blue" thing they have going right now.
-Janelle Bynum and Andrea Salinas would be forced into a primary in OR. Don't know much about them, but know Salinas was a carpetbagger into her current seat, so she could do something else.
-Steven Horsford could run for NV-1 if Dina Titus would retire under a fair map.
Quite a long list there, pretty dispiriting to see it all laid out like this. And it will only get longer in 2028 when other states get in on this rush. Starting to feel not ideal that a national gerrymandering ban after 2029 could instantly send like 60 to 70 representatives packing. Hope we have the votes with room to spare, because a lot of Dems would be ending their own careers too.
Under a fair map I'd still have a lot of swing districts that are winnable for Dems. I think seats should be drawn by getting a composite percentage total statewide over the past decade for both parties, then drawing a number of seats that lines up to that percentage (i.e. Connecticut is like 60-40 Democratic, so there should be two swing seats that narrowly voted for Trump, but Courtney and Hayes can still win).
I have tried to make a Massachusetts seat anything less than solidly Dem, and it's pretty damn hard to do. Rhode Island might be more doable, but it would still be tough--and they might lose their 2nd congressional seat anyway.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b9696d62-b787-4832-b8fd-e59dc072e2f0
Here's one for MA that has three swing districts, including one Republican-leaning one.
*Seth Moulton is retiring, Dan Koh is expected to succeed him
MA-1: Richard Neal, safe D
MA-2: No incumbent, leans R
MA-3: Jim McGovern, safe D
MA-4: Lori Trahan, leans D
MA-5: *Dan Koh, safe D
MA-6: Katherine Clark, *Seth Moulton and Stephen Lynch, safe D
MA-7: Jake Auchincloss and Ayanna Pressley, safe D
MA-8: No incumbent, safe D (perhaps Auchincloss)
MA-9: Bill Keating, leans D
Personally, I think it's more accurate to use the President 2024 data to determine the lean of federal districts. That's especially true for a state like MA, where Charlie Baker's gubernatorial reelection is included in the 2016-2020 data set and creates a major outlier for assessing partisan lean.
Fair. Similar situation with KY in 2019 and 2023. KY-6 under my fair map is composite Tilt D because of those years, where it would be Lean R normally.
For NJ, making a red (and even then, not deep red) NJ-7 means that you can't easily make another light red or purple district in North Jersey under 2020 numbers (DRA doesn't have 2024 numbers yet). I'm not sure what you're saying about Conway's seat, but I doubt it'd get much redder, as pairing Burlington County with Ocean County was nonsensical on the part of the 2010 redistricting commission (I don't know if the district did that prior to 2012, but my point still stands). Mercer County is much more similar to Burlington than Ocean is.
I know. But if we made the 2nd a bit more competitive but still red leaning, extending further into Gloucester County, the 1st could absorb urban parts of Burlington, and the Pine Barren parts could go to an Ocean area district.
Very hastily made and terrible bacon manders but this is somewhat similar to what I had in mind. Cleaned up and made more compact, of course.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2324c52-d295-4e20-baa7-ef74e569352c
IMO congressional maps shouldn't need to be proportional to a state's electorate. Some states just don't have the political geography to make that realistic (or in the case of states like Massachusetts, mathematically impossible). The fact NJ leans itself to giving the Democrats a couple of extra seats is balanced out by states where the opposite is true.
It should be done in the best manner possible. If it can't be done, still draw them compact but fair. My MA map isn't that bad, and it makes seats more competitive.
Great summary!
I could have really gotten into this one as I've tried to draw a fair map of every state in the past, this is brief