I guess we were all too pessimistic regarding the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Predictions yesterday ranged from 53-47 to 59-41, and Taylor outperformed all of them, winning 60-40.
I haven't had time to crunch the municipality results yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be pretty crazy. This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy! In years past, far too much damage has been done by the Democratic Party and voters paying far too little attention to judicial elections – especially for state supreme courts. Those elections can have monumental consequences!
In Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country. I’m convinced we’ll see great things in NC elections!
The fact that we kept an incumbent state Supreme Court judge in an R-favorable year like 2024 is no small feat. Anderson deserves MASSIVE kudos for not only helping get Justice Allison Riggs over the line but also keep the sore loser (and his buddies on the SCONC) from stealing her seat.
November 2028 is when we will flip back control of that court -- hopefully by a 5-2 margin instead of 4-3.
Very good news for Francesca Hong in the governor's race, as Taylor was Hong's predecessor in the state assembly, and both are very progressive, meaning that any attempt to use an electability argument against Hong in the primary would be less effective.
It would be interesting to see a comparison to Obama 2008. Just glancing at the maps it looks like Taylor still underperformed Obama in the rural areas, though came much closer than any recent Dem, including Obama himself in 2012. However this was more than made up by gains in suburbs which have been trending our way generally.
⬆️"This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while."
I checked Ballotpedia for the last several WI Supreme Court elections - turnout last night (~1.5M) fell short of the two previous elections - ~1.8M (2024) and ~2.3M (2025). But the margin was way up.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
IMO, a 20 pt. win in a race that was not determinative about the balance of power on the WI Supreme Court is HUGE! So is the fact the GOP incumbent for NEXT year's race has already signaled she isn't running.
I'm in NC and I would so like to see a state Supreme Court race that didn't turn into a knuckle biter!
Unless the legislature moves the state Supreme Court races up to spring, them being in November in midterm and presidential years will almost always make them close.
Even in 2020 when Rs made gains in the SCONC and flipped the Court of Appeals, they only won by 2 points or less. Had Anderson been party chair during that time, I think the state Supreme Court would stayed in Democratic hands.
I predicted 59-41, and I have felt I was overestimating Democrats in basically every election post-2024. Somehow I keep underestimating us despite my seemingly lofty predictions. I think I predicted Spanberger +12, Sherrill +10, a narrow Jason Miyares win, and solid GA PSC wins, but not by anywhere near their 25-point margins. I thought Taylor Rehmet would get close, but no cigar. Now this.
Democrats could have a similar court makeup in North Carolina in 2.5 years. Provided that we send Justice Anita Earls back to the court in November, we only need to flip two of the three GOP held seats on November 7, 2028. Two of those three judges (Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr.) were also at the same luncheon sponsored by the convicted pedophile where wannabe SCONC justice Sarah Stevens was in attendance.
It's going to be hard to flip these seats in a presidential year, but not impossible (esp if JD Vance is the GOP presidential candidate). One former Court of Appeals judge, Chris Brook, is already raising funds to challenge Berger Jr. or Tamara Barringer in 2028.
In other Milwaukee suburbs, they won Brookfield, but Republicans won Franklin, which I believe simultaneously voted for Taylor. Not sure if either is a flip.
People of Wisconsin are you going to sue Tom Tiffany (Wisconsin-7) for NOT doing his job and abetting war crimes? Many billions per day for an illegal war with many war crimes. These billions will come out of your social services
Call 202-225-3121 ask for Massie, Rand Paul, Thom Tillis or ANTI-war GOP rep, Demand Privileged Motion to UNseat Johnson then vote on rep Larson's articles of impeachment
WI-03 was in the initial 12 seat Red to Blue from the DCCC: AZ-2, AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, MI-4, NC-11, PA-08, PA-10, TN-05, VA-1, VA-2, WI-03.
DCCC has a 44 seat in-play list. The initial 12 plus 32 more, of which WI-1 is one. Though this list has some D open seats and excludes some redistricting D flips in CA/UT. The +32: AK-AL, AZ-1, CA-22, CA-48, CO-5, CO-8, FL-7, FL-13, FL-15, FL-27, IA-2, KY-6, ME-2, MI-7, MI-10, MN-01, MO-2, MT-01, NC-3, NE-02, NJ-7, NJ-17, OH-7, OH-10, OH-15, PA-1, PA-7, SC-1, TX-15, TX-35, VA-5, WI-01.
Seperate list for D incumbents. Frontline. 20 on that. CA-13, CA-44, CA-47, CT-5, IN-1, MI-8, NC-1, NJ-9, NM-2, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-3, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13, OR-5, TX-28, TX-34, VA-7, WA-3.
Sorry for the length. I am no WI expert, but the other WI districts are all R +8 or R+11 by Cook CPVI. IDK how swingy they are (or are not). If things continue to go south for the GOP, I think more districts will be in play.
DCCC is already playing in 64. And some others will almost surely flip due to redistricting: UT-1, CA-1, CA-3, CA-9, CA-41 for us. Some for them as well.
Yes. You can check on votehub by precinct results, put in districts, and add in the counties they don’t have precinct level results. They are behind AP numbers a bit, but not going to change much.
3rd is a blowout larger than the statewide margin. 1st and 8th are comfortably ahead. 6th and 7th would be within several thousand votes, 2-3pt. Only behind in 5th.
Republicans are hitting the copium -- again -- after last night's election results. Instead of taking the Ls, they're blaming the conservative judicial candidate instead of Donald Trump.
After Adelita Grijalva won her special election in Arizona, Mike Johnson made her wait several weeks before taking her seat in Congress. After Clayton Fuller won his special election yesterday in Georgia, we can be sure that he will be seated immediately.
I'd like to see a larger pool of voters but not bad.
Moody can't just rely on the larger pool of R voters bailing her out since 9-10% of them are voting for Democrats in the special elections, so she has to work for it.
Good morning! I am also highly invested in the NCSC as a North Carolinian. However, I want to make a plug for two Georgia Supreme Court flip opportunities we have just next month! Please check out Dem-aligned Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin. We could not get a candidate for the third seat, sadly.
Maybe our amazing editors at the Downballot could do a front-page push for them to raise awareness at some point over the next month?
Doesn't matter. We should still have a big Dem turnout advantage in Georgia in the primaries next month if the previous primary states are any indication. We need to take advantage of that for these court races.
two special elex last night of interest to climate folk in particular.
Port Washington, in the northern Milwaukee suburbs, held a referendum that was effectively a referendum on a proposed data canter. The YES (anti-data center) side won, 66-34, bigger margin than Justice Taylor, which means that the city now has to ask for voter approval before approving data centers. Expect a lot of copycat referenda where possible.
And Arizona's Salt River Project board race went national, with Turning Point on one side and climate folk on the other. Voting here is tied to how much land you own. Long lines last night, results at some point today. SRP is a mini-public utility commission.
Elliot Morris’s state by state estimate of Trump’s approval rating had him underwater in LA.
Anyone know if Democrats will mount a serious challenge for the seat or if there is an independent candidacy that could make it interesting as in NE and MT?
She’s only one MP. Pre-Trudeau the Grits always had an unwieldy big tent and, besides, Carney himself is basically a Red Tory throwback who’d have been completely at home in Joe Clark’s PCs
Agreed, but she voted against the conversion therapy ban and had against Marijuana legalization. One of the things Justin Trudeau did as party leader which I supposed was purging anti-abortion and anti-LQBTQ MPs. I would prefer to keep it that way.
I guess we were all too pessimistic regarding the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Predictions yesterday ranged from 53-47 to 59-41, and Taylor outperformed all of them, winning 60-40.
I haven't had time to crunch the municipality results yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be pretty crazy. This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy! In years past, far too much damage has been done by the Democratic Party and voters paying far too little attention to judicial elections – especially for state supreme courts. Those elections can have monumental consequences!
Tell me about it! I'm in NC and I am so envious of what WI has managed to pull off the last several years!
In Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country. I’m convinced we’ll see great things in NC elections!
The fact that we kept an incumbent state Supreme Court judge in an R-favorable year like 2024 is no small feat. Anderson deserves MASSIVE kudos for not only helping get Justice Allison Riggs over the line but also keep the sore loser (and his buddies on the SCONC) from stealing her seat.
November 2028 is when we will flip back control of that court -- hopefully by a 5-2 margin instead of 4-3.
Very good news for Francesca Hong in the governor's race, as Taylor was Hong's predecessor in the state assembly, and both are very progressive, meaning that any attempt to use an electability argument against Hong in the primary would be less effective.
I fail to see the connection in these candidates' fortunes just because they represented the same district.
Agreed, but I think it's interesting, at least
It would be interesting to see a comparison to Obama 2008. Just glancing at the maps it looks like Taylor still underperformed Obama in the rural areas, though came much closer than any recent Dem, including Obama himself in 2012. However this was more than made up by gains in suburbs which have been trending our way generally.
Great idea! I'll see what I can do when I have more time.
⬆️"This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while."
I checked Ballotpedia for the last several WI Supreme Court elections - turnout last night (~1.5M) fell short of the two previous elections - ~1.8M (2024) and ~2.3M (2025). But the margin was way up.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
IMO, a 20 pt. win in a race that was not determinative about the balance of power on the WI Supreme Court is HUGE! So is the fact the GOP incumbent for NEXT year's race has already signaled she isn't running.
I'm in NC and I would so like to see a state Supreme Court race that didn't turn into a knuckle biter!
Unless the legislature moves the state Supreme Court races up to spring, them being in November in midterm and presidential years will almost always make them close.
Even in 2020 when Rs made gains in the SCONC and flipped the Court of Appeals, they only won by 2 points or less. Had Anderson been party chair during that time, I think the state Supreme Court would stayed in Democratic hands.
I predicted 59-41, and I have felt I was overestimating Democrats in basically every election post-2024. Somehow I keep underestimating us despite my seemingly lofty predictions. I think I predicted Spanberger +12, Sherrill +10, a narrow Jason Miyares win, and solid GA PSC wins, but not by anywhere near their 25-point margins. I thought Taylor Rehmet would get close, but no cigar. Now this.
I'm curious what your predictions are for NC Senate and state Supreme Court races.
Democrats could have a similar court makeup in North Carolina in 2.5 years. Provided that we send Justice Anita Earls back to the court in November, we only need to flip two of the three GOP held seats on November 7, 2028. Two of those three judges (Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr.) were also at the same luncheon sponsored by the convicted pedophile where wannabe SCONC justice Sarah Stevens was in attendance.
It's going to be hard to flip these seats in a presidential year, but not impossible (esp if JD Vance is the GOP presidential candidate). One former Court of Appeals judge, Chris Brook, is already raising funds to challenge Berger Jr. or Tamara Barringer in 2028.
https://x.com/JudgeChrisBrook/status/2031384006265049555
I'm in Charlotte, and we have been running canvasses for Judge Earls since January.
I(n addition, the NCDP has also launched an anytime canvassing program:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/870793/
Link to quick start guide: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17PnnPILBKrU4rkHlLUuyOrN4uIF9ON5jQzZl2ux5fqg/edit?tab=t.0
Big win in the Badger state. Big overperformance in MTG's district.
On to Hungary & VA redistricting.
I think Dems flipping the Waukesha Mayor's race also merits mention.
In other Milwaukee suburbs, they won Brookfield, but Republicans won Franklin, which I believe simultaneously voted for Taylor. Not sure if either is a flip.
Dems won Brookfield? That's about as notable as Waukesha's mayoralty flipping! Brookfield was Trump +5 in 2024.
Edit: it seems the longtime Republican mayor of Brookfield won reelection. Not a flip.
I must have mixed up the results - what happened in Franklin?
The River Falls mayorship also flipped from R to D, if I recall correctly.
Also, I believe that Jefferson Davis, the controversial and racist Menominee Falls school board member, was voted out of office.
I guess that Menomonee Falls school board member was just living up to his name.
People of Wisconsin are you going to sue Tom Tiffany (Wisconsin-7) for NOT doing his job and abetting war crimes? Many billions per day for an illegal war with many war crimes. These billions will come out of your social services
Call 202-225-3121 ask for Massie, Rand Paul, Thom Tillis or ANTI-war GOP rep, Demand Privileged Motion to UNseat Johnson then vote on rep Larson's articles of impeachment
https://americancitizen2025.substack.com/p/call-202-225-3121-ask-for-massie
Contact your democratic Attorney Generals online and send a message like this to CA, NY, NJ or ILL. We sue congressmen for abetting war crimes
https://americancitizen2025.substack.com/p/contact-your-democratic-attorney
Not a topic of discussion here, or at least be more specific
From Scott MacFarlane's Daily Editorial Notes:
A Wisconsin state Democratic party spokesman shared this nugget from his analysis: “12 counties that went red in 2025’s election have swung blue.”
That Substack gives a chart with a breakdown of the counties. Note the shift in rural counties.
I'm not a subscriber but link: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193562504
See also, G. Elliott Morris's Substack post from late last night where he goes over the numbers.
(Link: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07-trump-approval-gop-house-senate-seats)
oooo! this this is a fun scandal: https://qns.com/2026/04/hevesi-criminal-complaint-opponent-rinaldi/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=politicsny-newsletter&utm_term=PoliticsNY%20Political%20Edge
I thought this was funny: if you remove every county Harris won in Wisconsin, Taylor still wins. If my math is right, she wins 482,118 - 464,169.
https://x.com/BruneElections/status/2041728362159202652
It also looks like Taylor won every congressional district except for WI-05, although I still need to verify that.
The 3rd is in play, the 1st was considered a reach. Do you think the 6th, 7th and 8th could be targeted, too?
WI-03 was in the initial 12 seat Red to Blue from the DCCC: AZ-2, AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, MI-4, NC-11, PA-08, PA-10, TN-05, VA-1, VA-2, WI-03.
DCCC has a 44 seat in-play list. The initial 12 plus 32 more, of which WI-1 is one. Though this list has some D open seats and excludes some redistricting D flips in CA/UT. The +32: AK-AL, AZ-1, CA-22, CA-48, CO-5, CO-8, FL-7, FL-13, FL-15, FL-27, IA-2, KY-6, ME-2, MI-7, MI-10, MN-01, MO-2, MT-01, NC-3, NE-02, NJ-7, NJ-17, OH-7, OH-10, OH-15, PA-1, PA-7, SC-1, TX-15, TX-35, VA-5, WI-01.
Seperate list for D incumbents. Frontline. 20 on that. CA-13, CA-44, CA-47, CT-5, IN-1, MI-8, NC-1, NJ-9, NM-2, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-3, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13, OR-5, TX-28, TX-34, VA-7, WA-3.
Sorry for the length. I am no WI expert, but the other WI districts are all R +8 or R+11 by Cook CPVI. IDK how swingy they are (or are not). If things continue to go south for the GOP, I think more districts will be in play.
DCCC is already playing in 64. And some others will almost surely flip due to redistricting: UT-1, CA-1, CA-3, CA-9, CA-41 for us. Some for them as well.
Yes. You can check on votehub by precinct results, put in districts, and add in the counties they don’t have precinct level results. They are behind AP numbers a bit, but not going to change much.
3rd is a blowout larger than the statewide margin. 1st and 8th are comfortably ahead. 6th and 7th would be within several thousand votes, 2-3pt. Only behind in 5th.
This was a landslide victory by virtually every measure and then some.
Republicans are hitting the copium -- again -- after last night's election results. Instead of taking the Ls, they're blaming the conservative judicial candidate instead of Donald Trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/08/democrats-gains-wisconsin-georgia-elections-trump-00863404
https://archive.ph/5e7Kc
If the Congressional win in GA is all they can brag about, then they're headed into a massacre in November.
After Adelita Grijalva won her special election in Arizona, Mike Johnson made her wait several weeks before taking her seat in Congress. After Clayton Fuller won his special election yesterday in Georgia, we can be sure that he will be seated immediately.
Matt Van Epps was sworn in the day after he won his race. We can expect a Rep. Fuller today or tomorrow.
FL Sen: PPP poll for Vindman: Moody 43%-Vindman 40%. (574 RVs; 4/2-3).
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/789481-alex-vindman-internal-poll-shows-him-within-striking-distance-of-ashley-moody/
I’d put Florida 7th or 8th on the list of possible flips.
Why the 8th?
Might have Nebraska ahead. If you consider that a flip.
Oh. I misread your initial comment as discussing districts to flip, not states
How would you rank FL, MT, and NE?
I agree. Also agree re NE. TX and IA are 5-6. Still, at worst, Vindman seems able to force the R's to spend in FL.
I'd like to see a larger pool of voters but not bad.
Moody can't just rely on the larger pool of R voters bailing her out since 9-10% of them are voting for Democrats in the special elections, so she has to work for it.
Good morning! I am also highly invested in the NCSC as a North Carolinian. However, I want to make a plug for two Georgia Supreme Court flip opportunities we have just next month! Please check out Dem-aligned Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin. We could not get a candidate for the third seat, sadly.
Maybe our amazing editors at the Downballot could do a front-page push for them to raise awareness at some point over the next month?
Apparently Jason Carter endorsed one of the Republican justices (Bethel)? Gross.
Doesn't matter. We should still have a big Dem turnout advantage in Georgia in the primaries next month if the previous primary states are any indication. We need to take advantage of that for these court races.
two special elex last night of interest to climate folk in particular.
Port Washington, in the northern Milwaukee suburbs, held a referendum that was effectively a referendum on a proposed data canter. The YES (anti-data center) side won, 66-34, bigger margin than Justice Taylor, which means that the city now has to ask for voter approval before approving data centers. Expect a lot of copycat referenda where possible.
And Arizona's Salt River Project board race went national, with Turning Point on one side and climate folk on the other. Voting here is tied to how much land you own. Long lines last night, results at some point today. SRP is a mini-public utility commission.
Elliot Morris’s state by state estimate of Trump’s approval rating had him underwater in LA.
Anyone know if Democrats will mount a serious challenge for the seat or if there is an independent candidacy that could make it interesting as in NE and MT?
There are three Democratic candidates running in the primary: Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis.
Plus Jamie LaBranche, a former GOP candidate who filed as a write-in candidate for the general.
I’m not familiar enough with LA politics to know whether any of those candidates are a serious threat.
They aren't, but Davis is the most prominent.
News from the North: sir, another MP just crossed the floor. I don't know how I feel about this one, she was on the right of the Conservatives caucus and has some bad views on social issues previously, I hope she will repent of them. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-marilyn-gladu-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7156167
She’s only one MP. Pre-Trudeau the Grits always had an unwieldy big tent and, besides, Carney himself is basically a Red Tory throwback who’d have been completely at home in Joe Clark’s PCs
Agreed, but she voted against the conversion therapy ban and had against Marijuana legalization. One of the things Justin Trudeau did as party leader which I supposed was purging anti-abortion and anti-LQBTQ MPs. I would prefer to keep it that way.
Canada: Another floor crosser
The Liberals have picked up another Conservative floor-crosser, bringing them one seat closer to a majority government.
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu announced on Wednesday she is joining the government benches.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-marilyn-gladu-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7156167