While I disagree about what the polling writ large is showing, I do think this may end up being what we see with results. One theory I've had is that Harris will do way better with young voters than she is in polling and the main piece of evidence I've used is that while the horserace numbers tend to show it around Harris +10 with voters…
While I disagree about what the polling writ large is showing, I do think this may end up being what we see with results. One theory I've had is that Harris will do way better with young voters than she is in polling and the main piece of evidence I've used is that while the horserace numbers tend to show it around Harris +10 with voters 18-29, there have been a couple of polls of just 18-29 voters and those tend to be much better for her. And one such poll dropped today, the Harvard poll showed her up 61-30. It makes sense on a couple levels, the fist being just the really small numbers you'll get in this cohort in a horserace poll gives it a really high MOE. But also, it intuitively makes sense to me that a MAGA young voter is more likely to answer a poll than the rest of their age cohort and so you're getting a more MAGA sample unless you're really focusing on making sure you get a representative sample.
While I disagree about what the polling writ large is showing, I do think this may end up being what we see with results. One theory I've had is that Harris will do way better with young voters than she is in polling and the main piece of evidence I've used is that while the horserace numbers tend to show it around Harris +10 with voters 18-29, there have been a couple of polls of just 18-29 voters and those tend to be much better for her. And one such poll dropped today, the Harvard poll showed her up 61-30. It makes sense on a couple levels, the fist being just the really small numbers you'll get in this cohort in a horserace poll gives it a really high MOE. But also, it intuitively makes sense to me that a MAGA young voter is more likely to answer a poll than the rest of their age cohort and so you're getting a more MAGA sample unless you're really focusing on making sure you get a representative sample.