I guess we were all too pessimistic regarding the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Predictions yesterday ranged from 53-47 to 59-41, and Taylor outperformed all of them, winning 60-40.
I haven't had time to crunch the municipality results yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be pretty crazy. This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy! In years past, far too much damage has been done by the Democratic Party and voters paying far too little attention to judicial elections – especially for state supreme courts. Those elections can have monumental consequences!
In Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country. I’m convinced we’ll see great things in the coming NC elections!
The fact that we kept an incumbent state Supreme Court judge in an R-favorable year like 2024 is no small feat. Anderson deserves MASSIVE kudos for not only helping get Justice Allison Riggs over the line but also keep the sore loser (and his buddies on the SCONC) from stealing her seat.
November 2028 is when we will flip back control of that court -- hopefully to a 5-2 margin instead of 4-3.
For the sake of the survival of American democracy in any remotely recognizable form, I certainly hope 2028 is a Democratic year. If it isn't, the Republicans have a good chance of winning the NC Supreme Court race that year.
The thing is that we very likely have to take out the two NC SC Republican incumbents in 2028 in order to get control of the court any time soon. We blow one of those races in 2028 and the opportunity won’t come up again for a while given that 2030 is likely to be a midterm of a Dem President.
The biggest issue in the past has been down ballot fall off for Democratic voters. Far more voters vote in the top of the ticket state race (e.g., governor and/or US Senator) than for Judicial elections.
I guess the silver lining in the 6-mo fight against Griffith and his buddies was that it brought the state Supreme Court to the attention of a lot of voters. And both Newby and Berger are up for reelection in 2028.
⬆️"North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country."
I agree 💯percent. I have had the opportunity to hear her several times in person and I always try my best to attend any Zoom meetings that feature her - I'm a monthly donor to the NCDP, and they have frequent donor calls that almost always feature her.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy!
When I first read this all I could think was the announcer on the south park episode where the princess was getting married that would say, This is a good day for Canada and therefor the world.
Very good news for Francesca Hong in the governor's race, as Taylor was Hong's predecessor in the state assembly, and both are very progressive, meaning that any attempt to use an electability argument against Hong in the primary would be less effective.
Aaron seems to be saying that candidates of a similar mold can win statewide. This is perhaps the left-leaning state assembly seat in Wisconsin; Green Party candidates for president often carry 15-20 percent of the vote in parts of it and have represented the overlapping city council and county board seats over the years.
Taylor has been on the appeals court bench for 6 years prior to running for the Supreme Court, and was the only candidate running. Republicans also clearly gave up on this race long before it was over.
Hong is in a crowded primary as an Assemblywoman, and state Republicans will definitely be fighting tooth and nail to try and regain power, as much as they can. The situations are just not analagous.
It would be interesting to see a comparison to Obama 2008. Just glancing at the maps it looks like Taylor still underperformed Obama in the rural areas, though came much closer than any recent Dem, including Obama himself in 2012. However this was more than made up by gains in suburbs which have been trending our way generally.
Some rural areas like the south Mississippi Valley closely resembled 2012 if not quite 2008 but others north of there appear more permanently realigned in the Trump era (Pepin and Buffalo in the west, Adams in the central, Lincoln and Forest in the northeast). As for population centers, interesting that Ozaukee County was almost as blue as Racine County....and Outagamie County was bluer than Brown County.
Those areas that you say are "permanently realigned" actually saw since of the biggest swings of the night, especially if you're comparing from 2025, rather than 2024. Just because it didn't flip all the way to blue doesn't mean change isn't afoot.
⬆️"This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while."
I checked Ballotpedia for the last several WI Supreme Court elections - turnout last night (~1.5M) fell short of the two previous elections - ~1.8M (2024) and ~2.3M (2025). But the margin was way up.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
IMO, a 20 pt. win in a race that was not determinative about the balance of power on the WI Supreme Court is HUGE! So is the fact the GOP incumbent for NEXT year's race has already signaled she isn't running.
I'm in NC and I would so like to see a state Supreme Court race that didn't turn into a knuckle biter!
Unless the legislature moves the state Supreme Court races up to spring, them being in November in midterm and presidential years will almost always make them close.
Even in 2020 when Rs made gains in the SCONC and flipped the Court of Appeals, they only won by 2 points or less. Had Anderson been party chair during that time, I think the state Supreme Court would stayed in Democratic hands.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
Yes and no.
Yes: In public they have to say it and believe it or their base and god cadet bonespurs will come after them.
No: In private they know that this means they are screwed come november.
I predicted 59-41, and I have felt I was overestimating Democrats in basically every election post-2024. Somehow I keep underestimating us despite my seemingly lofty predictions. I think I predicted Spanberger +12, Sherrill +10, a narrow Jason Miyares win, and solid GA PSC wins, but not by anywhere near their 25-point margins. I thought Taylor Rehmet would get close, but no cigar. Now this.
Democrats could have a similar court makeup in North Carolina in 2.5 years. Provided that we send Justice Anita Earls back to the court in November, we only need to flip two of the three GOP held seats on November 7, 2028. Two of those three judges (Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr.) were also at the same luncheon sponsored by the convicted pedophile where wannabe SCONC justice Sarah Stevens was in attendance.
It's going to be hard to flip these seats in a presidential year, but not impossible (esp if JD Vance is the GOP presidential candidate). One former Court of Appeals judge, Chris Brook, is already raising funds to challenge Berger Jr. or Tamara Barringer in 2028.
In other Milwaukee suburbs, they won Brookfield, but Republicans won Franklin, which I believe simultaneously voted for Taylor. Not sure if either is a flip.
WI-03 was in the initial 12 seat Red to Blue from the DCCC: AZ-2, AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, MI-4, NC-11, PA-08, PA-10, TN-05, VA-1, VA-2, WI-03.
DCCC has a 44 seat in-play list. The initial 12 plus 32 more, of which WI-1 is one. Though this list has some D open seats and excludes some redistricting D flips in CA/UT. The +32: AK-AL, AZ-1, CA-22, CA-48, CO-5, CO-8, FL-7, FL-13, FL-15, FL-27, IA-2, KY-6, ME-2, MI-7, MI-10, MN-01, MO-2, MT-01, NC-3, NE-02, NJ-7, NJ-17, OH-7, OH-10, OH-15, PA-1, PA-7, SC-1, TX-15, TX-35, VA-5, WI-01.
Seperate list for D incumbents. Frontline. 20 on that. CA-13, CA-44, CA-47, CT-5, IN-1, MI-8, NC-1, NJ-9, NM-2, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-3, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13, OR-5, TX-28, TX-34, VA-7, WA-3.
Sorry for the length. I am no WI expert, but the other WI districts are all R +8 or R+11 by Cook CPVI. IDK how swingy they are (or are not). If things continue to go south for the GOP, I think more districts will be in play.
DCCC is already playing in 64. And some others will almost surely flip due to redistricting: UT-1, CA-1, CA-3, CA-9, CA-41 for us. Some for them as well.
Probably not, the dynamics of state supreme court races in Wisconsin favor Democrats, the large Democratic win in 2020 did not lead to a Biden landslide for example.
Yes. You can check on votehub by precinct results, put in districts, and add in the counties they don’t have precinct level results. They are behind AP numbers a bit, but not going to change much.
3rd is a blowout larger than the statewide margin. 1st and 8th are comfortably ahead. 6th and 7th would be within several thousand votes, 2-3pt. Only behind in 5th.
Republicans are hitting the copium -- again -- after last night's election results. Instead of taking the Ls, they're blaming the conservative judicial candidate instead of Donald Trump.
"It's a wow moment in Wisconsin politics" said a former Republican strategist. Not a WOW moment, but the political change in the state is making some impact even in that region.
That Georgia GOP party chair is going to eat his words in the fall when Ossoff wins re-election and Dems flip control of the legislature. His dismissive attitude that "Dems thought this [the Congressional race] was their Super Bowl" is copium.
I'm mostly with you there, but Georgia Dems could at minimum temper what would be a great night in November if they nominate Keisha Lance Bottoms for the governor's race.
After Adelita Grijalva won her special election in Arizona, Mike Johnson made her wait several weeks before taking her seat in Congress. After Clayton Fuller won his special election yesterday in Georgia, we can be sure that he will be seated immediately.
I think we’ll win the first 6 unless things get better for the Republicans between now and the election and 7-10 are also currently in play. 11-14 could flip in a nightmare scenario for Republicans if Trump is dipping into approval in the 20s by November but probably won’t be competitive.
I disagree. I think both Turek and Wahls are strong candidates, perhaps even better suited for their states than Talarico; they just haven't gotten as much national media attention as Talarico.
On the Republican side, Paxton is sadly liked better by Texas Republicans than we like to admit and conceivably could win. Meanwhile, Hinson is a bit of a paper tiger--milquetoast and ill suited for the moment, although she obviously could win, too.
I think we have good candidates in both states. In my opinion the gap between Hinson and Paxton/Cornyn is yawning. Hinson has shown electoral strength. Paxton has not. Cornyn has, but the MAGA base is not happy with him in a way that makes working with historical data less reliable.
It was absolutely in play last time, we only lost it by 6.7 points. We came closer to holding it than we did to holding Montana or flipping Texas. If we think we can flip Texas this year, Nebraska is absolutely at least on the board as a possibility.
does "in play" mean the Dem has a chance at winning? Because true, that is not likely in NE, but the independent Osborn has a much better shot than the Democrat. I would argue its in play.
I would put Texas before Alaska. I am not so sure that it switches.
I am not sold on 9, 11, 12, and 14. I don’t see those southern states switching.
I don’t know which of Missouri, South and North Dakota have elections. I know that they are not on anyone’s radar. However, if the farmers get angry enough at Trump, I wonder if any one f those could switch. It wasn’t too long ago that we had democratic senators from there.
I'd like to see a larger pool of voters but not bad.
Moody can't just rely on the larger pool of R voters bailing her out since 9-10% of them are voting for Democrats in the special elections, so she has to work for it.
The swings we've seen so far won't produce a statewide winner in Florida but I think we'll see gains maybe a couple congressional seats, unless republicans gerrymander the hell out of the already gerrymandered seats.
I hope Republicans in the legislature see these special elections and decide to not join the latest round of the redistricting wars. As Trump learned sometimes regarding Iran sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
Good morning! I am also highly invested in the NCSC as a North Carolinian. However, I want to make a plug for two Georgia Supreme Court flip opportunities we have just next month! Please check out Dem-aligned Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin. We could not get a candidate for the third seat, sadly.
Maybe our amazing editors at the Downballot could do a front-page push for them to raise awareness at some point over the next month?
Doesn't matter. We should still have a big Dem turnout advantage in Georgia in the primaries next month if the previous primary states are any indication. We need to take advantage of that for these court races.
two special elex last night of interest to climate folk in particular.
Port Washington, in the northern Milwaukee suburbs, held a referendum that was effectively a referendum on a proposed data canter. The YES (anti-data center) side won, 66-34, bigger margin than Justice Taylor, which means that the city now has to ask for voter approval before approving data centers. Expect a lot of copycat referenda where possible.
And Arizona's Salt River Project board race went national, with Turning Point on one side and climate folk on the other. Voting here is tied to how much land you own. Long lines last night, results at some point today. SRP is a mini-public utility commission.
This is one area where i think dems could get a foothold where nothing else has worked. Here in Texas i think it would be very wise for Gina Hinojosa to hammer republicans for allowing so many data center to pop up, they are not very popular.
Elliot Morris’s state by state estimate of Trump’s approval rating had him underwater in LA.
Anyone know if Democrats will mount a serious challenge for the seat or if there is an independent candidacy that could make it interesting as in NE and MT?
Even in the most optimistic scenarios I doubt that we’d win Louisiana - even if we saw a shift from 2024 on the level of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election across the country that still wouldn’t flip Louisiana - but we absolutely should have a stronger candidate there.
The filing deadline was in February, and despite expressing interest, former Gov. John Bel Edwards declined. The best-case scenario is that Bill Cassidy wins re-nomination, and even then, he's still quite conservative.
Elliot Morris has Trump’s approval rating in Louisana at 45% which is lower than OH and slightly lower than long shots in FL, SC, MT, & NE. Trump’s approval rating in November may be lower than today if only because gas prices seem likely to be elevated all summer.
But actually I think the ideal would be running an independent candidate who is known for excellence outside of politics and runs as a reforming, pragmatic outsider. What about Reece Witherspoon?
Could just be polling error? Could be that Cassidy gave LA Republicans permission to break from Trump? Could be that familiarity with corruption makes them more suspicious of conmen?
Some of the best off year and special election results have been in GA and TX. Maybe the south is shifting more than the rest of the country by a few points?
I doubt it is but, if it is, I suspect it's due to LA's large African American population, plus deterioration in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge suburbs.
It's generally better to look at generic ballot rather than approval (although they are related) for House and Senate races, and while the generic ballot lead is favorable (average of Democrats +5), that isn't going flip anything redder than light red.
She’s only one MP. Pre-Trudeau the Grits always had an unwieldy big tent and, besides, Carney himself is basically a Red Tory throwback who’d have been completely at home in Joe Clark’s PCs
Agreed, but she voted against the conversion therapy ban and had against Marijuana legalization. One of the things Justin Trudeau did as party leader which I supposed was purging anti-abortion and anti-LQBTQ MPs. I would prefer to keep it that way.
Carney has that same magic that Emmanuel Macron did during the latter's first term as French President when it looked like the old parties on the center right and center left in France would be swept away by Macron's centrist movement.
Beyond the fact that the contrast to the Shitshow in Washington helps enormously, he’s aided by a one-two of A) the opposition leader being super unpopular and B) being able to deftly thread the needle to doing popular things from the Trudeau era while having ejected, especially stylistically, what made Trudeau so despised by the end
The best way I would put it is he does not come across as a milquetoast "limousine liberal" the way Trudeau fairly or unfairly did. He is seen as a much more serious technocrat, owing to his time as the head of two central banks and commands a kind of respect Trudeau never did. This is demonstrated by the floor crossings.
There's chatter that Pierre Poilievre is not well liked among his caucus colleagues especially with his tight grip control over Conservative messaging that results in backbencher MPs constantly having to read off partisan attacks issued by Poilievre's office during question period when they as backbenchers could be asking questions related to their constituents and leave the attacks to the frontbench.
Piggybacking more off the Elliott Morris post, we obviously already have on our watchlists all the Repubs in districts that Trump won with an margin under 10pts. These are all the members in districts that Trump over 10pts where his RV approval rating is now over 10pts.
I'm pleasantly surprised by NY-01. Trump is kind of made for Long Island politics, so although it's swingy, I wouldn't have that he'd be that underwater there. Hopefully we can put it in play.
Not a topic of discussion here, or at least be more specific
I guess we were all too pessimistic regarding the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Predictions yesterday ranged from 53-47 to 59-41, and Taylor outperformed all of them, winning 60-40.
I haven't had time to crunch the municipality results yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be pretty crazy. This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy! In years past, far too much damage has been done by the Democratic Party and voters paying far too little attention to judicial elections – especially for state supreme courts. Those elections can have monumental consequences!
Tell me about it! I'm in NC and I am so envious of what WI has managed to pull off the last several years!
In Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country. I’m convinced we’ll see great things in the coming NC elections!
The fact that we kept an incumbent state Supreme Court judge in an R-favorable year like 2024 is no small feat. Anderson deserves MASSIVE kudos for not only helping get Justice Allison Riggs over the line but also keep the sore loser (and his buddies on the SCONC) from stealing her seat.
November 2028 is when we will flip back control of that court -- hopefully to a 5-2 margin instead of 4-3.
For the sake of the survival of American democracy in any remotely recognizable form, I certainly hope 2028 is a Democratic year. If it isn't, the Republicans have a good chance of winning the NC Supreme Court race that year.
The thing is that we very likely have to take out the two NC SC Republican incumbents in 2028 in order to get control of the court any time soon. We blow one of those races in 2028 and the opportunity won’t come up again for a while given that 2030 is likely to be a midterm of a Dem President.
The biggest issue in the past has been down ballot fall off for Democratic voters. Far more voters vote in the top of the ticket state race (e.g., governor and/or US Senator) than for Judicial elections.
I guess the silver lining in the 6-mo fight against Griffith and his buddies was that it brought the state Supreme Court to the attention of a lot of voters. And both Newby and Berger are up for reelection in 2028.
⬆️"North Carolina Democrats have one of the best and most dynamic state party chairs in the country."
I agree 💯percent. I have had the opportunity to hear her several times in person and I always try my best to attend any Zoom meetings that feature her - I'm a monthly donor to the NCDP, and they have frequent donor calls that almost always feature her.
This is great news for Wisconsin, and great news for American democracy!
When I first read this all I could think was the announcer on the south park episode where the princess was getting married that would say, This is a good day for Canada and therefor the world.
Very good news for Francesca Hong in the governor's race, as Taylor was Hong's predecessor in the state assembly, and both are very progressive, meaning that any attempt to use an electability argument against Hong in the primary would be less effective.
I fail to see the connection in these candidates' fortunes just because they represented the same district.
Agreed, but I think it's interesting, at least
Aaron seems to be saying that candidates of a similar mold can win statewide. This is perhaps the left-leaning state assembly seat in Wisconsin; Green Party candidates for president often carry 15-20 percent of the vote in parts of it and have represented the overlapping city council and county board seats over the years.
Taylor has been on the appeals court bench for 6 years prior to running for the Supreme Court, and was the only candidate running. Republicans also clearly gave up on this race long before it was over.
Hong is in a crowded primary as an Assemblywoman, and state Republicans will definitely be fighting tooth and nail to try and regain power, as much as they can. The situations are just not analagous.
It would be interesting to see a comparison to Obama 2008. Just glancing at the maps it looks like Taylor still underperformed Obama in the rural areas, though came much closer than any recent Dem, including Obama himself in 2012. However this was more than made up by gains in suburbs which have been trending our way generally.
Great idea! I'll see what I can do when I have more time.
Some rural areas like the south Mississippi Valley closely resembled 2012 if not quite 2008 but others north of there appear more permanently realigned in the Trump era (Pepin and Buffalo in the west, Adams in the central, Lincoln and Forest in the northeast). As for population centers, interesting that Ozaukee County was almost as blue as Racine County....and Outagamie County was bluer than Brown County.
Those areas that you say are "permanently realigned" actually saw since of the biggest swings of the night, especially if you're comparing from 2025, rather than 2024. Just because it didn't flip all the way to blue doesn't mean change isn't afoot.
⬆️"This is the biggest liberal/Democratic victory in Wisconsin in quite a while."
I checked Ballotpedia for the last several WI Supreme Court elections - turnout last night (~1.5M) fell short of the two previous elections - ~1.8M (2024) and ~2.3M (2025). But the margin was way up.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
IMO, a 20 pt. win in a race that was not determinative about the balance of power on the WI Supreme Court is HUGE! So is the fact the GOP incumbent for NEXT year's race has already signaled she isn't running.
I'm in NC and I would so like to see a state Supreme Court race that didn't turn into a knuckle biter!
Unless the legislature moves the state Supreme Court races up to spring, them being in November in midterm and presidential years will almost always make them close.
Even in 2020 when Rs made gains in the SCONC and flipped the Court of Appeals, they only won by 2 points or less. Had Anderson been party chair during that time, I think the state Supreme Court would stayed in Democratic hands.
Last night, when I googled the results before I went to bed, there were several quotes from GOP operatives trying to minimize the win and suggested it said little about the results in the upcoming November races. Do those guys seriously believe that?
Yes and no.
Yes: In public they have to say it and believe it or their base and god cadet bonespurs will come after them.
No: In private they know that this means they are screwed come november.
I predicted 59-41, and I have felt I was overestimating Democrats in basically every election post-2024. Somehow I keep underestimating us despite my seemingly lofty predictions. I think I predicted Spanberger +12, Sherrill +10, a narrow Jason Miyares win, and solid GA PSC wins, but not by anywhere near their 25-point margins. I thought Taylor Rehmet would get close, but no cigar. Now this.
I'm curious what your predictions are for NC Senate and state Supreme Court races.
Cooper +10, Earls +7.
Wow, really?
Yes. Low key that might be underestimating the margins too at this point.
20 years. Herb Kohl managed a full sweep of every county in his 2006 Senate reelection bid
Democrats could have a similar court makeup in North Carolina in 2.5 years. Provided that we send Justice Anita Earls back to the court in November, we only need to flip two of the three GOP held seats on November 7, 2028. Two of those three judges (Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr.) were also at the same luncheon sponsored by the convicted pedophile where wannabe SCONC justice Sarah Stevens was in attendance.
It's going to be hard to flip these seats in a presidential year, but not impossible (esp if JD Vance is the GOP presidential candidate). One former Court of Appeals judge, Chris Brook, is already raising funds to challenge Berger Jr. or Tamara Barringer in 2028.
https://x.com/JudgeChrisBrook/status/2031384006265049555
I'm in Charlotte, and we have been running canvasses for Justice Earls since January.
In addition, the NCDP has also launched an anytime canvassing program:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/870793/
Link to quick start guide: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17PnnPILBKrU4rkHlLUuyOrN4uIF9ON5jQzZl2ux5fqg/edit?tab=t.0
Big win in the Badger state. Big overperformance in MTG's district.
On to Hungary & VA redistricting.
I think Dems flipping the Waukesha Mayor's race also merits mention.
In other Milwaukee suburbs, they won Brookfield, but Republicans won Franklin, which I believe simultaneously voted for Taylor. Not sure if either is a flip.
Dems won Brookfield? That's about as notable as Waukesha's mayoralty flipping! Brookfield was Trump +5 in 2024.
Edit: it seems the longtime Republican mayor of Brookfield won reelection. Not a flip.
I must have mixed up the results - what happened in Franklin?
Franklin is more conservative than Brookfield and the city of Waukesha.
The River Falls mayorship also flipped from R to D, if I recall correctly.
Also, I believe that Jefferson Davis, the controversial and racist Menominee Falls school board member, was voted out of office.
I guess that Menomonee Falls school board member was just living up to his name.
From Scott MacFarlane's Daily Editorial Notes:
A Wisconsin state Democratic party spokesman shared this nugget from his analysis: “12 counties that went red in 2025’s election have swung blue.”
That Substack gives a chart with a breakdown of the counties. Note the shift in rural counties.
I'm not a subscriber but link: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193562504
See also, G. Elliott Morris's Substack post from late last night where he goes over the numbers.
(Link: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07-trump-approval-gop-house-senate-seats)
I thought this was funny: if you remove every county Harris won in Wisconsin, Taylor still wins. If my math is right, she wins 482,118 - 464,169.
https://x.com/BruneElections/status/2041728362159202652
It also looks like Taylor won every congressional district except for WI-05, although I still need to verify that.
The 3rd is in play, the 1st was considered a reach. Do you think the 6th, 7th and 8th could be targeted, too?
WI-03 was in the initial 12 seat Red to Blue from the DCCC: AZ-2, AZ-6, IA-1, IA-3, MI-4, NC-11, PA-08, PA-10, TN-05, VA-1, VA-2, WI-03.
DCCC has a 44 seat in-play list. The initial 12 plus 32 more, of which WI-1 is one. Though this list has some D open seats and excludes some redistricting D flips in CA/UT. The +32: AK-AL, AZ-1, CA-22, CA-48, CO-5, CO-8, FL-7, FL-13, FL-15, FL-27, IA-2, KY-6, ME-2, MI-7, MI-10, MN-01, MO-2, MT-01, NC-3, NE-02, NJ-7, NJ-17, OH-7, OH-10, OH-15, PA-1, PA-7, SC-1, TX-15, TX-35, VA-5, WI-01.
Seperate list for D incumbents. Frontline. 20 on that. CA-13, CA-44, CA-47, CT-5, IN-1, MI-8, NC-1, NJ-9, NM-2, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-3, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13, OR-5, TX-28, TX-34, VA-7, WA-3.
Sorry for the length. I am no WI expert, but the other WI districts are all R +8 or R+11 by Cook CPVI. IDK how swingy they are (or are not). If things continue to go south for the GOP, I think more districts will be in play.
DCCC is already playing in 64. And some others will almost surely flip due to redistricting: UT-1, CA-1, CA-3, CA-9, CA-41 for us. Some for them as well.
Probably not, the dynamics of state supreme court races in Wisconsin favor Democrats, the large Democratic win in 2020 did not lead to a Biden landslide for example.
Yes. You can check on votehub by precinct results, put in districts, and add in the counties they don’t have precinct level results. They are behind AP numbers a bit, but not going to change much.
3rd is a blowout larger than the statewide margin. 1st and 8th are comfortably ahead. 6th and 7th would be within several thousand votes, 2-3pt. Only behind in 5th.
This was a landslide victory by virtually every measure and then some.
Republicans are hitting the copium -- again -- after last night's election results. Instead of taking the Ls, they're blaming the conservative judicial candidate instead of Donald Trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/08/democrats-gains-wisconsin-georgia-elections-trump-00863404
https://archive.ph/5e7Kc
If the Congressional win in GA is all they can brag about, then they're headed into a massacre in November.
"It's a wow moment in Wisconsin politics" said a former Republican strategist. Not a WOW moment, but the political change in the state is making some impact even in that region.
Absolutely.
That Georgia GOP party chair is going to eat his words in the fall when Ossoff wins re-election and Dems flip control of the legislature. His dismissive attitude that "Dems thought this [the Congressional race] was their Super Bowl" is copium.
I'm mostly with you there, but Georgia Dems could at minimum temper what would be a great night in November if they nominate Keisha Lance Bottoms for the governor's race.
Republican admits their own state Supreme Court hopeful gave voters 'no reason to show up'
https://www.rawstory.com/wisconsin-election-2676666250/
Wisconsin judicial race spotlights state GOP’s struggles
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5815729-wisconsin-republicans-state-supreme-court-race/
It's always, always, ALWAYS a woman's fault.
After Adelita Grijalva won her special election in Arizona, Mike Johnson made her wait several weeks before taking her seat in Congress. After Clayton Fuller won his special election yesterday in Georgia, we can be sure that he will be seated immediately.
Matt Van Epps was sworn in the day after he won his race. We can expect a Rep. Fuller today or tomorrow.
FL Sen: PPP poll for Vindman: Moody 43%-Vindman 40%. (574 RVs; 4/2-3).
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/789481-alex-vindman-internal-poll-shows-him-within-striking-distance-of-ashley-moody/
I’d put Florida 7th or 8th on the list of possible flips.
Why the 8th?
Might have Nebraska ahead. If you consider that a flip.
Oh. I misread your initial comment as discussing districts to flip, not states
How would you rank FL, MT, and NE?
FL and NE are 7/8. Stopped at 8.
I agree. Also agree re NE. TX and IA are 5-6. Still, at worst, Vindman seems able to force the R's to spend in FL.
I’d rank the flips like this
1. North Carolina
2. Maine
3. Alaska
4. Texas
5. Ohio
6. Iowa
7. Nebraska
8. Florida
9. Kansas
10. Montana
11. South Carolina
12. Mississippi
13. Kentucky
14. Louisiana
I think we’ll win the first 6 unless things get better for the Republicans between now and the election and 7-10 are also currently in play. 11-14 could flip in a nightmare scenario for Republicans if Trump is dipping into approval in the 20s by November but probably won’t be competitive.
I would put Iowa above Texas. There is a lot more evidence that Iowans are more fed up with Trump than the base of Texas voters.
We're going to have a candidate quality mismatch in our favor in Texas. That will not be the case in Iowa. That's worth a lot by itself.
I disagree. I think both Turek and Wahls are strong candidates, perhaps even better suited for their states than Talarico; they just haven't gotten as much national media attention as Talarico.
On the Republican side, Paxton is sadly liked better by Texas Republicans than we like to admit and conceivably could win. Meanwhile, Hinson is a bit of a paper tiger--milquetoast and ill suited for the moment, although she obviously could win, too.
I think we have good candidates in both states. In my opinion the gap between Hinson and Paxton/Cornyn is yawning. Hinson has shown electoral strength. Paxton has not. Cornyn has, but the MAGA base is not happy with him in a way that makes working with historical data less reliable.
I don't think anything beyond FL is currently in play, and I'd tend to rank FL ahead of NE.
Why wouldn’t Nebraska be in play? It was in play last time around and this will be a much better election cycle
How much was it really in play last time?
It was absolutely in play last time, we only lost it by 6.7 points. We came closer to holding it than we did to holding Montana or flipping Texas. If we think we can flip Texas this year, Nebraska is absolutely at least on the board as a possibility.
does "in play" mean the Dem has a chance at winning? Because true, that is not likely in NE, but the independent Osborn has a much better shot than the Democrat. I would argue its in play.
Your argument is noted. I'm unconvinced.
All I'd contend is that if there is a year for an R to lose in NE, its this year. I don't think the next cycle will be as favorable
My inclination is to agree with you. Even putting FL in play is probably pushing the outer bounds, but our over-performances there are encouraging.
I would put Texas before Alaska. I am not so sure that it switches.
I am not sold on 9, 11, 12, and 14. I don’t see those southern states switching.
I don’t know which of Missouri, South and North Dakota have elections. I know that they are not on anyone’s radar. However, if the farmers get angry enough at Trump, I wonder if any one f those could switch. It wasn’t too long ago that we had democratic senators from there.
I'd like to see a larger pool of voters but not bad.
Moody can't just rely on the larger pool of R voters bailing her out since 9-10% of them are voting for Democrats in the special elections, so she has to work for it.
The swings we've seen so far won't produce a statewide winner in Florida but I think we'll see gains maybe a couple congressional seats, unless republicans gerrymander the hell out of the already gerrymandered seats.
I hope Republicans in the legislature see these special elections and decide to not join the latest round of the redistricting wars. As Trump learned sometimes regarding Iran sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
Good morning! I am also highly invested in the NCSC as a North Carolinian. However, I want to make a plug for two Georgia Supreme Court flip opportunities we have just next month! Please check out Dem-aligned Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin. We could not get a candidate for the third seat, sadly.
Maybe our amazing editors at the Downballot could do a front-page push for them to raise awareness at some point over the next month?
Apparently Jason Carter endorsed one of the Republican justices (Bethel)? Gross.
Doesn't matter. We should still have a big Dem turnout advantage in Georgia in the primaries next month if the previous primary states are any indication. We need to take advantage of that for these court races.
two special elex last night of interest to climate folk in particular.
Port Washington, in the northern Milwaukee suburbs, held a referendum that was effectively a referendum on a proposed data canter. The YES (anti-data center) side won, 66-34, bigger margin than Justice Taylor, which means that the city now has to ask for voter approval before approving data centers. Expect a lot of copycat referenda where possible.
And Arizona's Salt River Project board race went national, with Turning Point on one side and climate folk on the other. Voting here is tied to how much land you own. Long lines last night, results at some point today. SRP is a mini-public utility commission.
This is one area where i think dems could get a foothold where nothing else has worked. Here in Texas i think it would be very wise for Gina Hinojosa to hammer republicans for allowing so many data center to pop up, they are not very popular.
Elliot Morris’s state by state estimate of Trump’s approval rating had him underwater in LA.
Anyone know if Democrats will mount a serious challenge for the seat or if there is an independent candidacy that could make it interesting as in NE and MT?
There are three Democratic candidates running in the primary: Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis.
Plus Jamie LaBranche, a former GOP candidate who filed as a write-in candidate for the general.
I’m not familiar enough with LA politics to know whether any of those candidates are a serious threat.
They aren't, but Davis is the most prominent.
Even in the most optimistic scenarios I doubt that we’d win Louisiana - even if we saw a shift from 2024 on the level of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election across the country that still wouldn’t flip Louisiana - but we absolutely should have a stronger candidate there.
The filing deadline was in February, and despite expressing interest, former Gov. John Bel Edwards declined. The best-case scenario is that Bill Cassidy wins re-nomination, and even then, he's still quite conservative.
Elliot Morris has Trump’s approval rating in Louisana at 45% which is lower than OH and slightly lower than long shots in FL, SC, MT, & NE. Trump’s approval rating in November may be lower than today if only because gas prices seem likely to be elevated all summer.
But actually I think the ideal would be running an independent candidate who is known for excellence outside of politics and runs as a reforming, pragmatic outsider. What about Reece Witherspoon?
I just don’t really believe that, why would Trump’s approval be lower in Louisiana than in Ohio and Florida?
I don’t know.
Could just be polling error? Could be that Cassidy gave LA Republicans permission to break from Trump? Could be that familiarity with corruption makes them more suspicious of conmen?
Some of the best off year and special election results have been in GA and TX. Maybe the south is shifting more than the rest of the country by a few points?
I doubt it is but, if it is, I suspect it's due to LA's large African American population, plus deterioration in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge suburbs.
Affordability. LA is a poor state.
Yeah Louisiana is just gone for Democrats especially since New Orleans has never recovered from its post-Katrina population losses.
It's generally better to look at generic ballot rather than approval (although they are related) for House and Senate races, and while the generic ballot lead is favorable (average of Democrats +5), that isn't going flip anything redder than light red.
News from the North: sir, another MP just crossed the floor. I don't know how I feel about this one, she was on the right of the Conservatives caucus and has some bad views on social issues previously, I hope she will repent of them. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-marilyn-gladu-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7156167
She’s only one MP. Pre-Trudeau the Grits always had an unwieldy big tent and, besides, Carney himself is basically a Red Tory throwback who’d have been completely at home in Joe Clark’s PCs
Agreed, but she voted against the conversion therapy ban and had against Marijuana legalization. One of the things Justin Trudeau did as party leader which I supposed was purging anti-abortion and anti-LQBTQ MPs. I would prefer to keep it that way.
Supported, not supposed
So that means Carney gets his majority regardless of the outcome in Terrebonne, correct?
Impressive persuasion.
Canada: Another floor crosser
The Liberals have picked up another Conservative floor-crosser, bringing them one seat closer to a majority government.
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu announced on Wednesday she is joining the government benches.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-marilyn-gladu-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7156167
Carney has insane rizz.
One more MP crosses and he completes the Infinity Gauntlet.
Carney has that same magic that Emmanuel Macron did during the latter's first term as French President when it looked like the old parties on the center right and center left in France would be swept away by Macron's centrist movement.
Hopefully it works out better for Carney than Macron!
I haven't been following closely, what is Carney doing up there?
Crushing it. He is also reaping a massive political windfall by having Trump/USA craziness provide a reliable foil, and a consistent rallying effect.
Beyond the fact that the contrast to the Shitshow in Washington helps enormously, he’s aided by a one-two of A) the opposition leader being super unpopular and B) being able to deftly thread the needle to doing popular things from the Trudeau era while having ejected, especially stylistically, what made Trudeau so despised by the end
What are the main differences between him and Trudeau?
The best way I would put it is he does not come across as a milquetoast "limousine liberal" the way Trudeau fairly or unfairly did. He is seen as a much more serious technocrat, owing to his time as the head of two central banks and commands a kind of respect Trudeau never did. This is demonstrated by the floor crossings.
"Floor crosser" sounds so much better than "party switcher"
Why would an MP elected as a Conservative flip to the Liberals? Pork?
There's chatter that Pierre Poilievre is not well liked among his caucus colleagues especially with his tight grip control over Conservative messaging that results in backbencher MPs constantly having to read off partisan attacks issued by Poilievre's office during question period when they as backbenchers could be asking questions related to their constituents and leave the attacks to the frontbench.
Piggybacking more off the Elliott Morris post, we obviously already have on our watchlists all the Repubs in districts that Trump won with an margin under 10pts. These are all the members in districts that Trump over 10pts where his RV approval rating is now over 10pts.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07-trump-approval-gop-house-senate-seats
-Darin LaHood (IL-16): Trump 2024 win margin +23 --> Trump 2026 approval margin -10
-Wesley Hunt (TX-38, open seat): +21 --> -12
-Troy Nehls (TX-22, open seat): +20 --> -13
-Monica De La Cruz (TX-15): +18 --> -18
-Tony Gonzales (TX-23, open seat): +16 --> -16
-Beth Van Duyne (TX-24): +16 --> -15
-Brad Knott (NC-13): +16 --> -12
-Abe Hamadeh (AZ-08): +16 --> -10
-Darrell Issa (CA-48, open seat): +15 --> -14
-Nick Begich (AK-AL): +13 --> -12
-Mike Flood (NE-01): +13 --> -10
-John McGuire (VA-05, pending redistricting): +12 --> -11
-Ryan Zinke (MT-01, open seat): +12 --> -10
-Michael Baumgartner (WA-05): +11 --> -17
-Max Miller (OH-07): +11 --> -10
-Nick LaLota (NY-01): +10 --> -13
-Ashley Hinson (IA-02, open seat): +10 --> -12
Yeah, I think De La Cruz loses relatively big. I think that one has the potential to be the biggest swing left from 2024.
20 to 30 point collapses in background support... That is going to be an absolute anchor around their necks.
I'm pleasantly surprised by NY-01. Trump is kind of made for Long Island politics, so although it's swingy, I wouldn't have that he'd be that underwater there. Hopefully we can put it in play.
I’ve heard our candidate Chris Gallant is good.