Early insights showing No doing poorly in NoVA areas with high pops of non-white voters, another ominous sign for the GOP as their 2024 gains with those voters evaporate across the country.
Given Democratic leaning areas tend to be the largest population centres like Fairfax County, Arlington, Richmond, Norfolk etc. that would seem to be a good tradeoff compared to small rural Republican counties, yes?
Right, I guess there is a tipping point to where the small counties can overwhelm the larger ones, I don't know if 96 vs 87 would be there. Looking at 2025, Spanberger won 18 of the 20 largest cities/counties, most by healthy margins.
To be fair, the whole problem is that none of the candidates have shown any grassroots enthusiasm. The CA Dem establishment clearly does not want Steyer -- whether that's for a legitimate reason or just because they want to protect their little pockets of power is not clear to me. I don't think it's an unalloyed good to have a governor who is completely indebted to the establishment -- that's been the case in Oregon for many years, and while recent governors have had some good accomplishments, I also think the quality and cost efficiency of government services degrades if state agencies and their legislative backers are never challenged. But, ultimately I don't know enough about CA state politics to have a firm opinion here...
It certainly reads that way - I remember reading before that Porter wasn't gaining traction because she wasn't a creature of Sacramento. But if you consider some of the criticism leveled against CA, particularly regarding housing, it might seem like a poor idea to align with the status quo. This isn't a Jesse Ventura situation when he had no members of his party in the state legislature.
I think if Steyer was a multimillionaire (even close to $1B) instead of a multibillionaire, there would be significantly less voter queasiness over him and he'd run away with the nomination.
That finally puts my finger on my Steyer problem - "would he just be constantly in fights with the Legislature?" Without experience in government, hard to tell. Again, not to say the CA legislature is perfect, but I believe it's better for governance and the Party in general if relations are cordial and productive.
I guess we’ll see in a couple hours. I’m expecting this to be a lot of hubbub about nothing in the end. Nothing in the Trump 2.0 era suggests Republicans/No should come close to winning this.
We have a whole abundance of evidence of what is/was likely to happen based on most special elections in the Trump 2.0 era. Agree to disagree. Much ado about nothing. There’s a reason the guy keeps spamming for donation requests on Twitter.
I don't think there's a single person that decided to vote because they saw Chaz' tweets panicking about turnout. Ergo, everyone who is voting now was almost certainly already going to. I don't see how doomer livetweeting hour by hour is beneficial to anyone except maybe traffic to Chaz' website.
I think Chaz can skid over his skis when he tries to project out his models to other states (and usually ignore him for those), but I think he's very very good when it comes to Virginia.
With the caveat that e-day anecdotes can't always be trusted, if we do lose the VA vote today, it's because Dems fumbled the messaging (and are bringing down Spanberger in the process). The state is obv Democratic, but it's filled with "good government" Dems (i.e. folks that work in the federal government and like to see it work how it was supposed to). They care what ed boards think. They seem themselves as fair-minded, not like the extremist GOP. 'Yes' is clearly going to lose a not-insignificant nubmer of strong Spanberger voters.
Louise Lucas' taunting tweets epitomize where the effort went wrong -- it wasn't about pushing back against Trump, it was about sticking it to Republicans broadly and giving Dems all the power they want. Not a good message for NOVA. I still think it passes, but if it happens to lose, she and others will have major egg on their faces.
Agree, and point taken - mine was meant to express that accepting corrupt PAC money says a great deal about the moral compass and the candidate’s ability to be compromised when addressing the needs of the people.
On the flip side, her not taking that money may convince leftier voters into backing her, even if it isn’t technically relevant to the race. People vote for weird reasons sometimes.
I wrote a deep dive on IA-03 over the weekend. I would rate this race as tilt D. JD Vance is coming to do an event with Zach Nunn, which would be the last thing I'd want if I were a Republican. I would guess they are worried about base turnout.
I heard months ago that Brenna Bird started running positive bio ads out of nowhere, probably in response to bad private polling. Doesn't seem to be slowing down.
She didn't run them--an outside group ran them to boost her favorables. Then they published partial results from their polling, which purportedly showed their ad campaign improved her numbers. They were still terrible, though!
It's all within the margin of error anyway, so nothing to be alarmed about. While it's always nice to see our candidates up, I won't be alarmed until we see him down 4+ points consistently.
KY-Gov: Lt. Gov Coleman (no relation to AG Russell Coleman) will be the first sitting Lt. Governor to run for Governor since Lt. Governor stopped being a separately elected office.
I hadn't noticed Pinkins was pulling 6% in the MS Sen race in that Hyde-Smith/Colom poll. Would imagine if he pulled out that enough of them would move toward Colom to put him on top... (Still 14% undecideds though.)
A minor correction: Betty Yee, who is now a former candidate for CA-Gov, was previously California's Controller, not Comptroller. While those might be two variations on the name of the same office, in California we have someone controlling the flow of state finances. Nobody is in Comptrol, really!
Hey, at least we don't have prothonotaries in California...
You're welcome and thank you, too. We don't want to have a gang war between the Controllers and Comptrollers here. "Boring Betty" (a self-description) would kick some comptroller butt.
Were I a betting man, I’d wager the House Dem caucus exceeds 230.
I would not be entirely surprised to see it exceed 250.
They're probably correct, but DDHQ has made premature/wrong calls too often in the past for me to put any special weight on them making a call.
AP just called it too.
Unless the VA Supreme Court nixes it.
74% in, within 35,k
Henrico 62%, Faifax 29%, Richmond City 38%.
+4 over Harris’s margin.
Early insights showing No doing poorly in NoVA areas with high pops of non-white voters, another ominous sign for the GOP as their 2024 gains with those voters evaporate across the country.
Here the process will formally begin Nov. 3, 2026!
Not really, because congress can't dismiss appointees in the same was the president can.
Given Democratic leaning areas tend to be the largest population centres like Fairfax County, Arlington, Richmond, Norfolk etc. that would seem to be a good tradeoff compared to small rural Republican counties, yes?
Right, I guess there is a tipping point to where the small counties can overwhelm the larger ones, I don't know if 96 vs 87 would be there. Looking at 2025, Spanberger won 18 of the 20 largest cities/counties, most by healthy margins.
To be fair, the whole problem is that none of the candidates have shown any grassroots enthusiasm. The CA Dem establishment clearly does not want Steyer -- whether that's for a legitimate reason or just because they want to protect their little pockets of power is not clear to me. I don't think it's an unalloyed good to have a governor who is completely indebted to the establishment -- that's been the case in Oregon for many years, and while recent governors have had some good accomplishments, I also think the quality and cost efficiency of government services degrades if state agencies and their legislative backers are never challenged. But, ultimately I don't know enough about CA state politics to have a firm opinion here...
It certainly reads that way - I remember reading before that Porter wasn't gaining traction because she wasn't a creature of Sacramento. But if you consider some of the criticism leveled against CA, particularly regarding housing, it might seem like a poor idea to align with the status quo. This isn't a Jesse Ventura situation when he had no members of his party in the state legislature.
I think if Steyer was a multimillionaire (even close to $1B) instead of a multibillionaire, there would be significantly less voter queasiness over him and he'd run away with the nomination.
That finally puts my finger on my Steyer problem - "would he just be constantly in fights with the Legislature?" Without experience in government, hard to tell. Again, not to say the CA legislature is perfect, but I believe it's better for governance and the Party in general if relations are cordial and productive.
Honestly, I don't care who the Dem nominee is at this point - just choose someone and get behind them and let's put this lockout nonsense to bed.
This guy is essentially just click baiting to get donations for his website. This referendum was never really in doubt.
I guess we’ll see in a couple hours. I’m expecting this to be a lot of hubbub about nothing in the end. Nothing in the Trump 2.0 era suggests Republicans/No should come close to winning this.
We have a whole abundance of evidence of what is/was likely to happen based on most special elections in the Trump 2.0 era. Agree to disagree. Much ado about nothing. There’s a reason the guy keeps spamming for donation requests on Twitter.
yeah, Chaz strikes me as honest, and his VA stuff was dead-on for 2025
and 23
I don't think there's a single person that decided to vote because they saw Chaz' tweets panicking about turnout. Ergo, everyone who is voting now was almost certainly already going to. I don't see how doomer livetweeting hour by hour is beneficial to anyone except maybe traffic to Chaz' website.
Turnout reports help nothing except anxiety. I'd rather know nothing until the actual votes start coming in.
Turnout data has been responsible for more wet sheets than all the world's hurricanes combined!
I think Chaz can skid over his skis when he tries to project out his models to other states (and usually ignore him for those), but I think he's very very good when it comes to Virginia.
Current odds now that Yes wins as we get later in the day ? And by what % ?
With the caveat that e-day anecdotes can't always be trusted, if we do lose the VA vote today, it's because Dems fumbled the messaging (and are bringing down Spanberger in the process). The state is obv Democratic, but it's filled with "good government" Dems (i.e. folks that work in the federal government and like to see it work how it was supposed to). They care what ed boards think. They seem themselves as fair-minded, not like the extremist GOP. 'Yes' is clearly going to lose a not-insignificant nubmer of strong Spanberger voters.
Louise Lucas' taunting tweets epitomize where the effort went wrong -- it wasn't about pushing back against Trump, it was about sticking it to Republicans broadly and giving Dems all the power they want. Not a good message for NOVA. I still think it passes, but if it happens to lose, she and others will have major egg on their faces.
And I imagine RDS will not schedule a special election. At least now I won't have to struggle to remember if it's "Cherlifus" or "Cherfilus"
Can't the FL Democratic Party sue to get a special election?
Manley could be sworn in before January and gain some seniority, however
Assuming it’s him. An open seat may draw a bigger name.
West Palm Beach mayor Kevin James and Palm Beach County commissioner Bobby Powell are reportedly considering, as well as some other local Palm Beach County officials. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/766930-calls-mounting-for-sheila-cherfilus-mccormick-to-resign-speculation-about-who-could-replace-her-is-already-heating-up/
I would still give it to Manley, based on his support and fundraising already achieved.
My mistake was always "Cherflius" lol
Stray clear of discussing Israel. I think talking about the PAC is ok.
Agree, and point taken - mine was meant to express that accepting corrupt PAC money says a great deal about the moral compass and the candidate’s ability to be compromised when addressing the needs of the people.
Not all PACs are corrupt. That also holds true for some PACs that you may dislike intensely.
Still, I would like to see PAC influence in elections dwindle if not leave completely. Citizens United needs to be overturned.
Hear, hear!
This is a gubernatorial race. You’d think there’d be so many other domestic issues for people to focus on instead of that.
Not to mention trying to do all that while having to deal with the KY General Ass-embly.
There is a portion of the base that wants nothing more than to fight over the forbidden issue.
On the flip side, her not taking that money may convince leftier voters into backing her, even if it isn’t technically relevant to the race. People vote for weird reasons sometimes.
When it comes to deciding who to vote for in May 2027, that's ... not going to be high on my list of priorities.
I wrote a deep dive on IA-03 over the weekend. I would rate this race as tilt D. JD Vance is coming to do an event with Zach Nunn, which would be the last thing I'd want if I were a Republican. I would guess they are worried about base turnout.
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/zach-nunn-is-in-troubleand-jd-vance
I heard months ago that Brenna Bird started running positive bio ads out of nowhere, probably in response to bad private polling. Doesn't seem to be slowing down.
She didn't run them--an outside group ran them to boost her favorables. Then they published partial results from their polling, which purportedly showed their ad campaign improved her numbers. They were still terrible, though!
I wrote about this in November:
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/conservative-group-attempted-image
That’s a great read! Very informative.
CA-Gov: If Becerra was elected, he'd be the first Hispanic governor of the state, right?
First elected, not first serving. Gov. Romualdo Pacheco served part of a term in 1875 after being elected as LG.
First since the 1870s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romualdo_Pacheco
Pacheco served as governor about 130 years ago. He is the only non-white governor of California.
If Porter is elected, she'd be the first woman Governor of California.
For an allegedly progressive state with egalitarian ideals, California has had a shockingly non-diverse history of Governors.
Hey now, Pete Wilson once put dimes in his penny loafers as a joke - now that’s a diversity of comedy!
Husted jumped Brown? Any other recent polls for OH ?
That poll modeled a Trump +11 recalled vote (i.e. nearly the same as 2024), which is unlikely to be duplicated.
It's all within the margin of error anyway, so nothing to be alarmed about. While it's always nice to see our candidates up, I won't be alarmed until we see him down 4+ points consistently.
Was it an R pollster showing Brown down 7pt?
KY-Gov: Lt. Gov Coleman (no relation to AG Russell Coleman) will be the first sitting Lt. Governor to run for Governor since Lt. Governor stopped being a separately elected office.
The more I think of this statistic the less surprised I am by it
I hadn't noticed Pinkins was pulling 6% in the MS Sen race in that Hyde-Smith/Colom poll. Would imagine if he pulled out that enough of them would move toward Colom to put him on top... (Still 14% undecideds though.)
A minor correction: Betty Yee, who is now a former candidate for CA-Gov, was previously California's Controller, not Comptroller. While those might be two variations on the name of the same office, in California we have someone controlling the flow of state finances. Nobody is in Comptrol, really!
Hey, at least we don't have prothonotaries in California...
Patriots in Comptrol
Thank you! I've corrected
You're welcome and thank you, too. We don't want to have a gang war between the Controllers and Comptrollers here. "Boring Betty" (a self-description) would kick some comptroller butt.