Small correction on the polling section: Darline Graham spells her name with an I, not an E, apparently being taught to do so by her late brother Lindsey.
What I've read about Hong, she's not a member of DSA and doesn't identify with them, but supports a majority of the same policy positions. The difference in the distinction, I suppose, is in which ones she differs with them on. And to what degree.
I think her biggest problem is her past support for abolishing the police. I remember how much ‘defund the police’ cost Dems a few House seats in 2020 so we know how salient it is with voters.
I wonder how much of that was active proximity to the very widely publicized riots in 2020 or the crime spike in 2021-early 2022. Neither of those have much purchase in the national zeitgeist now
Still bad policy on the merits and as an electoral effort, but I wonder how different that lands now vs six years ago when it was very clearly utter deadweight
She’s also made it clear in the here and now that she doesn’t support that policy anymore. Doesn’t mean it won’t hurt her or be used as a cudgel but not actively supporting it might soften the blow ever so slightly
Really it’ll all come down to whether or not she can keep voters focused on her economic populism, especially in regards to her anti-data center policy. At a time where crime is falling to record lows, and right off the heels of a police shooting in Madison, whinging endlessly about a position Hong isn’t actively campaigning on might not be as salient as one would think (in that RMG push poll linked in the article, only 3% of voters said crime was their top/primary issue - but it could definitely be that low simply because the poll seemed to be hyper focused on economic/tax issues and thus tried to direct respondents towards that).
But I’m also less confident about Hong in a swing state as I am with a candidate in the likes of AES. Frankly if it weren’t for her past positions on policing it’d be over before the cows sing. I say that as someone with a less favorable view of policing in the US - being critical of the police as an institution rather than just the bad apples is unpopular and is probably one of the few wedge issues that could help a Republican win in this environment. I think police reform is very necessary but progressives have got to be extremely careful with their messaging there. And as someone who *used to* share the policy of “abolishing the police”… do NOT, under any circumstances, run for office with that as a policy plank. Better to have that be an unfortunate byproduct of getting into politics as a teenager in early 2020 than something officially on your record.
I do think the circumstances are different, though. Walker was an incumbent and even unpopular incumbents tend to get a bit of a boost unless their numbers are devastatingly shit. 2018 was also, as of what we know now, less blue than what 2026 is shaping up to be. So she’s definitely polling weaker than she should be, but we’re not currently staring down the barrel of a horrific loss, not even close. The race was always going to be close given how weak the field was, but while Hong appears to be the weakest of the bunch as of yet, the fact she was able to actually gain traction in the primary without imploding like almost every other opponent makes me feel a bit more confident about her. Winning the primary doesn’t always make you the strongest candidate or best suited for the general election, but it’s also not meaningless.
I don’t know if it was during the debate but I think she claimed something to the effect of not being a member of the *National* DSA or endorsed by them, making an attempt to distance herself from them after the leader of the NDSA went on Fox News and said the DSA, as an organization, supports a whole slew of pretty unpopular policies, atleast for swing state voters
I decided to look up what quote might be causing the confusion:
'“I do not support the full platform of the national DSA, and I am not endorsed by DSA national. What democratic socialism is is a form of government that puts working-class people first,” she said, before she reiterated her support for stronger public education funding, taxing the rich and investing in universal childcare and affordable housing.'
Other than that I don't think she's claimed to not be a member of the DSA
She's a member of the Madison DSA, which is controlled by the DSA Right (reformist socialists) rather than the national DSA, where hardline socialists currently hold a majority.
DSA chapters in New York, Los Angeles, Madison, Maine, and Detroit are reformist, while chapters in smaller places, such as Rhode Island, are controlled by hardliners, ultras, or the DSA Left.
The reformists currently do not support defunding the police or the Department of Defense, and they support running as Democrats and working within the Democratic Party.
Anxiously waiting for that next Sienna poll in reference to the NY Governor race - tired of seeing these R aligned polls all over the media. Interestingly enough, back in 2022 when Zeldin was running there were signs for him ALL OVER the island here, and now I have yet to see even one for Blakeman, perhaps it’s too early?
Last night I wondered, if the Fox Texas poll were accurate, which candidates are positioned to ride an in-state wave. Bobby Pulido and Johnny Garcia have outraised the De la Cruz siblings, and it seems they are taking their races seriously. I wonder about Katy Padilla Stout in TX-23, since I don’t think she should be getting outraised by a Neo-Nazi. Hopefully our AG and LG candidates get more attention too with the outsized power those offices have in the state.
I think if Talarico wins and takes a majority by more than a point, every newly gerrymandered district + district 23 goes for the Dems. All of these districts had a higher count of Democratic voters than Republican voters in their primaries, so there’s clearly momentum there
I’ll have to read more about Stout and see if there’s anything her campaign is doing poorly, but I also think you could chalk it up to the race being of increased attention after everything that happened with Gonzalez and the… way his replacement is, and thus the GOP investing heavily in it because of the weakness of their candidate, and how bad it would look if this heavy Republican district starts to look competitive.
Not to worry; Politico—promptly repackaged and amplified by Politicalwire—might arrive to assure us breathlessly that women have been known to wield similar influence.
I find it funny that Fox buried the lede on Abbott only tracking a point ahead of Hinojosa in their article mentioning Talarico polling ahead of Paxton.
Apparently, she's been running a good campaign focused on affordability and data centers but her fundraising is nowhere near Abbott or Talarico. She's being advised by Morris Katz.
FWIW, this breakdown among Black voters lines up much more closely with what I've been hearing from community organizers in Detroit.
Stevens isn't Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, both of whom spent years building deep relationships with Black elected officials and community leaders. At the same time, Abdul El-Sayed isn't Bernie Sanders. He's spent years leading the health departments in Detroit and Wayne County, showing up consistently and building trust with Black communities and local leaders.
Most younger Black voters also know that Obama hasn't endorsed Stevens and that AIPAC is funding those "If Obama trusts Haley Stevens, so should Michigan and you" ads implying that.
El-Sayed also appears much more comfortable campaigning in Black churches than Bernie ever did. Black voters are not simply ideologically "moderate" —they tend to place a high value on trust, familiarity, and long-term relationships, and those factors often matter more than ideology alone.
Small correction on the polling section: Darline Graham spells her name with an I, not an E, apparently being taught to do so by her late brother Lindsey.
That is so odd, lol. Her birth name is Darlene but she goes by a misspelling because of her brother?
Yep. Immediately dropped her husband's name Nordone as soon as she came into the national spotlight too.
Maybe I just have a bleeding heart but I honestly think it’s kind of sweet, given that Lindsay basically raised her
She and her brother were and are still reprehensible humans, though. But if you dig through trash you’re bound to find something kind of neat
It *is* very sweet. It's just also odd lol.
What I've read about Hong, she's not a member of DSA and doesn't identify with them, but supports a majority of the same policy positions. The difference in the distinction, I suppose, is in which ones she differs with them on. And to what degree.
I think her biggest problem is her past support for abolishing the police. I remember how much ‘defund the police’ cost Dems a few House seats in 2020 so we know how salient it is with voters.
I wonder how much of that was active proximity to the very widely publicized riots in 2020 or the crime spike in 2021-early 2022. Neither of those have much purchase in the national zeitgeist now
Still bad policy on the merits and as an electoral effort, but I wonder how different that lands now vs six years ago when it was very clearly utter deadweight
She’s also made it clear in the here and now that she doesn’t support that policy anymore. Doesn’t mean it won’t hurt her or be used as a cudgel but not actively supporting it might soften the blow ever so slightly
Really it’ll all come down to whether or not she can keep voters focused on her economic populism, especially in regards to her anti-data center policy. At a time where crime is falling to record lows, and right off the heels of a police shooting in Madison, whinging endlessly about a position Hong isn’t actively campaigning on might not be as salient as one would think (in that RMG push poll linked in the article, only 3% of voters said crime was their top/primary issue - but it could definitely be that low simply because the poll seemed to be hyper focused on economic/tax issues and thus tried to direct respondents towards that).
But I’m also less confident about Hong in a swing state as I am with a candidate in the likes of AES. Frankly if it weren’t for her past positions on policing it’d be over before the cows sing. I say that as someone with a less favorable view of policing in the US - being critical of the police as an institution rather than just the bad apples is unpopular and is probably one of the few wedge issues that could help a Republican win in this environment. I think police reform is very necessary but progressives have got to be extremely careful with their messaging there. And as someone who *used to* share the policy of “abolishing the police”… do NOT, under any circumstances, run for office with that as a policy plank. Better to have that be an unfortunate byproduct of getting into politics as a teenager in early 2020 than something officially on your record.
Good post, but funny idea about cows singing. MOOOOO! :-)
That is from 5 years ago, though. And she has already disavowed it.
I mean, the GOP will try to make some hay there no doubt. But I question how salient that will be with most voters.
If she is not really DSA in actuality, that is a boon. And I see a poll with her up 1 on Tiffany. Hardly unwinnable. Though I get the skepticism.
Hell, Evers had an election about that close when he ousted Walker in 2018. And he wasn't even a progressive.
I do think the circumstances are different, though. Walker was an incumbent and even unpopular incumbents tend to get a bit of a boost unless their numbers are devastatingly shit. 2018 was also, as of what we know now, less blue than what 2026 is shaping up to be. So she’s definitely polling weaker than she should be, but we’re not currently staring down the barrel of a horrific loss, not even close. The race was always going to be close given how weak the field was, but while Hong appears to be the weakest of the bunch as of yet, the fact she was able to actually gain traction in the primary without imploding like almost every other opponent makes me feel a bit more confident about her. Winning the primary doesn’t always make you the strongest candidate or best suited for the general election, but it’s also not meaningless.
It really can be meaningless for a candidate's general election prospects, and we all know that.
Police and prisons.
Hmm, her wiki page still states she IS a member of DSA. I think in the debate, she claimed not to be an ACTIVE member.
I don’t know if it was during the debate but I think she claimed something to the effect of not being a member of the *National* DSA or endorsed by them, making an attempt to distance herself from them after the leader of the NDSA went on Fox News and said the DSA, as an organization, supports a whole slew of pretty unpopular policies, atleast for swing state voters
They said the Wisconsin DSA supports positions the national DSA opposes?
I decided to look up what quote might be causing the confusion:
'“I do not support the full platform of the national DSA, and I am not endorsed by DSA national. What democratic socialism is is a form of government that puts working-class people first,” she said, before she reiterated her support for stronger public education funding, taxing the rich and investing in universal childcare and affordable housing.'
Other than that I don't think she's claimed to not be a member of the DSA
She's a member of the Madison DSA, which is controlled by the DSA Right (reformist socialists) rather than the national DSA, where hardline socialists currently hold a majority.
DSA chapters in New York, Los Angeles, Madison, Maine, and Detroit are reformist, while chapters in smaller places, such as Rhode Island, are controlled by hardliners, ultras, or the DSA Left.
The reformists currently do not support defunding the police or the Department of Defense, and they support running as Democrats and working within the Democratic Party.
The Wisconsin governor's race is like a bad soap opera. I'd like a word with the scriptwriters.
This isn’t our fault, even we’re tired of all the twists and turns 😝
Anxiously waiting for that next Sienna poll in reference to the NY Governor race - tired of seeing these R aligned polls all over the media. Interestingly enough, back in 2022 when Zeldin was running there were signs for him ALL OVER the island here, and now I have yet to see even one for Blakeman, perhaps it’s too early?
Last night I wondered, if the Fox Texas poll were accurate, which candidates are positioned to ride an in-state wave. Bobby Pulido and Johnny Garcia have outraised the De la Cruz siblings, and it seems they are taking their races seriously. I wonder about Katy Padilla Stout in TX-23, since I don’t think she should be getting outraised by a Neo-Nazi. Hopefully our AG and LG candidates get more attention too with the outsized power those offices have in the state.
I think if Talarico wins and takes a majority by more than a point, every newly gerrymandered district + district 23 goes for the Dems. All of these districts had a higher count of Democratic voters than Republican voters in their primaries, so there’s clearly momentum there
I’ll have to read more about Stout and see if there’s anything her campaign is doing poorly, but I also think you could chalk it up to the race being of increased attention after everything that happened with Gonzalez and the… way his replacement is, and thus the GOP investing heavily in it because of the weakness of their candidate, and how bad it would look if this heavy Republican district starts to look competitive.
I think Talarico himself would win all those districts. It’s a matter of how far behind the House candidates run after him.
can men stop doing this?
No. We have been for all of human history.
Not to worry; Politico—promptly repackaged and amplified by Politicalwire—might arrive to assure us breathlessly that women have been known to wield similar influence.
I find it funny that Fox buried the lede on Abbott only tracking a point ahead of Hinojosa in their article mentioning Talarico polling ahead of Paxton.
Apparently, she's been running a good campaign focused on affordability and data centers but her fundraising is nowhere near Abbott or Talarico. She's being advised by Morris Katz.
I'm hoping there won't be much ticket splitting in TX come November. Be nice to sweep all those awful Republicans out on the statewide level.
Crosstabs of 2 new polls:
MI Senate crosstabs by Mitchell Research
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 52%
🟪 Haley Stevens: 38%
🟨 McMorrow: 4%
——
Age
🔵 18-29: El-Sayed 68-19
🔵 30-44: El-Sayed 62-25
🔵 45-64: El-Sayed 48-39
🟣 65+: Stevens 50-43
—
Ideology
🔵 Progressive Socialists: El-Sayed 80-13
🔵 Progressives: El-Sayed 59-34
🟣 Regular Dems: Stevens 53-35
—
Race/Ethnicity
🔵 White: El-Sayed 51-38
🔵 Black: El-Sayed 47-42
7/28-29 | 406 LV
https://mitchellresearch.net/s/MITCHELL-MI-DEM-Primary-Poll-Press-Release-330PM-7-30-26.pdf
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2083184080544235694
Michigan Senate Dem Primary Crosstabs by @SocalStrategies
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 56%
🟪 Haley Stevens: 39%
——
Age
🔵 18-29: El-Sayed +30
🔵 30-44: El-Sayed +46
🔵 45-64: El-Sayed +14
🟣 65+: Stevens +17
—
Race/Ethnicity
🔵 White: El-Sayed +20
🟣 Black: Stevens +6
🔵 Hispanic: El-Sayed +49
—
Gender
🔵 Male: El-Sayed +26
🔵 Female: El-Sayed +11
—
Education
🔵 No College: El-Sayed +17
🔵 College grad: El-Sayed +18
700 LV | ±3.7%
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2083017887707488510
FWIW, this breakdown among Black voters lines up much more closely with what I've been hearing from community organizers in Detroit.
Stevens isn't Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, both of whom spent years building deep relationships with Black elected officials and community leaders. At the same time, Abdul El-Sayed isn't Bernie Sanders. He's spent years leading the health departments in Detroit and Wayne County, showing up consistently and building trust with Black communities and local leaders.
Most younger Black voters also know that Obama hasn't endorsed Stevens and that AIPAC is funding those "If Obama trusts Haley Stevens, so should Michigan and you" ads implying that.
El-Sayed also appears much more comfortable campaigning in Black churches than Bernie ever did. Black voters are not simply ideologically "moderate" —they tend to place a high value on trust, familiarity, and long-term relationships, and those factors often matter more than ideology alone.
This may be the part where we stop worrying about AES' ability, should he dispatch Stevens, to defeat the gormless Mike Rogers.
At least until the next poll here in about 8-12 hours.
Hong went on FOX News today
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2083190500312408532?s=46&t=ur470cc8I-pVBsEowCJVTg