Agree, and point taken - mine was meant to express that accepting corrupt PAC money says a great deal about the moral compass and the candidate’s ability to be compromised when addressing the needs of the people.
Exactly. If AIPAC is really someone's biggest issue, rather than reducing inflation, lowering the cost of health care, protecting the environment, ensuring high-quality education, protecting and expanding workers' rights, regulating AI, protecting our democracy and standing up to Trump, ending cooperation with ICE, etc... then frankly there's something terribly wrong with them.
On the flip side, her not taking that money may convince leftier voters into backing her, even if it isn’t technically relevant to the race. People vote for weird reasons sometimes.
I wrote a deep dive on IA-03 over the weekend. I would rate this race as tilt D. JD Vance is coming to do an event with Zach Nunn, which would be the last thing I'd want if I were a Republican. I would guess they are worried about base turnout.
I heard months ago that Brenna Bird started running positive bio ads out of nowhere, probably in response to bad private polling. Doesn't seem to be slowing down.
She didn't run them--an outside group ran them to boost her favorables. Then they published partial results from their polling, which purportedly showed their ad campaign improved her numbers. They were still terrible, though!
It's all within the margin of error anyway, so nothing to be alarmed about. While it's always nice to see our candidates up, I won't be alarmed until we see him down 4+ points consistently.
KY-Gov: Lt. Gov Coleman (no relation to AG Russell Coleman) will be the first sitting Lt. Governor to run for Governor since Lt. Governor stopped being a separately elected office.
I hadn't noticed Pinkins was pulling 6% in the MS Sen race in that Hyde-Smith/Colom poll. Would imagine if he pulled out that enough of them would move toward Colom to put him on top... (Still 14% undecideds though.)
A minor correction: Betty Yee, who is now a former candidate for CA-Gov, was previously California's Controller, not Comptroller. While those might be two variations on the name of the same office, in California we have someone controlling the flow of state finances. Nobody is in Comptrol, really!
Hey, at least we don't have prothonotaries in California...
You're welcome and thank you, too. We don't want to have a gang war between the Controllers and Comptrollers here. "Boring Betty" (a self-description) would kick some comptroller butt.
Those old posts by Bob Brooks are pretty interesting considering he is running as the Progressive candidate. They sound like the kinda stuff my 65-year old GOP dad posts on Facebook lol. Although they were from 2019 and I have gone from Right-leaning centrist to leftist Progressive since 2019 so I suppose Brooks could’ve done the same
Yup, the social media/text/statement scandals are now entirely a thing of the past in American politics, barring extraordinary circumstances (looking at Mark Robinson the proud black Nazi). Voters don’t care anymore. Whether that’s actually a good thing, I have my doubts, but it’s the reality in today’s voting electorate.
Trying to imagine the mass collective shrug by voters and the media if Mitt Romney made the 47% comment today, instead of it pretty much ending his presidential campaign a decade ago.
It’s in play, but likely will be hard to flip because it’s really easy for us to get 46% in Mississippi and near impossible to get that last few percent to get to 50%.
Great efforts in GOTV can make up that difference. We just have to make sure that the turnout for our voters is, say, 10 percent greater than for GOP-MAGA.
Yesterday I said I didn’t think we’d win a 1 on 1 federal race for a whole list of reasons in MS. I forgot there was an independent left candidate running in the race also. Unless Pinkins drops out, there’s no scenario we win here unfortunately, not even in a mega tsunami blue wave election. If the left splits in such an already extremely hostile, extremely polarized, extremely inelastic state for our party, that 1-5% chance of something crazy happening evaporates entirely.
The last few % are massive gulf to cross. You'd need historically high black turnout, cratering GOP turnout, and some sort of candidate implosion a la Roy Moore to happen. Even then, it would be an uphill climb.
Purely vibes based but all these numbers feel… more or less plausible to me? Especially Florida not being that rosy for Ds makes me feel good about the rest of the poll’s methodology
Stray clear of discussing Israel. I think talking about the PAC is ok.
Agree, and point taken - mine was meant to express that accepting corrupt PAC money says a great deal about the moral compass and the candidate’s ability to be compromised when addressing the needs of the people.
Not all PACs are corrupt. That also holds true for some PACs that you may dislike intensely.
This is a gubernatorial race. You’d think there’d be so many other domestic issues for people to focus on instead of that.
Exactly. If AIPAC is really someone's biggest issue, rather than reducing inflation, lowering the cost of health care, protecting the environment, ensuring high-quality education, protecting and expanding workers' rights, regulating AI, protecting our democracy and standing up to Trump, ending cooperation with ICE, etc... then frankly there's something terribly wrong with them.
Not to mention trying to do all that while having to deal with the KY General Ass-embly.
There is a portion of the base that wants nothing more than to fight over the forbidden issue.
On the flip side, her not taking that money may convince leftier voters into backing her, even if it isn’t technically relevant to the race. People vote for weird reasons sometimes.
When it comes to deciding who to vote for in May 2027, that's ... not going to be high on my list of priorities.
I wrote a deep dive on IA-03 over the weekend. I would rate this race as tilt D. JD Vance is coming to do an event with Zach Nunn, which would be the last thing I'd want if I were a Republican. I would guess they are worried about base turnout.
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/zach-nunn-is-in-troubleand-jd-vance
I heard months ago that Brenna Bird started running positive bio ads out of nowhere, probably in response to bad private polling. Doesn't seem to be slowing down.
She didn't run them--an outside group ran them to boost her favorables. Then they published partial results from their polling, which purportedly showed their ad campaign improved her numbers. They were still terrible, though!
I wrote about this in November:
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/conservative-group-attempted-image
That’s a great read! Very informative.
CA-Gov: If Becerra was elected, he'd be the first Hispanic governor of the state, right?
First elected, not first serving. Gov. Romualdo Pacheco served part of a term in 1875 after being elected as LG.
First since the 1870s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romualdo_Pacheco
Husted jumped Brown? Any other recent polls for OH ?
That poll modeled a Trump +11 recalled vote (i.e. nearly the same as 2024), which is unlikely to be duplicated.
Modeling a future electorate based on recalled votes is kinda like driving on the rear view mirror. Lol.
Anyway it doesn’t mean a similar electorate will support Trump at 11pt today.
Exactly.
It's all within the margin of error anyway, so nothing to be alarmed about. While it's always nice to see our candidates up, I won't be alarmed until we see him down 4+ points consistently.
Was it an R pollster showing Brown down 7pt?
KY-Gov: Lt. Gov Coleman (no relation to AG Russell Coleman) will be the first sitting Lt. Governor to run for Governor since Lt. Governor stopped being a separately elected office.
The more I think of this statistic the less surprised I am by it
I hadn't noticed Pinkins was pulling 6% in the MS Sen race in that Hyde-Smith/Colom poll. Would imagine if he pulled out that enough of them would move toward Colom to put him on top... (Still 14% undecideds though.)
A minor correction: Betty Yee, who is now a former candidate for CA-Gov, was previously California's Controller, not Comptroller. While those might be two variations on the name of the same office, in California we have someone controlling the flow of state finances. Nobody is in Comptrol, really!
Hey, at least we don't have prothonotaries in California...
Patriots in Comptrol
Thank you! I've corrected
You're welcome and thank you, too. We don't want to have a gang war between the Controllers and Comptrollers here. "Boring Betty" (a self-description) would kick some comptroller butt.
Those old posts by Bob Brooks are pretty interesting considering he is running as the Progressive candidate. They sound like the kinda stuff my 65-year old GOP dad posts on Facebook lol. Although they were from 2019 and I have gone from Right-leaning centrist to leftist Progressive since 2019 so I suppose Brooks could’ve done the same
I don’t think it will matter in the general. It hasn’t for Graham Platner if polling is to be believed.
Yup, the social media/text/statement scandals are now entirely a thing of the past in American politics, barring extraordinary circumstances (looking at Mark Robinson the proud black Nazi). Voters don’t care anymore. Whether that’s actually a good thing, I have my doubts, but it’s the reality in today’s voting electorate.
Trying to imagine the mass collective shrug by voters and the media if Mitt Romney made the 47% comment today, instead of it pretty much ending his presidential campaign a decade ago.
Yeah, I don’t care about these posts. He was able to win the support of both Shapiro and other progressive orgs. That’s enough for me.
I mean, we keep being told that moderate to conservative social/cultural and progressive on economics is the way forward...
Does the poll showing Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Scott Colom by only 3 points mean that the Mississippi Senate seat is really in play?
It’s in play, but likely will be hard to flip because it’s really easy for us to get 46% in Mississippi and near impossible to get that last few percent to get to 50%.
Great efforts in GOTV can make up that difference. We just have to make sure that the turnout for our voters is, say, 10 percent greater than for GOP-MAGA.
Yesterday I said I didn’t think we’d win a 1 on 1 federal race for a whole list of reasons in MS. I forgot there was an independent left candidate running in the race also. Unless Pinkins drops out, there’s no scenario we win here unfortunately, not even in a mega tsunami blue wave election. If the left splits in such an already extremely hostile, extremely polarized, extremely inelastic state for our party, that 1-5% chance of something crazy happening evaporates entirely.
The last few % are massive gulf to cross. You'd need historically high black turnout, cratering GOP turnout, and some sort of candidate implosion a la Roy Moore to happen. Even then, it would be an uphill climb.
💃💃💃💃💃
FL-7:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nancy-mace-introduces-resolution-expel-republican-cory-mills-house-rcna341122
Rep. Nancy Mace has introduced a resolution to expel Rep. Cory Mills. We’ll see where this goes.
https://x.com/i/status/2046566435942477982
SENATE POLLING By Echelon Insights (A)
GEORGIA
🟦 Ossoff: 51%
🟥 Collins: 44%
---
🟦 Ossoff: 52%
🟥 Carter: 43%
——
FLORIDA
🟥 Moody: 50%
🟦 Vindman: 43%
——
MAINE
🟦 Platner: 51%
🟥 Collins: 45%
---
🟦 Mills: 48%
🟥 Collins: 46%
——
IOWA
🟦 Walls: 46%
🟥 Hinson: 44%
🟦 Turek: 46%
🟥 Hinson: 45%
for Net Choice | 4/3-9 | LV (avg +/- 6%)
Is that the first polled general election senate lead for us in Iowa?
Looks like it!
Purely vibes based but all these numbers feel… more or less plausible to me? Especially Florida not being that rosy for Ds makes me feel good about the rest of the poll’s methodology
Others
Governor
🟦 Rob Sand: 51%
🟥 Randy Feenstra: 39%
Ohio:
🟥Vivek Ramaswamy 49%
🟦Amy Acton 44%
——
Georgia:
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 49%
🟥Burt Jones 43%
—
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 49%
🟥Rick Jackson 43%
—
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 46%
🟥Brad Raffensperger 44%
Ohio:
🟥Jon Husted 51% (incumbent)
🟦Sherrod Brown 45%
6% MOE, so be a bit skeptical.
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/21/sheila-cherfilus-mccormick-democrats-ethics-expel
FL-20: We could see a Cherfilus-McCormick expulsion as early as today.