Flip NC, ME and AK and it takes it down to 50/50. Hold MI and it stays 50/50. Flip OH...majority. The reason I left out NC, ME and AK is because they seem like easier seats to win than OH and IA. Not sure about this MI race.
There's no sugarcoating that this is worrisome. Given what the electorate should be and how in tilt-R North Carolina Cooper has polled better when both are open seats, and given the challenges in the Michigan Govs race, Michigan could well become our biggest headache to hold.
Even in 2024 where Slotkin routinely overperformed in polling VS. Rogers only to win by the slimmest of margins. He seems to be an overperformer in general.
I have a serious feeling we are not going to see a 2006 redux but instead a 2018 wave that materializes only in the House but not Senate.
There's no need for apocalyptic freakouts. There's a reason Rogers can't get above 45% of the vote against McMorrow and Stevens despite having a huge name rec advantage. The AES numbers are the concern here. I hate to say it, but I fear much of the discrepancy is driven by aversion to his name and Islamophobia. Some of his positions on past things are not helpful either, but I doubt many people outside those plugged in are really aware of those.
Democrats have been vastly overperforming 2024 margins in special elections, but I noticed that AL Republican Norman Crow won his special election 64-36 in a district that Trump only won 58-41 in 2024. Any concern by that rare over performance for the GOP against all the blue over performances we had been seeing prior?
There's no such thing as a uniform swing, there will be underperformances, I'm not worried about how one special election result in Alabama affects the overall situation.
When does the University of Alabama get back from winter break? The previous Digest said that this district contains part of the University of Alabama campus, and if the district's Democratic base is therefore college students and they aren't back from break yet, that would explain the Democratic underperformance.
This last set of special elections results across the board were the worst for Democrats since before Trump got elected again. Is the GOP base awake again over the ICE murders (which they love)? Or is this an abnormal blip that’ll go back to the normal over performances we’ve been used to seeing? Only time will tell.
I’d lean thinking it’s an aberration, but definitely worth watching the special elections results in February and/or late January.
2/4 of the results last night were outstanding for Dems, one was good, and one was poor. Not sure you can read anything into that, but to me it doesn’t look like any sort of GOP reenergized
And, as posted last night, a poll taken by Alaska Survey Research last week (1/8-1/11) found Peltola leading Sullivan by 48%-46%. On favorability, the poll found Peltola was +5 while Sullivan is -11.
AOC has endorsed Peltola and is fundraising for her—something that would not have happened if Peltola hadn't sought the endorsement.
It also underscores how much things have changed since 2020, when battleground House candidates returned AOC's PAC donations to avoid being associated with her.
Mayor Meh, I mean Greenberg, may have been involved in discussions about the nonpartisan elections law, but neither Metro Council nor we voters got a say. As a Louisvillian, I can live with it, and I can even see a small-d democratic argument for it, but I am not happy with how it was done.
I'll probably vote for Parrish-Wright, since she's the only candidate other than Greenberg who I know is a Democrat, and the only other one (aside from Republican perennial Bob DeVore) I know anything at all about. Personally, I'd like to see them finish 1-2, just to flip a metaphorical bird at the General Ass-embly.
Totally agree. Using commas and semi-colons to separate everything in one blob of text is not reader-friendly. I realize it's the site's style, and it works in most cases, but not this time.
It also helps that the MI Democratic trifecta helped loosen and make voting much more accessible during that 2023-2024 trifecta too (esp making a permanent absentee voting list). And pre-processing ballots so there won't be any more red mirages come 2026 and 2028.
I posted this last night, saw it didn't make it to Wednesday's Morning Digest: a Democrat won the Fort Pierce city commission special runoff election last night by 31 votes. His win flips the majority on the commission to Democratic control.
"Axios: Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens is blasting her Democratic rivals in the state's critical Senate primary, criticizing one of her opponents for supporting the Green New Deal and calling the other weak on manufacturing.
GND has always been a centrist attack line but negative attacks this early show her desperation and possibly bad internal polling. McMorrow and AES have taken potshots at each other but mild based on policy. They should go nuclear on Stevens.
Seems likely that Mamdani and progressive strategist Morris Katz are pulling all their levers to prevent Goldman-Auchincloss 2.0 and will endorse Lasher.
Hopefully he's working Laura Kelly behind the scenes to change her mind. There's not much benefit to jumping in the race early for her. Her announcing on filing day would be enough to catch Republicans by surprise.
Sara Gideon, the Democratic nominee who challenged Senator Susan Collins in 2020, has contributed $4,000 from her former campaign committee to Gov. Janet Mills' 2026 U.S. Senate bid.
Gideon's PAC reported approximately $3.3 million in cash on hand as of Sep. 2025.
I'm cynical about both candidates in this primary and disappointed by national Democrats continuing to perpetuate people like Mills and Gideon into the spotlight only to lose. And I'm prone to sarcasm.
I'm failing to see the similarities between Mills and Gideon aside from their gender. One has won statewide twice, has deep Maine roots, and is from the rural part of the state. The other did not have any of that.
Mills is vulnerable on the age front and some of her decisions as governor. My frustration is people not being intellectually honest about Platner's weaknesses in this primary while being quick to diss Mills.
MI Senate: Detroit News poll:
Rogers 44 Stevens 44
Rogers 46 McMorrow 42
Rogers 48 El-Sayed 42
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/2011387571507450010?s=20
Ugh
Rogers has far greater name ID and was running even with Slotkin at this point 2 years ago.
It’s early in the game, a lot can change – in both directions.
Those polls for governor in the digest are worrisome. Control of the Senate could hinge on the neighboring Michigan and Ohio.
Huh. I am not sure that Senate hinges on there. Which means already flipping NC, ME, IA, AK.
Flip NC, ME and AK and it takes it down to 50/50. Hold MI and it stays 50/50. Flip OH...majority. The reason I left out NC, ME and AK is because they seem like easier seats to win than OH and IA. Not sure about this MI race.
McMorrow has half the name ID of AES and Stevens.
Name ID (general election universe)
Rogers 71%
El-Sayed 47%
Stevens 42%
McMorrow 24%
Definitely worrying about El-Sayed being the most known Dem but polling 6 points under. McMorrow has a lot of upside it seems.
There's no sugarcoating that this is worrisome. Given what the electorate should be and how in tilt-R North Carolina Cooper has polled better when both are open seats, and given the challenges in the Michigan Govs race, Michigan could well become our biggest headache to hold.
Even in 2024 where Slotkin routinely overperformed in polling VS. Rogers only to win by the slimmest of margins. He seems to be an overperformer in general.
I have a serious feeling we are not going to see a 2006 redux but instead a 2018 wave that materializes only in the House but not Senate.
There's no need for apocalyptic freakouts. There's a reason Rogers can't get above 45% of the vote against McMorrow and Stevens despite having a huge name rec advantage. The AES numbers are the concern here. I hate to say it, but I fear much of the discrepancy is driven by aversion to his name and Islamophobia. Some of his positions on past things are not helpful either, but I doubt many people outside those plugged in are really aware of those.
Democrats have been vastly overperforming 2024 margins in special elections, but I noticed that AL Republican Norman Crow won his special election 64-36 in a district that Trump only won 58-41 in 2024. Any concern by that rare over performance for the GOP against all the blue over performances we had been seeing prior?
It's Alabama.
There's no such thing as a uniform swing, there will be underperformances, I'm not worried about how one special election result in Alabama affects the overall situation.
When does the University of Alabama get back from winter break? The previous Digest said that this district contains part of the University of Alabama campus, and if the district's Democratic base is therefore college students and they aren't back from break yet, that would explain the Democratic underperformance.
This last set of special elections results across the board were the worst for Democrats since before Trump got elected again. Is the GOP base awake again over the ICE murders (which they love)? Or is this an abnormal blip that’ll go back to the normal over performances we’ve been used to seeing? Only time will tell.
I’d lean thinking it’s an aberration, but definitely worth watching the special elections results in February and/or late January.
The notable exceptions came in places with college towns where students aren't back yet. I'd wait until the end of the month before freaking out.
2/4 of the results last night were outstanding for Dems, one was good, and one was poor. Not sure you can read anything into that, but to me it doesn’t look like any sort of GOP reenergized
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/773688-evan-power-to-run-for-congress-to-succeed-retiring-neal-dunn/
FL-2: As expected, state GOP chair Evan Power is running for congress.
I suspect Sens. Jay Trumbull and Corey Simon as well as Rep. Jason Shoaf in the legislature are interested, but no word yet.
AK Sen: Mary Peltola raised $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her senate campaign, a sum greater than Sullivan raised in 3Q. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/14/mary-peltola-alaska-fundraising-00726856
And, as posted last night, a poll taken by Alaska Survey Research last week (1/8-1/11) found Peltola leading Sullivan by 48%-46%. On favorability, the poll found Peltola was +5 while Sullivan is -11.
AOC has endorsed Peltola and is fundraising for her—something that would not have happened if Peltola hadn't sought the endorsement.
It also underscores how much things have changed since 2020, when battleground House candidates returned AOC's PAC donations to avoid being associated with her.
Mayor Meh, I mean Greenberg, may have been involved in discussions about the nonpartisan elections law, but neither Metro Council nor we voters got a say. As a Louisvillian, I can live with it, and I can even see a small-d democratic argument for it, but I am not happy with how it was done.
I'll probably vote for Parrish-Wright, since she's the only candidate other than Greenberg who I know is a Democrat, and the only other one (aside from Republican perennial Bob DeVore) I know anything at all about. Personally, I'd like to see them finish 1-2, just to flip a metaphorical bird at the General Ass-embly.
The Glengariff Poll in the Morning Digest is unreadable, atleast to me.
Totally agree. Using commas and semi-colons to separate everything in one blob of text is not reader-friendly. I realize it's the site's style, and it works in most cases, but not this time.
Yeah, I'm not happy looking at it now in final form. Edited to try something else that I think looks better here.
*miles* better, thank you so much
Michigan Senate: "Definite Voters"
🟦 Haley Stevens: 47%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 42%
—
🟦 Mallory McMorrow: 46.2%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 42.7%
—
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46.6%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 43.3%
——
"Democrats (88%) were significantly more motivated to vote than Republicans (72%)"
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2011442628823585019
It also helps that the MI Democratic trifecta helped loosen and make voting much more accessible during that 2023-2024 trifecta too (esp making a permanent absentee voting list). And pre-processing ballots so there won't be any more red mirages come 2026 and 2028.
I posted this last night, saw it didn't make it to Wednesday's Morning Digest: a Democrat won the Fort Pierce city commission special runoff election last night by 31 votes. His win flips the majority on the commission to Democratic control.
https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/story/news/local/st-lucie-county/2026/01/13/chris-dzadovsky-defeats-jaimebeth-galinis-in-tight-race-in-fort-pierce-treasure-coast-florida/88106496007/
https://www.wptv.com/news/region-st-lucie-county/fort-pierce/chris-dzadovsky-wins-fort-pierce-commission-seat-by-31-votes-flips-control-to-democrats
"Axios: Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens is blasting her Democratic rivals in the state's critical Senate primary, criticizing one of her opponents for supporting the Green New Deal and calling the other weak on manufacturing.
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/14/haley-stevens-michigan-senate-mcmorrow-el-sayed"
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2011247087544045828
Stevens goes negative.
Is she trying to lose? Since when is the Green New Deal a Democratic attack line?
Do they really think they can win without any left votes at all?
GND has always been a centrist attack line but negative attacks this early show her desperation and possibly bad internal polling. McMorrow and AES have taken potshots at each other but mild based on policy. They should go nuclear on Stevens.
Stevens is the 3rd best Dem in that race by a wide margin.
We appear to have a set of Democrats who are determined to go with the right-wing flow as we step into this new future.
Stevens went negative on Andy Levin in the 2022 primary, so this is nothing new.
I have a feeling that Andy Levin will have the last laugh and that primary will prove to be her downfall.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/01/14/another-shake-up-in-tumultuous-ny-12-race-00726869?
Cameron Kasky bows out of the NY-12 primary.
Seems likely that Mamdani and progressive strategist Morris Katz are pulling all their levers to prevent Goldman-Auchincloss 2.0 and will endorse Lasher.
No VRA case today YAY
Not sure if this was posted yet:
Alaska Senate by Alaska Survey Research
Peltola: 48
Sullivan: 46
1/8-11 | RV
Crosstabs in the link
https://x.com/i/status/2011280817281003808
Anchorage metro area: won by both Biden and Harris by 2. Won by Sullivan by 3 in 2020. Peltola up by 9.
Chuck Schumer:
Peltola “was the last piece to the puzzle"
He says Dem path to Senate is Ohio, Alaska, Maine and NC. Democrats are watching Texas and Iowa
Hopefully he's working Laura Kelly behind the scenes to change her mind. There's not much benefit to jumping in the race early for her. Her announcing on filing day would be enough to catch Republicans by surprise.
Sara Gideon, the Democratic nominee who challenged Senator Susan Collins in 2020, has contributed $4,000 from her former campaign committee to Gov. Janet Mills' 2026 U.S. Senate bid.
Gideon's PAC reported approximately $3.3 million in cash on hand as of Sep. 2025.
In other news, a fork was found in a kitchen.
How is this productive? Many people here love any semblance of pro-Platner news. This is just as relevant to the Maine primary as any of that.
I'm cynical about both candidates in this primary and disappointed by national Democrats continuing to perpetuate people like Mills and Gideon into the spotlight only to lose. And I'm prone to sarcasm.
I'm failing to see the similarities between Mills and Gideon aside from their gender. One has won statewide twice, has deep Maine roots, and is from the rural part of the state. The other did not have any of that.
Mills is vulnerable on the age front and some of her decisions as governor. My frustration is people not being intellectually honest about Platner's weaknesses in this primary while being quick to diss Mills.
They're both establishment friendly, legacy neoliberal career politicians.
Hmm. I don't see that same criticism launched at other forty year politicians like Roy Cooper or Bernie Sanders. "Neoliberal" has lost all meaning.
Justice Democrats backs Claire Valdez for the open Ny-7:
https://x.com/justicedems/status/2011430931807007095
The coalitions are interesting:
It's Democratic socialists, Justice Dems, Mamdani and organized labor vs New York's non-DSA progressives, Velazquez and Hasidim.
Virginia Democrats plan to release proposed new congressional maps by January 30.
Ugh. I don't see much upside to this unless they say something like "we'll choose among these three"