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Aug 5
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S Kolb's avatar

do not accept your negativity

AWildLibAppeared's avatar

I think anyone who thinks AES can't win isn't paying attention. He does have his work cut out for him, but he clearly can win. Here's how:

- Outreach to Black voters throughout the state. Not just Detroit, but also in places like Flint, Saginaw, Benton Harbor, and Muskegon. Show up in person and organize events. Go to church. He will need to maximize Black turnout to make up for any losses among swing and Islamaphobic voters. I imagine some type of rally with Obama would help a lot, too.

- Juice youth turnout. This shouldn't be a huge problem as young people were integral to his primary win, but there is no way he wins without maximizing turnout and enthusiasm on college campuses in Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Kalamazoo, and Mount Pleasant. A strong social media strategy will help as well, as obviously young people are dispersed throughout the state, too.

- Continue to clarify the "evolved" beliefs and do so clearly to reassure swing voters and limit losses there. He's already been doing this, but he could definitely do it a bit more.

- Affordability, affordability, affordability. Stop the Trump taxes on working people. And continue to criticize Republicans on Iran and other foreign policy issues (it has been working for him).

- Relentlessly attack Mike Rogers as being from Florida, not taking the role of Senator seriously, and being incapable of independence as he's a MAGA faithful and allied with Trump. And don't be afraid to highlight his racism (because there will be racism) while calling on everyone to rise above it.

In a Blue wave year, this type of strategy should help someone as progressive as AES win a state like Michigan. It is by no means a slam dunk to victory, but it's a clear path.

Toiler On the Sea's avatar

He needs to essentially run a perfect campaign (avoid the forbidden issue, avoid anything akin to a gaffe, tone down the class war lingo, avoid people such as Piker like the plague) AND likely get some help from low turnout of depressed R leaners, which polling shows are not enthused about the midterms. It's doable, especially if he goes on media and shows he's a regular, non-radical guy. Cook some pancakes on the morning news, kiss some puppies etc.

michaelflutist's avatar

Don't mention the "forbidden issue," because then you incite people to disagree that he needs to avoid it.

stevk's avatar

This is a pretty good blueprint...hopefully he follows it...

anonymouse's avatar

I think you’re right to be worried, but to say there is no winning coalition for him is crazy. The first part seems to have some basis in reality with the risk of his candidacy. However, he will be adequately funded and the party will pull out all the stops here to stop a Republican Senate win due to the national consequences.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Obviously Kirsten Gillibrand is not stupid and knows this seat is crucial to gain the majority, but considering her comments on AES (and Mamdani before him), I'm trepidatious about funds flowing with the speed that may well be needed.

JazElections's avatar

This was a big digest, and a lot to take in. Kudos to you authors!

However, there's some minor mistakes:

-The Chiefs stadium is moving *from* Missouri to Kansas, not *to* Missouri.

-Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver has two M's in his name.

-Don Huffines is not the incumbent Texas comptroller. That is Kelly Hancock, who he ousted in March. However, Dawn Buckingham is the incumbent land commissioner, and she was not labeled as such.

James's avatar

Don Huffines as in the new owner of Zorro Ranch in New Mexico?

JazElections's avatar

Yes, unfortunately. Now he's likely to hold statewide office in Texas.

He was a state senator but was defeated by Nathan Johnson in 2018, the nominee for attorney general.

James's avatar

Thought I recognized the name.

Jeff Singer's avatar

And it is "Emanuel Cleaver," one M. https://cleaver.house.gov/

JazElections's avatar

Without getting too opinionated since this site isn't designed for that, I'm pleased with last night's results in Michigan and look forward to winning in November.

MPC's avatar

I hope that the Stevens voters unite behind AES for November. I was surprised the primary was as close as it was.

AnthonySF's avatar

I think the online commentariat is way too focused on the primary supporters coming together (which is likely to happen) and way less on how a DSA-adjacent candidate is going to win over independents and soft R’s in a swing state

Mark's avatar

Bad polling or Bradley effect? Combination of both?

Oggoldy's avatar

The Dems will unite, independents are another matter entirey. I hope he manages to overcome the massive polling shortcoming he has going on. Maybe he'll get lucky as a wave baby. I certainly hope so.

MPC's avatar

Has there been a contest where the hot young guy won against an older, less photogenic candidate?

Oggoldy's avatar

Pretty privilege is absolutely a thing.

Also, this is a super weird/gross take about candidate quality going after a candidates looks. Lots of cases of the younger more photogenic candidate losing. "Don't hate me because I'm beautiful" is not a good look in modern society.

Lamb vs Fetterman is a recent example. Also literally any candidate who ran against and lost to our our ancient politicians over the last half century.

JazElections's avatar

Deja Foxx and Kat Abughazaleh this cycle too, to name a few.

(To be fair though, Adelita Grijalva and Daniel Biss aren't ugly by any means)

MPC's avatar

That's why I asked. Obviously, most MI voters will vote the way they lean politically. But there will be a handful that will vote on looks on a superficial level.

I hope voters put AES in the U.S. Senate because they want CHANGE and a check on the orange clown. Not because he's handsome.

UpstateNYer's avatar

Really odd tangent you are on here. What's wrong with the way Stevens looks? Or even Mike Rogers for that matter?

Personally, AES isn't my particular cup of tea looks-wise but I wouldn't vote against him just bc his outfits only seem to consist of tight black v-necks t-shirts.

MPC's avatar

The tight polling between AES and Rogers worries me. AES is a regular progressive; he doesn't have the baggage and foot-in-mouth problems Hong has in WI.

Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

I genuinely hope the closeness of it checks his ego and cockiness. That's crucial.

JazElections's avatar

El-Sayed? Not sure I would describe him as those things

Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

He had an election day eve pool party with a bunch of influencers that made him look like some Beverly Hills playboy.

KKzoo's avatar

Hi JazElections, I voted for Mallory specifically because this *is* how I would describe him, although i use the word "arrogant". In various interviews he had what I consider an arrogant attitude, and also pivoted away from the question (very common, I know, but it infuriates me). Yep many politicians are arrogant but I don't need to support it. However, I will support him in the general.

I do suspect that lots of his campaign style is code switching to appeal to bros and while i'm not that demographic I can respect that. I admire his scholarly writing and deep concern for public health.

Also, re: the misleading/mistaken polls, here's analysis from Simon Rosenberg saying that the AES campaign put out several polls designed to give the impression AES was running away with the vote. I find that believable.

Simon R says: "I also want to note the El-Sayed campaign and their allies have deployed a tactic in this race that’s been used by Republicans in recent years, and not by us - flooding the zone with favorable polls to shape the narrative of the race. In the past month 5 of the 12 primary polls released in Michigan have come from the El-Sayed campaign or their ideological allies - almost half. In those polls he leads by an average of 15 points. In June they released three additional general election polls. So if I counted correctly El-Sayed’s world released 8 of the 18 polls we’ve seen in Michigan these past two months - 44%, again almost half. This was a major effort to shape the understanding of the race. I’m not sure there has been anything like this on our side of the game in recent years."

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hopium-am-michigan-senate-still-too

JazElections's avatar

Good on you for forming an impression of him yourself rather than listening to pundits and the like. However, I would tread carefully listening to Rosenberg as he does have a bias towards more moderate candidates in Democratic primaries. Which is fine, of course, but he is coming from a certain perspective that may be different than others.

KKzoo's avatar

Totally agree about hopium chronicles' perspective. For instance, there was actually a contested primary in MI 4 where I am (progressive young guy Diop Harris running against Hopium supported Sean McCann, which Simon ignored.) As I watched returns last night i thought, OK, Simon will be mistaken here, but I think as it turned out, he was dead on re: the polls.

But I learn alot there, as I learn alot here without agreeing with everything ;) And perhaps that's part of why i have paid for a subscription here and not Hopium Chronicles.

JazElections's avatar

Every politician on the national stage will have those problems to a degree. But I'd give him a chance.

James's avatar

CNN reported the following day that GOP leaders in the House were urging Edwards to pull his name from the ballot so North Carolina Republicans could choose a new nominee. The story said that Republicans were “still sorting out the procedural questions of replacing him on the ballot.”

Yeah I was wondering about this one yesterday when the censure recommendation surfaced. The candidate filing period in NC ended in December -- of 2025. And the primaries have long since passed, so my best guess is that the NCGOP will hold some kind of convention to choose a new candidate. But this late in the game, how good can their voting really be? But hey, the NCGA broke the rules to get RFK Jr off the ballot after the deadline in 2024, so I'm sure they'll find a way -- or invent one -- legal or otherwise.

MPC's avatar

The state Supreme Court ALLOWED the NCGA to remove RFK Jr.'s name off the 2024 ballot AFTER the timeline had passed.

James's avatar

Yeah, I forgot that part. And then the NCGA returned the favor by trying to change the rules of the SC election after the votes were counted and they lost. Apparently that was a bridge too far, but they’ve had 2 years to figure out how to get around that, and they’ll use it.

MPC's avatar
Aug 5Edited

Such a momentous night last night. MO and KS Republicans' constitutional amendments FAILED, plus the pervy Chuck Edwards ended his re-election bid.

JazElections's avatar

Those victories will likely be glossed over by the media due to the marquee nail-biter race in Michigan, but deserve to have as much publicity.

Jay's avatar

I’m honestly very surprised that Amendment 5 did so bad in Missouri. I thought voters would see “eliminate income tax” and vote yes immediately. Missouri voters are a bit more discerning than I expected.

MPC's avatar

It gives me hope that they will vote NO on Amendment 3 in November, which repeals the abortion rights amendment under the ballot candy guise of "prevent trans kid surgeries".

AnthonySF's avatar

I don’t think Republican voters are as clued in to GOP processes in the legislature as politicos are. Not inconceivable they thought “we’ll never get our pet issues passed through a St Louis district!” without realizing the lege would just get it done in Jeff City, for them.

ArcticStones's avatar

I thought Chuck Edwards merely dropped his reelection bid. Did he actually resign?? I don’t think so.

MPC's avatar

He dropped his re-election bid. You were right.

Oggoldy's avatar

The amendment wins were fantastic.

Postcards From Home's avatar

One correction: The runoff (if needed) for the Republican Senate special election in South Carolina will be August 25.

Jeff Singer's avatar

Thank you, I've fixed.

Paleo's avatar

El-Sayed’s lead is now less than a point. The polling failed on this one.

Marcus Graly's avatar

I wonder why it was so far off? Enthusiasm gap perhaps? Pollsters use a pretty tight screen for primaries so maybe Stevens' supporters were disproportionally getting filtered out.

JazElections's avatar

Perhaps. The money probably helped Stevens too.

Paleo's avatar

Probably the latter. Undersampling Detroit perhaps. Primaries are notoriously hard to nail but Emerson had been doing a good job for a while.

My Ramblings's avatar

Primary polling in Michigan seems to just be shit. Similar story in the 2016 primaries; Bernie was leading by a large amount, won by a point

Kevin H.'s avatar

Our partisan pollsters can be just as bad as the republican versions.

Oggoldy's avatar

Isn't nearly everyone here "partisan"?

ClimateHawk's avatar

A lot of the polls were from AES friendly groups.

And as electability was his biggest issue, I get that strategy.

And primary polling is tougher than GE polling. Expecially in open primaries.

Kevin H.'s avatar

I actually don't remember those pollsters showing a 15 point El-Sayad lead releasing GE numbers, maybe i missed them.

Paleo's avatar

Mitchell and Quantus did. One had it tied, the other with a one point AES lead.

Paleo's avatar

McKinney up 4 with 73% in in MI 13.

axlee's avatar

This one is done, ig

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

MI-Sen - At this rate, Stevens could overtake AES, although it's not a certainty:

https://bsky.app/profile/votehub.com/post/3msdk4ay2re2y

There are about 40k votes left to count in Wayne, AES's statewide lead is now a little under 15k votes. Allegan County appears to be the only other area of Michigan with some outstanding vote, albeit probably not more than a few hundred votes left to count.

Stevens needs roughly 66% of the remaining vote in order to win, if my math is correct.

axlee's avatar

40k remaining might be a way overestimate tho.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

I'll also note that I saw somewhere that Stevens won the pre-processed mail-ins by around an 80-20 margin; this batch of mail-ins was less favorable to Stevens than that.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/aug/05/bill-teeter-wins-unopposed-contest-for-house/

Republican Bill Teeter won an election for the Arkansas state House last night uncontested, but still managed to get 41 votes.

Tigercourse's avatar

Primary polling is very tough, but last night's big underperformance by El-Sayed isn't a good sign for November.

ClimateHawk's avatar

I don't think it portends much for Nov at all.

Almost 1.5 mil to 1 mil ballot edge for Dems. Even with the much more high profile race, I will take that.

Tigercourse's avatar

Okay, but the polls just now need to be wrong in the opposite direction from what they just were for him to actually win the general election.

ClimateHawk's avatar

No they don't. D v D has nothing to do with D v R.

My Ramblings's avatar

Also have to consider how well Benson might perform against James

James has run pretty close statewide before, but this is his first time doing it as an actual politician and not just a concept. He has a history and votes to attack now, and polling so far hasn't shown him to be very strong. Split ticket voting *is* still possible (thank you Wisconsin 2022) but the race would have to be relatively close for Benson and Rogers to win together, and I don't really know if the governor's election will be that close. I can't really see Benson performing any worse than Whitmer did in 2018, at minimum.

My Ramblings's avatar

If this underperformance isn't a good sign for November, what does that mean for Stevens' chances in November? :P

Jokes aside, it's definitely not ideal but primaries in Michigan, and especially Democratic ones, seem to have a consistent polling issue. Michigan's Democratic primary in 2018 had far less pronounced issues but you look at the polling in the lead-up to primary day and most of them had Shri Thanedar in second place over El-Sayed, when the former ended up with a distant third.

Looking ahead at the general election I'd prefer to look at the 2022 governor's race where polling appeared to show a close race between Whitmer and Dixon. Whitmer ended up romping to a double digit victory and overperformed polling by a large margin. Obviously the scenarios aren't 1-to-1 - Senate races are pretty different from governor's races, El-Sayed isn't an incumbent and he's not an inoffensive moderate/leftish liberal, and Rogers is a much stronger candidate than Dixon was. But even still, I'd believe that polling for the general election is underestimating El-Sayed's support, rather than the other way around.

Joseph's avatar

the man was facing a 11-1 spending disadvantage. would you have thought the same had Haley won by the same margin El-Sayed did?

Tigercourse's avatar

Why would I possibly think that it would be a bad sign for her to overperform her polling numbers? That's illogical. Having some concerns about the candidate who already polls worse in the general election undershooting by 10-15 points isn't illogical.

Joseph's avatar

So you think for a candidate to have an 11-1 spending advantage, the entire democratic establishment behind her and a fake endorsement from Obama, that it's a sign of electoral strength to barely beat a candidate who had none of those in the primary? All because of wrong polls? Ok.

Tigercourse's avatar

If you think I was a Steven's supporter, I wasn't. I simply believe that drastically underperforming polls when you are already trailing in polls isn't a good thing. I don't know what is controversial about that. Also, it's not like he was suddenly outspent in the last week and that would create a sudden chane in election resluts. He's been outspent the whole time. I don't really understand what is controversial about being slightly concerned that our currently underwater candidate polls better than his vote totals.

UpstateNYer's avatar

DDHQ has given the check to AES, he's up by about 16k votes or 1%, with >95% in.

https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-04/michigan-us-senate-democratic-primary

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

AP called it for El-Sayed.

Paleo's avatar

AP and NY Times call the race for El-Sayed.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

CNN projects that Abdul El-Sayed will win the Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic primary, setting up, to my knowledge, the first general election between two former CNN employees (El-Sayed (D) and Rogers (R)).

Paleo's avatar

AP/NY Times call MI 13 for McKinney.

My Ramblings's avatar

I feel like you could count the amount of people genuinely upset by that on one hand

Paleo's avatar

All from the crypto lobby

JazElections's avatar

I know there's at least a few regular posters here that will be

D S's avatar

I'm not sure I've seen a single person on here defend Thanedar, he's just weird.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Rashida Tlaib and Debbie Dingell won't have to deal with a ton of constituent service calls from MI-13 going forward.