VA-05: Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) running, presumably with the expectation the seat gets redrawn to be much bluer. Perriello represented the district for a term in the late 2000s and ran a competitive primary against Ralph Northam for governor in 2017.
Interesting, since in a 10-1 map or even a 9-2 map, Roanoke and Charlottesville are likely to be in the same district. So we could see a Rasoul/Perriello primary.
And I feel obligated to post the 10-1 map that I've drawn, where the least Democratic of the 10 blue districts is Harris+7, Jones+8, and Spanberger+17.
I suspect a primary like that would come down to geography more than ideology, since, as you say, there isn't a sharp ideological difference between them.
Perriello has voted for restrictions on abortion such as the prohibition on insurance coverage for most abortions under the ACA. Is Rasoul down-the-line pro choice?
My definition of Perriello being progressive was based on him being the de facto left candidate in 2017 when he ran for Governor. He was in a swing seat in 2009, I can’t imagine he had much choice over his votes. (Correct me if I’m wrong, but there were also more anti abortion Dems then too.)
Rasoul does look to be more progressive from just a quick glance at his platform on his campaign site. We’ll see I guess.
Despite his initial vote for the 2009 Stupak-Pitts Amendment, Perriello's gone on record to say that it was "the worst vote of his career." Indeed he later went on to vote for the final senate version of the ACA, which excluded the Stupak-Pitts Amendment. You can even argue that he campaigned to the left of Northam in 2017 despite NARAL criticism of his 2009 initial vote prohibiting federal funding for abortion coverage in the ACA. Indeed despite this and NARAL's endorsement of Northam, Perriello refused any campaign contributions from Dominion Energy, a major energy utility company in Virginia and the biggest donor in the state. I definitely think that while he may not be progressive or liberal as some may like, Tom has more than definitely shifted to the left and embraced the progressive brand.
I've been wondering where Tom Perriello's been all these years after his failed gubernatorial run in 2017. He always struck me as quite the progressive, if not at least a staunch populist. Good to see him back. At 51, he's quite young.
I hope, should Crockett win the primary, pull an Ossoff/Warnock 2021 upset in the general (but it's going to be a BIG uphill battle). And whomever loses the primary needs to wholeheartedly endorse the winner and rally for them.
Schumer spent millions and millions for Hegar from his Senate Majority PAC in the primary and she still barely squeaked through. Talarico isn't as moderate though, at least in rhetoric.
and 2026 is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10 points bluer than 2020.
But my point is not that Jasmine is like Warnock, it's that people shouldn't be so immediately dismissive of things, and certain about outcomes of elections so far away
Blue Tea Party comparisons continue, re: Crockett. I would like to think our primary voters are more tactical than the GOP’s have been for the past decade, but Texas will be an important early test.
I'm willing to bet 99% of his overperformance was because of Ted Cruz and not because of Collin Allred. Allred's overperformances in the House were minimal at best. Not that I think Talarico would do phenomenally better than Crockett would, but at least he'd be able to compete for persuadable Republican voters if Paxton has more explosive scandals come out.
Honestly wouldn't be the worst outcome unfortunately. Habba and Halligan are both opportunists that are hopping onto the GOP wagon without any real conservative ideological roots. They wear the conservative cape now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they moderated or became outright liberal once Trump is gone. Needless to say, they shouldn't be anywhere near the SCOTUS, but Trump has so many potentially problematic choices that these two incompetent ones are not the worst
In theory Trump could do a recess appointment, but true recesses are so rare these days (precisely to prevent such appointments). But a recess appointment for SCOTUS would be a huge deal if it happened (or at least it would have been in the pre-Trump days).
Odds are high that Alito and/or Clarence keel over after a Democratic president and Democratic majority Senate is sworn in in 2029. They'd lose their majority right off the bat -- and two liberal justices to join KBJ, Kagan and Sotomayor on the court.
I am curious whether if control of SCOTUS is flipped by court expansion or conservative justices dying or retiring -- whether they would promptly revisit controversial decisions made by the court (a la what the SCONC did when Republicans took control in 2023) or take on cases that reverse that precedent.
It would have to be perfect timing and have to happen in 2029 or 2030. Given the 2030, senate map, I would not like the odds of Dems keeping control with a Dem in the White House given that Dems pretty much only have PA left as a target and will have to defend WI/NV/MI/AZ, which will be tough to hold all of in a Presidem midterm. If Dems get a trifecta in 2028, they need to use it like it’s their last this time.
I really dislike that any hope of a liberal majority on the court in a generation comes down to Alito and Thomas being arrogant but it is what it is and weird things can happen I guess.
I think there's a good argument the burger court wasn't comprised of a conservative majority either, as nixon nominated blackmun who was very much a liberal. Dam broke when marshall retired and was replaced by thomas. That's when you start getting decisions like planned parenthood v bob casey sr, etc
The Burger Court was mixed. Some of their decisions were even more liberal than the Warren Court's, but they made some terrible decisions on Executive power, notably including Laird v Tatum, and dialed back Warren Court protections from illegal searches, seizures and questioning of alleged suspects.
I think Dems should just uniformly be supportive of packing the court unless Republicans agree to support a term limits amendment to the Constitution. They broke the rules to get to 6-3, they don't get to benefit for 100 years. They played their strongest hard, we need to play ours and get both sides to back off of the judicial wars.
Don't expect a constitutional amendment on this stuff to ever happen -- there's no way to guarantee dozens of GOP state legislatures follow along (look how hard it has been for them to redistrict in a number of states, despite the advantages).
We have to hope that Dems have the guts to remove the filibuster and do things that only require legislative majorities, are generally viewed as legal, and can be explained/sold to the public easily:
- Expand the court
- Add D.C. and Puerto Rico as states
- Expand the House
- Limit redistricting to once a decade
- Establish whatever fair map-drawing might be allowed under John Roberts' Raucho decision
Things that should not be suggested/attempted because they will never fly with Congress, the Courts, the public, or some combination thereof:
- Proportional representation
- Ranked-choice voting
- National map-drawing commission
- Adding Guam and other tiny territories as states
Disagree about territories. I've repeatedly stated that the U.S. Virgin Islands should be admitted as a state, and that's no worse than the Republicans admitting the Dakota Territory as 2 states in the 19th century.
Ok.. it's just not 1889 anymore (I agree that having two Dakotas is ridiculous, but we are where we are). Adding an island of 87k people as a state would never fly with the public or Congress.
I think expanding the court is actually a bad idea, I'd really rather it not happen except as a bargaining chip to hold over the state legislatures to put term limits in place. But if we're just going to live in a world where Republicans stole a seat and their appointees time their retirements to ensure their majority is never in doubt, I'm not sure what alternative we really have.
Why is it a bad idea? There are 13 circuits, so 13 justices. And it doesn't make each individual vacancy so cataclysmic. You can phase them in over multiple presidencies so that they don't all go to the same person initially.
Also, if I'm not mistaken, term limits would require a constitutional amedment (which would never happen), and this would only require a simple Senate majority.
This is why the Senate is so critical in 2026. Although I suspect that if Democrats did flip it in the midterms, we'd see a concerted effort to get Alito and Thomas to retire and ram through replacements in the lame duck.
This is actually good, because frankly I think the Kavanaugh confirmation battle in 2018 galvanized a lot of conservatives and made their turnout in the 2018 elections higher than it would've been otherwise, which saved a whole bunch of seats for them. Without a SCOTUS confirmation battle just before the election, Democrats would've done even better than we actually did.
I saw him speak recently and he's one of the most thoughtful and intelligent politicians I've ever interacted with. He's to my left on some stuff but I think he'd be a phenomenal congressperson, and I hope he's able to translate a House seat into something bigger down the road since he's only in his 50s.
Brad Lander was the guy I wanted as the next Mayor of New York! If the Democratic establishment had had the moral spine to forcefully reject the candidacies of Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams, and instead united behind Lander, then he may well have had a shot.
That said, I would love to see Lander take a seat in Congress!
PPIC poll of CA Gov primary: Porter 21; Beccera 14; Hlton 14; Bianco 11. (1,086 LVs) Unfortunately, the poll was in the field 11/13–11/19 so it is already dated as it did not include more recently announced candidates.
A generic ballot question gave Dems a huge advantage: 63%-35%.
Without Swalwell it's meaningless, i can see him consolidating the Northern California vote which would be handy against a bunch of people from So Cal.
Bonta yes but Mahan I am not too sure. Bonta and his wife Mia Bonta live in Alameda and Bonta himself served in the City Attorney’s office before. He by contrast has a higher profile.
Mahan is mainly known for being Mayor of San Jose but as a city, there isn’t a whole lot it has done to improve itself in the last 20+ years as far as it’s image is concerned. I have talked to people who live in SJ and nearby in Milpitas and while it has seen progressive change (as well as lots of diversity) and SJ is not the city it used to be back during the 90’s.
The center of tech activity is actually not in SJ but elsewhere in Menlo Park, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Francisco, Santa Clara, etc. Mahan has also only been Mayor of SJ since 2023 so jumping in the gubernatorial race would be bad optics as it might question SJ residents as to why they would need to cut Mahan’s term as Mayor and vote for someone else.
Well, that’s a complicated problem out of Mahan’s control as BART is supposed to be built through Downtown San Jose and Santa Clara in the coming years, where the best incentives for housing development (high rise or not).
There is currently a Berryessa/North San Jose BART station but it’s located in the suburbs, not exactly within walking distance to Downtown. I do believe there have been housing developments in the city but I am not aware enough of specifics. Berkeley and San Francisco I do have more awareness.
Housing development near mass transit, frankly, has been more prominent in Fremont near one of the BART stations and has exploded since before the COVID-19 pandemic. But Fremont is also a less complicated city to manage and safer.
I do believe Mahan has been a decent Mayor from what I have hear but again, he’s only finishing two years in office. I would say finishing his first term would be ideal.
The last minute Texas shuffle, especially with TX-30, is extremely undesirable. But now Tarrant County Judge is on my radar to donate to at some point next year.
Is it true that trump is refusing to release latest inflation data? If so, didn't he once say "you don't take the 5th unless you have something to hide".
Crockett is the most able democrat to use the sound bite. This ability can make her a formidable candidate in getting her message out and countering the republican message.
In the 2022 Gubernatorial Race, Beto O’Rourke had tried to do this very thing Crockett has done but with any sound bytes he got, namely with his point of view on gun rights, it did not help him win. He lost by nearly 11% points.
The reality is that Crockett needs to do more than just sound bites and counter messaging. She needs to OWN the Hispanic vote. Right now with her views on Hispanic Trump voters, she’s already starting to potentially squander her opportunity to get more support.
If Crockett were running for the Senate in California, she would be able to have more flexibility with what you are describing. But this is TX and Democrats have not won statewide races and even the Senate races in decades.
God I wish. I saw a No Labels ad online today thanking Lawler for a health care vote. This is the same Rep who voted for the SNAP cuts. Fuck him and fuck No Labels.
Lawler is also pro-ICE. How is he supposed to think he’s going to survive re-election next year in a Lean Blue district with his rhetoric the way it is?
He could end up being a problem for Gillen & Suozi if he’s the nominee. Zeldin being from LI and performing so strongly there in 2022 led to a wipeout for LI Dems that year.
Yep. Maybe, just maybe, the governor’s seat and special Senate race isn’t an automatic lock for Republicans next year. They’ll have to actually work for it & not take it for granted.
The point shift, even though it’s a municipal race, has the same percentage shift as most of the other races this year on average. If this means a D+8-10 point shift (and some FL Rs stay home) next year, the governor’s seat will flip. And they lose that legislative supermajority they’ve had for several cycles.
It's best not to expect upsets but to work hard to try to make them possible and be really happy if they happen. We definitely shouldn't write Florida off because of past performance.
if things were as they should be they wouldn't hold elections. this represents a major shift in the way voters are looking at the 2 parties...and, all across this freaking country, they finally seem to be seeing the republicans for what they are!!
WOW! There's definitely a nationwide shift among Hispanic voters back to Democrats since last year.
Also, this was an election that, IIRC, the Miami city council unsuccessfully tried to postpone for a year in reaction to Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic primary for mayor in NYC.
To be sure, wasn't Manny Diaz kinda sorta a Dem Mayor in the 2000s? He wasn't registered as one when he was Mayor but he became one afterwards and endorsed Obama in 2008.
CO: Senator and governor candidate Michael Bennet supports redrawing the maps in Colorado. There seems to be growing momentum for this from the establishment but no official party-sponsored constitutional amendment.
There is currently grassroots proposal for an amendment that would give the governor 'emergency powers' to redraw. IMO I think that groups proposal has a poor chance of passing given how its currently constructed, since people might be reluctant to give a sole executive emergency powers. I hope CO Dems put forth their own amendment soon and get this ball rolling in time for 2026.
Orlando, FL City Council - In a bit of a surprise, moderate candidate Roger Chapin defeated progressive candidate Mira Tanna (IIRC, both are known Democrats) by 200 votes in the Orlando City Council District 3 runoff. With District 1 having flipped from Republican to Democratic back in November, Orlando will have a 5-0 Democratic city council (Orlando municipal elections are technically nonpartisan), although there will be quite a bit of ideological variance on the council.
FL-SD-11: Republican Ralph Massullo holds the seat north of Tampa that Blaise Ingoglia left to become Chief Financial Officer, but the Democrats gained ground by 20 - Ingoglia won re-election 70-30 last year, while Massullo won 60-40.
Nearly everything from Oconee County (very Republican) is in; nearly all of the remaining vote is several hundred votes or so to be counted in Clarke County (extremely Democratic). Guest's lead is 345 votes.
VA-05: Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) running, presumably with the expectation the seat gets redrawn to be much bluer. Perriello represented the district for a term in the late 2000s and ran a competitive primary against Ralph Northam for governor in 2017.
https://x.com/greggiroux/status/1998370184483176693
Interesting, since in a 10-1 map or even a 9-2 map, Roanoke and Charlottesville are likely to be in the same district. So we could see a Rasoul/Perriello primary.
And I feel obligated to post the 10-1 map that I've drawn, where the least Democratic of the 10 blue districts is Harris+7, Jones+8, and Spanberger+17.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48f7d941-a16a-4e67-99d9-527c08d3bd6c
That's going to be interesting. Rasoul and Perriello are both progressives, for one.
I suspect a primary like that would come down to geography more than ideology, since, as you say, there isn't a sharp ideological difference between them.
What are Beth Macy's policies?
Perriello has voted for restrictions on abortion such as the prohibition on insurance coverage for most abortions under the ACA. Is Rasoul down-the-line pro choice?
My definition of Perriello being progressive was based on him being the de facto left candidate in 2017 when he ran for Governor. He was in a swing seat in 2009, I can’t imagine he had much choice over his votes. (Correct me if I’m wrong, but there were also more anti abortion Dems then too.)
Rasoul does look to be more progressive from just a quick glance at his platform on his campaign site. We’ll see I guess.
Despite his initial vote for the 2009 Stupak-Pitts Amendment, Perriello's gone on record to say that it was "the worst vote of his career." Indeed he later went on to vote for the final senate version of the ACA, which excluded the Stupak-Pitts Amendment. You can even argue that he campaigned to the left of Northam in 2017 despite NARAL criticism of his 2009 initial vote prohibiting federal funding for abortion coverage in the ACA. Indeed despite this and NARAL's endorsement of Northam, Perriello refused any campaign contributions from Dominion Energy, a major energy utility company in Virginia and the biggest donor in the state. I definitely think that while he may not be progressive or liberal as some may like, Tom has more than definitely shifted to the left and embraced the progressive brand.
I really appreciate when people share links in such clear and succinct fashion in comments!
That's a name I haven't heard in a long time....long time
Inspired by Steve Stockman, no doubt!
I hope not!
I've been wondering where Tom Perriello's been all these years after his failed gubernatorial run in 2017. He always struck me as quite the progressive, if not at least a staunch populist. Good to see him back. At 51, he's quite young.
I hope, should Crockett win the primary, pull an Ossoff/Warnock 2021 upset in the general (but it's going to be a BIG uphill battle). And whomever loses the primary needs to wholeheartedly endorse the winner and rally for them.
I can't see any possibility of Crockett winning a general election. I'd put the odds at 50:1 against that.
Does Talerico have a chance at least?
I believe so.
This is the same state party that nominated MJ Hegar, so I'd imagine so
Schumer spent millions and millions for Hegar from his Senate Majority PAC in the primary and she still barely squeaked through. Talarico isn't as moderate though, at least in rhetoric.
just gonna say that people said this about Warnock around this time in 2019
Warnock is far more moderate in both style and politics than Crockett is.
Warnock is a mainstream liberal who knows how to package his record in a very bipartisan and moderate way.
100% on this summary. Plus Georgia is bluer than Texas.
and 2026 is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10 points bluer than 2020.
But my point is not that Jasmine is like Warnock, it's that people shouldn't be so immediately dismissive of things, and certain about outcomes of elections so far away
Blue Tea Party comparisons continue, re: Crockett. I would like to think our primary voters are more tactical than the GOP’s have been for the past decade, but Texas will be an important early test.
My worry here is that the clear overperformer, Allred, is now out.
I'm willing to bet 99% of his overperformance was because of Ted Cruz and not because of Collin Allred. Allred's overperformances in the House were minimal at best. Not that I think Talarico would do phenomenally better than Crockett would, but at least he'd be able to compete for persuadable Republican voters if Paxton has more explosive scandals come out.
Plus because of Latino downballot ticket lag favoring Democrats.
Talarico was out-polling and out-raising him
"Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024
In an interview with Politico on Monday, Trump tells Dasha Burns he hopes Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas don’t retire."
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1998401568295579995
Trump singlehandedly keeps saving liberalism.
If they do retire, he will just appoint Alina Habba and Lindsey Halligan to replace them.
Honestly wouldn't be the worst outcome unfortunately. Habba and Halligan are both opportunists that are hopping onto the GOP wagon without any real conservative ideological roots. They wear the conservative cape now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they moderated or became outright liberal once Trump is gone. Needless to say, they shouldn't be anywhere near the SCOTUS, but Trump has so many potentially problematic choices that these two incompetent ones are not the worst
When it comes to that, I hope that we have enough Senators to block any appointment - other than Adam Schiff - he might make to SCOTUS.
Bring back Harriet Miers
Ugh, we would have been a fuckton better off with Miers in that seat instead of Alito and I will die on that hill.
I doubt anyone will fight you on that notion...
I'd be very surprised if either turned liberal.
They'd maybe be somewhat persuadable on some issues. Maybe.
They have to be confirmed. There are no "interim" SCOTUS justices, they get nominated and confirmed or not.
In theory Trump could do a recess appointment, but true recesses are so rare these days (precisely to prevent such appointments). But a recess appointment for SCOTUS would be a huge deal if it happened (or at least it would have been in the pre-Trump days).
Odds are high that Alito and/or Clarence keel over after a Democratic president and Democratic majority Senate is sworn in in 2029. They'd lose their majority right off the bat -- and two liberal justices to join KBJ, Kagan and Sotomayor on the court.
I am curious whether if control of SCOTUS is flipped by court expansion or conservative justices dying or retiring -- whether they would promptly revisit controversial decisions made by the court (a la what the SCONC did when Republicans took control in 2023) or take on cases that reverse that precedent.
It would have to be perfect timing and have to happen in 2029 or 2030. Given the 2030, senate map, I would not like the odds of Dems keeping control with a Dem in the White House given that Dems pretty much only have PA left as a target and will have to defend WI/NV/MI/AZ, which will be tough to hold all of in a Presidem midterm. If Dems get a trifecta in 2028, they need to use it like it’s their last this time.
100% agree. That's why various candidates' position on the filibuster is so critical.
And admit DC and Puerto Rico as states very quickly.
And pass a bill requiring all states to set up independent redistricting commissions.
I'd prefer a national commission.
One redistricting commission for the entire country? That seems way too difficult.
That's absolutely essential!
I really dislike that any hope of a liberal majority on the court in a generation comes down to Alito and Thomas being arrogant but it is what it is and weird things can happen I guess.
A generation? When was the last time there was a liberal majority on the court?
Early Nixon administration when Earl Warren retired.
That's not a generation, that's a lifetime
2 generations. I hope most people live longer than 50-something years!
I think there's a good argument the burger court wasn't comprised of a conservative majority either, as nixon nominated blackmun who was very much a liberal. Dam broke when marshall retired and was replaced by thomas. That's when you start getting decisions like planned parenthood v bob casey sr, etc
The Burger Court was mixed. Some of their decisions were even more liberal than the Warren Court's, but they made some terrible decisions on Executive power, notably including Laird v Tatum, and dialed back Warren Court protections from illegal searches, seizures and questioning of alleged suspects.
We really shouldn't get our hopes up like this.... the court will remain at least 5-4 conservative for at least the next generation...
I think Dems should just uniformly be supportive of packing the court unless Republicans agree to support a term limits amendment to the Constitution. They broke the rules to get to 6-3, they don't get to benefit for 100 years. They played their strongest hard, we need to play ours and get both sides to back off of the judicial wars.
Don't expect a constitutional amendment on this stuff to ever happen -- there's no way to guarantee dozens of GOP state legislatures follow along (look how hard it has been for them to redistrict in a number of states, despite the advantages).
We have to hope that Dems have the guts to remove the filibuster and do things that only require legislative majorities, are generally viewed as legal, and can be explained/sold to the public easily:
- Expand the court
- Add D.C. and Puerto Rico as states
- Expand the House
- Limit redistricting to once a decade
- Establish whatever fair map-drawing might be allowed under John Roberts' Raucho decision
Things that should not be suggested/attempted because they will never fly with Congress, the Courts, the public, or some combination thereof:
- Proportional representation
- Ranked-choice voting
- National map-drawing commission
- Adding Guam and other tiny territories as states
- Age limits for anyone in federal office
Disagree about territories. I've repeatedly stated that the U.S. Virgin Islands should be admitted as a state, and that's no worse than the Republicans admitting the Dakota Territory as 2 states in the 19th century.
Ok.. it's just not 1889 anymore (I agree that having two Dakotas is ridiculous, but we are where we are). Adding an island of 87k people as a state would never fly with the public or Congress.
I think expanding the court is actually a bad idea, I'd really rather it not happen except as a bargaining chip to hold over the state legislatures to put term limits in place. But if we're just going to live in a world where Republicans stole a seat and their appointees time their retirements to ensure their majority is never in doubt, I'm not sure what alternative we really have.
Why is it a bad idea? There are 13 circuits, so 13 justices. And it doesn't make each individual vacancy so cataclysmic. You can phase them in over multiple presidencies so that they don't all go to the same person initially.
Also, if I'm not mistaken, term limits would require a constitutional amedment (which would never happen), and this would only require a simple Senate majority.
This is why the Senate is so critical in 2026. Although I suspect that if Democrats did flip it in the midterms, we'd see a concerted effort to get Alito and Thomas to retire and ram through replacements in the lame duck.
I'm not sure if either's massive egos will allow him to retire.
This is actually good, because frankly I think the Kavanaugh confirmation battle in 2018 galvanized a lot of conservatives and made their turnout in the 2018 elections higher than it would've been otherwise, which saved a whole bunch of seats for them. Without a SCOTUS confirmation battle just before the election, Democrats would've done even better than we actually did.
I’ve long believed this too
I think it cost us Montana and Tennessee.
Do you mean Missouri, Indiana, or Florida? Tester in Montana still won re-election in 2018.
Tennessee no way. Bredesen lost there by double digits. It may have cost us Florida and I could see the argument for Missouri and Indiana.
Likely Missouri as well, since then-Senator Claire McCaskill voted against Kavanaugh.
Agreed. We'd have probably had six more years of Senator Bill Nelson if not for the Kavanaugh hearings juicing conservative turnout.
Yeah. He would have retired in 2024 and that seat would have likely been an automatic flip for Republicans.
Of course. Still would have been useful to have him around through the end of 2024.
If we're talking a half a point difference Gillum might get across the line under that scenario too.
Is Trump's dementia starting to kick in?
Brad Lander will launch a challenge to Dan Goldman from the left in Ny-10 with backing from Mamdani. He may launch as soon as tomorrow:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/brad-lander-set-to-challenge-rep-dan-goldman-from-the-left-00682619
Great!
I saw him speak recently and he's one of the most thoughtful and intelligent politicians I've ever interacted with. He's to my left on some stuff but I think he'd be a phenomenal congressperson, and I hope he's able to translate a House seat into something bigger down the road since he's only in his 50s.
I'm definitely a supporter.
Agreed. He's to my left too, but I think he's pretty great and would have voted for him in the primary if I still lived in NYC.
Yep 100%.
Brad Lander was the guy I wanted as the next Mayor of New York! If the Democratic establishment had had the moral spine to forcefully reject the candidacies of Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams, and instead united behind Lander, then he may well have had a shot.
That said, I would love to see Lander take a seat in Congress!
PPIC poll of CA Gov primary: Porter 21; Beccera 14; Hlton 14; Bianco 11. (1,086 LVs) Unfortunately, the poll was in the field 11/13–11/19 so it is already dated as it did not include more recently announced candidates.
A generic ballot question gave Dems a huge advantage: 63%-35%.
https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2025/
Without Swalwell it's meaningless, i can see him consolidating the Northern California vote which would be handy against a bunch of people from So Cal.
If Bonta and Mahan jump in that'll split the Bay Area vote too
Bonta yes but Mahan I am not too sure. Bonta and his wife Mia Bonta live in Alameda and Bonta himself served in the City Attorney’s office before. He by contrast has a higher profile.
Mahan is mainly known for being Mayor of San Jose but as a city, there isn’t a whole lot it has done to improve itself in the last 20+ years as far as it’s image is concerned. I have talked to people who live in SJ and nearby in Milpitas and while it has seen progressive change (as well as lots of diversity) and SJ is not the city it used to be back during the 90’s.
The center of tech activity is actually not in SJ but elsewhere in Menlo Park, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Francisco, Santa Clara, etc. Mahan has also only been Mayor of SJ since 2023 so jumping in the gubernatorial race would be bad optics as it might question SJ residents as to why they would need to cut Mahan’s term as Mayor and vote for someone else.
Has he been able to get any dense highrise housing development near transit?
Well, that’s a complicated problem out of Mahan’s control as BART is supposed to be built through Downtown San Jose and Santa Clara in the coming years, where the best incentives for housing development (high rise or not).
There is currently a Berryessa/North San Jose BART station but it’s located in the suburbs, not exactly within walking distance to Downtown. I do believe there have been housing developments in the city but I am not aware enough of specifics. Berkeley and San Francisco I do have more awareness.
Housing development near mass transit, frankly, has been more prominent in Fremont near one of the BART stations and has exploded since before the COVID-19 pandemic. But Fremont is also a less complicated city to manage and safer.
I do believe Mahan has been a decent Mayor from what I have hear but again, he’s only finishing two years in office. I would say finishing his first term would be ideal.
They do have Caltrain.
The last minute Texas shuffle, especially with TX-30, is extremely undesirable. But now Tarrant County Judge is on my radar to donate to at some point next year.
Yea, Tarrant County Judge was a savvy move for Veasey to remain relevant, particularly if there are any breakthroughs statewide next year.
Yeah and Tim O'Hare is one of the most insidious elected officials in the country. He's a vile, racist person.
If so, he has loads of competitors across the country...
Is it true that trump is refusing to release latest inflation data? If so, didn't he once say "you don't take the 5th unless you have something to hide".
He says a lot of shit, but it always applies to other people, unless he identifies with them, in which case, it doesn't apply to them, either.
Crockett is the most able democrat to use the sound bite. This ability can make her a formidable candidate in getting her message out and countering the republican message.
I wouldn’t be too sure about that.
In the 2022 Gubernatorial Race, Beto O’Rourke had tried to do this very thing Crockett has done but with any sound bytes he got, namely with his point of view on gun rights, it did not help him win. He lost by nearly 11% points.
The reality is that Crockett needs to do more than just sound bites and counter messaging. She needs to OWN the Hispanic vote. Right now with her views on Hispanic Trump voters, she’s already starting to potentially squander her opportunity to get more support.
If Crockett were running for the Senate in California, she would be able to have more flexibility with what you are describing. But this is TX and Democrats have not won statewide races and even the Senate races in decades.
I'd agree with you if her sound bites were more moderate-sounding.
NY-Gov:
https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/bruce-blakeman-running-for-new-york-governor-2026/
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is in as a Republican.
Your congressman should withdraw his re election and join Blakeman and Stefanik. Three birds with one stone.
God I wish. I saw a No Labels ad online today thanking Lawler for a health care vote. This is the same Rep who voted for the SNAP cuts. Fuck him and fuck No Labels.
I still think Lawler is finished with a quality opponent. Any idea who might win that Dem primary?
Either Cait Conley or Beth Davidson
Conley is leading in fundraising and seems more dynamic than Davidson. I also saw a poll with Conley beating Lawler, and vice versa with Davidson.
My money’s on Conley.
Lawler is also pro-ICE. How is he supposed to think he’s going to survive re-election next year in a Lean Blue district with his rhetoric the way it is?
https://abc7ny.com/amp/post/rep-mike-lawler-facing-backlash-comment-jose-alvarado-meeting-immigration-yonkers/15933076/
I saw that exact same ad! (In Westchester, but in Latimer's district.)
He could end up being a problem for Gillen & Suozi if he’s the nominee. Zeldin being from LI and performing so strongly there in 2022 led to a wipeout for LI Dems that year.
I think the bigger problem in 2022 is simply that it was a Republican-leaning electorate (albeit underwhelmingly and unevenly so).
Hochul should win much more comfortably this time around.
Yuh-Line Niou will not run for Ny-10 to avoid a fractured field of challengers:
https://x.com/yuhline/status/1998504132303532350
Hope Aviles doesn't run either so Lander is the only challenger
Democrat Eileen Higgins easily becomes mayor of Miami, flipping control for the first time since 1993
https://election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2025-12-09
I know that RDS meathead and TACO ain’t too happy about that.
Hispanic voters having something to say?
Yep. Maybe, just maybe, the governor’s seat and special Senate race isn’t an automatic lock for Republicans next year. They’ll have to actually work for it & not take it for granted.
aw, what the heck...let's add "and they just might lose!"
The point shift, even though it’s a municipal race, has the same percentage shift as most of the other races this year on average. If this means a D+8-10 point shift (and some FL Rs stay home) next year, the governor’s seat will flip. And they lose that legislative supermajority they’ve had for several cycles.
Still, I expect FL to let me down again.
It will be a while before we win statewide in Florida again sadly.
It's best not to expect upsets but to work hard to try to make them possible and be really happy if they happen. We definitely shouldn't write Florida off because of past performance.
And it was almost a 20 pt win, when the Republican candidate won in 2021 by 60 pts. That’s pretty amazing.
To be fair, isn’t this an office Dems should have really held all along due to Presidential results? Even Harris won Miami city in 2024, didn’t she?
Harris did win here, but support from Hispanic voters of local Republicans like the Suarez clan really showed, too.
if things were as they should be they wouldn't hold elections. this represents a major shift in the way voters are looking at the 2 parties...and, all across this freaking country, they finally seem to be seeing the republicans for what they are!!
"if things were as they should be they wouldn't hold elections". Huh?
Turnout in Miami in odd number years are really low and this was no exception. Turnout is looking to be below 25%.
WOW! There's definitely a nationwide shift among Hispanic voters back to Democrats since last year.
Also, this was an election that, IIRC, the Miami city council unsuccessfully tried to postpone for a year in reaction to Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic primary for mayor in NYC.
To be sure, wasn't Manny Diaz kinda sorta a Dem Mayor in the 2000s? He wasn't registered as one when he was Mayor but he became one afterwards and endorsed Obama in 2008.
https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/bennet-supports-colorado-redistricting/
CO: Senator and governor candidate Michael Bennet supports redrawing the maps in Colorado. There seems to be growing momentum for this from the establishment but no official party-sponsored constitutional amendment.
There is currently grassroots proposal for an amendment that would give the governor 'emergency powers' to redraw. IMO I think that groups proposal has a poor chance of passing given how its currently constructed, since people might be reluctant to give a sole executive emergency powers. I hope CO Dems put forth their own amendment soon and get this ball rolling in time for 2026.
Orlando, FL City Council - In a bit of a surprise, moderate candidate Roger Chapin defeated progressive candidate Mira Tanna (IIRC, both are known Democrats) by 200 votes in the Orlando City Council District 3 runoff. With District 1 having flipped from Republican to Democratic back in November, Orlando will have a 5-0 Democratic city council (Orlando municipal elections are technically nonpartisan), although there will be quite a bit of ideological variance on the council.
FL-SD-11: Republican Ralph Massullo holds the seat north of Tampa that Blaise Ingoglia left to become Chief Financial Officer, but the Democrats gained ground by 20 - Ingoglia won re-election 70-30 last year, while Massullo won 60-40.
https://election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2025-12-09/420184
one could say they gained ground by 20: a 40% margin down to a 20% margin. :-)
In GA HD-21, which Trump carried by 12, Dem Eric Gisler currently leads R Dutch Guest 51%-49%.
GA-HD-121.
Thanks.
Now Guest (R) leads 51-48. I cannot tell what % of results are in from which places.
Nearly everything from Oconee County (very Republican) is in; nearly all of the remaining vote is several hundred votes or so to be counted in Clarke County (extremely Democratic). Guest's lead is 345 votes.