Morning Digest: John Carney wants to be America's first sitting governor elected as mayor

And some very hostile Democratic primaries finally come to an end

Delaware Gov. John Carney (right) is on the primary ballot today for mayor of Wilmington (Credit: Delaware State House of Representatives - Republican Caucus)

Leading Off

Primary Night

The 2024 primary season concludes tonight, and for the last time this cycle, Jeff Singer previews the key nomination contests to watch. Much of the action will be in New Hampshire, where Democrats will finally resolve some nasty primaries for governor and the open 2nd Congressional District, but Delaware will also play host to a pair of unusual races.

Three prominent Democrats are competing to succeed termed-out Delaware Gov. John Carney in a state where contested Democratic primaries for chief executive have been few and far between. Prior to the 21st century, the last such occasion came about in 1984, when former state Supreme Court Justice William Quillen defeated former Gov. Sherman Tribbitt, though he was rewarded with a double-digit loss to Republican Mike Castle in the general election. (Quillen's daughter, Tracey Carney, is Delaware's current first lady.)

Democrats didn't have a serious fight again until 2008, when John Carney, who was lieutenant governor at the time, competed against state Treasurer Jack Markell for the right to succeed termed-out incumbent Ruth Ann Minner. Markell pulled off a surprise 51-49 victory after an expensive contest, while Carney returned to statewide office two years later by winning the state's lone U.S. House seat. (Castle left to wage a Senate bid that same year that ended with an upset loss in the primary against the soon-to-be infamous Christine O'Donnell.)

Delaware politicos expected former Attorney General Beau Biden to succeed Markell, but things instead went into a holding pattern after Biden died in 2015 following a battle with brain cancer. Carney eventually sought the governorship once more, this time earning the nomination without opposition ahead of two easy general election victories.

Carney isn't ready to end his long career in electoral politics yet, though, as he's also competing in tonight's Democratic primary for mayor of Wilmington against former city Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter. And Carney appears to have already made history just by running: As far as The Downballot can determine, he's the first sitting American governor—albeit a termed-out one—to run for mayor anywhere.

A few former state executives have sought to lead various cities, but only after leaving the governorship. Most notably, Jerry Brown claimed the mayor's office in Oakland in 1998, which proved to be just a little past the midpoint of the 28 years separating his two stints as governor of California. Hawaii Democrat Ben Cayetano, who left office in 2002, wasn't so lucky: Cayetano decisively lost the 2012 race for mayor of Honolulu to fellow Democrat Kirk Caldwell after a contest that focused on Cayetano's opposition to the still-controversial multi-billion dollar ​​Honolulu Rail Transit Project.

No matter how things go for Carney tonight, though, we won't need to wait long to see another one-time governor campaign for mayor of his hometown. Democrat Jim McGreevey is currently competing in next year's race to lead Jersey City, a bid that comes two decades after he resigned as governor of New Jersey.

Senate

PA-Sen

Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick and his allies enjoy a wide advantage in ad reservations over Democratic Sen. Bob Casey for the final two months of the election, with Republicans chalking up a $101 million to $64 million edge on the airwaves. That's the largest such advantage for any Senate candidate in the nation, reports CNN, though until now, the two parties had spent comparable sums.

The source of most of this pro-McCormick advertising is a super PAC called Keystone Renewal that's funded in part by two conservative megadonors, Ken Griffin and Paul Singer. The wealthy McCormick also told CNN he plans to do more self-funding, saying, "I expect to continue to be an investor, and I believe in me. So I'm investing in me."

Governors

NC-Gov

North Carolina Democrat Josh Stein and his backers hold a hefty $16 million to $1 million edge in ad reservations over Republican Mark Robinson's side for the remaining eight weeks of the race for governor, NOTUS' Calen Razor reports.

Two polls released Monday also find Robinson continuing to run far behind the top of the ticket. The Canadian firm Mainstreet Research's survey for Florida Atlantic University showed Stein ahead 50-39 even as respondents narrowly favor Donald Trump 48-47. Quinnipiac University likewise finds the Democrat with a similar 51-41 advantage, though it shows Kamala Harris with a 49-46 edge.

The far-right Robinson hasn't led in a single publicly released poll since June, and one of his former primary foes, Bill Graham, isn't waiting for Election Day to start the recriminations.

"I said this would happen over and over again, and so I don't know why it's a surprise to people," Graham tells Razor. "He can't moderate his positions now because, at this point, the average voter has a decidedly set opinion about him. And the hits keep coming."

UT-Gov

The Utah Debate Commission has released a survey from Lighthouse Research that shows Republican Gov. Spencer Cox outpacing Democrat Brian King 48-27, while just 4% of respondents say they'd write in GOP state Rep. Phil Lyman's name on their general election ballot. As a result, Lyman won't be invited to the commission's Wednesday debate, since he fell short of the 6% support necessary to participate.

That's still the case even if the commission were to include respondents who said they'd select "Lyman" in a race when there are now two other write-in candidates with that same surname. Lyman accused Cox of recruiting those two candidates, Richard Lyman and Carol Lyman, a charge the governor's campaign called "blatantly false," according to the Desert News' Brigham Tomco.

House

Independent Expenditures

With Election Day less than two months away, outside spending in House races is revving up, as the latest update to our tracker shows.

The four largest groups—the DCCC and House Majority PAC for Democrats, and the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans—collectively spent almost $7 million on targeted races in the last week, more than double the total of the previous week.

So far, though, Democrats have a steep advantage: They've spent more than $8.5 million on the general election while Republicans have spent just over $1 million. Those numbers will skyrocket as we approach November, and the gap will close.

But you can expect Democrats to retain a financial advantage the whole way, since they've raised far more—$360 million, compared to $304 million for the GOP—and had more cash stockpiled at the end of July: $197 million versus $184 million.

All told, the four organizations have now spent at least some money in 21 different districts—though that figure will soon grow, too—with 10 of those seeing an outside infusion for the first time over the past week. (The new districts are marked in bold on our summary tab.)

Thanks to sizable outlays from Democrats, two incumbents have already seen more than $1 million spent on their races: Rep. Brandon Williams in New York's Syracuse-based 22nd District, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House, and Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio's Toledo-area 9th District, who's one of the most at-risk Democrats.

The heaviest GOP spending to date has been in Alaska, where the NRCC has deployed just over $300,000 to target Rep. Mary Peltola, who represents the reddest House seat held by a Democrat. The committee's foray is notable because its preferred candidate, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, recently dropped out after a disappointing third-place showing in last month's top-four primary. That's left Republicans with businessman Nick Begich, who lost to Peltola twice in 2022.

Ballot Measures

UT Ballot

Redistricting reformers filed a lawsuit in state court late last week to try to keep a proposed constitutional amendment devised by the GOP-run legislature from appearing on the November ballot.

Attorneys for the plaintiffs argue that the ballot summary written by legislative leaders "not only will fail to inform voters that the proposed amendment eliminates their fundamental constitutional right, but brazenly asserts that the amendment would 'strengthen' the initiative process."

The measure in question, which is known as Amendment D, would explicitly allow lawmakers to amend or repeal voter-approved initiatives, including a 2018 measure that could put an end to partisan gerrymandering. The amendment also contains a separate provision that would bar foreign entities from contributing money to state initiative campaigns, something that state Senate President Stuart Adams acknowledged isn't actually a problem in Utah elections.

Adams and his counterpart in the lower chamber, House Speaker Mike Schultz, also took advantage of a law they passed earlier this year that gives them, rather nonpartisan legislative staff, the ability to craft summary language. Their summary language for Amendment D asks voters if they'd like to "strengthen the initiative process by[] [p]rohibiting foreign influence on ballot initiatives and referendums" and "clarify[] the voters and legislative bodies' ability to amend laws."

Reformers have changed that Republicans are engaging in "Orwellian doublespeak" that violates the state constitution.

"The government cannot submit a false description of an amendment to voters," said attorney Mark Gaber in a statement. "It violates voters' right to free elections, free speech, the right to vote and to have a free government." Plaintiffs also say that Republicans failed to comply with a constitutional requirement to publish their proposed changes to the state constitution ahead of time.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Elissa Slotkin (D): 48, Mike Rogers (R): 41 (50-49 Harris)

• PA-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 41 (50-50 presidential tie) (April: 46-39 Casey)

• WI-Sen: BK Strategies (R) for Platform Communications: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (48-45 Harris)

• WI-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Hovde (R): 43 (51-49 Harris) (April: 48-41 Baldwin)

Ad Roundup

• FL-Sen: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - anti-Rick Scott (R-inc) (in Spanish); Project Rescue America - anti-Mucarsel-Powell ($1 million buy)

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R); Sheehy - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R)

• WI-Sen: Fix Washington PAC - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)

• WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D) - anti-Dave Reichert (R)

• AK-AL: NRCC - anti-Mary Peltola (D-inc)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D)

• CO-03: Adam Frisch (D)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)

• MI-07: Tom Barrett (R)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc)

• PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D-inc)

• FL Ballot: Vote No on 3 - anti-marijuana legalization