Of all the competitive Senate primaries, this is the only one we haven't seen many (if any) polls of, and I'm intensely curious. My dad was asking who he should give money to in order to flip the Senate and I almost recommended Turek, but I first want to see polling to make sure Wahls isn't quietly running away with it. I don't think he is, but I'd like some evidence for that.
It could end up like Texas - the consensus liberal known by regular voters (Jasmine Crockett) loses to the underdog, progressive upstart (James Talarico)
True although I was really appreciative of the fact that Crockett promptly conceded and became civil in lending her support to Talarico after he won the primary.
With the lack of real information, I've been sitting this one out and will donate to whoever wins the primary. I am, however, donating to Bohannan and Trone Garriott. Hopefully, if they do well in November, it will help our senate candidate and vice versa.
Even assuming that Zach Wahls loses the Democratic primary, I wonder if he wouldn't try to run again in 2028. With Chuck Grassley at 92 now, he's almost certain to retire and 2028 shouldn't be any better for the GOP, even with Democrats probably back in power. A lot will hinge on who the Democrats nominate in 2028 for president.
Given my general preference for the leftmost candidate electable in a given jurisdiction, I think the only potential argument Turek has is one of superior electability, which I'm not 100% sure is valid. Hassan and Cortez Masto are in his corner, so I'm confident he's not going to win me on policy.
A lot of us appreciate the humor in dealing with serious topics. It helps us cope with the craziness of the present times. The GOPs are experiencing "Panic ! at Tedisco" over the current polling. That is a good thing...
I'd love to believe that Healthier United poll, but it's an outlier. Bigly. Cooper is in a good spot, but the gap is closer to 8 than 18. I wouldn't worry much, though. Coop is the most popular politician in the state and secured more votes in his primary than ALL other candidates combined. That's on both sides. And it wasn't close. He also has near universal name recognition and a campaign machine that's been winning statewide elections since 2000. Whatley is a neophyte. He's never run for anything, and while that can work in a candidate's favor it seldom does at this level. Add in a depressed voter base, little name recognition and no seeming ambition to change that very much, and you have an unknown candidate who is basically a referendum on Trump. Because his proximity to Trump is pretty much the ONLY attribute he has working for him. so his fortunes are inextricably entwined with Pol Potbelly's. His voters haven't figured out who he is yet and he's running out of racetrack if he wants to change that.
Like I said, if Cooper secured a Stein/Spanberger sized blowout in a midterm year, that would greatly reduce the GOP supermajority in both houses -- if not flip the state House to Democratic control.
Well I figure the only way Cooper wins as big as Stein is if he’s running against Mark Robinson, which is pretty much how Stein won by a Stein-sized margin. Since he’s *not*, I think half a Stein is a reasonable expectation, which should carry enough coattails to swing a sizable number of NCGA seats. If we *do* see a majority in either house, it’ll probably have more to do with Anderson Clayton securing candidates in all 170 legislative districts than anything. I can see a couple of US House districts flipping as well (NC9 and NC11), not becuase of coattails but because the challengers are putting in the work while the incumbents are hiding in their bunkers.
Flipping the state House this year in NC would be a very big deal (especially with the gerrymandering). NC Republicans would no longer be able to pass red meat bills; they would have to meet in the middle with Democrats to pass budgets and common-sense legislation.
The state senate might be an easier lift, just in terms of sheer numbers and bigger (i.e. harder to gerrymander) districts. But either way, the best that flipping just one chamber can (reliably) do is to bring Raleigh to a grinding halt. THe NCGA — at its most fundamental level — has one job: Pass a budget. Which they haven’t done in either of the past 2 FY. But since the state operates on what’s effectively a permanent CR, there’s no incentive to do that since the CR leaves funding at current levels. The PROBLEM with that is that EXPENSES aren’t conforming to that budget plan, and the state constitution mandates a balanced budget, so as X gets more expensive courtesy of the idiots in DC, the budget in Raleigh effectively shrinks because funding levels for FY 2024 don’t buy as much X at 2026 prices.
But there’s enough anger bubbling among the electorate that if they have the opportunity to vote against the Republican incumbent, they just might do it. At that point, it becomes a matter of Doing The Thing You Promised. Because it’s not enough to win a majority if you can’t hold it.
I think the Duke Energy rate increases (which the GOP 'working supermajority' greenlit via their veto override) will play a factor in this midterm election too. Because the Democratic candidates challenging the GOP incumbents can point to that as 'they campaigned on lower prices, but they let Duke Energy raise your bills'.
It won’t help them (the GOP). Especially if Dems tie it to the larger affordability issues being exacerbated every day by Republicans at every level of government. “How much more of this do we have to take?”
Another hit, in a particularly red part of the state will be the still-not-funded hurricane relief. The Republican supermajority forced a bill through in the lame duck session that was *called* a hurricane disaster relief bill, but in fact appropriated NO money for hurricanes relief, and was the vehicle they used take the State Board of Elections out of the control of the governor's office (where it had been since forever) and put it under… the state Auditor? Then appointed a former chair of the NCGOP to oversee elections? Republican voters will forgive a LOT if your name has an “R” behind it, but a betrayal like this — done solely as a partisan power grab — is going to go down badly with them. Assuming the opposition party has the sack to leverage it, which in years gone by I would say they did not. But there’s a new sheriff in town and she’s fierce.
I’ve been following Richard Ojeda since well before he got in the race for NC09. The latest redistributing diluted the district from R+11 to R+8, and the *generic* ballot right now is around D+6. But while Richard Hudson was building out the Bunker Strategy for the NRCC and hiding from his constituents, Ojeda was out working the district street by street — himself, not by proxy. Was it effective? The proof will be in the ballot, but anecdotally I can say I ran into him by chance at the Dropkick Murphys show in Raleigh last month, and in the space of 15-20 minutes no fewer than 3 other people recognized him and wanted photos and promised they’d be voting for him (I don’t live in the 9th so all I can do is send money). This was in *Raleigh*, not a campaign event, in bad lighting, in a mosh pit in between bands. Granted it’s a small sample size, but this was miles away from the district on a Saturday night. And sure, the Venn Diagram of voters who would support Ojeda and DKM fans is probably pretty close to 100% overlap, but it does seem like the name recognition efforts are working.
Well now he’s up with Independents - come on Hochul!!!! There’s no way I’m dealing with another barely 6 point win like last time especially when Sherrill and Spanberger crushed it last Fall….
And her response has been to find this odd centrist lane that manages to piss off both progressives and center-right folks. Her political acumen is just horrendous.
lol never thought I’d say this but “thank you” to conservative leaning Echelon Insights which just released their poll having her up 15 points… I can breathe a little easier here in NY now…
i think it bears noting how much hocul is burning green groups in her push to scale back climate goals for 2030, not saying she's going to lose, but I think the green party nominee will crack at least 5% in the deep blue (not that many) upstate counties of Albany, Erie, Onondoga, and maybe Tompkins.
There is precedence for this, I know we will not have another 2014 this year, but in 2014 cuomo only got 43% in Albany County, 51 in erie, 51 in onondoga, and 52 in tompkins, with each of the aforementioned counties giving the green's 5 % of vote. In albany county the greens got 12% of the vote, and at the time albany was still running one of the last functioning machines in the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_York_gubernatorial_election
Cuomo got a higher percentage of the vote in Staten Island 56% than Tompkins (college towns). I fear we are looking at a similar outcome here. That said cuomo still won by 14% points statewide by doing better in conservative areas, but the liberal discontent with hocul should not be sidelined, and may give an opening to some downballot republicans in the aforementioned counties. The Time Union, one of the last solid newspapers upstate does great reporting on this regularly. Paper covers Albany Saratoga and Rensselaer Counties. timesunion.com
If your main concern is that polling in March already shows a doubling of a win margin in the closest NY Governor race in decades, I suggest spending your time worrying about something else more useful of your time.
Polls bounce around a lot, it’s normal, that’s why there’s an average, but Hochul has already locked in double the support margin from 2022 in March, 8 months away from the elections. She’s doing pretty good imo.
no disagreement there, shes doing good in polling and if mannion could win in syracuse in 2024, new york results should be just fine. i just think new york could do better than hochul when it comes to the many dem options in the state. jay jacobs and co clearly don't agree
I think you need to differentiate between the 2025 Hochul and 2022 Hochul. She’s shifted left by a lot on a lot of issues as she’s a shrewd politician who can sense the way the wind is blowing in our party, similar to Biden’s gift, it’s a strong suit to change with the times and Democratic 2022 voters wouldn’t recognize her today.
So yes, we could absolutely have better, but comparing her to Cuomo or any other Governor the last quarter century, she’s the most left we’ve really seen a Democrat. Better than Cuomo isn’t a high bar to meet for a Democrat, but she’s exceeded my expectations and we could do WAY worse than her too.
Nate Silver never stopped using his "secret sauce". Which meant no-one could really replicate his methodology or test his results. In this one respect, I always had far more respect for the open-source analysis of Prof. Sam Wang and his Princeton Election Consortium.
I thought the Michigan Poll was interesting. Perry Johnson has spent a ton of money on TV advertising, and yet he is still behind John James. I saw the first ad this weekend for James here in the Detroit Market. The James ad features Trump giving James ringing endorsements filmed at several earlier Trump Rallies. I have seen no Democratic candidates ads yet at all.
I would love to see more polling comparing Benson to Republicans showing the after affects of No Kings Day 3.Did all that signage sway more undecideds?
This is absolutely unbelievable that the courts will allow parents to torture children with conversion therapy, because they're right wing religious zealots, but ban legitimate trans medical treatment.
We have to win the Senate, throw away the filibuster, and expand the court.
I believe this ruling against children's rights on free speech grounds opens up a bucket of worms on all types of "parental rights" based on free speech. A lot of these Christian zealots believe the parents have the right to beat children senseless short of killing them. This right wing free speech claim is a slippery slope. Would the same logic overturn child abuse laws?
Both of the Obama-appointed Justices sided with the conservatives, which is an absolute surprise and especially worrying if it's the beginning of a rightward shift by Sotomayor and Kagan. It's important to note that SCOTUS didn't directly strike down Colorado's conversion therapy ban, but sent the case to a lower court that would likely strike down the law.
Freedom of speech has limits when it directly threatens the health and well-being of innocent people. Hello, “can’t yell fire in a crowded theater”. This was not a free speech decision, this was a religious ideology, driven claim of free speech, but one that has harsh negative long lasting impacts on vulnerable people.
This has nothing to do with yelling fire in a crowded theater. It's like the "heckler's veto" analogy. People don't like what is being said--the verbal counseling--so they want to ban it.
In an 8-1 vote, the Supreme Court holds that Colorado’s ban on “conversion therapy,” as applied to petitioner's talk therapy, violates the First Amendment because it constitutes viewpoint discrimination
Where do the rights and protection of the children come in. Prior to these types of laws, where children were forced to go through this conversation therapy, we had children committing suicide. That's why these laws were passed. I'm going to side with protecting children from zealot parents.
The free speech grounds for this come across as really tenuous.
The claim from Gorsuch is "it censors speech based on viewpoint." If we're in a place where anything that is otherwise regulated can be called a "censorship" of a "viewpoint" then regulations will only exist for non-conservatives.
The same logic could apply to any regulation that touches on anything that is communicated in some way, shape, or form, and thus could be pretended to be a free speech issue.
Jackson's dissent is as long as Gorsuch's majority opinion and Kagan's concurrence combined. I love her so much.
I don't think it's as bad as it's being made out to be, SCOTUS just remanded the case back to the district court and directed it to be reconsidered in light of the Salazar opinion to not discriminate against speech.
Don't get me wrong, I still don't like the opinion. But it's not as bad as it could have been, and that could be the influence of Kagan/Sotomayor.
If this is true, meaning loyal R voters this year will either vote for Democrats as an F-you to their party or sit out the midterms, the 2026 midterms could be a tsunami.
Best ever result despite being the most unpopular version of the party ever. Like I said before, voters don’t give a fuck what each party does or says, they’ll vote for them to stop whatever party is in power when they’re mad, regardless of what that opposite party looks like or promises.
This is exactly why I advocate the Democratic party moving left overall like the GOP moved far right, we don’t actually lose any voters, but we gain back our progressive/left base who haven’t come out for us at large scale numbers since Obama.
This is the largest recorded party ID advantage DEMs have had in any quarter since Gallup started tracking it in Q1 2015. GOP has never fallen below 40!
If the general election today, there'd be a bigger blue wave than 2018's in national environment. Trump's approval + Gallup party ID is a couple points worse compared to this time in 2018 and by Eday 2018.
We are not supposed to debate Democratic presidential primaries, but I think it's clear from the 2020 election results that presidential candidates I supported would have lost. It's clear to me that voters don't give a fuck how horrible the Republicans are if they're mad at the Democrats. It's unclear to me the extent to which the reverse is true.
Polling is always a lagging indicator, now the horrific disapproval on issues is starting to creep into the overall disapproval numbers. Trump never broke below his 40% floor in his first term, now we’re seeing multiple polls with that happening.
Good. Get it -50 for good measure. Crush Trumpism at last and salt the earth over it so we can begin the long, hard process of having other countries taking us half-seriously again
And more corrupt, much more destructive domestically, guilty of crimes of much more turpitude, and more unpredictable than Nixon, and incompetent, too, which Nixon emphatically was not.
Former GA state Sen. Jason Esteves has climbed to second place as the Dem GOV primary likely faces a runoff, according to a poll obtained exclusively by
Thurmond is in last place at 11% but that still puts him ten points ahead of Tony Thurmond, who is running for CA-Gov (and was at 1% in a recent poll).
Of all the competitive Senate primaries, this is the only one we haven't seen many (if any) polls of, and I'm intensely curious. My dad was asking who he should give money to in order to flip the Senate and I almost recommended Turek, but I first want to see polling to make sure Wahls isn't quietly running away with it. I don't think he is, but I'd like some evidence for that.
It could end up like Texas - the consensus liberal known by regular voters (Jasmine Crockett) loses to the underdog, progressive upstart (James Talarico)
Definitely support Josh. He needs as much support as possible to make this race as winnable as possible
I don't think that analogy works. Talarico was in the race first and his rhetoric is more conciliatory while Crockett's is more inflammatory.
True although I was really appreciative of the fact that Crockett promptly conceded and became civil in lending her support to Talarico after he won the primary.
With the lack of real information, I've been sitting this one out and will donate to whoever wins the primary. I am, however, donating to Bohannan and Trone Garriott. Hopefully, if they do well in November, it will help our senate candidate and vice versa.
Josh has ran against Rs in a Trump district, and actually outran rob sand in 2022
Even assuming that Zach Wahls loses the Democratic primary, I wonder if he wouldn't try to run again in 2028. With Chuck Grassley at 92 now, he's almost certain to retire and 2028 shouldn't be any better for the GOP, even with Democrats probably back in power. A lot will hinge on who the Democrats nominate in 2028 for president.
I’d rather the strongest candidate run under much more favorable conditions to secure a lock
Those seem like valid attacks. Not the personal attacks but attacks on the votes.
Given my general preference for the leftmost candidate electable in a given jurisdiction, I think the only potential argument Turek has is one of superior electability, which I'm not 100% sure is valid. Hassan and Cortez Masto are in his corner, so I'm confident he's not going to win me on policy.
The title of this digest almost made me choke on my coffee. And it’s sure to enter the Downballot Classics Hall of Fame!
A lot of us appreciate the humor in dealing with serious topics. It helps us cope with the craziness of the present times. The GOPs are experiencing "Panic ! at Tedisco" over the current polling. That is a good thing...
While Republicans have Panic! at Tedisco, Democrats can increasingly have High Hopes...
Sanford has the outside trek in this race locked up!
Good one!
I'd love to believe that Healthier United poll, but it's an outlier. Bigly. Cooper is in a good spot, but the gap is closer to 8 than 18. I wouldn't worry much, though. Coop is the most popular politician in the state and secured more votes in his primary than ALL other candidates combined. That's on both sides. And it wasn't close. He also has near universal name recognition and a campaign machine that's been winning statewide elections since 2000. Whatley is a neophyte. He's never run for anything, and while that can work in a candidate's favor it seldom does at this level. Add in a depressed voter base, little name recognition and no seeming ambition to change that very much, and you have an unknown candidate who is basically a referendum on Trump. Because his proximity to Trump is pretty much the ONLY attribute he has working for him. so his fortunes are inextricably entwined with Pol Potbelly's. His voters haven't figured out who he is yet and he's running out of racetrack if he wants to change that.
Like I said, if Cooper secured a Stein/Spanberger sized blowout in a midterm year, that would greatly reduce the GOP supermajority in both houses -- if not flip the state House to Democratic control.
Well I figure the only way Cooper wins as big as Stein is if he’s running against Mark Robinson, which is pretty much how Stein won by a Stein-sized margin. Since he’s *not*, I think half a Stein is a reasonable expectation, which should carry enough coattails to swing a sizable number of NCGA seats. If we *do* see a majority in either house, it’ll probably have more to do with Anderson Clayton securing candidates in all 170 legislative districts than anything. I can see a couple of US House districts flipping as well (NC9 and NC11), not becuase of coattails but because the challengers are putting in the work while the incumbents are hiding in their bunkers.
Flipping the state House this year in NC would be a very big deal (especially with the gerrymandering). NC Republicans would no longer be able to pass red meat bills; they would have to meet in the middle with Democrats to pass budgets and common-sense legislation.
The state senate might be an easier lift, just in terms of sheer numbers and bigger (i.e. harder to gerrymander) districts. But either way, the best that flipping just one chamber can (reliably) do is to bring Raleigh to a grinding halt. THe NCGA — at its most fundamental level — has one job: Pass a budget. Which they haven’t done in either of the past 2 FY. But since the state operates on what’s effectively a permanent CR, there’s no incentive to do that since the CR leaves funding at current levels. The PROBLEM with that is that EXPENSES aren’t conforming to that budget plan, and the state constitution mandates a balanced budget, so as X gets more expensive courtesy of the idiots in DC, the budget in Raleigh effectively shrinks because funding levels for FY 2024 don’t buy as much X at 2026 prices.
But there’s enough anger bubbling among the electorate that if they have the opportunity to vote against the Republican incumbent, they just might do it. At that point, it becomes a matter of Doing The Thing You Promised. Because it’s not enough to win a majority if you can’t hold it.
I think the Duke Energy rate increases (which the GOP 'working supermajority' greenlit via their veto override) will play a factor in this midterm election too. Because the Democratic candidates challenging the GOP incumbents can point to that as 'they campaigned on lower prices, but they let Duke Energy raise your bills'.
It won’t help them (the GOP). Especially if Dems tie it to the larger affordability issues being exacerbated every day by Republicans at every level of government. “How much more of this do we have to take?”
Another hit, in a particularly red part of the state will be the still-not-funded hurricane relief. The Republican supermajority forced a bill through in the lame duck session that was *called* a hurricane disaster relief bill, but in fact appropriated NO money for hurricanes relief, and was the vehicle they used take the State Board of Elections out of the control of the governor's office (where it had been since forever) and put it under… the state Auditor? Then appointed a former chair of the NCGOP to oversee elections? Republican voters will forgive a LOT if your name has an “R” behind it, but a betrayal like this — done solely as a partisan power grab — is going to go down badly with them. Assuming the opposition party has the sack to leverage it, which in years gone by I would say they did not. But there’s a new sheriff in town and she’s fierce.
Id say NC11 might be closer to 50-50. Other than that NC13 is more flippable. 09 might be out of reach.
Don’t see a chance to hold NC01.
davis is a survivor, but it will be tough. if cooper wins by 8 I think davis wins, if cooper wins by 5 davis loses
I’ve been following Richard Ojeda since well before he got in the race for NC09. The latest redistributing diluted the district from R+11 to R+8, and the *generic* ballot right now is around D+6. But while Richard Hudson was building out the Bunker Strategy for the NRCC and hiding from his constituents, Ojeda was out working the district street by street — himself, not by proxy. Was it effective? The proof will be in the ballot, but anecdotally I can say I ran into him by chance at the Dropkick Murphys show in Raleigh last month, and in the space of 15-20 minutes no fewer than 3 other people recognized him and wanted photos and promised they’d be voting for him (I don’t live in the 9th so all I can do is send money). This was in *Raleigh*, not a campaign event, in bad lighting, in a mosh pit in between bands. Granted it’s a small sample size, but this was miles away from the district on a Saturday night. And sure, the Venn Diagram of voters who would support Ojeda and DKM fans is probably pretty close to 100% overlap, but it does seem like the name recognition efforts are working.
recced for "half a Stein". I feel like that should become common nomenclature here...
"Pol Potbelly" is a new one for me. It is amazing how many derogatory nicknames that Mad King Donald has acquired !
I wish I could claim credit for it, but it was Wonkette regular @gallbladder that coined that one.
My favorite one is still Agent Orange.
My favorite of my own creations was Tangerine Cthulhu coined during the pandemic. Also Mr. Tangerine Man, with accompanying parody song of course.
Sienna poll has Hochul lead narrowing down to 13 from 20 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
OMG, Blakementum!
Blakemanmentum? Blakemantum?
Well now he’s up with Independents - come on Hochul!!!! There’s no way I’m dealing with another barely 6 point win like last time especially when Sherrill and Spanberger crushed it last Fall….
So why has NY shifted right? Is it just a response to dems being in charge?
Its really more about Hochul being pretty unpopular, and not particularly effective than it is about moving right.
I actually think Long Island will have some pleasant surprises for us in November in some races.
I disagree, the state has shifted right, Trumps 43% proves that
Hard to imagine a scenario where any Dem wins NY-Gov by less than double digits in the current political environment.
Concerning, particularly if, like Zeldin, he has coattails that jeopardize House seats.
There is not much difference between Suozzi, Gillen and run-of-the-mill Republicans.
other than their voting records, but yes they're lack of personalities is remarkably similar
Suozzi has a personality, just a problematic one.
And her response has been to find this odd centrist lane that manages to piss off both progressives and center-right folks. Her political acumen is just horrendous.
All Cuomo era remnants in NY should go. And Hochul qualifies.
Her primary opponent bowed out, so I think it's her or bust.
I haven't heard new stuff from her lately, maybe because I've mostly been in Germany. What's she doing or saying now?
The only positive here is that we’re in an off year blue wave shaping up midterm which SHOULD carry over especially in NYC
lol never thought I’d say this but “thank you” to conservative leaning Echelon Insights which just released their poll having her up 15 points… I can breathe a little easier here in NY now…
i think it bears noting how much hocul is burning green groups in her push to scale back climate goals for 2030, not saying she's going to lose, but I think the green party nominee will crack at least 5% in the deep blue (not that many) upstate counties of Albany, Erie, Onondoga, and maybe Tompkins.
There is precedence for this, I know we will not have another 2014 this year, but in 2014 cuomo only got 43% in Albany County, 51 in erie, 51 in onondoga, and 52 in tompkins, with each of the aforementioned counties giving the green's 5 % of vote. In albany county the greens got 12% of the vote, and at the time albany was still running one of the last functioning machines in the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_York_gubernatorial_election
Cuomo got a higher percentage of the vote in Staten Island 56% than Tompkins (college towns). I fear we are looking at a similar outcome here. That said cuomo still won by 14% points statewide by doing better in conservative areas, but the liberal discontent with hocul should not be sidelined, and may give an opening to some downballot republicans in the aforementioned counties. The Time Union, one of the last solid newspapers upstate does great reporting on this regularly. Paper covers Albany Saratoga and Rensselaer Counties. timesunion.com
When the next midterm election season comes in 2030, there is hope for NY Democrats to nominate a much better gubernatorial candidate.
If your main concern is that polling in March already shows a doubling of a win margin in the closest NY Governor race in decades, I suggest spending your time worrying about something else more useful of your time.
Polls bounce around a lot, it’s normal, that’s why there’s an average, but Hochul has already locked in double the support margin from 2022 in March, 8 months away from the elections. She’s doing pretty good imo.
Wish I could rec this about a million times...
no disagreement there, shes doing good in polling and if mannion could win in syracuse in 2024, new york results should be just fine. i just think new york could do better than hochul when it comes to the many dem options in the state. jay jacobs and co clearly don't agree
I think you need to differentiate between the 2025 Hochul and 2022 Hochul. She’s shifted left by a lot on a lot of issues as she’s a shrewd politician who can sense the way the wind is blowing in our party, similar to Biden’s gift, it’s a strong suit to change with the times and Democratic 2022 voters wouldn’t recognize her today.
So yes, we could absolutely have better, but comparing her to Cuomo or any other Governor the last quarter century, she’s the most left we’ve really seen a Democrat. Better than Cuomo isn’t a high bar to meet for a Democrat, but she’s exceeded my expectations and we could do WAY worse than her too.
Nate Silver’s analysis isn’t as good as it once was imo but this Substack on Trump approvals I thought was pretty decent:
https://natesilver.substack.com/p/trump-approval-rating-30s-popularity-decline?r=2ikl7j&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
He's good at pure numbers analysis, and dogshit at absolutely anything outside of that (except poker, I guess).
Nate Silver never stopped using his "secret sauce". Which meant no-one could really replicate his methodology or test his results. In this one respect, I always had far more respect for the open-source analysis of Prof. Sam Wang and his Princeton Election Consortium.
I thought the Michigan Poll was interesting. Perry Johnson has spent a ton of money on TV advertising, and yet he is still behind John James. I saw the first ad this weekend for James here in the Detroit Market. The James ad features Trump giving James ringing endorsements filmed at several earlier Trump Rallies. I have seen no Democratic candidates ads yet at all.
I would love to see more polling comparing Benson to Republicans showing the after affects of No Kings Day 3.Did all that signage sway more undecideds?
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-03-31/supreme-court-lifts-state-bans-on-conversion-therapy-on-free-speech-grounds
This is absolutely unbelievable that the courts will allow parents to torture children with conversion therapy, because they're right wing religious zealots, but ban legitimate trans medical treatment.
We have to win the Senate, throw away the filibuster, and expand the court.
I believe this ruling against children's rights on free speech grounds opens up a bucket of worms on all types of "parental rights" based on free speech. A lot of these Christian zealots believe the parents have the right to beat children senseless short of killing them. This right wing free speech claim is a slippery slope. Would the same logic overturn child abuse laws?
Both of the Obama-appointed Justices sided with the conservatives, which is an absolute surprise and especially worrying if it's the beginning of a rightward shift by Sotomayor and Kagan. It's important to note that SCOTUS didn't directly strike down Colorado's conversion therapy ban, but sent the case to a lower court that would likely strike down the law.
They’re defending freedom of speech. I would have voted the same way.
Freedom of speech has limits when it directly threatens the health and well-being of innocent people. Hello, “can’t yell fire in a crowded theater”. This was not a free speech decision, this was a religious ideology, driven claim of free speech, but one that has harsh negative long lasting impacts on vulnerable people.
This has nothing to do with yelling fire in a crowded theater. It's like the "heckler's veto" analogy. People don't like what is being said--the verbal counseling--so they want to ban it.
Sure… Except a Heckler doesn’t hurt anybody, and conversion therapy does
The same argument could be made about trans counseling and abortion counseling. If you can ban one, you can ban another.
But remember, defending the rights of people is "woke" according to some commenters here.
Well, failing to defend people’s rights is "catatonic".
Speech versus medical treatment.
In an 8-1 vote, the Supreme Court holds that Colorado’s ban on “conversion therapy,” as applied to petitioner's talk therapy, violates the First Amendment because it constitutes viewpoint discrimination
Where do the rights and protection of the children come in. Prior to these types of laws, where children were forced to go through this conversation therapy, we had children committing suicide. That's why these laws were passed. I'm going to side with protecting children from zealot parents.
Well, then be prepared for bans on trans and abortion therapy among other things. I’ll side with the first amendment.
It did in this case.
Fraud should not have legal protection. Conversion therapy is a fraud.
The free speech grounds for this come across as really tenuous.
The claim from Gorsuch is "it censors speech based on viewpoint." If we're in a place where anything that is otherwise regulated can be called a "censorship" of a "viewpoint" then regulations will only exist for non-conservatives.
The same logic could apply to any regulation that touches on anything that is communicated in some way, shape, or form, and thus could be pretended to be a free speech issue.
Jackson's dissent is as long as Gorsuch's majority opinion and Kagan's concurrence combined. I love her so much.
I don't think it's as bad as it's being made out to be, SCOTUS just remanded the case back to the district court and directed it to be reconsidered in light of the Salazar opinion to not discriminate against speech.
Don't get me wrong, I still don't like the opinion. But it's not as bad as it could have been, and that could be the influence of Kagan/Sotomayor.
Nothing those 6 on SCROTUS do surprises me.
And also allowing abortion prohibition.
If this is true, meaning loyal R voters this year will either vote for Democrats as an F-you to their party or sit out the midterms, the 2026 midterms could be a tsunami.
https://newrepublic.com/post/208397/donald-trump-network-messages-voters-iran
The pro MAGA voters are PISSED at Trump's decision to invade Iran. And the cost of gas.
Another NC Poll:
https://x.com/ForwardCarolina/status/2038987821201916136
A second major poll just dropped this morning, and... well, maybe that one in the tweet below wasn't such an outlier after all.
Out today from
@CatawbaCollege
:
NORTH CAROLINA - U.S. SENATE:
🔵
@RoyCooperNC
: 47%
🔴
@WhatleyNC
: 31%
⚪️ Other/DK: 22%
NC - CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT:
🔵Democratic: 43%
🔴Republican: 38%
⚪️ Other/DK: 16%
NC - STATE SUPREME COURT:
🔵Democratic: 43%
🔴Republican: 36%
⚪️ Other/DK: 19%
TRUMP APPROVAL: (-13)
STEIN NET APPROVAL: (+22)
Support for U.S. military intervention in Iran: (-10)
Conducted by
@YouGov
, March 9-18, 2026. N=1000 North Carolina residents. MoE 3.58%.
Would like to see Anita Earls closer to 50% but even with the margin of error added it looks like Cooper will carry her over the line in November.
She's leading by 7 in that poll and can presumably lead herself over the line.
Best ever result despite being the most unpopular version of the party ever. Like I said before, voters don’t give a fuck what each party does or says, they’ll vote for them to stop whatever party is in power when they’re mad, regardless of what that opposite party looks like or promises.
This is exactly why I advocate the Democratic party moving left overall like the GOP moved far right, we don’t actually lose any voters, but we gain back our progressive/left base who haven’t come out for us at large scale numbers since Obama.
https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/2038958954521186726
GALLUP LEANED PARTY ID FOR 2026 Q1 NOW OUT:
2025 Q3: 48-41 DEM (+7 D)
2025 Q4: 48-40 DEM (+8 D)
2026 Q1: 49-39 DEM (+10 D)
This is the largest recorded party ID advantage DEMs have had in any quarter since Gallup started tracking it in Q1 2015. GOP has never fallen below 40!
If the general election today, there'd be a bigger blue wave than 2018's in national environment. Trump's approval + Gallup party ID is a couple points worse compared to this time in 2018 and by Eday 2018.
We are not supposed to debate Democratic presidential primaries, but I think it's clear from the 2020 election results that presidential candidates I supported would have lost. It's clear to me that voters don't give a fuck how horrible the Republicans are if they're mad at the Democrats. It's unclear to me the extent to which the reverse is true.
Polling is always a lagging indicator, now the horrific disapproval on issues is starting to creep into the overall disapproval numbers. Trump never broke below his 40% floor in his first term, now we’re seeing multiple polls with that happening.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2038967823112765661
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
📊 National Poll by YouGov/Economist
Approve: 35% (-3)
Disapprove: 58% (+2)
Trump's lowest approval in either term
——
Trump's net approval on key issues
🟤 Education: -14
🟤 Healthcare: -22
🔴 Iran: -30 (new low)
——
3/27-30 | 1,679 A
Democrats should dream bigger for November.
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/2038990917663600940
A steady fall into the abyss for Trump's net approval, as it falls into Death Valley. He's now at a term 2 low: -18 pts.
Big reason why: Independents. Trump's at -45 pts.
The worst for any prez at this point in term 2. Worse than Nixon (-36 pts) at the height of Watergate!
Needs to go MUCH lower. The lower the approval, the bigger the shellacking.
I couldn't read this comment and not think of Detective Rawls in The Wire saying to McNulty "the longer this goes on, the bigger the payback"
Good. Get it -50 for good measure. Crush Trumpism at last and salt the earth over it so we can begin the long, hard process of having other countries taking us half-seriously again
I would love for Trump's approval to tank so bad that NC regains a Democratic state trifecta after November, gerrymandering be damned.
Because there's a LOT that needs to be done that NC GOP has refused to do since 2011.
the reputational damage will never be reversed
Or if it is, it will take 30 years or more, IMO.
And more corrupt, much more destructive domestically, guilty of crimes of much more turpitude, and more unpredictable than Nixon, and incompetent, too, which Nixon emphatically was not.
He’s not going to endorse lol. Paxton vs Talarico incoming.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2038965855816466774
📊 TEXAS SENATE RUNOFF
🟥 Ken Paxton: 47%
🟥 John Cornyn: 42%
⬜ Not sure: 12%
"If Trump endorses Cornyn"
🟥 Paxton: 47%
🟥 Cornyn: 43%
——
10 out of 10 enthusiastic about voting
Paxton voters: 85%
Cornyn voters: 70%
——
• GQR for
@MajorityPAC
(Dem)
• 3/19-23 | 600 LV | ±4%
https://senatemajority.com/wp-content/uploads/SMP-GQR-Texas-Republican-Primary-Memo.pdf
GA-Gov: Late Esteves momentum?
https://x.com/abbyyturner_/status/2039005536859873618
Former GA state Sen. Jason Esteves has climbed to second place as the Dem GOV primary likely faces a runoff, according to a poll obtained exclusively by
@njhotline
- Bottoms: 32%
- Esteves: 14%
- Duncan: 12%
- Thurmond: 11%
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/731407/exclusive-georgia-gov-poll-shows-likely-runoff/?unlock=TWDL1A41H4YODYO2
He’s the only one running a great campaign here on the Democratic side. He has a ground game and only one on-air right now
How is he behind by 18 with a great campaign? I'll believe he's run a great campaign if he wins the primary.
Good, I like him a lot
Thurmond is in last place at 11% but that still puts him ten points ahead of Tony Thurmond, who is running for CA-Gov (and was at 1% in a recent poll).
CA-Gov - Sexual misconduct allegations against Eric Swalwell begin to surface:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWjgJEAETWI/?igsh=MTM2N2J1ZW96bHl4
This looks like complete bullshit to me. I'll believe it when I see a legitimate source, and not some social media bot
SCOWIS: Cash race.
https://x.com/jrrosswrites/status/2038963266248937777
'26 SCOWIS fundraising news:
2/3-3/23 @ChrisTaylorWI $2.1 million raised, including $700k transfer from @WisDems
@JudgeMariaLazar $474,395 raised, including $60k transfer from @WisGOP
1/2
@WisDems raised $2.7 million 1/1-3/23. Had $1.3 million cash after $700k transfer to @ChrisTaylorWI
WisGOP raised $239,491. Had $956,251 cash after $60k transfer to @JudgeMariaLazar
3 donors accounted for $230k of what WisGOP raised.
See more in today's AM Update.